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Genetically engineered fish with enhanced phenotypic traits have yet to be implemented into commercial applications. This is partly because of the difficulties in reliably predicting the ecological risk of transgenic fish should they escape into the wild. The ecological consequences of the phenotypic differences between transgenic and wild-type fish, as determined in the laboratory, can be uncertain because of genotype-by-environment effects (GXE). Additionally, we are limited in our ability to extrapolate simple phenotypes to the complex ecological interactions that occur in nature. Genetic background can also shape the phenotypic effects of transgenes, which, over time and among different wild populations, can make risk assessments a continuously evolving target. These uncertainties suggest that assessments of transgenic fish in contained facilities need to be conducted under as wide a range of conditions as possible, and that efficacious physical and biological containment strategies remain as crucial approaches to ensure the safe application of transgenic fish technology.  相似文献   

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True risk assessments address the probability of a future risk occurring given a certain set of circumstances. However, “effects‐initiated assessments”; or “retrospective assessments”; often are improperly included under the broad appellation of “risk assessment”; and are conducted when an apparently adverse effect is seen in some environmental component and the question of cause (i.e., etiology) is raised. Base line risk assessments at Superfund sites or for Natural Resource Damage Assessments are examples of effects‐initiated assessments. We argue here that this type of study is not a risk assessment, either by strict definition of terminology or by logical approach taken in answering the posed question (s), and should more properly be called “diagnostic ecology.”; Diagnostic ecology starts from the premise that ecological effects have occurred and exposure to a Stressor has taken place. The problem then is to pose all possible etiologies and utilize deductive logic to systematically eliminate each agent except for one as the actual cause. A risk assessment, on the other hand, employs inductive reasoning. That is, hypotheses are generated about the possible sources of a stressor and the possible outcome if exposure occurs. Both exercises require an understanding of the ecological relationships of the various components in the ecosystem, both need an understanding of die cause‐and‐effect relationships of agents, and both require a proper framing of the questions being asked. However, risk assessors should not try to fit all environmental impact assessments into a single framework, but rather should recognize that biomedical techniques are better suited for solving diagnostic riddles than are prospective risk assessment approaches.  相似文献   

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LCA is a system-wide assessment, and the LCIA phase is confronted with the difficulties of local and regional effects in a number of impact categories. We integrate three different environmental techniques to demonstrate how these effects can be addressed in an environmental assessment. The techniques are life cycle inventory, environmental fate models, and an ecological impact assessment using fuzzy expert systems. Results of the LCI are mass and energy flows. In the environmental fate modelling step these mass flows are transformed into concentration and immission values by dispersion-reaction models. A generalised fuzzy expert system for the environmental mechanisms compares calculated exposure with site specific buffering capacities and formulates a generalised dose-response relationship. This generalised fuzzy expert system is used as a template for the assessment of local and regional environmental impacts. An application of this integrated approach is shown for a practical problem: production of magnesium car components. The environmental fate of nitrogen oxides which are released due to the major combustion source within that production system is simulated. Fuzzy expert models for crop damage, soil acidification and eutrophication determine the possible environmental impact of the immited nitrogen oxides. The important methodological extension of this integrated approach is a regionalised impact assessment depending on the spatial distribution of environmental characteristics.  相似文献   

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One of the more fascinating phenomena in nature is animal mass migrations and in oceans and freshwaters, diel variations in depth distribution of zooplankton are a phenomenon that has intrigued scientists for more than a century. In our study, we show that zooplankton are able to assess the threat level of ultraviolet radiation and adjust their depth distribution to this level at a very fine tuned scale. Moreover, predation risk induces a size-structured depth separation, such that small individuals, which we show are less vulnerable to predation than larger, make a risk assessment and continue feeding in surface waters during day, offering a competitive release from down-migrating larger animals. Hence, we mechanistically show that such simple organisms as invertebrate zooplankton are able to make individual, size-specific decisions regarding how to compromise between threats from both predators and UV radiation, and adjust their diel migratory patterns accordingly.  相似文献   

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Carcinogens influence both the initiation of abnormal cells and the subsequent promotion of such cells into neoplasia. Certain other insults seem limited to the stimulation of cellular proliferation and of carcinogenic potentiation. Common examples include surgical, mechanical, chemical, and temperature wounding of tissue followed by healing. In addition, certain hyperplastic growth induced by some chemicals may also enhance tumorigenesis. We propose that the quantification of carcinogenic potentiation may derive from a common-index-quantity estimated according to enhanced cell proliferation resulting from cytotoxicity or toxic hyperplasia induced by a specific exposure. At this time, it is not possible to define, in a restrictive sense, the molecular events which are critical to potentiation but the processes of cell proliferation resulting from cytotoxicity/hyperplasia seem to serve as indices which contain the necessary (and perhaps several secondary) biological responses. The unique advantage is that cell-culture, animal, and human-level studies can be used to evaluate certain parameters of the mathematical model for an untested treatment protocol or chemical insult suspected to be a cofactor in tumorigenesis. The main thrust of this paper is to propose that tumorigenesis should be studied in terms of cellular-population kinetics in response to a biological challenge rather than according to chemical or energetic parameters of that challenge.This approach leads to mathematical equations which can serve as a unifying concept for carcinogenic risk assessments. Sample results, to illustrate the utility of this model, are given for polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, trace metals, ionizing radiations, CO, NO, SO2, O3, and NO2. Treatment, here, is for acute exposure conditions, but because the model is mechanistic, other exposure protocols can be addressed by simply adjusting some of the mathematical parameters according to factors estimated from a relative potency comparison of in vitro and in vivo studies best suited to the particular application of interest.  相似文献   

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Environmental enrichment is an important tool utilized to improve animal welfare in zoological institutions through opportunity for mental and physical stimulation. Many past studies have focused on the impact enrichment has on animal behavior; however, none have conducted preference assessments on enrichment items to examine the relationship between animals' preferences and interaction with enrichment over a 24-hr period. Ten-minute free operant, paired-choice preference assessments were implemented in Study 1 to determine the enrichment preferences of African lions (N = 3). Following Study 1, Study 2 was conducted, which examined the behavior of African lions with enrichment items over the course of 30, 24-hr trials to evaluate the relationship between preferences established in Study 1 and long-term interaction with the enrichment. Generalized estimating equations revealed a statistically significant relationship between the percentage of time the enrichment was approached first and the average duration of interaction in Study 1 to the total duration of interaction and the percent of hours interacted with the item in Study 2. Additionally, the first 2 min of the preference data resulted in comparable statistically significant findings, demonstrating shorter preference assessments can produce similar results. The results support our prediction that preference assessments can be used to estimate the amount of interaction with enrichment over the course of time, with preferred items being interacted with more frequently and in longer duration. Information gained from this study suggests preference assessments can be a time and cost-effective tool to evaluate enrichment preference and predicted efficacy.  相似文献   

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Scientific assessment of the complex environmental consequences of large spills of oil or other hazardous substances has stimulated development of improved strategies for rapid and valid collection and processing of ecological data. The combination of coastal processes and geological measurements developed by Hayes & Gundlach (1978), together with selected field biological and chemical observations/measurements, provide an ecosystem impact assessment approach which is termed “integrated zonal method of ecological impact assessment.” Ecological assessment of oil and hazardous material spills has been divided into three distinct phases: (1) first-order response studies — conducted at the time of the initial spill event, which gather data to document acute impacts and assist decision-makers in prioritization of cleanup efforts and protection of ecologically sensitive habitats, (2) second-order response studies — conducted two months to one year post-spill, which document any delayed mortality and attempt to identify potential sublethal impacts in sensitive species, and (3) third-order response studies — conducted one to three years post-spill, to document chronic impacts (both lethal and sublethal) to specific indicator species. Data collected during first-order response studies are gathered in a quantitative manner so that the initial assessment may become a baseline for later, more detailed, post-spill scientific efforts. First- and second-order response studies of the “Peck Slip” oil spill in Puerto Rico illustrate the usefulness of this method. The need for contingency planning before a spill has been discussed along with the use of the Vulnerability Index, a method in which coastal environments are classified on a scale of 1–10, based upon their potential susceptibility to oiling. A study of the lower Cook Inlet section of the Alaskan coast illustrates the practical application of this method. Contribution 402, Gulf Breeze Environmental Research Laboratory  相似文献   

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Hazard assessments of Irgarol 1051, diuron, 2-(thiocyanomethylthio)benzothiazole (TCMTB), dichloro-octylisothiazolin (DCOIT), chlorothalonil, dichlofluanid, thiram, zinc pyrithione, copper pyrithione, triphenylborane pyridine (TPBP), capsaicin, nonivamide, tralopyril and medetomidine were performed to establish robust environmental quality standards (EQS), based on predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs). Microalgae, zooplankton, fish and amphibians were the most sensitive ecological groups to all the antifoulants evaluated, especially in the early life stages. No differences were identified between freshwater and seawater species. The use of toxicity tests with non-standard species is encouraged because they increase the datasets, allowing EQS to be derived from probabilistic-based PNECs whilst reducing uncertainties. The global ban of tributyltin (TBT) has been heralded as a major environmental success; however, substitute antifoulants may also pose risks to aquatic ecosystems. Environmental risk assessments (ERAs) have driven decision-makings for regulating antifouling products, but in many countries there is still a lack of regulation of antifouling biocides which should be addressed.  相似文献   

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Risk maps summarizing landscape suitability of novel areas for invading species can be valuable tools for preventing species’ invasions or controlling their spread, but methods employed for development of such maps remain variable and unstandardized. We discuss several considerations in development of such models, including types of distributional information that should be used, the nature of explanatory variables that should be incorporated, and caveats regarding model testing and evaluation. We highlight that, in the case of invasive species, such distributional predictions should aim to derive the best hypothesis of the potential distribution of the species by using (1) all distributional information available, including information from both the native range and other invaded regions; (2) predictors linked as directly as is feasible to the physiological requirements of the species; and (3) modelling procedures that carefully avoid overfitting to the training data. Finally, model testing and evaluation should focus on well-predicted presences, and less on efficient prediction of absences; a k-fold regional cross-validation test is discussed.  相似文献   

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An international database for pesticide risk assessments and management   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Despite a changing world in terms of data sharing, availability, and transparency, there are still major resource issues associated with collating datasets that will satisfy the requirements of comprehensive pesticide risk assessments, especially those undertaken at a regional or national scale. In 1996, a long-term project was initiated to begin collating and formatting pesticide data to eventually create a free-to-all repository of data that would provide a comprehensive transparent, harmonized, and managed extensive dataset for all types of pesticide risk assessments. Over the last 20 years, this database has been keeping pace with improving risk assessments, their associated data requirements, and the needs and expectations of database end users. In 2007, the Pesticide Properties DataBase (PPDB) was launched as a free-to-access website. Currently, the PPDB holds data for almost 2300 pesticide active substances and over 700 metabolites. For each substance around 300 parameters are stored, covering human health, environmental quality, and biodiversity risk assessments. With the approach of the twentieth anniversary of the database, this article seeks to elucidate the current data model, data sources, its validation, and quality control processes and describes a number of existing risk assessment applications that depend upon it.  相似文献   

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The environmental legislation of many countries increasingly requires the continuous monitoring of fish assemblages to evaluate the success of river and stream restorations. Predicting species–environment relationships on the basis of monitoring data is central in the evaluation of ecological integrity and planning of rehabilitation strategies. Monitoring data are, however, often plagued by a substantial proportion of zeros (no catch at single sampling points) which are caused by relevant ecological processes, but complicate the use of commonly used statistical methods. This study compares mere count regression models, mixture and hurdle models based on Poisson and negative binomial distribution and logistic regressions with respect to their ability to cope with large zero-inflated data sets obtained by point abundance sampling of young-of-the-year fish from three large German rivers. Only mixture and hurdle models based on negative binomial distribution could satisfactorily be fitted to the zero-inflated and overdispersed count data. The logistic regression models applied to transliterated catch data simplified the computational procedure and yielded qualitative similar results to the count regression models indicating that the use of more complex count data did not generally provide better predictions. Therefore, presence/absence sampling may be a suitable and less costly alternative to abundance surveys for identifying environmental factors which affect the spatial distribution of fish populations at least if information on subtly abundance fluctuations is not needed. Mixture or hurdle models are particularly worth the additional effort if it is reasonable to distinguish between those environmental factors influencing the occurrence probability and others affecting the abundance. All models showed low sensitivity to rare guilds pointing to the need for a further development of statistical models for rare species whose management is a matter of growing environmental concern.  相似文献   

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