Variations in cancer mortality among local authority areas in England and Wales: relations with environmental factors and search for causes.

Geographical variations in specific causes of mortality among the 1366 local authority areas of England and Wales as defined at 1971 were studied by examining extracts from death certificates held on computer tape. Five items of information on each death--year of death, age at death, sex, local authority area of residence, and the underlying cause of death, during the 11 years 1968-78--permitted a more detailed investigation than had been possible before. Analysis of some early results of the study--including maps of mortality for pleural mesothelioma, nasal cancer and bladder cancer--suggested that, despite the known limitations of death certification, systematic study of the mortality of small areas may give clues to aetiological factors in the environment. Analyses relating mortality to the distribution of environmental factors and examining disease profiles of each area may also provide clues. These will be followed up by other methods of study, such as case-control techniques.     

Trends in mortality statistics in England and Wales with particular reference to AIDS from 1984 to April 1987

Death certification should be able to provide accurate data on the number of deaths due to AIDS as a basis for predicting future deaths from the syndrome. Trends in deaths from other causes may identify conditions that have not been recognised to be associated with HIV infection. Mortality statistics with reference to AIDS in England and Wales were completed from death certificates. Increases in deaths from selected causes likely to be associated with AIDS or HIV infection suggested that in some patients with HIV infection, AIDS was not stated on the death certificate or subsequently notified by the doctor who signed the certificate. From calculations of excess deaths between the beginning of 1985 and the end of April 1987, compared with 1984 at least 495 deaths possibly associated with HIV infection were estimated to have occurred among men aged 15-54 during that period. In 261 AIDS or HIV infection was stated on the original or amended death entry as the cause of death, and of these 198 were included in the estimated number of excess deaths.Accurate notification of the underlying cause of death and associated diseases is required for the precise monitoring of trends in mortality from AIDS and possible identification of unrecognised conditions associated with HIV infection.     

Trends in Haemophilus influenzae type b infections in adults in England and Wales: surveillance study

Objective To describe invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections in individuals aged 15 years or older in England and Wales between 1991 and 2003.Design Prospective, laboratory based surveillance of invasive Hib infections and cross sectional seroprevalence study.Setting England and Wales.Participants Cases were confirmed by isolation of H influenzae from a normally sterile site, or from a non-sterile site in cases with a diagnosis of epiglottitis. Excess serum samples collected from English 30-39 year olds as part of a national serosurvey were identified for the years 1990, 1994, 1997, 2000, and 2002.Main outcome measures The number of invasive Hib infections from 1991 to 2003. Population immunity to H influenzae type b in English adults was also measured.Results After routine infant immunisation was introduced in October 1992, adult Hib infections decreased initially but then rose from a low in 1998 to reach prevaccine levels in 2003. An associated fall in median Hib antibody concentrations occurred, from 1.29 μg/ml (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.64) in 1991 to 0.70 μg/ml (0.57 to 0.89) in 1994 (P = 0.006), with no significant change observed thereafter.Conclusions Although immunisation of infants resulted in an initial decline in Hib infections in adults, a resurgence in reported cases occurred in 2002-3. This rise was associated with an increase in cases in children and evidence of reduced immunity in older unimmunised cohorts. Childhood immunisation programmes may have unanticipated effects on the epidemiology of disease in older age groups, and surveillance strategies must be targeted at entire populations.     

Patterns of mortality in second generation Irish living in England and Wales: longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the mortality of second generation Irish living in England and Wales. DESIGN--Longitudinal study of 1% of the population of England and Wales (longitudinal study by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (now the Office for National Statistics)) followed up from 1971 to 1989. SUBJECTS--3075 men and 3233 women aged 15 and over in 1971. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Age and sex specific standardised mortality ratios for all causes, cancers, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and injuries and poisonings. Deaths were also analysed by socioeconomic indicators. RESULTS--786 deaths were traced to men and 762 to women. At working ages (men, aged 15-64; women, 15-59) the mortality of men (standardised mortality ratio 126) and women (129) was significantly higher than that of all men and all women. At ages 15-44, relative disadvantages were even greater both for men (145) and for women (164). Mortality was raised for most major causes of death. Significant excess mortality from cancers was seen for men of working age (132) and for women aged 60 and over (122). At working ages mortality of the second generation Irish in every social class and in the categories of car access and housing tenure was higher than that of all men and all women in the corresponding categories. Adjusting for these socioeconomic indicators did not explain the excess mortality. CONCLUSION--Mortality of second generation Irish men and women was higher than that of all men and all women and for most major causes of death. While socioeconomic factors remain important, cultural and lifestyle factors are likely to contribute to this adverse mortality.     

The 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales: spatial patterns in transmissibility and mortality impact

Spatial variations in disease patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic remain poorly studied. We explored the association between influenza death rates, transmissibility and several geographical and demographic indicators for the autumn and winter waves of the 1918-1919 pandemic in cities, towns and rural areas of England and Wales. Average measures of transmissibility, estimated by the reproduction number, ranged between 1.3 and 1.9, depending on model assumptions and pandemic wave and showed little spatial variation. Death rates varied markedly with urbanization, with 30-40% higher rates in cities and towns compared with rural areas. In addition, death rates varied with population size across rural settings, where low population areas fared worse. By contrast, we found no association between transmissibility, death rates and indicators of population density and residential crowding. Further studies of the geographical mortality patterns associated with the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic may be useful for pandemic planning.     

Migration and fertility behaviour in England and Wales: a record linkage study

Relationships between migration and fertility are examined using data from the OPCS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales, including linked information from the 1971 and 1981 censuses and birth registration data for the period 1971-80. The results show that the proportion moving between the 1971 Census and the 1st subsequent birth was higher among tenants than owner occupiers, particularly for women in shared accommodation in 1971. The association between tenure and moving was more consistent than the relationship between moving and the husband's social class. Differences in the proportions moving between the censuses were positively associated with fertility in the same period particularly for women in potentially crowded accomodation in 1971. Moving in 1970-1971 was not associated with differences in parity progression ratios 1971-1981. There were however, differences in the timing of births, suggesting that long distance migration was associated with a postponement of the 1st or 2nd child, probably because both longer distance migration and fertility behavior are associated with other characteristics such as education.     

Sociodemographic differentials in mortality during the 1974-75 famine in a rural area of Bangladesh

This study investigates the socio-demographic differentials in mortality during the 1974-75 famine in a rural area of Bangladesh. It is based on household socioeconomic information collected in the 1974 census and registration data on births, deaths and migrations for the period 1974-79 from the Demographic Surveillance System of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh. Ownership of selected household items was considered in the analysis as an indicator of household socioeconomic status. Mortality was 62% higher during the famine period and 31% higher during the post-famine period compared to the non-famine period. The mortality of both the poor and the rich increased during the famine period, by 117% and 28% respectively compared to the non-famine period. The poor suffered significantly in all age groups except 5-14 years, while the rich suffered only for ages 65 and over. Poor males suffered more than poor females except for ages 65 and over, while rich females suffered more than rich males except for ages under 1 year.     

The effects of assisted reproduction on the trends and zygosity of multiple births in England and Wales 1974-99.

Assisted reproductive techniques have led to an increase in the proportion of maternities that are multiple. Though predominantly dizygotic, they are at greater risk of monozygotic division than those spontaneously conceived. England and Wales data 1974-99 on stillbirths and livebirths were analysed for 4 periods: 1974-80 (pre-assisted reproduction; 1982-8; 1989-91 (pre-redefinition of stillbirth); 1993-9 (post-redefinition of stillbirth). For twin data, Weinberg's rule was applied to estimate the proportions that were mono- (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ). Compared with the period before assisted reproduction, the most recent period shows an increase in twin maternities of 3.81 per 1,000 comprised of 3.22 (95% CI 3.10 to 3.33; p < 0.0001) DZ and 0.60 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.68; p < 0.0001) MZ twins. It is estimated that 15.7% of assisted reproduction twins are MZ. Higher order multiple births showed an increase of 3.06 (95% CI 2.85 to 3.29; p < 0.0001) per 10,000 maternities. Stillbirth rates in MZ twins are of the same order of magnitude as those in higher order multiple births but higher than those in DZ twins. The improvement in stillbirth rates over the 26 year study period is of the same order magnitude in singletons, DZ and MZ twins and higher order multiples. Assisted reproduction has led to a significant increase in the proportion of MZ twins. These are at high risk of fetal death and this needs to be considered when local stillbirth and perinatal mortality rates are used in auditing obstetric services.     

Capitation funding: population,age, and mortality adjustments for regional and district health authorities in England.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the effect of each of the components of the national capitation funding formula--population projections and age and mortality weighting--at regional and district level. DESIGN--Application of age-cost and mortality weights to the projected 1997 populations of regions and districts, based on the Department of Health public health common dataset. SETTING--Regional and district health authorities in England. RESULTS--The application of the age-cost and mortality weights to projected populations resulted in greater changes in the shares of weighted populations relative to the estimated 1991 population at district level (mean 0, range -17% to 28%) than at regional level (mean 0, range -9% to 6%). At district level mortality weights had less scope for influence (mean 0, range -9% to 14%) than population projections (mean 0, range -16% to 31%) or age weights (mean 0, range -20% to 30%). CONCLUSIONS--The adjustments to the 1991 population shares due to the application of the national capitation funding formula depend on the interaction of three elements: the projected population by age group, the age-cost weight, and the mortality weight. Since each is open to uncertainty, either in terms of measurement (projected population, particularly for births and the over 85s) or method (derivation of the age-cost and mortality weights), the formula should be implemented cautiously at district level. Ways should be considered of incorporating elements of uncertainty into the model. Further research is required on the elements and degree of uncertainty in each of these components, as well as on the relative health needs of different populations.     

Trends in the hospital care of acute childhood asthma 1970-8: a regional study.

In the South-west Thames Region over the period 1970-8 the number of admissions for asthma in children aged 5-14 years increased from 256 to 684, an increase of 167%. Factors associated with this trend were investigated by an analysis of routine hospital statistics and examination of case notes for 1970 and 1978 from every hospital in the region. The trend was caused partly by an increase in readmission rates. There was a more than fivefold increase in self-referrals; these patients had less severe asthma on admission and a higher readmission rate than patients referred by general practitioners. Drug management before and after admission changed considerably over the nine years, as did hospital investigations. Overall, there was little change in the level of severity on admission. The increase in admissions was not associated with a reduction in deaths from asthma in the region and occurred in spite of major advances in the drug control of asthma; this indicates an inadequacy of ambulatory care. The shift in the balance of care towards the hospital and the increasing adoption of a primary care function by the hospital indicate a need for hospitals and general practice to agree jointly on management policies for acute asthma.     

"I'm all right,John": voting patterns and mortality in England and Wales, 1981-92.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between voting patterns, deprivation, and mortality across England and Wales. DESIGN: Ecological study. SETTING: All the electoral constituencies of England and Wales. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Combined and sex specific standardised mortality ratios. RESULTS: For the years surrounding the three elections of 1983, 1987, and 1992 overall standardised mortality ratios showed substantial negative correlations of -0.74 to -0.76 with Conservative voting and substantial positive correlations of 0.73 to 0.77 with Labour voting (all P < 0.0001). Correlations were higher for male than female mortality. Conservative voting was strongly negatively correlated (r = -0.84) with the Townsend deprivation score, while Labour voting was positively correlated (r = 0.74) with this. Labour and Conservative voting explained more of the variance in mortality than did the Townsend score. In multiple regression analyses for the 1992 election Labour voting (P < 0.0001), Conservative voting (P < 0.0001), the Townsend score (P = 0.016), and abstentions (P = 0.032) were all associated with mortality. Labour and conservative voting explained 61% of the variance in mortality between constituencies; when Townsend score and abstentions were added this increased to 63%. CONCLUSIONS: Conservative and Labour voting are at least as strongly associated with mortality as is a standard deprivation index. Voting patterns may add information above that provided by indicators of material deprivation. People living in better circumstances and who have better health, who are least likely to require unemployment benefit and free school meals or to rely on a state pension in old age, and who are most able to opt out of state subsidised provision of transport, education, and the NHS, vote for the party that is most likely to dismantle the welfare state.     

Increasing incidence of tuberculosis in England and Wales: a study of the likely causes.

OBJECTIVE--To examine factors responsible for the recent increase in tuberculosis in England and Wales. DESIGN--Study of the incidence of tuberculosis (a) in the 403 local authority districts in England and Wales, ranked according to Jarman score, and (b) in one deprived inner city district, according to ethnic origin and other factors. SETTING--(a) England and Wales 1980-92, and (b) the London borough of Hackney 1986-93. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Age and sex adjusted rate of tuberculosis. RESULTS--In England and Wales notifications of tuberculosis increased by 12% between 1988 and 1992. The increase was 35% in the poorest 10th of the population and 13% in the next two; and in the remaining 70% there was no increase. In Hackney the increase affected traditionally high risk and low risk ethnic groups to a similar extent. In the "low risk" white and West Indian communities the incidence increased by 58% from 1986-8 (78 cases) to 1991-3 (123), whereas in residents of Indian subcontinent origin the increase was 41% (from 51 cases to 72). Tuberculosis in recently arrived immigrants--refugees (11% of the Hackney population) and Africans (6%)--accounted for less than half of the overall increase, and the proportion of such residents was much higher than in most socioeconomically deprived districts. The local increase was not due to an increase in the proportion of cases notified, to HIV infection, nor to an increase in homeless people. CONCLUSIONS--The national rise in tuberculosis affects only the poorest areas. Within one such area all residents (white and established ethnic minorities) were affected to a similar extent. The evidence indicates a major role for socioeconomic factors in the increase in tuberculosis and only a minor role for recent immigration from endemic areas.     

Mortality Attributable to Influenza in England and Wales Prior to,during and after the 2009 Pandemic

Very different influenza seasons have been observed from 2008/09–2011/12 in England and Wales, with the reported burden varying overall and by age group. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of influenza on all-cause and cause-specific mortality during this period. Age-specific generalised linear regression models fitted with an identity link were developed, modelling weekly influenza activity through multiplying clinical influenza-like illness consultation rates with proportion of samples positive for influenza A or B. To adjust for confounding factors, a similar activity indicator was calculated for Respiratory Syncytial Virus. Extreme temperature and seasonal trend were controlled for. Following a severe influenza season in 2008/09 in 65+yr olds (estimated excess of 13,058 influenza A all-cause deaths), attributed all-cause mortality was not significant during the 2009 pandemic in this age group and comparatively low levels of influenza A mortality were seen in post-pandemic seasons. The age shift of the burden of seasonal influenza from the elderly to young adults during the pandemic continued into 2010/11; a comparatively larger impact was seen with the same circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 strain, with the burden of influenza A all-cause excess mortality in 15–64 yr olds the largest reported during 2008/09–2011/12 (436 deaths in 15–44 yr olds and 1,274 in 45–64 yr olds). On average, 76% of seasonal influenza A all-age attributable deaths had a cardiovascular or respiratory cause recorded (average of 5,849 influenza A deaths per season), with nearly a quarter reported for other causes (average of 1,770 influenza A deaths per season), highlighting the importance of all-cause as well as cause-specific estimates. No significant influenza B attributable mortality was detected by season, cause or age group. This analysis forms part of the preparatory work to establish a routine mortality monitoring system ahead of introduction of the UK universal childhood seasonal influenza vaccination programme in 2013/14.     

Analysis of trends in cancer mortality in England and Wales during 1951-80 separating changes associated with period of birth and period of death.

Cancer mortality rates in England and Wales were analysed so to describe simultaneously changes affecting successive generations--that is, associated with period of birth--as well as changes associated with the period of which the deaths took place. When mortality from all cancers was considered the analysis implied that, contrary to a widely held view, the rate of death from cancer had been declining in each sex in successive generations. For men the decline had occurred in generations born since 1900, whereas for women the peak came in the 1925 birth group. On the other hand, there had been little decline in the rates associated with period of death. Five examples of cancers of specific organs for which the trends contrasted are shown.