Capacity and Adaptations of General Practice during an Influenza Pandemic

Background

GPs play a major role in influenza epidemics, and most patients with influenza-like-illness (ILI) are treated in general practice or by primary care doctors on duty in out-of-hours services (OOH). Little is known about the surge capacity in primary care services during an influenza pandemic, and how the relationship between them changes.

Aim

To investigate how general practice and OOH services were used by patients during the 2009 pandemic in Norway and the impact of the pandemic on primary care services in comparison to a normal influenza season.

Materials

Data from electronic remuneration claims from all OOH doctors and regular GPs for 2009.

Methods

We conducted a registry-based study of all ILI consultations in the 2009 pandemic with the 2008/09 influenza season (normal season) as baseline for comparison.

Results

The majority (82.2%) of ILI consultations during the 2009 pandemic took place in general practice. The corresponding number in the 2008/09 season was 89.3%. Compared with general practice, the adjusted odds ratio for ILI with all other diagnoses as reference in OOH services was 1.23 (95% CI, 1.18, 1.27) for the 2008/2009 season and 1.87 (95% CI, 1.84, 1.91) for the pandemic influenza season. In total there was a 3.3-fold increase in ILI consultations during the pandemic compared to the 2008/09 season. A 5.5-fold increase of ILI consultations were observed in OOH services in comparison to the 2008/09 season. Children and young adults with ILI were the most frequent users of OOH services during influenza periods.

Conclusions

The autumn pandemic wave resulted in a significantly increased demand on primary care services. However, GPs in primary care services in Norway showed the ability to increase capacity in a situation with increased patient demand.     

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Community Transmission Was Established in One Australian State When the Virus Was First Identified in North America

Background

In mid-June 2009 the State of Victoria in Australia appeared to have the highest notification rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in the world. We hypothesise that this was because community transmission of pandemic influenza was already well established in Victoria at the time testing for the novel virus commenced. In contrast, this was not true for the pandemic in other parts of Australia, including Western Australia (WA).

Methods

We used data from detailed case follow-up of patients with confirmed infection in Victoria and WA to demonstrate the difference in the pandemic curve in two Australian states on opposite sides of the continent. We modelled the pandemic in both states, using a susceptible-infected-removed model with Bayesian inference accounting for imported cases.

Results

Epidemic transmission occurred earlier in Victoria and later in WA. Only 5% of the first 100 Victorian cases were not locally acquired and three of these were brothers in one family. By contrast, 53% of the first 102 cases in WA were associated with importation from Victoria. Using plausible model input data, estimation of the effective reproductive number for the Victorian epidemic required us to invoke an earlier date for commencement of transmission to explain the observed data. This was not required in modelling the epidemic in WA.

Conclusion

Strong circumstantial evidence, supported by modelling, suggests community transmission of pandemic influenza was well established in Victoria, but not in WA, at the time testing for the novel virus commenced in Australia. The virus is likely to have entered Victoria and already become established around the time it was first identified in the US and Mexico.     

The new school absentees reporting system for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in Japan

Objective

To evaluate the new Japanese School Absentees Reporting System for Infectious Disease (SARSID) for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection in comparison with the National epidemiological Surveillance of Infectious Disease (NESID).

Methods

We used data of 53,223 students (97.7%) in Takamatsu city Japan. Data regarding school absentees in SARSID was compared with that in NESID from Oct 13, 2009 to Jan 12, 2010.

Results

Similar trends were observed both in SARSID and NESID. However, the epidemic trend for influenza in SARSID was thought to be more sensitive than that in NESID.

Conclusion

The epidemic trend for influenza among school-aged children could be easily and rapidly assessed by SARSID compared to NESID. SARSID might be useful for detecting the epidemic trend of influenza.     

The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza

Background

As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.

Methods and Findings

Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.

Conclusions

Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.     

The geographic synchrony of seasonal influenza: a waves across Canada and the United States

Background

As observed during the 2009 pandemic, a novel influenza virus can spread globally before the epidemic peaks locally. As consistencies in the relative timing and direction of spread could form the basis for an early alert system, the objectives of this study were to use the case-based reporting system for laboratory confirmed influenza from the Canadian FluWatch surveillance program to identify the geographic scale at which spatial synchrony exists and then to describe the geographic patterns of influenza A virus across Canada and in relationship to activity in the United States (US).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Weekly laboratory confirmations for influenza A were obtained from the Canadian FluWatch and the US FluView surveillance programs from 1997/98 to 2006/07. For the six seasons where at least 80% of the specimens were antigenically similar, we identified the epidemic midpoint of the local/regional/provincial epidemics and analyzed trends in the direction of spread. In three out of the six seasons, the epidemic appeared first in Canada. Regional epidemics were more closely synchronized across the US (3–5 weeks) compared to Canada (5–13 weeks), with a slight gradient in timing from the southwest regions in the US to northeast regions of Canada and the US. Cities, as well as rural areas within provinces, usually peaked within a couple of weeks of each other. The anticipated delay in peak activity between large cities and rural areas was not observed. In some mixed influenza A seasons, lack of synchronization sub-provincially was evident.

Conclusions/Significance

As mixing between regions appears to be too weak to force a consistency in the direction and timing of spread, local laboratory-based surveillance is needed to accurately assess the level of influenza activity in the community. In comparison, mixing between urban communities and adjacent rural areas, and between some communities, may be sufficient to force synchronization.     

Impact of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic on Age-Specific Epidemic Curves of Other Respiratory Viruses: A Comparison of Pre-Pandemic,Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Periods in a Subtropical City

Background

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic caused offseason peaks in temperate regions but coincided with the summer epidemic of seasonal influenza and other common respiratory viruses in subtropical Hong Kong. This study was aimed to investigate the impact of the pandemic on age-specific epidemic curves of other respiratory viruses.

Methods

Weekly laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A (subtypes seasonal A(H1N1), A(H3N2), pandemic virus A(H1N1)pdm09), influenza B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus and parainfluenza were obtained from 2004 to 2013. Age-specific epidemic curves of viruses other than A(H1N1)pdm09 were compared between the pre-pandemic (May 2004 – April 2009), pandemic (May 2009 – April 2010) and post-pandemic periods (May 2010 – April 2013).

Results

There were two peaks of A(H1N1)pdm09 in Hong Kong, the first in September 2009 and the second in February 2011. The infection rate was found highest in young children in both waves, but markedly fewer cases in school children were recorded in the second wave than in the first wave. Positive proportions of viruses other than A(H1N1)pdm09 markedly decreased in all age groups during the first pandemic wave. After the first wave of the pandemic, the positive proportion of A(H3N2) increased, but those of B and RSV remained slightly lower than their pre-pandemic proportions. Changes in seasonal pattern and epidemic peak time were also observed, but inconsistent across virus-age groups.

Conclusion

Our findings provide some evidence that age distribution, seasonal pattern and peak time of other respiratory viruses have changed since the pandemic. These changes could be the result of immune interference and changing health seeking behavior, but the mechanism behind still needs further investigations.     

Effect of the H1N1 influenza pandemic on the incidence of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis and on hygiene behavior: a cross-sectional study

Background

EKC is transmitted chiefly by direct hand contact. It is suspected that the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic influenced hand washing. This study aims to examine the relationship between the 2009/2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic and hygiene behavior.

Methods

We compared the EKC prevalence trends before, during and after the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic by using a t-test comparison of EKC sentinel surveillance.

Results

During the pre-pandemic period, the incidence of EKC increased from the 21st to the 44th week each year. However, during the pandemic period in 2009, there was no epidemic peak. In the post-pandemic period, the epidemic curve was similar to that in the pre-pandemic period. Compared to the pre-pandemic period, the total number of EKC patients during the pandemic period showed a decrease of 44.9% (t value = −7.23, p = 0.002). Comparing the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods by age group, we found there to be a significant decrease in the number of EKC patients for all age groups (−4.12≤t value≤−7.23, all P<0.05). This finding was most evident in the teenage group (62%) compared to the other age groups (decreases of 29 to 44%).

Conclusions

A continuing effort should be made to educate the public on basic infection prevention behaviors in the aftermath of the pandemic, particularly to teenagers.     

Influenza Outbreak during Sydney World Youth Day 2008: The Utility of Laboratory Testing and Case Definitions on Mass Gathering Outbreak Containment

Background

Influenza causes annual epidemics and often results in extensive outbreaks in closed communities. To minimize transmission, a range of interventions have been suggested. For these to be effective, an accurate and timely diagnosis of influenza is required. This is confirmed by a positive laboratory test result in an individual whose symptoms are consistent with a predefined clinical case definition. However, the utility of these clinical case definitions and laboratory testing in mass gathering outbreaks remains unknown.

Methods and Results

An influenza outbreak was identified during World Youth Day 2008 in Sydney. From the data collected on pilgrims presenting to a single clinic, a Markov model was developed and validated against the actual epidemic curve. Simulations were performed to examine the utility of different clinical case definitions and laboratory testing strategies for containment of influenza outbreaks. Clinical case definitions were found to have the greatest impact on averting further cases with no added benefit when combined with any laboratory test. Although nucleic acid testing (NAT) demonstrated higher utility than indirect immunofluorescence antigen or on-site point-of-care testing, this effect was lost when laboratory NAT turnaround times was included. The main benefit of laboratory confirmation was limited to identification of true influenza cases amenable to interventions such as antiviral therapy.

Conclusions

Continuous re-evaluation of case definitions and laboratory testing strategies are essential for effective management of influenza outbreaks during mass gatherings.     

Prevalence of Seropositivity to Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1 Virus in the United States following the 2009 Pandemic

Background

2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (A(H1N1)pdm09) was first detected in the United States in April 2009 and resulted in a global pandemic. We conducted a serologic survey to estimate the cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 through the end of 2009 when pandemic activity had waned in the United States.

Methods

We conducted a pair of cross sectional serologic surveys before and after the spring/fall waves of the pandemic for evidence of seropositivity (titer ≥40) using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. We tested a baseline sample of 1,142 serum specimens from the 2007–2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), and 2,759 serum specimens submitted for routine screening to clinical diagnostic laboratories from ten representative sites.

Results

The age-adjusted prevalence of seropositivity to A(H1N1)pdm09 by year-end 2009 was 36.9% (95%CI: 31.7–42.2%). After adjusting for baseline cross-reactive antibody, pandemic vaccination coverage and the sensitivity/specificity of the HI assay, we estimate that 20.2% (95%CI: 10.1–28.3%) of the population was infected with A(H1N1)pdm09 by December 2009, including 53.3% (95%CI: 39.0–67.1%) of children aged 5–17 years.

Conclusions

By December 2009, approximately one-fifth of the US population, or 61.9 million persons, may have been infected with A(H1N1)pdm09, including around half of school-aged children.     

Respiratory Viruses in Hospitalized Children with Influenza-Like Illness during the H1n1 2009 Pandemic in Sweden

Background

The swine-origin influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic of 2009 had a slower spread in Europe than expected. The human rhinovirus (HRV) has been suggested to have delayed the pandemic through viral interference. The importance of co-infections over time during the pandemic and in terms of severity of the disease needs to be assessed.

Objective

The aim of this study was to investigate respiratory viruses and specifically the presence of co-infections with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (H1N1) in hospitalized children during the H1N1 pandemic. A secondary aim was to investigate if co-infections were associated with severity of disease.

Methods

A retrospective study was performed on 502 children with influenza-like illness admitted to inpatient care at a pediatric hospital in Stockholm, Sweden during the 6 months spanning the H1N1 pandemic in 2009. Respiratory samples were analyzed for a panel of 16 viruses by real-time polymerase chain reaction.

Results

One or more viruses were detected in 61.6% of the samples. Of these, 85.4% were single infections and 14.6% co-infections (2–4 viruses). The number of co-infections increased throughout the study period. H1N1 was found in 83 (16.5%) children and of these 12 (14.5%) were co-infections. HRV and H1N1 circulated to a large extent at the same time and 6.0% of the H1N1-positive children were also positive for HRV. There was no correlation between co-infections and severity of disease in children with H1N1.

Conclusions

Viral co-infections were relatively common in H1N1 infected hospitalized children and need to be considered when estimating morbidity attributed to H1N1. Population-based longitudinal studies with repeated sampling are needed to improve the understanding of the importance of co-infections and viral interference.     

High burden of non-influenza viruses in influenza-like illness in the early weeks of H1N1v epidemic in France

Background

Influenza-like illness (ILI) may be caused by a variety of pathogens. Clinical observations are of little help to recognise myxovirus infection and implement appropriate prevention measures. The limited use of molecular tools underestimates the role of other common pathogens.

Objectives

During the early weeks of the 2009–2010 flu pandemic, a clinical and virological survey was conducted in adult and paediatric patients with ILI referred to two French University hospitals in Paris and Tours. Aims were to investigate the different pathogens involved in ILI and describe the associated symptoms.

Methods

H1N1v pandemic influenza diagnosis was performed with real time RT-PCR assay. Other viral aetiologies were investigated by the molecular multiplex assay RespiFinder19®. Clinical data were collected prospectively by physicians using a standard questionnaire.

Results

From week 35 to 44, endonasal swabs were collected in 413 patients. Overall, 68 samples (16.5%) were positive for H1N1v. In 13 of them, other respiratory pathogens were also detected. Among H1N1v negative samples, 213 (61.9%) were positive for various respiratory agents, 190 in single infections and 23 in mixed infections. The most prevalent viruses in H1N1v negative single infections were rhinovirus (62.6%), followed by parainfluenza viruses (24.2%) and adenovirus (5.3%). 70.6% of H1N1v cases were identified in patients under 40 years and none after 65 years. There was no difference between clinical symptoms observed in patients infected with H1N1v or with other pathogens.

Conclusion

Our results highlight the high frequency of non-influenza viruses involved in ILI during the pre-epidemic period of a flu alert and the lack of specific clinical signs associated with influenza infections. Rapid diagnostic screening of a large panel of respiratory pathogens may be critical to define and survey the epidemic situation and to provide critical information for patient management.     

Leading Indicators and the Evaluation of the Performance of Alerts for Influenza Epidemics

Background

Most evaluations of epidemic thresholds for influenza have been limited to internal criteria of the indicator variable. We aimed to initiate discussion on appropriate methods for evaluation and the value of cross-validation in assessing the performance of a candidate indicator for influenza activity.

Methods

Hospital records of in-patients with a diagnosis of confirmed influenza were extracted from the Canadian Discharge Abstract Database from 2003 to 2011 and aggregated to weekly and regional levels, yielding 7 seasons and 4 regions for evaluation (excluding the 2009 pandemic period). An alert created from the weekly time-series of influenza positive laboratory tests (FluWatch, Public Health Agency of Canada) was evaluated against influenza-confirmed hospitalizations on 5 criteria: lead/lag timing; proportion of influenza hospitalizations covered by the alert period; average length of the influenza alert period; continuity of the alert period and length of the pre-peak alert period.

Results

Influenza hospitalizations led laboratory positive tests an average of only 1.6 (95% CI: -1.5, 4.7) days. However, the difference in timing exceeded 1 week and was statistically significant at the significance level of 0.01 in 5 out of 28 regional seasons. An alert based primarily on 5% positivity and 15 positive tests produced an average alert period of 16.6 weeks. After allowing for a reporting delay of 2 weeks, the alert period included 80% of all influenza-confirmed hospitalizations. For 20 out of the 28 (71%) seasons, the first alert would have been signalled at least 3 weeks (in real time) prior to the week with maximum number of influenza hospitalizations.

Conclusions

Virological data collected from laboratories was a good indicator of influenza activity with the resulting alert covering most influenza hospitalizations and providing a reasonable pre-peak warning at the regional level. Though differences in timing were statistically significant, neither time-series consistently led the other.     

Rapid detection and subtyping of human influenza A viruses and reassortants by pyrosequencing

Background

Given the continuing co-circulation of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza A viruses with seasonal H3N2 viruses, rapid and reliable detection of newly emerging influenza reassortant viruses is important to enhance our influenza surveillance.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A novel pyrosequencing assay was developed for the rapid identification and subtyping of potential human influenza A virus reassortants based on all eight gene segments of the virus. Except for HA and NA genes, one universal set of primers was used to amplify and subtype each of the six internal genes. With this method, all eight gene segments of 57 laboratory isolates and 17 original specimens of seasonal H1N1, H3N2 and 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses were correctly matched with their corresponding subtypes. In addition, this method was shown to be capable of detecting reassortant viruses by correctly identifying the source of all 8 gene segments from three vaccine production reassortant viruses and three H1N2 viruses.

Conclusions/Significance

In summary, this pyrosequencing assay is a sensitive and specific procedure for screening large numbers of viruses for reassortment events amongst the commonly circulating human influenza A viruses, which is more rapid and cheaper than using conventional sequencing approaches.     

Profiling of Humoral Response to Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Infection and Vaccination Measured by a Protein Microarray in Persons with and without History of Seasonal Vaccination

Background

The influence of prior seasonal influenza vaccination on the antibody response produced by natural infection or vaccination is not well understood.

Methods

We compared the profiles of antibody responses of 32 naturally infected subjects and 98 subjects vaccinated with a 2009 influenza A(H1N1) monovalent MF59-adjuvanted vaccine (Focetria®, Novartis), with and without a history of seasonal influenza vaccination. Antibodies were measured by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and by protein microarray (PA) using the HA1 subunit for seven recent and historic H1, H2 and H3 influenza viruses, and three avian influenza viruses. Serum samples for the infection group were taken at the moment of collection of the diagnostic sample, 10 days and 30 days after onset of influenza symptoms. For the vaccination group, samples were drawn at baseline, 3 weeks after the first vaccination and 5 weeks after the second vaccination.

Results

We showed that subjects with a history of seasonal vaccination generally exhibited higher baseline titers for the various HA1 antigens than subjects without a seasonal vaccination history. Infection and pandemic influenza vaccination responses in persons with a history of seasonal vaccination were skewed towards historic antigens.

Conclusions

Seasonal vaccination is of significant influence on the antibody response to subsequent infection and vaccination, and further research is needed to understand the effect of annual vaccination on protective immunity.     

Diagnostic Approach for the Differentiation of the Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)v Virus from Recent Human Influenza Viruses by Real-Time PCR

Background

The current spread of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)v virus necessitates an intensified surveillance of influenza virus infections worldwide. So far, in many laboratories routine diagnostics were limited to generic influenza virus detection only. To provide interested laboratories with real-time PCR assays for type and subtype identification, we present a bundle of PCR assays with which any human influenza A and B virus can be easily identified, including assays for the detection of the pandemic A(H1N1)v virus.

Principal Findings

The assays show optimal performance characteristics in their validation on plasmids containing the respective assay target sequences. All assays have furthermore been applied to several thousand clinical samples since 2007 (assays for seasonal influenza) and April 2009 (pandemic influenza assays), respectively, and showed excellent results also on clinical material.

Conclusions

We consider the presented assays to be well suited for the detection and subtyping of circulating influenza viruses.     

Pandemic Influenza (H1N1) 2009 Pneumonia: CURB-65 Score for Predicting Severity and Nasopharyngeal Sampling for Diagnosis Are Unreliable

Background

From the first case reports of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 it was clear that a significant proportion of infected individuals suffered a primary viral pneumonia. The objective of this study was twofold; to assess the utility of the CURB-65 community acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity index in predicting pneumonia severity and ICU admission, and to assess the relative sensitivity of nasopharyngeal versus lower respiratory tract sampling for the detection of pandemic influenza (H1N1) CAP.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of 70 patients hospitalised for pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 in an adult tertiary referral hospital. Characteristics evaluated included age, pregnancy status, sex, respiratory signs and symptoms, smoking and alcohol history, CURB-65 score, co-morbidities, disabling sequelae, length of stay and in-hospital mortality outcomes. Laboratory features evaluated included lymphocyte count, C-reactive protein (CRP), nasopharyngeal and lower respiratory tract pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 PCR results.

Results

Patients with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza CAP differed significantly from those without pneumonia regarding length of stay, need for ICU admission, CRP and the likelihood of disabling sequelae. The CURB-65 score did not predict CAP severity or the need for ICU admission (only 2/11 patients admitted to ICU had CURB-65 scores of 2 or 3). Nasopharyngeal specimens for PCR were only 62.9% sensitive in CAP patients compared to 97.8% sensitivity for lower respiratory tract specimens.

Conclusions

The CURB-65 score does not predict severe pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 CAP or need for ICU admission. Lower respiratory tract specimens should be collected when pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza CAP is suspected.     

Comparing pandemic to seasonal influenza mortality: moderate impact overall but high mortality in young children

Background

We assessed the severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic by comparing pandemic mortality to seasonal influenza mortality. However, reported pandemic deaths were laboratory-confirmed – and thus an underestimation – whereas seasonal influenza mortality is often more inclusively estimated. For a valid comparison, our study used the same statistical methodology and data types to estimate pandemic and seasonal influenza mortality.

Methods and Findings

We used data on all-cause mortality (1999–2010, 100% coverage, 16.5 million Dutch population) and influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence (0.8% coverage). Data was aggregated by week and age category. Using generalized estimating equation regression models, we attributed mortality to influenza by associating mortality with ILI-incidence, while adjusting for annual shifts in association. We also adjusted for respiratory syncytial virus, hot/cold weather, other seasonal factors and autocorrelation. For the 2009 pandemic season, we estimated 612 (range 266–958) influenza-attributed deaths; for seasonal influenza 1,956 (range 0–3,990). 15,845 years-of-life-lost were estimated for the pandemic; for an average seasonal epidemic 17,908. For 0–4 yrs of age the number of influenza-attributed deaths during the pandemic were higher than in any seasonal epidemic; 77 deaths (range 61–93) compared to 16 deaths (range 0–45). The ≥75 yrs of age showed a far below average number of deaths. Using pneumonia/influenza and respiratory/cardiovascular instead of all-cause deaths consistently resulted in relatively low total pandemic mortality, combined with high impact in the youngest age category.

Conclusion

The pandemic had an overall moderate impact on mortality compared to 10 preceding seasonal epidemics, with higher mortality in young children and low mortality in the elderly. This resulted in a total number of pandemic deaths far below the average for seasonal influenza, and a total number of years-of-life-lost somewhat below average. Comparing pandemic and seasonal influenza mortality as in our study will help assessing the worldwide impact of the 2009 pandemic.