Multisensory Oddity Detection as Bayesian Inference

A key goal for the perceptual system is to optimally combine information from all the senses that may be available in order to develop the most accurate and unified picture possible of the outside world. The contemporary theoretical framework of ideal observer maximum likelihood integration (MLI) has been highly successful in modelling how the human brain combines information from a variety of different sensory modalities. However, in various recent experiments involving multisensory stimuli of uncertain correspondence, MLI breaks down as a successful model of sensory combination. Within the paradigm of direct stimulus estimation, perceptual models which use Bayesian inference to resolve correspondence have recently been shown to generalize successfully to these cases where MLI fails. This approach has been known variously as model inference, causal inference or structure inference. In this paper, we examine causal uncertainty in another important class of multi-sensory perception paradigm – that of oddity detection and demonstrate how a Bayesian ideal observer also treats oddity detection as a structure inference problem. We validate this approach by showing that it provides an intuitive and quantitative explanation of an important pair of multi-sensory oddity detection experiments – involving cues across and within modalities – for which MLI previously failed dramatically, allowing a novel unifying treatment of within and cross modal multisensory perception. Our successful application of structure inference models to the new ‘oddity detection’ paradigm, and the resultant unified explanation of across and within modality cases provide further evidence to suggest that structure inference may be a commonly evolved principle for combining perceptual information in the brain.     

Bayesian Inference from Count Data Using Discrete Uniform Priors

We consider a set of sample counts obtained by sampling arbitrary fractions of a finite volume containing an homogeneously dispersed population of identical objects. We report a Bayesian derivation of the posterior probability distribution of the population size using a binomial likelihood and non-conjugate, discrete uniform priors under sampling with or without replacement. Our derivation yields a computationally feasible formula that can prove useful in a variety of statistical problems involving absolute quantification under uncertainty. We implemented our algorithm in the R package dupiR and compared it with a previously proposed Bayesian method based on a Gamma prior. As a showcase, we demonstrate that our inference framework can be used to estimate bacterial survival curves from measurements characterized by extremely low or zero counts and rather high sampling fractions. All in all, we provide a versatile, general purpose algorithm to infer population sizes from count data, which can find application in a broad spectrum of biological and physical problems.     

Bayesian Inference of Initial Models in Cryo-Electron Microscopy Using Pseudo-atoms

Single-particle cryo-electron microscopy is widely used to study the structure of macromolecular assemblies. Tens of thousands of noisy two-dimensional images of the macromolecular assembly viewed from different directions are used to infer its three-dimensional structure. The first step is to estimate a low-resolution initial model and initial image orientations. This is a challenging global optimization problem with many unknowns, including an unknown orientation for each two-dimensional image. Obtaining a good initial model is crucial for the success of the subsequent refinement step. We introduce a probabilistic algorithm for estimating an initial model. The algorithm is fast, has very few algorithmic parameters, and yields information about the precision of estimated model parameters in addition to the parameters themselves. Our algorithm uses a pseudo-atomic model to represent the low-resolution three-dimensional structure, with isotropic Gaussian components as moveable pseudo-atoms. This leads to a significant reduction in the number of parameters needed to represent the three-dimensional structure, and a simplified way of computing two-dimensional projections. It also contributes to the speed of the algorithm. We combine the estimation of the unknown three-dimensional structure and image orientations in a Bayesian framework. This ensures that there are very few parameters to set, and specifies how to combine different types of prior information about the structure with the given data in a systematic way. To estimate the model parameters we use Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The advantage is that instead of just obtaining point estimates of model parameters, we obtain an ensemble of models revealing the precision of the estimated parameters. We demonstrate the algorithm on both simulated and real data.     

Back to BaySICS: A User-Friendly Program for Bayesian Statistical Inference from Coalescent Simulations

Inference of population demographic history has vastly improved in recent years due to a number of technological and theoretical advances including the use of ancient DNA. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) stands among the most promising methods due to its simple theoretical fundament and exceptional flexibility. However, limited availability of user-friendly programs that perform ABC analysis renders it difficult to implement, and hence programming skills are frequently required. In addition, there is limited availability of programs able to deal with heterochronous data. Here we present the software BaySICS: Bayesian Statistical Inference of Coalescent Simulations. BaySICS provides an integrated and user-friendly platform that performs ABC analyses by means of coalescent simulations from DNA sequence data. It estimates historical demographic population parameters and performs hypothesis testing by means of Bayes factors obtained from model comparisons. Although providing specific features that improve inference from datasets with heterochronous data, BaySICS also has several capabilities making it a suitable tool for analysing contemporary genetic datasets. Those capabilities include joint analysis of independent tables, a graphical interface and the implementation of Markov-chain Monte Carlo without likelihoods.     

Multi-scale Inference of Interaction Rules in Animal Groups Using Bayesian Model Selection

Inference of interaction rules of animals moving in groups usually relies on an analysis of large scale system behaviour. Models are tuned through repeated simulation until they match the observed behaviour. More recent work has used the fine scale motions of animals to validate and fit the rules of interaction of animals in groups. Here, we use a Bayesian methodology to compare a variety of models to the collective motion of glass prawns (Paratya australiensis). We show that these exhibit a stereotypical ‘phase transition’, whereby an increase in density leads to the onset of collective motion in one direction. We fit models to this data, which range from: a mean-field model where all prawns interact globally; to a spatial Markovian model where prawns are self-propelled particles influenced only by the current positions and directions of their neighbours; up to non-Markovian models where prawns have ‘memory’ of previous interactions, integrating their experiences over time when deciding to change behaviour. We show that the mean-field model fits the large scale behaviour of the system, but does not capture the observed locality of interactions. Traditional self-propelled particle models fail to capture the fine scale dynamics of the system. The most sophisticated model, the non-Markovian model, provides a good match to the data at both the fine scale and in terms of reproducing global dynamics, while maintaining a biologically plausible perceptual range. We conclude that prawns’ movements are influenced by not just the current direction of nearby conspecifics, but also those encountered in the recent past. Given the simplicity of prawns as a study system our research suggests that self-propelled particle models of collective motion should, if they are to be realistic at multiple biological scales, include memory of previous interactions and other non-Markovian effects.     

Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections

Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.     

Network Plasticity as Bayesian Inference

General results from statistical learning theory suggest to understand not only brain computations, but also brain plasticity as probabilistic inference. But a model for that has been missing. We propose that inherently stochastic features of synaptic plasticity and spine motility enable cortical networks of neurons to carry out probabilistic inference by sampling from a posterior distribution of network configurations. This model provides a viable alternative to existing models that propose convergence of parameters to maximum likelihood values. It explains how priors on weight distributions and connection probabilities can be merged optimally with learned experience, how cortical networks can generalize learned information so well to novel experiences, and how they can compensate continuously for unforeseen disturbances of the network. The resulting new theory of network plasticity explains from a functional perspective a number of experimental data on stochastic aspects of synaptic plasticity that previously appeared to be quite puzzling.     

Analysis of EEG Structural Synchrony in Adolescents with Schizophrenic Disorders

A total of 39 healthy adolescents and 45 adolescents with schizophrenic disorders (mean age 12.3 years) were examined to study the EEG structural synchrony as reflecting temporal synchronization of the operational activity of neuronal networks. A significant decrease in the EEG structural synchrony was observed in the adolescents with schizophrenic disorders as compared to the healthy adolescents. The decrease was detected predominantly in the interhemispheric pairs of EEG derivations, as well as in the pairs related to the frontal, temporal (predominantly on the left), and right parietocentral regions. The findings provide evidence in favor of Friston’s hypothesis of disintegration of cortical electrical activity in schizophrenia and extend the hypothesis in that it is the operational synchrony of cortical activity that might suffer first in schizophrenia.__________Translated from Fiziologiya Cheloveka, Vol. 31, No. 3, 2005, pp. 16–23.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Borisov, Kaplan, Gorbachevskaya, Kozlova.     

A Bayesian Inference Framework to Reconstruct Transmission Trees Using Epidemiological and Genetic Data

The accurate identification of the route of transmission taken by an infectious agent through a host population is critical to understanding its epidemiology and informing measures for its control. However, reconstruction of transmission routes during an epidemic is often an underdetermined problem: data about the location and timings of infections can be incomplete, inaccurate, and compatible with a large number of different transmission scenarios. For fast-evolving pathogens like RNA viruses, inference can be strengthened by using genetic data, nowadays easily and affordably generated. However, significant statistical challenges remain to be overcome in the full integration of these different data types if transmission trees are to be reliably estimated. We present here a framework leading to a bayesian inference scheme that combines genetic and epidemiological data, able to reconstruct most likely transmission patterns and infection dates. After testing our approach with simulated data, we apply the method to two UK epidemics of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus (FMDV): the 2007 outbreak, and a subset of the large 2001 epidemic. In the first case, we are able to confirm the role of a specific premise as the link between the two phases of the epidemics, while transmissions more densely clustered in space and time remain harder to resolve. When we consider data collected from the 2001 epidemic during a time of national emergency, our inference scheme robustly infers transmission chains, and uncovers the presence of undetected premises, thus providing a useful tool for epidemiological studies in real time. The generation of genetic data is becoming routine in epidemiological investigations, but the development of analytical tools maximizing the value of these data remains a priority. Our method, while applied here in the context of FMDV, is general and with slight modification can be used in any situation where both spatiotemporal and genetic data are available.     

Inferring Neuronal Dynamics from Calcium Imaging Data Using Biophysical Models and Bayesian Inference

Calcium imaging has been used as a promising technique to monitor the dynamic activity of neuronal populations. However, the calcium trace is temporally smeared which restricts the extraction of quantities of interest such as spike trains of individual neurons. To address this issue, spike reconstruction algorithms have been introduced. One limitation of such reconstructions is that the underlying models are not informed about the biophysics of spike and burst generations. Such existing prior knowledge might be useful for constraining the possible solutions of spikes. Here we describe, in a novel Bayesian approach, how principled knowledge about neuronal dynamics can be employed to infer biophysical variables and parameters from fluorescence traces. By using both synthetic and in vitro recorded fluorescence traces, we demonstrate that the new approach is able to reconstruct different repetitive spiking and/or bursting patterns with accurate single spike resolution. Furthermore, we show that the high inference precision of the new approach is preserved even if the fluorescence trace is rather noisy or if the fluorescence transients show slow rise kinetics lasting several hundred milliseconds, and inhomogeneous rise and decay times. In addition, we discuss the use of the new approach for inferring parameter changes, e.g. due to a pharmacological intervention, as well as for inferring complex characteristics of immature neuronal circuits.     

Fully Bayesian Inference for Structural MRI: Application to Segmentation and Statistical Analysis of T2-Hypointensities

Aiming at iron-related T2-hypointensity, which is related to normal aging and neurodegenerative processes, we here present two practicable approaches, based on Bayesian inference, for preprocessing and statistical analysis of a complex set of structural MRI data. In particular, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods were used to simulate posterior distributions. First, we rendered a segmentation algorithm that uses outlier detection based on model checking techniques within a Bayesian mixture model. Second, we rendered an analytical tool comprising a Bayesian regression model with smoothness priors (in the form of Gaussian Markov random fields) mitigating the necessity to smooth data prior to statistical analysis. For validation, we used simulated data and MRI data of 27 healthy controls (age: ; range, ). We first observed robust segmentation of both simulated T2-hypointensities and gray-matter regions known to be T2-hypointense. Second, simulated data and images of segmented T2-hypointensity were analyzed. We found not only robust identification of simulated effects but also a biologically plausible age-related increase of T2-hypointensity primarily within the dentate nucleus but also within the globus pallidus, substantia nigra, and red nucleus. Our results indicate that fully Bayesian inference can successfully be applied for preprocessing and statistical analysis of structural MRI data.     

Noisy Galvanic Vestibular Stimulation Modulates the Amplitude of EEG Synchrony Patterns

Noisy galvanic vestibular stimulation has been associated with numerous cognitive and behavioural effects, such as enhancement of visual memory in healthy individuals, improvement of visual deficits in stroke patients, as well as possibly improvement of motor function in Parkinson’s disease; yet, the mechanism of action is unclear. Since Parkinson’s and other neuropsychiatric diseases are characterized by maladaptive dynamics of brain rhythms, we investigated whether noisy galvanic vestibular stimulation was associated with measurable changes in EEG oscillatory rhythms within theta (4–7.5 Hz), low alpha (8–10 Hz), high alpha (10.5–12 Hz), beta (13–30 Hz) and gamma (31–50 Hz) bands. We recorded the EEG while simultaneously delivering noisy bilateral, bipolar stimulation at varying intensities of imperceptible currents – at 10, 26, 42, 58, 74 and 90% of sensory threshold – to ten neurologically healthy subjects. Using standard spectral analysis, we investigated the transient aftereffects of noisy stimulation on rhythms. Subsequently, using robust artifact rejection techniques and the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator regression and cross-validation, we assessed the combinations of channels and power spectral features within each EEG frequency band that were linearly related with stimulus intensity. We show that noisy galvanic vestibular stimulation predominantly leads to a mild suppression of gamma power in lateral regions immediately after stimulation, followed by delayed increase in beta and gamma power in frontal regions approximately 20–25 s after stimulation ceased. Ongoing changes in the power of each oscillatory band throughout frontal, central/parietal, occipital and bilateral electrodes predicted the intensity of galvanic vestibular stimulation in a stimulus-dependent manner, demonstrating linear effects of stimulation on brain rhythms. We propose that modulation of neural oscillations is a potential mechanism for the previously-described cognitive and motor effects of vestibular stimulation, and noisy galvanic vestibular stimulation may provide an additional non-invasive means for neuromodulation of functional brain networks.     

Establishing a Statistical Link between Network Oscillations and Neural Synchrony

Pairs of active neurons frequently fire action potentials or “spikes” nearly synchronously (i.e., within 5 ms of each other). This spike synchrony may occur by chance, based solely on the neurons’ fluctuating firing patterns, or it may occur too frequently to be explicable by chance alone. When spike synchrony above chances levels is present, it may subserve computation for a specific cognitive process, or it could be an irrelevant byproduct of such computation. Either way, spike synchrony is a feature of neural data that should be explained. A point process regression framework has been developed previously for this purpose, using generalized linear models (GLMs). In this framework, the observed number of synchronous spikes is compared to the number predicted by chance under varying assumptions about the factors that affect each of the individual neuron’s firing-rate functions. An important possible source of spike synchrony is network-wide oscillations, which may provide an essential mechanism of network information flow. To establish the statistical link between spike synchrony and network-wide oscillations, we have integrated oscillatory field potentials into our point process regression framework. We first extended a previously-published model of spike-field association and showed that we could recover phase relationships between oscillatory field potentials and firing rates. We then used this new framework to demonstrate the statistical relationship between oscillatory field potentials and spike synchrony in: 1) simulated neurons, 2) in vitro recordings of hippocampal CA1 pyramidal cells, and 3) in vivo recordings of neocortical V4 neurons. Our results provide a rigorous method for establishing a statistical link between network oscillations and neural synchrony.     

Simultaneous Statistical Inference for Epigenetic Data

Epigenetic research leads to complex data structures. Since parametric model assumptions for the distribution of epigenetic data are hard to verify we introduce in the present work a nonparametric statistical framework for two-group comparisons. Furthermore, epigenetic analyses are often performed at various genetic loci simultaneously. Hence, in order to be able to draw valid conclusions for specific loci, an appropriate multiple testing correction is necessary. Finally, with technologies available for the simultaneous assessment of many interrelated biological parameters (such as gene arrays), statistical approaches also need to deal with a possibly unknown dependency structure in the data. Our statistical approach to the nonparametric comparison of two samples with independent multivariate observables is based on recently developed multivariate multiple permutation tests. We adapt their theory in order to cope with families of hypotheses regarding relative effects. Our results indicate that the multivariate multiple permutation test keeps the pre-assigned type I error level for the global null hypothesis. In combination with the closure principle, the family-wise error rate for the simultaneous test of the corresponding locus/parameter-specific null hypotheses can be controlled. In applications we demonstrate that group differences in epigenetic data can be detected reliably with our methodology.     

Bayesian Inference for a Random Tessellation Process

This article describes an inhomogeneous Poisson point process in the plane with an intensity function based on a Dirichlet tessellation process and a method for using observations on the point process to make fully Bayesian inferences about the underlying tessellation. The method is implemented using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. An application to modeling the territories of clans of badgers, Meles meles, is described.     

Inference of gene pathways using mixture Bayesian networks

Background  

Inference of gene networks typically relies on measurements across a wide range of conditions or treatments. Although one network structure is predicted, the relationship between genes could vary across conditions. A comprehensive approach to infer general and condition-dependent gene networks was evaluated. This approach integrated Bayesian network and Gaussian mixture models to describe continuous microarray gene expression measurements, and three gene networks were predicted.     

Bayesian Inference for the Causal Effect of Mediation

Summary We propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the natural direct and indirect effects through a mediator in the setting of a continuous mediator and a binary response. Several conditional independence assumptions are introduced (with corresponding sensitivity parameters) to make these effects identifiable from the observed data. We suggest strategies for eliciting sensitivity parameters and conduct simulations to assess violations to the assumptions. This approach is used to assess mediation in a recent weight management clinical trial.     

Noise Suppression and Surplus Synchrony by Coincidence Detection

The functional significance of correlations between action potentials of neurons is still a matter of vivid debate. In particular, it is presently unclear how much synchrony is caused by afferent synchronized events and how much is intrinsic due to the connectivity structure of cortex. The available analytical approaches based on the diffusion approximation do not allow to model spike synchrony, preventing a thorough analysis. Here we theoretically investigate to what extent common synaptic afferents and synchronized inputs each contribute to correlated spiking on a fine temporal scale between pairs of neurons. We employ direct simulation and extend earlier analytical methods based on the diffusion approximation to pulse-coupling, allowing us to introduce precisely timed correlations in the spiking activity of the synaptic afferents. We investigate the transmission of correlated synaptic input currents by pairs of integrate-and-fire model neurons, so that the same input covariance can be realized by common inputs or by spiking synchrony. We identify two distinct regimes: In the limit of low correlation linear perturbation theory accurately determines the correlation transmission coefficient, which is typically smaller than unity, but increases sensitively even for weakly synchronous inputs. In the limit of high input correlation, in the presence of synchrony, a qualitatively new picture arises. As the non-linear neuronal response becomes dominant, the output correlation becomes higher than the total correlation in the input. This transmission coefficient larger unity is a direct consequence of non-linear neural processing in the presence of noise, elucidating how synchrony-coded signals benefit from these generic properties present in cortical networks.