Risk of dispersal in western spruce budworm

1 Western spruce budworm Choristoneura occidentalis Free. larvae emerge in the spring before buds have expanded and spend a variable period of time foraging on branches and mining needles.
2 Losses of dispersing budworms during this needle-mining period are related directly to the severity of defoliation in previous years and inversely related to foliage biomass in the study plot and to temperature and rainfall during the needle-mining period.
3 Losses can be interpreted in terms of risk of dispersal, which is the product of the propensity of early-stage budworms to disperse in search of resources and the consequences of this behaviour for survival under variable ecological conditions.
4 A comparison of the species-specific nature of risk of dispersal in three conifer-feeding budworm systems of North America may elucidate the common nature but variable features of their respective population dynamics.     

Ecological mechanisms of population change during outbreaks of the spruce budworm

Abstract.  1. Stage-specific survival and recruitment of spruce budworm were measured by frequent sampling of foliage in four outbreak populations over a 15-year period in Ontario and Quebec, Canada.
2. Patterns of change in population density during the outbreak collapse phase were closely linked to changes in survival of the late immature stages, and were determined largely by the impact of natural enemies.
3. Host-plant feedback also contributed significantly to survival patterns throughout the outbreak: annual defoliation influenced survival of fourth and fifth instars and fecundity while cumulative defoliation influenced survival of the very early larval stages (first and second) via impacts on stand condition.
4. Inclusion of this host-plant feedback reveals spruce budworm population dynamics as a function of density-related trophic interactions that vary in their order and strength of influence over time. This view re-introduces the importance of forest interactions as a component of dynamics of the spruce budworm.     

Modeling Spruce Budworm Population Revisited: Impact of Physiological Structure on Outbreak Control

Understanding the dynamics of spruce budworm population is very important for the protection of spruce and balsam fir trees of North American forests, and a full understanding of the dynamics requires careful consideration of the individual physiological structures that is essential for outbreak control. A model as a delay differential equation is derived from structured population system, and is validated by comparing simulation results with real data from the Green River area of New Brunswick (Canada) and with the periodic outbreaks widely observed. Analysis of the equilibrium stability and examination of the amplitudes and frequencies of periodic oscillations are conducted, and the effect of budworm control strategies such as mature population control, immature population control and predation by birds are assessed. Analysis and simulation results suggest that killing only budworm larvae might not be enough for the long-term control of the budworm population. Since the time required for development during the inactive stage (from egg to second instar caterpillar) causes periodic outbreak, a strategy of reducing budworms in the inactive stage, such as removing egg biomass, should also be implemented for successful control.     

A review of factors affecting the population dynamics of jack pine budworm (Choristoneura pinus pinus Freeman)

Jack pine budworm (Choristoneura pinus pinus Free.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a native insect that periodically defoliates areas of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) in the subboreal forests of North America east of the Rocky Mountains. Outbreaks of jack pine budworm generally occur at 6- to 12-year intervals and collapse after 2–4 years. Periodicity of outbreaks varies and is associated with site-related factors. Survival of early-instar larvae during spring dispersal is tied to the abundance of pollen cones (microsporangiate strobili), which provide a refuge for larvae until current-year needles expand. Jack pine trees that have been heavily defoliated produce few pollen cones in the following year, often resulting in high mortality of early-stage larvae. A diverse guild of generalist parasitoids attack jack pine budworm, but only a few species account for most mortality in any area. Collapsing jack pine budworm populations are characterized by sharp declines in early instar survival, coupled with an increased rate of parasitism in the late larval and pupal stages. The reciprocal interaction between heavy defoliation and low pollen cone production, and increased parasitism of late-stage larvae or pupae, are consistent with second-order density dependence factors identified in analysis of a long-term population data set. Since the 1950s, several jack pine budworm outbreaks have been roughly synchronous over a large geographic area, suggesting that Moran effect processes, as well as moth dispersal or other factors, may be involved in jack pine budworm dynamics. Although the short duration of outbreaks enables most trees to recover, over time dead trees and top-killed trees accumulate in jack pine stands. Jack pine is well adapted to fire and when fires ignite, the accumulation of dead trees and woody debris often leads to intense wildfires followed by prolific regeneration. The three-way interaction of jack pine, jack pine budworm, and fire ultimately serves to maintain vigorous stands and ensures continued hosts for jack pine budworm. Received: October 1, 1999 / Accepted: September 22, 2000     

Pattern analysis of eastern spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana dispersal

Dispersal has been proposed as an important mechanism in the broad‐scale synchronisation of insect outbreaks by linking spatially disjunct populations. Evidence suggests that dispersal is influenced by landscape structure, phenology, temperature, and air currents; however, the details remain unclear due to the difficulty of quantifying dispersal. In this study, we used data on the abundance and distribution of spruce budworm Choristoneura fumiferana larvae (potential dispersers) and adult male moths (dispersers) to make inference on the effects of air currents and host‐species abundance on dispersal. Hierarchical‐Bayesian and inverse modeling was used to explore 4 dispersal models: 1) isotropic dispersal; 2) directional‐dispersal; 3) directional‐and‐host‐species dispersal; and 4) host‐species dispersal. Despite their strong dependence on balsam fir Abies balsamea and spruce species Picea spp., the mapped basal area of these host species did not influence the pattern of dispersed moths. The model that best fit the data was the directional‐dispersal model, which showed that the prevailing dispersal direction was from the northwest (328°). We infer that the strong pattern of directional dispersal was due to a prevailing wind from the same direction. Our interpretation was corroborated by independent wind data during the period of active adult male budworm flight, particularly in the region with high larval abundance. Our results indicate that there was a relatively high probability of individuals flying at least 48 km with the wind where larvae abundance at source locations was also high. Such findings emphasize the importance of long‐distance dispersal on spatial distribution of adult male spruce budworms. Insight into the population‐level consequences of such dispersal patterns requires additional research.     

How does synchrony with host plant affect the performance of an outbreaking insect defoliator?

Phenological mismatch has been proposed as a key mechanism by which climate change can increase the severity of insect outbreaks. Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is a serious defoliator of North American conifers that feeds on buds in the early spring. Black spruce (Picea mariana) has traditionally been considered a poor-quality host plant since its buds open later than those of the preferred host, balsam fir (Abies balsamea). We hypothesize that advancing black spruce budbreak phenology under a warmer climate would improve its phenological synchrony with budworm and hence increase both its suitability as a host plant and resulting defoliation damage. We evaluated the relationship between tree phenology and both budworm performance and tree defoliation by placing seven cohorts of budworm larvae on black spruce and balsam fir branches at different lags with tree budburst. Our results show that on both host plants, spruce budworm survival and pupal mass decrease sharply when budbreak occurs prior to larval emergence. By contrast, emergence before budbreak decreases survival, but does not negatively impact growth or reproductive output. We also document phytochemical changes that occur as needles mature and define a window of opportunity for the budworm. Finally, larvae that emerged in synchrony with budbreak had the greatest defoliating effect on black spruce. Our results suggest that in the event of advanced black spruce phenology due to climate warming, this host species will support better budworm survival and suffer increased defoliation.     

Larval feeding behaviour affects the impact of staminate flower production on the suitability of balsam fir trees for spruce budworm

Laboratory rearing of spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana, in conjunction with field rearing indicated that the feeding behaviour of the larvae, which is affected by the insect population density, significantly influenced the impact of balsam fir, Abies balsamea, staminate flowering on spruce budworm biology. At low budworm density, the production of pollen in the midcrown of host trees reduced the insect development time by 5 days without affecting pupal weight, fecundity and survival. However, at high budworm density, the small amount of current-year foliage produced by flowering branches forced old larvae (sixth instar) either to feed on 1-year-old foliage (backfeeding) or to move from the midcrown to the lower crown section where staminate flowers are absent and more current-year foliage is available. When old larvae fed on old foliage, they exhibited reduced pupal weight and fecundity without losing the advange in development time that they obtained from feeding on pollen during their early stages of development. On the other hand, when old larvae moved to the lower crown section, they avoided the negative effects of backfeeding but lost the advantage in development time that was gained from feeding on pollen. Results from this study indicated that the production of staminate flowers by balsam fir trees could have opposite effects on spruce budworm population dynamics depending upon the insect population density when flowering occurs.     

Interguild interactions between a non-native phloem feeder and a native outbreaking defoliator

1. Competitive and synergistic interactions directly or indirectly drive community dynamics of herbivorous insects. Novel interactions between non-native and native insects are unpredictable and not fully understood. 2. We used manipulative experiments on mature red spruce trees to test interactions between a non-native phloem feeding insect, the brown spruce longhorn beetle (BSLB), and an outbreaking native defoliator, the spruce budworm. We subjected treatment trees to defoliation by three densities of spruce budworm larvae. Treatment trees were: stressed by (i) girdling (to mimic beetle feeding) or (ii) girdling + BSLB before spruce budworm larvae were introduced on branches in sleeve cages. Budworm larvae then fed on foliage and developed to pupation. We assessed all branches for budworm performance, defoliation, shoot production and shoot growth. 3. Shoot length did not differ in response to stress from girdling or BSLB infestation. Neither stress from girdling, nor interactions with BSLB feeding affected spruce budworm performance or defoliation. Intraspecific impacts on performance and defoliation in relation to budworm density were stronger than the effects of tree stress. 4. Prior infestation of red spruce by BSLB in our experimental set-up did not influence spruce budworm performance. BSLB is a successful invader that has blended into its novel ecological niche because of ecological and phylogenetic similarities with a native congener, Tetropium cinnamopterum. 5. Outbreaks by BSLB will not likely impede or facilitate spruce budworm outbreaks if they co-occur. It would be useful to evaluate the reverse scenario of BSLB success after defoliation stress by spruce budworm.     

Vertical transmission of Nosema fumiferanae (Microsporidia: Nosematidae) and consequences for distribution, post-diapause emergence and dispersal of second-instar larvae of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

We examined vertical transmission of Nosema fumiferanae in the eastern spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), and how it affects overwintering distribution and survival and spring emergence and dispersal of second-instar larvae in outbreak populations. Females containing 5.0 x 10(5) spores or more consistently produced 100% infected progeny. Transmission efficiency was still 50% at burdens as low as 0.2 x 10(5) spores per moth. Infection intensity in offspring increased with maternal spore load but became highly variable above 25 x 10(5) spores per female. Nosema multiplied in second instars for at least 1 month after they entered dormancy, regardless of temperature (2 degrees C versus 21 degrees C). Infection did not affect the distribution of overwintering larvae in a white spruce canopy. Dormancy survival between late-summer and the following spring was lower in families from infected females and was negatively correlated with larval infection intensity. Infection delayed larval emergence from hibernacula in the spring and resulted in delayed dispersal of emerged larvae, at least when parasite prevalence and infection intensities were high. Infected larvae were less successful in establishing feeding sites after dispersal. Our results underscore the potential of Nosema infection to negatively affect processes early in the budworm life cycle.     

Host shifting by Operophtera brumata into novel environments leads to population differentiation in life-history traits

Abstract.  1. Operophtera brumata L. (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), a polyphagous herbivore usually associated with deciduous trees such as oak Quercus robur L . , has expanded its host range to include the evergreen species heather Calluna vulgaris (L.) Hull and, most recently, Sitka spruce Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carrière.
2. Phenology, morphology, and survival of O. brumata were measured at several life-history stages in populations from the three different host plant communities sampled from a range of geographical locations. The data were used to test for population differences, reflecting the marked differences in host-plant secondary chemistry, growth form, and site factors such as climate. The hypothesis that spruce-feeding populations originated from populations feeding on moorland, commonly sites of coniferous afforestation, was also tested.
3. Altitude, not host plant species, was the major influence on the timing of adult emergence. An effect of insect population independent of altitude was found, implying that additional unidentified factors contribute to this phenological variation. Larval survival and adult size varied between populations reared on different host plant species. Survival of larvae was affected negatively when reared on the novel host plant, Sitka spruce, versus the natal plant (oak or heather) but oak and heather-sourced insects did not differ in survivorship on Sitka spruce.
4. Host range extension into novel environments has resulted in population differentiation to the local climate, demonstrating that host shifts pose challenges to the herbivore population greater than those offered by the host plant alone. The hypothesis that Sitka spruce feeding populations have arisen predominantly from moorland feeding populations was not supported.     

Three years of aerial field experiments with Bacillus thuringiensis plus chitinase formulation against the spruce budworm

From 1971 to 1973 several Bacillus thuringiensis formulations were tested in the field against larvae of the spruce budworm under various conditions of population and tree defoliation. The results showed B. thuringiensis treatments can be a weapon in the control of spruce budworm outbreaks and the beneficial effect of B. thuringiensis treatments appear to be prolonged over 1 or 2 years. A new compact formulation was developed making B. thuringiensis treatments more economical and competitive with chemical insecticides.     

Potential Role of Spruce Budworm in Range-Wide Decline of Canada Warbler

ABSTRACT The Canada warbler (Wilsonia canadensis) is one of many common neotropical migrants whose populations are in decline across their range. Influences of habitat loss and degradation on breeding or wintering grounds have been postulated as possible causes, but few empirical data exist to support a specific cause. Based on previous studies linking abundances of Canada warbler and spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), we hypothesized that the Canada warbler may be influenced by a persistent decline in spruce budworm throughout the bird's breeding range, a hypothesis that has received little attention. This hypothesis makes 5 predictions: 1) budworm outbreaks and warbler detections should be spatially and temporally coincident; 2) the relationship between Canada warbler and spruce budworm outbreaks should be similar to relationships for other warblers known to be spruce budworm associates; 3) the relationship should be stronger than for warblers lacking an association with spruce budworm; 4) because temporal trends of both spruce budworm and Canada warblers have varied throughout Canadian provinces, declines in Canada warblers should be seen only in provinces where spruce budworm also declined; and 5) variation in Canada warbler abundance should reflect variation in supply of preferred habitat for the spruce budworm if habitat rather than budworm abundance is the key. Our analyses supported predictions 1–4, suggesting that Canada warbler may be even more closely associated with spruce budworm than are known associated species, a phenomenon noted in the literature but previously unexplained. Prediction 5 was not supported, because budworm habitat (area of mature and older balsam fir [Abies balsamea] and white spruce [Picea glauca]) remained constant in Ontario while warbler abundance declined. Although the correlative nature of these results precludes inference of a causal relationship between the declines of the Canada warbler and spruce budworm, we postulate that potential links may exist directly, where spruce budworm outbreaks provide elevated levels of insect prey items for breeding Canada warblers, or indirectly through changes in forest structure and composition following outbreaks. These results have implications when considering long-term trends in Canada warbler populations, because it may be impossible to alter population trends for species linked to the timing and magnitude of spruce budworm outbreaks.     

Impact of balsam fir flowering on pollen and foliage biochemistry in relation to spruce budworm growth, development and food utilization

The impact of balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Miller) flowering on nutritional and allelochemical quality of pollen, current-year and one-year-old foliage is studied in relation to spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) growth, development and utilization of food and nitrogen. In the laboratory, using fresh food from the field, we simulated conditions of low larval population density, in which there is no current-year foliage depletion during the spruce budworm feeding period. Similarly, we simulated conditions of high larval population density when current-year foliage depletion occurs.Because of the high nutritive value of pollen (high amounts of amino acids and minerals, especially nitrogen; low monoterpene content), insects from flowering trees reached the fifth instar five days earlier than those from non-flowering trees, and had heavier dry- and nitrogen-weights at the beginning of the fifth instar. At budbreak, switching from pollen to current-year foliage negatively affected conversion efficiencies and digestibilities of food and nitrogen (AD; ADN; ECDN; ECI; ECIN). The switch from pollen to new foliage had a detrimental impact on fifth-instar survival and on newly-moulted sixth-instar dry- and nitrogen-weights. Moreover, during the fifth instar, balsam fir flowering reduced the nutritive value of current-year foliage, which in turn, might have contributed to the reduced larval growth. Nevertheless, during the sixth instar, balsam fir flowering affected the biochemistry of current-year foliage in ways that enabled larvae to compensate for their low fifth-instar biological performance; larvae also managed to reach pupal dry weight similar to larvae reared on non-flowering trees. Current-year foliage from flowering trees contained less nitrogen, total soluble sugars and total monoterpenes. Those foliar characteristics enabled larvae to increase food and nitrogen consumption rates (RCR; RNCR), because of lower repellency and/or post-ingestional feedback from monoterpenes.As for current-year foliage, balsam fir flowering reduced nitrogen, total soluble sugar and total monoterpene contents in one-year-old foliage during the sixth-instar feeding period. These characteristics enabled sixth-instar larvae, fed on old foliage from flowering trees, to have high relative food and nitrogen consumption rates (RCR; RNCR). Larvae were also able to reach higher relative growth rates (RGR) and relative nitrogen accumulation rates (RNAR) compared to larvae reared on one-year-old foliage from non-flowering trees. Finally, larvae on flowering trees had pupal dry weight similar to those from non-flowering trees, but reached the adult stage nine days earlier.Regardless the foliage type consumed by spruce budworm larvae during the sixth instar, pollen consumption during early larval stages reduced total development time, and thus exposure time to natural enemies. This phenomenon might increase larval survival. Balsam fir flowering changed the biochemistry of one-year-old and current-year foliages, but did not affect pupal dry weights of larvae reared on flowering trees compared to those reared on non-flowering trees. Thus, at low population density, spruce budworm populations in balsam fir flowering stands might be favoured over those in balsam fir non-flowering stands. In addition, when larvae consumed one-year-old foliage during the entire sixth instar, those on flowering trees are probably favoured over those on non-flowering trees. However, because flowering trees produce less new foliage than non-flowering trees, current-year foliage depletion may occur earlier on flowering trees than on non-flowering trees. Thus, at similar larval population density, larvae on flowering trees might have to feed on one-year-old foliage earlier than those on non-flowering trees. In that case, spruce budworm populations on non-flowering stands would be favoured over those on flowering stands.     

Phenological synchrony between eastern spruce budworm and its host trees increases with warmer temperatures in the boreal forest

Climate change is predicted to alter relationships between trophic levels by changing the phenology of interacting species. We tested whether synchrony between two critical phenological events, budburst of host species and larval emergence from diapause of eastern spruce budworm, increased at warmer temperatures in the boreal forest in northeastern Canada. Budburst was up to 4.6 ± 0.7 days earlier in balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days earlier in black spruce per degree increase in temperature, in naturally occurring microclimates. Larval emergence from diapause did not exhibit a similar response. Instead, larvae emerged once average ambient temperatures reached 10°C, regardless of differences in microclimate. Phenological synchrony increased with warmer microclimates, tightening the relationship between spruce budworm and its host species. Synchrony increased by up to 4.5 ± 0.7 days for balsam fir and up to 2.8 ± 0.8 days for black spruce per degree increase in temperature. Under a warmer climate, defoliation could potentially begin earlier in the season, in which case, damage on the primary host, balsam fir may increase. Black spruce, which escapes severe herbivory because of a 2‐week delay in budburst, would become more suitable as a resource for the spruce budworm. The northern boreal forest could become more vulnerable to outbreaks in the future.     

Why western spruce budworms travel so far for the winter

1. Conifer‐feeding budworms (Choristoneura) hibernate in sheltered locations on their host trees from late summer of 1 year to spring of the next. During this period, they do not feed but rely on sustenance provided in the egg. Overwinter survival is dependent on the rate of consumption of these limited reserves. 2. A process model was developed that quantifies the relationship between the rate of consumption and survival at variable temperatures and exposure times for western spruce budworm. The model supported physiological evidence that warm weather conditions early in the diapause period have a dominant influence on overwinter survival. Output compared favourably with field observations of poorer budworm survival at lower elevations where late‐summer and autumn temperatures were warmer compared to those overwintering at cooler, higher elevations. 3. Field experiments demonstrated these weather‐dependent rates of survival were modulated significantly by the degree of shelter experienced by hibernating budworms. 4. Dissection of whole trees harbouring overwintering western spruce budworms showed a significant portion of the population had travelled a considerable distance from the periphery of the tree canopy where eggs were laid to overwinter successfully on the tree bole where sheltered niches are common. 5. Thus, budworms will travel relatively long distances and risk increased mortality during this dispersal to find adequate shelter to overwinter.     

Intrinsic and extrinsic determinants of mountain pine beetle population growth

1 Mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae populations have large, economically significant outbreaks. Density dependence and environmental variability are expected to have important effects on their dynamics. We analysed time series data from an outbreak in the 1930s to determine the relative importance of population density and environmental variability on local population growth rates.
2 Resource depletion occurred rapidly at the scale of 0.4 ha and population growth rates were strongly density dependent. Annual environmental changes did not have detectable effects on population growth rates, leading to the conclusion that intrinsic processes influenced local population density more than extrinsic factors during this outbreak.
3 Our calculated value of r _max (1.16) does not suggest intrinsically cyclic population dynamics. Our estimate of r _max and density dependence will be useful in developing applied models of mountain pine beetle outbreaks, and the subsequent evaluation of management strategies.     

Host-plant influence on the population ecology of the jack pine budworm, Choristoneura pinus (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)

Abstract.

• 1 Newly-emerged, second-instar jack pine budworm (Choristoneura pinus Freeman) establish spring feeding sites preferentially in the pollen cones of their host tree, Pinus banksiana Lamb.
• 2 Laboratory studies showed that the rate of establishment and survival of jack pine budworm on pollen cones was high throughout the entire spring emergence period of the insect.
• 3 In contrast, the rate of establishment and survival of jack pine budworm on vegetative buds was very poor early in the spring. Vegetative buds were only acceptable as feeding sites to the jack pine budworm for a relatively brief period in late spring.
• 4 Field studies showed that the change in population density of jack pine budworm during the spring emergence stage, as expressed by k-values, was a function of the abundance of pollen cones in the stand. Population reduction was greatest in those stands with the fewest pollen cones.
• 5 Direct measurement of spring dispersal by jack pine budworm showed that dispersal and consequent losses to the budworm population were greatest in stands with the fewest pollen cones.
• 6 We conclude that changes in the density of jack pine budworm are strongly influenced by production of pollen cones in the host stand. Because pollen cone production is related to previous years of defoliation by the jack pine budworm, we propose that pollen cones act as a density-dependent factor governing the density of early-stage jack pine budworm.
• 7 The resulting dynamics are compared to those of other budworm species and used to explain observed regional and temporal patterns of jack pine budworm outbreaks.

     

What changed the demography of an introduced population of an herbivorous lady beetle?

1. The population dynamics of an introduced population of Epilachna niponica (Lewis) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) was investigated for a 7-year period following its introduction to a site outside of its natural range. A population from Asiu Experimental Forest was introduced to Kyoto University Botanical Garden, 10 km south of its natural distribution.
2. Arthropod predation was much lower in the introduced than in the source population. As a result of the lower predation in the Botanical Garden, larvae reached densities five times higher than in the Asiu Forest and host plants were frequently defoliated. Food shortage caused larval deaths from starvation and increased dispersal.
3. The density of the introduced population was much more variable than that of the source population. The variation in population density in both the introduced and source populations is limited by density-dependent reduction in fecundity and female survival. However, variation in the introduced population's density was increased due to host plant defoliation that resulted in overcompensating density-dependent mortality. In years with high larval density plants were defoliated and this increased adult mortality during the prehibernation period. Besides, the density-dependent regulatory mechanisms that produce population stability were weaker in the introduced population than in the source population.     

Insect defoliation modulates influence of climate on the growth of tree species in the boreal mixed forests of eastern Canada

Increasing air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns due to climate change can affect tree growth in boreal forests. Periodic insect outbreaks affect the growth trajectory of trees, making it difficult to quantify the climate signal in growth dynamics at scales longer than a year. We studied climate‐driven growth trends and the influence of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks on these trends by analyzing the basal area increment (BAI) of 2058 trees of Abies balsamea (L.) Mill., Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, Thuja occidentalis L., Populus tremuloides Michx., and Betula papyrifera Marsh, which co‐occurs in the boreal mixedwood forests of western Quebec. We used a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) to analyze species‐specific trends in BAI dynamics from 1967 to 1991. The model relied on tree size, cambial age, degree of spruce budworm defoliation, and seasonal climatic variables. Overall, we observed a decreasing growth rate of the spruce budworm host species, A. balsamea and P. glauca between 1967 and 1991, and an increasing growth rate for the non‐host, P. tremuloides, B. papyrifera, and T. occidentalis. Our results suggest that insect outbreaks may offset growth increases resulting from a warmer climate. The observation warrants the inclusion of the spruce budworm defoliation into models predicting future forest productivity.