Scaling up target regimens for tuberculosis preventive treatment in Brazil and South Africa: An analysis of costs and cost-effectiveness

BackgroundShorter, safer, and cheaper tuberculosis (TB) preventive treatment (TPT) regimens will enhance uptake and effectiveness. WHO developed target product profiles describing minimum requirements and optimal targets for key attributes of novel TPT regimens. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis addressing the scale-up of regimens meeting these criteria in Brazil, a setting with relatively low transmission and low HIV and rifampicin-resistant TB (RR-TB) prevalence, and South Africa, a setting with higher transmission and higher HIV and RR-TB prevalence.Methods and findingsWe used outputs from a model simulating scale-up of TPT regimens meeting minimal and optimal criteria. We assumed that drug costs for minimal and optimal regimens were identical to 6 months of daily isoniazid (6H). The minimal regimen lasted 3 months, with 70% completion and 80% efficacy; the optimal regimen lasted 1 month, with 90% completion and 100% efficacy. Target groups were people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment and household contacts (HHCs) of identified TB patients. The status quo was 6H at 2019 coverage levels for PLHIV and HHCs. We projected TB cases and deaths, TB-associated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and costs (in 2020 US dollars) associated with TB from a TB services perspective from 2020 to 2035, with 3% annual discounting. We estimated the expected costs and outcomes of scaling up 6H, the minimal TPT regimen, or the optimal TPT regimen to reach all eligible PLHIV and HHCs by 2023, compared to the status quo. Maintaining current 6H coverage in Brazil (0% of HHCs and 30% of PLHIV treated) would be associated with 1.1 (95% uncertainty range [UR] 1.1–1.2) million TB cases, 123,000 (115,000–132,000) deaths, and 2.5 (2.1–3.1) million DALYs and would cost $1.1 ($1.0–$1.3) billion during 2020–2035. Expanding the 6H, minimal, or optimal regimen to 100% coverage among eligible groups would reduce DALYs by 0.5% (95% UR 1.2% reduction, 0.4% increase), 2.5% (1.8%–3.0%), and 9.0% (6.5%–11.0%), respectively, with additional costs of $107 ($95–$117) million and $51 ($41–$60) million and savings of $36 ($14–$58) million, respectively. Compared to the status quo, costs per DALY averted were $7,608 and $808 for scaling up the 6H and minimal regimens, respectively, while the optimal regimen was dominant (cost savings, reduced DALYs). In South Africa, maintaining current 6H coverage (0% of HHCs and 69% of PLHIV treated) would be associated with 3.6 (95% UR 3.0–4.3) million TB cases, 843,000 (598,000–1,201,000) deaths, and 36.7 (19.5–58.0) million DALYs and would cost $2.5 ($1.8–$3.6) billion. Expanding coverage with the 6H, minimal, or optimal regimen would reduce DALYs by 6.9% (95% UR 4.3%–95%), 15.5% (11.8%–18.9%), and 38.0% (32.7%–43.0%), respectively, with additional costs of $79 (−$7, $151) million and $40 (−$52, $140) million and savings of $608 ($443–$832) million, respectively. Compared to the status quo, estimated costs per DALY averted were $31 and $7 for scaling up the 6H and minimal regimens, while the optimal regimen was dominant. Study limitations included the focus on 2 countries, and no explicit consideration of costs incurred before the decision to prescribe TPT.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that scale-up of TPT regimens meeting minimum or optimal requirements would likely have important impacts on TB-associated outcomes and would likely be cost-effective or cost saving.

Placide Nsengiyumva and colleagues analyze costs and cost-effectiveness of scaling up target regimens for Tuberculosis Preventive Treatment among persons living with HIV and household contacts of TB patients in Brazil and South Africa.     

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study

BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5–17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may, however, outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling.Methods and findingsUsing a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0–5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under 2 scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and 2 scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and World Health Organization [WHO] Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains from prioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels—assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%—we estimate that 4.3 million malaria cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.8–6.8 million) and 22,000 deaths (95% CrI 11,000–35,000) in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million cases (95% CrI 2.0–4.7 million) and 14,000 deaths (95% CrI 7,000–23,000) at a dose constraint of 20 million, and increases to 6.6 million cases (95% CrI 4.2–10.8 million) and 38,000 deaths (95% CrI 18,000–61,000) at a dose constraint of 60 million. At 100% vaccine coverage, these impact estimates increase to 5.2 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 27,000 deaths (95% CrI 14,000–43,000), 3.9 million cases (95% CrI 2.7–6.0 million) and 19,000 deaths (95% CrI 10,000–30,000), and 10.0 million cases (95% CrI 6.7–15.7 million) and 51,000 deaths (95% CrI 25,000–82,000), respectively. Under realistic vaccine coverage, if the vaccine is prioritised sub-nationally, 5.3 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 24,000 deaths (95% CrI 12,000–38,000) could be averted at a dose constraint of 30 million. Furthermore, sub-national prioritisation would allow introduction in almost double the number of countries compared to national prioritisation (21 versus 11). If vaccine introduction is prioritised in the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi), health impact would be reduced, but this effect becomes less substantial (change of <5%) if 50 million or more doses are available. We did not account for within-country variation in vaccine coverage, and the optimisation was based on a single outcome measure, therefore this study should be used to understand overall trends rather than guide country-specific allocation.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the impact of constraints in vaccine supply on the public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be reduced by introducing the vaccine at the sub-national level and prioritising countries with the highest malaria incidence.

Alexandra Hogan and colleagues explore strategies to optimize vaccine allocation for maximum public health benefit in the face of potential supply constraints.     

Integrating Community-Based Interventions to Reverse the Convergent TB/HIV Epidemics in Rural South Africa

The WHO recommends integrating interventions to address the devastating TB/HIV co-epidemics in South Africa, yet integration has been poorly implemented and TB/HIV control efforts need strengthening. Identifying infected individuals is particularly difficult in rural settings. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of community-based, integrated TB/HIV case finding and additional control strategies on South Africa’s TB/HIV epidemics. We developed a model incorporating TB and HIV transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of integrating TB and HIV interventions in rural South Africa over 10 years. We modeled the impact of a novel screening program that integrates case finding for TB and HIV in the community, comparing it to status quo and recommended TB/HIV control strategies, including GeneXpert, MDR-TB treatment decentralization, improved first-line TB treatment cure rate, isoniazid preventive therapy, and expanded ART. Combining recommended interventions averted 27% of expected TB cases (95% CI 18–40%) 18% HIV (95% CI 13–24%), 60% MDR-TB (95% CI 34–83%), 69% XDR-TB (95% CI 34–90%), and 16% TB/HIV deaths (95% CI 12–29). Supplementing these interventions with annual community-based TB/HIV case finding averted a further 17% of TB cases (44% total; 95% CI 31–56%), 5% HIV (23% total; 95% CI 17–29%), 8% MDR-TB (68% total; 95% CI 40–88%), 4% XDR-TB (73% total; 95% CI 38–91%), and 8% TB/HIV deaths (24% total; 95% CI 16–39%). In addition to increasing screening frequency, we found that improving TB symptom questionnaire sensitivity, second-line TB treatment delays, default before initiating TB treatment or ART, and second-line TB drug efficacy were significantly associated with even greater reductions in TB and HIV cases. TB/HIV epidemics in South Africa were most effectively curtailed by simultaneously implementing interventions that integrated community-based TB/HIV control strategies and targeted drug-resistant TB. Strengthening existing TB and HIV treatment programs is needed to further reduce disease incidence.     

Population-Level Impact of Same-Day Microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF for Tuberculosis Diagnosis in Africa

Objective

To compare the population-level impact of two World Health Organization-endorsed strategies for improving the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB): same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF (Cepheid, USA).

Methods

We created a compartmental transmission model of TB in a representative African community, fit to the regional incidence and mortality of TB and HIV. We compared the population-level reduction in TB burden over ten years achievable with implementation over two years of same-day microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF testing, and the combination of both approaches.

Findings

Same-day microscopy averted an estimated 11.0% of TB incidence over ten years (95% uncertainty range, UR: 3.3%–22.5%), and prevented 11.8% of all TB deaths (95% UR: 7.7%–27.1%). Scaling up Xpert MTB/RIF to all centralized laboratories to achieve 75% population coverage had similar impact on incidence (9.3% reduction, 95% UR: 1.9%–21.5%) and greater effect on mortality (23.8% reduction, 95% UR: 8.6%–33.4%). Combining the two strategies (i.e., same-day microscopy plus Xpert MTB/RIF) generated synergistic effects: an 18.7% reduction in incidence (95% UR: 5.6%–39.2%) and 33.1% reduction in TB mortality (95% UR: 18.1%–50.2%). By the end of year ten, combining same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF could reduce annual TB mortality by 44% relative to the current standard of care.

Conclusion

Scaling up novel diagnostic tests for TB and optimizing existing ones are complementary strategies that, when combined, may have substantial impact on TB epidemics in Africa.     

Impact on Clinical and Cost Outcomes of a Centralized Approach to Acute Stroke Care in London: A Comparative Effectiveness Before and After Model

Background

In July 2010 a new multiple hub-and-spoke model for acute stroke care was implemented across the whole of London, UK, with continuous specialist care during the first 72 hours provided at 8 hyper-acute stroke units (HASUs) compared to the previous model of 30 local hospitals receiving acute stroke patients. We investigated differences in clinical outcomes and costs between the new and old models.

Methods

We compared outcomes and costs ‘before’ (July 2007–July 2008) vs. ‘after’ (July 2010–June 2011) the introduction of the new model, adjusted for patient characteristics and national time trends in mortality and length of stay. We constructed 90-day and 10-year decision analytic models using data from population based stroke registers, audits and published sources. Mortality and length of stay were modelled using survival analysis.

Findings

In a pooled sample of 307 patients ‘before’ and 3156 patients ‘after’, survival improved in the ‘after’ period (age adjusted hazard ratio 0.54; 95% CI 0.41–0.72). The predicted survival rates at 90 days in the deterministic model adjusted for national trends were 87.2% ‘before’ % (95% CI 86.7%–87.7%) and 88.7% ‘after’ (95% CI 88.6%–88.8%); a relative reduction in deaths of 12% (95% CI 8%–16%). Based on a cohort of 6,438 stroke patients, the model produces a total cost saving of £5.2 million per year at 90 days (95% CI £4.9-£5.5 million; £811 per patient).

Conclusion

A centralized model for acute stroke care across an entire metropolitan city appears to have reduced mortality for a reduced cost per patient, predominately as a result of reduced hospital length of stay.     

A Description of Mortality Associated with IPT plus ART Compared to ART Alone among HIV-Infected Individuals in Addis Ababa,Ethiopia: A Cohort Study

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is the most common human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) associated opportunistic infection. It is the leading cause of death in HIV-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) are the two useful TB preventative strategies available to reduce TB among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare mortality associated with IPT taken together with ART, as well as ART alone, among PLHIV.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was undertaken at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH) and Zewditu Memorial Hospital (ZMH) on 185 patients receiving IPT (6 months) plus ART and 557 patients receiving ART alone. Mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years (PYs) were used to compare mortality rates amongst the groups. Time-to-death and survival probabilities of the patients were determined using the Kaplan Meier Method. The Cox Proportional Hazard Model was employed to estimate the effect of IPT plus ART on survival of PLHIV.

Results

The mortality cases noted in patients treated by IPT plus ART versus ART alone were 18 (4.5 cases/100 PYs) and 116 (10 cases/100 PYs), respectively. In reference to the ART alone, the IPT plus ART reduced the likelihood of death significantly (aHR 0.48; 95% CI 0.38–0.69) and median time to death was about 26 months (IQR 19–34). Moreover, WHO stage IV (aHR 2.42: 95% CI 1.42–4.11), CD4 values ≥350cells/mm3 (aHR 0.52; 95% CI 0.28–0.94), adherence to ART (aHR 0.12; 95% CI 0.08–0.20), primary levels of education (aHR 2.20; 95% CI 1.07–4.52); and alcohol consumption (aHR 1.71; 95% CI 1.04–2.81) were factors strongly associated with mortality.

Conclusion

We found that PLHIV treated by the IPT plus ART had a lower likelihood of mortality and delayed time-to-death when compared to patients treated by ART alone.     

Catching the Missing Million: Experiences in Enhancing TB & DR-TB Detection by Providing Upfront Xpert MTB/RIF Testing for People Living with HIV in India

BackgroundA critical challenge in providing TB care to People Living with HIV (PLHIV) is establishing an accurate bacteriological diagnosis. Xpert MTB/RIF, a highly sensitive and specific rapid tool, offers a promising solution in addressing these challenges. This study presents results from PLHIV taking part in a large demonstration study across India wherein upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing was offered to all presumptive PTB cases in public health facilities.MethodThe study covered a population of 8.8 million across 18 sub-district level tuberculosis units (TU), with one Xpert MTB/RIF platform established at each TU. All HIV-infected patients suspected of TB (both TB and Drug Resistant TB (DR-TB)) accessing public health facilities in study area were prospectively enrolled and provided upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing.Result2,787 HIV-infected presumptive pulmonary TB cases were enrolled and 867 (31.1%, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 29.4‒32.8) HIV-infected TB cases were diagnosed under the study. Overall 27.6% (CI 25.9–29.3) of HIV-infected presumptive PTB cases were positive by Xpert MTB/RIF, compared with 12.9% (CI 11.6–14.1) who had positive sputum smears. Upfront Xpert MTB/RIF testing of presumptive PTB and DR-TB cases resulted in diagnosis of 73 (9.5%, CI 7.6‒11.8) and 16 (11.2%, CI 6.7‒17.1) rifampicin resistance cases, respectively. Positive predictive value (PPV) for rifampicin resistance detection was high 97.7% (CI 89.3‒99.8), with no significant difference with or without prior history of TB treatment.ConclusionThe study results strongly demonstrate limitations of using smear microscopy for TB diagnosis in PLHIV, leading to low TB and DR-TB detection which can potentially lead to either delayed or sub-optimal TB treatment. Our findings demonstrate the usefulness and feasibility of addressing this diagnostic gap with upfront of Xpert MTB/RIF testing, leading to overall strengthening of care and support package for PLHIV.     

A Clinical Algorithm to Identify HIV Patients at High Risk for Incident Active Tuberculosis: A Prospective 5-Year Cohort Study

Background

Predicting the risk of tuberculosis (TB) in people living with HIV (PLHIV) using a single test is currently not possible. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical algorithm, using baseline CD4 cell counts, HIV viral load (pVL), and interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA), to identify PLHIV who are at high risk for incident active TB in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is routinely provided.

Materials and Methods

A prospective, 5-year, cohort study of adult PLHIV was conducted from 2006 to 2012 in two hospitals in Taiwan. HAART was initiated based on contemporary guidelines (CD4 count < = 350/μL). Cox regression was used to identify the predictors of active TB and to construct the algorithm. The validation cohorts included 1455 HIV-infected individuals from previous published studies. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated.

Results

Seventeen of 772 participants developed active TB during a median follow-up period of 5.21 years. Baseline CD4 < 350/μL or pVL ≥ 100,000/mL was a predictor of active TB (adjusted HR 4.87, 95% CI 1.49–15.90, P = 0.009). A positive baseline IGRA predicted TB in patients with baseline CD4 ≥ 350/μL and pVL < 100,000/mL (adjusted HR 6.09, 95% CI 1.52–24.40, P = 0.01). Compared with an IGRA-alone strategy, the algorithm improved the sensitivity from 37.5% to 76.5%, the negative predictive value from 98.5% to 99.2%. Compared with an untargeted strategy, the algorithm spared 468 (60.6%) from unnecessary TB preventive treatment. Area under the ROC curve was 0.692 (95% CI: 0.587–0.798) for the study cohort and 0.792 (95% CI: 0.776–0.808) and 0.766 in the 2 validation cohorts.

Conclusions

A validated algorithm incorporating the baseline CD4 cell count, HIV viral load, and IGRA status can be used to guide targeted TB preventive treatment in PLHIV in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where HAART is routinely provided to all PLHIV. The implementation of this algorithm will avoid unnecessary exposure of low-risk patients to drug toxicity and simultaneously, reduce the burden of universal treatment on the healthcare system.     

Association of chemotactic chemokine ligand 5 rs2107538 polymorphism with tuberculosis susceptibility: A meta-analysis

A meta-analysis was carried out in this study by summarizing relevant research to evaluate the relationship between rs2107538 polymorphism in the chemotactic chemokine ligand 5 (CCL5) gene and tuberculosis (TB) susceptibility. Published studies were retrieved from PubMed, Embase, and CNKI databases using the keywords ‘CCL5’, ‘TB’, and ‘polymorphism’. Nine studies involving 2584 patients with TB and 2265 controls were included in the current meta-analysis. The combined results suggested that the CCL5 rs2107538 polymorphism was correlated with TB susceptibility (recessive model: OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.02–2.07). Subgroup analysis according to race indicated that such correlation could be detected in Caucasians (CT versus CC: OR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.20–1.95; dominant model: OR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.25–1.99), but not in East Asian, South Asian, and South African populations. In conclusion, the results of our meta-analysis suggest that CCL5 rs2107538 polymorphism might contribute to the risk of TB, especially in Caucasians. Well-designed studies with more subjects will be required for further validation of these results.     

High Levels of Heterogeneity in the HIV Cascade of Care across Different Population Subgroups in British Columbia,Canada

Background

The HIV cascade of care (cascade) is a comprehensive tool which identifies attrition along the HIV care continuum. We executed analyses to explicate heterogeneity in the cascade across key strata, as well as identify predictors of attrition across stages of the cascade.

Methods

Using linked individual-level data for the population of HIV-positive individuals in BC, we considered the 2011 calendar year, including individuals diagnosed at least 6 months prior, and excluding individuals that died or were lost to follow-up before January 1^st, 2011. We defined five stages in the cascade framework: HIV ‘diagnosed’, ‘linked’ to care, ‘retained’ in care, ‘on HAART’ and virologically ‘suppressed’. We stratified the cascade by sex, age, risk category, and regional health authority. Finally, multiple logistic regression models were built to predict attrition across each stage of the cascade, adjusting for stratification variables.

Results

We identified 7621 HIV diagnosed individuals during the study period; 80% were male and 5% were <30, 17% 30–39, 37% 40–49 and 40% were ≥50 years. Of these, 32% were MSM, 28% IDU, 8% MSM/IDU, 12% heterosexual, and 20% other. Overall, 85% of individuals ‘on HAART’ were ‘suppressed’; however, this proportion ranged from 60%–93% in our various stratifications. Most individuals, in all subgroups, were lost between the stages: ‘linked’ to ‘retained’ and ‘on HAART’ to ‘suppressed’. Subgroups with the highest attrition between these stages included females and individuals <30 years (regardless of transmission risk group). IDUs experienced the greatest attrition of all subgroups. Logistic regression results found extensive statistically significant heterogeneity in attrition across the cascade between subgroups and regional health authorities.

Conclusions

We found that extensive heterogeneity in attrition existed across subgroups and regional health authorities along the HIV cascade of care in B.C., Canada. Our results provide critical information to optimize engagement in care and health service delivery.     

Diagnostic accuracy of cervical cancer screening and screening–triage strategies among women living with HIV-1 in Burkina Faso and South Africa: A cohort study

BackgroundCervical cancer screening strategies using visual inspection or cytology may have suboptimal diagnostic accuracy for detection of precancer in women living with HIV (WLHIV). The optimal screen and screen–triage strategy, age to initiate, and frequency of screening for WLHIV remain unclear. This study evaluated the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of different cervical cancer strategies in WLHIV in Africa.Methods and findingsWLHIV aged 25–50 years attending HIV treatment centres in Burkina Faso (BF) and South Africa (SA) from 5 December 2011 to 30 October 2012 were enrolled in a prospective evaluation study of visual inspection using acetic acid (VIA) or visual inspection using Lugol’s iodine (VILI), high-risk human papillomavirus DNA test (Hybrid Capture 2 [HC2] or careHPV), and cytology for histology-verified high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+/CIN3+) at baseline and endline, a median 16 months later. Among 1,238 women (BF: 615; SA: 623), median age was 36 and 34 years (p < 0.001), 28.6% and 49.6% ever had prior cervical cancer screening (p < 0.001), and 69.9% and 64.2% were taking ART at enrolment (p = 0.045) in BF and SA, respectively. CIN2+ prevalence was 5.8% and 22.4% in BF and SA (p < 0.001), respectively. VIA had low sensitivity for CIN2+ (44.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 36.9%–52.7%) and CIN3+ (56.1%, 95% CI 43.3%–68.3%) in both countries, with specificity for ≤CIN1 of 78.7% (95% CI 76.0%–81.3%). HC2 had sensitivity of 88.8% (95% CI 82.9%–93.2%) for CIN2+ and 86.4% (95% CI 75.7%–93.6%) for CIN3+. Specificity for ≤CIN1 was 55.4% (95% CI 52.2%–58.6%), and screen positivity was 51.3%. Specificity was higher with a restricted genotype (HPV16/18/31/33/35/45/52/58) approach (73.5%, 95% CI 70.6%–76.2%), with lower screen positivity (33.7%), although there was lower sensitivity for CIN3+ (77.3%, 95% CI 65.3%–86.7%). In BF, HC2 was more sensitive for CIN2+/CIN3+ compared to VIA/VILI (relative sensitivity for CIN2+ = 1.72, 95% CI 1.28–2.32; CIN3+: 1.18, 95% CI 0.94–1.49). Triage of HC2-positive women with VIA/VILI reduced the number of colposcopy referrals, but with loss in sensitivity for CIN2+ (58.1%) but not for CIN3+ (84.6%). In SA, cytology high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or greater (HSIL+) had best combination of sensitivity (CIN2+: 70.1%, 95% CI 61.3%–77.9%; CIN3+: 80.8%, 95% CI 67.5%–90.4%) and specificity (81.6%, 95% CI 77.6%–85.1%). HC2 had similar sensitivity for CIN3+ (83.0%, 95% CI 70.2%–91.9%) but lower specificity compared to HSIL+ (42.7%, 95% CI 38.4%–47.1%; relative specificity = 0.57, 95% CI 0.52–0.63), resulting in almost twice as many referrals. Compared to HC2, triage of HC2-positive women with HSIL+ resulted in a 40% reduction in colposcopy referrals but was associated with some loss in sensitivity. CIN2+ incidence over a median 16 months was highest among VIA baseline screen-negative women (2.2%, 95% CI 1.3%–3.7%) and women who were baseline double-negative with HC2 and VIA (2.1%, 95% CI 1.3%–3.5%) and lowest among HC2 baseline screen-negative women (0.5%, 95% CI 0.1%–1.8%). Limitations of our study are that WLHIV included in the study may not reflect a contemporary cohort of WLHIV initiating ART in the universal ART era and that we did not evaluate HPV tests available in study settings today.ConclusionsIn this cohort study among WLHIV in Africa, a human papillomavirus (HPV) test targeting 14 high-risk (HR) types had higher sensitivity to detect CIN2+ compared to visual inspection but had low specificity, although a restricted genotype approach targeting 8 HR types decreased the number of unnecessary colposcopy referrals. Cytology HSIL+ had optimal performance for CIN2+/CIN3+ detection in SA. Triage of HPV-positive women with HSIL+ maintained high specificity but with some loss in sensitivity compared to HC2 alone.

In this cohort study, Helen Kelly and colleagues explore cervical cancer screening strategies for women living with HIV.     

Place and Cause of Death in Centenarians: A Population-Based Observational Study in England, 2001 to 2010

Background

Centenarians are a rapidly growing demographic group worldwide, yet their health and social care needs are seldom considered. This study aims to examine trends in place of death and associations for centenarians in England over 10 years to consider policy implications of extreme longevity.

Methods and Findings

This is a population-based observational study using death registration data linked with area-level indices of multiple deprivations for people aged ≥100 years who died 2001 to 2010 in England, compared with those dying at ages 80-99. We used linear regression to examine the time trends in number of deaths and place of death, and Poisson regression to evaluate factors associated with centenarians’ place of death. The cohort totalled 35,867 people with a median age at death of 101 years (range: 100–115 years). Centenarian deaths increased 56% (95% CI 53.8%–57.4%) in 10 years. Most died in a care home with (26.7%, 95% CI 26.3%–27.2%) or without nursing (34.5%, 95% CI 34.0%–35.0%) or in hospital (27.2%, 95% CI 26.7%–27.6%). The proportion of deaths in nursing homes decreased over 10 years (−0.36% annually, 95% CI −0.63% to −0.09%, p = 0.014), while hospital deaths changed little (0.25% annually, 95% CI −0.06% to 0.57%, p = 0.09). Dying with frailty was common with “old age” stated in 75.6% of death certifications. Centenarians were more likely to die of pneumonia (e.g., 17.7% [95% CI 17.3%–18.1%] versus 6.0% [5.9%–6.0%] for those aged 80–84 years) and old age/frailty (28.1% [27.6%–28.5%] versus 0.9% [0.9%–0.9%] for those aged 80–84 years) and less likely to die of cancer (4.4% [4.2%–4.6%] versus 24.5% [24.6%–25.4%] for those aged 80–84 years) and ischemic heart disease (8.6% [8.3%–8.9%] versus 19.0% [18.9%–19.0%] for those aged 80–84 years) than were younger elderly patients. More care home beds available per 1,000 population were associated with fewer deaths in hospital (PR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98–0.99, p<0.001).

Conclusions

Centenarians are more likely to have causes of death certified as pneumonia and frailty and less likely to have causes of death of cancer or ischemic heart disease, compared with younger elderly patients. To reduce reliance on hospital care at the end of life requires recognition of centenarians’ increased likelihood to “acute” decline, notably from pneumonia, and wider provision of anticipatory care to enable people to remain in their usual residence, and increasing care home bed capacity. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Beneficial Effect of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy and Antiretroviral Therapy on the Incidence of Tuberculosis in People Living with HIV in Ethiopia

Background

IPT with or without concomitant administration of ART is a proven intervention to prevent tuberculosis among PLHIV. However, there are few data on the routine implementation of this intervention and its effectiveness in settings with limited resources.

Objectives

To measure the level of uptake and effectiveness of IPT in reducing tuberculosis incidence in a cohort of PLHIV enrolled into HIV care between 2007 and 2010 in five hospitals in southern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cohort analysis of electronic patient database was done. The independent effects of no intervention, “IPT-only,” “IPT-before-ART,” “IPT-and-ART started simultaneously,” “ART-only,” and “IPT-after-ART” on TB incidence were measured. Cox-proportional hazards regression was used to assess association of treatment categories with TB incidence.

Results

Of 7,097 patients, 867 were excluded because they were transferred-in; a further 823 (12%) were excluded from the study because they were either identified to have TB through screening (292 patients) or were on TB treatment (531). Among the remaining 5,407 patients observed, IPT had been initiated for 39% of eligible patients. Children, male sex, advanced disease, and those in Pre-ART were less likely to be initiated on IPT. The overall TB incidence was 2.6 per 100 person-years. As compared to those with no intervention, use of “IPT-only” (aHR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.19–0.66) and “ART-only” (aHR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.24–0.43) were associated with significant reduction in TB incidence rate. Combining ART and IPT had a more profound effect. Starting IPT-before-ART (aHR = 0.18, 95% CI = 0.08–0.42) or simultaneously with ART (aHR = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.10–0.42) provided further reduction of TB at ∼80%.

Conclusions

IPT was found to be effective in reducing TB incidence, independently and with concomitant ART, under programme conditions in resource-limited settings. The level of IPT provision and effectiveness in reducing TB was encouraging in the study setting. Scaling up and strengthening IPT service in addition to ART can have beneficial effect in reducing TB burden among PLHIV in settings with high TB/HIV burden.     

Risk of developing active tuberculosis following tuberculosis screening and preventive therapy for Tibetan refugee children and adolescents in India: An impact assessment

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) rates among Tibetan refugee children and adolescents attending boarding schools in India are extremely high. We undertook a comprehensive case finding and TB preventive treatment (TPT) program in 7 schools in the Zero TB Kids project. We aimed to measure the TB infection and disease burden and investigate the risk of TB disease in children and adults who did and did not receive TPT in the schools.Methods and findingsA mobile team annually screened children and staff for TB at the 7 boarding schools in Himachal Pradesh, India, using symptom criteria, radiography, molecular diagnostics, and tuberculin skin tests. TB infection (TBI) was treated with short-course regimens of isoniazid and rifampin or rifampin. TB disease was treated according to Tibetan and Indian guidelines. Between April 2017 and December 2019, 6,582 schoolchildren (median age 14 [IQR 11–16] years) and 807 staff (median age 40 [IQR 33–48] years) were enrolled. Fifty-one percent of the students and 58% of the staff were females. Over 13,161 person-years of follow-up in schoolchildren (median follow-up 2.3 years) and 1,800 person-years of follow-up in staff (median follow-up 2.5 years), 69 TB episodes occurred in schoolchildren and 4 TB episodes occurred in staff, yielding annual incidence rates of 524/100,000 (95% CI 414–663/100,000) person-years and 256/100,000 (95% CI 96–683/100,000) person-years, respectively. Of 1,412 schoolchildren diagnosed with TBI, 1,192 received TPT. Schoolchildren who received TPT had 79% lower risk of TB disease (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.21; 95% CI 0.07–0.69; p = 0.010) compared to non-recipients, the primary study outcome. Protection was greater in recent contacts (aHR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01–0.42; p = 0.004), the secondary study outcome. The prevalence of recent contacts was 28% (1,843/6,582). Two different TPT regimens were used (3HR and 4R), and both were apparently effective. No staff receiving TPT developed TB. Overall, between 2017 and 2019, TB disease incidence decreased by 87%, from 837/100,000 (95% CI 604–1,129/100,000) person-years to 110/100,000 (95% CI 36–255/100,000) person-years (p < 0.001), and TBI prevalence decreased by 42% from 19% (95% CI 18%–20%) to 11% (95% CI 10%–12%) (p < 0.001). A limitation of our study is that TB incidence could be influenced by secular trends during the study period.ConclusionsIn this study, following implementation of a school-wide TB screening and preventive treatment program, we observed a significant reduction in the burden of TB disease and TBI in children and adolescents. The benefit of TPT was particularly marked for recent TB contacts. This initiative may serve as a model for TB detection and prevention in children and adolescents in other communities affected by TB.

Kunchok Dorjee and colleagues investigate infection and disease burden following mass tuberculosis preventive treatment for Tibetan refugee children at schools in India.     

Glycemic Control and Radiographic Manifestations of Tuberculosis in Diabetic Patients

Background

Radiographic manifestations of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) have previously been reported, with inconsistent results. We conducted a study to investigate whether glycemic control has an impact on radiographic manifestations of pulmonary TB.

Methods

Consecutive patients with culture-positive pulmonary TB who had DM in three tertiary care hospitals from 2005–2010 were selected for review and compared with a similar number without DM. Glycemic control was assessed by glycated haemoglobin A1C (HbA1C). A pre-treatment chest radiograph was read independently by two qualified pulmonologists blinded to patients’ diabetic status. Films with any discordant reading were read by a third reader.

Results

1209 culture positive pulmonary TB patients (581 with DM and 628 without DM) were enrolled. Compared with those without DM, TB patients with DM were significantly more likely to have opacity over lower lung fields, extensive parenchymal lesions, any cavity, multiple cavities and large cavities (>3 cm). The relative risk of lower lung field opacities was 0.80 (95% CI 0.46–1.42) for those with DM with A1C<7%, 2.32 (95% CI 1.36 - 3.98) for A1C 7%–9%, and 1.62 (95% CI 1.12–2.36) for A1C>9%; and that of any cavity over no cavity was 0.87 (95% CI 0.46–1.62) for patients with DM with A1C<7%, 1.84 (95% CI 1.20–2.84) for A1C 7%–9%, and 3.71 (95% CI 2.64–5.22) for A1C>9%, relative to patients without DM.

Conclusions

Glycemic control significantly influenced radiographic manifestations of pulmonary TB in patients with DM.     

Opportunistic Infections among People Living with HIV (PLHIV) with Diabetes Mellitus (DM) Attending a Tertiary Care Hospital in Coastal City of South India

Background

HIV/AIDS and Diabetes Mellitus are the diseases’ known to supress cell mediated immunity and predispose patients for opportunistic infections. Hence, we conducted a study to compare the common opportunistic infections (OIs) between People Living with HIV with DM (PLHIV-DM) and PLHIV without DM (PLHIV).

Methodology

PLHIV with DM and without DM (1:1) were prospectively included in the study from January 2011 to January 2012 at a tertiary care hospital in Mangalore city. Patients were classified as Diabetic if their fasting plasma glucose was ≥ 7.0mmol/l (126mg/dl) or 2–h plasma glucose was ≥11.1mmol/l (200mg/dl). Standard procedures and techniques were followed for diagnosis of OIs as per WHO guidelines. The data was entered and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 11.5.

Findings

The study included 37 PLHIV with DM and 37 PLHIV without DM and both groups were treated with Anti-Retroviral Therapy (ART). The median age was 47 years (IQR: 41-55years) for PLHIV-DM as compared to 40 years (IQR: 35–45.5 years) for PLHIV (p<0.0001). PLHIV-DM had median CD4 counts of 245 (IQR: 148–348) cells/μl compared to 150(IQR: 70–278) cells/μl for PLHIV (p = 0.02). Common OIs included oral candidiasis (49% of PLHIV-DM and 35% of PLHIV); Cryptococcal meningitis (19% of PLHIV-DM and 16% of PLHIV); Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (5% of PLHIV-DM and 18% of PLHIV); extra pulmonary tuberculosis (22% of PLHIV-DM and 34.5% of PLHIV); and Cerebral toxoplasmosis (11% of PLHIV–DM and 13.5% of PLHIV). Microbiological testing of samples from PLHIV- DM, C krusei was the most common Candida species isolated from 9 out of 18 samples. Out of six pulmonary TB samples cultured, four grew Non-tuberculosis mycobacteria (NTM) and two Mycobacterium tuberculosis complexes.

Conclusions

Study did not identify any significant difference in profile of opportunistic infections (OIs) between PLHIV with and without Diabetes.     

Impact of HIV Status on Treatment Outcome of Tuberculosis Patients Registered at Arsi Negele Health Center,Southern Ethiopia: A Six Year Retrospective Study

BackgroundDespite implementation of different strategies, the burden and mortality of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculosis (TB) remains a challenge in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of HIV status on treatment outcome of tuberculosis patients registered at Arsi Negele Health Center, Southern Ethiopia.MethodsA six-year retrospective data (from September 2008 to August 2014) of tuberculosis patients (n = 1649) registered at the directly observed therapy short-course (DOTS) clinic of Arsi Negele Health Center was reviewed. Treatment outcome and tuberculosis type were categorized according to the national tuberculosis control program guideline. Data were entered and analyzed using SPSS version 20. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to examine the effect of HIV status separately on default/failure and death in relation to those who were successfully treated. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were used to check the presence and strength of association between TB treatment outcome and HIV status and other independent variables.ResultsOut of the 1649 TB patients, 94.7% (1562) have been tested for HIV of whom 156(10%) were HIV co-infected. The mean (standard deviation) age of the patients was 28.5(15.5) years. The majority were new TB cases (96.7%), male (53.7%), urban (54.7%), and had smear negative pulmonary TB (44.1%). Overall, the treatment success rate of TB patients with or without HIV was 87.3%. Using cure/completion as reference, patients without known HIV status had significantly higher odds of default /failure [aOR, 4.26; 95%CI, 1.684–10.775] and transfer-out [aOR, 2.92; 95%CI, 1.545–5.521] whereas those who tested positive for HIV had a significantly higher odds of death [aOR, 6.72; 95%CI, 3.704–12.202] and transfer-out [aOR, 2.02; 95%CI, 1.111–3.680].ConclusionOverall, treatment outcome and HIV testing coverage for TB patients is promising to reach the WHO target in the study area. However, default/failure among patients without known HIV status, and higher rate of mortality among HIV positive TB patients and transfer-out cases deserves concern. Therefore further prospective studies on quality of services, socioeconomics and psychology of this group should be conducted.     

Dynamics of sputum conversion during effective tuberculosis treatment: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundTwo weeks’ isolation is widely recommended for people commencing treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). The evidence that this corresponds to clearance of potentially infectious tuberculous mycobacteria in sputum is not well established. This World Health Organization–commissioned review investigated sputum sterilisation dynamics during TB treatment.Methods and findingsFor the main analysis, 2 systematic literature searches of OvidSP MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health, and EBSCO CINAHL Plus were conducted to identify studies with data on TB infectiousness (all studies to search date, 1 December 2017) and all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for drug-susceptible TB (from 1 January 1990 to search date, 20 February 2018). Included articles reported on patients receiving effective treatment for culture-confirmed drug-susceptible pulmonary TB. The outcome of interest was sputum bacteriological conversion: the proportion of patients having converted by a defined time point or a summary measure of time to conversion, assessed by smear or culture. Any study design with 10 or more particpants was considered. Record sifting and data extraction were performed in duplicate. Random effects meta-analyses were performed. A narrative summary additionally describes the results of a systematic search for data evaluating infectiousness from humans to experimental animals (PubMed, all studies to 27 March 2018). Other evidence on duration of infectiousness—including studies reporting on cough dynamics, human tuberculin skin test conversion, or early bactericidal activity of TB treatments—was outside the scope of this review. The literature search was repeated on 22 November 2020, at the request of the editors, to identify studies published after the previous censor date. Four small studies reporting 3 different outcome measures were identified, which included no data that would alter the findings of the review; they are not included in the meta-analyses. Of 5,290 identified records, 44 were included. Twenty-seven (61%) were RCTs and 17 (39%) were cohort studies. Thirteen studies (30%) reported data from Africa, 12 (27%) from Asia, 6 (14%) from South America, 5 (11%) from North America, and 4 (9%) from Europe. Four studies reported data from multiple continents. Summary estimates suggested smear conversion in 9% of patients at 2 weeks (95% CI 3%–24%, 1 single study [N = 1]), and 82% of patients at 2 months of treatment (95% CI 78%–86%, N = 10). Among baseline smear-positive patients, solid culture conversion occurred by 2 weeks in 5% (95% CI 0%–14%, N = 2), increasing to 88% at 2 months (95% CI 84%–92%, N = 20). At equivalent time points, liquid culture conversion was achieved in 3% (95% CI 1%–16%, N = 1) and 59% (95% CI 47%–70%, N = 8). Significant heterogeneity was observed. Further interrogation of the data to explain this heterogeneity was limited by the lack of disaggregation of results, including by factors such as HIV status, baseline smear status, and the presence or absence of lung cavitation.ConclusionsThis systematic review found that most patients remained culture positive at 2 weeks of TB treatment, challenging the view that individuals are not infectious after this interval. Culture positivity is, however, only 1 component of infectiousness, with reduced cough frequency and aerosol generation after TB treatment initiation likely to also be important. Studies that integrate our findings with data on cough dynamics could provide a more complete perspective on potential transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis by individuals on treatment.Trial registrationSystematic review registration: PROSPERO 85226.