Spatial scale, abundance and the species-energy relationship in British birds

1. The spatial scale of analysis may influence the nature, strength and underlying drivers of macroecological patterns, one of the most frequently discussed of which is the relationship between species richness and environmental energy availability. 2. It has been suggested that species-energy relationships are hump-shaped at fine spatial grains and consistently positive at larger regional grains. The exact nature of this scale dependency is, however, the subject of much debate as relatively few studies have investigated species-energy relationships for the same assemblage across a range of spatial grains. Here, we contrast species-energy relationships for the British breeding avifauna at spatial grains of 1 km x 1 km, 2 km x 2 km and 10 km x 10 km plots, while maintaining a constant spatial extent. 3. Analyses were principally conducted using data on observed species richness. While survey work may fail to detect some species, observed species richness and that estimated using nonparametric techniques were strongly positively correlated with each other, and thus exhibit very similar spatial patterns. Moreover, the forms of species-energy relationships using observed and estimated species richness were statistically indistinguishable from each other. 4. Positive decelerating species-energy relationships arise at all three spatial grains. There is little evidence that the explanatory power of these relationships varies with spatial scale. However, ratios of regional (large-scale) to local (small-scale) species richness decrease with increasing energy availability, indicating that local richness responds to energy with a steeper gradient than does regional richness. Local assemblages thus sample a greater proportion of regional richness at higher energy levels, suggesting that spatial turnover of species richness is lower in high-energy regions. Similarly, a crude measure of temporal turnover, the ratio of cumulative species richness over a 4-year period to species richness in a single year, is lower in high-energy regions. These negative relationships between turnover and energy appear to be causal as both total and mean occupancy per species increases with energy. 5. While total density in 1 km x 1 km plots correlates positively with energy availability, such relationships are very weak for mean density per species. This suggests that the observed association between total abundance and species richness may not be mediated by population extinction rates, as predicted by the more individuals hypothesis. 6. The sampling mechanism suggests that species-energy relationships arise as high-energy areas support a greater number of individuals, and that random allocation of these individuals to local areas from a regional assemblage will generate species-energy relationships. While randomized local species-energy relationships are linear and positive, predicted richness is consistently greater than that observed. The mismatch between the observed and randomized species-energy relationships probably arises as a consequence of the aggregated nature of species distributions. The sampling mechanism, together with species spatial aggregation driven by limited habitat availability, may thus explain the species-energy relationship observed at this spatial scale.     

Relative contribution of abundant and rare species to species-energy relationships

A major goal of ecology is to understand spatial variation in species richness. The latter is markedly influenced by energy availability and appears to be influenced more by common species than rare ones; species-energy relationships should thus be stronger for common species. Species-energy relationships may arise because high-energy areas support more individuals, and these larger populations may buffer species from extinction. As extinction risk is a negative decelerating function of population size, this more-individuals hypothesis (MIH) predicts that rare species should respond more strongly to energy. We investigate these opposing predictions using British breeding bird data and find that, contrary to the MIH, common species contribute more to species-energy relationships than rare ones.     

Species traits and the form of individual species-energy relationships

Environmental energy availability explains much of the spatial variation in species richness at regional scales. While numerous mechanisms that may drive such total species-energy relationships have been identified, knowledge of their relative contributions is scant. Here, we adopt a novel approach to identify these drivers that exploits the composite nature of species richness, i.e. its summation from individual species distributions. We construct individual species-energy relationships (ISERs) for each species in the British breeding avifauna using both solar (temperature) and productive energy metrics (normalized difference vegetation index) as measures of environmental energy availability. We use the slopes of these relationships and the resultant change in deviance, relative to a null model, as measures of their strength and use them as response variables in multiple regressions that use ecological traits as predictors. The commonest species exhibit the strongest ISERs, which is counter to the prediction derived from the more individuals hypothesis. There is no evidence that predatory species have stronger ISERs, which is incompatible with the suggestion that high levels of energy availability increase the length of the food chain allowing larger numbers of predators to exist. We find some evidence that species with narrow niche breadths have stronger ISERs, thus providing one of the few pieces of supportive evidence that high-energy availability promotes species richness by increasing the occurrence of specialist species that use a narrow range of resources.     

Species-energy relationships at the macroecological scale: a review of the mechanisms

Correlations between the amount of energy received by an assemblage and the number of species that it contains are very general, and at the macro-scale such species-energy relationships typically follow a monotonically increasing curve. Whilst the ecological literature contains frequent reports of such relationships, debate on their causal mechanisms is limited and typically focuses on the role of energy availability in controlling the number of individuals in an assemblage. Assemblages from high-energy areas may contain more individuals enabling species to maintain larger, more viable populations, whose lower extinction risk elevates species richness. Other mechanisms have, however, also been suggested. Here we identify and clarify nine principal mechanisms that may generate positive species-energy relationships at the macro-scale. We critically assess their assumptions and applicability over a range of spatial scales, derive predictions for each and assess the evidence that supports or refutes them. Our synthesis demonstrates that all mechanisms share at least one of their predictions with an alternative mechanism. Some previous studies of species-energy relationships appear not to have recognised the extent of shared predictions, and this may detract from their contribution to the debate on causal mechanisms. The combination of predictions and assumptions made by each mechanism is, however, unique, suggesting that, in principle, conclusive tests are possible. Sufficient testing of all mechanisms has yet to be conducted, and no single mechanism currently has unequivocal support. Each may contribute to species-energy relationships in some circumstances, but some mechanisms are unlikely to act simultaneously. Moreover, a limited number appear particularly likely to contribute frequently to species-energy relationships at the macro-scale. The increased population size, niche position and diversification rate mechanisms are particularly noteworthy in this context.     

Scale dependence of species-energy relationships: evidence from fishes in thousands of lakes

Variation in the shape of relationships between species richness and different measures of energy may be linked to variation in the spatial scale on which such relationships are measured. We examine scale dependence in the relationship between potential evapotranspiration and the species richness of fishes in 7,885 postglacial lakes. The strength of this relationship is weak across lake communities but strong and positive across groups of lakes or regions. In addition, the strength and slope of this relationship increase significantly as the regional scale of analysis is increased. We interpret the observed patterns in terms of a simple model whereby energy influences the linear character of the species-energy relationship through its influence on spatial turnover in the species composition (beta diversity). Our results suggest that if energy is strongly tied to patterns of site occupancy or abundance, the parameters of species-energy relationships will depend, to a considerable extent, on the scale of measurement. Furthermore, the ability of high-energy regions to accommodate relatively large numbers of rare or infrequent species may underlie any general tendency for the strength or shape of species-energy relationships to change with scale.     

The species-area-energy relationship

Area and available energy are major determinants of species richness. Although scale dependency of the relationship between energy availability and species richness (the species-energy relationship) has been documented, the exact relationship between the species-area and the species-energy relationship has not been studied explicitly. Here we show, using two extensive data sets on avian distributions in different biogeographic regions, that there is a negative interaction between energy availability and area in their effect on species richness. The slope of the species-area relationship is lower in areas with higher levels of available energy, and the slope of the species-energy relationship is lower for larger areas. This three-dimensional species-area-energy relationship can be understood in terms of probabilistic processes affecting the proportions of sites occupied by individual species. According to this theory, high environmental energy elevates species' occupancies, which depress the slope of the species-area curve.     

Does energy availability influence classical patterns of spatial variation in exotic species richness?

Aim At macroecological scales, exotic species richness is frequently positively correlated with human population density. Such patterns are typically thought to arise because high human densities are associated with increased introduction effort and/or habitat modification and disturbance. Exotic and native species richness are also frequently positively correlated, although the causal mechanisms remain unclear. Energy availability frequently explains much of the variation in species richness and we test whether such species–energy relationships may influence the relationships of exotic species richness with human population density and native species richness. Location Great Britain. Methods We first investigate how spatial variation in the distributions of the 10 exotic bird species is related to energy availability. We then model exotic species richness using native avian species richness, human population density and energy availability as predictors. Species richness is modelled using two sets of models: one assumes independent errors and the other takes spatial correlation into account. Results The probability of each exotic species occurring, in a 10‐km quadrat, increases with energy availability. Exotic species richness is positively correlated with energy availability, human population density and native species richness in univariate tests. When taking energy availability into account, exotic species richness is negligibly influenced by human population density, but remains positively associated with native species richness. Main conclusions We provide one of the few demonstrations that energy availability exerts a strong positive influence on exotic species richness. Within our data, the positive relationship between exotic species richness and human population density probably arises because both variables increase with energy availability, and may be independent of the influence of human density on the probability of establishment. Positive correlations between exotic and native species richness remain when controlling for the influence of energy on species richness. The relevance of such a finding to the debate on the relationship between diversity and invasibility is discussed.     

Local-scale species-energy relationships in fish assemblages of some forested streams of the Bolivian Amazon

Productivity (trophic energy) is one of the most important factors promoting variation in species richness. A variety of species-energy relationships have been reported, including monotonically positive, monotonically negative, or unimodal (i.e. hump-shaped). The exact form of the relationship seems to depend, among other things, on the spatial scale involved. However, the mechanisms behind these patterns are still largely unresolved, although many hypotheses have been suggested. Here we report a case of local-scale positive species-energy relationship. Using 14 local fish assemblages in tropical forested headwater streams (Bolivia), and after controlling for major local abiotic factors usually acting on assemblage richness and structure, we show that rising energy availability through leaf litter decomposition rates allows trophically specialized species to maintain viable populations and thereby to increase assemblage species richness. By deriving predictions from three popular mechanistic explanations, i.e. the 'increased population size', the 'consumer pressure', and the 'specialization' hypotheses, our data provide only equivocal support for the latter.     

Structure of the species--energy relationship

The relationship between energy availability and species richness (the species-energy relationship) is one of the best documented macroecological phenomena. However, the structure of species distribution along the gradient, the proximate driver of the relationship, is poorly known. Here, using data on the distribution of birds in southern Africa, for which species richness increases linearly with energy availability, we provide an explicit determination of this structure. We show that most species exhibit increasing occupancy towards more productive regions (occurring in more grid cells within a productivity class). However, average reporting rates per species within occupied grid cells, a correlate of local density, do not show a similar increase. The mean range of used energy levels and the mean geographical range size of species in southern Africa decreases along the energy gradient, as most species are present at high productivity levels but only some can extend their ranges towards lower levels. Species turnover among grid cells consequently decreases towards high energy levels. In summary, these patterns support the hypothesis that higher productivity leads to more species by increasing the probability of occurrence of resources that enable the persistence of viable populations, without necessarily affecting local population densities.     

Ants and people: a test of two mechanisms potentially responsible for the large‐scale human population–biodiversity correlation for Formicidae in Europe

Aim: Recent coarse‐scale studies have shown positive relationships between the biodiversity of plants/vertebrates and the human population. Little is known about the generality of the pattern for invertebrates. Moreover, biodiversity and human population might correlate because they both covary with other factors such as energy availability and habitat heterogeneity. Here we test these two non‐mutually exclusive mechanisms with ant species‐richness data from the Fauna Europaea. Location Forty‐three European countries/regions. Methods We derived mixed models of total, native and exotic ant species richness as a function of human population size/density, controlling for country area, plant species richness (as a proxy for habitat heterogeneity), and mean annual temperature and precipitation (variables related to energy availability). Results Ant species richness increased significantly with increasing human population. This result was confirmed when controlling for variations in country area. Both for human population size/density and for ant species richness, there were positive correlations with temperature but not with precipitation. This finding is in agreement with the energy‐availability hypothesis. However, we observed a negative latitudinal gradient in ant and plant species richness, although not in human population size/density. Plant species richness was positively correlated with ant species richness but not with human population size/density. Thus, there is evidence that this type of habitat heterogeneity can play a role in the observed latitudinal gradient of ant species richness, but not in the positive correlation between ant species richness and human population. The results were confirmed for the 545 native and the 32 exotic ant species reported, and we observed a good correlation between exotic and native ant species richness. Main conclusions Ant species richness in European countries conforms to six macroecological patterns: (1) a negative latitudinal gradient; and a positive (2) species–energy relationship, (3) species–area relationship, (4) correlation with plant species richness, (5) exotic–native species richness correlation, and (6) species–people correlation. There is some evidence for the energy‐availability hypothesis, but little evidence for habitat heterogeneity as an explanation of the large‐scale human population–ant biodiversity correlation. This correlation has implications for the conservation of ant diversity in Europe.     

Birds and people in Europe

At a regional scale, species richness and human population size are frequently positively correlated across space. Such patterns may arise because both species richness and human density increase with energy availability. If the species-energy relationship is generated through the 'more individuals' hypothesis, then the prediction is that areas with high human densities will also support greater numbers of individuals from other taxa. We use the unique data available for the breeding birds in Europe to test this prediction. Overall regional densities of bird species are higher in areas with more people; species of conservation concern exhibit the same pattern. Avian density also increases faster with human density than does avian biomass, indicating that areas with a higher human density have a higher proportion of small-bodied individuals. The analyses also underline the low numbers of breeding birds in Europe relative to humans, with a median of just three individual birds per person, and 4 g of bird for every kilogram of human.     

People, species richness and human population growth

Aim To investigate how the magnitude of conservation conflicts arising from positive relationships between human population size and species richness is altered during a period of marked human population growth (2% year^?1). Location South Africa. Methods Anuran and avian species richness were calculated from atlas distribution maps, and human population was measured in 1996 and 2001, all at a quarter‐degree resolution. We investigated the relationships between human population size in, and its change during, these two periods and environmental energy availability. We then investigated the nature of relationships between species richness and human population size in both time periods, and its change during them; these analyses were conducted both with and without taking environmental energy availability into account. Finally, we investigated the nature of the relationships between human population size, and its change, and the proportion of protected land. Analyses were conducted both without and with taking spatial autocorrelation into account; the latter was achieved using mixed models that fitted a spatial covariance structure to the data. Results Change in human population size between 1996 and 2001 exhibited marked spatial variation, with both large increases and decreases, but was poorly correlated with environmental energy availability. The nature of the relationship between human population size and environmental energy availability did not, however, exhibit statistically significant differences regardless of whether the former was measured in 1996 or 2001. Similarly, relationships between species richness and human population size did not exhibit significant differences between the two periods. The strengths of the species–human relationships were markedly reduced when energy availability was taken into account. Change in human population size was poorly correlated with species richness. The proportion of protected land was negatively, albeit rather weakly, correlated with human population size in 1996 and 2001, and with its change between these two periods. Main conclusions Positive species–human relationships arise largely, but not entirely, because both species richness and human population size exhibit similar responses to environmental energy availability. During a period of rapid human population growth, and marked changes in the spatial variation in human population size, positive correlations remained between human population size and both anuran and avian species richness. The slope of these correlations did not, however, alter, and the most species‐rich areas are not those with the largest increases in human population. Despite marked population growth, the magnitude of conservation conflicts arising from positive species–human relationships thus appears to have remained largely unchanged.     

A review of the relationships between human population density and biodiversity

To explore the impacts of increasing human numbers on nature, many studies have examined relationships between human population density (HPD) and biodiversity change. The implicit assumption in many of these studies is that as population density increases so does the threat to biodiversity. The implications of this assumption are compounded by recent research showing that species richness for many taxonomic groups is often highest in areas with high HPD. If increasing HPD is a threat to conservation, this threat may be magnified owing to the spatial congruence between people and species richness. Here, I review the relationships between HPD and measures of biodiversity status focussing in particular on evidence for the spatial congruence between people and species richness and the threat that increasing HPD may pose to biodiversity conservation. The review is split into two major sections: (i) a quantitative assessment of 85 studies covering 401 analyses, including meta-analyses on discrete relationships; and (ii) a discussion of the implications of the quantitative analyses and major issues raised in the literature. Our understanding of the relationships between HPD and biodiversity is skewed by geographic and taxonomic biases in the literature. Most research has been conducted in the Northern Hemisphere and focussed primarily on birds and mammals, largely ignoring relationships with other taxonomic groups. A total of 127 analyses compared HPD with the species richness of particular taxonomic groups. A meta-analysis of these results found a significant positive population correlation indicating that, on average, species-rich regions and human settlements co-occur. However, there was substantial unexplained heterogeneity in these data. Some of this heterogeneity was explained by the size of the sampling unit used by researchers - as this increased so did the strength of the correlation between HPD and species richness. The most convincing result for a taxonomic group was a significant positive population correlation between HPD and bird species richness. Significant positive population correlations were also found for HPD versus the richness of threatened and geographically restricted species. Hence, there is reasonably good evidence for spatial congruence between people and species-rich regions. The reasons for this congruence are only just beginning to be explored, but key mutual drivers appear to include available energy and elevation. The evidence for increasing HPD as a threat to conservation was weak, owing primarily to the extreme heterogeneity in the approaches used to address this issue. There was some suggestion of a positive relationship between HPD and species extinction, but this result should be interpreted with caution owing to the wide diversity of approaches used to measure extinction. Identifying strong links between human development and species extinction is hampered in part by the difficulty of recording extinction events. The most convincing indication of the negative impact of increasing HPD was a significant negative population correlation between density and the size of protected areas. The magnitude and implications of spatial congruence between people and biodiversity are now being explored using the principles of complementarity and irreplaceability. Human development as a threat to conservation is usually assessed within a complex, interdisciplinary modelling framework, although population size is still considered a key factor. Future population growth and expansion of human settlements will present increasing challenges for conserving species-rich regions and maximising the benefits humans gain from nature.     

People, energy and avian species richness

Aim To investigate the inter‐relationships between energy availability, species richness and human population density, particularly whether human population density influences the manner in which species richness responds to energy availability. Location British 10‐km grid cells. Methods Using regressions, we investigate how human population density varies with energy availability and the nature of relationships between the numbers of species, classified by abundance and threat categories, and human population density. We then assess whether the relationships between these species richness measures and energy availability are altered when accounting for human population density. We conduct analyses using both independent error models and ones that control for spatial autocorrelation. Results Human population density was strongly and positively correlated with energy availability. Total species richness, and that of unthreatened, threatened, common and moderately common species, increases in a positive decelerating manner with human density. When human population density was taken into account, these species groups exhibited similar species–energy relationships, but the slopes of these relationships were significantly reduced in independent error models and, in the case of total richness, in spatial models. Main conclusions Positive correlations between human density and species richness probably arise as both increase with energy availability. Our data are compatible with the suggestion that high human population densities reduce the rate at which species richness increases with energy availability, but additional research is required before causality can be confirmed.     

Abundance, species richness and energy availability in the North American avifauna

Aim To determine how species richness, abundance, biomass, energy use and mean number of individuals per species scale with environmental energy availability in wintering and breeding avian assemblages, and to contrast assemblages of (i) common and rare species and (ii) breeding residents and migrants. To assess whether such patterns are compatible with the ‘more individuals hypothesis’ (MIH) that high‐energy areas are species‐rich because they support larger populations that are buffered against extinction. Location The North American continent (latitudinal range 23.4 °?48.1 °N; longitudinal range 124.2°?68.7° W). Methods Avian species richness, abundance, biomass and energy use were calculated for 295 Resident Bird Count plots. Environmental energy availability was measured using ambient temperature and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a close correlate of plant productivity. Analyses took plot area into account, and were conducted (with and without taking habitat type into account) using general linear models and spatial mixed models. Results Positive species–energy relationships were exhibited by both wintering and breeding assemblages, but were stronger in the former. The structure of winter assemblages responded more strongly to temperature than NDVI, while breeding assemblages tended to respond more strongly to NDVI. Breeding residents responded to annual measures of energy availability while breeding migrants and the winter assemblage responded more strongly to seasonal measures. In the winter assemblage, rare and common species exhibited species–energy relationships of a similar strength, but common breeding species exhibited a much stronger relationship than rare breeding species. In both breeding and wintering assemblages, abundance, biomass and energy use increased with energy availability and species richness. Energy availability was a poor predictor of the mean number of individuals per species. Main conclusions The nature of the species–energy relationship varies seasonally and with the manner in which energy availability is measured. Our data suggest that residents are less able to respond to seasonal fluxes in resource availability than long‐distance migrants. Increasing species richness and energy availability is associated with increasing numbers of individuals, biomass and energy use. While these observations are compatible with the MIH our data provide only equivocal support for this hypothesis, as the rarest species do not exhibit the strongest species–energy relationships.     

Estimated plant richness pattern across northwest South America provides similar support for the species-energy and spatial heterogeneity hypotheses

Explaining geographic variation in plant species richness at broad spatial scales has long been a major challenge. Many hypotheses have been proposed during the last 200 yr, but recent work has focused on a few major alternatives. Among these, two hypotheses contend that plant species richness reflects 1) variation in energy and water availability among sampling units (the species-energy hypothesis) and 2) habitat and topographic heterogeneity within sampling units (the spatial heterogeneity hypothesis). We used a large botanical database and regression models to simultaneously confront the predictions from both hypotheses against an estimate of vascular plant richness across northwest South America. This estimate provided similar support for both hypotheses, a result that may be seen as contrasting with the notion that variation in energy and water availability among sampling units is the main determinant of plant species richness. We discuss potential explanations for this apparent discrepancy. Regression models that incorporated the relative contributions of both hypotheses predicted that the highest plant species richness in northwest South America is found in topographically complex areas. In contrast to several of the most recent mapping efforts, lowland Amazonia was predicted to be a plant richness trough in the study region. We suggest that diverging portrayals of plant richness across northwest South America result from differences in estimates of the relative importance of the species-energy and the spatial heterogeneity hypotheses.     

A system in which available energy per se controls alpha diversity: marine pelagic birds

An attractive explanation for large-scale gradients of species richness is that trophic energy flux defines living systems. It has yet to be shown that available energy may matter per se, that is, directly and independent of other potential determinants that are usually inescapably correlated (e.g., area, glacial history, or habitat complexity). By using a comprehensive conceptual framework addressing the variation of species richness, we report that in communities of birds regularly foraging in marine pelagic waters during the breeding season, species richness is above all directly linked to the appropriation of metabolic energy. Auxiliary energy supplied by wind and waves is likely to mitigate energetic constraints and thereby codetermine the expansion of niche space, along with an array of other subordinate factors. We emphasize that this system is markedly different from studied communities of terrestrial endotherms or marine exotherms in which habitat complexity and mutagenic solar radiation/temperature, respectively, may be more decisive than the appropriation of trophic energy flux shares as such. While the seabird system suggests that species-energy curves may sometimes directly translate into species-energy relationships, this situation may be rare rather than typical.     

The carrying capacity for species richness

The idea that the number of species within an area is limited by a specific capacity of that area to host species is old yet controversial. Here, we show that the concept of carrying capacity for species richness can be as useful as the analogous concept in population biology. Many lines of empirical evidence indicate the existence of limits of species richness, at least at large spatial and phylogenetic scales. However, available evidence does not support the idea of diversity limits based on limited niche space; instead, carrying capacity should be understood as a stable equilibrium of biodiversity dynamics driven by diversity‐dependent processes of extinction, speciation and/or colonization. We argue that such stable equilibria exist even if not all resources are used and if increasing species richness increases the ability of a community to use resources. Evaluating the various theoretical approaches to modelling diversity dynamics, we conclude that a fruitful approach for macroecology and biodiversity science is to develop theory that assumes that the key mechanism leading to stable diversity equilibria is the negative diversity dependence of per‐species extinction rates, driven by the fact that population sizes of species must decrease with an increasing number of species owing to limited energy availability. The recently proposed equilibrium theory of biodiversity dynamics is an example of such a theory, which predicts that equilibrium species richness (i.e., carrying capacity) is determined by the interplay of the total amount of available resources, the ability of communities to use those resources, environmental stability that affects extinction rates, and the factors that affect speciation and colonization rates. We argue that the diversity equilibria resulting from these biodiversity dynamics are first‐order drivers of large‐scale biodiversity patterns, such as the latitudinal diversity gradient.     

The causes of species richness patterns across space, time, and clades and the role of "ecological limits"

A major goal of research in ecology and evolution is to explain why species richness varies across habitats, regions, and clades. Recent reviews have argued that species richness patterns among regions and clades may be explained by "ecological limits" on diversity over time, which are said to offer an alternative explanation to those invoking speciation and extinction (diversification) and time. Further, it has been proposed that this hypothesis is best supported by failure to find a positive relationship between time (e.g., clade age) and species richness. Here, I critically review the evidence for these claims, and propose how we might better study the ecological and evolutionary origins of species richness patterns. In fact, ecological limits can only influence species richness in clades by influencing speciation and extinction, and so this new "alternative paradigm" is simply one facet of the traditional idea that ecology influences diversification. The only direct evidence for strict ecological limits on richness (i.e., constant diversity over time) is from the fossil record, but many studies cited as supporting this pattern do not, and there is evidence for increasing richness over time. Negative evidence for a relationship between clade age and richness among extant clades is not positive evidence for constant diversity over time, and many recent analyses finding no age-diversity relationship were biased to reach this conclusion. More comprehensive analyses strongly support a positive age-richness relationship. There is abundant evidence that both time and ecological influences on diversification rates are important drivers of both large-scale and small-scale species richness patterns. The major challenge for future studies is to understand the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underpinning the relationships between time, dispersal, diversification, and species richness patterns.     

The species–energy theory: a role for energy variability

Species–energy theory posits that energy availability regulates population sizes, extinction rates and ultimately species richness. This theory has focused mostly on total energy as a measure of energy availability. However, because energy variation can also influence population sizes and extinction rates, species–energy theory should arguably consider simultaneously both total energy and its variation. Using data on species richness of land birds and mammals, we compared the fit of three species–energy models including total energy, energy variation or both combined. We show that the combination of total energy and energy variation has greater predictive power than any of them considered separately. We also evaluate three crucial assumptions of this modified species–energy theory and show that they are supported by available data. These results illuminate the current debate on climate change, given that both average conditions and variability of climatic conditions are likely to change in the future.