A sticky situation: the unexpected stability of malaria elimination

Malaria eradication involves eliminating malaria from every country where transmission occurs. Current theory suggests that the post-elimination challenges of remaining malaria-free by stopping transmission from imported malaria will have onerous operational and financial requirements. Although resurgent malaria has occurred in a majority of countries that tried but failed to eliminate malaria, a review of resurgence in countries that successfully eliminated finds only four such failures out of 50 successful programmes. Data documenting malaria importation and onwards transmission in these countries suggests malaria transmission potential has declined by more than 50-fold (i.e. more than 98%) since before elimination. These outcomes suggest that elimination is a surprisingly stable state. Elimination''s ‘stickiness’ must be explained either by eliminating countries starting off qualitatively different from non-eliminating countries or becoming different once elimination was achieved. Countries that successfully eliminated were wealthier and had lower baseline endemicity than those that were unsuccessful, but our analysis shows that those same variables were at best incomplete predictors of the patterns of resurgence. Stability is reinforced by the loss of immunity to disease and by the health system''s increasing capacity to control malaria transmission after elimination through routine treatment of cases with antimalarial drugs supplemented by malaria outbreak control. Human travel patterns reinforce these patterns; as malaria recedes, fewer people carry malaria from remote endemic areas to remote areas where transmission potential remains high. Establishment of an international resource with backup capacity to control large outbreaks can make elimination stickier, increase the incentives for countries to eliminate, and ensure steady progress towards global eradication. Although available evidence supports malaria elimination''s stickiness at moderate-to-low transmission in areas with well-developed health systems, it is not yet clear if such patterns will hold in all areas. The sticky endpoint changes the projected costs of maintaining elimination and makes it substantially more attractive for countries acting alone, and it makes spatially progressive elimination a sensible strategy for a malaria eradication endgame.     

Molecular surveillance and temporal monitoring of malaria parasites in focal Vietnamese provinces

In the past decade substantial reduction in malaria morbidity and mortality has been observed through well-implemented case management and vector control strategies. India has also achieved a significant reduction in malaria burden in 2018 and has committed to eliminate malaria by 2030. The Mandla Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project (MEDP) was started in 2017 in 1233 villages of District Mandla to demonstrate malaria elimination in a tribal district with hard-to-reach areas was possible using active and passive surveillance, case management, vector control, and targeted information, education and communication campaigns. An operational plan was developed to strengthen the existing surveillance and malaria elimination systems, through fortnightly active case detection to ensure that all cases including those that are introduced into the communities are rapidly identified and treated promptly. The plan also focused on the reduction of human-mosquito contact through the use of Long-Lasting Insecticial Nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spray (IRS). The operational plan was modified in view of the present COVID-19 pandemic by creating systems of assistance for the local administration for COVID-related work while ensuring the operational integrity of malaria elimination efforts. The use of MEDP study design and operational plan, with its built-in management control systems, has yielded significant (91%) reduction of indigenous cases of malaria during the period from June 2017 to May 2020. The malaria positivity rate was 0.33% in 2017–18, 0.13% in 2018–19, and 0.06% in 2019–20. Mass screening revealed 0.18% malaria positivity in September–October 2018, followed by 0.06% in June 2019, and 0.03% in December 2019, and these were mostly asymptomatic cases in the community. The project has been able to sustain the gains of the past three years during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides the study design and the operational plan for malaria elimination in a high-burden district of Central India, which presented difficulties of hard to reach areas, forest malaria, and complex epidemiology of urban and rural malaria. The lessons learned could be used for malaria elimination efforts in rest of the country and other parts of South Asia with comparable demography and epidemiology.     

Estimation of Plasmodium falciparum transmission using multiepitope chimeric antigen in the postelimination phase in Yunnan,China

BackgroundThe continuous monitoring of malaria transmission intensity is still required to maintain elimination status after reaching the malaria elimination stage. In this study, serological surveillance with multiepitope artificial antigen was used to assess the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum in Yunnan, China, where malaria elimination has just been achieved, to provide data to support malaria control in the postelimination period.MethodsSamples were collected in three border counties and one inland county in Yunnan Province in 2016 using a stratified whole-group sampling method. Fingerstick blood was collected from all participants, and antibodies to Malaria Random Constructed Antigen-1 (M. RCAg-1) were detected by indirect ELISA. The transmission intensity of P. falciparum malaria was estimated using a catalytic conversion model based on the maximum likelihood of generating a community seroconversion rate (SCR).ResultsA total of 5566 samples were collected. There was no statistically significant difference in antibody level between the inland county and the nonendemic area, but the antibody level in border counties was significantly higher than those in the inland county and the nonendemic control area. No seropositive cases were found in Yanjin County, and the seropositivity rate increased with age in the three border counties. The highest intensity of P. falciparum malaria transmission was in Zhenkang County (SCR = 0.0030, CI: 0.0029, 0.0031), followed by Gengma County (SCR = 0.0013, CI: 0.0012, 0.0015) and Yingjiang County (SCR = 0.00088, CI: 0.00083, 0.00090).ConclusionThe transmission intensity of P. falciparum malaria in Yunnan Province has obviously decreased in recent years, but for the border areas where malaria has just been eliminated, the transmission intensity will not immediately drop to zero, and it still needs to be monitored for a period of time to maintain malaria elimination status.     

A Country on the Verge of Malaria Elimination – The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Significant headway has been made in the global fight against malaria in the past decade and as more countries enter the elimination phase, attention is now focused on identifying effective strategies to shrink the malaria map. Saudi Arabia experienced an outbreak of malaria in 1998, but is now on the brink of malaria elimination, with just 82 autochthonous cases reported in 2012. A review of published and grey literature was performed to identify the control strategies that have contributed to this achievement. The number of autochthonous malaria cases in Saudi Arabia decreased by 99.8% between 1998 and 2012. The initial steep decline in malaria cases coincided with a rapid scaling up of vector control measures. Incidence continued to be reported at low levels (between 0.01 and 0.1 per 1,000 of the population) until the adoption of artesunate plus sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine as first line treatment and the establishment of a regional partnership for a malaria-free Arabian Peninsula, both of which occurred in 2007. Since 2007, incidence has decreased by nearly an order of magnitude. Malaria incidence is now very low, but a high proportion of imported cases, continued potential for autochthonous transmission, and an increased proportion of cases attributable to Plasmodium vivax all present challenges to Saudi Arabia as they work toward elimination by 2015.     

Plasmodium vivax gametocytes and transmission

Malaria elimination means cessation of parasite transmission. At present, the declining malaria incidence in many countries has made elimination a feasible goal. Transmission control has thus been placed at the center of the national malaria control programs. The efficient transmission of Plasmodium vivax from humans to mosquitoes is a key factor that helps perpetuate malaria in endemic areas. A better understanding of transmission is crucial to the success of elimination efforts. Biological delineation of the parasite transmission process is important for identifying and prioritizing new targets of intervention. Identification of the infectious parasite reservoir in the community is key to devising an effective elimination strategy. Here we describe the fundamental characteristics of P. vivax gametocytes - the dynamics of their production, longevity, and the relationship with the total parasitemia - as well as recent advances in the molecular understanding of parasite sexual development. In relation to malaria elimination, factors influencing the human infectivity and the current evidence for a role of asymptomatic carriers in transmission are presented.     

Is vaccine the magic bullet for malaria elimination? A reality check

Malaria remains a major health burden especially for the developing countries. Despite concerted efforts at using the current control tools, such as bed nets, anti malarial drugs and vector control measures, the disease is accountable for close to a million deaths annually. Vaccines have been proposed as a necessary addition to the armamentarium that could work towards elimination and eventual eradication of malaria in view of their historical significance in combating infectious diseases. However, because malaria vaccines would work differently depending on the targeted parasite stage, this review addresses the potential impact various malaria vaccine types could have on transmission. Further, because of the wide variation in the epidemiology of malaria across the endemic regions, this paper proposes that the ideal approach to malaria control ought to be tailor-made depending on the specific context. Finally, it suggests that although it is highly desirable to anticipate and aim for malaria elimination and eventual eradication, many affected regions should prioritize reduction of mortality and morbidity before aspiring for elimination.     

Strengthening of the clinical research capacity for malaria: a shared responsibility

Malaria remains a major health burden especially for the developing countries. Despite concerted efforts at using the current control tools, such as bed nets, anti malarial drugs and vector control measures, the disease is accountable for close to a million deaths annually. Vaccines have been proposed as a necessary addition to the armamentarium that could work towards elimination and eventual eradication of malaria in view of their historical significance in combating infectious diseases. However, because malaria vaccines would work differently depending on the targeted parasite stage, this review addresses the potential impact various malaria vaccine types could have on transmission. Further, because of the wide variation in the epidemiology of malaria across the endemic regions, this paper proposes that the ideal approach to malaria control ought to be tailor-made depending on the specific context. Finally, it suggests that although it is highly desirable to anticipate and aim for malaria elimination and eventual eradication, many affected regions should prioritize reduction of mortality and morbidity before aspiring for elimination.

     

Cryptic erythrocytic infections in Plasmodium vivax,another challenge to its elimination

Human malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax infection (vivax malaria) is a major global health issue. It is the most geographically widespread form of the disease, accounting for 7 million annual clinical cases, the majority of cases in America and Asia and an estimation of over 2.5 billion people living under risk of infection. The general perception towards vivax malaria has shifted recently, following a series of reports, from being viewed as a benign infection to the recognition of its potential for more severe manifestations including fatal cases. However, the underlying pathogenic mechanisms of vivax malaria remain largely unresolved. Asymptomatic carriers of malaria parasites are a major challenge for malaria elimination. In the case of P. vivax, it has been widely accepted that the only source of cryptic parasites is hypnozoite dormant stages. Here, we will review new evidence indicating that cryptic erythrocytic niches outside the liver, in particular in the spleen and bone marrow, can represent a major source of asymptomatic infections. The origin of such parasites is being controversial and many key gaps in the knowledge of such infections remain unanswered. Yet, as parasites in these niches seem to be sheltered from immune response and antimalarial drugs, research on this area should be reinforced if elimination of malaria is to be achieved. Last, we will glimpse into the role of reticulocyte-derived exosomes, extracellular vesicles of endocytic origin, as intercellular communicators likely involved in the formation of such cryptic erythrocytic infections.     

Tools and Strategies for Malaria Control and Elimination: What Do We Need to Achieve a Grand Convergence in Malaria?

Progress made in malaria control during the past decade has prompted increasing global dialogue on malaria elimination and eradication. The product development pipeline for malaria has never been stronger, with promising new tools to detect, treat, and prevent malaria, including innovative diagnostics, medicines, vaccines, vector control products, and improved mechanisms for surveillance and response. There are at least 25 projects in the global malaria vaccine pipeline, as well as 47 medicines and 13 vector control products. In addition, there are several next-generation diagnostic tools and reference methods currently in development, with many expected to be introduced in the next decade. The development and adoption of these tools, bolstered by strategies that ensure rapid uptake in target populations, intensified mechanisms for information management, surveillance, and response, and continued financial and political commitment are all essential to achieving global eradication.     

Serologic markers in relation to parasite exposure history help to estimate transmission dynamics of Plasmodium vivax

Plasmodium vivax infection has been gaining attention because of its re-emergence in several parts of the world. Southeastern Turkey is one of the places in which persistent focal malaria caused exclusively by P. vivax parasites occurs. Although control and elimination studies have been underway for many years, no detailed study has been conducted to understand the mechanisms underlying the ineffective control of malaria in this region. Here, for the first time, using serologic markers we try to extract as much information as possible in this region to get a glimpse of P. vivax transmission. We conducted a sero-immunological study, evaluating antibody responses of individuals living in Sanliurfa to four different P. vivax antigens; three blood-stage antigens (PvMSP1₁₉, PvAMA1-ecto, and PvSERA4) and one pre-erythrocytic stage antigen (PvCSP). The results suggest that a prior history of malaria infection and age can be determining factors for the levels and sustainability of naturally acquired antibodies. Significantly higher antibody responses to all the studied antigens were observed in blood smear-negative individuals with a prior history of malaria infection. Moreover, these individuals were significantly older than blood smear-negative individuals with no prior history of infection. These data from an area of sole P. vivax-endemic region may have important implications for the global malaria control/elimination programs and vaccine design.     

Optimal Population-Level Infection Detection Strategies for Malaria Control and Elimination in a Spatial Model of Malaria Transmission

Mass campaigns with antimalarial drugs are potentially a powerful tool for local elimination of malaria, yet current diagnostic technologies are insufficiently sensitive to identify all individuals who harbor infections. At the same time, overtreatment of uninfected individuals increases the risk of accelerating emergence of drug resistance and losing community acceptance. Local heterogeneity in transmission intensity may allow campaign strategies that respond to index cases to successfully target subpatent infections while simultaneously limiting overtreatment. While selective targeting of hotspots of transmission has been proposed as a strategy for malaria control, such targeting has not been tested in the context of malaria elimination. Using household locations, demographics, and prevalence data from a survey of four health facility catchment areas in southern Zambia and an agent-based model of malaria transmission and immunity acquisition, a transmission intensity was fit to each household based on neighborhood age-dependent malaria prevalence. A set of individual infection trajectories was constructed for every household in each catchment area, accounting for heterogeneous exposure and immunity. Various campaign strategies—mass drug administration, mass screen and treat, focal mass drug administration, snowball reactive case detection, pooled sampling, and a hypothetical serological diagnostic—were simulated and evaluated for performance at finding infections, minimizing overtreatment, reducing clinical case counts, and interrupting transmission. For malaria control, presumptive treatment leads to substantial overtreatment without additional morbidity reduction under all but the highest transmission conditions. Compared with untargeted approaches, selective targeting of hotspots with drug campaigns is an ineffective tool for elimination due to limited sensitivity of available field diagnostics. Serological diagnosis is potentially an effective tool for malaria elimination but requires higher coverage to achieve similar results to mass distribution of presumptive treatment.     

The economic benefits of malaria elimination: do they include increases in tourism?

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Policy makers have speculated that one of the economic benefits of malaria elimination includes increases in foreign direct investment, particularly tourism. METHODS: The study examines the empirical relationship between the demand for travel and malaria cases in two countries with large tourism industries around the time in which they carried out malaria-elimination campaigns. In Mauritius, this analysis examines historical yearly tourist arrivals and malaria cases from 1978-1999, accounting for the background secular trend of increasing international travel. In Dominican Republic, a country embarking upon malaria elimination, it employs a time-series analyses of the monthly, international, tourist arrivals from 1998-2010 to determine whether the timing of significant deviations in tourist arrivals coincides with malaria outbreaks. RESULTS: While naive relationships exist in both cases, the results show that the relationships between tourist arrival and malaria cases are relatively weak and statistically insignificant once secular confounders are accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: This suggests that any economic benefits from tourism that may be derived from actively pursuing elimination in countries that may have high tourism potential are likely to be small when measured at a national level. Rather, tourism benefits are likely to be experienced with greater impact in more concentrated tourist areas within countries, and future studies should seek to assess this relationship at a regional or local level.     

Bangladesh in the era of malaria elimination

Bangladesh has dramatically reduced malaria by 93% from 2008 to 2020. The strategy has been district-wise, phased elimination; however, the last districts targeted for elimination include remote, forested regions which present several challenges for prevention, detection, and treatment of malaria. These districts border Myanmar which harbors Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites resistant to artemisinins, key drugs used in artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) that have been vital for control programs. Challenges in monitoring emergence of artemisinin resistance (AR), tracking parasite reservoirs, changes in vector behavior and responses to insecticides, as well as other environmental and host factors (including the migration of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals; FDMNs) may pose added hazards in the final phase of eliminating malaria in Bangladesh.     

A research agenda for malaria eradication: cross-cutting issues for eradication

Discipline-specific Malaria Eradication Research Agenda (malERA) Consultative Groups have recognized several cross-cutting issues that must be addressed to prevent repetition of some of the mistakes of past malaria elimination campaigns in future programs. Integrated research is required to develop a decision-making framework for the switch from malaria control to elimination. Similarly, a strong economic case is needed for the very long-term financial support that is essential for elimination. Another cross-cutting priority is the development of improved measures of intensity of transmission, especially at low and nonrandom levels. Because sustained malaria elimination is dependent on a functioning health system, a further key cross-cutting research question is to determine how inputs for malaria can strengthen health systems, information systems, and overall health outcomes. Implementation of elimination programs must also be accompanied by capacity building and training to allow the assessment of the impact of new combinations of interventions, new roles for different individuals, and the operational research that is needed to facilitate program expansion. Finally, because community engagement, knowledge management, communication, political, and multisectoral support are critical but poorly understood success factors for malaria elimination, integrated research into these issues is vital.     

A nowcasting framework for correcting for reporting delays in malaria surveillance

Time lags in reporting to national surveillance systems represent a major barrier for the control of infectious diseases, preventing timely decision making and resource allocation. This issue is particularly acute for infectious diseases like malaria, which often impact rural and remote communities the hardest. In Guyana, a country located in South America, poor connectivity among remote malaria-endemic regions hampers surveillance efforts, making reporting delays a key challenge for elimination. Here, we analyze 13 years of malaria surveillance data, identifying key correlates of time lags between clinical cases occurring and being added to the central data system. We develop nowcasting methods that use historical patterns of reporting delays to estimate occurred-but-not-reported monthly malaria cases. To assess their performance, we implemented them retrospectively, using only information that would have been available at the time of estimation, and found that they substantially enhanced the estimates of malaria cases. Specifically, we found that the best performing models achieved up to two-fold improvements in accuracy (or error reduction) over known cases in selected regions. Our approach provides a simple, generalizable tool to improve malaria surveillance in endemic countries and is currently being implemented to help guide existing resource allocation and elimination efforts.     

The malaria cauldron of Southeast Asia: conflicting strategies of contiguous nation states

The past half-century or so has witnessed dramatic failures but also some successes in control of malaria in the world at large. South and Southeast Asia have had their share of both outcomes, a scenario that reflects many variables in control programs: technology, management strategy, human and financial resources. However, at least equally culpable have been major wars and minor conflicts, economic growth and stagnation, inequity of opportunity, urbanisation, deforestation, changing transport and communications. The history of malaria is thus an integral part of the broader political and economic evolution of the region, as well as the story of the wisdom and unwisdom of malaria specialists. In positive reflection on the latter, systematic organisational effort using standard tools of trade has seen the gradual elimination of major malaria foci from central plain regions of a number of nations in this large region, with residual foci at forested border areas. In many cases there is good evidence of sustainability of elimination in defined areas but the differing success stories reflect in part conflicting strategies in neighboring nation states. On the other hand, physical conflicts, population migration, inequitable economic change, border instability and many other socio-economic variables can be clearly seen to undermine the most ingenuous strategies. Undoubtedly the single most important negative ingredient is the rise and spread of multi-drug resistant falciparum malaria that has its epicenter in Southeast Asia, from which it threatens the world in insidious fashion. Containment of this phenomenon has been the focus of attention for 30 years, more particularly the past decade, and represents the greatest challenge at this time in predicting the continuing impact of malaria globally on human history. So too does the compelling necessity to link malaria control with macro and micro economic planning. This challenge impinges on the sovereignty of individual nations in this region, for they exist in contiguity, so that successful applications of technology require collaborative political determination.     

Overview of malaria control in the Americas

The malaria endemic countries of the Americas have adopted in 1992 the WHO Global Malaria Control Strategy whose difficulties of implementation have been compounded to a major reform in the health sector, as the countries adjust to conform to financial scarcity and new economic policies. Most countries of the Region have reoriented its control program from eradication of malaria to the elimination of malaria mortality and morbidity. The Region has advanced towards these objectives having already reduced its mortality by 60% and is now in the final stages of applying new tools to control transmission and rapidly advance to reduce the incidence of malaria in the Americas.     

International funding for malaria control in relation to populations at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum transmission

Background

The international financing of malaria control has increased significantly in the last ten years in parallel with calls to halve the malaria burden by the year 2015. The allocation of funds to countries should reflect the size of the populations at risk of infection, disease, and death. To examine this relationship, we compare an audit of international commitments with an objective assessment of national need: the population at risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in 2007.

Methods and Findings

The national distributions of populations at risk of stable P. falciparum transmission were projected to the year 2007 for each of 87 P. falciparum–endemic countries. Systematic online- and literature-based searches were conducted to audit the international funding commitments made for malaria control by major donors between 2002 and 2007. These figures were used to generate annual malaria funding allocation (in US dollars) per capita population at risk of stable P. falciparum in 2007. Almost US$1 billion are distributed each year to the 1.4 billion people exposed to stable P. falciparum malaria risk. This is less than US$1 per person at risk per year. Forty percent of this total comes from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Substantial regional and national variations in disbursements exist. While the distribution of funds is found to be broadly appropriate, specific high population density countries receive disproportionately less support to scale up malaria control. Additionally, an inadequacy of current financial commitments by the international community was found: under-funding could be from 50% to 450%, depending on which global assessment of the cost required to scale up malaria control is adopted.

Conclusions

Without further increases in funding and appropriate targeting of global malaria control investment it is unlikely that international goals to halve disease burdens by 2015 will be achieved. Moreover, the additional financing requirements to move from malaria control to malaria elimination have not yet been considered by the scientific or international community.