Climate change and its impact on the forests of Kilimanjaro

Cloud forests are of great importance in the hydrological functioning of watersheds in subhumid East Africa. However, the montane forests of Mt. Kilimanjaro are heavily threatened by global change impacts. Based on an evaluation of over 1500 vegetation plots and interpretation of satellite imagery from 1976 and 2000, land-cover changes on Kilimanjaro were evaluated and their impact on the water balance estimated. While the vanishing glaciers of Kilimanjaro attract broad interest, the associated increase of frequency and intensity of fires on the slopes of Kilimanjaro is less conspicuous but ecologically far more significant. These climate change-induced fires have lead to changes in species composition and structure of the forests and to a downward shift of the upper forest line by several hundred metres. During the last 70 years, Kilimanjaro has lost nearly one-third of its forest cover, in the upper areas caused by fire, on the lower forest border mainly caused by clearing. The loss of 150 km² of cloud forest – the most effective source in the upper montane and subalpine fog interception zone – caused by fire during the last three decades means a considerable reduction in water yield. In contrast to common belief, global warming does not necessarily cause upward migration of plants and animals. On Kilimanjaro the opposite trend is under way, with consequences more harmful than those due to the loss of the showy ice cap of Africa's highest mountain.     

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70 years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.     

The impact and implications of climate change for bats

相似文献   

Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi

Most macrofungi produce ephemeral fruit bodies during autumn but some have adapted to spring fruiting. In this study, temporal changes in the time of spring fruiting in Norway and the UK during 1960–2007 have been investigated by statistical analyses of about 6000 herbarium and field records, covering 34 species. Nearly 30 per cent of the temporal variation in fruiting could be ascribed to spatial and species-specific effects. Correcting for these effects, linear trends towards progressively earlier fruiting were detected during the entire period in both Norway and the UK, with a change in average fruiting day of 18 days over the study period. Early fruiting was correlated with high winter temperatures in both countries, indicating that the observed phenological changes are likely due to earlier onset of spring. There were also significant correlations between climatic conditions in one year and timing of fruiting the following year, indicating that below-ground mycelia are influenced by climatic conditions over a longer time period before fruiting. Fruiting dates were, however, not strictly related to changes in vernal accumulated thermal time. Our results indicate that global warming has lead to progressively earlier fruiting of spring fungi in northwest Europe during the last half century.     

Synergistic effects of climate and land-use change on representation of African bats in priority conservation areas

Bats are considered important bioindicators and deliver key ecosystem services to humans. However, it is not clear how the individual and combined effects of climate change and land-use change will affect their conservation in the future. We used a spatial conservation prioritization framework to determine future shifts in the priority areas for the conservation of 169 bat species under projected climate and land-use change scenarios across Africa. Specifically, we modelled species distribution models under four different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon. We used land-use change scenarios within the spatial conservation prioritization framework to assess habitat quality in areas where bats may shift their distributions. Overall, bats’ representation within already existing protected areas in Africa was low (∼5% of their suitable habitat in protected areas which cover ∼7% of Africa). Accounting for future land-use change resulted in the largest shift in spatial priority areas for conservation actions, and species representation within priority areas for conservation actions decreased by ∼9%. A large proportion of spatial conservation priorities will shift from forested areas with little disturbance under present conditions to agricultural areas in the future. Planning land use to reduce impacts on bats in priority areas outside protected areas where bats will be shifting their ranges in the future is crucial to enhance their conservation and maintain the important ecosystem services they provide to humans.     

Climate change in size-structured ecosystems

One important aspect of climate change is the increase in average temperature, which will not only have direct physiological effects on all species but also indirectly modifies abundances, interaction strengths, food-web topologies, community stability and functioning. In this theme issue, we highlight a novel pathway through which warming indirectly affects ecological communities: by changing their size structure (i.e. the body-size distributions). Warming can shift these distributions towards dominance of small- over large-bodied species. The conceptual, theoretical and empirical research described in this issue, in sum, suggests that effects of temperature may be dominated by changes in size structure, with relatively weak direct effects. For example, temperature effects via size structure have implications for top-down and bottom-up control in ecosystems and may ultimately yield novel communities. Moreover, scaling up effects of temperature and body size from physiology to the levels of populations, communities and ecosystems may provide a crucially important mechanistic approach for forecasting future consequences of global warming.     

Forecasting the combined effects of climate and land use change on Mexican bats

Aim

Climate and land use change are among the most important threatening processes driving biodiversity loss, especially in the tropics. Although the potential impacts of each threat have been widely studied in isolation, few studies have assessed the impacts of climate and land cover change in combination. Here, we evaluate the exposure of a large mammalian clade, bats, to multiple scenarios of environmental change and dispersal to understand potential consequences for biodiversity conservation.

Location

Mexico.

Methods

We used ensemble species distribution models to forecast changes in environmental suitability for 130 bat species that occur in Mexico by 2050s under four dispersal assumptions and four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We identified regions with the strongest projected impacts for each scenario and assessed the overlap across scenarios.

Results

The combined effects of climate and land use change will cause an average reduction in environmental suitability for 51% of the species across their range, regardless of scenario. Overall, species show a mean decrease in environmental suitability in at least 46% of their current range in all scenarios of change and dispersal. Climate scenarios had a higher impact on species environmental suitability than land use scenarios. There was a spatial overlap of 43% across the four environmental change scenarios for the regions projected to have the strongest impacts.

Main conclusions

Combined effects of future environmental change may result in substantial declines in environmental suitability for Mexican bats even under optimistic scenarios. This study highlights the vulnerability of megadiverse regions and an indicator taxon to human disturbance. The consideration of combined threats can make an important difference in how we react to changes to conserve our biodiversity as they pose different challenges.

     

Climate change,unpredictable cold waves and possible brakes on plant migration

Aim Increases in annual mean temperature in the course of current climate change are expected to facilitate mass species migration towards higher altitudes and latitudes. However, this migration may be slowed, or even temporarily reversed, by infrequent and unpredictable episodes of low winter temperatures. Iran experienced a severe cold wave in January and February 2008, giving an opportunity to observe the effects on a large number of woody plant species, many growing further north than their natural ranges. Location The study was carried out in the National Botanical Garden of Iran (35°44′20.06″ N; 51°10′25.66″ E). Method To estimate the damage caused to each individual woody plant in the garden, we adopted the following protocol; at the start of the growing season, at the end of March and beginning of April 2008, all woody species were inspected for damage. In the case of evergreens this took the form of obvious damage to foliage, usually manifested as severe browning. In the case of deciduous species, damage was recognized by the failure of all or part of the plant to produce new leaves; all affected individual plants were labelled. In July all labelled plants were rechecked and, based on whole or partial above‐ground die‐back, a final list of damaged individuals was produced. Results As expected, the majority of native and exotic species introduced from cold temperate habitats showed no freezing injuries. Many woody species in the garden were damaged or killed, despite their previous survival and growth, in many cases for up to 40 years. The majority of taxa (101 out of a total of 145) that suffered freezing‐induced damage were evergreens. Main conclusions The results indicate that despite an increase in mean annual temperature, unpredictable lethal cold waves may retard the expansion of plants towards higher altitudes and latitudes. Broadleaved evergreen species from warm climates were particularly badly affected, with many species suffering high rates of mortality.     

Sensitivity to thermal extremes in Australian Drosophila implies similar impacts of climate change on the distribution of widespread and tropical species

Climatic factors influence the distribution of ectotherms, raising the possibility that distributions of many species will shift rapidly under climate change and/or that species will become locally extinct. Recent studies have compared performance curves of species from different climate zones and suggested that tropical species may be more susceptible to climate change than those from temperate environments. However, in other comparisons involving responses to thermal extremes it has been suggested that mid‐latitude populations are more susceptible. Using a group of 10 closely related Drosophila species with known tropical or widespread distribution, we undertake a detailed investigation of their growth performance curves and their tolerance to thermal extremes. Thermal sensitivity of life history traits (fecundity, developmental success, and developmental time) and adult heat resistance were similar in tropical and widespread species groups, while widespread species had higher adult cold tolerance under all acclimation regimes. Laboratory measurements of either population growth capacity or acute tolerance to heat and cold extremes were compared to daily air temperature under current (2002–2007) and future (2100) conditions to investigate if these traits could explain current distributions and, therefore, also forecast future effects of climate change. Life history traits examining the thermal sensitivity of population growth proved to be a poor predictor of current species distributions. In contrast, we validate that adult tolerance to thermal extremes provides a good correlate of current distributions. Thus, in their current distribution range, most of the examined species experience heat exposure close to, but rarely above, the functional heat resistance limit. Similarly, adult functional cold resistance proved a good predictor of species distribution in cooler climates. When using the species’ functional tolerance limits under a global warming scenario, we find that both tropical and widespread Drosophila species will face a similar proportional reduction in distribution range under future warming.     

Ovarian and uterine lymphatic drainage in Australian flying-foxes (genus Pteropus,suborder Megachiroptera)

Ovarian lymphatics of flying-foxes were traced to determine if they could transport hormones directly from ovary to ipsilateral uterine horn, thereby stimulating the localised endometrial growth which is characteristic of these animals. Intra-ovarian injections of ink and serial histological sections did not reveal any such connection. All major ovarian lymphatics and those from the cranial tip of each uterine horn drain cranially, terminating in 1 or 2 lymph nodes lying caudal to the ipsilateral kidney. For much of their course, the major ovarian lymphatics run in the adventitia of the ovarian venous sinus. This sinus encloses the coiled ovarian artery, which provides the major blood supply to the cranial end of the ipsilateral uterine horn. Some fine ovarian lymphatics run in the adventitia of the coiled ovarian artery. The enclosure of the coiled ovarian artery by the ovarian venous drainage is thought to provide the main route for transfer of steroids from ovarian vein to ovarian artery and thence to ipsilateral uterine horn. The ovarian lymphatics described here do not bypass the vascular pathway but provide an additional route for counter-or cross-current transfer of ovarian steroids to the ovarian arterial supply to the uterus.     

Climate change induced hybridization in flying squirrels

There is now unequivocal evidence for global climate change; however, its potential impacts on evolutionary processes remain unclear. Many species have responded to contemporary climate change through shifts in their geographic range. This could lead to increased sympatry between recently diverged species; likely increasing the potential for hybridization. Recently, following a series of warm winters, southern flying squirrels ( Glaucomys volans ) in Ontario, Canada rapidly expanded their northern range limit resulting in increased sympatry with the closely related northern flying squirrel ( Glaucomys sabrinus ). This provided the opportunity to test the prediction that contemporary climate change can act as a catalyst creating conditions for the formation of hybrid zones. Following extensive sampling and molecular analyses (nuclear and mitochondrial DNA), we identified the occurrence of hybridization between sympatric G. sabrinus and G. volans . There was evidence of backcrossing but not of extensive introgession, consistent with the hypothesis of recent rather than historic hybridization. To our knowledge, this is the first report of hybrid zone formation following a range expansion induced by contemporary climate change. This is also the first report of hybridization between North American flying squirrel species.     

Climate change and plant regeneration from seed

At the core of plant regeneration, temperature and water supply are critical drivers for seed dormancy (initiation, break) and germination. Hence, global climate change is altering these environmental cues and will preclude, delay, or enhance regeneration from seeds, as already documented in some cases. Along with compromised seedling emergence and vigour, shifts in germination phenology will influence population dynamics, and thus, species composition and diversity of communities. Altered seed maturation (including consequences for dispersal) and seed mass will have ramifications on life history traits of plants. Predicted changes in temperature and precipitation, and thus in soil moisture, will affect many components of seed persistence in soil, e.g. seed longevity, dormancy release and germination, and soil pathogen activity. More/less equitable climate will alter geographic distribution for species, but restricted migratory capacity in some will greatly limit their response. Seed traits for weedy species could evolve relatively quickly to keep pace with climate change enhancing their negative environmental and economic impact. Thus, increased research in understudied ecosystems, on key issues related to seed ecology, and on evolution of seed traits in nonweedy species is needed to more fully comprehend and plan for plant responses to global warming.     

Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch

In highly seasonal environments, offspring production by vertebrates is timed to coincide with the annual peak of resource availability. For herbivores, this resource peak is represented by the annual onset and progression of the plant growth season. As plant phenology advances in response to climatic warming, there is potential for development of a mismatch between the peak of resource demands by reproducing herbivores and the peak of resource availability. For migratory herbivores, such as caribou, development of a trophic mismatch is particularly likely because the timing of their seasonal migration to summer ranges, where calves are born, is cued by changes in day length, while onset of the plant-growing season on the same ranges is cued by local temperatures. Using data collected since 1993 on timing of calving by caribou and timing of plant growth in West Greenland, we document the consequences for reproductive success of a developing trophic mismatch between caribou and their forage plants. As mean spring temperatures at our study site have risen by more than 4 degrees C, caribou have not kept pace with advancement of the plant-growing season on their calving range. As a consequence, offspring mortality has risen and offspring production has dropped fourfold.     

Cascading effects of climate change on plankton community structure

Plankton communities account for at least half of global primary production and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Warming and acidification may alter the interaction chains in these communities from the bottom and top of the food web. Yet, the relative importance of these potentially complex interactions has not yet been quantified. Here, we examine the isolated and combined effects of warming, acidification, and reductions in phytoplankton and predator abundances in a series of factorial experiments. We find that warming directly impacts the top of the food web, but that the intermediate trophic groups are more strongly influenced by indirect effects mediated by altered top‐down interactions. Direct manipulations of predator and phytoplankton abundance reveal similar strong top‐down interactions following top predator decline. A meta‐analysis of published experiments further supports the conclusion that warming has stronger direct impacts on the top and bottom of the food web rather than the intermediate trophic groups, with important differences between freshwater and marine plankton communities. Our results reveal that the trophic effect of warming cascading down from the top of the plankton food web is a powerful agent of global change.     

Climate change and vegetation response

This study, as many other current investigations in palaeoecology is focused on the long-term dynamics of vegetation and the extent to which they are controlled by climate change. Climate and classes of climate change are defined and reviewed, and examples cited of vegetation response. The concepts of vegetation, plant community and equilibrium are examined, with particular emphasis on theories on short term dynamics developed by ecologists working with temperate and boreal forests. Vegetation response to climate change can be modified by anthropogenic factors, topographic diversity and soils, life-cycle characteristics and hysteresis.I am grateful for comments on an earlier version of this paper by Keith Bennett, Les Cwynar and Glen MacDonald, and I particularly appreciate the useful remarks by Colin Prentice.I am grateful for comments on an earlier version of this paper by Keith Bennett, Les Cwynar and Glen MacDonald, and I particularly appreciate the useful remarks by Colin Prentice.     

Climate extremes are associated with invertebrate taxonomic and functional composition in mountain lakes

Climate change is expected to increase climate variability and the occurrence of extreme climatic events, with potentially devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, little is known about the role of climate extremes in structuring aquatic communities or the interplay between climate and local abiotic and biotic factors. Here, we examine the relative influence of climate and local abiotic and biotic conditions on biodiversity and community structure in lake invertebrates. We sampled aquatic invertebrates and measured environmental variables in 19 lakes throughout California, USA, to test hypotheses of the relationship between climate, local biotic and environmental conditions, and the taxonomic and functional structure of aquatic invertebrate communities. We found that, while local biotic and abiotic factors such as habitat availability and conductivity were the most consistent predictors of alpha diversity, extreme climate conditions such as maximum summer temperature and dry‐season precipitation were most often associated with multivariate taxonomic and functional composition. Specifically, sites with high maximum temperatures and low dry‐season precipitation housed communities containing high abundances of large predatory taxa. Furthermore, both climate dissimilarity and abiotic dissimilarity determined taxonomic turnover among sites (beta diversity). These findings suggest that while local‐scale environmental variables may predict alpha diversity, climatic variability is important to consider when projecting broad‐scale aquatic community responses to the extreme temperature and precipitation events that are expected for much of the world during the next century.     

Climate change and ocean acidification effects on seagrasses and marine macroalgae

Although seagrasses and marine macroalgae (macro‐autotrophs) play critical ecological roles in reef, lagoon, coastal and open‐water ecosystems, their response to ocean acidification (OA) and climate change is not well understood. In this review, we examine marine macro‐autotroph biochemistry and physiology relevant to their response to elevated dissolved inorganic carbon [DIC], carbon dioxide [CO₂], and lower carbonate [CO₃^2?] and pH. We also explore the effects of increasing temperature under climate change and the interactions of elevated temperature and [CO₂]. Finally, recommendations are made for future research based on this synthesis. A literature review of >100 species revealed that marine macro‐autotroph photosynthesis is overwhelmingly C₃ (≥ 85%) with most species capable of utilizing HCO₃^?; however, most are not saturated at current ocean [DIC]. These results, and the presence of CO₂‐only users, lead us to conclude that photosynthetic and growth rates of marine macro‐autotrophs are likely to increase under elevated [CO₂] similar to terrestrial C₃ species. In the tropics, many species live close to their thermal limits and will have to up‐regulate stress‐response systems to tolerate sublethal temperature exposures with climate change, whereas elevated [CO₂] effects on thermal acclimation are unknown. Fundamental linkages between elevated [CO₂] and temperature on photorespiration, enzyme systems, carbohydrate production, and calcification dictate the need to consider these two parameters simultaneously. Relevant to calcifiers, elevated [CO₂] lowers net calcification and this effect is amplified by high temperature. Although the mechanisms are not clear, OA likely disrupts diffusion and transport systems of H⁺ and DIC. These fluxes control micro‐environments that promote calcification over dissolution and may be more important than CaCO₃ mineralogy in predicting macroalgal responses to OA. Calcareous macroalgae are highly vulnerable to OA, and it is likely that fleshy macroalgae will dominate in a higher CO₂ ocean; therefore, it is critical to elucidate the research gaps identified in this review.