A stochastic model for a single click of Muller's ratchet

This work presents a new approach to Muller's ratchet, where Haigh's model is approximately mapped into a simpler model that describes the behaviour of a population after a click of the ratchet, i.e., after loss of what was the fittest class. This new model predicts the distribution of times to the next click of the ratchet and is equivalent to a Wright-Fisher model for a population of haploid asexual individuals with one locus and two alleles. Within this model, the fittest members of a population correspond to carriers of one allele, while all other individuals have suboptimal fitness and are represented as carriers of the other allele. In this way, all suboptimal fitness individuals are amalgamated into a single “mutant” class.The approach presented here has some limitations and the potential for improvement. However, it does lead to results for the rate of the ratchet that, over a wide range of parameters, are accurate within one order of magnitude of simulation results. This contrasts with existing approaches, which are designed for only one or other of the two different parameter regimes known for the ratchet and are more accurate only in the parameter regime they were designed for.Numerical results are presented for the mean time between clicks of the ratchet for (i) the Wright-Fisher model, (ii) a diffusion approximation of this model and (iii) individually based simulations of a full model. The diffusion approximation is validated over a wide range of parameters by its close agreement with the Wright-Fisher model.The present work predicts that: (a) the time between clicks of the ratchet is insensitive to the value of the selection coefficient when the genomic mutation rate is large compared with the selection coefficient against a deleterious mutation, (b) the time interval between clicks of the ratchet has, approximately, an exponential distribution (or its discrete analogue). It is thus possible to determine the variance in times between clicks, given the expected time between clicks. Evidence for both (a) and (b) is seen in simulations.     

Fluctuations of Fitness Distributions and the Rate of Muller's Ratchet

The accumulation of deleterious mutations is driven by rare fluctuations that lead to the loss of all mutation free individuals, a process known as Muller's ratchet. Even though Muller's ratchet is a paradigmatic process in population genetics, a quantitative understanding of its rate is still lacking. The difficulty lies in the nontrivial nature of fluctuations in the fitness distribution, which control the rate of extinction of the fittest genotype. We address this problem using the simple but classic model of mutation selection balance with deleterious mutations all having the same effect on fitness. We show analytically how fluctuations among the fittest individuals propagate to individuals of lower fitness and have dramatically amplified effects on the bulk of the population at a later time. If a reduction in the size of the fittest class reduces the mean fitness only after a delay, selection opposing this reduction is also delayed. This delayed restoring force speeds up Muller's ratchet. We show how the delayed response can be accounted for using a path-integral formulation of the stochastic dynamics and provide an expression for the rate of the ratchet that is accurate across a broad range of parameters.     

Absorbing phenomena and escaping time for Muller's ratchet in adaptive landscape

Background

The accumulation of deleterious mutations of a population directly contributes to the fate as to how long the population would exist, a process often described as Muller's ratchet with the absorbing phenomenon. The key to understand this absorbing phenomenon is to characterize the decaying time of the fittest class of the population. Adaptive landscape introduced by Wright, a re-emerging powerful concept in systems biology, is used as a tool to describe biological processes. To our knowledge, the dynamical behaviors for Muller's ratchet over the full parameter regimes are not studied from the point of the adaptive landscape. And the characterization of the absorbing phenomenon is not yet quantitatively obtained without extraneous assumptions as well.

Methods

We describe how Muller's ratchet can be mapped to the classical Wright-Fisher process in both discrete and continuous manners. Furthermore, we construct the adaptive landscape for the system analytically from the general diffusion equation. The constructed adaptive landscape is independent of the existence and normalization of the stationary distribution. We derive the formula of the single click time in finite and infinite potential barrier for all parameters regimes by mean first passage time.

Results

We describe the dynamical behavior of the population exposed to Muller's ratchet in all parameters regimes by adaptive landscape. The adaptive landscape has rich structures such as finite and infinite potential, real and imaginary fixed points. We give the formula about the single click time with finite and infinite potential. And we find the single click time increases with selection rates and population size increasing, decreases with mutation rates increasing. These results provide a new understanding of infinite potential. We analytically demonstrate the adaptive and unadaptive states for the whole parameters regimes. Interesting issues about the parameters regions with the imaginary fixed points is demonstrated. Most importantly, we find that the absorbing phenomenon is characterized by the adaptive landscape and the single click time without any extraneous assumptions. These results suggest a graphical and quantitative framework to study the absorbing phenomenon.

     

QUANTITATIVE VARIATION IN FINITE PARTHENOGENETIC POPULATIONS: WHAT STOPS MULLER'S RATCHET IN THE ABSENCE OF RECOMBINATION?

Finite parthenogenetic populations with high genomic mutation rates accumulate deleterious mutations if back mutations are rare. This mechanism, known as Muller's ratchet, can explain the rarity of parthenogenetic species among so called higher organisms. However, estimates of genomic mutation rates for deleterious alleles and their average effect in the diploid condition in Drosophila suggest that Muller's ratchet should eliminate parthenogenetic insect populations within several hundred generations, provided all mutations are unconditionally deleterious. This fact is inconsistent with the existence of obligatory parthenogenetic insect species. In this paper an analysis of the extent to which compensatory mutations can counter Muller's ratchet is presented. Compensatory mutations are defined as all mutations that compensate for the phenotypic effects of a deleterious mutation. In the case of quantitative traits under stabilizing selection, the rate of compensatory mutations is easily predicted. It is shown that there is a strong analogy between the Muller's ratchet model of Felsenstein (1974) and the quantitative genetic model considered here, except for the frequency of compensatory mutations. If the intensity of stabilizing selection is too small or the mutation rate too high, the optimal genotype becomes extinct and the population mean drifts from the optimum but still reaches a stationary distribution. This distance is essentially the same as predicted for sexually reproducing populations under the same circumstances. Hence, at least in the short run, compensatory mutations for quantitative characters are as effective as recombination in halting the decline of mean fitness otherwise caused by Muller's ratchet. However, it is questionable whether compensatory mutations can prevent Muller's ratchet in the long run because there might be a limit to the capacity of the genome to provide compensatory mutations without eliminating deleterious mutations at least during occasional episodes of sex.     

The degeneration of asexual haploid populations and the speed of Muller's ratchet

The accumulation of deleterious mutations due to the process known as Muller's ratchet can lead to the degeneration of nonrecombining populations. We present an analytical approximation for the rate at which this process is expected to occur in a haploid population. The approximation is based on a diffusion equation and is valid when N exp(-u/s) > 1, where N is the population size, u is the rate at which deleterious mutations occur, and s is the effect of each mutation on fitness. Simulation results are presented to show that the approximation estimates the rate of the process better than previous approximations for values of mutation rates and selection coefficients that are compatible with the biological data. Under certain conditions, the ratchet can turn at a biologically significant rate when the deterministic equilibrium number of individuals free of mutations is substantially >100. The relevance of this process for the degeneration of Y or neo-Y chromosomes is discussed.     

Muller's ratchet and the pattern of variation at a neutral locus

The levels and patterns of variation at a neutral locus are analyzed in a haploid asexual population undergoing accumulation of deleterious mutations due to Muller's ratchet. We find that the movement of Muller's ratchet can be associated with a considerable reduction in genetic diversity below classical neutral expectation. The extent to which variability is reduced is a function of the deleterious mutation rate, the fitness effects of the mutations, and the population size. Approximate analytical expressions for the expected genetic diversity are compared with simulation results under two different models of deleterious mutations: a model where all deleterious mutations have equal effects and a model where there are two classes of deleterious mutations. We also find that Muller's ratchet can produce a considerable distortion in the neutral frequency spectrum toward an excess of rare variants.     

Loss of least-loaded class in asexual populations due to drift and epistasis

We consider the dynamics of a nonrecombining haploid population of finite size that accumulates deleterious mutations irreversibly. This ratchet-like process occurs at a finite speed in the absence of epistasis, but it has been suggested that synergistic epistasis can halt the ratchet. Using a diffusion theory, we find explicit analytical expressions for the typical time between successive clicks of the ratchet for both nonepistatic and epistatic fitness functions. Our calculations show that the interclick time is of a scaling form that in the absence of epistasis gives a speed that is determined by size of the least-loaded class and the selection coefficient. With synergistic interactions, the ratchet speed is found to approach zero rapidly for arbitrary epistasis. Our analytical results are in good agreement with the numerical simulations.     

The extinction time under mutational meltdown driven by high mutation rates

Mutational meltdown describes an eco‐evolutionary process in which the accumulation of deleterious mutations causes a fitness decline that eventually leads to the extinction of a population. Possible applications of this concept include medical treatment of RNA virus infections based on mutagenic drugs that increase the mutation rate of the pathogen. To determine the usefulness and expected success of such an antiviral treatment, estimates of the expected time to mutational meltdown are necessary. Here, we compute the extinction time of a population under high mutation rates, using both analytical approaches and stochastic simulations. Extinction is the result of three consecutive processes: (a) initial accumulation of deleterious mutations due to the increased mutation pressure; (b) consecutive loss of the fittest haplotype due to Muller''s ratchet; (c) rapid population decline toward extinction. We find accurate analytical results for the mean extinction time, which show that the deleterious mutation rate has the strongest effect on the extinction time. We confirm that intermediate‐sized deleterious selection coefficients minimize the extinction time. Finally, our simulations show that the variation in extinction time, given a set of parameters, is surprisingly small.     

The accumulation of mutations in asexual populations and the structure of genealogical trees in the presence of selection

We study the accumulation of unfavourable mutations in asexual populations by the process of Muller's ratchet, and the consequent inevitable decrease in fitness of the population. Simulations show that it is mutations with only moderate unfavourable effect that lead to the most rapid decrease in fitness. We measure the number of fixations as a function of time and show that the fixation rate must be equal to the ratchet rate once a steady state is reached. Large bursts of fixations are observed to occur simultaneously. We relate this to the structure of the genealogical tree. We derive equations relating the rate of the ratchet to the moments of the distribution of the number of mutations k per individual. These equations interpolate between the deterministic limit (an infinite population with selection present) and the neutral limit (a finite size population with no selection). Both these limits are exactly soluble. In the neutral case, the distribution of k is shown to be non-self-averaging, i.e. the fluctuations remain very large even for very large populations. We also consider the strong-selection limit in which only individuals in the fittest surviving class have offspring. This limit is again exactly soluble. We investigate the structure of the genealogical tree relating individuals in the same population, and consider the probability (T) that two individuals had their latest common ancestor T generations in the past. The function (T) is exactly calculable in the neutral limit and the strong-selection limit, and we obtain an empirical solution for intermediate selection strengths.     

Adaptive evolution of asexual populations under Muller's ratchet

We study the population genetics of adaptation in nonequilibrium haploid asexual populations. We find that the accumulation of deleterious mutations, due to the operation of Muller's ratchet, can considerably reduce the rate of fixation of advantageous alleles. Such reduction can be approximated reasonably well by a reduction in the effective population size. In the absence of Muller's ratchet, a beneficial mutation can only become fixed if it creates the best possible genotype; if Muller's ratchet operates, however, mutations initially arising in a nonoptimal genotype can also become fixed in the population, since the loss of the least-loaded class implies that an initially nonoptimal background can become optimal. We show that, while the rate at which adaptive mutations become fixed is reduced, the rate of fixation of deleterious mutations due to the ratchet is not changed by the presence of beneficial mutations as long as the rate of their occurrence is low and the deleterious effects of mutations (s(d)) are higher than the beneficial effects (s(a)). When s(a) > s(d), the advantage of a beneficial mutation can outweigh the deleterious effects of associated mutations. Under these conditions, a beneficial allele can drag to fixation deleterious mutations initially associated with it at a higher rate than in the absence of advantageous alleles. We propose analytical approximations for the rates of accumulation of deleterious and beneficial mutations. Furthermore, when allowing for the possible occurrence of interference between beneficial alleles, we find that the presence of deleterious mutations of either very weak or very strong effect can marginally increase the rate of accumulation of beneficial mutations over that observed in the absence of such deleterious mutations.     

Fixation probabilities of additive alleles in diploid populations

The calculation of the survival probability of a selectively advantageous allele is a central part of the quantitative theory of genetic evolution. However, several areas of investigation in population genetics theory, including the generalized neutrality theory, the concept of Muller's ratchet, and the risk of extinction of sexually reproducing populations due to the accumulation of deleterious mutations, rely on the calculation of the survival probability of selectively disadvantageous mutant genes. The calculation of these probabilities in the standard Wright-Fisher model of genetic evolution appears to be intractable, and yet is a key element in the above investigations. In this paper we find bounds for the fixation probability of deleterious and advantageous additive mutants, as well as finding close approximations for these probabilities. In addition, we derive analytical estimates for the relative error of our approximations and compare our results with those from numerical computation. Our results justify the diffusion approximation for the fixation probability of a single mutant.     

Muller''s Ratchet, Epistasis and Mutation Effects

In this study, computer simulation is used to show that despite synergistic epistasis for fitness, Muller's ratchet can lead to lethal fitness loss in a population of asexuals through the accumulation of deleterious mutations. This result contradicts previous work that indicated that epistasis will halt the ratchet. The present results show that epistasis will not halt the ratchet provided that rather than a single deleterious mutation effect, there is a distribution of deleterious mutation effects with sufficient density near zero. In addition to epistasis and mutation distribution, the ability of Muller's ratchet to lead to the extinction of an asexual population under epistasis for fitness depends strongly on the expected number of offspring that survive to reproductive age. This strong dependence is not present in the nonepistatic model and suggests that interpreting the population growth parameter as fecundity is inadequate. Because a continuous distribution of mutation effects is used in this model, an emphasis is placed on the dynamics of the mutation effect distribution rather than on the dynamics of the number of least mutation loaded individuals. This perspective suggests that current models of gene interaction are too simple to apply directly to long-term prediction for populations undergoing the ratchet.     

Dynamic mutation-selection balance as an evolutionary attractor

The vast majority of mutations are deleterious and are eliminated by purifying selection. Yet in finite asexual populations, purifying selection cannot completely prevent the accumulation of deleterious mutations due to Muller's ratchet: once lost by stochastic drift, the most-fit class of genotypes is lost forever. If deleterious mutations are weakly selected, Muller's ratchet can lead to a rapid degradation of population fitness. Evidently, the long-term stability of an asexual population requires an influx of beneficial mutations that continuously compensate for the accumulation of the weakly deleterious ones. Hence any stable evolutionary state of a population in a static environment must involve a dynamic mutation-selection balance, where accumulation of deleterious mutations is on average offset by the influx of beneficial mutations. We argue that such a state can exist for any population size N and mutation rate U and calculate the fraction of beneficial mutations, ε, that maintains the balanced state. We find that a surprisingly low ε suffices to achieve stability, even in small populations in the face of high mutation rates and weak selection, maintaining a well-adapted population in spite of Muller's ratchet. This may explain the maintenance of mitochondria and other asexual genomes.     

Sex and recombination purge the genome of deleterious alleles: An Individual Based Modeling Approach

The prevalence of sexual reproduction in most animal species despite its considerable costs such as useless males, energy spent on mating, the cost of meiosis and genome dilution remains a puzzle in evolutionary theory. One prominent single factor attempt to solve this persistent puzzle is the claim that sexual reproduction is instrumental in eliminating deleterious alleles from the species genome by the mechanism of recombination. There are three major versions of the deleterious allele hypothesis: First, the mutational deterministic hypothesis (MDH), which rests on the assumption of negative epistasis, predicts that recombination will help to purge the species genome of deleterious alleles by breaking apart linkages between these alleles. The assumption is that the joint negative effects of linked deleterious alleles is sometimes greater than the effects of the alleles considered separately. Second, there is the hypothesis that sexual reproduction speeds up purifying (negative) selection, which purges the genome of deleterious alleles. Alleles that are less deleterious than the wild type are naturally selected. These alleles, attained via recombination, are sometimes ‘leaky’ mutations giving rise to reduced functionality of attendant proteins. This hypothesis does not necessarily rest on the assumption of negative epistasis, which some argue is relatively rare in nature (Kouyos, Silander and Bonhoeffer (2012)) and which arguably could be seen as a virtue of the purifying selection hypothesis vs. the MDH. Third, Muller's ratchet hypothesis predicts that recombination will help to prevent the buildup of deleterious mutations by the mechanism of recombination. In this study, we focus primarily on testing the purifying selection hypothesis. We performed an individual-based model computer simulation using the program EcoSim to test this hypothesis. The experimental runs for sexual reproduction, asexual reproduction and facultative reproduction involved introducing a deleterious allele into the genome, which exacts an intermediate-level energy penalty on individuals. It was found that whereas on average, deleteriousness consistently declined over 18,000 time-steps due to recombination in sexual reproduction, deleteriousness did not decline for asexual and facultative runs. These results corroborate the hypothesis that recombination due to sexual reproduction helps to eliminate deleterious alleles from the genome through the selection of reduced function mutations.     

The speed of Muller's ratchet with background selection, and the degeneration of Y chromosomes.

The rate of accumulation of deleterious mutations by Muller's ratchet is investigated in large asexual haploid populations, for a range of parameters with potential biological relevance. The rate of this process is studied by considering a very simple model in which mutations can have two types of effect: either strongly deleterious or mildly deleterious. It is shown that the rate of accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations can be greatly increased by the presence of strongly deleterious mutations, and that this can be predicted from the associated reduction in effective population size (the background selection effect). We also examine the rate of the ratchet when there are two classes of mutation of similar but unequal effects on fitness. The accuracy of analytical approximations for the rate of this process is analysed. Its possible role in causing the degeneration of Y and neo-Y chromosomes is discussed in the light of our present knowledge of deleterious mutation rates and selection coefficients.     

Muller's ratchet and the degeneration of Y chromosomes: a simulation study

A typical pattern in sex chromosome evolution is that Y chromosomes are small and have lost many of their genes. One mechanism that might explain the degeneration of Y chromosomes is Muller's ratchet, the perpetual stochastic loss of linkage groups carrying the fewest number of deleterious mutations. This process has been investigated theoretically mainly for asexual, haploid populations. Here, I construct a model of a sexual population where deleterious mutations arise on both X and Y chromosomes. Simulation results of this model demonstrate that mutations on the X chromosome can considerably slow down the ratchet. On the other hand, a lower mutation rate in females than in males, background selection, and the emergence of dosage compensation are expected to accelerate the process.     

Small-world networks decrease the speed of Muller's ratchet

Muller's ratchet is an evolutionary process that has been implicated in the extinction of asexual species, the evolution of non-recombining genomes, such as the mitochondria, the degeneration of the Y chromosome, and the evolution of sex and recombination. Here we study the speed of Muller's ratchet in a spatially structured population which is subdivided into many small populations (demes) connected by migration, and distributed on a graph. We studied different types of networks: regular networks (similar to the stepping-stone model), small-world networks and completely random graphs. We show that at the onset of the small-world network - which is characterized by high local connectivity among the demes but low average path length - the speed of the ratchet starts to decrease dramatically. This result is independent of the number of demes considered, but is more pronounced the larger the network and the stronger the deleterious effect of mutations. Furthermore, although the ratchet slows down with increasing migration between demes, the observed decrease in speed is smaller in the stepping-stone model than in small-world networks. As migration rate increases, the structured populations approach, but never reach, the result in the corresponding panmictic population with the same number of individuals. Since small-world networks have been shown to describe well the real contact networks among people, we discuss our results in the light of the evolution of microbes and disease epidemics.     

Kick-starting the ratchet: the fate of mutators in an asexual population

Muller's ratchet operates in asexual populations without intergenomic recombination. In this case, deleterious mutations will accumulate and population fitness will decline over time, possibly endangering the survival of the species. Mutator mutations, i.e., mutations that lead to an increased mutation rate, will play a special role for the behavior of the ratchet. First, they are part of the ratchet and can come to dominance through accumulation in the ratchet. Second, the fitness-loss rate of the ratchet is very sensitive to changes in the mutation rate and even a modest increase can easily set the ratchet in motion. In this article we simulate the interplay between fitness loss from Muller's ratchet and the evolution of the mutation rate from the fixation of mutator mutations. As long as the mutation rate is increased in sufficiently small steps, an accelerating ratchet and eventual extinction are inevitable. If this can be countered by antimutators, i.e., mutations that reduce the mutation rate, an equilibrium can be established for the mutation rate at some level that may allow survival. However, the presence of the ratchet amplifies fluctuations in the mutation rate and, even at equilibrium, these fluctuations can lead to dangerous bursts in the ratchet. We investigate the timescales of these processes and discuss the results with reference to the genome degradation of the aphid endosymbiont Buchnera aphidicola.