The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics

Ecologists are increasingly aware of the importance of environmental variability in natural systems. Climate change is affecting both the mean and the variability in weather and, in particular, the effect of changes in variability is poorly understood. Organisms are subject to selection imposed by both the mean and the range of environmental variation experienced by their ancestors. Changes in the variability in a critical environmental factor may therefore have consequences for vital rates and population dynamics. Here, we examine ≥90‐year trends in different components of climate (precipitation mean and coefficient of variation (CV); temperature mean, seasonal amplitude and residual variance) and consider the effects of these components on survival and recruitment in a population of Eurasian beavers (n = 242) over 13 recent years. Within climatic data, no trends in precipitation were detected, but trends in all components of temperature were observed, with mean and residual variance increasing and seasonal amplitude decreasing over time. A higher survival rate was linked (in order of influence based on Akaike weights) to lower precipitation CV (kits, juveniles and dominant adults), lower residual variance of temperature (dominant adults) and lower mean precipitation (kits and juveniles). No significant effects were found on the survival of nondominant adults, although the sample size for this category was low. Greater recruitment was linked (in order of influence) to higher seasonal amplitude of temperature, lower mean precipitation, lower residual variance in temperature and higher precipitation CV. Both climate means and variance, thus proved significant to population dynamics; although, overall, components describing variance were more influential than those describing mean values. That environmental variation proves significant to a generalist, wide‐ranging species, at the slow end of the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, has broad implications for population regulation and the evolution of life histories.     

Are badgers ‘Under The Weather’? Direct and indirect impacts of climate variation on European badger (Meles meles) population dynamics

Weather conditions, and how they in turn define and characterize regional climatic conditions, are a primary limit on global species diversity and distribution, and increasing variability in global and regional climates have significant implications for species and habitat conservation. A Capture–Mark–Recapture study revealed that badger (Meles meles) life history parameters interact in complicated ways with annual variability in the seasonality of temperature and rainfall, both in absolute and in phenological terms. A strong predictive relationship was observed between survival and both temperature and late‐summer rainfall. This link at the population dynamics level was related to individual body‐weight increases observed between summer and autumn. In addition, fecundity was correlated with spring rainfall and temperature. We investigated and confirmed that relationships were consistent with observed variation in the intensity of a parasitic infection. Finally, fecundity during any given year correlated with conditions in the preceding autumn. Badger survival also correlated with late winter weather conditions. This period is critical for badgers insofar as it coincides with their peak involvement in road traffic accidents (RTAs). RTA rate during this period was linked strongly to temperature, underlining the intricate ways in which a changing climate might interact with anthropogenic agents to influence species' population processes. Equinoctial conditions produced significant population driver effects. That is, while summers will always be relatively warm compared with winters, spring and autumn weather can be more variable and functionally delimit the ‘productive’ vs. nonproductive period of the year in terms of badger behavioural and physiological cycles. This study highlights how appropriately informed conservation strategies, mindful of trends in climatic conditions, will become ever‐more essential to ensure the survival of many species globally.     

Inter-annual variability of seed rain and seedling establishment of two woody Mediterranean species under field-induced drought and warming

We aimed to assess the impact of warmer and drier climate change conditions on the seed rain and seedling establishment of Globularia alypum L. and Erica multiflora L., two dominant species in Western coastal Mediterranean shrublands. We performed a non-intrusive field experiment in which we increased the night-time temperatures and excluded spring and autumn rainfall. We monitored the seed rain over 5 years and the seedling recruitment over 9 years on these experimental plots. Seed rain of E. multiflora was enhanced by warming treatment in relation to control, and higher annual rainfall, while seed rain of G. alypum was increased by drought treatment in relation to control, dry years and higher minimum annual temperature. Annual rainfall enhanced the seedling emergence of both species, which also positively correlated with annual mean temperatures. Drought treatment significantly decreased seedling emergence for both species, which was higher in open areas than below vegetation cover. The seedling survival of both species diminished at closer distances to competing neighbours, and in G. alypum seedling survival was higher with lower annual mean temperatures and higher annual rainfall, but also in drought treatment, which have experienced vegetation cover decline. The study confirms that the increasing aridity in Mediterranean ecosystems would constrain the early stages of development in typical co-occurring shrubs. However, there are contrasting responses to climatic conditions between species recruitment, which might favour changes in vegetation through modification of species relative abundance.     

Effects of climate variability on the demography of wild geladas

Nonhuman primates are an essential part of tropical biodiversity and play key roles in many ecosystem functions, processes, and services. However, the impact of climate variability on nonhuman primates, whether anthropogenic or otherwise, remains poorly understood. In this study, we utilized age‐structured matrix population models to assess the population viability and demographic variability of a population of geladas (Theropithecus gelada) in the Simien Mountains, Ethiopia with the aim of revealing any underlying climatic influences. Using data from 2008 to 2019 we calculated annual, time‐averaged, and stochastic population growth rates (λ) and investigated relationships between vital rate variability and monthly cumulative rainfall and mean temperature. Our results showed that under the prevailing environmental conditions, the population will increase (λ _s = 1.021). Significant effects from rainfall and/or temperature variability were widely detected across vital rates; only the first year of infant survival and the individual years of juvenile survival were definitively unaffected. Generally, the higher temperature in the hot‐dry season led to lower survival and higher fecundity, while higher rainfall in the hot‐dry season led to increased survival and fecundity. Overall, these results provide evidence of greater effects of climate variability across a wider range of vital rates than those found in previous primate demography studies. This highlights that although primates have often shown substantial resilience to the direct effects of climate change, their vulnerability may vary with habitat type and across populations.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

Extreme climatic events drive mammal irruptions: regression analysis of 100‐year trends in desert rainfall and temperature

Extreme climatic events, such as flooding rains, extended decadal droughts and heat waves have been identified increasingly as important regulators of natural populations. Climate models predict that global warming will drive changes in rainfall and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events. Consequently, to anticipate how organisms will respond we need to document how changes in extremes of temperature and rainfall compare to trends in the mean values of these variables and over what spatial scales the patterns are consistent. Using the longest historical weather records available for central Australia – 100 years – and quantile regression methods, we investigate if extreme climate events have changed at similar rates to median events, if annual rainfall has increased in variability, and if the frequency of large rainfall events has increased over this period. Specifically, we compared local (individual weather stations) and regional (Simpson Desert) spatial scales, and quantified trends in median (50th quantile) and extreme weather values (5th, 10th, 90th, and 95th quantiles). We found that median and extreme annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at both spatial scales over the past century. Rainfall changes have been inconsistent across the Simpson Desert; individual weather stations showed increases in annual rainfall, increased frequency of large rainfall events or more prolonged droughts, depending on the location. In contrast to our prediction, we found no evidence that intra‐annual rainfall had become more variable over time. Using long‐term live‐trapping records (22 years) of desert small mammals as a case study, we demonstrate that irruptive events are driven by extreme rainfalls (>95th quantile) and that increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are likely to drive changes in the populations of these species through direct and indirect changes in predation pressure and wildfires.     

Demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in semi-arid Chile: seasonality, feedback structure and climate

Here we present, to the authors' knowledge for the very first time for a small marsupial, a thorough analysis of the demography and population dynamics of the mouse opossum (Thylamys elegans) in western South America. We test the relative importance of feedback structure and climatic factors (rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index) in explaining the temporal variation in the demography of the mouse opossum. The demographic information was incorporated into a stage-structured population dynamics model and the model's predictions were compared with observed patterns. The mouse opossum's capture rates showed seasonal (within-year) and between-year variability, with individuals having higher capture rates during late summer and autumn and lower capture rates during winter and spring. There was also a strong between-year effect on capture probabilities. The reproductive (the fraction of reproductively active individuals) and recruitment rates showed a clear seasonal and a between-year pattern of variation with the peak of reproductive activity occuring during winter and early spring. In addition, the fraction of reproductive individuals was positively related to annual rainfall, while population density and annual rainfall positively influenced the recruitment rate. The survival rates were negatively related to annual rainfall. The average finite population growth rate during the study period was estimated to be 1.011 +/- 0.0019 from capture-recapture estimates. While the annual growth rate estimated from the seasonal linear matrix models was 1.026, the subadult and adult survival and maturation rates represent between 54% (winter) and 81% (summer) of the impact on the annual growth rate.     

Effects of weather on the survival and growth of Corncrake Crex crex chicks

Weather conditions during the early life of precocial chicks of some bird species have marked effects on survival and may also cause changes in adult population size. In this paper, we use data from broods with radiotagged mothers to examine correlations of growth rates and survival of Corncrake Crex crex chicks in Scotland and Ireland with temperature and rainfall. The loss of whole broods before they reached independence was infrequent and not correlated with temperature or rainfall. Loss of some chicks from broods before independence usually occurred and multiple regression analysis indicated that the proportion of chicks that survived increased with decreasing initial brood size, increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall. However, the magnitude of the effects of weather on survival were quite small. The rate of weight gain of chicks varied considerably within and among broods. The mean daily weight gain rate of broods decreased significantly with increasing rainfall, and variation in the weight of chicks within broods was greater for broods whose mean rate of weight gain was low.     

Global climate patterns explain range-wide synchronicity in survival of a migratory seabird

To predict the impact of climate change over the whole species distribution range, comparison of adult survival variations over large spatial scale is of primary concern for long-lived species populations that are particularly susceptible to decline if adult survival is reduced. In this study, we estimated and compared adult survival rates between 1989 and 1997 of six populations of Cory's shearwater ( Calonectris diomedea ) spread across 4600 km using capture–recapture models. We showed that mean annual adult survival rates are different among populations along a longitudinal gradient and between sexes. Variation in adult survival is synchronized among populations, with three distinct groups: (1) both females and males of Corsica, Tremiti, and Selvagem (annual survival range 0.88–0.96); (2) both females and males of Frioul and females from Crete (0.82–0.92); and (3) both females and males of Malta and males from Crete (0.74–0.88). The total variation accounted for by the common pattern of variation is on average 71%, suggesting strong environmental forcing. At least 61% of the variation in survival is explained by the Southern Oscillation Index fluctuations. We suggested that Atlantic hurricanes and storms during La Niña years may increase adult mortality for Cory's shearwater during winter months. For long-lived seabird species, variation in adult survival is buffered against environmental variability, although extreme climate conditions such as storms significantly affect adult survival. The effect of climate at large spatial scales on adult survival during the nonbreeding period may lead to synchronization of variation in adult survival over the species' range and has large effects on the meta-population trends. One can thus worry about the future of such long-lived seabirds species under the predictions of higher frequency of extreme large-scale climatic events.     

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long‐lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long‐lived amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture–recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context‐dependent variation in demographic processes.     

Climate change and annual survival in a temperate passerine: partitioning seasonal effects and predicting future patterns

Predicting climate change impacts on population size requires detailed understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates, such as survival. This knowledge is frequently unavailable, even in well‐studied taxa such as birds. In temperate regions, most research into climatic effects on annual survival in resident passerines has focussed on winter temperature. Few studies have investigated potential precipitation effects and most assume little impact of breeding season weather. We use a 19‐year capture–mark–recapture study to provide a rare empirical analysis of how variation in temperature and precipitation throughout the entire year influences adult annual survival in a temperate passerine, the long‐tailed tit Aegithalos caudatus. We use model averaging to predict longer‐term historical survival rates, and future survival until the year 2100. Our model explains 73% of the interannual variation in survival rates. In contrast to current theory, we find a strong precipitation effect and no effect of variation in winter weather on adult annual survival, which is correlated most strongly to breeding season (spring) weather. Warm springs and autumns increase annual survival, but wet springs reduce survival and alter the form of the relationship between spring temperature and annual survival. There is little evidence for density dependence across the observed variation in population size. Using our model to estimate historical survival rates indicates that recent spring warming has led to an upward trend in survival rates, which has probably contributed to the observed long‐term increase in the UK long‐tailed tit population. Future climate change is predicted to further increase survival, under a broad range of carbon emissions scenarios and probabilistic climate change outcomes, even if precipitation increases substantially. We demonstrate the importance of considering weather over the entire annual cycle, and of considering precipitation and temperature in combination, in order to develop robust predictive models of demographic responses to climate change. Synthesis Prediction of climate change impacts demands understanding of how climate influences key demographic rates. In our 19‐year mark‐recapture study of long‐tailed tits Aegithalos caudatus, weather explained 73% of the inter‐annual variation in adult survival; warm springs and autumns increased survival, wet springs reduced survival, but winter weather had little effect. Robust predictions thus require consideration of the entire annual cycle and should not focus solely on temperature. Unexpectedly, survival appeared not to be strongly density‐dependent, so we use historical climate data to infer that recent climate change has enhanced survival over the four decades in which the UK long‐tailed tit population has more than doubled. Furthermore, survival rates in this species are predicted to further increase under a wide range of future climate scenarios.     

An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder

Climate models forecast increasing climatic variation and more extreme events, which could increase the variability in animal demographic rates. More variable demographic rates generally lead to lower population growth and can be detrimental to wild populations, especially if the particular demographic rates affected are those to which population growth is most sensitive. We investigated the population dynamics of a metapopulation of 25 colonies of a semi-arid bird species, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius, and how it was influenced by seasonal weather during 1993–2014. We constructed an integrated population model which estimated population sizes similar to observed population counts, and allowed us to estimate annual fecundity and recruitment. Variance in fecundity contributed most to variance in population growth, which showed no trend over time. No weather variables explained overall demographic variation at the population level. However, a separate analysis of the largest colony showed a clear decline with a high extinction probability (0.05 to 0.33) within 5 years after the study period. In this colony, juvenile survival was lower when summers were hot, and adult survival was lower when winters were cold. Rainfall was also negatively correlated with adult survival. These weather effects could be due to increased physiological demands of thermoregulation and rainfall-induced breeding activity. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the population on the whole are buffered against current weather variation, as individual colonies apparently react in different ways. However, if more and increasingly extreme weather events synchronize colony dynamics, they are likely to have negative effects.     

Use of climatic data and satellite imagery to model the abundance of Culicoides imicola, the vector of African horse sickness virus, in Morocco

African horse sickness (AHS) is a vector-borne, infectious disease of equids caused by African horse sickness virus (AHSV) . The only proven field vector of the virus is the biting midge Culicoides imicola. Following a recent epizootic (1989–91) of AHS in Morocco, light traps and automatic weather stations were operated for 2 years at twenty-two sites distributed over much of the country. The annually-averaged mean daily trap catch of C. imicola at these sites was negatively correlated with wind speed, and positively correlated with the average and mean annual minimum NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, a remotely sensed measure of vegetation activity). There were no significant correlations between the mean daily trap catch and air temperature, soil temperature, relative humidity, saturation deficit, rainfall, altitude or the mean annual maximum or range of NDVI. The best two-variable model, which combined Windspeed_MnAvMn (the average daily minimum wind speed of the least windy month) and NDVI_min (the average annual minimum NDVI) as predictors, explained over 50% of the variance in the annually-averaged mean daily trap catch of C. imicola. There was a significant, positive correlation between minimum wind speed at night and the daily mortality rate of adult female C. imicola and it is suggested that the relationship between wind speed and the abundance of C. imicola arises from effects on adult mortality or dispersal. Considering several climatic variables, in North Africa NDVI_min was most significantly correlated with total annual rainfall. It is suggested that the relationship between NDVI_min and the abundance of C. imicola arises from the impact of soil moisture on both. It is proposed that areas of Morocco with higher levels of soil moisture in late summer or autumn provide more, larger and/or more enduring breeding sites for C. imicola, as well as supporting more photosynthetically active vegetation and hence having higher NDVI.     

Demographic dynamics of the afro-tropical pig-nosed frog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hemisus marmoratus</Emphasis>: effects of climate and predation on survival and recruitment

We studied the population ecology of the West African pig-nosed frog, Hemisus marmoratus, to understand the relative contributions of adult survival and recruitment to population growth rate in savannah frogs using mark-recapture modelling. We marked a total of 821 adult frogs over 6 years and recaptured 74 at least once between years. Between-year adult survival was sex-specific and varied between 0.06 and 0.53 for males and 0.07–0.41 for females. Adult survival was significantly associated with annual rainfall and is cause for concern if rainfall declines further in the study region as predicted by changes in the global climate. There was a significant interaction between rainfall and sex with dry weather having a stronger negative effect on males than females. Pig-nosed frogs experienced boom and bust years with a single decline more dramatic than increases. Recruitment (in situ and immigration; 0.67–0.88) was substantially more important than adult survival (0.12–0.33) in determining realised population growth. In situ recruitment was highly variable between years with 1–36% of eggs and tadpoles released by females into the pond surviving to metamorphosis. Years of low tadpole survival were associated with high numbers of predatory tortoises. Thus, like other pond-breeding anurans, pig-nosed frogs showed highly variable juvenile recruitment, low adult survival and density-independent effects on population growth by predators and weather.     

Climate change may account for the decline in British ring ouzels Turdus torquatus

1. Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, but the number of species for which reliable models relate weather and climate to demographic parameters is low. 2. We modelled the effect of temperature and rainfall on the breeding success and territory occupancy of ring ouzels Turdus torquatus (L.) in northern Britain, using data from a range of study areas, including one where there was a long-term decline in ring ouzel abundance. 3. Timing of breeding was significantly related to meteorological variables affecting birds in the early spring, though there was no evidence that laying dates had advanced. Breeding success was not significantly related to weather variables; instead, over 90% of annual variation in this parameter could be explained by density dependence. 4. Annual change in territory occupancy was linked to rainfall and temperature the preceding summer, after the main breeding season and to rainfall in the wintering grounds 24 months previously, coincident with the period of juniper Juniperus sp. (L.) flowering. High temperature in late summer, intermediate levels of late summer rainfall, and high spring rainfall in Morocco 24 months previously all had negative impacts on territory occupancy the following year. 5. All three weather variables have changed over recent decades, with a significant increase in summer temperature, a significant decrease in summer rainfall, and a nonsignificant decline in Moroccan spring rainfall. A model based on these trends alone predicted an annual decline in occupancy of 3.6% (compared with an observed decline of 1.2%), and suggested that increased summer temperatures may underlie declines in the British ring ouzel population. 6. Changes in summer temperature after the main breeding period could affect the survival rates of adult and/or juvenile birds. An improved understanding of the post-breeding ecology of ring ouzels is required to elucidate the mechanisms and causes of this relationship. Such knowledge might allow management aimed at buffering the impacts of climate change on ring ouzels.     

Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource‐restricted environment

In semi‐arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom‐up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource‐restricted environments. Using a 21‐year biannual capture–recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) in semi‐arid oak woodland of coastal‐central California. We applied Pradel''s temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability (p), apparent survival (φ), recruitment (f), and realized population growth rate (λ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal‐central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.     

Ecosystem feedbacks constrain the effect of day-to-day weather variability on land–atmosphere carbon exchange

Whole-ecosystem interactions and feedbacks constrain ecosystem responses to environmental change. The effects of these constraints on responses to climate trends and extreme weather events have been well studied. Here we examine how these constraints respond to changes in day-to-day weather variability without changing the long-term mean weather. Although environmental variability is recognized as a critical factor affecting ecological function, the effects of climate change on day-to-day weather variability and the resultant impacts on ecosystem function are still poorly understood. Changes in weather variability can alter the mean rates of individual ecological processes because many processes respond non-linearly to environmental drivers. We assessed how these individual-process responses to changes in day-to-day weather variability interact with one another at an ecosystem level. We examine responses of arctic tundra to changes in weather variability using stochastic simulations of daily temperature, precipitation, and light to drive a biogeochemical model. Changes in weather variability altered ecosystem carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus stocks and cycling rates in our model. However, responses of some processes (e.g., respiration) were inconsistent with expectations because ecosystem feedbacks can moderate, or even reverse, direct process responses to weather variability. More weather variability led to greater carbon losses from land to atmosphere; less variability led to higher carbon sequestration on land. The magnitude of modeled ecosystem response to weather variability was comparable to that predicted for the effects of climate mean trends by the end of the century.     

Climatic drivers of pinyon mouse Peromyscus truei population dynamics in a resource-restricted environment

Highly variable patterns in temperature and rainfall events can have pronounced consequences for small mammals in resource-restricted environments. Climatic factors can therefore play a crucial role in determining the fates of small mammal populations. We applied Pradel's temporal symmetry model to a 21-year capture–recapture dataset to study population dynamics of the pinyon mouse (Peromyscus truei) in a semi-arid mixed oak woodland in California, USA. We examined time-, season- and sex-specific variation in realized population growth rate (λ) and its constituent vital rates, apparent survival and recruitment. We also tested the influence of climatic factors on these rates. Overall monthly apparent survival was 0.81 ± 0.004 (estimate ± SE). Survival was generally higher during wetter months (October–May) but varied over time. Monthly recruitment rate was 0.18 ± 0.01, ranging from 0.07 ± 0.01 to 0.63 ± 0.07. Although population growth rate (λ) was highly variable, overall monthly growth rate was close to 1.0, indicating a stable population during the study period (λ ± SE = 0.99 ± 0.01). Average temperature and its variability negatively affected survival, whereas rainfall positively influenced survival and recruitment rates, and thus the population growth rate. Our results suggest that seasonal rainfall and variation in temperature at the local scale, rather than regional climatic patterns, more strongly affected vital rates in this population. Discerning such linkages between species' population dynamics and environmental variability are critical for understanding local and regional impacts of global climate change, and for gauging viability and resilience of populations in resource-restricted environments.     

Rainfall during parental care reduces reproductive and survival components of fitness in a passerine bird

Adverse weather conditions during parental care may have direct consequences for offspring production, but longer‐term effects on juvenile and parental survival are less well known. We used long‐term data on reproductive output, recruitment, and parental survival in northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) to investigate the effects of rainfall during parental care on fledging success, recruitment success (juvenile survival), and parental survival, and how these effects related to nestling age, breeding time, habitat quality, and parental nest visitation rates. While accounting for effects of temperature, fledging success was negatively related to rainfall (days > 10 mm) in the second half of the nestling period, with the magnitude of this effect being greater for breeding attempts early in the season. Recruitment success was, however, more sensitive to the number of rain days in the first half of the nestling period. Rainfall effects on parental survival differed between the sexes; males were more sensitive to rain during the nestling period than females. We demonstrate a probable mechanism driving the rainfall effects on reproductive output: Parental nest visitation rates decline with increasing amounts of daily rainfall, with this effect becoming stronger after consecutive rain days. Our study shows that rain during the nestling stage not only relates to fledging success but also has longer‐term effects on recruitment and subsequent parental survival. Thus, if we want to understand or predict population responses to future climate change, we need to consider the potential impacts of changing rainfall patterns in addition to temperature, and how these will affect target species' vital rates.     

Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios

Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change.