中高纬度地区TRMM卫星降雨数据的精度评价

卫星降雨产品在降雨空间格局分析中扮演着重要角色,其中TRMM 3B42（3B42）是重要的产品之一,具有适宜的空间和时间尺度,已成为生态、气候、水文模型的重要驱动因子.当前对3B42 V7新版本数据的精度和误差认识仍然有限,尤其缺少中高纬度地区的数据精度评价研究,制约其在生态、气候和水文等领域的应用.本文基于内蒙古自治区1998—2012年3B42 V7产品和53个气象站点数据,评估其在中高纬度地区的精度,揭示了各精度评价指标的空间分布特征及其影响因子.总体精度评价结果表明： 3B42在年、月、日尺度上均高估降雨量,且误差随时间尺度增大而增加,日降雨量的平均误差和平均绝对误差分别为-0.06和0.88 mm;降雨事件侦测能力表现良好,公正预兆评分达到0.23,但对降雨事件总频率存在微弱高估.数据精度受海拔和多年平均降雨量影响,随海拔升高,降雨绝对误差减小,降雨事件探测能力减弱,多年平均降雨量对数据精度的影响则相反.     

中国北方气候干湿变化及干旱演变特征

利用中国北方15个省(区、市)320个气象站1960—2014年逐月降水量资料,运用标准化降水指数(SPI)、标准差和相关分析等方法,基于不同时间尺度,对近55年来中国北方及不同干湿区气候干湿时空变化特征进行分析,并从干旱站次比、干旱强度等方面分析了年际干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)1960—2014年中国北方地区整体呈变干趋势,年际干旱站次比和干旱强度在同步波动中均呈下降趋势。(2)1960—2014年北方地区春季和冬季呈湿润化趋势,冬季湿润化趋势最明显,夏季和秋季呈干旱化趋势,夏季干旱化趋势最显著,夏季降水对年干湿状况的变化起决定性作用。(3)湿润区和半湿润区有干旱化趋势,而干旱区和半干旱区均呈湿润化趋势发展;湿润区和半湿润区年际干旱站次比、干旱强度呈上升趋势,而干旱区和半干旱区则相反。(4)中国北方东部季风区的湿润区和半湿润区以及处于季风区和非季风区分界线两侧的半湿润区和半干旱区气候干湿变化均呈显著同步波动变化趋势,而中国北方东部季风区的湿润区和半湿润区与中国北方西部非季风区的干旱区气候干湿变化呈显著反向波动变化趋势,夏季具有同样的规律,而冬季和春季四大干湿区干湿变化具有较好的同步一致性。     

Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics during 1957-2012 in the Semi-Arid Loess Plateau,China

Precipitation is the only water supply and most important factor affecting vegetation growth on the slopes of semi-arid Loess Plateau of China. Based on precipitation data from 7 synoptic stations in the study area over the period 1957–2012, the trends of precipitation and standardized precipitation index (SPI) were analyzed by using linear regression, Mann−Kendall, and Spearman’s Rho tests at the 5% significance level. The results show that (1) the precipitation fluctuation of monthly precipitation was intense (coefficients of variation> 100%), and the drier years were recorded as 1965 and 1995 at all stations. (2) The significant change trend of different stations varied on different time scales: the Changwu station had a significant decreasing trend in April (−0.488 mm/year) and November (−0.249 mm/year), while Luochuan station was in April (−0.457 mm/year); Changwu station displayed a significant increasing trends in winter (0.220 mm/year) and a significant decreasing trends in spring (−0.770 mm/year). The significant decreasing trends in annual precipitation were detected at the Suide (−2.034 mm/year) and Yan’an (–2.129 mm/year) stations. (3) The SPI−12 series analysis suggests that the drought degree of Yulin and Changwu was the lowest and that of Hengshan was the highest among the 7 synoptic stations.     

多卫星降水产品在环渤海地区的精度评价

降水是全球能量和水循环中的重要变量之一,降水资料的精度对洪旱灾害的监测与预报、水资源管理等至关重要.本文利用环渤海地区1998—2014年55个气象站点的逐日降水数据,分别从日、月尺度对TRMM 3B42、CMORPH、PERSIANN 3种卫星降水产品进行精度评价,并对其季节差异进行分析.结果表明: 总体上,TRMM 3B42 V7的精度最高,PERSIANN精度最低,但CMORPH对日降水事件的探测成功率(0.69)最高;3B42略高估算了日降水量,其他两者则对日降水量存在低估.春、夏、秋季各卫星降水产品对降水的成功探测率高于冬季,且相关系数、均方根误差等指标随季节变化明显.3种卫星降水产品的月尺度估算精度优于日尺度,其中对日降水量的估算精度较低,特别是明显低估了暴雨事件的实际降水量.本研究为卫星降水产品在环渤海地区降水估算及其在气候与水文模拟和预测中的应用提供了依据和支持.     

Modelling Hydrologic Processes in the Mekong River Basin Using a Distributed Model Driven by Satellite Precipitation and Rain Gauge Observations

The Mekong River is the most important river in Southeast Asia. It has increasingly suffered from water-related problems due to economic development, population growth and climate change in the surrounding areas. In this study, we built a distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model (GBHM) of the Mekong River using remote sensing data and other publicly available data. Two numerical experiments were conducted using different rainfall data sets as model inputs. The data sets included rain gauge data from the Mekong River Commission (MRC) and remote sensing rainfall data from the Tropic Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42V7). Model calibration and validation were conducted for the two rainfall data sets. Compared to the observed discharge, both the gauge simulation and TRMM simulation performed well during the calibration period (1998–2001). However, the performance of the gauge simulation was worse than that of the TRMM simulation during the validation period (2002–2012). The TRMM simulation is more stable and reliable at different scales. Moreover, the calibration period was changed to 2, 4, and 8 years to test the impact of the calibration period length on the two simulations. The results suggest that longer calibration periods improved the GBHM performance during validation periods. In addition, the TRMM simulation is more stable and less sensitive to the calibration period length than is the gauge simulation. Further analysis reveals that the uneven distribution of rain gauges makes the input rainfall data less representative and more heterogeneous, worsening the simulation performance. Our results indicate that remotely sensed rainfall data may be more suitable for driving distributed hydrologic models, especially in basins with poor data quality or limited gauge availability.     

Microbial Nonlinear Response to a Precipitation Gradient in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

The response of soil microbes to global warming, especially their response to precipitation, remains poorly known. The Tibetan Plateau is very sensitive to climate change. In particular, the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is an interesting area to test the response of soil microbial communities to precipitation, as there is a distinct gradient in annual precipitation from east to west. We collected soil samples along a precipitation gradient in arid and semi-arid areas of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) technology was used to analyze the microbial community structure and total microbial biomass. With declining precipitation, bacterial biomass decreased significantly, whereas fungal biomass did not show an obvious trend; this result indicates that bacteria are more sensitive to mean annual precipitation (MAP). Overall, the biomass of Gram-negative (G^?) bacteria represented up to 82% of the total bacterial biomass. In the high (260–394 mm yr^?1) MAP areas, bacterial biomass was mainly concentrated at the surface and decreased with increasing soil depth (0–40 cm). In contrast, in the low (36–260 mm yr^?1) MAP areas, bacterial biomass was mainly concentrated in the deep soils. The mean annual precipitation was strongly correlated with soil microbial community in space, with microbial communities in the 0–10-cm soil depth most affected by precipitation. Groundwater may impact microbial communities in the 20–40-cm soil depth of this arid and semiarid region. The clustering of the microbial communities was significantly grouped according to the MAP gradient, revealing that MAP is a major driving force of microbial communities in this arid and semi-arid area. The decline in MAP led to a shift in the structure of the microbial community and an overall reduction in microbial biomass.     

Precipitation impacts on vegetation spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau

The ongoing changes in vegetation spring phenology in temperate/cold regions are widely attributed to temperature. However, in arid/semiarid ecosystems, the correlation between spring temperature and phenology is much less clear. We test the hypothesis that precipitation plays an important role in the temperature dependency of phenology in arid/semiarid regions. We therefore investigated the influence of preseason precipitation on satellite‐derived estimates of starting date of vegetation growing season (SOS) across the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We observed two clear patterns linking precipitation to SOS. First, SOS is more sensitive to interannual variations in preseason precipitation in more arid than in wetter areas. Spatially, an increase in long‐term averaged preseason precipitation of 10 mm corresponds to a decrease in the precipitation sensitivity of SOS by about 0.01 day mm^?1. Second, SOS is more sensitive to variations in preseason temperature in wetter than in dryer areas of the plateau. A spatial increase in precipitation of 10 mm corresponds to an increase in temperature sensitivity of SOS of 0.25 day °C^?1 (0.25 day SOS advance per 1 °C temperature increase). Those two patterns indicate both direct and indirect impacts of precipitation on SOS on TP. This study suggests a balance between maximizing benefit from the limiting climatic resource and minimizing the risk imposed by other factors. In wetter areas, the lower risk of drought allows greater temperature sensitivity of SOS to maximize the thermal benefit, which is further supported by the weaker interannual partial correlation between growing degree days and preseason precipitation. In more arid areas, maximizing the benefit of water requires greater sensitivity of SOS to precipitation, with reduced sensitivity to temperature. This study highlights the impacts of precipitation on SOS in a large cold and arid/semiarid region and suggests that influences of water should be included in SOS module of terrestrial ecosystem models for drylands.     

高寒内陆河流域植被覆盖增加对地下水补给的影响

地下水是干旱区内陆河流域的主要基础性资源,对流域生态安全、可持续发展等具有重要意义。干旱/半干旱区的地下水补给比湿润地区更易受到地表覆盖条件的影响。为揭示干旱区内陆河流域植被覆盖增加对地下水补给的影响,以巴音河中下游为例,针对土壤和水评价工具(SWAT)模型未有效考虑降水、地形等因素对植被覆盖影响的缺陷,改进SWAT模型,采用全球地表卫星叶面积指数(GLASS LAI)数据代替其LAI计算模块,再结合SWAT土地利用更新模块,准确刻画区域植被覆盖变化。将改进后的SWAT模型与模块化有限拆分地下水流耦合(MODFLOW)模型耦合,准确模拟并分析植被覆盖增加对流域地下水补给的影响。结果表明：基于植被动态变化的土壤和水评价工具与模块化有限拆分地下水流耦合模型(DVSWAT-MODFLOW)模型的月蒸散发及月地下水位模拟效果较好;巴音河中下游2019年林地及草地面积以及LAI较2001年明显增加;2019年植被覆盖情况对应的年际及月际尺度地下水补给量较2001年分别减少了6.1—26.52 mm以及0—15.03 mm;植被覆盖增加对年际尺度地下水补给量的影响强弱在一定程度上取决于年降水量,对...     

石羊河流域气候干湿状况分析及评价

分析了河西走廊石羊河流域用水区降水的年际时空分布和演化规律,用潜在蒸散、气候干旱指数、蒸降差计算了不同流域段的水分平衡收支情况。结果表明,20世纪80~90年代降水呈增加趋势,但量较小;春、夏季降水增加,秋、冬季降水减少;潜在蒸散多年平均值为1 026.1 mm,并由上游向下游逐渐增大。20世纪70~90年代潜在蒸散呈增加趋势,平均增加4.1~43.6 mm;季节潜在蒸散大小顺序为夏>春>秋>冬,平均为403.5~521.6 mm;历年气候干旱指数平均为0.002,极值出现在下游的民勤地区,达0.581。20世纪70~90年代,气候干旱指数呈增大趋势,气候变得越来越干燥;年水分亏缺量平均为810.7 mm,表现为水分严重不足。最后,提出了合理利用水资源的建议,以科学应对气候变化,促进流域经济持续发展。     

Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007–2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models.     

Characterization of droughts during 2001–2014 based on remote sensing: A case study of Northeast China

Northeast China, the most important region for commercial grain farming in China, is vulnerable to drought due to high fluctuation in monthly rainfall. Timely, accurate and effective drought monitoring is very essential for securing the output of grain farming. In this study, three widely used drought indices were compared using satellite soil moisture data and their capability for drought monitoring was evaluated in Northeast China. Three indices are Normalized Monthly Precipitation Anomaly Percentage (NPA), Vegetation Health Index (VHI) and Normalized Vegetation Supply Water Index (NVSWI). In order to know the relationship between rainfall and drought especially over different local climate zones and give a more detail strategy for crop irrigation, a time-lag relationship is investigated based on the TRMM 3B43 monthly precipitation and NVSWI. Tendency rate (slope) was used to characterize the change of drought events in the region for the period 2001–2014. Results showed that: (1) the three selected indices were suitable for drought monitoring, with NVSWI performing the best in terms of the highest correlation with soil moisture, (2) an obvious time-lag was observed between rainfall and drought with the time lag being one month for all three climate zones, (3) drought occurred more frequently in spring and winter, while in summer drought occurred more easily in the west than in the east in Northeast China, (4) overall the frequency of drought was decreasing from 2001 to 2014 in Northeast China.     

基于SPI的石羊河流域气候干湿变化及干旱事件的时空格局特征研究

利用石羊河流域4个气象站1960—2013年逐月降水量资料,应用标准化降水指数(SPI)、游程理论等方法,分析石羊河流域近54年的气候干湿变化及不同时间尺度干旱事件时空演变特征。结果表明:1不同时间尺度SPI对降水量变化的敏感程度存在较大差异,时间尺度越小,SPI对一次降水的反应越明显。2石羊河流域年代际、年际和季的SPI在波动中均呈增加趋势,其中,冬季湿润化速度最快,对年湿润化过程的贡献最显著。31960—2013年,石羊河流域不同时间尺度干旱事件持续时间、干旱程度和干旱强度均呈减少趋势,且波动渐趋平缓;石羊河流域农业干旱和水文干旱最严重的时期分别为1964—1965年和1962—1964年。4两种时间尺度干旱事件持续时间的减少速度从上游至下游均逐渐变慢,上游乌鞘岭地区是农业干旱持续时间最长区域,永昌和下游民勤地区是水文干旱持续时间较长区域;两种时间尺度干旱事件干旱程度减少速度最快区域均在上游乌鞘岭地区;武威和民勤地区3月尺度干旱强度稍有上升,其它地区不同时间尺度干旱事件干旱强度均呈下降趋势,永昌地区是多尺度干旱事件干旱强度较大区域。     

降水强度变化对天山云杉地表凋落物和细根分解的影响

为了探明不同降水条件下干旱区山地森林主要优势树种凋落物分解特征,采用野外模拟试验,通过设计3种降水强度处理[ZP（去除降水）、CK（自然降水,对照）、DP（双倍降水）],研究了降水强度变化对天山云杉地表凋落物（叶和枝）和细根分解的影响。研究结果表明：分解24个月后对照凋落叶、凋落枝和细根干重损失率比去除降水损失率分别高24.79%、2.54%和23.09%,比双倍降水损失率低7.04%、0.68%和10.70%,去除降水对凋落叶和细根分解的抑制作用显著,对凋落枝抑制作用较微弱,双倍降水对分解具有促进作用,但仅对细根分解的促进作用显著。对照和双倍降水处理下凋落叶和细根月平均分解率均表现为双峰型曲线,凋落枝为单峰曲线,去除降水处理下地表凋落物和细根月平均分解率相对平缓。木质素和纤维素残留率也表现为去除降水 > 对照 > 双倍降水。不同降水处理下分解过程中N元素释放模式不同,但C释放模式基本一致。相关分析表明,凋落物月分解率与0~10 cm土层温度的相关性不显著（P>0.05）,但与土壤含水量间为线性极显著正相关（P<0.05）。我们研究结果发现云杉凋落物与根系分解对降水强度变化存在明显差异,未来气候变化对土壤碳周转影响应该充分考虑这种器官间差异。     

3800 Years of Quantitative Precipitation Reconstruction from the Northwest Yucatan Peninsula

Precipitation over the last 3800 years has been reconstructed using modern pollen calibration and precipitation data. A transfer function was then performed via the linear method of partial least squares. By calculating precipitation anomalies, it is estimated that precipitation deficits were greater than surpluses, reaching 21% and <9%, respectively. The period from 50 BC to 800 AD was the driest of the record. The drought related to the abandonment of the Maya Preclassic period featured a 21% reduction in precipitation, while the drought of the Maya collapse (800 to 860 AD) featured a reduction of 18%. The Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a period of positive phases (3.8–7.6%). The Little Ice Age was a period of climatic variability, with reductions in precipitation but without deficits.     

内蒙古不同类型草原光合植被覆盖度对降水变化的响应

植被是影响土壤侵蚀过程的重要因素。论文基于MODIS遥感数据和同期降水数据,用相关和回归分析方法从不同时间尺度揭示了内蒙古草甸草原、典型草原和荒漠草原2002—2016年光合植被覆盖度(Fractional Photosynthetic Vegetation,f_(PV))的变化规律及其对降水变化的响应。结果表明:(1)2002—2016年间多年平均f_(PV)草甸草原为46.5%,典型草原和荒漠草原分别为36.3%和22.4%;草甸草原f_(PV)随时间变化呈不显著增长趋势(线性变化斜率为0.29%/a),典型草原和荒漠草原f_(PV)呈不显著下降趋势(线性变化斜率分别为-0.04%/a和-0.21%/a);相应时期年降水量随时间变化都呈现不显著波动上升趋势。(2)内蒙古草原的月植被覆盖度对月降水量存在明显的1—2个月滞后效应和显著的累积效应,且表现出草原类型越干旱,滞后效应越明显的特征;相比草甸草原和典型草原,荒漠草原植被对降水量变化更加敏感。(3)内蒙古3类草原年平均植被覆盖度对降水量的响应,均表现出年、季、月尺度上分别受当年降水量、生长季降水量以及6、7、8月份降水量的显著影响的特征;3类草原年植被覆盖度与生长季降水线性拟合结果都较好,内蒙古3种草原类型的年植被覆盖度与降水量具有的强相关性,可为区域土壤侵蚀动态评价提供科学依据。     

Satellite-Based Analysis of Evapotranspiration and Water Balance in the Grassland Ecosystems of Dryland East Asia

The regression tree method is used to upscale evapotranspiration (ET) measurements at eddy-covariance (EC) towers to the grassland ecosystems over the Dryland East Asia (DEA). The regression tree model was driven by satellite and meteorology datasets, and explained 82% and 76% of the variations of ET observations in the calibration and validation datasets, respectively. The annual ET estimates ranged from 222.6 to 269.1 mm yr⁻¹ over the DEA region with an average of 245.8 mm yr⁻¹ from 1982 through 2009. Ecosystem ET showed decreased trends over 61% of the DEA region during this period, especially in most regions of Mongolia and eastern Inner Mongolia due to decreased precipitation. The increased ET occurred primarily in the western and southern DEA region. Over the entire study area, water balance (the difference between precipitation and ecosystem ET) decreased substantially during the summer and growing season. Precipitation reduction was an important cause for the severe water deficits. The drying trend occurring in the grassland ecosystems of the DEA region can exert profound impacts on a variety of terrestrial ecosystem processes and functions.     

2001-2020年新疆阿勒泰地区归一化植被指数时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

气候变化是干旱区植被变化的重要驱动因素,探究干旱区气候与植被关系的时空变化,有助于理解生态系统演化特征。基于MODIS-NDVI与CRU数据集中气候数据（降水、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、水汽压及潜在蒸散）,采用Sen+Mann-kendall、Hurst指数及相关分析法,在不同时间尺度评价了阿勒泰地区NDVI的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：（1）在年尺度上,植被NDVI整体呈上升趋势,但存在弱反持续特征。区域内植被退化现象严重（12.11%）,植被改善区域与退化区域呈破碎化分布。（2）月尺度与季尺度上,NDVI与降水、气温、极端气温、水汽压和潜在蒸散呈正相关,其中降水因素在季尺度上的相关性高于月尺度。（3）不同土地利用方式下NDVI与气候因子的滞后效应表现为短期正效应与长期负效应。     

Environmental controls of NDVI and sheep production in the Tierra del Fuego steppe of Argentina

Abstract. We analysed vegetation dynamics in Tierra del Fuego steppes using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data provided by advanced very high‐resolution radiometer (AVHRR) on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar satellite. Our objective, at a regional scale, was to analyse the spatial variability of NDVI dynamics in relation to parent material and geographic location, representing the fertility and climate gradients respectively; at a local scale, it was to analyse the inter‐annual variability associated with climate and its relation with sheep production indices. The general pattern of NDVI dynamics was analysed with Principal Component Analysis. We found that the geographic location was more important than landscape type in explaining NDVI dynamics despite the fact that the variation in landscape type reflects a fertility gradient strongly associated with floristic composition and secondary productivity. Discriminant Analysis was performed to identify the variables that better distinguish geographic units. The Northern region (with the lowest precipitation and the highest temperatures) had lower NDVI values over the year. In the Central region, NDVI reached the highest value of the season, surpassing both other regions. The Southern region (the coldest and moistest) had its growth pattern displaced towards the summer. For the Central region we analysed 10 years of monthly NDVI data with PCA. We found that precipitation from August to December and winter temperature are the most important determinants of overall NDVI values. Lamb production was correlated with spring and early summer NDVI values. Sheep mortality is affected by low NDVI values in late summer and high annual amplitude. Satellite information allowed us to characterize the vegetation dynamics of three ecological areas across the Fuegian steppe.     

East Asian Monsoon Signals Reflected in Temperature and Precipitation Changes over the Past 300 Years in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

Based on observational data and Asian monsoon intensity datasets from China, the relationships between the East Asian winter monsoon index and winter temperature, the East Asian summer monsoon index and Meiyu precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, were analyzed. We found that the monsoon signals were reflected in the temperature and Meiyu precipitation variations. Thus, we used the reconstructed Meiyu precipitation and winter temperature series for the past 300 years and detected the summer/winter monsoon intensity signals using multi-taper spectral estimation method and wavelet analysis. The main periodicities of Meiyu precipitation and winter temperature, such as interannual cycle with 2–7-year, interdecadal-centennial cycles with 30–40-year and 50–100-year, were found. The good relationships between the East Asian summer and winter monsoons suggested that they were in phase at 31-year cycle, while out of phase at 100-year cycle, but with 20-year phase difference. In addition, the winter monsoon intensity may be regulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the summer monsoon is closely related to the signal intensities of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.     

Do American Dippers Obtain a Survival Benefit from Altitudinal Migration?

Studies of partial migrants provide an opportunity to assess the cost and benefits of migration. Previous work has demonstrated that sedentary American dippers (residents) have higher annual productivity than altitudinal migrants that move to higher elevations to breed. Here we use a ten-year (30 period) mark-recapture dataset to evaluate whether migrants offset their lower productivity with higher survival during the migration-breeding period when they occupy different habitat, or early and late-winter periods when they coexist with residents. Mark-recapture models provide no evidence that apparent monthly survival of migrants is higher than that of residents at any time of the year. The best-supported model suggests that monthly survival is higher in the migration-breeding period than winter periods. Another well-supported model suggested that residency conferred a survival benefit, and annual apparent survival (calculated from model weighted monthly apparent survival estimates using the Delta method) of residents (0.511 ± 0.038SE) was slightly higher than that of migrants (0.487 ± 0.032). Winter survival of American dippers was influenced by environmental conditions; monthly apparent survival increased as maximum daily flow rates increased and declined as winter temperatures became colder. However, we found no evidence that environmental conditions altered differences in winter survival of residents and migrants. Since migratory American dippers have lower productivity and slightly lower survival than residents our data suggests that partial migration is likely an outcome of competition for limited nest sites at low elevations, with less competitive individuals being forced to migrate to higher elevations in order to breed.