Mortality Trends from 2003 to 2009 among Adolescents and Young Adults in Rural Western Kenya Using a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Targeted global efforts to improve survival of young adults need information on mortality trends; contributions from health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) are required.

Methods and Findings

This study aimed to explore changing trends in deaths among adolescents (15–19 years) and young adults (20–24 years), using census and verbal autopsy data in rural western Kenya using a HDSS. Mid-year population estimates were used to generate all-cause mortality rates per 100,000 population by age and gender, by communicable (CD) and non-communicable disease (NCD) causes. Linear trends from 2003 to 2009 were examined. In 2003, all-cause mortality rates of adolescents and young adults were 403 and 1,613 per 100,000 population, respectively, among females; and 217 and 716 per 100,000, respectively, among males. CD mortality rates among females and males 15–24 years were 500 and 191 per 100,000 (relative risk [RR] 2.6; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.7–4.0; p<0.001). NCD mortality rates in same aged females and males were similar (141 and 128 per 100,000, respectively; p = 0.76). By 2009, young adult female all-cause mortality rates fell 53% (χ² for linear trend 30.4; p<0.001) and 61.5% among adolescent females (χ² for linear trend 11.9; p<0.001). No significant CD mortality reductions occurred among males or for NCD mortality in either gender. By 2009, all-cause, CD, and NCD mortality rates were not significantly different between males and females, and among males, injuries equalled HIV as the top cause of death.

Conclusions

This study found significant reductions in adolescent and young adult female mortality rates, evidencing the effects of targeted public health programmes, however, all-cause and CD mortality rates among females remain alarmingly high. These data underscore the need to strengthen programmes and target strategies to reach both males and females, and to promote NCD as well as CD initiatives to reduce the mortality burden amongst both gender.     

An Analysis of Pregnancy-Related Mortality in the KEMRI/CDC Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Western Kenya

Background

Pregnancy-related (PR) deaths are often a result of direct obstetric complications occurring at childbirth.

Methods and Findings

To estimate the burden of and characterize risk factors for PR mortality, we evaluated deaths that occurred between 2003 and 2008 among women of childbearing age (15 to 49 years) using Health and Demographic Surveillance System data in rural western Kenya. WHO ICD definition of PR mortality was used: “the death of a woman while pregnant or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy, irrespective of the cause of death”. In addition, symptoms and events at the time of death were examined using the WHO verbal autopsy methodology. Deaths were categorized as either (i) directly PR: main cause of death was ascribed as obstetric, or (ii) indirectly PR: main cause of death was non-obstetric. Of 3,223 deaths in women 15 to 49 years, 249 (7.7%) were PR. One-third (34%) of these were due to direct obstetric causes, predominantly postpartum hemorrhage, abortion complications and puerperal sepsis. Two-thirds were indirect; three-quarters were attributable to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV/AIDS), malaria and tuberculosis. Significantly more women who died in lower socio-economic groups sought care from traditional birth attendants (p = 0.034), while less impoverished women were more likely to seek hospital care (p = 0.001). The PR mortality ratio over the six years was 740 (95% CI 651–838) per 100,000 live births, with no evidence of reduction over time (χ² linear trend = 1.07; p = 0.3).

Conclusions

These data supplement current scanty information on the relationship between infectious diseases and poor maternal outcomes in Africa. They indicate low uptake of maternal health interventions in women dying during pregnancy and postpartum, suggesting improved access to and increased uptake of skilled obstetric care, as well as preventive measures against HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis among all women of childbearing age may help to reduce pregnancy-related mortality.     

Causes of Death among Adults in Northern Ethiopia: Evidence from Verbal Autopsy Data in Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

In countries where registration of vital events is lacking and the proportion of people who die at home without medical care is high, verbal autopsy is used to determine and estimate causes of death.

Methods

We conducted 723 verbal autopsy interviews of adult (15 years of age and above) deaths from September 2009 to January 2013. Trained physicians interpreted the collected verbal autopsy data, and assigned causes of death according to the international classification of diseases (ICD-10). We did analysis of specific as well as broad causes of death (i.e. non-communicable diseases, communicable diseases and external causes of death) by sex and age using Stata version 11.1. We performed logistic regression to identify socio-demographic predictors using odds ratio with 95% confidence interval and a p-value of 0.05.

Findings

Tuberculosis, cerebrovascular diseases and accidental falls were leading specific causes of death accounting for 15.9%, 7.3% and 3.9% of all deaths. Two hundred sixty three (36.4% [95% CI: 32.9, 39.9]), 252 (34.9% [95% CI: 31.4, 38.4]) and 89 (12.3% [95% CI: 10.1, 14.9]) deaths were due to non-communicable, communicable diseases, and external causes, respectively. Females had 1.5 times (AOR = 1.53 [95% CI: 1.10, 2.15]) higher odds of dying due to communicable diseases than males. The odds of dying due to external causes were 4 times higher among 15–49 years of age (AOR = 4.02 [95% CI: 2.25, 7.18]) compared to older ages. Males also had 1.7 times (AOR = 1.70 [95% CI: 1.01, 2.85]) higher odds of dying due to external causes than females.

Conclusion

Tuberculosis, cerebrovascular diseases and accidental falls were the top three causes of death among adults. Efforts to prevent tuberculosis and cerebrovascular diseases related deaths should be improved and safety efforts to reduce accidents should also receive attention.     

Adjusting HIV Prevalence for Survey Non-Response Using Mortality Rates: An Application of the Method Using Surveillance Data from Rural South Africa

Background

The main source of HIV prevalence estimates are household and population-based surveys; however, high refusal rates may hinder the interpretation of such estimates. The study objective was to evaluate whether population HIV prevalence estimates can be adjusted for survey non-response using mortality rates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data come from the longitudinal Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), in rural South Africa. Mortality rates for persons tested and not tested in the 2005 HIV surveillance were available from routine household surveillance. Assuming HIV status among individuals contacted but who refused to test (non-response) is missing at random and mortality among non-testers can be related to mortality of those tested a mathematical model was developed. Non-parametric bootstrapping was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates. Mortality rates were higher among untested (16.9 per thousand person-years) than tested population (11.6 per thousand person-years), suggesting higher HIV prevalence in the former. Adjusted HIV prevalence for females (15–49 years) was 31.6% (95% CI 26.1–37.1) compared to observed 25.2% (95% CI 24.0–26.4). For males (15–49 years) adjusted HIV prevalence was 19.8% (95% CI 14.8–24.8), compared to observed 13.2% (95% CI 12.1–14.3). For both sexes (15–49 years) combined, adjusted prevalence was 27.5% (95% CI 23.6–31.3), and observed prevalence was 19.7% (95% CI 19.6–21.3). Overall, observed prevalence underestimates the adjusted prevalence by around 7 percentage points (37% relative difference).

Conclusions/Significance

We developed a simple approach to adjust HIV prevalence estimates for survey non-response. The approach has three features that make it easy to implement and effective in adjusting for selection bias than other approaches. Further research is needed to assess this approach in populations with widely available HIV treatment (ART).     

Khat Chewing Practice and Associated Factors among Adults in Ethiopia: Further Analysis Using the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey

Background

Khat chewing has become a highly prevalent practice and a growing public health concern in Ethiopia. Although there have been many small scale studies, very limited national information has been available in the general population. This study aimed to identify factors associated with khat chewing practice among Ethiopian adults.

Methods

The study used the 2011 Ethiopian demographic and health survey data. The survey was cross-sectional by design and used a multistage cluster sampling procedure. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression models with adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to quantify the predictors.

Results

The overall khat chewing prevalence was 15.3% (95% CI: 14.90–15.71). Regional variation was observed with the highest in Harari [(53.2% (95% CI: 43.04–63.28)] and lowest in Tigray regional state [(1.1% (95% CI: 0.72–1.66)]. Multivariable analysis showed that Islam followers were 23.8 times more likely to chew khat as compared to Orthodox followers. Being a resident in Oromiya, South Nation, Nationalities and People (SNNP), Gambella, Harari and Dire Dawa regions had 1.9, 1.6, 3.1, 5.2 and 3.5 times higher odds of chewing khat as compared to Addis Ababa residents, respectively. Adults in the age group 45–49 years were 3.6 times more likely to chew khat as compared to 15–19 years. The middle and richest wealth quintiles were 1.3 and 1.5 times more likely to chew khat, respectively, as compared to the poorest category. Rural residents had 1.3 odds of chewing khat than urban residents. Those individuals who had occupation in sales, agriculture, service sector, skilled and unskilled manual workers were 1.6, 1.3, 2.4, 1.7 and 2.3 times more likely to chew khat, respectively, as compared to those who have no occupation. Females were 77% less likely to chew khat as compared to males. Formerly married and those experienced in child death had 1.4 and 1.2 times higher odds to chew khat as compared with those never married and never had child death, respectively. Those who attended mass media were 1.4 times more likely to chew khat compared with not attended.

Conclusion

Khat chewing is a public health concern in Ethiopia. The highest wealth quintiles, older age group, rural residence, child death, formerly married, males, regions of Oromiya, SNNP, Gambella, Harari and Dire Dawa and Islamic followers had statistically significant association with khat chewing. Due attention needs to be given for these factors in any intervention procedures.     

Sampling-Based Approaches to Improve Estimation of Mortality among Patient Dropouts: Experience from a Large PEPFAR-Funded Program in Western Kenya

Background

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of HIV care and treatment programs is impacted by losses to follow-up (LTFU) in the patient population. The severity of this effect is undeniable but its extent unknown. Tracing all lost patients addresses this but census methods are not feasible in programs involving rapid scale-up of HIV treatment in the developing world. Sampling-based approaches and statistical adjustment are the only scaleable methods permitting accurate estimation of M&E indices.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a large antiretroviral therapy (ART) program in western Kenya, we assessed the impact of LTFU on estimating patient mortality among 8,977 adult clients of whom, 3,624 were LTFU. Overall, dropouts were more likely male (36.8% versus 33.7%; p = 0.003), and younger than non-dropouts (35.3 versus 35.7 years old; p = 0.020), with lower median CD4 count at enrollment (160 versus 189 cells/ml; p<0.001) and WHO stage 3–4 disease (47.5% versus 41.1%; p<0.001). Urban clinic clients were 75.0% of non-dropouts but 70.3% of dropouts (p<0.001). Of the 3,624 dropouts, 1,143 were sought and 621 had their vital status ascertained. Statistical techniques were used to adjust mortality estimates based on information obtained from located LTFU patients. Observed mortality estimates one year after enrollment were 1.7% (95% CI 1.3%–2.0%), revised to 2.8% (2.3%–3.1%) when deaths discovered through outreach were added and adjusted to 9.2% (7.8%–10.6%) and 9.9% (8.4%–11.5%) through statistical modeling depending on the method used. The estimates 12 months after ART initiation were 1.7% (1.3%–2.2%), 3.4% (2.9%–4.0%), 10.5% (8.7%–12.3%) and 10.7% (8.9%–12.6%) respectively.

Conclusions/Significance Abstract

Assessment of the impact of LTFU is critical in program M&E as estimated mortality based on passive monitoring may underestimate true mortality by up to 80%. This bias can be ameliorated by tracing a sample of dropouts and statistically adjust the mortality estimates to properly evaluate and guide large HIV care and treatment programs.     

Geohelminth Infections among Pregnant Women in Rural Western Kenya; a Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Geohelminth infections are common in rural western Kenya, but risk factors and effects among pregnant women are not clear.

Methodology

During a community-based cross-sectional survey, pregnant women were interviewed and asked to provide a blood sample and a single fecal sample. Hemoglobin was measured and a blood slide examined for malaria. Geohelminth infections were identified using the concentration and Kato-Katz method.

Results

Among 390 participants who provided a stool sample, 76.2% were infected with at least one geohelminth: 52.3% with Ascaris lumbricoides, 39.5% with hookworm, and 29.0% with Trichuris trichiura. Infection with at least one geohelminth species was associated with the use of an unprotected water source (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1–3.0) and the lack of treatment of drinking water (AOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–3.1). Geohelminth infections were not associated with clinical symptoms, or low body mass index. A hookworm infection was associated with a lower mid upper arm circumference (adjusted mean decrease 0.7 cm, 95% CI 0.3–1.2 cm). Hookworm infections with an egg count ≥1000/gram feces (11 women) were associated with lower hemoglobin (adjusted mean decrease 1.5 g/dl, 95% CI 0.3–2.7). Among gravidae 2 and 3, women with A. lumbricoides were less likely to have malaria parasitemia (OR 0.4, 95% CI 0.2–0.8) compared to women without A. lumbricoides, unlike other gravidity groups.

Conclusion

Geohelminth infections are common in this pregnant population; however, there were few observed detrimental effects. Routine provision of antihelminth treatment during an antenatal clinic visit is recommended, but in this area an evaluation of the impact on pregnancy, malaria, and birth outcome is useful.     

Using Health Extension Workers for Monitoring Child Mortality in Real-Time: Validation against Household Survey Data in Rural Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has scaled up its community-based programs over the past decade by training and deploying health extension workers (HEWs) in rural communities throughout the country. Consequently, child mortality has declined substantially, placing Ethiopia among the few countries that have achieved the United Nations’ fourth Millennium Development Goal. As Ethiopia continues its efforts, results must be assessed regularly to provide timely feedback for improvement and to generate further support for programs. More specifically the expansion of HEWs at the community level provides a unique opportunity to build a system for real-time monitoring of births and deaths, linked to a civil registration and vital statistics system that Ethiopia is also developing. We tested the accuracy and completeness of births and deaths reported by trained HEWs for monitoring child mortality over 15 -month periods.

Methods and Findings

HEWs were trained in 93 randomly selected rural kebeles in Jimma and West Hararghe zones of the Oromia region to report births and deaths over a 15-month period from January, 2012 to March, 2013. Completeness of number of births and deaths, age distribution of deaths, and accuracy of resulting under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates were assessed against data from a large household survey with full birth history from women aged 15–49. Although, in general HEWs, were able to accurately report events that they identified, the completeness of number of births and deaths reported over twelve-month periods was very low and variable across the two zones. Compared to household survey estimates, HEWs reported only about 30% of births and 21% of under-five deaths occurring in their communities over a twelve-month period. The under-five mortality rate was under-estimated by around 30%, infant mortality rate by 23% and neonatal mortality by 17%. HEWs reported disproportionately higher number of deaths among the very young infants than among the older children.

Conclusion

Birth and death data reported by HEWs are not complete enough to support the monitoring of changes in childhood mortality. HEWs can significantly contribute to the success of a CRVS in Ethiopia, but cannot be relied upon as the sole source for identification of vital events. Further studies are needed to understand how to increase the level of completeness.     

Etiology and Incidence of Viral and Bacterial Acute Respiratory Illness among Older Children and Adults in Rural Western Kenya, 2007-2010

BACKGROUND: Few comprehensive data exist on disease incidence for specific etiologies of acute respiratory illness (ARI) in older children and adults in Africa. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From March 1, 2007, to February 28, 2010, among a surveillance population of 21,420 persons >5 years old in rural western Kenya, we collected blood for culture and malaria smears, nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for quantitative real-time PCR for ten viruses and three atypical bacteria, and urine for pneumococcal antigen testing on outpatients and inpatients meeting a ARI case definition (cough or difficulty breathing or chest pain and temperature >38.0°C or oxygen saturation <90% or hospitalization). We also collected swabs from asymptomatic controls, from which we calculated pathogen-attributable fractions, adjusting for age, season, and HIV-status, in logistic regression. We calculated incidence by pathogen, adjusting for health-seeking for ARI and pathogen-attributable fractions. Among 3,406 ARI patients >5 years old (adjusted annual incidence 12.0 per 100 person-years), influenza A virus was the most common virus (22% overall; 11% inpatients, 27% outpatients) and Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common bacteria (16% overall; 23% inpatients, 14% outpatients), yielding annual incidences of 2.6 and 1.7 episodes per 100 person-years, respectively. Influenza A virus, influenza B virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus were more prevalent in swabs among cases (22%, 6%, 8% and 5%, respectively) than controls. Adenovirus, parainfluenza viruses, rhinovirus/enterovirus, parechovirus, and Mycoplasma pneumoniae were not more prevalent among cases than controls. Pneumococcus and non-typhi Salmonella were more prevalent among HIV-infected adults, but prevalence of viruses was similar among HIV-infected and HIV-negative individuals. ARI incidence was highest during peak malaria season. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNFICANCE: Vaccination against influenza and pneumococcus (by potential herd immunity from childhood vaccination or of HIV-infected adults) might prevent much of the substantial ARI incidence among persons >5 years old in similar rural African settings.     

Using Health Surveillance Systems Data to Assess the Impact of AIDS and Antiretroviral Treatment on Adult Morbidity and Mortality in Botswana

Introduction

Botswana''s AIDS response included free antiretroviral treatment (ART) since 2002, achieving 80% coverage of persons with CD4<350 cells/µl by 2009–10. We explored impact on mortality and HIV prevalence, analyzing surveillance and civil registration data.

Methods

Hospital natural cause admissions and deaths from the Health Statistics Unit (HSU) over 1990–2009, all-cause deaths from Midnight Bed Census (MNC) over 1990–2011, institutional and non-institutional deaths recorded in the Registry of Birth and Deaths (RBD) over 2003–2010, and antenatal sentinel surveillance (ANC) over 1992–2011 were compared to numbers of persons receiving ART. Mortality was adjusted for differential coverage and completeness of institutional and non-institutional deaths, and compared to WHO and UNAIDS Spectrum projections.

Results

HSU deaths per 1000 admissions declined 49% in adults 15–64 years over 2003–2009. RBD mortality declined 44% (807 to 452/100,000 population in adults 15–64 years) over 2003–2010, similarly in males and females. Generally, death rates were higher in males; declines were greater and earlier in younger adults, and in females. In contrast, death rates in adults 65+, particularly females increased over 2003–2006. MNC all-age post-neonatal mortality declined 46% and 63% in primary and secondary level hospitals, over 2003–2011. We estimated RBD captured 80% of adult deaths over 2006–2011. Comparing empirical, completeness-adjusted deaths to Spectrum estimates, declines over 2003–2009 were similar overall (47% vs. 54%); however, Spectrum projected larger and earlier declines particularly in women. Following stabilization and modest decreases over 1998–2002, HIV prevalence in pregnant women 15–24 and 25–29-years declined by >50% and >30% through 2011, while continuing to increase in older women.

Conclusions

Adult mortality in Botswana fell markedly as ART coverage increased. HIV prevalence declines may reflect ART-associated reductions in sexual transmission. Triangulation of surveillance system data offers a reasonable approach to evaluate impact of HIV/AIDS interventions, complementing cohort approaches that monitor individual-level health outcomes.     

Improving Maternal and Newborn Health: Effectiveness of a Community Health Worker Program in Rural Kenya

Background

Volunteer community health workers (CHWs) form an important element of many health systems, and in Kenya these volunteers are the foundation for promoting behavior change through health education, earlier case identification, and timely referral to trained health care providers. This study examines the effectiveness of a community health worker project conducted in rural Kenya that sought to promote improved knowledge of maternal newborn health and to increase deliveries under skilled attendance.

Methods

The study utilized a quasi-experimental nonequivalent design that examined relevant demographic items and knowledge about maternal and newborn health combined with a comprehensive retrospective birth history of women’s children using oral interviews of women who were exposed to health messages delivered by CHWs and those who were not exposed. The project trained CHWs in three geographically distinct areas.

Results

Mean knowledge scores were higher in those women who reported being exposed to the health messages from CHWs, Eburru 32.3 versus 29.2, Kinale 21.8 vs 20.7, Nyakio 26.6 vs 23.8. The number of women delivering under skilled attendance was higher for those mothers who reported exposure to one or more health messages, compared to those who did not. The percentage of facility deliveries for women exposed to health messages by CHWs versus non-exposed was: Eburru 46% versus 19%; Kinale 94% versus 73%: and Nyakio 80% versus 78%.

Conclusion

The delivery of health messages by CHWs increased knowledge of maternal and newborn care among women in the local community and encouraged deliveries under skilled attendance.     

Impaired Glucose Metabolism among Those with and without Diagnosed Diabetes and Mortality: A Cohort Study Using Health Survey for England Data

Background

The extent that controlled diabetes impacts upon mortality, compared with uncontrolled diabetes, and how pre-diabetes alters mortality risk remain issues requiring clarification.

Methods

We carried out a cohort study of 22,106 Health Survey for England participants with a HbA1_C measurement linked with UK mortality records. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause, cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox regression.

Results

Average follow-up time was seven years and there were 1,509 deaths within the sample. Compared with the non-diabetic and normoglycaemic group (HbA1_C <5.7% [<39mmol/mol] and did not indicate diabetes), undiagnosed diabetes (HbA1_C ≥6.5% [≥48mmol/mol] and did not indicate diabetes) inferred an increased risk of mortality for all-causes (HR 1.40, 1.09–1.80) and CVD (1.99, 1.35–2.94), as did uncontrolled diabetes (diagnosed diabetes and HbA1_C ≥6.5% [≥48mmol/mol]) and diabetes with moderately raised HbA1_C (diagnosed diabetes and HbA1_C 5.7-<6.5% [39-<48mmol/mol]). Those with controlled diabetes (diagnosed diabetes and HbA<5.7% [<39mmol/mol]) had an increased HR in relation to mortality from CVD only. Pre-diabetes (those who did not indicate diagnosed diabetes and HbA1_C 5.7-<6.5% [39-<48mmol/mol]) was not associated with increased mortality, and raised HbA1_C did not appear to have a statistically significant impact upon cancer mortality. Adjustment for BMI and socioeconomic status had a limited impact upon our results. We also found women had a higher all-cause and CVD mortality risk compared with men.

Conclusions

We found higher rates of all-cause and CVD mortality among those with raised HbA1_C, but not for those with pre-diabetes, compared with those without diabetes. This excess differed by sex and diabetes status. The large number of deaths from cancer and CVD globally suggests that controlling blood glucose levels and policies to prevent hyperglycaemia should be considered public health priorities.     

Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa

Background

Women have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed—at the population level—whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade.

Methods and Findings

Data were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually.Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82–1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60–0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends.

Conclusions

Mass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female–male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.     

HIV Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors among Individuals Aged 13-34 Years in Rural Western Kenya

Objectives

To estimate HIV prevalence and characterize risk factors among young adults in Asembo, rural western Kenya.

Design

Community-based cross-sectional survey.

Methods

From a demographic surveillance system, we selected a random sample of residents aged 13-34 years, who were contacted at home and invited to a nearby mobile study site. Consent procedures for non-emancipated minors required assent and parental consent. From October 2003 - April 2004, consenting participants were interviewed on risk behavior and tested for HIV and HSV-2. HIV voluntary counseling and testing was offered.

Results

Of 2606 eligible residents, 1822 (70%) enrolled. Primary reasons for refusal included not wanting blood taken, not wanting to learn HIV status, and partner/parental objection.Females comprised 53% of 1762 participants providing blood. Adjusted HIV prevalence was 15.4% overall: 20.5% among females and 10.2% among males. HIV prevalence was highest in women aged 25-29 years (36.5%) and men aged 30-34 years (41.1%). HSV-2 prevalence was 40.0% overall: 53% among females, 25.8% among males. In multivariate models stratified by gender and marital status, HIV infection was strongly associated with age, higher number of sex partners, widowhood, and HSV-2 seropositivity.

Conclusions

Asembo has extremely high HIV and HSV-2 prevalence, and probable high incidence, among young adults. Further research on circumstances around HIV acquisition in young women and novel prevention strategies (vaccines, microbicides, pre-exposure prophylaxis, HSV-2 prevention, etc.) are urgently needed.     

Streptococcus pneumoniae Serotypes and Mortality in Adults and Adolescents in South Africa: Analysis of National Surveillance Data, 2003 - 2008

BackgroundAn association between pneumococcal serotypes and mortality has been suggested. We aimed to investigate this among individuals aged ≥15 years with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in South Africa.MethodsIPD cases were identified through national laboratory-based surveillance at 25 sites, pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction, from 2003–2008. We assessed the association between the 20 commonest serotypes and in-hospital mortality using logistic regression with serotype 4 (the third commonest serotype with intermediate case-fatality ratio (CFR)) as referent.ResultsAmong 3953 IPD cases, CFR was 55% (641/1166) for meningitis and 23% (576/2484) for bacteremia (p<0.001). Serotype 19F had the highest CFR (48%, 100/207), followed by serotype 23F (39%, 99/252) and serotype 1 (38%, 246/651). On multivariable analysis, factors independently associated with mortality included serotype 1 (OR 1.9, 95%CI 1.1–3.5) and 19F (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.4–6.1) vs. serotype 4; increasing age (25–44 years, OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.0–3.0; 45–64 years, OR 3.6, 95%CI 2.0–6.4; ≥65 years, OR 5.2, 95%CI 1.9–14.1; vs. 15–24 years); meningitis (OR 4.1, 95%CI 3.0–5.6) vs. bacteremic pneumonia; and HIV infection (OR1.7, 95%CI 1.0–2.8). On stratified multivariate analysis, serotype 19F was associated with increased mortality amongst bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia cases, while no serotype was associated with increased mortality in meningitis cases.ConclusionMortality was increased in HIV-infected individuals, which may be reduced by increased antiretroviral therapy availability. Serotypes associated with increased mortality are included in the 10-and-13-valent PCV and may become less common in adults due to indirect effects following routine infant immunization.     

Time Trends and Inequalities of Under-Five Mortality in Nepal: A Secondary Data Analysis of Four Demographic and Health Surveys between 1996 and 2011

Background

Inequalities in progress towards achievement of Millennium Development Goal four (MDG-4) reflect unequal access to child health services.

Objective

To examine the time trends, socio-economic and regional inequalities of under-five mortality rate (U5MR) in Nepal.

Methods

We analyzed the data from complete birth histories of four Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) done in the years 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011. For each livebirth, we computed survival period from birth until either fifth birthday or the survey date. Using direct methods i.e. by constructing life tables, we calculated yearly U5MRs from 1991 to 2010. Projections were made for the years 2011 to 2015. For each NDHS, U5MRs were calculated according to child''s sex, mother’s education, household wealth index, rural/urban residence, development regions and ecological zones. Inequalities were calculated as rate difference, rate ratio, population attributable risk and hazard ratio.

Results

Yearly U5MR (per 1000 live births) had decreased from 157.3 (95% CIs 178.0-138.9) in 1991 to 43.2 (95% CIs 59.1-31.5) in 2010 i.e. 114.1 reduction in absolute risk. Projected U5MR for the year 2015 was 54.33. U5MRs had decreased in absolute terms in all sub groups but relative inequalities had reduced for gender and rural/urban residence only. Wide inequalities existed by wealth and education and increased between 1996 and 2011. For lowest wealth quintile (as compared to highest quintile) hazard ratio (HR) increased from 1.37 (95% CIs 1.27, 1.49) to 2.54 ( 95% CIs 2.25, 2.86) and for mothers having no education (as compared to higher education) HR increased from 2.55 (95% CIs 1.95, 3.33) to 3.75 (95% CIs 3.17, 4.44). Changes in regional inequities were marginal and irregular.

Conclusions

Nepal is most likely to achieve MDG-4 but eductional and wealth inequalities may widen further. National health policies should address to reduce inequalities in U5MR through ‘inclusive policies''.     

Identifying and Targeting Mortality Disparities: A Framework for Sub-Saharan Africa Using Adult Mortality Data from South Africa

Background

Health inequities in developing countries are difficult to eradicate because of limited resources. The neglect of adult mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a particular concern. Advances in data availability, software and analytic methods have created opportunities to address this challenge and tailor interventions to small areas. This study demonstrates how a generic framework can be applied to guide policy interventions to reduce adult mortality in high risk areas. The framework, therefore, incorporates the spatial clustering of adult mortality, estimates the impact of a range of determinants and quantifies the impact of their removal to ensure optimal returns on scarce resources.

Methods

Data from a national cross-sectional survey in 2007 were used to illustrate the use of the generic framework for SSA and elsewhere. Adult mortality proportions were analyzed at four administrative levels and spatial analyses were used to identify areas with significant excess mortality. An ecological approach was then used to assess the relationship between mortality “hotspots” and various determinants. Population attributable fractions were calculated to quantify the reduction in mortality as a result of targeted removal of high-impact determinants.

Results

Overall adult mortality rate was 145 per 10,000. Spatial disaggregation identified a highly non-random pattern and 67 significant high risk local municipalities were identified. The most prominent determinants of adult mortality included HIV antenatal sero-prevalence, low SES and lack of formal marital union status. The removal of the most attributable factors, based on local area prevalence, suggest that overall adult mortality could be potentially reduced by ∼90 deaths per 10,000.

Conclusions

The innovative use of secondary data and advanced epidemiological techniques can be combined in a generic framework to identify and map mortality to the lowest administration level. The identification of high risk mortality determinants allows health authorities to tailor interventions at local level. This approach can be replicated elsewhere.     

Tree Diversity in Western Kenya: Using Profiles to Characterise Richness and Evenness

Species diversity is a function of the number of species and the evenness in the abundance of the component species. We calculated diversity and evenness profiles, which allowed comparing the diversity and evenness of communities. We applied the methodology to investigate differences in diversity among the main functions of trees on western Kenyan farms. Many use-groups (all trees and species that provide a specific use) could not be ranked in diversity or evenness. No use-group had perfectly even distributions. Evenness could especially be enhanced for construction materials, fruit, ornamental, firewood, timber and medicine, which included some of the most species-rich groups of the investigated landscape. When considering only the evenness in the distribution of the dominant species, timber, medicine, fruit and beverage ranked lowest (> 60% of trees belonged to the dominant species of these groups). These are also use-groups that are mainly grown by farmers to provide cash through sales. Since not all communities can be ranked in diversity, studies that attempt to order communities in diversity should not base the ordering on a single index, or even a combination of several indices, but use techniques developed for diversity ordering such as the Rényi diversity profile. The rarefaction of diversity profiles described in this article could be used in studies that compare results from surveys with different sample sizes.