Performance of a Limiting-Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay for Cross-Sectional Estimation of HIV Incidence in the United States

Background

A limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay (HIV-1 LAg-Avidity assay) was recently developed for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation. We evaluated the performance of the LAg-Avidity assay alone and in multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) that included other biomarkers.

Methods and Findings

Performance of testing algorithms was evaluated using 2,282 samples from individuals in the United States collected 1 month to >8 years after HIV seroconversion. The capacity of selected testing algorithms to accurately estimate incidence was evaluated in three longitudinal cohorts. When used in a single-assay format, the LAg-Avidity assay classified some individuals infected >5 years as assay positive and failed to provide reliable incidence estimates in cohorts that included individuals with long-term infections. We evaluated >500,000 testing algorithms, that included the LAg-Avidity assay alone and MAAs with other biomarkers (BED capture immunoassay [BED-CEIA], BioRad-Avidity assay, HIV viral load, CD4 cell count), varying the assays and assay cutoffs. We identified an optimized 2-assay MAA that included the LAg-Avidity and BioRad-Avidity assays, and an optimized 4-assay MAA that included those assays, as well as HIV viral load and CD4 cell count. The two optimized MAAs classified all 845 samples from individuals infected >5 years as MAA negative and estimated incidence within a year of sample collection. These two MAAs produced incidence estimates that were consistent with those from longitudinal follow-up of cohorts. A comparison of the laboratory assay costs of the MAAs was also performed, and we found that the costs associated with the optimal two assay MAA were substantially less than with the four assay MAA.

Conclusions

The LAg-Avidity assay did not perform well in a single-assay format, regardless of the assay cutoff. MAAs that include the LAg-Avidity and BioRad-Avidity assays, with or without viral load and CD4 cell count, provide accurate incidence estimates.     

Estimation of HIV Incidence in a Large,Community-Based,Randomized Clinical Trial: NIMH Project Accept (HIV Prevention Trials Network 043)

Background

National Institute of Mental Health Project Accept (HIV Prevention Trials Network [HPTN] 043) is a large, Phase III, community-randomized, HIV prevention trial conducted in 48 matched communities in Africa and Thailand. The study intervention included enhanced community-based voluntary counseling and testing. The primary endpoint was HIV incidence, assessed in a single, cross-sectional, post-intervention survey of >50,000 participants.

Methods

HIV rapid tests were performed in-country. HIV status was confirmed at a central laboratory in the United States. HIV incidence was estimated using a multi-assay algorithm (MAA) that included the BED capture immunoassay, an avidity assay, CD4 cell count, and HIV viral load.

Results

Data from Thailand was not used in the endpoint analysis because HIV prevalence was low. Overall, 7,361 HIV infections were identified (4 acute, 3 early, and 7,354 established infections). Samples from established infections were analyzed using the MAA; 467 MAA positive samples were identified; 29 of those samples were excluded because they contained antiretroviral drugs. HIV prevalence was 16.5% (range at study sites: 5.93% to 30.8%). HIV incidence was 1.60% (range at study sites: 0.78% to 3.90%).

Conclusions

In this community-randomized trial, a MAA was used to estimate HIV incidence in a single, cross-sectional post-intervention survey. Results from this analysis were subsequently used to compare HIV incidence in the control and intervention communities.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00203749","term_id":"NCT00203749"}}NCT00203749     

The effect of sample handling on cross sectional HIV incidence testing results

Objective(s)

To determine if mishandling prior to testing would make a sample from a chronically infected subject appear recently infected when tested by cross-sectional HIV incidence assays.

Methods

Serum samples from 31 subjects with chronic HIV infection were tested. Samples were subjected to different handling conditions, including incubation at 4°C, 25°C and 37°C, for 1, 3, 7 or 15 days prior to testing. Samples were also subjected to 1,3, 7 and 15 freeze-thaw cycles prior to testing. Samples were tested using the BED capture enzyme immuno assay (BED-CEIA), Vironostika-less sensitive (V-LS), and an avidity assay using the Genetic Systems HIV-1/HIV-2 plus O EIA (avidity assay).

Results

Compared to the sample that was not subjected to any mishandling conditions, for the BED-CEIA, V-LS and avidity assay, there was no significant change in test results for samples incubated at 4°C or 25°C prior to testing. No impact on test results occurred after 15 freeze-thaw cycles. A decrease in assay results was observed when samples were held for 3 days or longer at 37°C prior to testing.

Conclusions

Samples can be subjected up to 15 freeze-thaw cycles without affecting the results the BED-CEIA, Vironostika-LS, or avidity assays. Storing samples at 4°C or 25°C for up to fifteen days prior to testing had no impact on test results. However, storing samples at 37°C for three or more days did affect results obtained with these assays.     

Effect of Natural and ARV-Induced Viral Suppression and Viral Breakthrough on Anti-HIV Antibody Proportion and Avidity in Patients with HIV-1 Subtype B Infection

Background

Viral suppression and viral breakthrough impact the humoral immune response to HIV infection. We evaluated the impact of viral suppression and viral breakthrough on results obtained with two cross-sectional HIV incidence assays.

Methods

All samples were collected from adults in the US who were HIV infected for >2 years. Samples were tested with the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA) which measures the proportion of IgG that is HIV-specific, and with an antibody avidity assay based on the Genetic Systems 1/2+ O ELISA. We tested 281 samples: (1) 30 samples from 18 patients with natural control of HIV-1 infection known as elite controllers or suppressors (2) 72 samples from 18 adults on antiretroviral therapy (ART), with 1 sample before and 2–6 samples after ART initiation, and (3) 179 samples from 20 virally-suppressed adults who had evidence of viral breakthrough receiving ART (>400 copies/ml HIV RNA) and with subsequent viral suppression.

Results

For elite suppressors, 10/18 had BED-CEIA values <0.8 normalized optical density units (OD-n) and these values did not change significantly over time. For patients receiving ART, 14/18 had BED-CEIA values that decreased over time, with a median decrease of 0.42 OD-n (range 0.10 to 0.63)/time point receiving ART. Three patterns of BED-CEIA values were observed during viral breakthrough: (1) values that increased then returned to pre-breakthrough values when viral suppression was re-established, (2) values that increased after viral breakthrough, and (3) values that did not change with viral breakthrough.

Conclusions

Viral suppression and viral breakthrough were associated with changes in BED-CEIA values, reflecting changes in the proportion of HIV-specific IgG. These changes can result in misclassification of patients with long-term HIV infection as recently infected using the BED-CEIA, thereby influencing a falsely high value for cross-sectional incidence estimates.     

NIMH Project Accept (HPTN 043): Results from In-Depth Interviews with a Longitudinal Cohort of Community Members

Introduction

NIMH Project Accept (HPTN 043) is a community- randomized trial to test the safety and efficacy of a community-level intervention designed to increase testing and lower HIV incidence in Tanzania, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Thailand. The evaluation design included a longitudinal study with community members to assess attitudinal and behavioral changes in study outcomes including HIV testing norms, HIV-related discussions, and HIV-related stigma.

Methods

A cohort of 657 individuals across all sites was selected to participate in a qualitative study that involved 4 interviews during the study period. Baseline and 30-month data were summarized according to each outcome, and a qualitative assessment of changes was made at the community level over time.

Results

Members from intervention communities described fewer barriers and greater motivation for testing than those from comparison communities. HIV-related discussions in intervention communities were more grounded in personal testing experiences. A change in HIV-related stigma over time was most pronounced in Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Participants in the intervention communities from these two sites attributed community-level changes in attitudes to project specific activities.

Discussion

The Project Accept intervention was associated with more favorable social norms regarding HIV testing, more personal content in HIV discussions in all study sites, and qualitative changes in HIV-related stigma in two of five sites.     

Drug Use and Sex Work: Competing Risk Factors for Newly Acquired HIV in Yunnan,China

Objective

To investigate the HIV incidence and its related factors among female sex workers (FSWs) in a high prevalence area where injection drug use is also widely documented.

Method

A cross-sectional study of 1642 female sex workers (FSWs) was conducted in Honghe Prefecture of Yunnan Province. Interviewed-questionnaires were administrated to collect information on sexual partnerships, condom use and illicit drug using behaviors etc. Blood samples were collected to test for HIV antibodies, and all HIV seropositive specimens were tested with the BED IgG capture-based enzyme immunosorbent assay (BED-CEIA) to distinguish between new and established HIV infection (<153 days).

Results

15.9% (261/1642) of participants reported ever having used drugs, and 7.4% had injected in recent 3 months. The overall HIV prevalence was 10.2% (168/1642), among which 16.7% (28/168) were identified as recent infections using BED-CEIA. The crude HIV incidence estimated from BED-CEIA results was 4.4 (95%CI 2.8–6.0) /100 person years (PY). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that an illicit drug using history (by either self-reporting or urine opiates testing) was both significant risk factors both for HIV established and recent infection (each p<0.05). Drug using FSWs (DU-FSW) reported more male clients in the previous week, and had significantly higher prevalence of HIV, chlamydia trachomatis and HSV-2 as compared to non DU-FSW (each p<0.05).

Conclusion

Our results show that a history of drug use poses significant risks for both new and established HIV infection among FSWs, and that HIV-incidence among Honghe FSWs is relatively high compared to similar populations. Comprehensive interventions targeted at DU-FSWs'' injection drug using and high risk sexual behaviors are urgently needed to reduce the rapid spread of HIV epidemic.     

Pregnancy does not affect HIV incidence test results obtained using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay or an antibody avidity assay

Background

Accurate incidence estimates are needed for surveillance of the HIV epidemic. HIV surveillance occurs at maternal-child health clinics, but it is not known if pregnancy affects HIV incidence testing.

Methods

We used the BED capture immunoassay (BED) and an antibody avidity assay to test longitudinal samples from 51 HIV-infected Ugandan women infected with subtype A, C, D and intersubtype recombinant HIV who were enrolled in the HIVNET 012 trial (37 baseline samples collected near the time of delivery and 135 follow-up samples collected 3, 4 or 5 years later). Nineteen of 51 women were also pregnant at the time of one or more of the follow-up visits. The BED assay was performed according to the manufacturer''s instructions. The avidity assay was performed using a Genetic Systems HIV-1/HIV-2 + O EIA using 0.1M diethylamine as the chaotropic agent.

Results

During the HIVNET 012 follow-up study, there was no difference in normalized optical density values (OD-n) obtained with the BED assay or in the avidity test results (%) when women were pregnant (n = 20 results) compared to those obtained when women were not pregnant (n = 115; for BED: p = 0.9, generalized estimating equations model; for avidity: p = 0.7, Wilcoxon rank sum). In addition, BED and avidity results were almost exactly the same in longitudinal samples from the 18 women who were pregnant at only one study visit during the follow-up study (p = 0.6, paired t-test).

Conclusions

These results from 51 Ugandan women suggest that any changes in the antibody response to HIV infection that occur during pregnancy are not sufficient to alter results obtained with the BED and avidity assays. Confirmation with larger studies and with other HIV subtypes is needed.     

Antibody Maturation and Viral Diversification in HIV-Infected Women

Introduction

The Post-exposure Prophylaxis in Infants (PEPI)-Malawi trial evaluated infant antiretroviral regimens for prevention of post-natal HIV transmission. A multi-assay algorithm (MAA) that includes the BED capture immunoassay, an avidity assay, CD4 cell count, and viral load was used to identify women who were vs. were not recently infected at the time of enrollment (MAA recent, N = 73; MAA non-recent, N = 2,488); a subset of the women in the MAA non-recent group known to have been HIV infected for at least 2 years before enrollment (known non-recent, N = 54). Antibody maturation and viral diversification were examined in these women.

Methods

Samples collected at enrollment (N = 2,561) and 12–24 months later (N = 1,306) were available for serologic analysis using the BED and avidity assays. A subset of those samples was used for analysis of viral diversity, which was performed using a high resolution melting (HRM) diversity assay. Viral diversity analysis was performed using all available samples from women in the MAA recent group (61 enrollment samples, 38 follow-up samples) and the known non-recent group (43 enrollment samples, 22 follow-up samples). Diversity data from PEPI-Malawi were also compared to similar data from 169 adults in the United States (US) with known recent infection (N = 102) and known non-recent infection (N = 67).

Results

In PEPI-Malawi, results from the BED and avidity assays increased over time in the MAA recent group, but did not change significantly in the MAA non-recent group. At enrollment, HIV diversity was lower in the MAA recent group than in the known non-recent group. HRM diversity assay results from women in PEPI-Malawi were similar to those from adults in the US with known duration of HIV infection.

Conclusions

Antibody maturation and HIV diversification patterns in African women provide additional support for use of the MAA to identify populations with recent HIV infection.     

High burden of prevalent and recently acquired HIV among female sex workers and female HIV voluntary testing center clients in Kigali, Rwanda

Objectives

To estimate HIV prevalence and risk factors in population-based samples of female sex workers (FSW) and female voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) clients in Rwanda.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 800 FSW and 1,250 female VCT clients in Rwanda, which included interviewing and testing for HIV-1/2, HSV-2 and pregnancy, and BED-CEIA and Avidity Index (AI) to identify recent infections among HIV-infected women.

Results

Prevalence of HIV-1, HSV-2, and pregnancy were 24% (95% CI: 21.0–27.0), 59.8% (56.4–63.2), and 7.6% (5.8–9.5) among FSW, and 12.8% (10.9–14.6), 43.2% (40.4–46.0), and 11.4% (9.7–13.3) among VCT clients, respectively. Thirty-five percent of FSW and 25% of VCT clients had never been HIV tested. Per national guidelines, 33% of newly HIV-diagnosed FSW and 36% of VCT clients were already eligible for ART based on CD4<350 cells/µl. Condom use at last sex was higher among FSW (74%) than VCT clients (12%). In age and district of residence-adjusted models, HIV-1 seropositivity was associated with HSV-2 co-infection; recent treatment for sexually transmitted infection (STI); genital symptoms; forced sex; imprisonment; widowhood; and alcohol consumption. Eleven percent of FSW and 12% of VCT clients had recently acquired HIV-1 per BED-CEIA and AI. HSV-2 infection and recent STI treatment were associated with recent HIV infection in both groups, and being married and vaginal cleansing were associated with recent infection before last sex among VCT clients.

Conclusions

This population-based survey reveals a high HIV prevalence and incidence among FSW and female VCT clients in Kigali, the scale of which is masked by the low general-population HIV prevalence in Rwanda. HIV/STI and family planning services should be strengthened.     

Understanding the Potential Impact of a Combination HIV Prevention Intervention in a Hyper-Endemic Community

Objectives

Despite demonstrating only partial efficacy in preventing new infections, available HIV prevention interventions could offer a powerful strategy when combined. In anticipation of combination HIV prevention programs and research studies we estimated the population-level impact of combining effective scalable interventions at high population coverage, determined the factors that influence this impact, and estimated the synergy between the components.

Methods

We used a mathematical model to investigate the effect on HIV incidence of a combination HIV prevention intervention comprised of high coverage of HIV testing and counselling, risk reduction following HIV diagnosis, male circumcision for HIV-uninfected men, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected persons. The model was calibrated to data for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV prevalence is approximately 23%.

Results

Compared to current levels of HIV testing, circumcision, and ART, the combined intervention with ART initiation according to current guidelines could reduce HIV incidence by 47%, from 2.3 new infections per 100 person-years (pyar) to 1.2 per 100 pyar within 4 years and by almost 60%, to 1 per 100 pyar, after 25 years. Short-term impact is driven primarily by uptake of testing and reductions in risk behaviour following testing while long-term effects are driven by periodic HIV testing and retention in ART programs. If the combination prevention program incorporated HIV treatment upon diagnosis, incidence could be reduced by 63% after 4 years and by 76% (to about 0.5 per 100 pyar) after 15 years. The full impact of the combination interventions accrues over 10–15 years. Synergy is demonstrated between the intervention components.

Conclusion

High coverage combination of evidence-based strategies could generate substantial reductions in population HIV incidence in an African generalized HIV epidemic setting. The full impact could be underestimated by the short assessment duration of typical evaluations.     

Statistical power and estimation of incidence rate ratios obtained from BED incidence testing for evaluating HIV interventions among young people

Background

The objectives of this study were to determine the capacity of BED incidence testing to a) estimate the effect of a HIV prevention intervention and b) provide adequate statistical power, when used among young people from sub-Saharan African settings with high HIV incidence rates.

Methods

Firstly, after having elaborated plausible scenarios based on empirical data and the characteristics of the BED HIV-1 Capture EIA (BED) assay, we conducted statistical calculations to determine the BED theoretical power and HIV incidence rate ratio (IRR) associated with an intervention when using BED incidence testing. Secondly, we simulated a cross-sectional study conducted in a population among whom an HIV intervention was rolled out. Simulated data were analyzed using a log-linear Poisson model to recalculate the IRR and its confidence interval, and estimate the BED practical power. Calculations were conducted with and without corrections for misclassifications.

Results

Calculations showed that BED incidence testing can yield a BED theoretical power of 75% or more of the power that can be obtained in a classical cohort study conducted over a duration equal to the BED window period. Statistical analyses using simulated populations showed that the effect of a prevention intervention can be estimated with precision using classical statistical analysis of BED incidence testing data, even with an imprecise knowledge of the characteristics of the BED assay. The BED practical power was lower but of the same magnitude as the BED theoretical power.

Conclusions

BED incidence testing can be applied to reasonably small samples to achieve good statistical power when used among young people to estimate IRR.     

Expanding HIV testing efforts in concentrated epidemic settings: a population-based survey from rural Vietnam

Background

To improve HIV prevention and care programs, it is important to understand the uptake of HIV testing and to identify population segments in need of increased HIV testing. This is particularly crucial in countries with concentrated HIV epidemics, where HIV prevalence continues to rise in the general population. This study analyzes determinants of HIV testing in a rural Vietnamese population in order to identify potential access barriers and areas for promoting HIV testing services.

Methods

A population-based cross-sectional survey of 1874 randomly sampled adults was linked to pregnancy, migration and economic cohort data from a demographic surveillance site (DSS). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors were associated with having tested for HIV.

Results

The age-adjusted prevalence of ever-testing for HIV was 7.6%; however 79% of those who reported feeling at-risk of contracting HIV had never tested. In multivariate analysis, younger age (aOR 1.85, 95% CI 1.14–3.01), higher economic status (aOR 3.4, 95% CI 2.21–5.22), and semi-urban residence (aOR 2.37, 95% CI 1.53–3.66) were associated with having been tested for HIV. HIV testing rates did not differ between women of reproductive age who had recently been pregnant and those who had not.

Conclusions

We found low testing uptake (6%) among pregnant women despite an existing prevention of mother-to-child HIV testing policy, and lower-than-expected testing among persons who felt that they were at-risk of HIV. Poverty and residence in a more geographically remote location were associated with less HIV testing. In addition to current HIV testing strategies focusing on high-risk groups, we recommend targeting HIV testing in concentrated HIV epidemic settings to focus on a scaled-up provision of antenatal testing. Additional recommendations include removing financial and geographic access barriers to client-initiated testing, and encouraging provider-initiated testing of those who believe that they are at-risk of HIV.     

Transitions from injection-drug-use-concentrated to self-sustaining heterosexual HIV epidemics: patterns in the international data

Background

Injecting drug use continues to be a primary driver of HIV epidemics in many parts of the world. Many people who inject drugs (PWID) are sexually active, so it is possible that high-seroprevalence HIV epidemics among PWID may initiate self-sustaining heterosexual transmission epidemics.

Methods

Fourteen countries that had experienced high seroprevalence (<20%) HIV epidemics among PWID and had reliable data for injection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual cases of HIV or AIDS were identified. Graphs of newly reported HIV or AIDS cases among PWID and heterosexuals were constructed to identify temporal relationships between the two types of epidemics. The year in which newly reported cases among heterosexuals surpassed newly reported cases among PWID, aspects of the epidemic curves, and epidemic case histories were analyzed to assess whether it was “plausible” or “highly unlikely” that the HIV epidemic among PWID might have initiated the heterosexual epidemic in each country.

Results

Transitions have occurred in 11 of the 14 countries. Two types of temporal relationships between IDU and heterosexual HIV epidemics were identified, rapid high incidence transitions vs. delayed, low incidence transitions. In six countries it appears “plausible” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic, and in five countries it appears “highly unlikely” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic. A rapid decline in incidence among PWID after the peak year of new cases and national income were the best predictors of the “highly unlikely” initiation of a heterosexual epidemic.

Discussion

Transitions from IDU concentrated epidemics to heterosexual epidemics are common in countries with high seroprevalence among PWID though there are distinct types of transitions. Interventions to immediately reduce HIV incidence among PWID may reduce the likelihood that an IDU epidemic may initiate a heterosexual epidemic.     

Projecting HIV Transmission in Japan

Background

Little is known about the epidemiology of HIV in Japan, though newly-identified cases amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) show an increasing trend. Predictions of future trends in the HIV epidemic are essential to identify suitable interventions.

Methods

A deterministic, compartmental model was developed that incorporated risk groups, disease stages, and treatment and testing parameters. This model was calibrated against current figures on new infections and run over 30 years to identify trends in prevalence amongst MSM, low-risk men and low-risk women. Multivariate sensitivity analysis was used to estimate sensitivity ranges for all outcomes.

Results

Without new interventions amongst MSM in Japan, HIV prevalence will climb from its current rate of 2.1% to 10.4% (sensitivity range 7.4% to 18.7%), while HIV prevalence among low-risk men and women will likely decline. With small changes in safer sex behavior and testing rates, HIV prevalence can remain stable or even decline amongst MSM.

Conclusions

Japan is at risk of an epidemic of HIV amongst MSM unless significant changes are made to its current public health intervention framework. More research is necessary to understand the key drivers of the epidemic in Japan.     

HPTN 071 (PopART): A Cluster-Randomized Trial of the Population Impact of an HIV Combination Prevention Intervention Including Universal Testing and Treatment: Mathematical Model

Background

The HPTN 052 trial confirmed that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can nearly eliminate HIV transmission from successfully treated HIV-infected individuals within couples. Here, we present the mathematical modeling used to inform the design and monitoring of a new trial aiming to test whether widespread provision of ART is feasible and can substantially reduce population-level HIV incidence.

Methods and Findings

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial is a three-arm cluster-randomized trial of 21 large population clusters in Zambia and South Africa, starting in 2013. A combination prevention package including home-based voluntary testing and counseling, and ART for HIV positive individuals, will be delivered in arms A and B, with ART offered universally in arm A and according to national guidelines in arm B. Arm C will be the control arm. The primary endpoint is the cumulative three-year HIV incidence.We developed a mathematical model of heterosexual HIV transmission, informed by recent data on HIV-1 natural history. We focused on realistically modeling the intervention package. Parameters were calibrated to data previously collected in these communities and national surveillance data.We predict that, if targets are reached, HIV incidence over three years will drop by >60% in arm A and >25% in arm B, relative to arm C. The considerable uncertainty in the predicted reduction in incidence justifies the need for a trial. The main drivers of this uncertainty are possible community-level behavioral changes associated with the intervention, uptake of testing and treatment, as well as ART retention and adherence.

Conclusions

The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial intervention could reduce HIV population-level incidence by >60% over three years. This intervention could serve as a paradigm for national or supra-national implementation. Our analysis highlights the role mathematical modeling can play in trial development and monitoring, and more widely in evaluating the impact of treatment as prevention.     

Controlling HIV Epidemics among Injection Drug Users: Eight Years of Cross-Border HIV Prevention Interventions in Vietnam and China

Introduction

HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002–2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China.

Methods

Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples.

Results

We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [p<0.001], Ning Ming: from 17% to 11% [p = 0.003], and Ha Giang: from 51% to 18% [p<0.001]), reductions not experienced in other provinces without such interventions. There were significant declines in HIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36–48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months.

Discussion

This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication.     

Control of (Multi)Drug Resistance and Tuberculosis Incidence over 23 Years in the Context of a Well-Supported Tuberculosis Programme in Rural Malawi

Background

The rise in tuberculosis (TB) incidence following generalized HIV epidemics can overwhelm TB control programmes in resource-limited settings, sometimes accompanied by rising rates of drug resistance. This has led to claims that DOTS-based TB control has failed in such settings. However, few studies have described the effect of a sustained and well-supported DOTS programme on TB incidence and drug resistance over a long period. We present long-term trends in incidence and drug resistance in rural Malawi.

Methods

Karonga District in northern Malawi has an adult HIV prevalence of ∼10%. A research group, the Karonga Prevention Study, collaborates with the National Tuberculosis Programme to support core TB control activities. Bacteriological, demographic and clinical (including HIV status) information from all patients starting TB treatment in the District have been recorded since 1988. During that period isolates from each culture-positive TB patient were exported for drug sensitivity testing. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been widely available since 2005.

Results

Incidence of new smear-positive adult TB peaked at 124/100,000/year in the mid-90s, but has since fallen to 87/100,000/year. Drug sensitivity information was available for 95% (3132/3307) of all culture-positive cases. Initial resistance to isoniazid was around 6% with no evidence of an increase. Fewer than 1% of episodes involved a multi-drug resistant strain.

Discussion

In this setting with a generalised HIV epidemic and medium TB burden, a well-supported DOTS programme enhanced by routine culture and drug sensitivity testing may well have reduced TB incidence and maintained drug resistance at low levels.     

Incidence of TB and HIV in Prospectively Followed Household Contacts of TB Index Patients in South Africa

Objective

To report the incidence rates of TB and HIV in household contacts of index patients diagnosed with TB.

Design

A prospective cohort study in the Matlosana sub-district of North West Province, South Africa.

Methods

Contacts of index TB patients received TB and HIV testing after counseling at their first household visit and were then followed up a year later, in 2010. TB or HIV diagnoses that occurred during the period were determined.

Results

For 2,377 household contacts, the overall observed TB incidence rate was 1.3 per 100 person years (95% CI 0.9–1.9/100py) and TB incidence for individuals who were HIV-infected and HIV seronegative at baseline was 5.4/100py (95% CI 2.9–9.0/100py) and 0.7/100py (95% CI 0.3–1.4/100py), respectively. The overall HIV incidence rate was 2.2/100py (95% CI 1.3–8.4/100py).

Conclusions

In the year following a household case finding visit when household contacts were tested for TB and HIV, the incidence rate of both active TB and HIV infection was found to be extremely high. Clearly, implementing proven strategies to prevent HIV acquisition and preventing TB transmission and progression to disease remains a priority in settings such as South Africa.