“Hand down,Man down.” Analysis of Defensive Adjustments in Response to the Hot Hand in Basketball Using Novel Defense Metrics

The hot-hand phenomenon, according to which a player’s performance is significantly elevated during certain phases relative to the expected performance based on the player’s base rate, has left many researchers and fans in basketball puzzled: The vast majority of players, coaches and fans believe in its existence but statistical evidence supporting this belief has been scarce. It has frequently been argued that the hot hand in basketball is unobservable because of strategic adjustments and defensive interference of the opposing team. We use a dataset with novel metrics, such as the number of defenders and the defensive intensity for each shot attempt, which enable us to directly measure defensive pressure. First, we examine how the shooting percentage of NBA players changes relative to the attributes of each metric. We find that it is of lesser importance by how many defenders a player is guarded but that defensive intensity, e.g., whether a defender raises his hand when his opponent shoots, has a larger impact on shot difficulty. Second, we explore how the underlying metrics and shooting accuracy change as a function of streak length. Our results indicate that defensive pressure and shot difficulty increase (decrease) during hot (cold) streaks, so that defenders seem to behave according to the hot-hand belief and try to force hot players into more difficult shots. However, we find that shooting percentages of presumably hot players do not increase and that shooting performance is not related to streakiness, so that the defenders’ hot-hand behavior cannot be considered ecologically rational. Therefore, we are unable to find evidence in favor of the hot-hand effect even when accounting for defensive pressure.     

Basketball Teams as Strategic Networks

We asked how team dynamics can be captured in relation to function by considering games in the first round of the NBA 2010 play-offs as networks. Defining players as nodes and ball movements as links, we analyzed the network properties of degree centrality, clustering, entropy and flow centrality across teams and positions, to characterize the game from a network perspective and to determine whether we can assess differences in team offensive strategy by their network properties. The compiled network structure across teams reflected a fundamental attribute of basketball strategy. They primarily showed a centralized ball distribution pattern with the point guard in a leadership role. However, individual play-off teams showed variation in their relative involvement of other players/positions in ball distribution, reflected quantitatively by differences in clustering and degree centrality. We also characterized two potential alternate offensive strategies by associated variation in network structure: (1) whether teams consistently moved the ball towards their shooting specialists, measured as “uphill/downhill” flux, and (2) whether they distributed the ball in a way that reduced predictability, measured as team entropy. These network metrics quantified different aspects of team strategy, with no single metric wholly predictive of success. However, in the context of the 2010 play-offs, the values of clustering (connectedness across players) and network entropy (unpredictability of ball movement) had the most consistent association with team advancement. Our analyses demonstrate the utility of network approaches in quantifying team strategy and show that testable hypotheses can be evaluated using this approach. These analyses also highlight the richness of basketball networks as a dataset for exploring the relationships between network structure and dynamics with team organization and effectiveness.     

Differences in situation efficacy indicators at the elite basketball players that play on different positions in the team

The aim of our study was to determine the differences in situational efficacy for basketball players, in relation to their team positions: between guards and forwards/centres, and between the players on the four major positions in the team. The final sample of subjects (74 basketball players) is selected from the initial sample of 107 subjects, selected from nine men's senior basketball teams that played in A-1 Croatian men's basketball league championship in 2006/2007. Results confirmed the hypothesis that there is a significant difference between different groups of players: point/shooting guards, comparing with forwards/centres; players that play on four positions: point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward/centre. Guards have shown greater efficiency and utilization of the three-point shots, while centres are better in two-point shots. Guards have a greater number of assists, successful and unsuccessful three-point shots, while centres are better in the offensive and defensive rebounds, as same as in successful and unsuccessful two-point shots. No statistically significant differences were found among the players on the guard positions (point guard and shooting guard), while only one statistically significant difference is found among the players on the position forward/centre (small forward and power forward/centre).     

The problem of shot selection in basketball

In basketball, every time the offense produces a shot opportunity the player with the ball must decide whether the shot is worth taking. In this article, I explore the question of when a team should shoot and when they should pass up the shot by considering a simple theoretical model of the shot selection process, in which the quality of shot opportunities generated by the offense is assumed to fall randomly within a uniform distribution. Within this model I derive an answer to the question “how likely must the shot be to go in before the player should take it?” and I show that this lower cutoff for shot quality depends crucially on the number of shot opportunities remaining (say, before the shot clock expires), with larger demanding that only higher-quality shots should be taken. The function is also derived in the presence of a finite turnover rate and used to predict the shooting rate of an optimal-shooting team as a function of time. The theoretical prediction for the optimal shooting rate is compared to data from the National Basketball Association (NBA). The comparison highlights some limitations of the theoretical model, while also suggesting that NBA teams may be overly reluctant to shoot the ball early in the shot clock.     

Physique and Performance of Young Wheelchair Basketball Players in Relation with Classification

The relationships among physical characteristics, performance, and functional ability classification of younger wheelchair basketball players have been barely investigated to date. The purpose of this work was to assess anthropometry, body composition, and performance in sport-specific field tests in a national sample of Italian younger wheelchair basketball players as well as to evaluate the association of these variables with the players’ functional ability classification and game-related statistics. Several anthropometric measurements were obtained for 52 out of 91 eligible players nationwide. Performance was assessed in seven sport-specific field tests (5m sprint, 20m sprint with ball, suicide, maximal pass, pass for accuracy, spot shot and lay-ups) and game-related statistics (free-throw points scored per match, two- and three-point field-goals scored per match, and their sum). Association between variables, and predictivity was assessed by correlation and regression analysis, respectively. Players were grouped into four Classes of increasing functional ability (A-D). One-way ANOVA with Bonferroni’s correction for multiple comparisons was used to assess differences between Classes. Sitting height and functional ability Class especially correlated with performance outcomes, but wheelchair basketball experience and skinfolds did not. Game-related statistics and sport-specific field-test scores all showed significant correlation with each other. Upper arm circumference and/or maximal pass and lay-ups test scores were able to explain 42 to 59% of variance in game-related statistics (P<0.001). A clear difference in performance was only found for functional ability Class A and D. Conclusion: In younger wheelchair basketball players, sitting height positively contributes to performance. The maximal pass and lay-ups test should be carefully considered in younger wheelchair basketball training plans. Functional ability Class reflects to a limited extent the actual differences in performance.     

Modeling the Offensive-Defensive Interaction and Resulting Outcomes in Basketball

Purpose

We analyzed the interaction between offensive (i.e. space creation dynamics -SCDs) and defensive (i.e. space protection dynamics—SPDs) actions in six play outcomes (free shot, contested shot, new SCD, reset, foul, and turnover) in Spanish professional basketball games.

Method

Data consisted of 1548 SCD-SPD-outcome triples obtained from six play-off games. We used Bayesian methods to compute marginal probabilities of six outcomes following five different SCDs. We also computed probabilities of the six outcomes following the 16 most frequent SCD-SPD combinations.

Results

The pick action (e.g. pick and roll, pop and pop) was the most prevalent SCD (33%). However, this SCD did not produce the highest probability of a free shot (0.235). The highest probability of a free shot followed the SCD without ball (0.409). The pick was performed not only to attempt scoring but also to initiate offenses, as it produced the highest probability leading to a new SCD (0.403). Additionally, the SPD performed influenced the outcome of the SCD. This reinforces the notion that the opposition (offensive-defensive interaction) should be considered. To the best of our knowledge, in team sports, this is the first study to successfully model the tactical features involved in offense-defense interactions. Our analyses revealed that the high frequency of occurrence of some SCDs may be justified not only by an associated high probability of free shots but also by the possibility of progressively create more space in the defense (i.e. a new SCD as outcome). In the second case, it evidences offensive strategic features of progressive disruption of the defensive system through the concatenation of subsequent offensive actions.     

Spatial Generalization in Operant Learning: Lessons from Professional Basketball

In operant learning, behaviors are reinforced or inhibited in response to the consequences of similar actions taken in the past. However, because in natural environments the “same” situation never recurs, it is essential for the learner to decide what “similar” is so that he can generalize from experience in one state of the world to future actions in different states of the world. The computational principles underlying this generalization are poorly understood, in particular because natural environments are typically too complex to study quantitatively. In this paper we study the principles underlying generalization in operant learning of professional basketball players. In particular, we utilize detailed information about the spatial organization of shot locations to study how players adapt their attacking strategy in real time according to recent events in the game. To quantify this learning, we study how a make \ miss from one location in the court affects the probabilities of shooting from different locations. We show that generalization is not a spatially-local process, nor is governed by the difficulty of the shot. Rather, to a first approximation, players use a simplified binary representation of the court into 2 pt and 3 pt zones. This result indicates that rather than using low-level features, generalization is determined by high-level cognitive processes that incorporate the abstract rules of the game.     

Basketball ability testing and category for players with mental retardation: 8-month training effect

Although sport for athletes with mental retardation (MR) is achieving an important role, the literature concerning basketball tests and training is still poor. The aims of this study were to verify whether the basketball test battery could be an appropriate modality to classify the players in the Promotion (Pro) category, to assess basketball abilities before (PRE) and after (POST) an 8-month training in players with MR in relation to Competitive (Comp) and Pro categories, to analyze the variation of specific basketball abilities based on subjects' MR diagnosis. Forty-one male basketball players with MR (17 Comp and 24 Pro; age range 18-45 years; MR: 15% mild, 54% moderate, 29% severe, and 2% profound) were assessed PRE and POST training through the basketball test battery, which assessed 4 ability levels of increasing difficulty (from I to IV), each one characterized by the analysis of fundamental areas (ball handling, reception, passing, and shooting). Level I was significantly changed after the intervention period regardless of the Category, whereas shooting was affected by the interaction between Category and Intervention. The results showed significant differences between categories in the scores of individual global, level I, level II, level III, and in all fundamental areas. Individual global score in both categories significantly increased. The players of Comp significantly improved in level III, in ball handling, reception, passing, and shooting scores. The players of Pro improved significantly in level II, in ball handling, reception, and passing scores. Individual global, ability levels I-III, and fundamental area scores were negatively correlated to the MR level indicating that the players with a lower MR obtained higher ability scores. In conclusion, it was found that the basketball test battery could be useful for improving and monitoring training in both Comp and Pro players.     

TRAINING-INDUCED CHANGES IN DRAG-FLICK TECHNIQUE IN FEMALE FIELD HOCKEY PLAYERS

The penalty corner is one of the most important goal plays in field hockey. The drag-flick is used less by women than men in a penalty corner. The aim of this study was to describe training-induced changes in the drag-flick technique in female field hockey players. Four female players participated in the study. The VICON optoelectronic system (Oxford Metrics, Oxford, UK) measured the kinematic parameters of the drag-flick with six cameras sampling at 250 Hz, prior to and after training. Fifteen shots were captured for each subject. A Wilcoxon test assessed the differences between pre-training and post-training parameters. Two players received specific training twice a week for 8 weeks; the other two players did not train. The proposed drills improved the position of the stick at the beginning of the shot (p < 0.05), the total distance of the shot (p < 0.05) and the rotation radius at ball release (p < 0.01). It was noted that all players had lost speed of the previous run. Further studies should include a larger sample, in order to provide more information on field hockey performance.     

Reciprocity on the Hardwood: Passing Patterns among Professional Basketball Players

Past theory and research view reciprocal resource sharing as a fundamental building block of human societies. Most studies of reciprocity dynamics have focused on trading among individuals in laboratory settings. But if motivations to engage in these patterns of resource sharing are powerful, then we should observe forms of reciprocity even in highly structured group environments in which reciprocity does not clearly serve individual or group interests. To this end, we investigated whether patterns of reciprocity might emerge among teammates in professional basketball games. Using data from logs of National Basketball Association (NBA) games of the 2008–9 season, we estimated a series of conditional logistic regression models to test the impact of different factors on the probability that a given player would assist another player in scoring a basket. Our analysis found evidence for a direct reciprocity effect in which players who had “received” assists in the past tended to subsequently reciprocate their benefactors. Further, this tendency was time-dependent, with the probability of repayment highest soon after receiving an assist and declining as game time passed. We found no evidence for generalized reciprocity – a tendency to “pay forward” assists – and only very limited evidence for indirect reciprocity – a tendency to reward players who had sent others many assists. These findings highlight the power of reciprocity to shape human behavior, even in a setting characterized by extensive planning, division of labor, quick decision-making, and a focus on inter-group competition.     

"Points Ain't Everything": Emergent Goals and Average and Percent Understandings in the Play of Basketball among African American Students

This study examines the shifting nature of the cultural practice of basketball as players move from middle school to high school play and related shifts in players' statistical evaluations linked to play. Thirty-four middle and high school African American basketball players were observed and interviewed as they participated in the practice of basketball. Results show that the practice of basketball differs at these two levels of play corresponding to differences in mathematics linked to play.     

System of the performance evaluation criteria weighted per positions in the basketball game

Based upon the expertise performed by ten basketball professional relative importance coefficients with regard to positions in the game were determined for nineteen performance evaluation criteria. High degree of interobservers agreement was obtained concerning all positions (from 0.91 to 0.98). In concordance with the obtained results the particular play positions were explicitly described, as well as similarities and differences between them were determined from the aspect of the single criteria importance. The following criteria had an above average importance for the: Position 1--levels of defensive pressure, transition defense efficiency, the ball control, passing skills, dribble penetration, outside shots, and transition offence efficiency; Position 2--level of defensive pressure, transition defense efficiency, outside shots, dribble penetration, offence without the ball, and transition offence efficiency; Position 3--transition defense efficiency, outside shots, dribble penetration, offense without the ball, free throws, and transition offence efficiency; Position 4--defensive and offensive rebounding efficiency, inside shots, dribble penetration, efficiency of screening, and free throws; Position 5--defensive and offensive rebounding efficiency, inside shots, dribble penetration, efficiency of screening, drawing fouls and three-point plays, and free throws. The research results could be usefully applied by the basketball practitioners to selecting and following-up players, the teching-learning process directing and improving, the training process programming and the transformational effects controlling.     

An intensive combined training program modulates physical, physiological, biomotoric, and technical parameters in women basketball players

The purpose of this study was the investigation of the effects of an intensive combined training program based on the pretest scores of a university women's basketball team on their physical, physiological, biomotoric, and technical features. Twenty-four university volunteers were equally divided into two groups: an experiment group (intensive combined training group) and a control (technical training) group. The 10-week intensive combined training program was performed on the experiment group according to their pretest outcomes. Before and at the end of each period of training, which was scheduled four times a week, the physical, physiological, biomotoric, and technical performance of each subject were determined. With respect to the pre- and posttest measurements, the basketball group showed significant differences (p < 0.05) in girth measurements (shoulder, waist, hip, arm, thigh, and calf), in skinfold measurements (percent body fat), in physiological measurements (vital capacity and forced vital capacity), in biomotoric tests (right-left hand grip, dynamic and countermovement jump, sit-up, push-up, 1500-m endurance), and in technique tests (free and inside shooting). It can be concluded that a 10-week intensive combined training program performed on university women basketball players had a significant effect on improving their physical, physiological, biomotoric, and technical features. It proved to be highly recommendable for female basketball players who are preparing for short-term tournaments; the basketball group in this study won a championship.     

Differences in conative characteristics and perceived group cohesion of the basketball players playing in different positions in the team

Identification of differences in individual conative characteristics and in perceived group cohesion of the basketball players playing in different positions in the team could provide guidelines for a better selection of basketball players and better coaching work. The aim of our study was to determine the differences in relation to the positions of guards and forwards/centres, and the four major positions in the team. The final sample of subjects (74 basketball players) is selected from the initial sample of 107 subjects, selected from nine men's senior basketball teams that played in A-1 Croatian men's basketball league championship in 2006/2007. The results showed no statistically significant difference between basketball players who play in different positions in the team, neither in relation to two basic positions in the team (guards as opposed to forwards/centres), nor in relation to the four positions in the team (point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward/centre).     

Predicting performance and injury resilience from movement quality and fitness scores in a basketball team over 2 years

The purpose of this study was to see if specific tests of fitness and movement quality could predict injury resilience and performance in a team of basketball players over 2 years (2 playing seasons). It was hypothesized that, in a basketball population, movement and fitness scores would predict performance scores and that movement and fitness scores would predict injury resilience. A basketball team from a major American university (N = 14) served as the test population in this longitudinal trial. Variables linked to fitness, movement ability, speed, strength, and agility were measured together with some National Basketball Association (NBA) combine tests. Dependent variables of performance indicators (such as games and minutes played, points scored, assists, rebounds, steal, and blocks) and injury reports were tracked for the subsequent 2 years. Results showed that better performance was linked with having a stiffer torso, more mobile hips, weaker left grip strength, and a longer standing long jump, to name a few. Of the 3 NBA combine tests administered here, only a faster lane agility time had significant links with performance. Some movement qualities and torso endurance were not linked. No patterns with injury emerged. These observations have implications for preseason testing and subsequent training programs in an attempt to reduce future injury and enhance playing performance.     

Increased aggression during human group contests when competitive ability is more similar

Theoretical analyses and empirical studies have revealed that conflict escalation is more likely when individuals are more similar in resource-holding potential (RHP). Conflicts can also occur between groups, but it is unknown whether conflicts also escalate more when groups are more similar in RHP. We tested this hypothesis in humans, using data from two professional sports competitions: football (the Bundesliga, the German first division of football) and basketball (the NBA, the North American National Basketball Association). We defined RHP based on the league ranks of the teams involved in the competition (i.e. their competitive ability) and measured conflict escalation by the number of fouls committed. We found that in both sports the number of fouls committed increased when the difference in RHP was smaller. Thus, we provide what is to our best knowledge the first evidence that, as in conflicts between individuals, conflicts escalate more when groups are more similar in RHP.     

Accelerated Return to Play in Professional Basketball Players With Surgically-Treated Metacarpal Shaft Fractures

BackgroundTraditional rehabilitation protocols for surgically treated metacarpal shaft fracture allow for return to play at 6-8 weeks post-operative. This may be devastating for the elite athlete. We outline a protocol that may allow for professional basketball players to successfully return to sport within four weeks following surgery.MethodsProfessional basketball players who sustained non-thumb metacarpal shaft fractures were included. All athletes underwent open reduction and internal fixation of the injured metacarpal. Patients were subsequently enrolled into an accelerated rehabilitation protocol.ResultsThe five athletes in our case series successfully passed return to sport testing within four weeks of surgery.ConclusionA plate and screw construct can potentially allow for professional basketball players to return to play in half the time. Future research studies should include a larger pool of athletes to further investigate accelerated rehabilitation following surgical fixation of metacarpal fractures. Level of Evidence: IV     

A cross-cultural analysis of positive illusions and sport performance levels in American, Croatian, and Norwegian basketball players

The present study examined the degree to which positive illusion is associated with sport performance in basketball players among 3 different cultures: The United States of America, Croatia, and Norway. Positive illusion is a cognitive characteristic that is common in mentally healthy individuals, and becomes especially important in the athletic arena. The model tested in this study depicts the level of positive illusion as the main predictor variable and the performance of the basketball players as the criterion variable. The Positive Illusion Sports Scale was used to measure the predictor variable while The Basketball Evaluation System was used to measure the criterion variable. Participants were 239 competitive male basketball players, 122 from USA, 57 from Croatia and 60 from Norway. Results showed that positive illusion was directly (positively) related to actual success and that these relationships were statistically significant and consistent with positive illusion as a theoretical construct for predicting behavior and success.     

Effects of large gatherings on the COVID-19 epidemic: Evidence from professional and college sports

We compare COVID-19 case loads and mortality across counties that hosted more versus fewer NHL hockey games, NBA basketball games, and NCAA basketball games during the early months of 2020, before any large outbreaks were identified. We find that hosting one additional NHL/NBA game in March 2020 leads to an additional 7520 cases and 658 deaths. Similarly, we find that hosting an additional NCAA Division 1 men's basketball game in March 2020 results in an additional 34 deaths. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the per-game fatality costs were 200–300 times greater than per-game spending.     

Heart rate responses and technical comparison between small- vs. large-sided games in elite professional soccer

This study aims to examine the difference in heart rate (HR) responses and technical activities placed upon European elite players when exposed to 2-sided games differing in the number of players and playing area. Fifteen male soccer players from a Scottish Premier League team (26.3 ± 4.85 years, 182.4 ± 6.99 cm, 79.5 ± 8.05 kg, VO2max of 54.36 ± 5.45 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)) performed both small (3 vs. 3 plus goalkeepers) and large (9 vs. 9 plus goalkeepers) sided games each lasting for 3 × 5 minutes interspersed with 4-minute passive recovery during the 2009-2010 season. The HR responses and players' technical actions were recorded throughout all sided games. Results show that small-sided games (SSG) induced significantly (p < 0.05, large effect) higher HR responses as compared to large-sided games. Furthermore, during SSGs, players spent significantly longer time in the >85% maximal HR zone (p < 0.05, large effect) as compared to large-sided games. Technical analysis revealed a large practical difference (effect size ranged from 1.5 to 21.2) between small- and large-sided games: less number of blocks, headers, interceptions, passes, and receives but more dribbles, shots, and tackles in SSG. Furthermore, SSG induced significantly lesser total ball contacts per game (p < 0.05, large effect) but significantly greater ball contacts per individual (p < 0.05, large effect) when compared to larger-sided games. The different technical requirements also enable coaches to carry out training games more suitable to specific playing positions such as SSG for midfielders (more dribbles, tackles, and ball contacts per player) strikers (more shots), and large-sided games for defender (more blocks, headers, and interceptions).