Ten Year Trends in Community HIV Viral Load in Barbados: Implications for Treatment as Prevention

Background

Treatment as prevention is a paradigm in HIV medicine which describes the public health benefit of antiretroviral therapy (ART). It is based on research showing substantial reductions in the risk of HIV transmission in persons with optimally suppressed HIV-1 Viral Loads (VL). The present study describes ten year VL trends at the national HIV treatment unit and estimates VL suppression at a population level in Barbados, a Caribbean island with a population of 277,000, an estimated adult HIV prevalence of 1.2%, and served by a single treatment unit.

Methods

The national HIV treatment centre of the Barbados Ministry of Health has a client VL database extending back to inception of the clinic in 2002 (n = 1,462 clients, n = 17,067 VL measurements). Optimal VL suppression was defined at a threshold value of ≤200 viral copies/mL.

Results

Analysis of VL trends showed a statistically significant improvement in VL suppression between 2002 to 2011, from 33.6% of clients achieving the 200 copies/mL threshold in 2002 to 70.3% in 2011 (P<0.001). Taking into account the proportion of clients alive and in care and on ART, the known diagnosed HIV population in Barbados, and estimates of unknown HIV infections, this translates into an estimated 26.2% VL suppression at a population level at the end of 2010.

Conclusions

We have demonstrated a significant trend towards optimal VL suppression in clients utilizing the services of the national HIV treatment program in Barbados over a 10-year period. Estimates of VL suppression at a population level are similar to reports in developed countries that applied similar methodologies and this could suggest a public health benefit of ART in minimizing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV. Continued efforts are warranted to extend HIV testing to hidden populations in Barbados and linking infected persons to care earlier in their disease.     

Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis in Nepal: a retrospective cohort study (2000-2010)

Introduction

Post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is a cutaneous complication appearing after treatment of visceral leishmaniasis, and PKDL patients are considered infectious to sand flies and may therefore play a role in the transmission of VL. We estimated the risk and risk factors of PKDL in patients with past VL treatment in south-eastern Nepal.

Methods

Between February and May 2010 we traced all patients who had received VL treatment during 2000–2009 in five high-endemic districts and screened them for PKDL-like skin lesions. Suspected cases were referred to a tertiary care hospital for confirmation by parasitology (slit skin smear (SSS)) and/or histopathology. We calculated the risk of PKDL using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and exact logistic regression for risk factors.

Results

Out of 680 past-treated VL patients, 37(5.4%) presented active skin lesions suspect of PKDL during the survey. Thirty-three of them underwent dermatological assessment, and 16 (2.4%) were ascertained as probable (2) or confirmed (14) PKDL. Survival analysis showed a 1.4% risk of PKDL within 2 years of VL treatment. All 16 had been previously treated with sodium stibogluconate (SSG) for their VL. In 5, treatment had not been completed (≤21 injections). Skin lesions developed after a median time interval of 23 months [interquartile range (IQR) 16–40]. We found a higher PKDL rate (29.4%) in those inadequately treated compared to those who received a full SSG course (2.0%). In the logistic regression model, unsupervised treatment [odds ratio (OR) = 8.58, 95% CI 1.21–374.77], and inadequate SSG treatment for VL in the past (OR = 11.68, 95% CI 2.71–45.47) were significantly associated with PKDL.

Conclusion

The occurrence of PKDL after VL treatment in Nepal is low compared to neighboring countries. Supervised and adequate treatment of VL seems essential to reduce the risk of PKDL development and active surveillance for PKDL is needed.     

Cumulative viral load and virologic decay patterns after antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected subjects influence CD4 recovery and AIDS

Background

The impact of viral load (VL) decay and cumulative VL on CD4 recovery and AIDS after highly-active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is unknown.

Methods and Findings

Three virologic kinetic parameters (first year and overall exponential VL decay constants, and first year VL slope) and cumulative VL during HAART were estimated for 2,278 patients who initiated HAART in the U.S. Military HIV Natural History Study. CD4 and VL trajectories were computed using linear and nonlinear Generalized Estimating Equations models. Multivariate Poisson and linear regression models were used to determine associations of VL parameters with CD4 recovery, adjusted for factors known to correlate with immune recovery. Cumulative VL higher than the sample median was independently associated with an increased risk of AIDS (relative risk 2.38, 95% confidence interval 1.56–3.62, p<0.001). Among patients with VL suppression, first year VL decay and slope were independent predictors of early CD4 recovery (p = 0.001) and overall gain (p<0.05). Despite VL suppression, those with slow decay during the first year of HAART as well as during the entire therapy period (overall), in general, gained less CD4 cells compared to the other subjects (133 vs. 195.4 cells/µL; p = 0.001) even after adjusting for potential confounders.

Conclusions

In a cohort with free access to healthcare, independent of established predictors of AIDS and CD4 recovery during HAART, cumulative VL and virologic decay patterns were associated with AIDS and distinct aspects of CD4 reconstitution.     

HIV Incidence and Risk Factors in Chinese Young Men Who Have Sex with Men—A Prospective Cohort Study

Objectives

To assess HIV incidence and its associated risk factors among young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in urban areas, China.

Design

The study used a prospective cohort study design and standard diagnostic tests.

Methods

A twelve-month prospective cohort study was conducted among YMSM (18–25 years old) in 8 large cities in China. The participants were recruited via snowball sampling. A total of 1102 HIV-negative YMSM completed baseline assessment, 878 YMSM participants completed 6-month follow-up, and 902 completed 12-month follow-up. HIV was screened by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and confirmed with Western Blot. Syphilis was screened via rapid plasma reagent and confirmed by treponema pallidum particle agglutination assay.

Results

78 HIV seroconversions were identified within 1168.4 person-year observations yielding an incidence rate of 6.7 per 100 person-years. HIV seroconversion was associated with non-student status (RR = 2.61, 90% CI = 1.3–5.26), low HIV transmission knowledge (RR = 8.87, 90% CI = 2.16–36.43), and syphilis infection (RR = 5.04, 90% CI = 2.57–9.90).

Conclusions

Incidence of HIV among YMSM is high in urban areas of China. Interventions measures are required to contain the HIV epidemic within this population.     

Men Traveling Away from Home Are More Likely to Bring Malaria into High Altitude Villages,Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Information about malaria risk factors at high altitudes is scanty. Understanding the risk factors that determine the risk of malaria transmission at high altitude villages is important to facilitate implementing sustainable malaria control and prevention programs.

Methods

An unmatched case control study was conducted among patients seeking treatment at health centers in high altitude areas. Either microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests were used to confirm the presence of plasmodium species. A generalized linear model was used to identify the predictors of malaria transmission in high altitude villages.

Results

Males (AOR = 3.11, 95%CI: 2.28, 4.23), and those who traveled away from the home in the previous month (AOR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.56, 2.58) were strongly associated with presence of malaria in high altitude villages. Other significant factors, including agriculture in occupation (AOR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.93), plants used for fencing (AOR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.52) and forests near the house (AOR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.15, 2.47), were found predictors for malaria in high altitude villages.

Conclusion

Travel outside of their home was an important risk of malaria infections acquisition. Targeting males who frequently travel to malarious areas can reduce malaria transmission risks in high altitude areas.     

Visceral Leishmaniasis Relapse in Southern Sudan (1999–2007): A Retrospective Study of Risk Factors and Trends

Background

Risk factors associated with L. donovani visceral leishmaniasis (VL; kala azar) relapse are poorly characterized.

Methods

We investigated patient characteristics and drug regimens associated with VL relapse using data from Médecins Sans Frontières - Holland (MSF) treatment centres in Southern Sudan. We used MSF operational data to investigate trends in VL relapse and associated risk factors.

Results

We obtained data for 8,800 primary VL and 621 relapse VL patients treated between 1999 and 2007. Records of previous treatment for 166 VL relapse patients (26.7%) were compared with 7,924 primary VL patients who had no record of subsequent relapse. Primary VL patients who relapsed had larger spleens on admission (Hackett grade ≥3 vs0, odds ratio (OR) for relapse = 3.62 (95% CI 1.08, 12.12)) and on discharge (Hackett grade ≥3 vs 0, OR = 5.50 (1.84, 16.49)). Age, sex, malnutrition, mobility, and complications of treatment were not associated with risk of relapse, nor was there any trend over time. Treatment with 17-day sodium stibogluconate/paromomycin (SSG/PM) combination therapy vs 30-day SSG monotherapy was associated with increased risk of relapse (OR = 2.08 (1.21, 3.58)) but reduced risk of death (OR = 0.27 (0.20, 0.37)), although these estimates are likely to be residually confounded. MSF operational data showed a crude upward trend in the proportion of VL relapse patients (annual percentage change (APC) = 11.4% (−3.4%, 28.5%)) and a downward trend in deaths (APC = −18.1% (−22.5%, −13.4%)).

Conclusions

Splenomegaly and 17-day SSG/PM vs 30-day SSG were associated with increased risk of VL relapse. The crude upward trend in VL relapses in Southern Sudan may be attributable to improved access to treatment and reduced mortality due to SSG/PM combination therapy.     

A spatial cluster analysis of tractor overturns in Kentucky from 1960 to 2002

Background

Agricultural tractor overturns without rollover protective structures are the leading cause of farm fatalities in the United States. To our knowledge, no studies have incorporated the spatial scan statistic in identifying high-risk areas for tractor overturns. The aim of this study was to determine whether tractor overturns cluster in certain parts of Kentucky and identify factors associated with tractor overturns.

Methods

A spatial statistical analysis using Kulldorff''s spatial scan statistic was performed to identify county clusters at greatest risk for tractor overturns. A regression analysis was then performed to identify factors associated with tractor overturns.

Results

The spatial analysis revealed a cluster of higher than expected tractor overturns in four counties in northern Kentucky (RR = 2.55) and 10 counties in eastern Kentucky (RR = 1.97). Higher rates of tractor overturns were associated with steeper average percent slope of pasture land by county (p = 0.0002) and a greater percent of total tractors with less than 40 horsepower by county (p<0.0001).

Conclusions

This study reveals that geographic hotspots of tractor overturns exist in Kentucky and identifies factors associated with overturns. This study provides policymakers a guide to targeted county-level interventions (e.g., roll-over protective structures promotion interventions) with the intention of reducing tractor overturns in the highest risk counties in Kentucky.     

Spatial Analysis Spotlighting Early Childhood Leprosy Transmission in a Hyperendemic Municipality of the Brazilian Amazon Region

Background

More than 200,000 new cases of leprosy were reported by 105 countries in 2011. The disease is a public health problem in Brazil, particularly within high-burden pockets in the Amazon region where leprosy is hyperendemic among children.

Methodology

We applied geographic information systems and spatial analysis to determine the spatio-temporal pattern of leprosy cases in a hyperendemic municipality of the Brazilian Amazon region (Castanhal). Moreover, we performed active surveillance to collect clinical, epidemiological and serological data of the household contacts of people affected by leprosy and school children in the general population. The occurrence of subclinical infection and overt disease among the evaluated individuals was correlated with the spatio-temporal pattern of leprosy.

Principal Findings

The pattern of leprosy cases showed significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity (p<0.01). Considering 499 mapped cases, we found spatial clusters of high and low detection rates and spatial autocorrelation of individual cases at fine spatio-temporal scales. The relative risk of contracting leprosy in one specific cluster with a high detection rate is almost four times the risk in the areas of low detection rate (RR = 3.86; 95% CI = 2.26–6.59; p<0.0001). Eight new cases were detected among 302 evaluated household contacts: two living in areas of clusters of high detection rate and six in hyperendemic census tracts. Of 188 examined students, 134 (71.3%) lived in hyperendemic areas, 120 (63.8%) were dwelling less than 100 meters of at least one reported leprosy case, 125 (66.5%) showed immunological evidence (positive anti-PGL-I IgM titer) of subclinical infection, and 9 (4.8%) were diagnosed with leprosy (8 within 200 meters of a case living in the same area).

Conclusions/Significance

Spatial analysis provided a better understanding of the high rate of early childhood leprosy transmission in this region. These findings can be applied to guide leprosy control programs to target intervention to high risk areas.     

Time-Specific Ecologic Niche Models Forecast the Risk of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Dongting Lake District,China, 2005–2010

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005–2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS.     

Interferon-gamma release assay (modified QuantiFERON) as a potential marker of infection for Leishmania donovani, a proof of concept study

Background

In areas endemic for visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a large number of infected individuals mount a protective cellular immune response and remain asymptomatic carriers. We propose an interferon-gamma release assay (IFN-γRA) as a novel marker for latent L. donovani infection.

Methods and Findings

We modified a commercial kit (QuantiFERON) evaluating five different leishmania-specific antigens; H2B, H2B-PSA2, H2B-Lepp12, crude soluble antigen (CSA) and soluble leishmania antigen (SLA) from L. donovani with the aim to detect the cell-mediated immune response in VL. We evaluated the assay on venous blood samples of active VL patients (n = 13), cured VL patients (n = 15), non-endemic healthy controls (n = 11) and healthy endemic controls (n = 19). The assay based on SLA had a sensitivity of 80% (95% CI = 54.81–92.95) and specificity of 100% (95% CI = 74.12–100).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that a whole-blood SLA-based QuantiFERON assay can be used to measure the cell-mediated immune response in L. donovani infection. The positive IFN-γ response to stimulation with leishmania antigen in patients with active VL was contradictory to the conventional finding of a non-proliferative antigen-specific response of peripheral blood mononuclear cells and needs further research.     

Epidemiologic aspects of an emerging focus of visceral leishmaniasis in Tbilisi, Georgia

Background

Over the last 15 years, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has emerged as a public health concern in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Seroepidemiological surveys were conducted to determine the prevalence and incidence of infection in children and dogs within the main focus of VL, and to identify risk factors associated with human infection. Of 4,250 children investigated, 7.3% were positive by direct agglutination test in a baseline survey; an apparent incidence rate of 6.0% was estimated by one year follow-up. None of the seropositive children progressed to VL during the survey. Increased seropositivity at one year was predicted by presence at baseline of clustered flying insects (OR = 1.49; P = 0.001), perceived satisfactory sanitation (OR = 1.65; P<0.001), stray dogs (OR = 1.33; P = 0.023), and by persistent fever during the 6 months prior to baseline survey (OR = 14.2; P<0.001). Overall, 18.2% (107/588) of domestic and 15.3% (110/718) of stray dogs were seropositive by the rk39 dipstick test. Clinical VL signs were found in 1.3% of domestic and 2.9% of stray, seropositive dogs. Parasites isolated from human and dog samples were identified by PCR and phylogenetic analysis of the Leishmania 70 kDa heat-shock protein (HSP70) gene as Leishmania infantum.

Conclusions/Significance

There is an active focus of L. infantum transmission in Tbilisi with a high prevalence of human and canine infections.     

Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis

Background

Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk.

Methods and Findings

We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks.

Conclusions

Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Passive Smoking Exposure from Partners as a Risk Factor for ER+/PR+ Double Positive Breast Cancer in Never-Smoking Chinese Urban Women: A Hospital-Based Matched Case Control Study

Background

The relationship between passive smoking exposure (PSE) and breast cancer risk is of major interest.

Objective

To evaluate the relationship between PSE from partners and breast cancer risk stratified by hormone-receptor (HR) status in Chinese urban women population.

Design

Hospital-based matched case control study.

Setting

Chinese urban breast cancer patients without current or previous active smoking history in China Medical University 1st Hospital, Liaoning Province, China between Jan 2009 and Nov 2009.

Patients

Each breast cancer patient was matched 1∶1 with healthy controls by gender and age (±2 years) from the same hospital.

Measurements

The authors used unconditional logistic regression analyses to estimate odds ratio for women with PSE from partners and breast cancer risk.

Results

312 pairs were included in the study. Women who endured PSE had significantly increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted OR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.05–2.03; P = 0.027), comparing with unexposed women. Women who exposed to >5 cigarettes/day also had significant increased risk (adjusted OR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.28–3.10; P = 0.002), as were women exposed to passive smoke for 16–25 years (adjusted OR: 1.87 95% CI: 1.22–2.86; P = 0.004), and those exposed to > 4 pack-years (adjusted OR: 1.71 95% CI: 1.17–2.50; P = 0.004). Similar trends were significant for estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) double positive subgroup(adjusted OR: 1.71; 2.20; 1.99; 1.92, respectively), but not for ER+/PR−, ER−/PR+, or ER−/PR− subgroups.

Limitations

limitations of the hospital-based retrospective study, lack of information on entire lifetime PSE and low statistical power.

Conclusions

Our findings provide further evidence that PSE from partners contributes to increased risk of breast cancer, especially for ER/PR double positive breast cancer, in Chinese urban women.     

Prevalence and Correlates of Dental Caries in an Elderly Population in Northeast China

Objectives

The present study aimed to investigate the prevalence and correlates of dental caries in elderly population in northeast China.

Methods

A community-based, cross-sectional study among 2376 elderly subjects (age: 65–74 years) from nine urban areas and nine rural areas in three provinces of northeast China was conducted using multistage stratified random sampling per the World Health Organization oral health survey methodology. Decayed-missing-filled teeth (DMFT) and decayed-filled teeth (DFT) indices were used to evaluate the prevalence of dental caries. Face-to-face questionnaire survey on oral health was performed in a randomly selected subset (n = 1197). T test and chi square test were employed to compare groups for continuous and categorical variables, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

67.5% of elderly subjects reported dental caries (average DFT = 2.68±3.40), and the prevalence was higher in urban areas (P<0.01). Missing teeth accounted for 80.72% of DMFT, and filled teeth due to caries accounted for 2.08% with a rate higher in urban areas (P<0.01). Logistic regression analysis indicated significant association among elderly population in urban areas (OR 1.713; 95% CI 1.337–2.195), smoking (OR 1.779; 95% CI 1.384–2.288), and individuals without dental insurance (OR 2.050; 95% CI 1.120–3.754) with dental caries.

Conclusions

The prevalence of dental caries in the elderly population in northeast China is high. The elderly from urban areas who smoke and who do not have a dental insurance are at a higher risk to develop dental caries.     

Quantifying the emergence of dengue in Hanoi, Vietnam: 1998-2009

Background

An estimated 2.4 billion people live in areas at risk of dengue transmission, therefore the factors determining the establishment of endemic dengue in areas where transmission suitability is marginal is of considerable importance. Hanoi, Vietnam is such an area, and following a large dengue outbreak in 2009, we set out to determine if dengue is emerging in Hanoi.

Methods and Principal Findings

We undertook a temporal and spatial analysis of 25,983 dengue cases notified in Hanoi between 1998 and 2009. Age standardized incidence rates, standardized age of infection, and Standardized Morbidity Ratios (SMR) were calculated. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to determine if dengue incidence was increasing over time. Wavelet analysis was used to explore the periodicity of dengue transmission and the association with climate variables. After excluding the two major outbreak years of 1998 and 2009 and correcting for changes in population age structure, we identified a significant annual increase in the incidence of dengue cases over the period 1999–2008 (incidence rate ratio  = 1.38, 95% confidence interval  = 1.20–1.58, p value  = 0.002). The age of notified dengue cases in Hanoi is high, with a median age of 23 years (mean 26.3 years). After adjusting for changes in population age structure, there was no statistically significant change in the median or mean age of dengue cases over the period studied. Districts in the central, highly urban, area of Hanoi have the highest incidence of dengue (SMR>3).

Conclusions

Hanoi is a low dengue transmission setting where dengue incidence has been increasing year on year since 1999. This trend needs to be confirmed with serological surveys, followed by studies to determine the underlying drivers of this emergence. Such studies can provide insights into the biological, demographic, and environmental changes associated with vulnerability to the establishment of endemic dengue.     

The Impact of Japan's 2004 Postgraduate Training Program on Intra-Prefectural Distribution of Pediatricians in Japan

Objective

Inequity in physician distribution poses a challenge to many health systems. In Japan, a new postgraduate training program for all new medical graduates was introduced in 2004, and researchers have argued that this program has increased inequalities in physician distribution. We examined the trends in the geographic distribution of pediatricians as well as all physicians from 1996 to 2010 to identify the impact of the launch of the new training program.

Methods

The Gini coefficient was calculated using municipalities as the study unit within each prefecture to assess whether there were significant changes in the intra-prefectural distribution of all physicians and pediatricians before and after the launch of the new training program. The effect of the new program was quantified by estimating the difference in the slope in the time trend of the Gini coefficients before and after 2004 using a linear change-point regression design. We categorized 47 prefectures in Japan into two groups: 1) predominantly urban and 2) others by the definition from OECD to conduct stratified analyses by urban-rural status.

Results

The trends in physician distribution worsened after 2004 for all physicians (p value<.0001) and pediatricians (p value = 0.0057). For all physicians, the trends worsened after 2004 both in predominantly urban prefectures (p value = 0.0012) and others (p value<0.0001), whereas, for pediatricians, the distribution worsened in others (p value = 0.0343), but not in predominantly urban prefectures (p value = 0.0584).

Conclusion

The intra-prefectural distribution of physicians worsened after the launch of the new training program, which may reflect the impact of the new postgraduate program. In pediatrics, changes in the Gini trend differed significantly before and after the launch of the new training program in others, but not in predominantly urban prefectures. Further observation is needed to explore how this difference in trends affects the health status of the child population.     

The Spatial Analysis on Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiangsu Province,China Based on Geographic Information System

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is endemic in mainland China, accounting for 90% of total reported cases worldwide, and Jiangsu is one of the most severely affected provinces. In this study, the authors conducted GIS-based spatial analyses in order to determine the spatial distribution of the HFRS cases, identify key areas and explore risk factors for public health planning and resource allocation.

Methods

Interpolation maps by inverse distance weighting were produced to detect the spatial distribution of HFRS cases in Jiangsu from 2001 to 2011. Spatio-temporal clustering was applied to identify clusters at the county level. Spatial correlation analysis was conducted to detect influencing factors of HFRS in Jiangsu.

Results

HFRS cases in Jiangsu from 2001 to 2011 were mapped and the results suggested that cases in Jiangsu were not distributed randomly. Cases were mainly distributed in northeastern and southwestern Jiangsu, especially in Dafeng and Sihong counties. It was notable that prior to this study, Sihong county had rarely been reported as a high-risk area of HFRS. With the maximum spatial size of 50% of the total population and the maximum temporal size of 50% of the total population, spatio-temporal clustering showed that there was one most likely cluster (LLR = 624.52, P<0.0001, RR = 8.19) and one second-most likely cluster (LLR = 553.97, P<0.0001, RR = 8.25), and both of these clusters appeared from 2001 to 2004. Spatial correlation analysis showed that the incidence of HFRS in Jiangsu was influenced by distances to highways, railways, rivers and lakes.

Conclusion

The application of GIS together with spatial interpolation, spatio-temporal clustering and spatial correlation analysis can effectively identify high-risk areas and factors influencing HFRS incidence to lay a foundation for researching its pathogenesis.     

Serotonin transporter polymorphism modulates N-back task performance and fMRI BOLD signal intensity in healthy women

Context

Exploring intermediate phenotypes within the human brain''s functional and structural circuitry is a promising approach to explain the relative contributions of genetics, complex behaviors and neural mechanisms in the development of major depressive disorder (MDD). The polymorphic region 5-HTTLPR in the serotonin transporter gene (SLC6A4) has been shown to modulate MDD risk, but the neural underpinnings are incompletely understood.

Objective

37 right handed healthy women between 21 and 61 years of age were invited to participate in an fMRI modified n-back study. The functional polymorphism 5-HTTLPR located in the promoter region of the SLC6A4 gene was genotyped using polymerase chain reaction (PCR).

Results

Short 5-HTTLPR allele carriers showed more blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) bilateral prefrontal cortex activation in the right [F(2, 30) = 4.8, η² = .25, p = .026] and left [F(2, 30) = 4.1, η² = .22, p = .015] inferior frontal gyrus pars triangularis with increasing n-back task difficulty relative to long 5-HTTLPR allele carriers. Short 5-HTTLPR allele carriers had inferior task performance on the most difficult n-back condition [F(2, 30) = 4.9, η² = .26, p = .014].

Conclusions

This activation pattern found in healthy at risk individuals resembles an activation pattern that is typically found in patients suffering from acute MDD. Altered function in these areas may reflect intermediate phenotypes and may help explain the increased risk of depression in short 5-HTTLPR allele carriers.     

Risk Factors for Visceral Leishmaniasis Relapse in Immunocompetent Patients following Treatment with 20 mg/kg Liposomal Amphotericin B (Ambisome) in Bihar,India

Background

A proportion of all immunocompetent patients treated for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) are known to relapse; however, the risk factors for relapse are not well understood. With the support of the Rajendra Memorial Research Institute (RMRI), Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) implemented a program in Bihar, India, using intravenous liposomal amphotericin B (Ambisome) as a first-line treatment for VL. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for VL relapse by examining the characteristics of immunocompetent patients who relapsed following this regimen.

Methods and Principal Findings

This is an observational retrospective cohort study of all VL patients treated by the MSF program from July 2007 to August 2012. Intravenous Ambisome was administered to 8749 patients with VL in four doses of 5 mg/kg (for a total dose of 20 mg/kg) over 4–10 days, depending on the severity of disease. Out of 8588 patients not known to be HIV-positive, 8537 (99.4%) were discharged as initial cures, 24 (0.3%) defaulted, and 27 (0.3%) died during or immediately after treatment. In total, 1.4% (n = 119) of the initial cured patients re-attended the programme with parasitologically confirmed VL relapse, with a median time to relapse of 10.1 months. Male sex, age <5 years and ≥45 years, a decrease in spleen size at time of discharge of ≤0.5 cm/day, and a shorter duration of symptoms prior to seeking treatment were significantly associated with relapse. Spleen size at admission, hemoglobin level, nutritional status, and previous history of relapse were not associated with relapse.

Conclusions

This is the largest cohort of VL patients treated with Ambisome worldwide. The risk factors for relapse included male sex, age <5 and ≥45 years, a smaller decrease in splenomegaly at discharge, and a shorter duration of symptoms prior to seeking treatment. The majority of relapses in this cohort occurred 6–12 months following treatment, suggesting that a 1-year follow-up is appropriate in future studies.     

A field trial of alternative targeted screening strategies for Chagas disease in Arequipa, Peru

Background

Chagas disease is endemic in the rural areas of southern Peru and a growing urban problem in the regional capital of Arequipa, population ∼860,000. It is unclear how to implement cost-effective screening programs across a large urban and periurban environment.

Methods

We compared four alternative screening strategies in 18 periurban communities, testing individuals in houses with 1) infected vectors; 2) high vector densities; 3) low vector densities; and 4) no vectors. Vector data were obtained from routine Ministry of Health insecticide application campaigns. We performed ring case detection (radius of 15 m) around seropositive individuals, and collected data on costs of implementation for each strategy.

Results

Infection was detected in 21 of 923 (2.28%) participants. Cases had lived more time on average in rural places than non-cases (7.20 years versus 3.31 years, respectively). Significant risk factors on univariate logistic regression for infection were age (OR 1.02; p = 0.041), time lived in a rural location (OR 1.04; p = 0.022), and time lived in an infested area (OR 1.04; p = 0.008). No multivariate model with these variables fit the data better than a simple model including only the time lived in an area with triatomine bugs. There was no significant difference in prevalence across the screening strategies; however a self-assessment of disease risk may have biased participation, inflating prevalence among residents of houses where no infestation was detected. Testing houses with infected-vectors was least expensive. Ring case detection yielded four secondary cases in only one community, possibly due to vector-borne transmission in this community, apparently absent in the others.

Conclusions

Targeted screening for urban Chagas disease is promising in areas with ongoing vector-borne transmission; however, these pockets of epidemic transmission remain difficult to detect a priori. The flexibility to adapt to the epidemiology that emerges during screening is key to an efficient case detection intervention. In heterogeneous urban environments, self-assessments of risk and simple residence history questionnaires may be useful to identify those at highest risk for Chagas disease to guide diagnostic efforts.