Projected progression of the prevalence of obesity in Australia

Several country-specific and global projections of the future obesity prevalence have been conducted. However, these projections are obtained by extrapolating past prevalence of obesity or distributions of body weight. More accurate would be to base estimates on the most recent measures of weight change. Using measures of overweight and obesity incidence from a national, longitudinal study, we estimated the future obesity prevalence in Australian adults. Participants were adults aged ≥25 years in 2000 participating in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study (baseline 2000, follow-up 2005). In this population, approximately one-fifth of those with normal weight or overweight progressed to a higher weight category within 5 years. Between 2000 and 2025, the adult prevalence of normal weight was estimated to decrease from 40.6 to 28.1% and the prevalence of obesity to increase from 20.5 to 33.9%. By the time, those people aged 25-29 in 2000 reach 60-64 years, 22.1% will be normal weight, and 42.4% will be obese. On average, normal-weight females aged 25-29 years in 2000 will live another 56.2 years: 26.6 years with normal weight, 15.6 years with overweight, and 14.0 years with obesity. Normal-weight males aged 25-29 years in 2000 will live another 51.5 years: 21.6 years with normal weight, 21.1 years with overweight, and 8.8 years with obesity. If the rates of weight gain observed in the first 5 years of this decade are maintained, our findings suggest that normal-weight adults will constitute less than a third of the population by 2025, and the obesity prevalence will have increased by 65%.     

Rising Midlife Obesity Will Worsen Future Prevalence of Dementia

Background

Midlife body weight status has been found to affect late life dementia outcomes. A cohort projections model was developed to assess the impact of midlife body mass index (BMI) profile on dementia in older Australians.

Methods

A baseline projection using age-sex specific dementia prevalence rates was constructed and the results of scenarios that took account of midlife BMI were compared with those from population ageing only.

Results

This modelling predicts that if the rising trend in midlife obesity and declining trend in midlife normal weight in Australia are to be taken into account in projecting future numbers of Australians with dementia then the number of people aged 65 or more years with dementia, by 2050, would be 14% higher than that expected from demographic ageing only. If midlife obesity prevalence was decreased to 20% and normal weight increased to 40% over the period of 2015–2025, then dementia cases among persons aged 65–69 years would be lower by about 10% in 2050 compared with the “doing nothing to stop current trends in obesity” projection.

Conclusion

The rising tide of obesity in Australian adults will increase the dementia epidemic expected in future years.     

Global changes in bladder cancer mortality in the elderly

BackgroundBladder cancer is the 14th most common cause of cancer deaths worldwide and has a mean age of diagnosis of 73 years. Elderly people have fewer curative treatment options for muscle invasive bladder cancer. The aim of this study is to investigate how bladder cancer mortality has changed over the past forty years in different world regions to assess discrepancies between elderly and younger patients with bladder cancer.MethodsBladder cancer mortality data were extracted from the World Health Organisation’s GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) for bladder cancer were computed by year, sex, region and Human Development Index (HDI) using the world standard population.ResultsOverall ASMR in all available countries with data between 1986 and 2014 for men aged ≥ 75 has decreased from 101.2 to 89.9 per 100,000 (−11.2%). The decrease in ASMR for men < 75 has been 0.3–2.0 per 100,000 (−39.4%). In women aged ≥ 75 ASMR has decreased from 26.9 to 22.5 per 100,000 (−16.4%) and in women < 75 the ASMR has decreased from 0.76 to 0.56 per 100,000 (−26.4%).Correlation analysis showed a positive linear relationship between Human Development Index (HDI) and improvement in age-standardised mortality rate in all ages. Pearson’s coefficient showed that correlation was strongest in the 60–74 age group (r = −0.61, p < 0.001) and weakest in those aged ≥ 75 (r = −0.39, p = 0.01).ConclusionBladder cancer mortality is not improving in the elderly at the same rate as the rest of the population. Particular focus should be applied in future research to enhance and expand treatment options for bladder cancer that are appropriate for elderly patients.     

Cancer incidence and mortality in people aged less than 75 years: Changes in Australia over the period 1987–2007

BackgroundAustralia has one of the highest rates of cancer incidence worldwide and, despite improving survival, cancer continues to be a major public health problem. Our aim was to provide simple summary measures of changes in cancer mortality and incidence in Australia so that progress and areas for improvement in cancer control can be identified.MethodsWe used national data on cancer deaths and newly registered cancer cases and compared expected and observed numbers of deaths and cases diagnosed in 2007. The expected numbers were obtained by applying 1987 age–sex specific rates (average of 1986–1988) directly to the 2007 population. The observed numbers of deaths and incident cases were calculated for 2007 (average of 2006–2008). We limited the analyses to people aged less than 75 years.ResultsThere was a 28% fall in cancer mortality (7827 fewer deaths in 2007 vs. 1987) and a 21% increase in new cancer diagnoses (13,012 more diagnosed cases in 2007). The greatest reductions in deaths were for cancers of the lung in males (?2259), bowel (?1797), breast (?773) and stomach (?577). Other notable falls were for cancers of the prostate (?295), cervix (?242) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (?240). Only small or no changes occurred in mortality for cancers of the lung (female only), pancreas, brain and related, oesophagus and thyroid, with an increase in liver cancer (267). Cancer types that showed the greatest increase in incident cases were cancers of the prostate (10,245), breast (2736), other cancers (1353), melanoma (1138) and thyroid (1107), while falls were seen for cancers of the lung (?1705), bladder (?1110) and unknown primary (?904).ConclusionsThe reduction in mortality indicates that prevention strategies, improvements in cancer treatment, and screening programmes have made significant contributions to cancer control in Australia since 1987. The rise in incidence is partly due to diagnoses being brought forward by technological improvements and increased coverage of screening and early diagnostic testing.     

Aging, cancer, and cancer vaccines

ABSTRACT: World population has experienced continuous growth since 1400 A.D. Current projections show a continued increase - but a steady decline in the population growth rate - with the number expected to reach between 8 and 10.5 billion people within 40 years. The elderly population is rapidly rising: in 1950 there were 205 million people aged 60 or older, while in 2000 there were 606 million. By 2050, the global population aged 60 or over is projected to expand by more than three times, reaching nearly 2 billion people 1. Most cancers are age-related diseases: in the US, 50% of all malignancies occur in people aged 65-95. 60% of all cancers are expected to be diagnosed in elderly patients by 2020 2. Further, cancer-related mortality increases with age: 70% of all malignancy-related deaths are registered in people aged 65 years or older 3. Here we introduce the microscopic aspects of aging, the pro-inflammatory phenotype of the elderly, and the changes related to immunosenescence. Then we deal with cancer disease and its development, the difficulty of treatment administration in the geriatric population, and the importance of a comprehensive geriatric assessment. Finally, we aim to analyze the complex interactions of aging with cancer and cancer vaccinology, and the importance of this last approach as a complementary therapy to different levels of prevention and treatment. Cancer vaccines, in fact, should at present be recommended in association to a stronger cancer prevention and conventional therapies (surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy), both for curative and palliative intent, in order to reduce morbidity and mortality associated to cancer progression.     

Association between metabolic syndrome and participation in colorectal cancer screening in Japan: A retrospective cohort analysis using LIFE study data

BackgroundPeople with metabolic syndrome have an elevated risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), and are recommended to undergo cancer screening. This study examined the association between metabolic syndrome and CRC screening participation in Japan.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study was conducted using insurance claims data, health checkup data, and cancer screening data from a Japanese city. The study population comprised persons aged 40–74 years who had undergone health checkups between fiscal years (FY) 2016 and 2019. The exposure was metabolic syndrome risk (high risk, moderate risk, and no risk) as determined during health checkups. The outcome was CRC screening participation. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the associations between metabolic syndrome risk and CRC screening participation.ResultsWe analyzed 20,558 people in the FY2016 cohort, 19,065 people in the FY2017 cohort, 17,496 people in the FY2018 cohort, and 15,647 people in the FY2019 cohort. The odds of CRC screening participation were significantly lower in the moderate-risk group (P < 0.05) in all FYs except FY2019 and the high-risk group (P < 0.001) in all FYs when compared with the no-risk group. When analyzed according to age group, older persons aged 65–74 years generally had significantly lower odds of CRC screening participation than persons aged 40–49 years across all metabolic syndrome risk groups.ConclusionThis is the first study from Japan to show that people with metabolic syndrome, especially older persons aged 65–74 years, are less likely to undergo CRC screening than people without metabolic syndrome. These findings indicate a need to develop and implement age-specific measures to increase cancer screening uptake among persons with metabolic syndrome.     

Survival of cancer patients in urban and rural areas of Germany—A comparison

BackgroundCancer care services including cancer prevention activities are predominantly localised in central cities, potentially causing a heterogeneous geographic access to cancer care. The question of an association between residence in either urban or rural areas and cancer survival has been analysed in other parts of the world with inconsistent results. This study aims at a comparison of age-standardised 5-year survival of cancer patients resident in German urban and rural regions using data from 11 population-based cancer registries covering a population of 33 million people.Material and methodsPatients diagnosed with cancers of the most frequent and of some rare sites in 1997–2006 were included in the analyses. Places of residence were assigned to rural and urban areas according to administrative district types of settlement structure. Period analysis and district type specific population life tables were used to calculate overall age-standardised 5-year relative survival estimates for the period 2002–2006. Poisson regression models for excess mortality (relative survival) were used to test for statistical significance.ResultsThe 5-year relative survival estimates varied little among district types for most of the common sites with no consistent trend. Significant differences were found for female breast cancer patients and male malignant melanoma patients resident in city core regions with slightly better survival compared to all other district types, particularly for patients aged 65 years and older.ConclusionWith regard to residence in urban or rural areas, the results of our study indicate that there are no severe differences concerning quality and accessibility of oncological care in Germany among different district types of settlement.     

Long-term survival of patients with prostate cancer in Martinique: Results of a population-based study

BackgroundMartinique has one of the highest incidences of prostate cancer (PCa) worldwide. We analysed overall survival (OS) among patients with PCa in Martinique, using data from a population-based cancer registry between 2005 and 2014.MethodsThe log-rank test was used to assess the statistical differences between survival curves according to age at diagnosis, risk of disease progression including Gleason score, stage at diagnosis and Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA). A multivariable Cox model was constructed to identify independent prognostic factors for OS.ResultsA total of 5045 patients were included with a mean age at diagnosis of 68.1±9.0 years [36.0 – 98.0 years]. Clinical stage was analysed in 4999 (99.1% of overall), 19.5% were at low risk, 34.7% intermediate and 36.9% at high risk. In our study, 8.9% of patients with available stage at diagnosis, were regional/metastatic cancers. Median PSA level at diagnosis was 10.4 ng/mL. High-risk PCa was more frequent in patients aged 65-74 and ≥75 years as compared to those aged <65 years (36.6% and 48.8% versus 28.7% respectively; p<0.0001). One-year OS was 96.3%, 5-year OS was 83.4 and 10-year OS was 65.0%. Median survival was not reached in the whole cohort. High-risk PCa (HR=2.32; p<0.0001), regional/metastatic stage (HR= 9.51; p<0.0001) and older age (65-74 and ≥75 years - respectively HR=1.70; and HR=3.38), were independent prognostic factors for OS (p<0.0001).ConclusionThis study provides long term data that may be useful in making cancer management decisions for patients with PCa in Martinique.     

Declining hysterectomy prevalence and the estimated impact on uterine cancer incidence in Scotland

AimThe prevalence of hysterectomy is decreasing worldwide. It is not clear whether changes in the population at risk (women with intact uteruses) have contributed to an increased uterine cancer incidence. This study aims to assess the effect of changing trends in hysterectomy prevalence on uterine cancer incidence in Scotland.MethodsThe population of women aged ≥25 years with intact uteri was estimated using the estimated hysterectomy prevalence in 1995 and the number of procedures performed in Scotland (1996–2015). Age-standardized uterine cancer incidence was estimated using uncorrected (total) or corrected (adjusted for hysterectomy prevalence) populations as denominators and the number of incident cancers as numerators. Annual percentage change in uterine cancer was estimated.ResultsHysterectomy prevalence fell from 13% to 10% between 1996–2000 and 2011–2015, with the most marked decline (from 20% to 6%) in the 50–54-year age group. After correction for hysterectomy prevalence, age-standardized incidence of uterine cancer increased by 20–22%. Annual percentage change in incidence of uterine cancer remained stable through the study period and was 2.2% (95%CI 1.8–2.7) and 2.1% (95%CI 1.7–2.6) for uncorrected and corrected estimates, respectively.ConclusionUterine cancer incidence in Scotland corrected for hysterectomy prevalence is higher than estimates using a total female population as denominator. The annual percentage increase in uterine cancer incidence was stable in both uncorrected and corrected populations despite a declining hysterectomy prevalence. The rise in uterine cancer incidence may thus be driven by other factors, including an ageing population, changing reproductive choices, and obesity.     

Tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption as risk factors for thymoma – A European case-control study

PurposeHardly anything is known about the aetiology of thymoma. This paper presents data regarding tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption in relation to thymoma from the first case-control study performed on this rare tumour.MethodsA European multi-centre case-control study including incident cases aged 35–69 years with thymoma between 1995 and 1997, was conducted in seven countries. A set of controls, used in seven parallel case-control studies by the same research group was used, including population-based controls from five countries and hospital controls with colon cancer from two countries. Altogether 103 cases, accepted by a reference pathologist, 712 colon cancer controls, and 2071 population controls were interviewed.ResultsTobacco smoking was moderately related with thymoma (OR 1.4, 95% CI 0.9–2.2), and a tendency to dose-response was shown (p = 0.04), with an increased risk for heavy smokers defined as ≥41 pack-years (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.1–3.9). A high consumption of spirits defined as ≥25 g of alcohol per day was associated with an increased risk of thymoma (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.1–5.4), whereas no association was found with beer or wine.ConclusionsTobacco smoking and a high intake of spirits were indicated as risk factors for thymoma.     

Risk of cancer of the breast after legal abortion during first trimester: a Swedish register study.

An increase in induced abortions in Sweden has been accompanied by an increase in the incidence of breast cancer of about 40% in women aged 20-44. To assess whether the apparent risk is real the risk of breast cancer was investigated in practically all Swedish women with a history of a legal abortion in the first trimester before the age of 30 during 1966-74 (n = 49,000). The cohort was followed up in the Swedish cancer register to identify cases of breast cancer diagnosed more than five years after the abortion until the end of 1984. The number of observed cases of breast cancer was 65 compared with an expected number of 84.5, estimated from the contemporary Swedish population with due consideration to age, giving a relative risk of 0.8 (95% confidence interval 0.58 to 0.99). Contrary to most earlier reports, this study did not indicate any overall increased risk of breast cancer after an induced abortion in the first trimester in young women.     

The cost of premature death from cancer attributable to alcohol: Productivity losses in Europe in 2018

BackgroundMore than 1.9 million people die from cancer each year in Europe. Alcohol use is a major modifiable risk factor for cancer and poses an economic burden on society. We estimated the cost of productivity lost due to premature death (under 65 years of age) from alcohol-attributable cancer in the European Union (EU) plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom (UK) in 2018.MethodsWe estimated cancer deaths attributable to alcohol using a Levin-based population attributable fractions method and cancer deaths in 2018 from the Global Cancer Observatory. Lost productivity was estimated for all alcohol-attributable cancer deaths by sex, cancer site, and country. Productivity losses were valued using the human capital approach.ResultsAn estimated 23,300 cancer deaths among people aged less than 65 in the EU plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and the UK in 2018 were attributable to alcohol (18,200 males, 5100 females). This equated to €4.58 billion in total productivity losses in the region and 0.027 % of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The average cost per alcohol-attributable cancer death was €196,000. Productivity lost to alcohol-attributable cancer per capita was highest in Western Europe. Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Portugal had the highest rate of premature mortality from alcohol-attributable cancer and the highest productivity lost as a share of national GDP.ConclusionOur study provides estimates of lost productivity from alcohol-attributable cancer death in Europe. Cost-effective strategies to prevent alcohol-attributable cancer deaths could result in economic benefits for society and must be prioritised.     

Increasing incidence and survival of corpus uteri cancer in Estonia over the past two decades

BackgroundCorpus uteri cancer has become the fourth most common female cancer in Europe. In Estonia, the prevalence of obesity is increasing, and corpus uteri cancer survival has been relatively low. The aim of the study was to evaluate incidence, mortality and survival trends of corpus uteri cancer in Estonia by age, stage and histological subtypes with an emphasis on surgical treatment.MethodsEstonian Cancer Registry data on incident cases of corpus uteri cancer were used to examine incidence trends (1995–2016) and calculate relative survival ratios (RSR) (1996–2016). Cases were classified by morphology and FIGO stage. Causes of Death Registry data were used to analyse corrected mortality (1995–2017).ResultsA total of 4281 cases were diagnosed in 1996–2016. A significant increase was seen in age-standardized incidence from 2009, while mortality remained stable throughout the study period. Significant increases were observed for type I cancers and age groups ≥65 years. Overall age-standardized 5-year RSR improved from 70% in 1996–2002 to 78% in 2010–2016. Survival increased for type I cancers, all age groups and all stages (significantly for stage IV). The proportion of surgically treated cases increased significantly from 85% to 89%, with the largest increases seen in older age groups and later stages.DiscussionThe rising corpus uteri cancer incidence in Estonia is driven by the type I cancer trend. Survival gain for later stages and older age groups likely reflected more frequent surgical treatment. To reduce mortality, further efforts are necessary to ensure appropriate care for all patients.     

Effect of Pap-smear and sociodemographic factors on cervical cancer risk in Estonia: A population-based case-control study

BackgroundLike many Eastern-European countries, Estonia struggles with ineffective cervical cancer (CC) screening. Despite a long-term organised screening programme and high overall Pap-smear coverage, CC incidence and mortality remain very high. The aim of the study was to examine the reasons for high CC incidence in Estonia by analysing the effect of Pap-smears and sociodemographic factors on CC risk.MethodsIn this population-based case-control study, women aged ≥ 25 years with an in situ/invasive CC diagnosed in Estonia in 2011–2017 were defined as cases. Using a density sampling scheme, controls were randomly selected from general population. To estimate CC risk associated with having no Pap-smears during seven years before diagnosis (cases) or index date (controls), place of residence, interruption in health insurance, and several sociodemographic factors, multivariate logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Individual-level data from three population-based registries were used.ResultsAmong 1439 cases and 4317 controls, proportion of women with no Pap-smears was 53% and 35%, respectively. Women with no Pap-smears were at higher risk for CC (OR=2.35; 95% CI: 1.85–2.98). CC risk was increased among women who were younger, living in more remote regions, lower-educated, or divorced/widowed. Interruption in health insurance was associated with a 23% risk increase. Regional differences in CC risk were observed among screened women.ConclusionTo reduce the risk of CC in Estonia, efforts are necessary to increase screening coverage among high-risk women and ensure the quality of CC screening programme. Screening approaches and communication should be tailored to the needs of different population groups. Further studies are warranted to identify the reasons for regional differences in CC risk.     

Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030

BackgroundUNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets.Methods and findingsWe simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19–related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections.ConclusionsThe new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

John Stover and co-workers assess the potential health impacts of UNAIDS’ HIV/AIDS targets.     

Life Expectancy and Treatment Patterns in Elderly Patients With Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis

ObjectiveGuidelines endorse active surveillance for low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), but this is not commonly utilized. Those with limited life expectancy due to age and comorbidity may be best suited for active surveillance given their higher likelihood of other-cause mortality compared to disease-specific mortality.MethodsSurveillance, epidemiology, and end results-Medicare was queried for patients >65 years with T1, N0, M0 PTC who received surgery. We evaluated the overall survival, disease-specific survival (DSS), and survival based on tumor size and extent of surgery (hemi- vs total thyroidectomy). We created a competing risk model to identify the cumulative incidence of other-cause mortality to define patient groups with life expectancies of less than 10 and 15 years.ResultsA total of 3280 patients were included. The 20-year overall survival and DSS were 38.2% and 98.5%, respectively. DSS was comparable between patients based on tumor size and surgery. The cancer cohort had better survival compared to matched controls (P < .001). Life expectancy was less than 15 years for any patient aged >80 years regardless of Charlson comorbidity score (CCS ≥ 0) and any patient aged >70 years with CCS ≥ 1. Life expectancy was less than 10 years for any patient a >80 years with CCS ≥ 1 and aged >70 years with CCS ≥ 3.ConclusionOlder patients with comorbidities have limited life expectancies but excellent DSS from low-risk PTC. Incorporating life expectancy into management decisions and guidelines would likely promote selection of less aggressive management for populations that are most suited for this approach.     

Adolescent and young adult cancers in India–Findings from the National Cancer Registry Programme

BackgroundThe adolescent and young adult (AYA) age group is a bridge between pediatric and adult age groups. The present study describes the epidemiology of cancers in the AYA age group in India.MethodsThe data of primary site cancers in the age group of 15–39 years from the 28 Population Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs') and 58 Hospital Based Cancer Registries under the National Cancer Registry Programme for the reporting year 2012–2016 was analysed.ResultsThe median age adjusted incidence rate (AAR) was 22.2 per 100,000 among males and 29.2 per 100,000 among females. The age-specific incidence rate increased with increasing age in both genders with the highest recorded numbers in the 35–39 age group. The proportion of myeloid leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was highest in the 15–24 age group. Cancers of the breast, thyroid, mouth and tongue constituted the leading sites between 30 and 39 years. There was a significant increase in the incidence among AYA males (APC=0.9) between 1985 and 2015, while a decline in incidence was observed for females, which was not significant (APC=−0.2). The majority of patients had locoregional spread of cancer at the time of diagnosis. The projected number of cancer cases in both genders are expected to increase to 178,617 in 2025.ConclusionCancers in the AYA population are a concern in India. Since AYA oncology appears to be evolving in India, a robust health care system and suitable AYA cancer care policies and programmes are strongly needed to improve disease outcomes and survival.     

Years of potential life lost caused by prostate cancer deaths in the United States—Projection from 2004 through 2050

BackgroundThe purpose of this study is to estimate and project the number of years of potential life lost (YPLL) among males who die of prostate cancer in the United States from 2004 through 2050 and compare the projections by race/ethnicity and age, accounting for demographic changes and population growth.MethodsWe applied the life expectancy method to estimate YPLL caused by deaths of prostate cancer and all cancers in men by using 1999–2004 national mortality data, 2008 census population demographic projections, and 2004 U.S. life tables. We performed sensitivity analyses by varying death rate and population projections, and examined increase in YPLL from population growth, changes in demographics, and death rates.ResultsThe number of YPLL caused by prostate cancer deaths was projected to increase by 226.1%, from 291,853 in 2004 to 951,753 in 2050. Hispanics were projected to have the fastest growth in YPLL (977.1% from 2004 to 2050) caused by prostate cancer, followed by non-Hispanic blacks (543.1%), and non-Hispanic others (269.7%). People aged 75 or older was projected to account for 62.0% of YPLL from prostate cancer in 2050 compared with 50.8% in 2004. Of the projected increase in YPLL caused by prostate cancer deaths by 2050, 9.8% were due to changes in demographic composition, 26.8% because of mortality change, and 63.4% because of population growth.ConclusionsYPLL due to prostate cancer deaths are projected to increase dramatically, and become a greater burden in the future. The projections highlight the importance of comprehensive cancer control and research on cancers including prostate cancer and racial/ethnic-specific estimates.     

The Population Cost‐Effectiveness of Weight Watchers with General Practitioner Referral Compared with Standard Care

Objective

This study aimed to assess population‐level cost‐effectiveness of the Weight Watchers (WW) program with doctor referral compared with standard care (SC) for Australian adults with overweight and obesity.

Methods

The target population was Australian adults ≥ 20 years old with BMI ≥ 27 kg/m², whose obesity status was subsequently modeled for 2015 to 2025. A microsimulation model (noncommunicable disease model [NCDMod]) was used to assess the incremental cost‐effectiveness of WW compared with SC. A health system perspective was taken, and outcomes were measured by obesity cases averted in 2025, BMI units averted for 2015 to 2025, and quality‐adjusted life years for 2015 to 2025. Univariate sensitivity testing was used to measure variations in the model parameters.

Results

The WW intervention resulted in 60,445 averted cases of obesity in 2025 (2,311 more cases than for SC), extra intervention costs of A$219 million, and cost savings within the health system of A$17,248 million (A$82 million more than for SC) for 2015 to 2025 compared with doing nothing. The modeled WW had an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of A$35,195 in savings per case of obesity averted in 2025. WW remained dominant over SC for the different scenarios in the sensitivity analysis.

Conclusions

The WW intervention represents good value for money. The WW intervention needs serious consideration in a national package of obesity health services.