Using phylogeographic approaches to analyse the dispersal history,velocity and direction of viral lineages — Application to rabies virus spread in Iran

Recent years have seen the extensive use of phylogeographic approaches to unveil the dispersal history of virus epidemics. Spatially explicit reconstructions of viral spread represent valuable sources of lineage movement data that can be exploited to investigate the impact of underlying environmental layers on the dispersal of pathogens. Here, we performed phylogeographic inference and applied different post hoc approaches to analyse a new and comprehensive data set of viral genomes to elucidate the dispersal history and dynamics of rabies virus (RABV) in Iran, which have remained largely unknown. We first analysed the association between environmental factors and variations in dispersal velocity among lineages. Second, we present, test and apply a new approach to study the link between environmental conditions and the dispersal direction of lineages. The statistical performance (power of detection, false‐positive rate) of this new method was assessed using simulations. We performed phylogeographic analyses of RABV genomes, allowing us to describe the large diversity of RABV in Iran and to confirm the cocirculation of several clades in the country. Overall, we estimate a relatively high lineage dispersal velocity, similar to previous estimates for dog rabies virus spread in northern Africa. Finally, we highlight a tendency for RABV lineages to spread in accessible areas associated with high human population density. Our analytical workflow illustrates how phylogeographic approaches can be used to investigate the impact of environmental factors on several aspects of viral dispersal dynamics.     

Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.     

Revealing the Micro-scale Signature of Endemic Zoonotic Disease Transmission in an African Urban Setting

The development of novel approaches that combine epidemiological and genomic data provides new opportunities to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases and determine the processes responsible for their spread and maintenance. Taking advantage of detailed epidemiological time series and viral sequence data from more than 20 years reported by the National Reference Centre for Rabies of Bangui, the capital city of Central African Republic, we used a combination of mathematical modeling and phylogenetic analysis to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies in domestic dogs as well as the frequency of extinction and introduction events in an African city. We show that although dog rabies virus (RABV) appears to be endemic in Bangui, its epidemiology is in fact shaped by the regular extinction of local chains of transmission coupled with the introduction of new lineages, generating successive waves of spread. Notably, the effective reproduction number during each wave was rarely above the critical value of 1, such that rabies is not self-sustaining in Bangui. In turn, this suggests that rabies at local geographic scales is driven by human-mediated dispersal of RABV among sparsely connected peri-urban and rural areas as opposed to dispersion in a relatively large homogenous urban dog population. This combined epidemiological and genomic approach enables development of a comprehensive framework for understanding disease persistence and informing control measures, indicating that control measures are probably best targeted towards areas neighbouring the city that appear as the source of frequent incursions seeding outbreaks in Bangui.     

Landscape attributes governing local transmission of an endemic zoonosis: Rabies virus in domestic dogs

Landscape heterogeneity plays an important role in disease spread and persistence, but quantifying landscape influences and their scale dependence is challenging. Studies have focused on how environmental features or global transport networks influence pathogen invasion and spread, but their influence on local transmission dynamics that underpin the persistence of endemic diseases remains unexplored. Bayesian phylogeographic frameworks that incorporate spatial heterogeneities are promising tools for analysing linked epidemiological, environmental and genetic data. Here, we extend these methodological approaches to decipher the relative contribution and scale‐dependent effects of landscape influences on the transmission of endemic rabies virus in Serengeti district, Tanzania (area ~4,900 km²). Utilizing detailed epidemiological data and 152 complete viral genomes collected between 2004 and 2013, we show that the localized presence of dogs but not their density is the most important determinant of diffusion, implying that culling will be ineffective for rabies control. Rivers and roads acted as barriers and facilitators to viral spread, respectively, and vaccination impeded diffusion despite variable annual coverage. Notably, we found that landscape effects were scale‐dependent: rivers were barriers and roads facilitators on larger scales, whereas the distribution of dogs was important for rabies dispersal across multiple scales. This nuanced understanding of the spatial processes that underpin rabies transmission can be exploited for targeted control at the scale where it will have the greatest impact. Moreover, this research demonstrates how current phylogeographic frameworks can be adapted to improve our understanding of endemic disease dynamics at different spatial scales.     

Climate-driven spatial dynamics of plague among prairie dog colonies

We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for the joint spatial dynamics of a host-parasite system. The model was fitted to long-term data on regional plague dynamics and metapopulation dynamics of the black-tailed prairie dog, a declining keystone species of North American prairies. The rate of plague transmission between colonies increases with increasing precipitation, while the rate of infection from unknown sources decreases in response to hot weather. The mean annual dispersal distance of plague is about 10 km, and topographic relief reduces the transmission rate. Larger colonies are more likely to become infected, but colony area does not affect the infectiousness of colonies. The results suggest that prairie dog movements do not drive the spread of plague through the landscape. Instead, prairie dogs are useful sentinels of plague epizootics. Simulations suggest that this model can be used for predicting long-term colony and plague dynamics as well as for identifying which colonies are most likely to become infected in a specific year.     

Aerial Dispersal and Multiple-Scale Spread of Epidemic Disease

Disease spread has traditionally been described as a traveling wave of constant velocity. However, aerially dispersed pathogens capable of long-distance dispersal often have dispersal gradients with extended tails that could result in acceleration of the epidemic front. We evaluated empirical data with a simple model of disease spread that incorporates logistic growth in time with an inverse power function for dispersal. The scale invariance of the power law dispersal function implies its applicability at any spatial scale; indeed, the model successfully described epidemics ranging over six orders of magnitude, from experimental field plots to continental-scale epidemics of both plant and animal diseases. The distance traveled by epidemic fronts approximately doubled per unit time, velocity increased linearly with distance (slope ~½), and the exponent of the inverse power law was approximately 2. We found that it also may be possible to scale epidemics to account for initial outbreak focus size and the frequency of susceptible hosts. These relationships improve understanding of the geographic spread of emerging diseases, and facilitate the development of methods for predicting and preventing epidemics of plants, animals, and humans caused by pathogens that are capable of long-distance dispersal.     

Seasonal and Diurnal Patterns of Spore Release Can Significantly Affect the Proportion of Spores Expected to Undergo Long-Distance Dispersal

Many of the fungal pathogens that threaten agricultural and natural systems undergo wind-assisted dispersal. During turbulent wind conditions, long-distance dispersal can occur, and airborne spores are carried over distances greater than the mean. The occurrence of long-distance dispersal is an important ecological process, as it can drastically increase the extent to which pathogen epidemics spread across a landscape, result in rapid transmission of disease to previously uninfected areas, and influence the spatial structure of pathogen populations in fragmented landscapes. Since the timing of spore release determines the wind conditions that prevail over a dispersal event, this timing is likely to affect the probability of long-distance dispersal occurring. Using a Lagrangian stochastic model, we test the effect of seasonal and diurnal variation in the release of spores on wind-assisted dispersal. Spores released during the hottest part of the day are shown to be more likely to undergo long-distance dispersal than those released at other times. Furthermore, interactions are shown to occur between seasonal and diurnal patterns of release. These results have important consequences for further modelling of wind-assisted dispersal and the use of models to predict the spread of fungal pathogens and resulting population and epidemic dynamics.     

The role of long‐distance seed dispersal in the local population dynamics of an invasive plant species

Aim Long‐distance dispersal is important for plant population dynamics at larger spatial scales, but our understanding of this phenomenon is mostly based on computer modelling rather than field data. This paper, by combining field data and a simulation model, quantifies the fraction of the seed of the alien species Heracleum mantegazzianum that needs to disperse over a long distance for successful invasion. Location Central Europe, Czech Republic. Methods To assess the role of random dispersal in long‐term population dynamics of the studied species, we combined longitudinal data covering 50 years of the invasion of this plant from its very start, inferred from a series of aerial photographs of 60‐ha plots, with data on population dynamics at a fine scale of 10‐m² plots. Results A simulation model based on field data indicates that the fraction of seed that is dispersed from source plants not described by the short‐distance dispersal kernel ranges from 0.1 to 7.5% of the total seed set. The fraction of long‐distance dispersed seed that provides the best prediction of the observed spread was significantly negatively correlated with the percentage of habitats suitable for invasion. Main conclusions Our results indicate that the fraction of seeds that needed to be dispersed over long distances to account for the observed invasion dynamics decreased with increasing proportion of invasible habitats, indicating that the spatial pattern of propagule pressure differs in landscapes prone to invasion. Long‐distance dispersal is an important component of the population dynamics of an invasive species even at relatively small scales.     

Comparing short and long‐distance dispersal: modelling and field case studies

Dispersal is a factor of great importance in determining a species spatial distribution. Short distance dispersal (SDD) and long distance dispersal (LDD) strategies yield very different spatial distributions. In this paper we compare spatial spread patterns from SDD and LDD simulations, contrast them with patterns from field data, and assess the significance of biological and population traits. Simulated SDD spread using an exponential function generates a single circular patch with a well‐defined invasion front showing a travelling‐wave structure. The invasive spread is relatively slow as it is restricted to reproductive individuals occupying the outer zone of the circular patch. As a consequence of this dispersal dynamics, spread is slower than spread generated by LDD. In contrast, the early and fast invasion of the entire habitat mediated by power law LDD not only involves a significantly greater invasion velocity, but also an entirely different habitat occupation. As newly dispersed individuals soon reach very distant portions of the habitat as well as the vicinity of the original dispersal focus, new growing patches are generated while the main patch increases its own growth absorbing the closest patches. As a consequence of both dispersal and lower density dependence, growth of the occupied area is much faster than with SDD. SDD and LDD also differ regarding pattern generation. With SDD, fractal patterns appear only in the border of the invasion front in SDD when competitive interaction with residents is included. In contrast, LDD patterns show fractality both in the spatial arrangements of patches as well as in patch borders. Moreover, values of border fractal dimension inform on the dispersal process in relation with habitat heterogeneity. The distribution of patch size is also scale‐free, showing two power laws characteristic of small and large patch sizes directly arising from the dispersal and reproductive dynamics. Ecological factors like habitat heterogeneity are relevant for dispersal, although its importance is greater for SDD, lowering the invasion velocity. Among the life history traits considered, adult mortality, the juvenile bank and mean dispersal distance are the most relevant for SDD. For LDD, habitat heterogeneity and changes in life history traits are not so relevant, causing minor changes in the values of the scale‐free parameters. Our work on short and long distance dispersal shows novel theoretical differences between SDD and LDD in invasive systems (mechanisms of pattern formation, fractal and scaling properties, relevance of different life history traits and habitat variables) that correspond closely with field examples and were not analyzed, at least in this degree of detail, by the previously existing models.     

Spread of plague among black-tailed prairie dogs is associated with colony spatial characteristics

Sylvatic plague (Yersinia pestis) is an exotic pathogen that is highly virulent in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and causes widespread colony losses and individual mortality rates >95%. We investigated colony spatial characteristics that may influence inter-colony transmission of plague at 3 prairie dog colony complexes in the Great Plains. The 4 spatial characteristics we considered include: colony size, Euclidean distance to nearest neighboring colony, colony proximity index, and distance to nearest drainage (dispersal) corridor. We used multi-state mark–recapture models to determine the relationship between these colony characteristics and probability of plague transmission among prairie dog colonies. Annual mapping of colonies and mark–recapture analyses of disease dynamics in natural colonies led to 4 main results: 1) plague outbreaks exhibited high spatial and temporal variation, 2) the site of initiation of epizootic plague may have substantially influenced the subsequent inter-colony spread of plague, 3) the long-term effect of plague on individual colonies differed among sites because of how individuals and colonies were distributed, and 4) colony spatial characteristics were related to the probability of infection at all sites although the relative importance and direction of relationships varied among sites. Our findings suggest that conventional prairie dog conservation management strategies, including promoting large, highly connected colonies, may need to be altered in the presence of plague. © 2011 The Wildlife Society     

Migratory flyway and geographical distance are barriers to the gene flow of influenza virus among North American birds

Despite the importance of migratory birds in the ecology and evolution of avian influenza virus (AIV), there is a lack of information on the patterns of AIV spread at the intra-continental scale. We applied a variety of statistical phylogeographic techniques to a plethora of viral genome sequence data to determine the strength, pattern and determinants of gene flow in AIV sampled from wild birds in North America. These analyses revealed a clear isolation-by-distance of AIV among sampling localities. In addition, we show that phylogeographic models incorporating information on the avian flyway of sampling proved a better fit to the observed sequence data than those specifying homogeneous or random rates of gene flow among localities. In sum, these data strongly suggest that the intra-continental spread of AIV by migratory birds is subject to major ecological barriers, including spatial distance and avian flyway.     

Dispersal of introduced house sparrows Passer domesticus: an experiment

An important issue concerning the introduction of non-indigenous organisms into local populations is the potential of the introduced individuals to spread and interfere both demographically and genetically with the local population. Accordingly, the potential of spatial dispersal among introduced individuals compared with local individuals is a key parameter to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of populations after an introduction event. In addition, if the variance in dispersal rate and distance is linked to individual characteristics, this may further affect the population dynamics. We conducted a large-scale experiment where we introduced 123 house sparrows from a distant population into 18 local populations without changing population density or sex ratio. Introduced individuals dispersed more frequently and over longer distances than residents. Furthermore, females had higher probability of dispersal than males. In females, there was also a positive relationship between the wing length and the probability of dispersal and dispersal distance. These results suggest that the distribution and frequency of introduced individuals may be predicted by their sex ratio as well as their phenotypic characteristics.     

Flexible dispersal strategies in native and non‐native ranges: environmental quality and the ‘good–stay,bad–disperse’ rule

Dispersal strategies are one of the most important determinants of range dynamics and a surrogate for invasiveness. We tested three inter‐related hypotheses derived from demographic and ecological models: (H₁) short‐distance dispersal strategies arise at native range margins due to their demographic advantage; (H₂) in non‐native areas a high diffusion rate is favoured at the advancing range front for niche filling; (H₃) environmental deterioration can increase dispersal and lead to a ‘good–stay, bad–disperse’ strategy. Spatially and temporally explicit rates of spread and dispersal kernels of the European starling Sturnus vulgaris were generated for its native range (Britain) using ringing records from 1909 to 2008, and for a non‐native area (South Africa) using ringing data and distributional records since its introduction in 1897. There was a marked spatial and temporal variation in the rate of spread within both native and non‐native ranges. In the native range the rate of spread declined with increasing distance from the species’ European distribution (contradicting H₁). In the non‐native range the rate of spread increased with distance from the introduction locality (supporting H₂). The annual rate of spread in the native range also increased significantly when environmental conditions were deteriorating as indicated by marked population declines and relatively low abundance (H₃), providing clear evidence for flexible dispersal strategies based on a ‘good–stay, bad–disperse’ rule. Starlings’ dispersal kernel followed an inverse power law and showed strong anisotropy and significant divergence between native and invasive populations, suggesting a flexible strategy comprising a dynamic response to spatial and temporal environmental variation with implications for predicting dispersal and range dynamics arising from environmental change.     

Virus evolution and transmission in an ever more connected world

The frequency and global impact of infectious disease outbreaks, particularly those caused by emerging viruses, demonstrate the need for a better understanding of how spatial ecology and pathogen evolution jointly shape epidemic dynamics. Advances in computational techniques and the increasing availability of genetic and geospatial data are helping to address this problem, particularly when both information sources are combined. Here, we review research at the intersection of evolutionary biology, human geography and epidemiology that is working towards an integrated view of spatial incidence, host mobility and viral genetic diversity. We first discuss how empirical studies have combined viral spatial and genetic data, focusing particularly on the contribution of evolutionary analyses to epidemiology and disease control. Second, we explore the interplay between virus evolution and global dispersal in more depth for two pathogens: human influenza A virus and chikungunya virus. We discuss the opportunities for future research arising from new analyses of human transportation and trade networks, as well as the associated challenges in accessing and sharing relevant spatial and genetic data.     

Complete genome sequence of a street rabies virus isolated from a rabid dog in china

A rabies virus (RABV) was isolated from a dog in Anhui Province, China, in 2008. The virus was designated DRV-AH08. Its entire genome was sequenced and found to be closely related to RABV recently isolated in China and other Asian countries (homology of 87 to 98%) but distantly related to RABV in the "cosmopolitan" group (homology of 84 to 85%) in the clade I of RABV.     

Genetic discontinuities and disequilibria in recently established populations of the plant pathogenic fungus Mycosphaerella fijiensis

Dispersal processes of fungal plant pathogens can be inferred from analysis of spatial genetic structures resulting from recent range expansion. The relative importance of long‐distance dispersal (LDD) events vs. gradual dispersal in shaping population structures depends on the geographical scale considered. The fungus Mycosphaerella fijiensis, pathogenic on banana, is an example of a recent worldwide epidemic. Founder effects in this species were detected at both global and continental scale, suggesting stochastic spread of the disease through LDD events. In this study, we analysed the structure of M. fijiensis populations in two recently (∼1979–1980) colonized areas in Costa Rica and Cameroon. Isolates collected in 10–15 sites distributed along a ∼250‐ to 300‐ km‐long transect in each country were analysed using 19 microsatellite markers. We detected low‐to‐moderate genetic differentiation among populations in both countries and isolation by distance in Cameroon. Combined with historical data, these observations suggest continuous range expansion at the scale of banana‐production area through gradual dispersal of spores. However, both countries displayed specific additional signatures of colonization: a sharp discontinuity in gene frequencies was observed along the Cameroon transect, while the Costa Rican populations seemed not yet to have reached genetic equilibrium. These differences in the genetic characteristics of M. fijiensis populations in two recently colonized areas are discussed in the light of historical data on disease spread and ecological data on landscape features.     

Testing spatiotemporal hypothesis of bacterial evolution using methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus ST239 genome-wide data within a bayesian framework

Staphylococcus aureus is a common cause of infections that has undergone rapid global spread over recent decades. Formal phylogeographic methods have not yet been applied to the molecular epidemiology of bacterial pathogens because the limited genetic diversity of data sets based on individual genes usually results in poor phylogenetic resolution. Here, we investigated a whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data set of health care-associated Methicillin-resistant S. aureus sequence type 239 (HA-MRSA ST239) strains, which we analyzed using Markov spatial models that incorporate geographical sampling distributions. The reconstructed timescale indicated a temporal origin of this strain shortly after the introduction of Methicillin, followed by global pandemic spread. The estimate of the temporal origin was robust to the molecular clock, coalescent prior, full/intergenic/synonymous SNP inclusion, and correction for excluded invariant site patterns. Finally, phylogeographic analyses statistically supported the role of human movement in the global dissemination of HA-MRSA ST239, although it was unable to conclusively resolve the location of the root. This study demonstrates that bacterial genomes can indeed contain sufficient evolutionary information to elucidate the temporal and spatial dynamics of transmission. Future applications of this approach to other bacterial strains may provide valuable epidemiological insights that may justify the cost of genome-wide typing.     

Dispersal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages during the first epidemic wave in New York City

During the first phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, New York City rapidly became the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States. While molecular phylogenetic analyses have previously highlighted multiple introductions and a period of cryptic community transmission within New York City, little is known about the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 within and among its boroughs. We here perform phylogeographic investigations to gain insights into the circulation of viral lineages during the first months of the New York City outbreak. Our analyses describe the dispersal dynamics of viral lineages at the state and city levels, illustrating that peripheral samples likely correspond to distinct dispersal events originating from the main metropolitan city areas. In line with the high prevalence recorded in this area, our results highlight the relatively important role of the borough of Queens as a transmission hub associated with higher local circulation and dispersal of viral lineages toward the surrounding boroughs.     

Recent Emergence and Spread of an Arctic-Related Phylogenetic Lineage of Rabies Virus in Nepal

Rabies is a zoonotic disease that is endemic in many parts of the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia. However its epidemiology remains largely unappreciated in much of these regions, such as in Nepal, where limited information is available about the spatiotemporal dynamics of the main etiological agent, the rabies virus (RABV). In this study, we describe for the first time the phylogenetic diversity and evolution of RABV circulating in Nepal, as well as their geographical relationships within the broader region. A total of 24 new isolates obtained from Nepal and collected from 2003 to 2011 were full-length sequenced for both the nucleoprotein and the glycoprotein genes, and analysed using neighbour-joining and maximum-likelihood phylogenetic methods with representative viruses from all over the world, including new related RABV strains from neighbouring or more distant countries (Afghanistan, Greenland, Iran, Russia and USA). Despite Nepal''s limited land surface and its particular geographical position within the Indian subcontinent, our study revealed the presence of a surprising wide genetic diversity of RABV, with the co-existence of three different phylogenetic groups: an Indian subcontinent clade and two different Arctic-like sub-clades within the Arctic-related clade. This observation suggests at least two independent episodes of rabies introduction from neighbouring countries. In addition, specific phylogenetic and temporal evolution analysis of viruses within the Arctic-related clade has identified a new recently emerged RABV lineage we named as the Arctic-like 3 (AL-3) sub-clade that is already widely spread in Nepal.