A multilocus-multiallele analysis of frequency-dependent selection induced by intraspecific competition

The study of the mechanisms that maintain genetic variation has a long history in population genetics. We analyze a multilocus-multiallele model of frequency- and density-dependent selection in a large randomly mating population. The number of loci and the number of alleles per locus are arbitrary. The n loci are assumed to contribute additively to a quantitative character under stabilizing or directional selection as well as under frequency-dependent selection caused by intraspecific competition. We assume the strength of stabilizing selection to be weak, whereas the strength of frequency dependence may be arbitrary. Density-dependence is induced by population regulation. Our main result is a characterization of the equilibrium structure and its stability properties in terms of all parameters. It turns out that no equilibrium exists with more than two alleles segregating per locus. We give necessary and sufficient conditions on the strength of frequency dependence to ensure the maintenance of multilocus polymorphism. We also give explicit formulas on the number of polymorphic loci maintained at equilibrium. These results are based on the assumption that selection is sufficiently weak compared with recombination, so that linkage equilibrium can be assumed. If additionally the population size is assumed to be constant, we prove that the dynamics of the model form a generalized gradient system. For the model in its general form we are able to derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of the monomorphic equilibria. Furthermore, we briefly analyze a special symmetric two-locus two-allele model for a constant population size but allowing for linkage disequilibrium. Finally, we analyze a single diallelic locus with dominance to illustrate the complications that can occur if the assumption of additivity is relaxed.     

Quantification and decomposition of environment‐selection relationships

In nature, selection varies across time in most environments, but we lack an understanding of how specific ecological changes drive this variation. Ecological factors can alter phenotypic selection coefficients through changes in trait distributions or individual mean fitness, even when the trait‐absolute fitness relationship remains constant. We apply and extend a regression‐based approach in a population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) and suggest metrics of environment‐selection relationships that can be compared across studies. We then introduce a novel method that constructs an environmentally structured fitness function. This allows calculation of full (as in existing approaches) and partial (acting separately through the absolute fitness function slope, mean fitness, and phenotype distribution) sensitivities of selection to an ecological variable. Both approaches show positive overall effects of density on viability selection of lamb mass. However, the second approach demonstrates that this relationship is largely driven by effects of density on mean fitness, rather than on the trait‐fitness relationship slope. If such mechanisms of environmental dependence of selection are common, this could have important implications regarding the frequency of fluctuating selection, and how previous selection inferences relate to longer term evolutionary dynamics.     

Expected relative fitness and the adaptive topography of fluctuating selection

Wright's adaptive topography describes gene frequency evolution as a maximization of mean fitness in a constant environment. I extended this to a fluctuating environment by unifying theories of stochastic demography and fluctuating selection, assuming small or moderate fluctuations in demographic rates with a stationary distribution, and weak selection among the types. The demography of a large population, composed of haploid genotypes at a single locus or normally distributed phenotypes, can then be approximated as a diffusion process and transformed to produce the dynamics of population size, N, and gene frequency, p, or mean phenotype, . The expected evolution of p or is a product of genetic variability and the gradient of the long-run growth rate of the population, , with respect to p or . This shows that the expected evolution maximizes , the mean Malthusian fitness in the average environment minus half the environmental variance in population growth rate. Thus, as a function of p or represents an adaptive topography that, despite environmental fluctuations, does not change with time. The haploid model is dominated by environmental stochasticity, so the expected maximization is not realized. Different constraints on quantitative genetic variability, and stabilizing selection in the average environment, allow evolution of the mean phenotype to undergo a stochastic maximization of . Although the expected evolution maximizes the long-run growth rate of the population, for a genotype or phenotype the long-run growth rate is not a valid measure of fitness in a fluctuating environment. The haploid and quantitative character models both reveal that the expected relative fitness of a type is its Malthusian fitness in the average environment minus the environmental covariance between its growth rate and that of the population.     

A population genetics model for multiple quantitative traits exhibiting pleiotropy and epistasis

We study a population genetics model of an organism with a genome of L(tot)loci that determine the values of T quantitative traits. Each trait is controlled by a subset of L loci assigned randomly from the genome. There is an optimum value for each trait, and stabilizing selection acts on the phenotype as a whole to maintain actual trait values close to their optima. The model contains pleiotropic effects (loci can affect more than one trait) and epistasis in fitness. We use adaptive walk simulations to find high-fitness genotypes and to study the way these genotypes are distributed in sequence space. We then simulate the evolution of haploid and diploid populations on these fitness landscapes and show that the genotypes of populations are able to drift through sequence space despite stabilizing selection on the phenotype. We study the way the rate of drift and the extent of the accessible region of sequence space is affected by mutation rate, selection strength, population size, recombination rate, and the parameters L and T that control the landscape shape. There are three regimes of the model. If LTL(tot), there are many small peaks that can be spread over a wide region of sequence space. Compensatory neutral mutations are important in the population dynamics in this case.     

The estimation of the fitness function from two samples taken from a population

The fitness of animals subjected to natural selection can be defined as the probability of surviving selection for a given interval of time, or some convenient multiple of this probability. If the fitness of animals is related to some quantitative variable X (such as size) then this relationship is expressed mathematically in the fitness function w(x) and this function can be estimated by comparing the distribution of X in samples taken before and after selection. In this note five methods for estimating the fitness function on the basis of samples from a large population are discussed. They are compared on three previously published sets of data and as a result estimation according to weighted multiple regression is recommended.     

A universal scaling law determines time reversibility and steady state of substitutions under selection

Monomorphic loci evolve through a series of substitutions on a fitness landscape. Understanding how mutation, selection, and genetic drift drive this process, and uncovering the structure of the fitness landscape from genomic data are two major goals of evolutionary theory. Population genetics models of the substitution process have traditionally focused on the weak-selection regime, which is accurately described by diffusion theory. Predictions in this regime can be considered universal in the sense that many population models exhibit equivalent behavior in the diffusion limit. However, a growing number of experimental studies suggest that strong selection plays a key role in some systems, and thus there is a need to understand universal properties of models without a priori assumptions about selection strength. Here we study time reversibility in a general substitution model of a monomorphic haploid population. We show that for any time-reversible population model, such as the Moran process, substitution rates obey an exact scaling law. For several other irreversible models, such as the simple Wright-Fisher process and its extensions, the scaling law is accurate up to selection strengths that are well outside the diffusion regime. Time reversibility gives rise to a power-law expression for the steady-state distribution of populations on an arbitrary fitness landscape. The steady-state behavior is dominated by weak selection and is thus adequately described by the diffusion approximation, which guarantees universality of the steady-state formula and its applicability to the problem of reconstructing fitness landscapes from DNA or protein sequence data.     

Convergence of multilocus systems under weak epistasis or weak selection

 The convergence of multilocus systems under viability selection with constant fitnesses is investigated. Generations are discrete and nonoverlapping; the monoecious population mates at random. The number of multiallelic loci, the linkage map, dominance, and epistasis are arbitrary. It is proved that if epistasis or selection is sufficiently weak (and satisfies a certain nondegeneracy assumption whose genericity we establish), then there is always convergence to some equilibrium point. In particular, cycling cannot occur. The behavior of the mean fitness and some other aspects of the dynamics are also analyzed. Received: 15 November 1997 / Revised version: 25 May 1998     

Fluctuating Environments Maintain Genetic Diversity through Neutral Fitness Effects and Balancing Selection

Genetic variation is the raw material upon which selection acts. The majority of environmental conditions change over time and therefore may result in variable selective effects. How temporally fluctuating environments impact the distribution of fitness effects and in turn population diversity is an unresolved question in evolutionary biology. Here, we employed continuous culturing using chemostats to establish environments that switch periodically between different nutrient limitations and compared the dynamics of selection to static conditions. We used the pooled Saccharomyces cerevisiae haploid gene deletion collection as a synthetic model for populations comprising thousands of unique genotypes. Using barcode sequencing, we find that static environments are uniquely characterized by a small number of high-fitness genotypes that rapidly dominate the population leading to dramatic decreases in genetic diversity. By contrast, fluctuating environments are enriched in genotypes with neutral fitness effects and an absence of extreme fitness genotypes contributing to the maintenance of genetic diversity. We also identified a unique class of genotypes whose frequencies oscillate sinusoidally with a period matching the environmental fluctuation. Oscillatory behavior corresponds to large differences in short-term fitness that are not observed across long timescales pointing to the importance of balancing selection in maintaining genetic diversity in fluctuating environments. Our results are consistent with a high degree of environmental specificity in the distribution of fitness effects and the combined effects of reduced and balancing selection in maintaining genetic diversity in the presence of variable selection.     

The cost of habitat selection in prairie voles: an empirical assessment using isodar analysis

The ideal free distribution assumes that habitat selection is without cost and predicts that fitness should be equal in different habitats. If habitat selection has a cost, then individuals should only move to another habitat when potential fitness in the new habitat exceeds that in the source habitat by an amount greater than the cost of habitat selection. We used isodar techniques to assess the cost of habitat selection. In an experimental landscape, we monitored density, movement, and reproductive success of adult female prairie voles, Microtus ochrogaster, in adjacent paired habitats with low and high cover. We tested the following hypotheses: (1) adult female prairie voles exhibited density-dependent habitat selection; (2) the cost of habitat selection was density-independent. Habitat quality based on population density and fitness of adult females was higher in high cover habitats. Net movement was from low cover to high cover habitats. The results indicated that adult female prairie voles exhibited density-dependent habitat selection. Furthermore, there was a significant cost of habitat selection, and the cost was density-independent.     

The conflict between natural and artificial selection in finite populations

Summary A single locus model of the interaction between natural selection and artificial selection for a quantitative character in a finite population, assuming heterozygote superiority in natural fitness but additive action on the character, has been studied using transition probability matrices.If natural selection is strong enough to create a selection plateau in which genetic variance declines relatively slowly, then the total response to artificial selection prior to the plateau will be much less than that expected in the absence of natural selection, and the half-life of response will be shorter. Such a plateau is likely to have a large proportion, if not all, of the original genetic variance still present. In selection programmes using laboratory animals, it seems likely that the homozygote favoured by artificial selection must be very unfit before such a plateau will occur. A significant decrease in population fitness as a result of artificial selection does not necessarily imply that the metric character is an important adaptive character.These implications of this model of natural selection are very similar to those derived by James (1962) for the optimum model of natural selection. In fact, there seems to be no aspect of the observable response to artificial selection that would enable anyone to distinguish between these two models of natural selection.     

Diffusion approximations for one-locus multi-allele kin selection,mutation and random drift in group-structured populations: a unifying approach to selection models in population genetics

Diffusion approximations are ascertained from a two-time-scale argument in the case of a group-structured diploid population with scaled viability parameters depending on the individual genotype and the group type at a single multi-allelic locus under recurrent mutation, and applied to the case of random pairwise interactions within groups. The main step consists in proving global and uniform convergence of the distribution of the group types in an infinite population in the absence of selection and mutation, using a coalescent approach. An inclusive fitness formulation with coefficient of relatedness between a focal individual J affecting the reproductive success of an individual I, defined as the expected fraction of genes in I that are identical by descent to one or more genes in J in a neutral infinite population, given that J is allozygous or autozygous, yields the correct selection drift functions. These are analogous to the selection drift functions obtained with pure viability selection in a population with inbreeding. They give the changes of the allele frequencies in an infinite population without mutation that correspond to the replicator equation with fitness matrix expressed as a linear combination of a symmetric matrix for allozygous individuals and a rank-one matrix for autozygous individuals. In the case of no inbreeding, the mean inclusive fitness is a strict Lyapunov function with respect to this deterministic dynamics. Connections are made between dispersal with exact replacement (proportional dispersal), uniform dispersal, and local extinction and recolonization. The timing of dispersal (before or after selection, before or after mating) is shown to have an effect on group competition and the effective population size. In memory of Sam Karlin.     

Genetic and Statistical Analyses of Strong Selection on Polygenic Traits: What,Me Normal?

We develop a general population genetic framework for analyzing selection on many loci, and apply it to strong truncation and disruptive selection on an additive polygenic trait. We first present statistical methods for analyzing the infinitesimal model, in which offspring breeding values are normally distributed around the mean of the parents, with fixed variance. These show that the usual assumption of a Gaussian distribution of breeding values in the population gives remarkably accurate predictions for the mean and the variance, even when disruptive selection generates substantial deviations from normality. We then set out a general genetic analysis of selection and recombination. The population is represented by multilocus cumulants describing the distribution of haploid genotypes, and selection is described by the relation between mean fitness and these cumulants. We provide exact recursions in terms of generating functions for the effects of selection on non-central moments. The effects of recombination are simply calculated as a weighted sum over all the permutations produced by meiosis. Finally, the new cumulants that describe the next generation are computed from the non-central moments. Although this scheme is applied here in detail only to selection on an additive trait, it is quite general. For arbitrary epistasis and linkage, we describe a consistent infinitesimal limit in which the short-term selection response is dominated by infinitesimal allele frequency changes and linkage disequilibria. Numerical multilocus results show that the standard Gaussian approximation gives accurate predictions for the dynamics of the mean and genetic variance in this limit. Even with intense truncation selection, linkage disequilibria of order three and higher never cause much deviation from normality. Thus, the empirical deviations frequently found between predicted and observed responses to artificial selection are not caused by linkage-disequilibrium-induced departures from normality. Disruptive selection can generate substantial four-way disequilibria, and hence kurtosis; but even then, the Gaussian assumption predicts the variance accurately. In contrast to the apparent simplicity of the infinitesimal limit, data suggest that changes in genetic variance after 10 or more generations of selection are likely to be dominated by allele frequency dynamics that depend on genetic details.     

RAPD and RFLP mapping of the bacterial blight resistance gene xa-13 in rice

Bacterial blight (BB) caused by Xanthomonas oryzae pv oryzae (Xoo) is one of the most serious diseases of rice. The recessive gene xa-13 confers resistance to Philippine race 6 of Xoo. To tag xa-13 with molecular markers, RAPD analysis was conducted with the combined use of near-isogenic lines and bulked segregant analysis. From the survey of 260 arbitrary 10-nucleotide primers, one primer (OPAC05) was detected to amplify specifically a 0.9-kb band from the DNA of susceptible plants. The distance between the RAPD marker OPAC05-900 and xa-13 was estimated to be 5.3 cM. The RAPD marker was then mapped on chromosome 8 using a mapping population of doubled haploid lines derived from the cross of IR64/Azucena. The linkage between RFLP markers and the RAPD marker was analyzed using an F₂ population of 135 plants derived from a cross between a near-isogenic line for xa-13, IR66699-5-5-4-2, and IR24. No recombinants were found between RZ28 and CDO116 and their distance from xa-13 was estimated to be 4.8 cM. RG136 was located at 3.7 cM on the other side of xa-13. The mapping of xa-13 with closely linked DNA markers provides the basis for marker-aided selection for rice improvement.Department of Agronomy, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China     

Evolutionary game dynamics in diploid populations

Selection that influences behaviour can be studied using game theory if individual behavioural success depends on the frequencies of various behavioural types in the population. The evolutionarily stable strategy of J. Maynard Smith and G. R. Price (1973. Nature (London) 246, 15–18) is an equilibrium concept like the solution of a game. The dynamic model of Taylor and Jonker, studied in detail by Zeeman, goes beyond game theory using fitness to cause evolution, perhaps towards an equilibrium. A diploid version of their haploid model is considered and it is found that diploid evolution can be quite different. For example “catastrophic” bifurcations can occur between stable internal polymorphisms when the game matrix entries are changed slowly. A slight drop in food supply may cause extinction. Totally unfit altruistic genotypes can be maintained if they help the rest of the population. The relation of haploid game models to constant selection in diploids is also discussed.     

DELETERIOUS MUTATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF GENETIC LIFE CYCLES

It is often proposed that the ability of diploids to mask deleterious mutations leads to an evolutionary advantage over haploidy. In this paper, we studied the evolution of the relative duration of haploid and diploid phases using a model of recurrent deleterious mutations across the entire genome. We found that a completely diploid life cycle is favored under biologically reasonable conditions, even when prolonging the diploid phase reduces a population's mean fitness. A haploid cycle is favored when there is complete linkage throughout the genome or when mutations are either highly deleterious or partially dominant. These results hold when loci interact multiplicatively and for synergistic epistasis. The strength of selection generated on the life cycle can be substantial because of the cumulative effect of selection against mutations across many loci. We did not find conditions that support cycles that retain both phases, such as those found in some plants and algae. Thus, selection against deleterious mutations may be an important force in the evolution of life cycles but may not be sufficient to explain all the patterns of life cycles seen in nature.     

PHAGE-MEDIATED SELECTION AND THE EVOLUTION AND MAINTENANCE OF RESTRICTION-MODIFICATION

Restriction-modification (R-M) was discovered because it provides bacteria with immunity to phage infection. But, is phage-mediated selection the sole mechanism responsible for the evolution and maintenance of these ubiquitous and multiply evolved systems? In an effort to answer this question, we have performed experiments with laboratory populations of E. coli and phage and computer simulations. We consider two ecological situations whereby phage-mediated selection could favor R-M immunity; i) when bacteria with a novel R-M system invade communities of phage-sensitive bacteria in which there are one or more species of phage, and ii) when bacteria colonize bacterial-free habitats in which phage are present. The results of our experiments indicate that in established communities of bacteria and phage, the advantage R-M provides an invading population of bacteria is ephemeral. Within short order, mutants resistant (refractory) to the phage evolve in the dominant population and subsequently in the invading population. The outcome of competition then depends on the relative fitness of the resistant states of these bacterial clones, rather than R-M. As a consequence of sequential selection for independent mutants, this rapid evolution of resistance occurs even when two and three species of phage are present. While in our experiments resistance also evolved when bacteria colonized new habitats in which phage were present, a novel R-M system greatly augmented the likelihood of their becoming established. We interpret the results of this study as support for the hypothesis that the latter, colonization selection, may play an important role in the evolution and maintenance of restriction-modification. However, we also see these results and other observations we discuss as questioning whether protection against phage is the unique biological role of restriction-modification.     

Limited indirect fitness benefits of male group membership in a lekking species

In group living species, individuals may gain the indirect fitness benefits characterizing kin selection when groups contain close relatives. However, tests of kin selection have primarily focused on cooperatively breeding and eusocial species, whereas its importance in other forms of group living remains to be fully understood. Lekking is a form of grouping where males display on small aggregated territories, which females then visit to mate. As females prefer larger aggregations, territorial males might gain indirect fitness benefits if their presence increases the fitness of close relatives. Previous studies have tested specific predictions of kin selection models using measures such as group‐level relatedness. However, a full understanding of the contribution of kin selection in the evolution of group living requires estimating individuals' indirect fitness benefits across multiple sites and years. Using behavioural and genetic data from the black grouse (Tetrao tetrix), we show that the indirect fitness benefits of group membership were very small because newcomers joined leks containing few close relatives who had limited mating success. Males' indirect fitness benefits were higher in yearlings during increasing population density but marginally changed the variation in male mating success. Kin selection acting through increasing group size is therefore unlikely to contribute substantially to the evolution and maintenance of lekking in this black grouse population.     

Very low levels of direct additive genetic variance in fitness and fitness components in a red squirrel population

A trait must genetically correlate with fitness in order to evolve in response to natural selection, but theory suggests that strong directional selection should erode additive genetic variance in fitness and limit future evolutionary potential. Balancing selection has been proposed as a mechanism that could maintain genetic variance if fitness components trade off with one another and has been invoked to account for empirical observations of higher levels of additive genetic variance in fitness components than would be expected from mutation–selection balance. Here, we used a long‐term study of an individually marked population of North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) to look for evidence of (1) additive genetic variance in lifetime reproductive success and (2) fitness trade‐offs between fitness components, such as male and female fitness or fitness in high‐ and low‐resource environments. “Animal model” analyses of a multigenerational pedigree revealed modest maternal effects on fitness, but very low levels of additive genetic variance in lifetime reproductive success overall as well as fitness measures within each sex and environment. It therefore appears that there are very low levels of direct genetic variance in fitness and fitness components in red squirrels to facilitate contemporary adaptation in this population.