Environmental variation and cohort effects in an Antarctic predator

Understanding the potential influence of environmental variation experienced by animals during early stages of development on their subsequent demographic performance can contribute to our understanding of population processes and aid in predicting impacts of global climate change on ecosystem functioning. Using data from 4178 tagged female Weddell seal pups born into 20 different cohorts, and 30 years of observations of the tagged seals, we evaluated the hypothesis that environmental conditions experienced by young seals, either indirectly through maternal effects and/or directly during the initial period of juvenile nutritional independence, have long‐term effects on individual demographic performance. We documented an approximately three‐fold difference in the proportion of each cohort that returned to the pupping colonies and produced a pup within the first 10 years after birth. We found only weak evidence for a correlation between annual environmental conditions during the juvenile‐independence period and cohort recruitment probability. Instead, the data strongly supported an association between cohort recruitment probability and the regional extent of sea ice experienced by the mother during the winter the pup was in utero. We suggest that inter‐annual variation in winter sea‐ice extent influences the foraging success of pregnant seals by moderating the regional abundance of competing predators that cannot occupy areas of consolidated sea ice, and by directly influencing the abundance of mid‐trophic prey species that are sea‐ice obligates. We hypothesize that this environmentally‐induced variation in maternal nutrition dictates the extent of maternal energetic investment in offspring, resulting in cohort variation in mean size of pups at weaning which, in turn, contributes to an individual's phenotype and its ultimate fitness. These linkages between sea ice and trophic dynamics, combined with demonstrated and predicted changes in the duration and extent of sea ice associated with climate change, suggest significant alterations in Antarctic marine ecosystems in the future.     

Comparative population dynamics of large and small mammals in the Northern Hemisphere: deterministic and stochastic forces

Deterministic feedbacks within populations interact with extrinsic, stochastic processes to generate complex patterns of animal abundance over time and space. Animals inherently differ in their responses to fluctuating environments due to differences in body sizes and life history traits. However, controversy remains about the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic forces in shaping population dynamics of large and small mammals. We hypothesized that effects of environmental stochasticity and density dependence are stronger in small mammal populations relative to their effects in large mammal populations and thus differentiate the patterns of population dynamics between them. We conducted an extensive, comparative analysis of population dynamics in large and small mammals to test our hypothesis, using seven population parameters to describe general dynamic patterns for 23 (14 species) time series of observations of abundance of large mammals and 38 (21 species) time series for small mammals. We used state‐space models to estimate the strength of direct and delayed density dependence as well as the strength of environmental stochasticity. We further used phylogenetic comparative analysis to detect differences in population dynamic patterns and individual population parameters, respectively, between large and small mammals. General population dynamic patterns differed between large and small mammals. However, the strength of direct and delayed density dependence was comparable between large and small mammals. Moreover, the variances of population growth rates and environmental stochasticity were greater in small mammals than in large mammals. Therefore, differences in population response to stochastic forces and strength of environmental stochasticity are the primary factor that differentiates population dynamic patterns between large and small mammal species.     

Long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods,data management,and long‐term population trends

Long‐term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long‐term viability of species, but large‐scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long‐term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long‐term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long‐term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year‐to‐year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large‐scale and long‐term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long‐term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long‐term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life‐history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long‐term observational study has stimulated the development of metapopulation models and provided an opportunity to test model predictions. This combination of empirical studies and modeling has facilitated the study of key phenomena in spatial dynamics, such as extinction threshold and extinction debt.     

Habitat-related heterogeneity in breeding in a metapopulation of the Iberian lynx

Identifying attributes associated with good breeding habitat is critical for understanding animal population dynamics. However, the association between environmental heterogeneity and breeding probability has been often overlooked in habitat analyses. We evaluated habitat quality in a metapopulation of the endangered Iberian lynx Lynx pardinus by analyzing spatiotemporal patterns in breeding records. Data summarizing successful production of litters after emergence from dens over four years within 13 lynx territories were examined. We designed a set of generalized linear mixed models representing different hypotheses regarding how patterns in breeding records relate to environmental heterogeneity. Environmental heterogeneity was described by two characteristics: 1) a landscape index measured in lynx territories indicative of time‐averaged prey availability and 2) yearly variability in prey abundance not captured with this index. By including the random effect of the lynx territory we also accounted for other territory‐specific effects on reproduction. We found significant differences in yearly prey density dynamics among lynx territories. However, temporal variation in prey density contributed poorly to explaining lynx breeding. The most parsimonious model included the landscape structure as the only effect explaining breeding patterns. A multinomial‐model‐representation of the landscape hypothesis explained nearly 50% of variability in breeding records. Results pointed to the existence of a habitat quality gradient associated with particular landscape structures influencing lynx habitat selection and breeding performance. Underlying this gradient was time‐averaged prey availability. Probably as a result of long‐term fitness strategies in long‐lived territorial species, the short‐term fluctuations in prey availability had a minor influence. Our results illustrate how habitat inferences can be enhanced by incorporating the link between spatiotemporal patterns in reproduction and environmental heterogeneity.     

FLUCTUATING SELECTION AND THE MAINTENANCE OF INDIVIDUAL AND SEX‐SPECIFIC DIET SPECIALIZATION IN FREE‐LIVING OYSTERCATCHERS

Fluctuating and disruptive selection are important mechanisms for maintaining intrapopulation trait variation. Nonetheless, few field studies quantify selection pressures over long periods and identify what causes them to fluctuate. Diet specialists in oystercatchers differ in short‐term payoffs (intake), but their long‐term payoffs are hypothesized to be condition dependent. We test whether phenotypic selection on diet specialization fluctuates between years due to the frequency of specialists, competitor density, prey abundance, and environmental conditions. Short‐term payoffs proved to be poor predictors of long‐term fitness payoffs of specialization. Sex‐differences in diet specialization were maintained by opposing directional fecundity and viability selection between the sexes. Contrasting other studies, selection on individual diet specialization was neither negative frequency‐ or density‐dependent nor dependent on prey abundance. Notwithstanding, viability selection fluctuated strongly (stabilizing?disruptive) over the 26‐year study period: slightly favoring generalists in most years, but strongly disfavoring generalists in rare harsh winters, suggesting generalists cannot cope with extreme conditions. Although selection fluctuated, mean selection on specialists was weak, which can explain how individual specialization can persist over long periods. Because rare events can dramatically affect long‐term selective landscapes, more care should be taken to match the timescale of evolutionary studies to the temporal variability of critical environmental conditions.     

Native insect herbivory overwhelms context dependence to limit complex invasion dynamics of exotic weeds

Understanding the role of consumers in density‐dependent plant population dynamics is a long‐standing goal in ecology. However, the generality of herbivory effects across heterogeneous landscapes is poorly understood due to the pervasive influence of context‐dependence. We tested effects of native insect herbivory on the population dynamics of an exotic thistle, Cirsium vulgare, in a field experiment replicated across eight sites in eastern Nebraska. Using hierarchical Bayesian analysis and density‐dependent population models, we found potential for explosive low‐density population growth (λ > 5) and complex density fluctuations under herbivore exclusion. However, herbivore access drove population decline (λ < 1), suppressing complex fluctuations. While plant–herbivore interaction outcomes are famously context‐dependent, we demonstrated that herbivores suppress potentially invasive populations throughout our study region, and this qualitative outcome is insensitive to environmental context. Our novel use of Bayesian demographic modelling shows that native insect herbivores consistently prevent hard‐to‐predict fluctuations of weeds in environments otherwise susceptible to invasion.     

Population dynamics of the spruce bark beetle: a long‐term study

Bark beetle population dynamics is thought to be primarily driven by bottom‐up forces affecting insect performance and host tree resistance. Although there are theoretical predictions and empirical evidences that predation and parasitism may play an important role in driving bark beetle population fluctuations, long‐term studies testing the role of both biotic and abiotic controls on population dynamics are still rare. The aim of the study was to quantify the relative importance of predation, negative density feedback and abiotic factors in driving Ips typographus population dynamics. We analyzed a unique time series of population density of I. typographus and its main predator Thanasimus formicarius over almost two decades in four regions across Sweden. We used a discrete population model and a multi‐model inference approach to evaluate the importance of both bottom up and top down factors. We found that availability of breeding substrates in the form of storm‐felled trees was the main outbreak trigger, while strong intra‐specific competition for host trees was the main endogenous regulating factor. Although temperature‐related metrics are known to have strong individual effect on I. typographus development and number of generations, they did not emerge as important drivers of population dynamics. A positive effect of low summer rainfall was evident only in the region located in the southernmost and warmest part of the spruce distribution range in Sweden. Predator density did not emerge as an important prey regulating factor. As the reported damage from storms seems to have increased across whole Europe, spruce forests are expected to be increasingly susceptible to large outbreaks of I. typographus with important economic and ecological consequences for boreal ecosystems. However, the observed negative density feedback seems to be a natural regulating mechanism that impedes a strong long‐term propagation of the outbreaks.     

Interactive effects of exogenous and endogenous factors on demographic rates of an African rodent

Exogenous and endogenous environmental factors can have simultaneous additive as well as interacting effects on life‐history traits. Ignoring such interactions can lead to a biased understanding of variability in demographic rates and consequently population dynamics. These interactions have been the focus of decades‐long debates on the mechanisms underlying small mammal population fluctuations. They have often been studied indirectly through seasonal effects, but studies considering them directly and more mechanistically are rare. We investigated the joint effects of exogenous (temperature, food availability) and endogenous (population density) factors on the demographic rates of a group‐living diurnal rodent, the African striped mouse Rhabdomys pumilio using nine‐year mark–recapture data from a population in the Succulent Karoo, South Africa. In general, higher temperatures and lower food availability were associated with higher survival, whereas high population densities were either beneficial or detrimental to survival depending on interacting food availability. High reproductive rates were related to lower temperatures, higher food availability and lower population density, and interactions among environmental factors mediated the strength of these relationships. Our study highlights the complex ways in which different environmental factors can interact to shape demographic rates and emphasizes the importance of explicitly including interactions among exogenous and endogenous factors into studies of population dynamics.     

Population changes in Czech passerines are predicted by their life‐history and ecological traits

A species’ susceptibility to environmental change might be predicted by its ecological and life‐history traits. However, the effects of such traits on long‐term bird population trends have not yet been assessed using a comprehensive set of explanatory variables. Moreover, the extent to which phylogeny affects patterns in the interspecific variability of population changes is unclear. Our study focuses on the interspecific variability in long‐term population trends and annual population fluctuations of 68 passerine species in the Czech Republic, assessing the effects of eight life‐history and five ecological traits. Ordination of life‐history traits of 68 species revealed a life‐history gradient, from ‘r‐selected’ (e.g. small body mass, short lifespan, high fecundity, large clutch size) to ‘K‐selected’ species. r‐selected species had more negative population trends than K‐selected species, and seed‐eaters declined compared with insectivores. We suggest that the r‐selected species probably suffer from widespread environmental changes, and the seed‐eaters from current changes in agriculture and land use. Populations of residents fluctuated more than populations of short‐distance migrants, probably due to the effect of winter climatic variability. Variance partitioning at three taxonomic levels showed that whereas population trends, population fluctuations and habitat specialization expressed the highest variability at the species level, most life‐history traits were more variable at higher taxonomic levels. These results explain the loss of statistical power in the relationship between life histories and population trends after controlling for phylogeny. However, we argue that a lack of significance after controlling for phylogeny should not reduce the value of such results for conservation purposes.     

Thermal acclimation modulates the impacts of temperature and enrichment on trophic interaction strengths and population dynamics

Global change affects individual phenotypes and biotic interactions, which can have cascading effects up to the ecosystem level. However, the role of environmentally induced phenotypic plasticity in species interactions is poorly understood, leaving a substantial gap in our knowledge of the impacts of global change on ecosystems. Using a cladoceran–dragonfly system, we experimentally investigated the effects of thermal acclimation, acute temperature change and enrichment on predator functional response and metabolic rate. Using our experimental data, we next parameterized a population dynamics model to determine the consequences of these effects on trophic interaction strength and food‐chain stability. We found that (1) predation and metabolic rates of the dragonfly larvae increase with acute warming, (2) warm‐acclimated larvae have a higher maximum predation rate than cold‐acclimated ones, and (3) long‐term interaction strength increases with enrichment but decreases with both acclimation and acute temperatures. Overall, our experimental results show that thermal acclimation can buffer negative impacts of environmental change on predators and increase food‐web stability and persistence. We conclude that the effect of acclimation and, more generally, phenotypic plasticity on trophic interactions should not be overlooked if we aim to understand the effects of climate change and enrichment on species interaction strength and food‐web stability.     

Plastic reproductive allocation as a buffer against environmental stochasticity – linking life history and population dynamics to climate

Empirical work suggest that long‐lived organisms have adopted risk sensitive reproductive strategies where individuals trade the amount of resources spent on reproduction versus survival according to expected future environmental conditions. Earlier studies also suggest that climate affects population dynamics both directly by affecting population vital rates and indirectly through long‐term changes in individual life histories. Using a seasonal and state‐dependent individual‐based model we investigated how environmental variability affects the selection of reproductive strategies and their effect on population dynamics. We found that: (1) dynamic, i.e. plastic, reproductive strategies were optimal in a variable climate. (2) Females in poor and unpredictable climatic regimes allocated fewer available resources in reproduction and more in own somatic growth. This resulted in populations with low population densities, and a high average female age and body mass. (3) Strong negative density dependence on offspring body mass and survival, along with co‐variation between climatic severity and population density, resulted in no clear negative climatic effects on reproductive success and offspring body mass. (4) Time series analyses of population growth rates revealed that populations inhabiting benign environments showed the clearest response to climatic perturbations as high population density prohibited an effective buffering of adverse climatic effects as individuals were not able to gain sufficient body reserves during summer. Regularly occurring harsh winters ‘harvested’ populations, resulting in persistent low densities, and released them from negative density dependent effects, resulting in high rewards for a given resource allocation.     

Sea ice predicts long‐term trends in Adélie penguin population growth,but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range‐wide multiscale analysis

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range‐wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., “prevailing” environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year‐to‐year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year‐to‐year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short‐term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short‐ and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.     

Intrinsic determinants of a population trend in timing of breeding in the wandering albatross

Numerous studies of wild animal species have documented that population level responses to environmental change are underpinned by individual level phenotypic plasticity. However, where the relationship between an individual trait and a climate variable occurs when both show a trend over time, phenotypic plasticity may be confounded by ageing. We investigated between and within individual change in laying date in the wandering albatross Diomedea exulans, a long‐lived species experiencing a dramatic decline in population size. Laying date has advanced over the last three decades. A mean‐centering analysis demonstrated that this pattern was driven by within‐individual changes as opposed to appearance or disappearance of phenotypes. Furthermore, a lack of between individual effect suggested the change resulted from ageing as opposed to phenotypic plasticity. Females varied significantly in rate of advance, such that those with low past reproductive rates exhibited a negative temporal trend in laying date, whereas birds with moderate to high past reproductive performance showed little change. The population trend was therefore driven by a subset with low past breeding success. An analysis of effects of timing of breeding on breeding success revealed stabilizing selection for relative laying date. Furthermore, current breeding success was positively related to past success rate, which suggests that there may be indirect selection against plasticity in this population. Our results show that population trends can arise from individual level change unrelated to prevailing environmental conditions, thus demonstrating the importance of longitudinal analyses in the interpretation of climate change effects.     

Hot spots become cold spots: coevolution in variable temperature environments

Antagonistic coevolution between hosts and parasites is a key process in the genesis and maintenance of biological diversity. Whereas coevolutionary dynamics show distinct patterns under favourable environmental conditions, the effects of more realistic, variable conditions are largely unknown. We investigated the impact of a fluctuating environment on antagonistic coevolution in experimental microcosms of Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 and lytic phage SBWΦ2. High‐frequency temperature fluctuations caused no deviations from typical coevolutionary arms race dynamics. However, coevolution was stalled during periods of high temperature under intermediate‐ and low‐frequency fluctuations, generating temporary coevolutionary cold spots. Temperature variation affected population density, providing evidence that eco‐evolutionary feedbacks act through variable bacteria–phage encounter rates. Our study shows that environmental fluctuations can drive antagonistic species interactions into and out of coevolutionary cold and hot spots. Whether coevolution persists or stalls depends on the frequency of change and the environmental optima of both interacting players.     

A bit of sex stabilizes host-parasite dynamics

To date, only a few studies have focused on the effects of sex on population dynamics. Previous models have typically found that sexual reproduction dampens population fluctuations. Although asexual and sexual reproduction are just the two endpoints along a continuum of varying rates of sex, previous work has ignored the effects of intermediate degrees of sex on population dynamics. Here we study the effects of partial sexual reproduction (i.e. sex occurs only every few generations or with small probability in each generation) on the coupled population dynamics of a Nicholson-Bailey host-parasite model. We show that complex dynamics are simplified for high host population growth rates if the frequency of sex is sufficiently high in both host and parasite: sex decreases fluctuations in population density, and leads to non-chaotic dynamics for population growth rates that would result in chaotic dynamics in the absence of sexual reproduction. However, the simplification does not increase gradually with an increasing frequency of sex but appears abruptly at low-to-intermediate frequencies of sex. For some parameter settings, intermediate frequencies of sexual reproduction can simplify the dynamics more than lower or higher frequencies. Thus, in agreement with earlier results, sexual reproduction typically stabilizes complex population dynamics in our models. Additionally, our results suggest that low-to-intermediate frequencies of sex may often be as (or even more) stabilizing as high frequencies.     

Exploring the impact of multidecadal environmental changes on the population genetic structure of a marine primary producer

Many marine protists form resting stages that can remain viable in coastal sediments for several decades. Their long‐term survival offers the possibility to explore the impact of changes in environmental conditions on population dynamics over multidecadal time scales. Resting stages of the phototrophic dinoflagellate Pentapharsodinium dalei were isolated and germinated from five layers in dated sediment cores from Koljö fjord, Sweden, spanning ca. 1910–2006. This fjord has, during the last century, experienced environmental fluctuations linked to hydrographic variability mainly driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Population genetic analyses based on six microsatellite markers revealed high genetic diversity and suggested that samples belonged to two clusters of subpopulations that have persisted for nearly a century. We observed subpopulation shifts coinciding with changes in hydrographic conditions. The large degree of genetic diversity and the potential for both fluctuation and recovery over longer time scales documented here, may help to explain the long‐term success of aquatic protists that form resting stages.     

Long‐term mammal and nocturnal bird trends are influenced by vegetation type,weather and climate in temperate woodlands

Many studies have documented the individual effects of variables such as vegetation, long‐term climate and short‐term weather on biodiversity. Few, however, have explicitly explored how interactions among these major drivers can influence species abundance. We used data from a 15‐year study (2002–2017) in the endangered temperate woodlands of south‐eastern Australia to test hypotheses associated with the effects of vegetation type, long‐term climate and short‐term weather on population trajectories of seven species of (largely) nocturnal mammals and birds. Despite prolonged drought conditions, there was a significant increase in the abundance of some species over time (e.g. the Eastern Grey Kangaroo). It is possible that destocking of domestic livestock may have reduced competition with Kangaroos, thereby facilitating increases in abundance. The Common Brushtail Possum and Common Ringtail Possum were significantly less likely to occur in replanted woodlands, possibly because of the paucity of nesting sites. We found no evidence that replanted woodlands are refuges for exotic pest species like the European Rabbit and Red Fox. Short‐ and long‐term rainfall and vegetation type had important independent and combined effects on animal abundance. That is, responses to periods of high short‐term rainfall were dependent on vegetation type and whether sites occurred in long‐term climatically wet versus climatically dry locations. For example, the Red Fox responded positively to high levels of short‐term rainfall, but only at climatically dry sites. Our results highlight the complementary value of different vegetation types across the landscape and the context‐specific responses of animals to short‐term fluctuations in moisture availability. They also underscore the value of long‐term monitoring at a landscape scale for examining how multiple interacting factors influence trends in animal abundance.     

Individual quality and age but not environmental or social conditions modulate costs of reproduction in a capital breeder

Costs associated with reproduction are widely known to play a role in the evolution of reproductive tactics with consequences to population and eco‐evolutionary dynamics. Evaluating these costs as they pertain to species in the wild remains an important goal of evolutionary ecology. Individual heterogeneity, including differences in individual quality (i.e., among‐individual differences in traits associated with survival and reproduction) or state, and variation in environmental and social conditions can modulate the costs of reproduction; however, few studies have considered effects of these factors simultaneously. Taking advantage of a detailed, long‐term dataset for a population of feral horses (Sable Island, Nova Scotia, Canada), we address the question of how intrinsic (quality, age), environmental (winter severity, location), and social conditions (group size, composition, sex ratio, density) influence the costs of reproduction on subsequent reproduction. Individual quality was measured using a multivariate analysis on a combination of four static and dynamic traits expected to depict heterogeneity in individual performance. Female quality and age interacted with reproductive status of the previous year to determine current reproductive effort, while no effect of social or environmental covariates was found. High‐quality females showed higher probabilities of giving birth and weaning their foal regardless of their reproductive status the previous year, while those of lower quality showed lower probabilities of producing foals in successive years. Middle‐aged (prime) females had the highest probability of giving birth when they had not reproduced the year before, but no such relationship with age was found among females that had reproduced the previous year, indicating that prime‐aged females bear higher costs of reproduction. We show that individual quality and age were key factors modulating the costs of reproduction in a capital breeder but that environmental or social conditions were not, highlighting the importance of considering multiple factors when studying costs of reproduction.     

The long‐term impacts of predators on prey: inducible defenses,population dynamics,and indirect effects

Despite the amount of research on the inducible defenses of prey against predators, our understanding of the long‐term significance of non‐lethal predators on prey phenotypes, prey population dynamics, and community structure has rarely been explored. Our objectives were to assess the effects of predators on prey defenses, prey population dynamics, and the relative magnitude of density‐ versus trait‐mediated indirect interactions (DMIIs and TMIIs) over multiple prey generations. Using a freshwater snail and three common snail predators, we constructed a series of community treatments with pond mesocosms that manipulated trophic structure, the identity of the top predator, and whether predators were caged or uncaged. We quantified snail phenotypes, snail population size, and resource abundance over multiple snail generations. We found that snails were expressing inducible defenses in our system although the magnitude of the responses varied over time and across predator species. Despite the expression of inducible defenses, caged predators did not reduce snail population size. There also was no evidence of TMIIs throughout the experiment suggesting that TMIIs have a minimal role in the long‐term structure of our communities. The absence of TMIIs was largely driven by the lack of predator‐induced reductions in resource consumption and the lack of consistent reductions in population size with predator cues. In contrast, we detected strong DMIIs associated with lethal predators suggesting that DMIIs are the dominant long‐term mechanism influencing community structure. Our results demonstrate that although predators can have significant effects on prey phenotypes and sometimes cause short‐term TMIIs, there may be few long‐term consequences of these responses on population dynamics and indirect interactions, at least within simple food webs. Research directed towards addressing the long‐term consequences of predator–prey interactions within communities will help to reveal whether the conclusions and predictions generated from short‐term experiments are applicable over ecological and evolutionary timescales.     

Mean conditions predict salt marsh plant community diversity and stability better than environmental variability

Environmental variability and the frequency of extreme events are predicted to increase in future climate scenarios; however, the role of fluctuations in shaping community composition, diversity and stability is not well understood. Identifying current patterns of association between measures of community stability and climatic means and variability will help elucidate the ways in which altered variability and mean conditions may change communities in the future. Salt marshes provide essential ecosystem services and are increasingly threatened by sea‐level rise, land‐use change, eutrophication and predator loss, yet the effects of temporal environmental variation on salt marshes remain unknown. We synthesized long‐term plant community monitoring data from 11 sites on both coasts of the United States. We used an information‐theoretic approach and linear models to determine the associations among long‐term mean conditions, interannual environmental variability, and plant community stability and diversity. We found that salt marsh community stability and diversity were more strongly related to long‐term means of temperature and precipitation than to interannual variation. Warm and wet environments had fewer species and less turnover among years. Our results suggest that communities in cool, dry environments may be more resilient to climate warming due to greater species richness and turnover. Mean conditions are sufficient to predict contemporary patterns of salt marsh plant community dynamics, but environmental variability may have stronger impacts as it increases with climate change.