Sustainable,efficient livestock production with high biodiversity and good welfare for animals

What is the future for livestock agriculture in the world? Consumers have concerns about sustainability but many widely used livestock production methods do not satisfy consumers'' requirements for a sustainable system. However, production can be sustainable, occurring in environments that: supply the needs of the animals resulting in good welfare, allow coexistence with a wide diversity of organisms native to the area, minimize carbon footprint and provide a fair lifestyle for the people working there. Conservation need not just involve tiny islands of natural vegetation in a barren world of agriculture, as there can be great increases in biodiversity in farmed areas. Herbivores, especially ruminants that consume materials inedible by humans, are important for human food in the future. However, their diet should not be just ground-level plants. Silvopastoral systems, pastures with shrubs and trees as well as herbage, are described which are normally more productive than pasture alone. When compared with widely used livestock production systems, silvopastoral systems can provide efficient feed conversion, higher biodiversity, enhanced connectivity between habitat patches and better animal welfare, so they can replace existing systems in many parts of the world and should be further developed.     

Aggregation of measures to produce an overall assessment of animal welfare. Part 2: analysis of constraints

The overall assessment of animal welfare is a multicriterion evaluation problem that needs a constructive strategy to compound information produced by many measures. The construction depends on specific features such as the concept of welfare, the measures used and the way data are collected. Welfare is multidimensional and one dimension probably cannot fully compensate for another one (e.g. good health cannot fully compensate for behavioural deprivation). Welfare measures may vary in precision, relevance and their relative contribution to an overall welfare assessment. The data collected are often expressed on ordinal scales, which limits the use of weighted sums to aggregate them. A sequential aggregation is proposed in the Welfare Quality® project, first from measures to welfare criteria (corresponding to dimensions with pre-set objectives) and then to an overall welfare assessment, using rules determined at each level depending on the nature and number of variables to be considered and the level of compensation to be permitted. Scientific evidence and expert opinion are used to refine the model, and stakeholders’ approval of general principles is sought. This approach could potentially be extended to other problems in agriculture such as the overall assessment of the sustainability of production systems.     

Aggregation of measures to produce an overall assessment of animal welfare. Part 1: a review of existing methods

Several systems have been proposed for the overall assessment of animal welfare at the farm level for the purpose of advising farmers or assisting public decision-making. They are generally based on several measures compounded into a single evaluation, using different rules to assemble the information. Here we discuss the different methods used to aggregate welfare measures and their applicability to certification schemes involving welfare. Data obtained on a farm can be (i) analysed by an expert who draws an overall conclusion; (ii) compared with minimal requirements set for each measure; (iii) converted into ranks, which are then summed; or (iv) converted into values or scores compounded in a weighted sum (e.g. TGI35L) or using ad hoc rules. Existing methods used at present (at least when used exclusively) may be insufficiently sensitive or not routinely applicable, or may not reflect the multidimensional nature of welfare and the relative importance of various welfare measures. It is concluded that different methods may be used at different stages of the construction of an overall assessment of animal welfare, depending on the constraints imposed on the aggregation process.     

Main animal welfare problems in ruminant livestock during preslaughter operations: a South American view

Animals destined for meat production are usually exposed to many stressful conditions during production and particularly during preslaughter operations. Handling animals on farm, loading into and unloading from vehicles, transportation, passing through livestock markets, fasting, lairage and stunning can all affect their welfare. How badly welfare can be affected will depend on both the intrinsic factors of the specific type of animal involved and the extrinsic factors of the environment where those animals live or are being handled, including the animal handlers. In South America (SA), it has been part of a strategy for improving animal welfare (AW) to address not only ethical aspects, but to emphasize the close relationship existing between handling ruminants preslaughter and the quantity and quality of the meat they produce. This has resulted not only in improvements in AW, but has also brought economic rewards to producers which in turn can lead to higher incomes for them and hence better human welfare. For producers with a high number of animals, considering AW during production and preslaughter operations can determine the possibility of exporting and/or getting better prices for their products. At smallfarmer level, particularly in some less developed countries, where human welfare is impaired, using this strategy together with education has also been relevant. It is important that education and training in AW are done not only considering global knowledge, but also including specific geographical and climatic characteristics of each country and the cultural, religious and socio-economical characteristics of its people; therefore, research within the context of each country or region becomes relevant. The aim of this review was to show the results of research dealing with AW of ruminant livestock in Chile and some other SA countries. Some of the main problems encountered are related to lack of proper infrastructure to handle animals; long distance transport with high stocking densities in the larger countries; long fasting times due to animals passing through livestock markets and dealers; bad handling of animals by untrained personnel in these and other premises; and finally the lack of knowledge and skills by operators in charge of stunning procedures. Interventions at these stages have considered training animal handlers and transporters by showing them the consequences of bad handling with audiovisual material prepared on site. Research results have helped to improve AW and support the development of new legislation or to make changes in the existent legislation related to AW.     

Perceptions of the importance of different welfare issues in livestock production

The opinions of seven respondent groups about the relative importance of different practices pertaining to the welfare of Australian beef cattle, sheep and goats were surveyed. Respondent groups comprised farmers, livestock transportation representatives, veterinarians, meat processors, animal welfare advocates, animal welfare scientists and government officers. The survey consisted of a web-based adaptive conjoint analysis questionnaire, which was administered to a sample population that was selected randomly for large respondent groups and comprehensively for small groups. The hierarchy of opinion concerning the importance of the different beef cattle practices was: stockmanship > ground (road and rail) transport > spaying > food supply > dehorning > stunning > shelter > identification > pretransport food and water deprivation > castration > sea transport > mustering > confinement. For sheep/goat practices the hierarchy was: parasite control > mulesing > shelter > stockmanship > tail docking > ground transport > feeding > predation > stunning > castration > pretransport food and water deprivation > sea transport > mustering. The method of performing invasive procedures was perceived as less important than the provision of pain relief. Differences in opinion were evident between respondent groups, with animal welfare advocates tending to focus on painful procedures more than those with direct involvement in the industry.     

Livestock greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential in Europe

The livestock sector contributes considerably to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Here, for the year 2007 we examined GHG emissions in the EU27 livestock sector and estimated GHG emissions from production and consumption of livestock products; including imports, exports and wastage. We also reviewed available mitigation options and estimated their potential. The focus of this review is on the beef and dairy sector since these contribute 60% of all livestock production emissions. Particular attention is paid to the role of land use and land use change (LULUC) and carbon sequestration in grasslands. GHG emissions of all livestock products amount to between 630 and 863 Mt CO₂e, or 12–17% of total EU27 GHG emissions in 2007. The highest emissions aside from production, originate from LULUC, followed by emissions from wasted food. The total GHG mitigation potential from the livestock sector in Europe is between 101 and 377 Mt CO₂e equivalent to between 12 and 61% of total EU27 livestock sector emissions in 2007. A reduction in food waste and consumption of livestock products linked with reduced production, are the most effective mitigation options, and if encouraged, would also deliver environmental and human health benefits. Production of beef and dairy on grassland, as opposed to intensive grain fed production, can be associated with a reduction in GHG emissions depending on actual LULUC emissions. This could be promoted on rough grazing land where appropriate.     

Indicators used in livestock to assess unconsciousness after stunning: a review

Assessing unconsciousness is important to safeguard animal welfare shortly after stunning at the slaughter plant. Indicators that can be visually evaluated are most often used when assessing unconsciousness, as they can be easily applied in slaughter plants. These indicators include reflexes originating from the brain stem (e.g. eye reflexes) or from the spinal cord (e.g. pedal reflex) and behavioural indicators such as loss of posture, vocalisations and rhythmic breathing. When physically stunning an animal, for example, captive bolt, most important indicators looked at are posture, righting reflex, rhythmic breathing and the corneal or palpebral reflex that should all be absent if the animal is unconscious. Spinal reflexes are difficult as a measure of unconsciousness with this type of stunning, as they may occur more vigorous. For stunning methods that do not physically destroy the brain, for example, electrical and gas stunning, most important indicators looked at are posture, righting reflex, natural blinking response, rhythmic breathing, vocalisations and focused eye movement that should all be absent if the animal is unconscious. Brain stem reflexes such as the cornea reflex are difficult as measures of unconsciousness in electrically stunned animals, as they may reflect residual brain stem activity and not necessarily consciousness. Under commercial conditions, none of the indicators mentioned above should be used as a single indicator to determine unconsciousness after stunning. Multiple indicators should be used to determine unconsciousness and sufficient time should be left for the animal to die following exsanguination before starting invasive dressing procedures such as scalding or skinning. The recording and subsequent assessment of brain activity, as presented in an electroencephalogram (EEG), is considered the most objective way to assess unconsciousness compared with reflexes and behavioural indicators, but is only applied in experimental set-ups. Studies performed in an experimental set-up have often looked at either the EEG or reflexes and behavioural indicators and there is a scarcity of studies that correlate these different readout parameters. It is recommended to study these correlations in more detail to investigate the validity of reflexes and behavioural indicators and to accurately determine the point in time at which the animal loses consciousness.     

Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970–2050

Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land‐use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya–Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop‐ and livestock‐production, respectively. Except for the energy‐use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business‐as‐usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20–55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2–14.5 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food‐system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis.     

The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.     

The broad impacts of corn stover and wheat straw removal for biofuel production on crop productivity,soil health and greenhouse gas emissions: A review

Biofuel production from crop residues is widely recognized as an essential component of developing a bioeconomy, but the removal of crop residues still raises many questions about the sustainability of the cropping system. Therefore, this study reviews the sustainability effects of crop residues removal for biofuel production in terms of crop production, soil health and greenhouse gas emissions. Most studies found little evidence that residue management had long‐term impacts on grain yield unless the available water is limited. In years when water was not limiting, corn and wheat removal rates ≥90% produced similar or greater grain yield than no removal in most studies. Conversely, when water was limiting, corn grain yield decreased up to 21% with stover removal ≥90% in some studies. Changes in soil organic fractions and nutrients depended largely on the amount of residue returned, soil depth and texture, slope and tillage. Reductions in organic fractions occurred primarily with complete stover removal, in the top 15–30 cm in fine‐textured soils. Soil erosion, water runoff and leaching of nutrients such as total nitrogen (N) and extractable soil potassium decreased when no more than 30% of crop residues were removed. Stover management effects on soil bulk density varied considerably depending on soil layer, and residue and tillage management, with removal rates of less than 50% helping to maintain the soil aggregate stability. Reductions in CO₂ and N₂O fluxes typically occurred following complete residue removal. The use of wheat straw typically increased CH₄ emissions, and above or equal to 8 Mg/ha wheat straw led to the largest CO₂ and N₂O emissions, regardless of N rates. Before using crop residues for biofuel production, it should therefore always be checked whether neutral to positive sustainability effects can be maintained under the site‐specific conditions.     

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action

Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries.     

Sequential sampling: a novel method in farm animal welfare assessment

Lameness in dairy cows is an important welfare issue. As part of a welfare assessment, herd level lameness prevalence can be estimated from scoring a sample of animals, where higher levels of accuracy are associated with larger sample sizes. As the financial cost is related to the number of cows sampled, smaller samples are preferred. Sequential sampling schemes have been used for informing decision making in clinical trials. Sequential sampling involves taking samples in stages, where sampling can stop early depending on the estimated lameness prevalence. When welfare assessment is used for a pass/fail decision, a similar approach could be applied to reduce the overall sample size. The sampling schemes proposed here apply the principles of sequential sampling within a diagnostic testing framework. This study develops three sequential sampling schemes of increasing complexity to classify 80 fully assessed UK dairy farms, each with known lameness prevalence. Using the Welfare Quality herd-size-based sampling scheme, the first ‘basic’ scheme involves two sampling events. At the first sampling event half the Welfare Quality sample size is drawn, and then depending on the outcome, sampling either stops or is continued and the same number of animals is sampled again. In the second ‘cautious’ scheme, an adaptation is made to ensure that correctly classifying a farm as ‘bad’ is done with greater certainty. The third scheme is the only scheme to go beyond lameness as a binary measure and investigates the potential for increasing accuracy by incorporating the number of severely lame cows into the decision. The three schemes are evaluated with respect to accuracy and average sample size by running 100 000 simulations for each scheme, and a comparison is made with the fixed size Welfare Quality herd-size-based sampling scheme. All three schemes performed almost as well as the fixed size scheme but with much smaller average sample sizes. For the third scheme, an overall association between lameness prevalence and the proportion of lame cows that were severely lame on a farm was found. However, as this association was found to not be consistent across all farms, the sampling scheme did not prove to be as useful as expected. The preferred scheme was therefore the ‘cautious’ scheme for which a sampling protocol has also been developed.     

Mitigating the greenhouse gas balance of ruminant production systems through carbon sequestration in grasslands

Soil carbon sequestration (enhanced sinks) is the mechanism responsible for most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential in the agriculture sector. Carbon sequestration in grasslands can be determined directly by measuring changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and indirectly by measuring the net balance of C fluxes. A literature search shows that grassland C sequestration reaches on average 5 ± 30 g C/m2 per year according to inventories of SOC stocks and -231 and 77 g C/m2 per year for drained organic and mineral soils, respectively, according to C flux balance. Off-site C sequestration occurs whenever more manure C is produced by than returned to a grassland plot. The sum of on- and off-site C sequestration reaches 129, 98 and 71 g C/m2 per year for grazed, cut and mixed European grasslands on mineral soils, respectively, however with high uncertainty. A range of management practices reduce C losses and increase C sequestration: (i) avoiding soil tillage and the conversion of grasslands to arable use, (ii) moderately intensifying nutrient-poor permanent grasslands, (iii) using light grazing instead of heavy grazing, (iv) increasing the duration of grass leys; (v) converting grass leys to grass-legume mixtures or to permanent grasslands. With nine European sites, direct emissions of N2O from soil and of CH4 from enteric fermentation at grazing, expressed in CO2 equivalents, compensated 10% and 34% of the on-site grassland C sequestration, respectively. Digestion inside the barn of the harvested herbage leads to further emissions of CH4 and N2O by the production systems, which were estimated at 130 g CO2 equivalents/m2 per year. The net balance of on- and off-site C sequestration, CH4 and N2O emissions reached 38 g CO2 equivalents/m2 per year, indicating a non-significant net sink activity. This net balance was, however, negative for intensively managed cut sites indicating a source to the atmosphere. In conclusion, this review confirms that grassland C sequestration has a strong potential to partly mitigate the GHG balance of ruminant production systems. However, as soil C sequestration is both reversible and vulnerable to disturbance, biodiversity loss and climate change, CH4 and N2O emissions from the livestock sector need to be reduced and current SOC stocks preserved.     

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land‐use and energy experts, land‐use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life‐cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end‐use efficiency, improved land carbon‐stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small‐scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100 EJ: high agreement; 100–300 EJ: medium agreement; above 300 EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245 EJ yr^?1 to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large‐scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land‐intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.     

Damaged forests provide an opportunity to mitigate climate change

British Columbia (BC) forests are estimated to have become a net carbon source in recent years due to tree death and decay caused primarily by mountain pine beetle (MPB) and related post‐harvest slash burning practices. BC forest biomass has also become a major source of wood pellets, exported primarily for bioenergy to Europe, although the sustainability and net carbon emissions of forest bioenergy in general are the subject of current debate. We simulated the temporal carbon balance of BC wood pellets against different reference scenarios for forests affected by MPB in the interior BC timber harvesting area using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM‐CFS3). We evaluated the carbon dynamics for different insect‐mortality levels, at the stand‐ and landscape level, taking into account carbon storage in the ecosystem, wood products and fossil fuel displacement. Our results indicate that current harvesting practices, in which slash is burnt and only sawdust used for pellet production, require between 20–25 years for beetle‐impacted pine and 37–39 years for spruce‐dominated systems to reach pre‐harvest carbon levels (i.e. break‐even) at the stand‐level. Using pellets made from logging slash to replace coal creates immediate net carbon benefits to the atmosphere of 17–21 tonnes C ha^?1, shortening these break‐even times by 9–20 years and resulting in an instant carbon break‐even level on stands most severely impacted by the beetle. Harvesting pine dominated sites for timber while using slash for bioenergy was also found to be more carbon beneficial than a protection reference scenario on both stand‐ and landscape level. However, harvesting stands exclusively for bioenergy resulted in a net carbon source unless the system contained a high proportion of dead trees (>85%). Systems with higher proportions of living trees provide a greater climate change mitigation if used for long lived wood products.     

Implementing an appropriate metric for the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock production: A national case study

Livestock farming is of major economic relevance but also severely contributes to environmental impacts, especially greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as methane (CH₄; particularly from ruminant production) and nitrous oxide (N₂O; mainly from manure management and soil cultivated for feed production). In this study, we analyse the impact of GHG emissions from Austrian livestock production, using two metrics: a) the commonly used global warming potential (GWP) over 100 years (GWP₁₀₀ in CO₂-equivalents, CO₂-e), and b) the recently introduced metric GWP*, which describes additional warming as a function of the timeline of short-lived GHG emissions (unit CO₂ warming equivalents, CO₂-we). We first compiled the sectoral (i.e. only direct emissions without upstream processes) GWP₁₀₀ for different livestock categories with a focus on dairy cattle, beef cattle and pigs in Austria between 1990 and 2019. We also estimated product-related (i.e. per kg carcass weight or per litre of milk) GWP₁₀₀ values, including upstream processes. We then calculated the corresponding GWP* metrics, both sectoral and product-related, and compared them with the GWP₁₀₀ values. Decreasing livestock numbers and improved production efficiency were found to result in strong sectoral emission reductions from dairy production (–32 % of GWP₁₀₀ from 1990 to 2019) and from pigs (–32 % CO₂-e). This contrasts with low reductions from other livestock categories and even increases for cattle other than dairy cows (+3 % CO₂-e), mainly due to rising suckler cow numbers. Allocated results per kg milk and kg body mass show quite similar results. Using the GWP* metric, the climate impacts of Austrian livestock production are less severe. When assuming constant management and emission intensity over a period of at least 20 years, the CO₂-we (GWP*) is almost 50 % less than CO₂-e (GWP₁₀₀) per kg Austrian raw milk due to the different impacts of the short-lived CH₄. A similar trend applies to an average cattle carcass (-40 % warming impact). The emission reductions of the shrinking Austrian livestock population represent an important contribution to a climate-neutral agriculture: The CH₄ reductions of livestock production during the past 20 years reduce the current total Austrian CO₂-we by 16 %. Continuous CH₄ reduction, as we show it here for Austrian livestock, is an effective option to tackle the climate crisis in the short term. It shall be stressed that a relatively low GWP* should not be interpreted as a concession for further CH₄ emissions but as an actual reduction of (additional) warming.     

The welfare of growing pigs in five different production systems: assessment of feeding and housing

Ninety-one farms were visited over a 2-year period to assess the welfare of growing pigs in five different production systems found either in France or in Spain using the Welfare Quality® protocol. This study focused on animal-based measures as indicators of ‘good feeding’ and ‘good housing’. Multiple Generalized Linear Mixed Models were performed for each measure to evaluate the differences between production systems and to detect possible causal factors. Pigs in the conventional system presented the lowest prevalence of poor body condition, whereas extensive Mallorcan Black pigs and extensive Iberian pigs were associated with a decreased prevalence of bursitis and pig dirtiness. The straw-bedded system presented a lower prevalence of bursitis, but poorer hygiene and more susceptibility of poor body condition than the conventional system. The age of the animals had a significant effect on the appearance of bursitis in the three intensive systems studied. The type of floor was a significant causal factor of bursitis and pig dirtiness in the conventional system and among intensive Iberian pigs. The feeding system was another causal factor of pig dirtiness on more than 50% of the body in the conventional system, whereas pig dirtiness on less than 50% of the body was influenced by the age of the animals. The prevalence of huddling animals in the conventional system was associated with the highest stocking densities and the lowest environmental temperatures. The results indicate that there were important differences between production systems based on animal-based indicators of the good feeding and housing principles. The recording of the age of the animals, type of floor, feeding system, stocking density and environmental temperature can be useful to predict the appearance of a given welfare measure of ‘good housing’ on a farm.     

Implications of emissions timing on the cost‐effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: application to forest bioenergy systems

Conventional cost‐effectiveness calculations ignore the implications of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions timing and thus may not properly inform decision‐makers in the efficient allocation of resources to mitigate climate change. To begin to address this disconnect with climate change science, we modify the conventional cost‐effectiveness approach to account for emissions timing. GHG emissions flows occurring over time are translated into an ‘Equivalent Present Emission’ based on radiative forcing, enabling a comparison of system costs and emissions on a consistent present time basis. We apply this ‘Present Cost‐Effectiveness’ method to case studies of biomass‐based electricity generation (biomass co‐firing with coal, biomass cogeneration) to evaluate implications of forest carbon trade‐offs on the cost‐effectiveness of emission reductions. Bioenergy production from forest biomass can reduce forest carbon stocks, an immediate emissions source that contributes to atmospheric greenhouse gases. Forest carbon impacts thereby lessen emission reductions in the near‐term relative to the assumption of biomass ‘carbon neutrality’, resulting in higher costs of emission reductions when emissions timing is considered. In contrast, conventional cost‐effectiveness approaches implicitly evaluate strategies over an infinite analytical time horizon, underestimating nearer term emissions reduction costs and failing to identify pathways that can most efficiently contribute to climate change mitigation objectives over shorter time spans (e.g. up to 100 years). While providing only a simple representation of the climate change implications of emissions timing, the Present Cost‐Effectiveness method provides a straightforward approach to assessing the cost‐effectiveness of emission reductions associated with any climate change mitigation strategy where future GHG reductions require significant initial capital investment or increase near‐term emissions. Timing is a critical factor in determining the attractiveness of any investment; accounting for emissions timing can better inform decisions related to the merit of alternative resource uses to meet near‐, mid‐, and long‐term climate change mitigation objectives.     

The greenhouse gas abatement potential of productivity improving measures applied to cattle systems in a developing region

Developing countries are experiencing an increase in total demand for livestock commodities, as populations and per capita demands increase. Increased production is therefore required to meet this demand and maintain food security. Production increases will lead to proportionate increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions unless offset by reductions in the emissions intensity (Ei) (i.e. the amount of GHG emitted per kg of commodity produced) of livestock production. It is therefore important to identify measures that can increase production whilst reducing Ei cost-effectively. This paper seeks to do this for smallholder agro-pastoral cattle systems in Senegal; ranging from low input to semi-intensified, they are representative of a large proportion of the national cattle production. Specifically, it identifies a shortlist of mitigation measures with potential for application to the various herd systems and estimates their GHG emissions abatement potential (using the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model) and cost-effectiveness. Limitations and future requirements are identified and discussed. This paper demonstrates that the Ei of meat and milk from livestock systems in a developing region can be reduced through measures that would also benefit food security, many of which are likely to be cost-beneficial. The ability to make such quantification can assist future sustainable development efforts.