首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
What is the future for livestock agriculture in the world? Consumers have concerns about sustainability but many widely used livestock production methods do not satisfy consumers'' requirements for a sustainable system. However, production can be sustainable, occurring in environments that: supply the needs of the animals resulting in good welfare, allow coexistence with a wide diversity of organisms native to the area, minimize carbon footprint and provide a fair lifestyle for the people working there. Conservation need not just involve tiny islands of natural vegetation in a barren world of agriculture, as there can be great increases in biodiversity in farmed areas. Herbivores, especially ruminants that consume materials inedible by humans, are important for human food in the future. However, their diet should not be just ground-level plants. Silvopastoral systems, pastures with shrubs and trees as well as herbage, are described which are normally more productive than pasture alone. When compared with widely used livestock production systems, silvopastoral systems can provide efficient feed conversion, higher biodiversity, enhanced connectivity between habitat patches and better animal welfare, so they can replace existing systems in many parts of the world and should be further developed.  相似文献   

2.
There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.  相似文献   

3.
    
The overall assessment of animal welfare is a multicriterion evaluation problem that needs a constructive strategy to compound information produced by many measures. The construction depends on specific features such as the concept of welfare, the measures used and the way data are collected. Welfare is multidimensional and one dimension probably cannot fully compensate for another one (e.g. good health cannot fully compensate for behavioural deprivation). Welfare measures may vary in precision, relevance and their relative contribution to an overall welfare assessment. The data collected are often expressed on ordinal scales, which limits the use of weighted sums to aggregate them. A sequential aggregation is proposed in the Welfare Quality® project, first from measures to welfare criteria (corresponding to dimensions with pre-set objectives) and then to an overall welfare assessment, using rules determined at each level depending on the nature and number of variables to be considered and the level of compensation to be permitted. Scientific evidence and expert opinion are used to refine the model, and stakeholders’ approval of general principles is sought. This approach could potentially be extended to other problems in agriculture such as the overall assessment of the sustainability of production systems.  相似文献   

4.
    
Several systems have been proposed for the overall assessment of animal welfare at the farm level for the purpose of advising farmers or assisting public decision-making. They are generally based on several measures compounded into a single evaluation, using different rules to assemble the information. Here we discuss the different methods used to aggregate welfare measures and their applicability to certification schemes involving welfare. Data obtained on a farm can be (i) analysed by an expert who draws an overall conclusion; (ii) compared with minimal requirements set for each measure; (iii) converted into ranks, which are then summed; or (iv) converted into values or scores compounded in a weighted sum (e.g. TGI35L) or using ad hoc rules. Existing methods used at present (at least when used exclusively) may be insufficiently sensitive or not routinely applicable, or may not reflect the multidimensional nature of welfare and the relative importance of various welfare measures. It is concluded that different methods may be used at different stages of the construction of an overall assessment of animal welfare, depending on the constraints imposed on the aggregation process.  相似文献   

5.
Climate change: the science and the policy   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：4  
  相似文献   

6.
    
Assessing unconsciousness is important to safeguard animal welfare shortly after stunning at the slaughter plant. Indicators that can be visually evaluated are most often used when assessing unconsciousness, as they can be easily applied in slaughter plants. These indicators include reflexes originating from the brain stem (e.g. eye reflexes) or from the spinal cord (e.g. pedal reflex) and behavioural indicators such as loss of posture, vocalisations and rhythmic breathing. When physically stunning an animal, for example, captive bolt, most important indicators looked at are posture, righting reflex, rhythmic breathing and the corneal or palpebral reflex that should all be absent if the animal is unconscious. Spinal reflexes are difficult as a measure of unconsciousness with this type of stunning, as they may occur more vigorous. For stunning methods that do not physically destroy the brain, for example, electrical and gas stunning, most important indicators looked at are posture, righting reflex, natural blinking response, rhythmic breathing, vocalisations and focused eye movement that should all be absent if the animal is unconscious. Brain stem reflexes such as the cornea reflex are difficult as measures of unconsciousness in electrically stunned animals, as they may reflect residual brain stem activity and not necessarily consciousness. Under commercial conditions, none of the indicators mentioned above should be used as a single indicator to determine unconsciousness after stunning. Multiple indicators should be used to determine unconsciousness and sufficient time should be left for the animal to die following exsanguination before starting invasive dressing procedures such as scalding or skinning. The recording and subsequent assessment of brain activity, as presented in an electroencephalogram (EEG), is considered the most objective way to assess unconsciousness compared with reflexes and behavioural indicators, but is only applied in experimental set-ups. Studies performed in an experimental set-up have often looked at either the EEG or reflexes and behavioural indicators and there is a scarcity of studies that correlate these different readout parameters. It is recommended to study these correlations in more detail to investigate the validity of reflexes and behavioural indicators and to accurately determine the point in time at which the animal loses consciousness.  相似文献   

7.
    
The opinions of seven respondent groups about the relative importance of different practices pertaining to the welfare of Australian beef cattle, sheep and goats were surveyed. Respondent groups comprised farmers, livestock transportation representatives, veterinarians, meat processors, animal welfare advocates, animal welfare scientists and government officers. The survey consisted of a web-based adaptive conjoint analysis questionnaire, which was administered to a sample population that was selected randomly for large respondent groups and comprehensively for small groups. The hierarchy of opinion concerning the importance of the different beef cattle practices was: stockmanship > ground (road and rail) transport > spaying > food supply > dehorning > stunning > shelter > identification > pretransport food and water deprivation > castration > sea transport > mustering > confinement. For sheep/goat practices the hierarchy was: parasite control > mulesing > shelter > stockmanship > tail docking > ground transport > feeding > predation > stunning > castration > pretransport food and water deprivation > sea transport > mustering. The method of performing invasive procedures was perceived as less important than the provision of pain relief. Differences in opinion were evident between respondent groups, with animal welfare advocates tending to focus on painful procedures more than those with direct involvement in the industry.  相似文献   

8.
  总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Livestock contribute directly (i.e. as methane and nitrous oxide (N2O)) to about 9% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and around 3% of UK emissions. If all parts of the livestock production lifecycle are included (fossil fuels used to produce mineral fertilizers used in feed production and N2O emissions from fertilizer use; methane release from the breakdown of fertilizers and from animal manure; land-use changes for feed production and for grazing; land degradation; fossil fuel use during feed and animal production; fossil fuel use in production and transport of processed and refrigerated animal products), livestock are estimated to account for 18% of global anthropogenic emissions, but less than 8% in the UK. In terms of GHG emissions per unit of livestock product, monogastric livestock are more efficient than ruminants; thus in the UK, while sheep and cattle accounted for 32% of meat production in 2006, they accounted for 48% of GHG emissions associated with meat production. More efficient management of grazing lands and of manure can have a direct impact in decreasing emissions. Improving efficiency of livestock production through better breeding, health interventions or improving fertility can also decrease GHG emissions through decreasing the number of livestock required per unit product. Increasing the energy density of the diet has a dual effect, decreasing both direct emissions and the numbers of livestock per unit product, but, as the demands for food increase in response to increasing human population and a better diet in some developing countries, there is increasing competition for land for food v. energy-dense feed crops. Recalculating efficiencies of energy and protein production on the basis of human-edible food produced per unit of human-edible feed consumed gave higher efficiencies for ruminants than for monogastric animals. The policy community thus have difficult decisions to make in balancing the negative contribution of livestock to the environment against the positive benefit in terms of food security. The animal science community have a responsibility to provide an evidence base which is objective and holistic with respect to these two competing challenges.  相似文献   

9.
    
Manure is a leading source of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ammonia (NH3) emissions, and alternative manure management practices can help society meet climate goals and mitigate air pollution. Recent studies show that biochar-composting can substantially reduce emissions from manure. However, most studies test only one type of biochar applied at a single application rate, leading to high variation in emission reductions between studies. Here, we measured greenhouse gas and NH3 emissions during biochar-composting of dairy manure with biochar applied at 5% or 20%, by mass, and made from walnut shells, almond shells, or almond clippings. We found little difference in emissions between biochar type. However, we found that the 20% application rates increased CH4 emissions and decreased N2O and NH3 emissions, resulting in a net reduction in global warming potential (GWP). We attribute this result to biochar increasing the formation of compost aggregates, which likely acted as anaerobic reactors for methanogenesis and complete denitrification. Biochar may have further fueled CH4 production and N2O consumption by acting as an electron shuttle within aggregates. We recommend lower application rates, as we found that the 5% treatments in our study led to a similar reduction in GWP without increasing CH4 emissions.  相似文献   

10.
    
Heat stress is a global issue constraining pig productivity, and it is likely to intensify under future climate change. Technological advances in earth observation have made tools available that enable identification and mapping livestock species that are at risk of exposure to heat stress due to climate change. Here, we present a methodology to map the current and likely future heat stress risk in pigs using R software by combining the effects of temperature and relative humidity. We applied the method to growing-finishing pigs in Uganda. We mapped monthly heat stress risk and quantified the number of pigs exposed to heat stress using 18 global circulation models and projected impacts in the 2050s. Results show that more than 800 000 pigs in Uganda will be affected by heat stress in the future. The results can feed into evidence-based policy, planning and targeted resource allocation in the livestock sector.  相似文献   

11.
  总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land‐use and energy experts, land‐use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life‐cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end‐use efficiency, improved land carbon‐stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small‐scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100 EJ: high agreement; 100–300 EJ: medium agreement; above 300 EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245 EJ yr?1 to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large‐scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land‐intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.  相似文献   

12.
    
Agriculture is now facing the ‘perfect storm’ of climate change, increasing costs of fertilizer and rising food demands from a larger and wealthier human population. These factors point to a global food deficit unless the efficiency and resilience of crop production is increased. The intensification of agriculture has focused on improving production under optimized conditions, with significant agronomic inputs. Furthermore, the intensive cultivation of a limited number of crops has drastically narrowed the number of plant species humans rely on. A new agricultural paradigm is required, reducing dependence on high inputs and increasing crop diversity, yield stability and environmental resilience. Genomics offers unprecedented opportunities to increase crop yield, quality and stability of production through advanced breeding strategies, enhancing the resilience of major crops to climate variability, and increasing the productivity and range of minor crops to diversify the food supply. Here we review the state of the art of genomic‐assisted breeding for the most important staples that feed the world, and how to use and adapt such genomic tools to accelerate development of both major and minor crops with desired traits that enhance adaptation to, or mitigate the effects of climate change.  相似文献   

13.
    
In order to evaluate the influence of rearing system (free-ranging (FR) v. confinement (C)) on buffalo heifer efficiency to reach age of puberty and on behavioural and immune functions, two experiments were conducted from September 2010 to October 2011. In Experiment I, 32 subjects aged 8 to 9 months at the start of experiment were used. A total of 16 animals (group C) were group housed in an indoor slatted floor pen (4 m2/animal) with an outdoor paddock (4 m2/animal); 16 others grazed on a Mediterranean natural pasture of 40 ha (group FR). Behavioural data were collected and organic matter digestibility, blood metabolites and progesterone were determined. At the end of the experiment, a novel object test and a skin test were conducted, and the avoidance distance (AD) at the manger was measured. Free-ranging animals were able to express natural behaviours such as wallowing and grazing. C animals devoted more time to the novel object than FR animals, whereas AD at manger was lower in group FR than in group C (P<0.01). Cellular immune response was higher in FR heifers than in C animals (P<0.01). FR animals also showed a higher digestibility of organic matter (P<0.01). Heifers from group FR had higher plasma concentrations of non-esterified fatty acids (P<0.001) and lower concentrations of glucose than heifers from group C (P<0.001). C animals showed higher daily weight gains (P<0.01) and weight at the puberty (P<0.05), but there were no differences in terms of age of puberty between the two groups. The intakes of dry matter (DM), CP and energy to reach the age of puberty were similar in both groups. In order to verify whether the results obtained in Experiment I could be replicated in different rearing conditions (reduced pasture availability, different location and altitude), a second experiment was conducted on 26 animals, where only onset of age of puberty and metabolic profile were monitored. In Experiment II, 13 heifers grazed on a natural pasture of 5 ha, other 13 received the same space as indicated for Experiment I. Results from Experiment II generally confirmed those of Experiment I. Only the intakes of DM and energy to reach the age of puberty were higher in group C than in FR (P<0.001). A lower competition with human nutrition, reproductive performances similar to those shown by confined animals and the indications given by immune and behavioural variables, suggest that a free-range-based system may be conveniently used for buffalo heifer farming purposes.  相似文献   

14.
    
Silvopastoral systems can be a good alternative for sustainable livestock production because they can provide ecosystem services and improve animal welfare. Most farm animals live in groups and the social organization and interactions between individuals have an impact on their welfare. Therefore, the objective of this study was to describe and compare the social behaviour of cattle (Bos indicus×Bos taurus) in a silvopastoral system based on a high density of leucaena (Leucaena leucocephala) combined with guinea grass (Megathyrsus maximus), star grass (Cynodon nlemfuensis) and some trees; with a monoculture system with C. nlemfuensis, in the region of Merida, Yucatán. Eight heifers in each system were observed from 0730 to 1530 h each day for 12 consecutive days during the dry season and 12 consecutive days during the rainy season. The animals followed a rotation between three paddocks, remaining 4 days in each paddock. The vegetation was characterized in the paddocks of the silvopastoral system to estimate the average percentage of shade provided. To make a comparison between systems, we used a t test with group dispersion, and Mann–Whitney tests with the frequency of affiliative and agonistic behaviours. We assessed differences in linearity and stability of dominance hierarchies using Landau’s index and Dietz R-test, respectively. The distance of cows with respect to the centroid of the group was shorter, and non-agonistic behaviours were 62% more frequent in the intensive silvopastoral system than in the monoculture one. Heifers in the silvopastoral system had a more linear and non-random dominance hierarchy in both seasons (dry season: h’=0.964; rainy season: h’=0.988), than heifers in the monoculture system (dry season: h’=0.571, rainy season: h’=0.536). The dominance hierarchy in the silvopastoral system was more stable between seasons (R-test=0.779) than in the monoculture system (R-test=0.224). Our results provide the first evidence that heifers in the silvopastoral system maintain more stable social hierarchies and express more sociopositive behaviours, suggesting that animal welfare was enhanced.  相似文献   

15.
    
The spatial extent of marine and terrestrial protected areas (PAs) was among the most intensely debated issues prior to the decision about the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Positive impacts of PAs on habitats, species diversity and abundance are well documented. Yet, biodiversity loss continues unabated despite efforts to protect 17% of land and 10% of the oceans by 2020. This casts doubt on whether extending PAs to 30%, the agreed target in the Kunming-Montreal GBF, will indeed achieve meaningful biodiversity benefits. Critically, the focus on area coverage obscures the importance of PA effectiveness and overlooks concerns about the impact of PAs on other sustainability objectives. We propose a simple means of assessing and visualising the complex relationships between PA area coverage and effectiveness and their effects on biodiversity conservation, nature-based climate mitigation and food production. Our analysis illustrates how achieving a 30% PA global target could be beneficial for biodiversity and climate. It also highlights important caveats: (i) achieving lofty area coverage objectives alone will be of little benefit without concomitant improvements in effectiveness, (ii) trade-offs with food production particularly for high levels of coverage and effectiveness are likely and (iii) important differences in terrestrial and marine systems need to be recognized when setting and implementing PA targets. The CBD's call for a significant increase in PA will need to be accompanied by clear PA effectiveness goals to reduce and revert dangerous anthropogenic impacts on socio-ecological systems and biodiversity.  相似文献   

16.
    
Large‐scale biomass plantations (BPs) are a common factor in climate mitigation scenarios as they promise double benefits: extracting carbon from the atmosphere and providing a renewable energy source. However, their terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potentials depend on important factors such as land availability, efficiency of capturing biomass‐derived carbon and the timing of operation. Land availability is restricted by the demands of future food production depending on yield increases and population growth, by requirements for nature conservation and, with respect to climate mitigation, avoiding unfavourable albedo changes. We integrate these factors in one spatially explicit biogeochemical simulation framework to explore the tCDR opportunity space on land available after these constraints are taken into account, starting either in 2020 or 2050, and lasting until 2100. We find that assumed future needs for nature protection and food production strongly limit tCDR potentials. BPs on abandoned crop and pasture areas (~1,300 Mha in scenarios of either 8.0 billion people and yield gap reductions of 25% until 2020 or 9.5 billion people and yield gap reductions of 50% until 2050) could, theoretically, sequester ~100 GtC in land carbon stocks and biomass harvest by 2100. However, this potential would be ~80% lower if only cropland was available or ~50% lower if albedo decreases were considered as a factor restricting land availability. Converting instead natural forest, shrubland or grassland into BPs could result in much larger tCDR potentials ? but at high environmental costs (e.g. biodiversity loss). The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tCDR.  相似文献   

17.
农业生产是将自然资源不断转化为农产品的过程。简单的说就是将阳光、空气、水和土壤等无机资源转化为可以供人类消费的有机产物。农业生态系统必须对全球气候变化、市场竞争、自然环境的恶化、经济等政策法规和人民的需求等因素做出灵活的应对策略,同时还要保证自然生态系统的稳定性。在发展中国家,有超过20亿的人口每天收入低于2美元,他们收入中绝大部分都用于解决温饱。这些人大部分生活在干旱、半干旱地区,并以农业生产作为生活的主要来源。由于这些地区水资源匮乏、土壤贫瘠,粮食安全问题一直是该地区人类生存的关键。中澳两国都把干旱、半干旱地区的农牧业发展作为研究的重点。两国的专家都致力于恢复和维护干旱半干旱地区脆弱的农业生态系统。气候变化正在使农业生态系统可持续发展面临严峻挑战。因此,迫切需要农学,生态学,环境学,社会经济学等多学科的共同发展和融合解决这一问题。2010年7月20—25日在兰州大学举办了以“气候变化和旱区农业生态系统管理”为主题的“第二届生态系统评估与管理（EAM）国际会议”。国内外众多知名专家参与了此次会议,并共同讨论在全球气候变化背景下如何提高干旱半干旱地区脆弱农业生态系统生产力与可持续性。本次会议的议题是：(1）半干旱地区旱作雨养农业生态系统评估与管理,(2）干旱地区绿洲农业生态系统评估与管理。此次会议由兰州大学和澳大利亚西澳大学联合主办,中国科学院生态环境研究中心协办,由国家教育部和国家外专局联合支持、兰州大学干旱与草地生态教育部重点实验室承担的“旱寒生态学”学科创新引智基地和西澳大学农业研究院、FAO属下的叙利亚国际旱地农业研究中心(ICARDA)联合提供资金支持。会议期间,25位专家就干旱、半干旱地区植物土壤互作关系作了报告。另外还有18位在干旱半干旱地区科研一线工作的青年学者汇报了研究进展,并与专家进行了广泛交流。报告会之后,大会组织专家分别对典型旱区农业进行了考察,分别是兰州大学黄土高原旱地农业生态实验站(榆中)和甘肃武威市民勤绿洲农业生态系统。此次大会遴选出35篇学术论文,以专刊的形式发表于《生态学报》第31卷第9期。会议遴选出的其它英文文章将于2011年在《Plant and Soil》和《Crop and Pasture Science》上发表,敬请期待。我们相信,本专刊的出版将会对气候变化背景下旱区农业生态系统的研究和发展产生重要的推动作用。  相似文献   

18.
    
Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.  相似文献   

19.
农业生产是将自然资源不断转化为农产品的过程.简单的说就是将阳光、空气、水和土壤等无机资源转化为可以供人类消费的有机产物.农业生态系统必须对全球气候变化、市场竞争、自然环境的恶化、经济等政策法规和人民的需求等因素做出灵活的应对策略,同时还要保证自然生态系统的稳定性.在发展中国家,有超过20 亿的人口每天收入低于2 美元,他们收入中绝大部分都用于解决温饱.这些人大部分生活在干旱、半干旱地区,并以农业生产作为生活的主要来源.由于这些地区水资源匮乏、土壤贫瘠,粮食安全问题一直是该地区人类生存的关键.中澳两国都把干旱、半干旱地区的农牧业发展作为研究的重点.两国的专家都致力于恢复和维护干旱半干旱地区脆弱的农业生态系统.气候变化正在使农业生态系统可持续发展面临严峻挑战.因此,迫切需要农学,生态学,环境学,社会经济学等多学科的共同发展和融合解决这一问题.  相似文献   

20.
    
Agriculture has a key role in food production worldwide and it is a major component of the gross domestic product of several countries. Livestock production is essential for the generation of high quality protein foods and the delivery of foods in regions where animal products are the main food source. Environmental impacts of livestock production have been examined for decades, but recently emission of methane from enteric fermentation has been targeted as a substantial greenhouse gas source. The quantification of methane emissions from livestock on a global scale relies on prediction models because measurements require specialized equipment and may be expensive. The predictive ability of current methane emission models remains poor. Moreover, the availability of information on livestock production systems has increased substantially over the years enabling the development of more detailed methane prediction models. In this study, we have developed and evaluated prediction models based on a large database of enteric methane emissions from North American dairy and beef cattle. Most probable models of various complexity levels were identified using a Bayesian model selection procedure and were fitted under a hierarchical setting. Energy intake, dietary fiber and lipid proportions, animal body weight and milk fat proportion were identified as key explanatory variables for predicting emissions. Models here developed substantially outperformed models currently used in national greenhouse gas inventories. Additionally, estimates of repeatability of methane emissions were lower than the ones from the literature and multicollinearity diagnostics suggested that prediction models are stable. In this context, we propose various enteric methane prediction models which require different levels of information availability and can be readily implemented in national greenhouse gas inventories of different complexity levels. The utilization of such models may reduce errors associated with prediction of methane and allow a better examination and representation of policies regulating emissions from cattle.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号