Spatio-temporal modelling of heat stress and climate change implications for the Murray dairy region,Australia

The Murray dairy region produces approximately 1.85 billion litres of milk each year, representing about 20 % of Australia’s total annual milk production. An ongoing production challenge in this region is the management of the impacts of heat stress during spring and summer. An increase in the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events due to climate change may result in additional heat stress and production losses. This paper assesses the changing nature of heat stress now, and into the future, using historical data and climate change projections for the region using the temperature humidity index (THI). Projected temperature and relative humidity changes from two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO MK3.5 and CCR-MIROC-H, have been used to calculate THI values for 2025 and 2050, and summarized as mean occurrence of, and mean length of consecutive high heat stress periods. The future climate scenarios explored show that by 2025 an additional 12–15 days (compared to 1971 to 2000 baseline data) of moderate to severe heat stress are likely across much of the study region. By 2050, larger increases in severity and occurrence of heat stress are likely (i.e. an additional 31–42 moderate to severe heat stress days compared with baseline data). This increasing trend will have a negative impact on milk production among dairy cattle in the region. The results from this study provide useful insights on the trends in THI in the region. Dairy farmers and the dairy industry could use these results to devise and prioritise adaptation options to deal with projected increases in heat stress frequency and severity.     

泽西牛犊对热胁迫的生理应答及其作为动物福利下降指标的潜在应用性

本研究以泽西奶牛(Bostaurus)牛犊为对象,探讨温、热环境(30℃)下短暂暴露是否影响其体温、心跳和呼吸频率以及细胞和内分泌应激反应(皮质醇、甲状腺激素、牛生长激素及热应激蛋白72)。结果表明:热暴露导致呼吸频率和心率加快,体温显著升高,但幅度较小。在所研究的细胞和内分泌应激反应中,血浆甲状腺激素浓度略下降,肌肉热应激蛋白72的浓度稍增加。因此,尽管夏季饲养动物所经历的较高环境温度(但非极端温度)能影响泽西牛犊的生理,但是泽西牛犊能对温和的暂时性环境温度改变做出适应性反应。我们认为,直肠温度和细胞热应激蛋白72浓度是所研究参数中评价热胁迫降低动物福利的最适指标。     

Modeling heat stress effects on dairy cattle milk production in a tropical environment using test-day records and random regression models

In tropical environments, dairy cattle production is constrained by several factors, including climate. The seasonal loss of milk due to heat stress is a recurring challenge for many dairy producers. The objective of this study was to detect heat stress thresholds, milk yield loss and individual animal variations using random regression models for dairy cattle from test-day milk records. Data were obtained from the Kenya Livestock Breeders Organization for the years 2000–2017 and merged with weather data. The weather parameters were grid-interpolated solar and meteorological data obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER). After editing, the records comprised 49 993, 45 251 and 36 136 test-day records for first, second, and third lactations, respectively, for the four main dairy breeds: Friesian (68.0%), Ayrshire (21.1%), Jersey (7.6%) and Guernsey (3.3%). Variance components were estimated using Restricted Maximum Likelihood in ASReml software. Random regression models with third-order Legendre polynomials were fitted to the average and individual lactation curves and the reaction norms. An extended factor analytic variance structure for the random cow effects was used to estimate (co)variances between days in milk and thermal load. The daily average temperature (TA) and temperature humidity index (THI) were identified as the most suitable thermal load indicators for assessing milk yield losses. Considering a one day lag, the estimated heat stress thresholds were about 22 °C and 69 index units for TA and THI, respectively. Almost no differences were observed for estimated residual variances between the thermal load indicators, indicating there was no better model fit by TA or THI. The heat stress thresholds and milk loss patterns are important for management of dairy production systems in the tropics with climatic conditions similar to this study. Data recording should be improved as a tool to monitor the expected impacts of climate change and mitigation measures.     

Differences in the rumen methanogen populations of lactating Jersey and Holstein dairy cows under the same diet regimen

In the dairy cattle industry, Holstein and Jersey are the breeds most commonly used for production. They differ in performance by various traits, such as body size, milk production, and milk composition. With increased concerns about the impact of agriculture on climate change, potential differences in other traits, such as methane emission, also need to be characterized further. Since methane is produced in the rumen by methanogenic archaea, we investigated whether the population structure of methanogen communities would differ between Holsteins and Jerseys. Breed-specific rumen methanogen 16S rRNA gene clone libraries were constructed from pooled PCR products obtained from lactating Holstein and Jersey cows, generating 180 and 185 clones, respectively. The combined 365 sequences were assigned to 55 species-level operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Twenty OTUs, representing 85% of the combined library sequences, were common to both breeds, while 23 OTUs (36 sequences) were found only in the Holstein library and 12 OTUs (18 sequences) were found only in the Jersey library, highlighting increased diversity in the Holstein library. Other differences included the observation that sequences with species-like sequence identity to Methanobrevibacter millerae were represented more highly in the Jersey breed, while Methanosphaera-related sequences and novel uncultured methanogen clones were more frequent in the Holstein library. In contrast, OTU sequences with species-level sequence identity to Methanobrevibacter ruminantium were represented similarly in both libraries. Since the sampled animals were from a single herd consisting of two breeds which were fed the same diet and maintained under the same environmental conditions, the differences we observed may be due to differences in host breed genetics.     

Impact of including growth,carcass and feed efficiency traits in the breeding goal for combined milk and beef production systems

Improving feed efficiency in dairy cattle could result in more profitable and environmentally sustainable dairy production through lowering feed costs and emissions from dairy farming. In addition, beef production based on dairy herds generates fewer greenhouse gas emissions per unit of meat output than beef production from suckler cow systems. Different scenarios were used to assess the profitability of adding traits, excluded from the current selection index for Finnish Ayrshire, to the breeding goal for combined dairy and beef production systems. The additional breeding goal traits were growth traits (average daily gain of animals in the fattening and rearing periods), carcass traits (fat covering, fleshiness and dressing percentage), mature live weight (LW) of cows and residual feed intake (RFI) traits. A breeding scheme was modeled for Finnish Ayrshire under the current market situation in Finland using the deterministic simulation software ZPLAN+. With the economic values derived for the current production system, the inclusion of growth and carcass traits, while preventing LW increase generated the highest improvement in the discounted profit of the breeding program (3.7%), followed by the scenario where all additional traits were included simultaneously (5.1%). The use of a selection index that included growth and carcass traits excluding LW, increased the profit (0.8%), but reduced the benefits resulted from breeding for beef traits together with LW. A moderate decrease in the profit of the breeding program was obtained when adding only LW to the breeding goal (−3.1%), whereas, adding only RFI traits to the breeding goal resulted in a minor increase in the profit (1.4%). Including beef traits with LW in the breeding goal showed to be the most potential option to improve the profitability of the combined dairy and beef production systems and would also enable a higher rate of self-sufficiency in beef. When considering feed efficiency related traits, the inclusion of LW traits in the breeding goal that includes growth and carcass traits could be more profitable than the inclusion of RFI, because the marginal costs of measuring LW can be expected to be lower than for RFI and it is readily available for selection. In addition, before RFI can be implemented as a breeding objective, the genetic correlations between RFI and other breeding goal traits estimated for the studied population as well as information on the most suitable indicator traits for RFI are needed to assess more carefully the consequences of selecting for RFI.     

Impact of heat stress on conception rate of dairy cows in the moderate climate considering different temperature–humidity index thresholds,periods relative to breeding,and heat load indices

The objectives of this retrospective study were to investigate the relationship between temperature–humidity index (THI) and conception rate (CR) of lactating dairy cows, to estimate a threshold for this relationship, and to identify periods of exposure to heat stress relative to breeding in an area of moderate climate. In addition, we compared three different heat load indices related to CR: mean THI, maximum THI, and number of hours above the mean THI threshold. The THI threshold for the influence of heat stress on CR was 73. It was statistically chosen based on the observed relationship between the mean THI at the day of breeding and the resulting CR. Negative effects of heat stress, however, were already apparent at lower levels of THI, and 1 hour of mean THI of 73 or more decreased the CR significantly. The CR of lactating dairy cows was negatively affected by heat stress both before and after the day of breeding. The greatest negative impact of heat stress on CR was observed 21 to 1 day before breeding. When the mean THI was 73 or more in this period, CR decreased from 31% to 12%. Compared with the average maximum THI and the total number of hours above a threshold of more than or 9 hours, the mean THI was the most sensitive heat load index relating to CR. These results indicate that the CR of dairy cows raised in the moderate climates is highly affected by heat stress.     

Expression of HSP70 genes in skin of zebu (Tharparkar) and crossbred (Karan Fries) cattle during different seasons under tropical climatic conditions

Skin is most important environmental interface providing a protective envelope to animals. It's always under the influence of both internal and external stressors. Heat shock proteins (HSP) are highly conserved stress proteins which play crucial roles in environmental stress tolerance and thermal adaptation. Present study was planned to observe the relative mRNA expression of inducible (HSP70.1 and HSP70.2) and constitutive (HSP70.8) HSP in skin of zebu (Tharparkar) and crossbred (Karan Fries) cattle during different seasons. Skin biopsies were collected from rump region of each animal, aseptically during winter, spring and summer season. Quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction was performed to examine the gene expression of constitutive (HSP70.8) and inducible (HSP70.1 and HSP70.2) HSP in skin of both the breeds during different seasons. Present study observed higher expression of both constitutive and inducible HSP genes in both the breeds during summer and winter than spring season, but magnitude of increase was higher during summer than winter. During summer season, expression pattern of HSPs in skin showed breed differences, where constitutive HSP expression was higher in Tharparkar than Karan Fries and that of inducible HSP was higher in Karan Fries than Tharparkar. Hence, present study suggested that HSP may be conveniently used as biomarkers for assessing protective response of skin against heat stress in zebu and crossbred cattle. Variation in expression between breeds is associated with their heat tolerance and thermal adaptability. In summary, skin of zebu cattle (Tharparkar) is more resistant to summer stress than crossbred (Karan Fries), providing greater protection against heat stress during summer season. Superior skin protective mechanism of zebu (Tharparkar) than crossbred (Karan-Fries) cattle against heat stress may contribute to superior adaptability of zebu cattle to tropical climatic conditions than crossbreed.     

Future consequences and challenges for dairy cow production systems arising from climate change in Central Europe – a review

It is well documented that global warming is unequivocal. Dairy production systems are considered as important sources of greenhouse gas emissions; however, little is known about the sensitivity and vulnerability of these production systems themselves to climate warming. This review brings different aspects of dairy cow production in Central Europe into focus, with a holistic approach to emphasize potential future consequences and challenges arising from climate change. With the current understanding of the effects of climate change, it is expected that yield of forage per hectare will be influenced positively, whereas quality will mainly depend on water availability and soil characteristics. Thus, the botanical composition of future grassland should include species that are able to withstand the changing conditions (e.g. lucerne and bird's foot trefoil). Changes in nutrient concentration of forage plants, elevated heat loads and altered feeding patterns of animals may influence rumen physiology. Several promising nutritional strategies are available to lower potential negative impacts of climate change on dairy cow nutrition and performance. Adjustment of feeding and drinking regimes, diet composition and additive supplementation can contribute to the maintenance of adequate dairy cow nutrition and performance. Provision of adequate shade and cooling will reduce the direct effects of heat stress. As estimated genetic parameters are promising, heat stress tolerance as a functional trait may be included into breeding programmes. Indirect effects of global warming on the health and welfare of animals seem to be more complicated and thus are less predictable. As the epidemiology of certain gastrointestinal nematodes and liver fluke is favourably influenced by increased temperature and humidity, relations between climate change and disease dynamics should be followed closely. Under current conditions, climate change associated economic impacts are estimated to be neutral if some form of adaptation is integrated. Therefore, it is essential to establish and adopt mitigation strategies covering available tools from management, nutrition, health and plant and animal breeding to cope with the future consequences of climate change on dairy farming.     

Keeping profitable cows in the herd: A lifetime cost-benefit assessment to support culling decisions

Increasing the productive lifespan of dairy cows is important to achieve a sustainable dairy industry, but making strategic culling decisions based on cow profitability is challenging for farmers. The objective of this study was to carry out a lifetime cost-benefit analysis based on production and health records and to explore different culling decisions among farmers. The cost-benefit analysis was conducted for 22 747 dairy cows across 114 herds in Quebec, Canada for which feed costs and the occurrence of diseases were reported. Costs and revenues related to productive lifespan were compared among cohorts of cows that left their respective herd at the end of their last completed lactation or stayed for a complete additional lactation. Hierarchical clustering analysis was carried out based on costs and revenues to explore different culling decisions among farmers. Our results showed that the knowledge of lifetime cumulative costs and revenues was of great importance to identify low-profitable cows at an earlier lactation, while only focusing on current lactation costs and revenues can lead to an erroneous assessment of profitability. While culling decisions were mostly based on current lactation costs and revenues and disregarded the occurrence of costly events on previous lactations, there was variation among farmers as we identified three different culling decision clusters. Monitoring cumulative costs and revenues would help farmers to identify low-profitable cows at an earlier lactation and make the decision to increase herd productive lifespan and farm profitability by keeping the most profitable cows.     

Short term thermal relief for improved fertility in dairy cattle during hot weather

Cooling dairy cows to basal body temperatures in a climatic-control barn before inseminating and for 1 to 6.5 days after, improved fertility during early summer in the hot desert climate of Arizona. The treatment was not as effective during later summer months when the animals had been exposed to high climatic temperature for a longer period. Physiological adaptation to heat stress, inimical to normal reproduction, is apparently irreversible over the short cooling period.Arizona Agricultural Experiment Station Technical Paper No 2622.     

Tropically adapted cattle of Africa: perspectives on potential role of copy number variations

Africa is host to diverse and locally adapted cattle breeds that are expected to survive the harsh and extreme tropical environments associated with diseases and parasite infections, heat stress and episodes of feed and water scarcity. Genomic copy number variations (CNVs) are considered to be primary role players in cattle breed formation and adaptation where isolation and genetic drift together with subsequent mutations have created an enormous diversity of local populations. CNVs are modifications in DNA structure comprising deletions, duplications and insertions that are >1 kb in size. Despite attracting much attention, the frequency and pattern of bovine CNV events, especially in African cattle breeds, are for the most part largely unknown. Characterization of genetic variation in the indigenous cattle of Africa will be a vital step toward dissecting the molecular mechanisms underlying phenotypic variation and local adaptation. This review therefore aims to describe the current knowledge regarding bovine CNVs and the implications and potentials they encompass for dissecting genetic adaptation and the genotypic skeleton of tropical African cattle populations.     

Effect of heat stress on superoxide anion production in native and crossbred cattle under in vitro whole blood culture model

Impact of global warming on the dairy industry has gained attention due to huge economic losses through low production and fertility caused by heat stress. Exposure to hyperthermia provokes a series of complex responses in mammals which are been related to morphological and physiological alterations including the production of reactive oxygen species (ROS). A quantitative spectrophotometric based nitroblue tetrazolium (NBT) reduction assay was used to estimate the superoxide anion (•O₂⁻) level in heat stressed (at 42 °C) whole blood cultures of native and crossbred bulls (Sahiwal and Frieswal), in vitro. The breed effect in the kinetics of •O₂⁻ production at different time periods of continual heat stress was analyzed by repeated measures ANOVA. Comparison between different time periods in reference to 37 °C was analyzed by paired t-test. The •O₂⁻ level was significantly different (p < 0.05) between cells at 37 °C and 42 °C at different periods of incubation. Kinetics study showed increment of •O₂⁻ production on the acute phase of stress followed by a reduction in both Sahiwal and Frieswal breeds. In Sahiwal breed, the inflated superoxide level continued abated till 4 h and raised again at 6 h, while in Frieswal •O₂⁻ level reverted to raise sooner with in 2 h of incubation itself. Contrarily, kinetic of •O₂⁻ level in plasma showed a significant reduction (p < 0.001) at 30 min of 42 °C incubation followed by increment of •O₂⁻ level. Further, the breed variation was significant (p < 0.05) and a significant high reduction of •O₂⁻ level was observed in Sahiwal breed. Our finding indicates that, a better and longer •O₂⁻ production homeostasis and higher plasma scavenging ability of native breed may be one of the reasons for the higher thermal tolerance of these breeds in tropical climate.     

Thermal Stress Impacts on Reproductive Development and Grain Yield in Grain Legumes

Temperature stress (cold, heat) during reproductive development is one of the serious constraints to the productivity of grain legumes as their cultivation is expanding to warmer environments and temperature variability is increasing due to climate change. Grain legumes exposed to temperature below 10-15°C or above 30°C show flower abortion, pollen and ovule infertility, impaired fertilization, and reduced seed filling, leading to substantial reduction in grain yield. For managing these effects of temperature extremes, it is important to improve the resistance of grain legumes by using improved breeding and genetic engineering tools. In this review article, the impact of both high and low temperature stress on different phases of the reproductive stage, from meiosis to grain filling, and the sensitivity of different reproductive organs to temperature extremes are discussed. The review also covers the management options to improve resistance to temperature stress in grain legumes. Furthermore, innovative breeding, genetic and molecular strategies in grain legumes against temperature stress are also discussed.     

Hungarian indigenous Tsigai,a promising breed for excellent heat tolerance and immunity

The adverse effects of climate change on sheep farming have become more noticeable in recent decades. Extensive efforts have been made to untangle the complex relationship between heat tolerance, animal health, and productivity, also to identify a resilient and economically suitable breed for selection that can be resilient to future climate change conditions. Using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), we observed the seasonal variations in the expression of several important genes related to heat stress and immunity (HSP70, IL10, TLR2, TLR4, and TLR8) in three of the most widely kept sheep breeds in Hungary: The indigenous Tsigai, Hungarian Merino, and White Dorper. We found that the seasonal stressor affected the relative gene expression of all genes in this study. Notably, The Hungarian indigenous Tsigai was the most robust breed adapted to the Hungarian continental (hot summer, cold winter) environment, with excellent thermotolerance and immunity. Furthermore, despite suffering from heat stress in the summer, Hungarian Merino maintained their robust immune system well throughout the year.     

Local adaptation of reproductive performance during thermal stress

Considerable evidence exists for local adaptation of critical thermal limits in ectotherms following adult temperature stress, but fewer studies have tested for local adaptation of sublethal heat stress effects across life‐history stages. In organisms with complex life cycles, such as holometabolous insects, heat stress during juvenile stages may severely impact gametogenesis, having downstream consequences on reproductive performance that may be mediated by local adaptation, although this is rarely studied. Here, we tested how exposure to either benign or heat stress temperature during juvenile and adult stages, either independently or combined, influences egg‐to‐adult viability, adult sperm motility and fertility in high‐ and low‐latitude populations of Drosophila subobscura. We found both population‐ and temperature‐specific effects on survival and sperm motility; juvenile heat stress decreased survival and subsequent sperm motility and each trait was lower in the northern population. We found an interaction between population and temperature on fertility following application of juvenile heat stress; although fertility was negatively impacted in both populations, the southern population was less affected. When the adult stage was also subject to heat stress, the southern population exhibited positive carry‐over effects whereas the northern population's fertility remained low. Thus, the northern population is more susceptible to sublethal reproductive consequences following exposure to juvenile heat stress. This may be common in other organisms with complex life cycles and current models predicting population responses to climate change, which do not take into account the impact of juvenile heat stress on reproductive performance, may be too conservative.     

Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub‐Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development

Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub‐Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts.     

Improvement of heat and desiccation tolerance in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Heterorhabditis bacteriophora</Emphasis> through cross-breeding of tolerant strains and successive genetic selection

Genetic selection can be a powerful tool to increase beneficial traits in biological control agents. In this study the heat and desiccation tolerance of the entomopathogenic nematode Heterorhabditis bacteriophora Poinar (Rhabditidomorpha: Strongyloidea) were significantly increased by cross breeding tolerant parental strains and successive genetic selection. These strains originated from a prior screening among 60 strains for increased stress tolerance. During genetic selection, the selection pressure was constantly increased and only the most tolerant 10% of the nematode populations were propagated for further selection steps. Assessment of tolerance and selection for both traits was performed with and without prior adaptation to the stress conditions. Eleven selection steps were performed to increase heat tolerance. A final overall increase in mean heat tolerance of 5.5°C was achieved when nematodes had been adapted to heat stress. For non-adapted tolerance an increase of 3.0°C from 40.1°C to 43.1°C was recorded. For comparison, a commercial strain had a mean tolerated temperature after adaptation of 38.2°C and of 36.5°C without adaptation. For assessment of the desiccation tolerance the mean tolerated water activity (a_w-value) of a population was measured. Cross-breeding most tolerant strains reduced the a_w-value from 0.67 to 0.65 after adaptation and from 0.9 to 0.7 without prior adaptation. The following six selection steps could not increase the tolerance whether nematodes had been adapted to stress or not. In comparison, the commercial strain tolerated a mean a_w-value of 0.985 after adaptation and 0.951 without adaptation. Further investigation will have to assess trait stability and possible trade-off effects. This study is a first important step on the road towards domestication of the entomopathogenic nematode H. bacteriophora.     

Rattan,rubber, or oil palm: cultural and financial considerations for farmers in kalimantan

Forest-based farmers are faced with rapidly changing economic opportunities due to many factors. In response, farmers are changing their main economic activities and land uses. This study compares the financial costs and benefits of the principal land use options in two sub-districts of East Kalimantan Province, Indonesia. Financial benefits of oil palm plantation, traditional rattan gardens, intensive rubber plantation, and traditional rubber plantation are compared on a land unit basis. Oil palm is by far the most profitable, followed by rattan gardens. Rubber production, at current prices, is not profitable. Benefit-cost ratios and returns to labor, which better reflect the farmer perspective, reveal that rattan is more attractive, with oil palm in a strong second place. Non-financial considerations also help to explain the resilience of the rattan garden system. The conclusions summarize the findings and offer options to counter the strong negative impact of recent events on the rattan farmers.     

Dissecting the nonlinear response of maize yield to high temperature stress with model‐data integration

Evidence suggests that global maize yield declines with a warming climate, particularly with extreme heat events. However, the degree to which important maize processes such as biomass growth rate, growing season length (GSL) and grain formation are impacted by an increase in temperature is uncertain. Such knowledge is necessary to understand yield responses and develop crop adaptation strategies under warmer climate. Here crop models, satellite observations, survey, and field data were integrated to investigate how high temperature stress influences maize yield in the U.S. Midwest. We showed that both observational evidence and crop model ensemble mean (MEM) suggests the nonlinear sensitivity in yield was driven by the intensified sensitivity of harvest index (HI), but MEM underestimated the warming effects through HI and overstated the effects through GSL. Further analysis showed that the intensified sensitivity in HI mainly results from a greater sensitivity of yield to high temperature stress during the grain filling period, which explained more than half of the yield reduction. When warming effects were decomposed into direct heat stress and indirect water stress (WS), observational data suggest that yield is more reduced by direct heat stress (?4.6 ± 1.0%/°C) than by WS (?1.7 ± 0.65%/°C), whereas MEM gives opposite results. This discrepancy implies that yield reduction by heat stress is underestimated, whereas the yield benefit of increasing atmospheric CO₂ might be overestimated in crop models, because elevated CO₂ brings yield benefit through water conservation effect but produces limited benefit over heat stress. Our analysis through integrating data and crop models suggests that future adaptation strategies should be targeted at the heat stress during grain formation and changes in agricultural management need to be better accounted for to adequately estimate the effects of heat stress.