Correlation between National Influenza Surveillance Data and Google Trends in South Korea

Background

In South Korea, there is currently no syndromic surveillance system using internet search data, including Google Flu Trends. The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between national influenza surveillance data and Google Trends in South Korea.

Methods

Our study was based on a publicly available search engine database, Google Trends, using 12 influenza-related queries, from September 9, 2007 to September 8, 2012. National surveillance data were obtained from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) influenza-like illness (ILI) and virologic surveillance system. Pearson''s correlation coefficients were calculated to compare the national surveillance and the Google Trends data for the overall period and for 5 influenza seasons.

Results

The correlation coefficient between the KCDC ILI and virologic surveillance data was 0.72 (p<0.05). The highest correlation was between the Google Trends query of H1N1 and the ILI data, with a correlation coefficient of 0.53 (p<0.05), for the overall study period. When compared with the KCDC virologic data, the Google Trends query of bird flu had the highest correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.93 (p<0.05) in the 2010-11 season. The following queries showed a statistically significant correlation coefficient compared with ILI data for three consecutive seasons: Tamiflu (r = 0.59, 0.86, 0.90, p<0.05), new flu (r = 0.64, 0.43, 0.70, p<0.05) and flu (r = 0.68, 0.43, 0.77, p<0.05).

Conclusions

In our study, we found that the Google Trends for certain queries using the survey on influenza correlated with national surveillance data in South Korea. The results of this study showed that Google Trends in the Korean language can be used as complementary data for influenza surveillance but was insufficient for the use of predictive models, such as Google Flu Trends.     

Participation Dynamics in Population-Based Longitudinal HIV Surveillance in Rural South Africa

Population-based HIV surveillance is crucial to inform understanding of the HIV pandemic and evaluate HIV interventions, but little is known about longitudinal participation patterns in such settings. We investigated the dynamics of longitudinal participation patterns in a high HIV prevalence surveillance setting in rural South Africa between 2003 and 2012, taking into account demographic dynamics. At any given survey round, 22,708 to 30,495 persons were eligible. Although the yearly participation rates were relatively modest (26% to 46%), cumulative rates increased substantially with multiple recruitment opportunities: 68% of eligible persons participated at least once, 48% at least twice and 31% at least three times after five survey rounds. We identified two types of study fatigue: at the individual level, contact and consent rates decreased with multiple recruitment opportunities and, at the population level, these rates also decreased over calendar time, independently of multiple recruitment opportunities. Using sequence analysis and hierarchical clustering, we identified three broad individual participation profiles: consenters (20%), switchers (43%) and refusers (37%). Men were over represented among refusers, women among consenters, and temporary non-residents among switchers. The specific subgroup of persons who were systemically not contacted or refusers constitutes a challenge for population-based surveillance and interventions.     

Invasive Group B Streptococcal Disease in South Africa: Importance of Surveillance Methodology

Data on neonatal group B streptococcal (GBS) invasive disease burden are needed to refine prevention policies. Differences in surveillance methods and investigating for cases can lead to varying disease burden estimates. We compared the findings of laboratory-based passive surveillance for GBS disease across South Africa, and for one of the provinces compared this to a real-time, systematic, clinical surveillance in a population-defined region in Johannesburg, Soweto. Passive surveillance identified a total of 799 early-onset disease (EOD, <7 days age) and 818 LOD (late onset disease, 7–89 days age) cases nationwide. The passive surveillance provincial incidence varied for EOD (range 0.00 to 1.23/1000 live births), and was 0.03 to 1.04/1000 live births for LOD. The passive surveillance rates for Soweto, were not significantly different compared to those from the systematic surveillance (EOD 1.23 [95%CI 1.06–1.43] vs. 1.50 [95%CI 1.30–1.71], respectively, rate ratio 0.82 [95%CI 0.67–1.01]; LOD 1.04 [95% CI 0.90–1.23] vs. 1.22 [95%CI 1.05–1.42], rate ratio 0.85 [95% CI 0.68–1.07]). A review of the few cases missed in the passive system in Soweto, suggested that missing key identifiers, such as date of birth, resulted in their omission during the electronic data extraction process. Our analysis suggests that passive surveillance provides a modestly lower estimate of invasive GBS rates compared to real time sentinel-site systematic surveillance, however, this is unlikely to be the reason for the provincial variability in incidence of invasive GBS disease in South Africa. This, possibly reflects that invasive GBS disease goes undiagnosed due to issues related to access to healthcare, poor laboratory capacity and varying diagnostic procedures or empiric antibiotic treatment of neonates with suspected sepsis in the absence of attempting to making a microbiological diagnosis. An efficacious GBS vaccine for pregnant women, when available, could be used as a probe to better quantify the burden of invasive GBS disease in low-middle resourced settings such as ours. From our study passive systems are important to monitor trends over time as long as they are interpreted with caution; active systems give better detailed information and will have greater representivity when expanded to other surveillance sites.     

Rotavirus Surveillance at a WHO-Coordinated Invasive Bacterial Disease Surveillance Site in Bangladesh: A Feasibility Study to Integrate Two Surveillance Systems

The World Health Organization (WHO) currently coordinates rotavirus diarrhea and invasive bacterial disease (IBD) surveillance at 178 sentinel sites in 60 countries. However, only 78 sites participate in both surveillance systems using a common sentinel site. Here, we explored the feasibility of extending a WHO-IBD surveillance platform to generate data on the burden of rotaviral diarrhea and its epidemiological characteristics to prepare the countries to measure the impact of rotaviral vaccine. A six-month (July to December, 2012) surveillance, managed by IBD team, collected stool samples and clinical data from under-five children with acute watery diarrhea at an IBD sentinel site. Samples were tested for rotavirus antigen by ELISA and genotyped by PCR at the regional reference laboratory (RRL). Specimens were collected from 79% (n = 297) of eligible cases (n = 375); 100% of which were tested for rotavirus by ELISA and 54% (159/297) of them were positive. At RRL, all the cases were confirmed by PCR and genotyped (99%; 158/159). The typing results revealed the predominance of G12 (40%; 64/159) genotype, followed by G1 (31%; 50/159) and G9 (19%; 31/159). All in all, this exploratory surveillance collected the desired demographic and epidemiological data and achieved almost all the benchmark indicators of WHO, starting from enrollment number to quality assurance through a number of case detection, collection, and testing of specimens and genotyping of strains at RRL. The success of this WHO-IBD site in achieving these benchmark indicators of WHO can be used by WHO as a proof-of-concept for considering integration of rotavirus surveillance with WHO-IBD platforms, specifically in countries with well performing IBD site and no ongoing rotavirus surveillance.     

Cost Evaluation of Reproductive and Primary Health Care Mobile Service Delivery for Women in Two Rural Districts in South Africa

Background

Cervical cancer screening is a critical health service that is often unavailable to women in under-resourced settings. In order to expand access to this and other reproductive and primary health care services, a South African non-governmental organization established a van-based mobile clinic in two rural districts in South Africa. To inform policy and budgeting, we conducted a cost evaluation of this service delivery model.

Methods

The evaluation was retrospective (October 2012–September 2013 for one district and April–September 2013 for the second district) and conducted from a provider cost perspective. Services evaluated included cervical cancer screening, HIV counselling and testing, syndromic management of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), breast exams, provision of condoms, contraceptives, and general health education. Fixed costs, including vehicle purchase and conversion, equipment, operating costs and mobile clinic staffing, were collected from program records and public sector pricing information. The number of women accessing different services was multiplied by ingredients-based variable costs, reflecting the consumables required. All costs are reported in 2013 USD.

Results

Fixed costs accounted for most of the total annual costs of the mobile clinics (85% and 94% for the two districts); the largest contributor to annual fixed costs was staff salaries. Average costs per patient were driven by the total number of patients seen, at $46.09 and $76.03 for the two districts. Variable costs for Pap smears were higher than for other services provided, and some services, such as breast exams and STI and tuberculosis symptoms screening, had no marginal cost.

Conclusions

Staffing costs are the largest component of providing mobile health services to rural communities. Yet, in remote areas where patient volumes do not exceed nursing staff capacity, incorporating multiple services within a cervical cancer screening program is an approach to potentially expand access to health care without added costs.     

The Mpumalanga Men's Study (MPMS): Results of a Baseline Biological and Behavioral HIV Surveillance Survey in Two MSM Communities in South Africa

The Mpumalanga Men''s Study (MPMS) is the assessment of the Project Boithato HIV prevention intervention for South African MSM. Boithato aims to increase consistent condom use, regular testing for HIV-negative MSM, and linkage to care for HIV-positive MSM. The MPMS baseline examined HIV prevalence and associated risk behaviors, and testing, care, and treatment behaviors among MSM in Gert Sibande and Ehlanzeni districts in Mpumalanga province, South Africa in order to effectively target intervention activities. We recruited 307 MSM in Gert Sibande and 298 in Ehlanzeni through respondent-driven sampling (RDS) between September 2012-March 2013. RDS-adjusted HIV prevalence estimates are 28.3% (95% CI 21.1%–35.3%) in Gert Sibande, and 13.7% (95% CI 9.1%–19.6%) in Ehlanzeni. Prevalence is significantly higher among MSM over age 25 [57.8% (95% CI 43.1%–72.9%) vs. 17.9% (95% CI 10.6%–23.9%), P<0.001 in Gert Sibande; 34.5% (95%CI 20.5%–56.0%) vs. 9.1% (95% CI 4.6%–13.9%), P<0.001 in Ehlanzeni]. In Gert Sibande, prevalence is higher among self-identified gay and transgender MSM vs. other MSM [39.3% (95%CI, 28.3%–47.9%), P<0.01], inconsistent condom users [38.1% (18.1%–64.2%), P<0.05], those with a current regular male partner [35.0% (27.1%–46.4%), P<0.05], and those with lifetime experience of intimate partner violence with men [40.4%, (95%CI 28.9%–50.9%), P<0.05]. Prevalence of previous HIV testing was 65.8% (95%CI 58.8%–74.0%) in Gert Sibande, and 69.3% (95%CI 61.9%–76.8%) in Ehlanzeni. Regular HIV testing was uncommon [(34.6%, (95%CI 27.9%–41.4%) in Gert Sibande; 31.0% (95%CI 24.9%–37.8%) in Ehlanzeni]. Among HIV-positive participants, few knew their status (28.1% in Gert Sibande and 14.5% in Ehlanzeni), or were appropriately linked to care (18.2% and 11.3%, respectively), or taking antiretroviral therapy (13.6% and 9.6% respectively). MPMS results demonstrate the importance of implementing interventions for MSM to increase consistent condom use, regular HIV testing, and linkage and engagement in care for HIV-infected MSM.     

Two new species of Askidiosperma (Restionaceae) from South Africa

Askidiosperma delicatulum , sp. nov., from the arid margins of the Cold Bokkeveld mountains in the Western Cape Province, South Africa, is described and illustrated. A. chartaceum ssp. alticolum is raised to specific level. A new key to the species in the genus Askidiosperma is provided.     

Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa

Background

Women have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed—at the population level—whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade.

Methods and Findings

Data were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually.Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82–1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60–0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends.

Conclusions

Mass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female–male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.