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1.
BackgroundHIV impacts heavily on the operating costs of companies in sub-Saharan Africa, with many companies now providing antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in the workplace. A full cost–benefit analysis of workplace ART provision has not been conducted using primary data. We developed a dynamic health-state transition model to estimate the economic impact of HIV and the cost–benefit of ART provision in a mining company in South Africa between 2003 and 2022.ConclusionsWorkplace ART provision can be cost-saving for companies in high HIV prevalence settings due to reductions in healthcare costs, absenteeism, and staff turnover. Company-sponsored HIV counselling and voluntary testing with ensuing treatment of all HIV-positive employees and family members should be implemented universally at workplaces in countries with high HIV prevalence.  相似文献   

2.
BackgroundGenital viral load (GVL) is the main determinant of sexual transmission of human immune-deficiency virus (HIV). The effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on local cervico-vaginal immunological factors associated with GVL is poorly described. We aimed to identify the risk factors of detectable GVL, and the impact of ART on HIV genital shedding and its correlates in a cohort of HIV-infected women, attending HIV care in Kigali, Rwanda.Results96 of the 247 women enrolled in the study were eligible for ART. After 12 months of ART, PVL and GVL decreased to undetectable level in respectively 74 and 88% of treated participants. ART did not affect cytokine levels. HIV genital shedding occurred only when PVL was detectable. At baseline, GVL was independently associated with IL-1β after controlling for PVL, age and N. gonorrhea infection (95% CI 1.32-2.15) and at month 12 with MIP-1β (95% CI 0.96-21.32) after controlling for baseline GVL, PVL and month 12 IL-8.ConclusionSuppressive ART does not necessarily reduce genital level of immune activation. Minimizing all conditions favoring genital inflammation, including active detection and treatment of STIs, might reduce the risk of HIV transmission as supplement to the provision of potent ART.  相似文献   

3.
BackgroundMultistage stepwise HIV testing and treatment initiation procedures can result in lost opportunities to provide timely antiretroviral therapy (ART). Incomplete patient engagement along the continuum of HIV care translates into high levels of preventable mortality. We aimed to evaluate the ability of a simplified test and treat structural intervention to reduce mortality.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that the simplified HIV test and treat intervention promoted successful engagement in care and was associated with a 62% reduction in mortality. Our findings support the implementation of integrated HIV testing and immediate access to ART irrespective of CD4 count, in order to optimize the impact of ART.  相似文献   

4.
BackgroundMany studies have reported factors associated with HIV status disclosure among People Living With HIV and AIDS (PLWHA) but very few were conducted among PLWHA receiving ART. In Togo, no study on HIV status disclosure to sexual partners has been conducted among PLWHA on ART yet. We sought to document factors associated with HIV status disclosure among PLWHA receiving ART at Sokodé regional hospital in Togo.MethodThis was a cross-sectional study conducted from May to July 2013 at the regional hospital of Sokodé among 291 PLWHA who had been on ART for at least three months.ResultsA total of 291 PLWHA on ART were enrolled in this study. Their mean age (±SD) was 37.3±9.3 years and the sex ratio (Male/Female) was 0.4. Among them, 215 (74.6%) completed the questionnaire on HIV sero-status disclosure. We found that 131 PLWHA (60.9%) had disclosed their HIV sero-status to their sexual partners; 130 (60.5%) were aware of the HIV status of their sexual partners. In the multivariate analysis, the factors associated with HIV status disclosure to sexual partners were: adherence to ART (aOR = 4.89; 95%CI = [1.52; 15.78]), sexual partner awareness of HIV sero-status (aOR = 52.73; 95%CI = [14.76; 188.36]) and marital status of PLWHA (aOR = 6.10; 95%CI = [1.74; 21.37]).ConclusionThis study allowed us to note that the disclosure of HIV status to sexual partners is relatively low and to document the associated factors such as adherence to ART, sexual partner awareness of HIV sero-status and marital status.  相似文献   

5.
BackgroundThe expansion of combination antiretroviral treatment (ART) in southern Africa has dramatically reduced mortality due to AIDS-related infections, but the impact of ART on cancer incidence in the region is unknown. We sought to describe trends in cancer incidence in Botswana during implementation of the first public ART program in Africa.MethodsWe included 8479 incident cases from the Botswana National Cancer Registry during a period of significant ART expansion in Botswana, 2003–2008, when ART coverage increased from 7.3% to 82.3%. We fit Poisson models of age-adjusted cancer incidence and counts in the total population, and in an inverse probability weighted population with known HIV status, over time and estimated ART coverage.FindingsDuring this period 61.6% of cancers were diagnosed in HIV-infected individuals and 45.4% of all cancers in men and 36.4% of all cancers in women were attributable to HIV. Age-adjusted cancer incidence decreased in the HIV infected population by 8.3% per year (95% CI -14.1 to -2.1%). However, with a progressively larger and older HIV population the annual number of cancers diagnosed remained constant (0.0% annually, 95% CI -4.3 to +4.6%). In the overall population, incidence of Kaposi’s sarcoma decreased (4.6% annually, 95% CI -6.9 to -2.2), but incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (+11.5% annually, 95% CI +6.3 to +17.0%) and HPV-associated cancers increased (+3.9% annually, 95% CI +1.4 to +6.5%). Age-adjusted cancer incidence among individuals without HIV increased 7.5% per year (95% CI +1.4 to +15.2%).InterpretationExpansion of ART in Botswana was associated with decreased age-specific cancer risk. However, an expanding and aging population contributed to continued high numbers of incident cancers in the HIV population. Increased capacity for early detection and treatment of HIV-associated cancer needs to be a new priority for programs in Africa.  相似文献   

6.

Introduction

Prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A), triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B), or lifelong ART (Option B+). The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates.

Materials and Methods

We constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1) current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2) current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3) high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART) at current coverage.

Results

At current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results.

Discussion

Implementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels) in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda’s higher fertility rates.  相似文献   

7.
BackgroundThe 2015 WHO recommendation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all immediately following HIV diagnosis is partially based on the anticipated impact on HIV incidence in the surrounding population. We investigated this approach in a cluster-randomised trial in a high HIV prevalence setting in rural KwaZulu-Natal. We present findings from the first phase of the trial and report on uptake of home-based HIV testing, linkage to care, uptake of ART, and community attitudes about ART.ConclusionsHome-based HIV testing was well received in this rural population, although men were less easily contactable at home; immediate ART was acceptable, with good viral suppression and retention. However, only about half of HIV-positive people accessed care within 6 mo of being identified, with nearly two-thirds accessing care by 12 mo. The observed delay in linkage to care would limit the individual and public health ART benefits of universal testing and treatment in this population.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01509508  相似文献   

8.
BackgroundIt is unclear whether antiretroviral therapy (ART) should be initiated during acute HIV infection. Most recent data provides evidence of benefits of early ART.MethodsWe retrospectively compared the clinical and immunological course of individuals with acute HIV infection, who received ART within 3 months (group A) or not (group B) after diagnosis.ResultsAmong the 84 individuals with acute HIV infection, 57 (68%) received ART within 3 months (A) whereas 27 (32%) did not receive ART within 3 months (B), respectively. Clinical progression to CDC stadium B or C within 5 years after the diagnosis of HIV was less common in (A) when compared to (B) (P = 0.002). After twelve months, both the mean increase in CD4+ T cell count and the mean decrease in viral load was more pronounced in (A), when compared to (B) (225 vs. 87 cells/μl; P = 0.002 and -4.19 vs. -1.14 log10 copies/mL; P<0.001). Twenty-four months after diagnosis the mean increase from baseline of CD4+ T cells was still higher in group A compared to group B (251 vs. 67 cells/μl, P = 0.004).ConclusionsInitiation of ART during acute HIV infection is associated with a lower probability of clinical progression to more advanced CDC stages and significant immunological benefits.  相似文献   

9.
BackgroundA randomized trial of voluntary medical male circumcision (MC) of HIV—infected men reported increased HIV transmission to female partners among men who resumed sexual intercourse prior to wound healing. We conducted a prospective observational study to assess penile HIV shedding after MC.ConclusionPenile HIV shedding is significantly reduced after healing of MC wounds. Lower plasma VL is associated with decreased frequency and quantity of HIV shedding from MC wounds. Starting ART prior to MC should be considered to reduce male-to-female HIV transmission risk. Research is needed to assess the time on ART required to decrease shedding, and the acceptability and feasibility of initiating ART at the time of MC.  相似文献   

10.
IntroductionBased on growing evidence mainly from countries outside Sub-Saharan Africa, the World Health Organisation (WHO) now recommends initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected individuals in developing countries when CD4 cell count (CD4+) is ≤ 500cells/ul. Nigeria accounts for about 14% of the estimated HIV/AIDS burden in Sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated the factors associated with timing of initiation of ART among treatment-ineligible HIV-infected adults from Nigeria.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the hospital records of ART ineligible HIV-infected adults who enrolled into HIV care between January 2008 and December 2012 at two major tertiary hospitals in Bayelsa State, South-South Nigeria. Demographic, clinical and laboratories data were obtained at presentation, at each subsequent visit at 6 monthly intervals and at time of initiation of ART. Cox proportional regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to evaluate independent predictors of time to initiation of ART.ResultsAmongst the 280 study participants, 70.6% were females, 62.6% had CD4+ ≥500cells/ul, 48.4% had WHO HIV Stage 1 disease and 34.3% were lost to follow up. In a cohort of 180 participants followed up for ≥3months, participants with CD4+ of 351-500cells/ul and stage 2 disease were more likely to start ART earlier than those with CD4+ > 500cells/ul (Hazard ratio [HR]-1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] of 1.0-2.9) and stage 1 disease (HR-2.3 (95% CI-1.3-4.2) respectively. HIV-infected adults with faster CD4+ decay required earlier ART initiation, especially in the first year of follow up.ConclusionART-ineligible HIV-infected adults on follow up in South-South Nigeria are more likely to require earlier initiation of ART if they have stage 2 HIV disease or CD4+ ≤500cells/ul at presentation. Our findings suggest faster progression of HIV-disease in these groups of individuals and corroborate the growing evidence in support for earlier initiation of ART.  相似文献   

11.
Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can reduce HIV levels in plasma to undetectable levels, but rather little is known about the effects of ART outside of the peripheral blood regarding persistent virus production in tissue reservoirs. Understanding the dynamics of ART-induced reductions in viral RNA (vRNA) levels throughout the body is important for the development of strategies to eradicate infectious HIV from patients. Essential to a successful eradication therapy is a component capable of killing persisting HIV infected cells during ART. Therefore, we determined the in vivo efficacy of a targeted cytotoxic therapy to kill infected cells that persist despite long-term ART. For this purpose, we first characterized the impact of ART on HIV RNA levels in multiple organs of bone marrow-liver-thymus (BLT) humanized mice and found that antiretroviral drug penetration and activity was sufficient to reduce, but not eliminate, HIV production in each tissue tested. For targeted cytotoxic killing of these persistent vRNA+ cells, we treated BLT mice undergoing ART with an HIV-specific immunotoxin. We found that compared to ART alone, this agent profoundly depleted productively infected cells systemically. These results offer proof-of-concept that targeted cytotoxic therapies can be effective components of HIV eradication strategies.  相似文献   

12.
BackgroundIntegration of HIV services with other health services has been proposed as an important strategy to boost the sustainability of the global HIV response. We conducted a systematic and comprehensive synthesis of the existing scientific evidence on the impact of service integration on the HIV care cascade, health outcomes, and cost-effectiveness.Methods and findingsWe reviewed the global quantitative empirical evidence on integration published between 1 January 2010 and 10 September 2021. We included experimental and observational studies that featured both an integration intervention and a comparator in our review. Of the 7,118 unique peer-reviewed English-language studies that our search algorithm identified, 114 met all of our selection criteria for data extraction. Most of the studies (90) were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in East Africa (55) and Southern Africa (24). The most common forms of integration were (i) HIV testing and counselling added to non-HIV services and (ii) non-HIV services added to antiretroviral therapy (ART). The most commonly integrated non-HIV services were maternal and child healthcare, tuberculosis testing and treatment, primary healthcare, family planning, and sexual and reproductive health services. Values for HIV care cascade outcomes tended to be better in integrated services: uptake of HIV testing and counselling (pooled risk ratio [RR] across 37 studies: 1.67 [95% CI 1.41–1.99], p < 0.001), ART initiation coverage (pooled RR across 19 studies: 1.42 [95% CI 1.16–1.75], p = 0.002), time until ART initiation (pooled RR across 5 studies: 0.45 [95% CI 0.20–1.00], p = 0.050), retention in HIV care (pooled RR across 19 studies: 1.68 [95% CI 1.05–2.69], p = 0.031), and viral suppression (pooled RR across 9 studies: 1.19 [95% CI 1.03–1.37], p = 0.025). Also, treatment success for non-HIV-related diseases and conditions and the uptake of non-HIV services were commonly higher in integrated services. We did not find any significant differences for the following outcomes in our meta-analyses: HIV testing yield, ART adherence, HIV-free survival among infants, and HIV and non-HIV mortality. We could not conduct meta-analyses for several outcomes (HIV infections averted, costs, and cost-effectiveness), because our systematic review did not identify sufficient poolable studies. Study limitations included possible publication bias of studies with significant or favourable findings and comparatively weak evidence from some world regions and on integration of services for key populations in the HIV response.ConclusionsIntegration of HIV services and other health services tends to improve health and health systems outcomes. Despite some scientific limitations, the global evidence shows that service integration can be a valuable strategy to boost the sustainability of the HIV response and contribute to the goal of ‘ending AIDS by 2030’, while simultaneously supporting progress towards universal health coverage.

Caroline Bulstra and co-workers assess evidence on the benefits of service integration in the HIV care cascade.  相似文献   

13.
Novel therapeutic strategies are needed to attenuate increased systemic and gut inflammation that contribute to morbidity and mortality in chronic HIV infection despite potent antiretroviral therapy (ART). The goal of this study is to use preclinical models of chronic treated HIV to determine whether the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory apoA-I mimetic peptides 6F and 4F attenuate systemic and gut inflammation in chronic HIV. We used two humanized murine models of HIV infection and gut explants from 10 uninfected and 10 HIV infected persons on potent ART, to determine the in vivo and ex vivo impact of apoA-I mimetics on systemic and intestinal inflammation in HIV. When compared to HIV infected humanized mice treated with ART alone, mice on oral apoA-I mimetic peptide 6F with ART had consistently reduced plasma and gut tissue cytokines (TNF-α, IL-6) and chemokines (CX3CL1) that are products of ADAM17 sheddase activity. Oral 6F attenuated gut protein levels of ADAM17 that were increased in HIV-1 infected mice on potent ART compared to uninfected mice. Adding oxidized lipoproteins and endotoxin (LPS) ex vivo to gut explants from HIV infected persons increased levels of ADAM17 in myeloid and intestinal cells, which increased TNF-α and CX3CL1. Both 4F and 6F attenuated these changes. Our preclinical data suggest that apoA-I mimetic peptides provide a novel therapeutic strategy that can target increased protein levels of ADAM17 and its sheddase activity that contribute to intestinal and systemic inflammation in treated HIV. The large repertoire of inflammatory mediators involved in ADAM17 sheddase activity places it as a pivotal orchestrator of several inflammatory pathways associated with morbidity in chronic treated HIV that make it an attractive therapeutic target.  相似文献   

14.
Peter Ehrenkranz and co-authors present a cyclical cascade of care for people with HIV infection, aiming to facilitate assessment of outcomes.

Summary points
  • Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevents illness and death from HIV disease and transmission of HIV infection. To encourage global scale-up of ART, the Joint UN Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) issued the “95-95-95” targets for the HIV “cascade of care.” These targets state that by 2030, 95% of individuals living with HIV will know their HIV status, 95% of people with diagnosed HIV infection will receive ART, and 95% of those taking ART will have achieved suppression of the virus.
  • While tremendous progress has been made toward achieving these targets, substantial gaps remain. The challenge of closing the final gaps requires reconsideration of the cascade itself.
  • The 95-95-95 HIV care cascade depicts a linear and unidirectional continuum of care with one starting point (HIV diagnosis) and one ending point (treatment discontination or death). This simplification of the cascade oversimplifies the complex cycle of engagement, disengagement, temporary disuptions, reengagement, and transitions in care experienced by many people living with HIV (PLHIV).
  • As the proportion of PLHIV who reinitiate ART after previously starting and stopping increases, we propose to update the HIV cascade of care to better reflect actual experiences of PLHIV. The new cascade makes the cycle of engaging and reengaging in HIV care both explicit and expected.
  • The revised cascade will inform and prioritize efforts by communities, healthcare workers, implementers, program managers, policymakers, and donors to prevent missed clinic visits, overcome barriers to care reentry, and minimize onset of advanced HIV disease. It will also emphasize that morbidity, mortality, and onward transmission can be minimized by focusing interventions on anticipating, and then reducing, the duration of gaps in care.
  相似文献   

15.

Objectives

Despite demonstrating only partial efficacy in preventing new infections, available HIV prevention interventions could offer a powerful strategy when combined. In anticipation of combination HIV prevention programs and research studies we estimated the population-level impact of combining effective scalable interventions at high population coverage, determined the factors that influence this impact, and estimated the synergy between the components.

Methods

We used a mathematical model to investigate the effect on HIV incidence of a combination HIV prevention intervention comprised of high coverage of HIV testing and counselling, risk reduction following HIV diagnosis, male circumcision for HIV-uninfected men, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected persons. The model was calibrated to data for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV prevalence is approximately 23%.

Results

Compared to current levels of HIV testing, circumcision, and ART, the combined intervention with ART initiation according to current guidelines could reduce HIV incidence by 47%, from 2.3 new infections per 100 person-years (pyar) to 1.2 per 100 pyar within 4 years and by almost 60%, to 1 per 100 pyar, after 25 years. Short-term impact is driven primarily by uptake of testing and reductions in risk behaviour following testing while long-term effects are driven by periodic HIV testing and retention in ART programs. If the combination prevention program incorporated HIV treatment upon diagnosis, incidence could be reduced by 63% after 4 years and by 76% (to about 0.5 per 100 pyar) after 15 years. The full impact of the combination interventions accrues over 10–15 years. Synergy is demonstrated between the intervention components.

Conclusion

High coverage combination of evidence-based strategies could generate substantial reductions in population HIV incidence in an African generalized HIV epidemic setting. The full impact could be underestimated by the short assessment duration of typical evaluations.  相似文献   

16.
《Endocrine practice》2020,26(6):612-618
ObjectiveTo demonstrate clinical and laboratory characteristics of Graves disease in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART).MethodsThis is a single-institution study. All HIV-infected Thai patients who were diagnosed with Graves disease following the initiation of ART between January, 2007, and June, 2018, were retrospectively enrolled.ResultsOf the 24 subjects, the mean age was 39.6 ± 10 years at the time of Graves disease diagnosis. The male to female ratio was 1:1.2. Palpitation and weight loss were the most common clinical manifestations. Of the 6 patients (25%) with evidence of Graves orbitopathy, 1 had sight-threatening orbitopathy. Two patients also had other autoimmune diseases (vitiligo and psoriatic arthritis). The median CD4 cell counts at HIV and Graves disease diagnosis were 73.5 (interquartile range &lsqb;IQR], 15.5 to 189.5) and 525 (IQR, 402.3 to 725) cells/μL, respectively. The median time from ART commencement of the last effective ART regimen to the development of Graves disease was 29.5 (IQR, 13.8 to 48) months with a mean CD4 cell count increment of 328.7 ± 174.9 cells/μL. The median duration of antithyroid therapy was 34.5 (IQR, 23.8 to 51.0) months. Thirteen patients (54.2%) received radioactive iodine ablation.ConclusionGraves disease should be suspected in HIV-infected patients who present with palpitations and weight loss despite good immunologic response to ART. Awareness of this condition can lead to diagnosis and appropriate management. Unlike immune reconstitution disease associated with infection, Graves disease may develop many years after ART initiation.  相似文献   

17.

Aim

Previous economic literature on the cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs has been mainly focused on the microeconomic consequences of alternative use of resources devoted to the fight against the HIV pandemic. We rather aim at forecasting the consequences of alternative scenarios for the macroeconomic performance of countries.

Methods

We used a micro-simulation model based on individuals aged 15–49 selected from nationally representative surveys (DHS for Cameroon, Tanzania and Swaziland) to compare alternative scenarios : 1-freezing of ART programs to current levels of access, 2- universal access (scaling up to 100% coverage by 2015, with two variants defining ART eligibility according to previous or current WHO guidelines). We introduced an “artificial” ageing process by programming methods. Individuals could evolve through different health states: HIV negative, HIV positive (with different stages of the syndrome). Scenarios of ART procurement determine this dynamics. The macroeconomic impact is obtained using sample weights that take into account the resulting age-structure of the population in each scenario and modeling of the consequences on total growth of the economy.

Results

Increased levels of ART coverage result in decreasing HIV incidence and related mortality. Universal access to ART has a positive impact on workers'' productivity; the evaluations performed for Swaziland and Cameroon show that universal access would imply net cost-savings at the scale of the society, when the full macroeconomic consequences are introduced in the calculations. In Tanzania, ART access programs imply a net cost for the economy, but 70% of costs are covered by GDP gains at the 2034 horizon, even in the extended coverage option promoted by WHO guidelines initiating ART at levels of 350 cc/mm3 CD4 cell counts.

Conclusion

Universal Access ART scaling-up strategies, which are more costly in the short term, remain the best economic choice in the long term. Renouncing or significantly delaying the achievement of this goal, due to “legitimate” short term budgetary constraints would be a misguided choice.  相似文献   

18.
BackgroundThe paucity of effective treatment in neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) encouraged us to investigate the therapeutic value of artesunate (ART) promised by its inhibitory effect against various tumors and broad safety profile.MethodsWe evaluated the impact of ART on three NET cell lines, BON-1, QGP-1 and NCI-H727 on cellular and molecular levels.ResultsOur results showed that ART induced endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress through phosphorylation of eIF2α, which further gave rise to autophagy in all three NET cell lines. Specifically, apoptosis and ferroptosis were also observed in BON-1 cells, which made BON-1 cell line more vulnerable upon ART treatment. The different sensitivities presented on the three cell lines also associated with a differential regulation of p21 on the long run. Co-treatment with p21 inhibitor UC2288 showed an additive effect on QGP-1 and NCI-H727 cell lines indicating p21 upregulation in these two cell lines might confer resistance towards ART treatment.ConclusionsIt is possible to include ART in the treatment of NETs in the future.  相似文献   

19.

Background

Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.

Methods and Findings

Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.

Conclusions

Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary  相似文献   

20.
BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in the community and outside of a traditional health facility has the potential to improve linkage to ART, decongest health facilities, and minimize structural barriers to attending HIV services among people living with HIV (PLWH). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the effect of offering ART initiation in the community on HIV treatment outcomes.Methods and findingsWe searched databases between 1 January 2013 and 22 February 2021 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies that compared offering ART initiation in a community setting to offering ART initiation in a traditional health facility or alternative community setting. We assessed risk of bias, reporting of implementation outcomes, and real-world relevance and used Mantel–Haenszel methods to generate pooled risk ratios (RRs) and risk differences (RDs) with 95% confidence intervals. We evaluated heterogeneity qualitatively and quantitatively and used GRADE to evaluate overall evidence certainty. Searches yielded 4,035 records, resulting in 8 included studies—4 RCTs and 4 observational studies—conducted in Lesotho, South Africa, Nigeria, Uganda, Malawi, Tanzania, and Haiti—a total of 11,196 PLWH. Five studies were conducted in general HIV populations, 2 in key populations, and 1 in adolescents. Community ART initiation strategies included community-based HIV testing coupled with ART initiation at home or at community venues; 5 studies maintained ART refills in the community, and 4 provided refills at the health facility. All studies were pragmatic, but in most cases provided additional resources. Few studies reported on implementation outcomes. All studies showed higher ART uptake in community initiation arms compared to facility initiation and refill arms (standard of care) (RR 1.73, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.45; RD 30%, 95% CI 10% to 50%; 5 studies). Retention (RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.54; RD 19%, 95% CI 11% to 28%; 4 studies) and viral suppression (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.49; RD 15%, 95% CI 10% to 21%; 3 studies) at 12 months were also higher in the community-based ART initiation arms. Improved uptake, retention, and viral suppression with community ART initiation were seen across population subgroups—including men, adolescents, and key populations. One study reported no difference in retention and viral suppression at 2 years. There were limited data on adherence and mortality. Social harms and adverse events appeared to be minimal and similar between community ART initiation and standard of care. One study compared ART refill strategies following community ART initiation (community versus facility refills) and found no difference in viral suppression (RD −7%, 95% CI −19% to 6%) or retention at 12 months (RD −12%, 95% CI −23% to 0.3%). This systematic review was limited by few studies for inclusion, poor-quality observational data, and short-term outcomes.ConclusionsBased on data from a limited set of studies, community ART initiation appears to result in higher ART uptake, retention, and viral suppression at 1 year compared to facility-based ART initiation. Implementation on a wider scale necessitates broader exploration of costs, logistics, and acceptability by providers and PLWH to ensure that these effects are reproducible when delivered at scale, in different contexts, and over time.

Ingrid Eshun-Wilson and co-workers assess the available evidence on community-based treatment initiation for people with HIV.  相似文献   

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