基于多智能体与元胞自动机的上海城市扩展动态模拟

利用元胞自动机模型和多智能体模型相结合的方法,在GIS技术手段的支持下构建了一个能够兼顾两种模型优点的城市扩展动态模型,并以上海市为实证对象,模拟了上海市2005年的城市扩展动态,分别预测了2010年和2020年上海城市扩展的动态演化结果。在元胞自动机模型中定义城市系统中的各种自然、社会和交通等要素,在智能体模型中定义政府和居民智能体的行为。模型将二者结合起来,模拟上海中心城区、城郊区及外围区的城市用地扩展模式。对模型模拟的上海2005年土地利用状态和实际土地利用状态进行验证,Kappa系数的平均值达到0.75以上,说明模型具有较高的可信度。对预测出2010年和2020年上海市土地利用状态分析表明,城镇用地以向东部和南部扩张最为明显。     

生态脆弱区农村居民点布局优化对区域生态系统服务功能的影响——以四川省西昌市为例

我国是世界上生态脆弱区分布面积最大、类型最多、脆弱性表现最明显的国家之一。农村居民点作为生态脆弱区中主要人类活动区,成为导致生态脆弱区生态环境质量下降的重要干扰源。以四川省西昌市为例,分别利用InVEST模型中的生境质量评估模块、沉积物持留率分析模块、养分输出率分析模块评估了生态脆弱区农村居民点布局优化对区域生态系统服务功能的影响。研究结果表明：西昌市通过农村居民点布局优化,生境质量平均得分提高22.4%,土壤输出量下降4.6%,氮(N)、磷(P)输出量下降13.1%与8.2%,所以农村居民点布局优化有利于生态环境脆弱区生态系统服务功能的提升。农村居民点布局优化后,农村居民点数量与面积的减少,降低了森林火灾、土地开垦等植被破坏事件发生的频次,成为促使西昌市生境质量提升的主要原因;而农村居民点与农田面积下降,林地面积的增加是导致西昌市土壤输出量与N、P输出量下降的主要原因。农村居民点数量减少,可降低垃圾回收成本与污水处理成本,从而促使 N、P输出量进一步下降。     

基于RS与GIS的农村居民点空间变化特征与景观格局影响研究

农村居民点作为乡村地域空间人口聚居形态,是乡村聚落景观重要组成部分,其空间布局、演变特征受自然、社会、经济多重因素的影响。利用都江堰市2005年和2010年两期遥感影像提取农村居民点、坡度、道路、河流等矢量数据,借助RS、GIS空间分析技术,定量研究都江堰市农村居民点的空间变化过程、格局和趋势,并选取景观格局指数对影响农村居民点布局特征的因素进行深入分析。结果表明:(1)2005年和2010年都江堰市农村居民点的空间分布总体上均表现出显著的聚集趋势,2010年农村居民点的聚集程度要比2005年高,但居民点集聚的空间态势没有发生明显变化,仍然集中在都江堰市的东南部;(2)坡度、道路和河流对都江堰市农村居民点的布局有显著影响,其中超过80%的居民点分布在0—10°坡度范围内,超过50%的居民点分布在道路500 m范围内,近60%居民点分布在河流1000 m范围内;(3)农村居民点空间布局除了受地形因素影响外,还与国家级风景名胜区、世界文化遗产区等保护政策,农村土地综合整治和灾后重建等规划因素密切相关。该研究以期为农村居民点动态变化监测、农村土地整理效果评价、新农村规划等理论和实践提供重要决策参考和技术支撑。     

Embedding ecological sensitivity analysis and new satellite town construction in an agent-based model to simulate urban expansion in the beijing metropolitan region,China

As the national center for politics and culture, Beijing’s urbanization level is very high. Many policies within the proposed Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region coordinated development plan affect the expansion of urban land. Therefore, it is very important to predict urban land use changes in Beijing for planning and management purposes. In this paper, we integrated of MAS (multi-agent system) and CA (cellular automata) to simulate new satellite towns construction and ecological sensitivity impact on land use change. Physical and social driving factors were used in the combined model. The MAS involved the actions of three types of agent: regional authorities, property developers, and residents. The study used the CA model to simulate the neighborhood effects of urban land use, and the MAS model to simulate agents’ decisions. The new satellite towns and an ecological sensitivity analysis were embedded in the model to simulate the impact of decision making by the Beijing government on urban land expansion. Based on the land use data of 2005, the urban land area in 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 was predicted using the CA-MAS model. Urban expansion occurred faster during 2015–2025 than during the previous 10 years. Three land use types, i.e., cropland, woodland, and rural residential land, were the major sources of urban expansion. With respect to government decision making, the satellite towns were the priority areas of urban development, and urban development was restricted in ecologically sensitive areas. The New Districts of Urban Development were projected to become the main areas of future urban expansion in Beijing. The area designated for urban expansion around the ecologically sensitive areas was small. The results demonstrate that satellite towns and ecological sensitivity have large impacts on urban expansion. The results of this study will help to protect ecologically sensitive land, while enabling harmonious expansion of the city.     

Assessing the application of a geographic presence-only model for land suitability mapping

Recent advances in ecological modeling have focused on novel methods for characterizing the environment that use presence-only data and machine-learning algorithms to predict the likelihood of species occurrence. These novel methods may have great potential for land suitability applications in the developing world where detailed land cover information is often unavailable or incomplete. This paper assesses the adaptation and application of the presence-only geographic species distribution model, MaxEnt, for agricultural crop suitability mapping in a rural Thailand where lowland paddy rice and upland field crops predominant. To assess this modeling approach, three independent crop presence datasets were used including a social-demographic survey of farm households, a remote sensing classification of land use/land cover, and ground control points, used for geodetic and thematic reference that vary in their geographic distribution and sample size. Disparate environmental data were integrated to characterize environmental settings across Nang Rong District, a region of approximately 1300 sq. km in size. Results indicate that the MaxEnt model is capable of modeling crop suitability for upland and lowland crops, including rice varieties, although model results varied between datasets due to the high sensitivity of the model to the distribution of observed crop locations in geographic and environmental space. Accuracy assessments indicate that model outcomes were influenced by the sample size and the distribution of sample points in geographic and environmental space. The need for further research into accuracy assessments of presence-only models lacking true absence data is discussed. We conclude that the MaxEnt model can provide good estimates of crop suitability, but many areas need to be carefully scrutinized including geographic distribution of input data and assessment methods to ensure realistic modeling results.     

基于分形理论的乡村聚落景观空间特征及演变——以厦门市为例

空间结构和空间形态共同构成乡村聚落景观空间特征,对二者的科学分析是乡村土地利用格局优化的基础.本研究采用分形理论,从全市与分乡镇两个尺度上对厦门市乡村聚落景观空间结构的特征和演变进行定量分析,并提出空间格局优化的相应对策.结果表明: 厦门市乡村聚落景观空间结构与形态的分形特征明显.在全市尺度上,聚集维数、交通网络直通度和空间形态维数随时间变化而增大,而空间关联维数持续减少;乡村聚落景观空间结构呈多中心聚集态分布,交通网络通达性变好,空间结构自组织不断优化,而乡村聚落景观空间形态日趋复杂,空间呈扩展的趋势.在分乡镇尺度上,乡村聚落景观空间特征差异显著,空间结构松散、通达性较弱等问题存在于部分乡镇.未来需加强交通等基础设施投入和中心村建设,提高乡村聚落内部各要素的关联度,促使其空间结构优化.本研究结果为优化乡村聚落空间布局、科学编制乡村土地利用规划提供了有力的技术手段和理论支撑.     

Environmental Costs of Government-Sponsored Agrarian Settlements in Brazilian Amazonia

Brazil has presided over the most comprehensive agrarian reform frontier colonization program on Earth, in which ~1.2 million settlers have been translocated by successive governments since the 1970’s, mostly into forested hinterlands of Brazilian Amazonia. These settlements encompass 5.3% of this ~5 million km² region, but have contributed with 13.5% of all land conversion into agropastoral land uses. The Brazilian Federal Agrarian Agency (INCRA) has repeatedly claimed that deforestation in these areas largely predates the sanctioned arrival of new settlers. Here, we quantify rates of natural vegetation conversion across 1911 agrarian settlements allocated to 568 Amazonian counties and compare fire incidence and deforestation rates before and after the official occupation of settlements by migrant farmers. The timing and spatial distribution of deforestation and fires in our analysis provides irrefutable chronological and spatially explicit evidence of agropastoral conversion both inside and immediately outside agrarian settlements over the last decade. Deforestation rates are strongly related to local human population density and road access to regional markets. Agrarian settlements consistently accelerated rates of deforestation and fires, compared to neighboring areas outside settlements, but within the same counties. Relocated smallholders allocated to forest areas undoubtedly operate as pivotal agents of deforestation, and most of the forest clearance occurs in the aftermath of government-induced migration.     

Agent-Based Analysis of Biomass Feedstock Production Dynamics

The success of the bioenergy sector based on lignocellulosic feedstock will require a sustainable and resilient transition from the current agricultural system focused on food crops to one also producing energy crops. The dynamics of this transition are not well understood. It will be driven significantly by the collective participation, behavior, and interaction of various stakeholders such as farmers within the production system. The objective of this work is to study the system dynamics through the development and application of an agent-based model using the theory of complex adaptive systems. Farmers and biorefinery, two key stakeholders in the system, are modeled as independent agents. The decision making of each agent as well as its interaction with other agents is modeled using a set of rules reflecting the economic, social, and personal attributes of the agent. These rules and model parameters are adapted from literature. Regulatory mechanisms such as Biomass Crop Assistance Program are embedded in the decision-making process. The model is then used to simulate the production of Miscanthus as an energy crop in Illinois. Particular focus has been given on understanding the dynamics of Miscanthus adaptation as an agricultural crop and its impact on biorefinery capacity and contractual agreements. Results showed that only 60% of the maximum regional production capacity could be reached, and it took up to 15 years to establish that capacity. A 25% reduction in the land opportunity cost led to a 63% increase in the steady- state productivity. Sensitivity analysis showed that higher initial conversion of land by farmers to grow energy crop led to faster growth in regional productivity.     

社会-生态视角下乡村聚落系统脆弱性评价——以蒙洼行蓄洪区为例

从社会生态视角对乡村聚落系统的脆弱性进行评估,有助于厘清影响乡村聚落发展的因素,建立起应对风险扰动的分析框架,引导乡村可持续发展。以蒙洼行蓄洪区为例,综合运用VSD （Vulnerability Scoping Diagram,VSD）框架、显式空间脆弱性模型（Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability,SERV）模型及贝叶斯网络模型测度区域脆弱性并探究影响脆弱性的主要因素。结果表明：（1）蒙洼地区乡村聚落系统暴露度呈现"两边低、中间高、局部突出"的空间格局特征,镇区周边的乡村聚落敏感性较为突出,同时镇区所在行政村表现出良好的适应力,而乡村聚落系统总体脆弱性较高且高低值差异较大,空间格局呈不均衡分布态势,且结构性差异特征显著。（2）采用定性定量相结合的方法将脆弱区划分为中低脆弱区、敏感-适应型高脆弱区和敏感型高脆弱区三种类型,基于贝叶斯网络分析高脆弱区的影响因素。蒙洼地区乡村聚落以高脆弱区类型居多,其中敏感-适应型高脆弱区主要位于蒙洼地区北部和中部,灾害防控因子对乡村聚落振兴概率的作用最为显著,其建设开发活动受自然环境条件限制较多,因而不宜展开乡村聚落布局,应划为生态保护空间,开展渐进式移民搬迁;而敏感型高脆弱区主要位于蒙洼地区南部河谷地带,建设发展基础相对良好,地形地貌因子对乡村振兴概率的影响最大,为避免该地区乡村衰退的态势加剧,应严格控制人口数量、经济规模和生产方式,尽可能平衡发展与保护之间的矛盾。     

青藏高原生态屏障区生活垃圾治理生态环境风险及应对路径——以青海省为例

生活垃圾治理失效导致的污染胁迫已成为青藏高原生态安全屏障建设面临的突出威胁,精准评估城乡生活垃圾治理的生态环境风险并科学制定应对路径,对改善人居环境品质、筑牢生态安全屏障具有重要意义。以青海省4306个居民点为研究对象,在定量测度城乡各类生活垃圾的产生量及其治理水平基础上,从生活垃圾治理体系的收集、转运与处理全过程视角,综合考虑危险度、暴露度、脆弱度因子构建生态环境风险评价指标体系,应用基于主客观综合赋权的TOPSIS方法和风险管控障碍度评价方法,多尺度评价生活垃圾治理生态环境风险并识别管控阻滞因子。结果显示：青海省城乡生活垃圾产生呈整体分散、局部组团式集中分布特征,全省生活垃圾集中治理率仅62.33%;全省生活垃圾治理的生态环境风险总体处于中风险等级,属于中高风险及高风险等级的居民点占36.90%,且河湟谷地区向柴达木盆地区、环青海湖及祁连山地区和青南高原地区呈风险递增;现行生活垃圾治理体系在镇级转运环节的生态环境风险最高,在祁连山脉、昆仑山脉东段以及青南高原峡谷地带转运风险突出;自然地理环境高寒性、分散式垃圾处理技术滞后性是风险管控的主要阻滞因子。建议以生活垃圾全处置和生态环境零胁...     

西双版纳自然保护区勐养片土地利用模式研究

在应用农村快速评估法和参与性农村评估法调查现存土地利用方式的基础上,区分出生态旅游、农场种植园和乡村农业等3种基本的土地利用模式.乡村农业土地利用又分为传统模式、粮作模式、多种经营模式和产销协作模式.对比分析表明,土地利用模式是自然环境多样性和文化传统多样性综合作用的结果,从乡村农业土地利用的传统模式到生态旅游,是研究区特定生态环境条件下土地利用趋同发展的不同阶段.土地利用模式的变化从根本上减少了农业用地和提高土地产出效率,促进了地区生物多样性保护和社会经济可持续发展,也有利于宏扬优秀传统.     

Genetic analysis of an introduced biological control agent reveals temporal and geographic change,with little evidence of a host mediated shift

The evolution of introduced biological control agents is largely un-explored. Although much is theorized, there is little empirical evidence quantifying the evolutionary dynamics of a biocontrol agent after release into a new environment. In this study we use Diachasmimorpha tryoni, a purposefully introduced biocontrol agent of Ceratitis capitata, to model and quantify spatial, temporal, and host-related evolutionary patterns. This parasitoid has undergone a host shift in its introduced environment, Hawaii, to the gall forming weed biocontrol agent, Eutreta xanthochaeta, an interaction likely mediated by competition for C. capitata with the egg-larval parasitoid Fopius arisanus. To elucidate potential evolutionary patterns we analyzed microsatellites and sequence data extracted from Hawaii and Australian population clusters defined by Structure, in Genepop, Canoco, and IBDWS. Our analysis revealed structuring of Hawaiian D. tryoni populations as defined by significant historic influences related to temporal structure, geographic space, host guild, and augmentative releases. The host-shift parasitoids were not genetically distinct from other Hawaii populations. There were small changes in microsatellite DNA at the population level, but only between Australia and Hawaii populations, not at the host level. These results show that D. tryoni has not undergone host-mediated evolution since introduction to Hawaii, despite the fact that they have expanded their host range in Hawaii to include the gall-forming E. xanthochaeta. To our knowledge this is the first study to quantify genetic differentiation of a biological control agent over geographic space and time using contemporary and museum specimens.     

高寒山地生态脆弱区聚落空间格局特征及成因识别——以天祝藏族自治县为例

自然环境复杂多样是山区聚落空间差异性和异质性的主要原因,对聚落空间治理及可持续发展具有深刻影响。采用天祝县2018年土地变更调查数据,利用空间"热点"探测、最小累积阻力值模型（MCR）和二元Logistic回归等方法,对聚落空间分布格局及其形成因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）聚落分布整体表现为集聚型,空间上呈现出"东南高、西北低"的格局。（2）核密度估计值东南高、西北低,形成"东南密集型"和"西北稀疏型"2个典型分布区,呈现出"核心-边缘"结构;同时,聚落规模空间"热点"探测显示,聚落形态具有显著的空间差异性,华藏寺镇表现为高密度大斑块,其他乡镇表现为中低密度小斑块。（3）聚落斑块平均密度对分组分析结果作用显著,聚落类型由中低密度斑块主导,受高寒气候区分布范围较广的影响,高寒区稀疏型聚落覆盖范围较大。（4）通过聚落空间格局影响因素统计分析和Logistic回归分析,定量识别出：地形条件、土地资源配置和降水条件对聚落分布疏密程度作用最显著,交通禀赋和交通可达性对县域聚落格局优化具有重要作用。     

Land cover change or land‐use intensification: simulating land system change with a global‐scale land change model

Land‐use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land‐use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land systems that are characterized by their land cover mosaic, the agricultural management intensity, and livestock. Land system changes are simulated by the model, driven by regional demand for goods and influenced by local factors that either constrain or promote land system conversion. A characteristic of the new model is the endogenous simulation of intensification of agricultural management versus expansion of arable land, and urban versus rural settlements expansion based on land availability in the neighborhood of the location. Model results for the OECD Environmental Outlook scenario show that allocation of increased agricultural production by either management intensification or area expansion varies both among and within world regions, providing useful insight into the land sparing versus land sharing debate. The land system approach allows the inclusion of different types of demand for goods and services from the land system as a driving factor of land system change. Simulation results are compared to observed changes over the 1970–2000 period and projections of other global and regional land change models.     

基于元胞自动机的喀斯特石漠化格局模拟研究

西南喀斯特山区的石漠化问题是目前我国西部地区最为突出的地域环境问题之一,其迅速发展已经严重影响到当地人们的生产生活。以导致石漠化发生发展的自然、人文因子为切入点,通过模拟影响喀斯特系统地表覆被变化的基本生态过程(如植物定居、植物死亡、水蚀风蚀引起的土地退化以及岩石成土过程等),利用随机元胞自动机具有的简单邻域规则产生复杂空间格局的特点,使喀斯特系统地表覆被植被-裸土-裸岩状态在一定概率下发生状态转换,并结合RS和GIS技术,构建了简单、有效的喀斯特石漠化模拟及预测模型(KarstCA)。以典型喀斯特石漠化地区关岭县为研究区,在自然、人文驱动因素共同影响以及只考虑自然驱动因素情景下,KarstCA模型模拟的研究区2007年石漠化空间分布格局的差异主要分布在中部和南部,其主要是不同空间范围上人类活动作用方式和强度差异所致。在16a中(1992—2007年)喀斯特地区地物(植被-裸土-裸岩)丰度变化成非线性关系,当植被覆达到54%以上并继续增加时,裸岩发展趋势与之呈明显的负相关(P<0.01)。在模拟期内人类活动对研究区石漠化的发展起到抑制作用,人类活动的正效应(植树造林等)与负效应(乱砍滥伐、过度放牧等)在一定程度上抵消了植被总面积的剧烈变化趋势。将地表过程耦合进元胞自动机模型,突破了以往该类研究只通过概率考虑状态转换,而对其机理认识的不足;同时本研究考虑了自然、人文驱动因素在不同空间尺度上作用于石漠化现象的复杂性,对于探索这些因素是如何作用于地表过程及其贡献率等研究具有一定的参考价值。     

Population and Land Use Effects on Malaria Prevalence in the Southern Brazilian Amazon

Malaria prevalence has been one of the most dramatic outcomes of the occupation of the Brazilian Amazon as exemplified by Northern Mato Grosso, one of the areas of highest malaria prevalence in the Americas in the early 1990s. This paper associates the dynamicsof high malaria prevalence in Northern Mato Grosso with three land uses—small-scalegold mining (garimpos), agricultural colonization/cattle ranching (rural), and urban activities—and their related population characteristics, which constitute riskprofiles. Furthermore, spatial proximity and population mobility between (a) garimpos and new rural settlements and (b) older rural settlements or urban areas are key factors explaining malaria diffusion throughout the region. The paper identifies and characterizes populations at high malaria risk and the effects of land use types on malaria diffusion, providing policymakers with information for regional and local policies to control malaria and minimize its effects on Amazonian populations.     

土地利用变化模拟研究进展

土地利用变化研究经历了近30年的快速发展,学者基于不同建模目标构建出多种土地利用变化模型,实现了从数量模拟到时空格局模拟,从单一模型向多种模型耦合的跨越。当前研究主要在元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)模型和CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent)模型的基础上进行改进,马尔科夫模型、系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)模型、Logistic回归和随机森林等均可计算CA模型和CLUE-S模型中所需的土地利用需求,多标准评价、地理加权回归、多主体模型以及人工神经网络等方法也多被用于CA模型的扩展,而CLUE-S的改进则存在模型本身系列的升级。这些模型广泛应用于各种区域和尺度土地利用变化预测实例研究并研发软件系统和数据集。驱动力分析主要从自然因素与人文因素两方面进行,人文因素是引发土地利用变化的主要因素。在目前的研究中,由于技术手段的限制,仍然存在时空尺度、数据误差、数据整合的不确定性等问题。未来土地利用变化模拟研究应进一步发挥大数据技术优势,推动土地利用变化模拟研究朝向精细化、多元化方向发展。结合生态环境领域实际问题,深挖土地利用变化与其生态环境效应之间的互馈机制,将研究视角从探究人类活动对土地利用变化的影响逐渐转向二者相互作用,最终促进人地关系协调发展。     

三峡库区典型流域聚落变迁的土地利用效应

三峡库区是典型的移民区和生态敏感区,探究其由于聚落变迁所引发的土地利用转移效应对于区域社会经济发展和生态恢复具有重要意义。以库区腹地草堂溪流域为研究对象,基于2000—2018年GOOGLE EARTH高分影像,结合当地自然地理环境和社会经济发展从微观尺度对山区聚落变迁的土地利用效应进行剖析。研究表明:(1)扩张型聚落周边以耕地转为果园为主;衰退型聚落周边土地利用转型主要表现为耕地向果园、有林地转变;自然增长型聚落周边以耕地和灌木林地向有林地,果园转化;消没型聚落周边以耕地,果园转为林草地,撂荒地为主,经济和生态效益均有所提高;且除消没型聚落外,另外3种聚落类型周边土地利用功能逐渐向生产生态功能转变,消没型周边土地利用功能逐渐侧重于生态功能。(2)2000—2010年,聚落变迁劳动力转移是聚落周边用地类型变化的根本因素,政府政策是是造成土地利用转型的直接因素;2010—2018年社会经济发展是土地利用转型的直接驱动因素,而农户生计需求是引发用地类型变化的根本驱动力;(3)聚落的变迁,不仅驱动了土地利用转型而且促使流域内经营主体由农户个体经营向政府、企业为主的经营主体转变。研究结果对于库区生态建设,农户经济发展以及改善人居环境等方面具有一定的积级作用。     

云南边境山区景观生态风险时空演变及其影响因素

探究边境山区景观生态风险时空演变特征,揭示自然与人类活动对景观生态风险的影响,对维护国际生态安全和保障区域生态系统的稳定性具有重要意义。以云南25个边境县为例,采用2000、2010、2020年三期土地利用数据,基于景观格局指数构建了景观生态风险评价模型,并分析了风险的时空演变特征,利用地理探测器测度了自然、可达性和社会经济因素对景观生态风险的影响程度。结果表明：2000—2020年研究区景观类型以林地和耕地为主,林地、草地、湿地、冰川和永久积雪面积减少,耕地、灌木地、裸地、人造地表、水体面积增加。景观生态风险平均值持续上升,在空间上表现出显著的自相关性。研究区以较低生态风险、中等生态风险为主,低生态风险、较低生态风险、高生态风险区面积减少,中等生态风险、较高生态风险区面积增加。年降水量、年均气温、距城镇距离、人口地理集中度指数、人口经济地理集中度不一致指数是影响区域景观生态风险的主要因素,在交互探测中年降水量与年均气温、人口地理集中度指数与人口经济地理集中度不一致指数、年降水量与人口地理集中度指数交互作用对景观生态风险的影响较大。     

Regional variations in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of canola‐derived jet fuel produced in western Canada

This study investigates the life cycle GHG emissions of jet fuel produced via the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway from canola grown in western Canada, with a focus on characterizing regional influences on emissions. We examine the effects of geographic variations in soil type, agricultural inputs, farming practices, and direct land use changes on life cycle GHG emissions. We utilize GREET 2016 but replace default feedstock production inputs with geographically representative data for canola production across eight western Canadian regions (representing 99% of Canada's canola production) and replace the default conversion process with data from a novel process model previously developed in ASPEN in our research group wherein oil extraction is integrated with the HEFA‐based fuel production process. Although canola production inputs and yields vary across the regions, resulting life cycle GHG emissions are similar if effects of land use and land management changes (LMC) are not included; 44–48 g CO₂e/MJ for the eight regions (45%–50% reduction compared to petroleum jet fuel). Results are considerably more variable, 16–58 g CO₂e/MJ, when including effects of land use and LMC directly related to conversion of lands from other uses to canola production (34%–82% reduction compared to petroleum jet fuel). We establish the main sources of emissions in the life cycle of canola jet fuel (N‐fertilizer and related emissions, fuel production), identify that substantially higher emissions may occur when using feedstock sourced from regions where conversion of forested land to cropland had occurred, and identify benefits of less intense tillage practices and increased use of summerfallow land. The methods and findings are relevant in jurisdictions internationally that are incorporating GHG emissions reductions from aviation fuels in a low carbon fuel market or legislating carbon intensity reduction requirements.