Adult stature and age at menarche in Zapotec-speaking communities in the Valley of Oaxaca,Mexico, in a secular perspective

Adult stature and the age at menarche among individuals from Zapotec-speaking communities in the Valley of Oaxaca in southern Mexico are considered in a secular perspective. Four sets of observations are utilized: (1) adult stature in males and females from five rural communities; (2) age at menarche in adult women and school girls from a single rural community; (3) earlier studies of adult stature in the Valley of Oaxaca; and (4) estimated stature from long bones excavated in various archaeological sites in the Valley of Oaxaca. There were no significant differences among the five communities for stature; hence, the data were pooled for analysis and comparison. Results of linear regression of stature and stature adjusted for the estimated effects of aging after 30 years of age on year of birth indicate negligible secular changes in either sex. Comparisons with statures from earlier surveys, the earliest dates to 1899, also indicate negligible changes. When adult women are grouped according to age, there are no differences in mean ages at menarche between the older and younger women. Mean age at menarche for the total adult sample is 14.53 ± 0.08 years, which compares favorably with the probit estimate for school girls, 14.70 ± 0.32 years. These results thus suggest virtually no secular change in adult size and maturity of the Zapotec-speaking population in the Valley of Oaxaca over the past 80 years. Differences in stature between contemporary populations and estimated statures from long bones from several archaeological sites in Oaxaca are small, and thus suggests little secular change over the past one to two–thousand years.     

Demographic and health patterns in a rural community from the Basque area in Spain (1800-1990)

In this work, the evolution of demographic and health patterns in a Basque rural population from Spain is analysed, as they relate to progress in demographic and epidemiological transition. For this purpose, parochial record data on 13,298 births and 9,215 deaths, registered during the 19th and 20th centuries (1800-1990), were examined. The study area is a rural community called Lanciego, which is located at the southern end of the Rioja Alavesa area (Alava Province, Basque Country). In Lanciego, demographic transition began in the final decade of the 19th century, when a definite, irreversible trend began towards a reduction in mortality. The decrease in the birth rate came later than that in the death rate, and did not start until the 1930s. The post-transitional stage seemed to be reached in the 1970s, when the birth and death rates showed values below 20 per 1,000. Other characteristics observed for the post-transitional stage in Lanciego are: (i) very low rates of infant mortality achieved at the expense of effective control of exogenous mortality; (ii) the mortality curve by ages changes from a U-shape (typical of populations with a high infant mortality rate and low life expectancy at birth) to a J-shape more characteristic of modern societies where longevity and life expectancy are considerably higher; (iii) a certain level of over-mortality among women in the senior age group (>65); and (iv) a significant proportion of mortality in recent times (1970-90) resulting from cardiovascular diseases and malignant neoplasms (post-transition causes). This last point is in contrast with observations from the first four decades of the 20th century, when infectious diseases and respiratory ailments were determining factors in mortality among this population. The data provided by the study of the variation over time in demographic and health patterns indicate that reducing the risk of mortality is one of the most important preconditions for fertility decline.     

Craniofacial dimensions in children in rural Oaxaca, southern Mexico: secular change, 1968-2000

The objective of this investigation was to analyze the underlying cause(s) of secular changes in craniofacial dimensions among indigenous children in an isolated community in Oaxaca, southern Mexico, between 1968-2000. Subjects were schoolchildren resident in a rural, agrarian, Zapotec-speaking community in the Valley of Oaxaca, previously characterized as mildly-to-moderately undernourished with growth-stunting in 1968 and 1978. In 2000, children had experienced a secular increase in height compared with two prior growth surveys. Four craniofacial dimensions (head length, head breadth, and bizygomatic and bigonial breadths) were measured during anthropometric surveys of schoolchildren aged 6-13 years in 1968, 1978, and 2000. Cephalic and zygomandibular indices were calculated. Samples by survey were: 1968, 151 males and 157 females; 1978, 179 males and 184 females; and 2000, 180 males and 186 females. The analysis was based on a total of 1,037 children. Multivariate analysis of covariance was used to assess secular trend effects, with height, age, and age2 as covariates by sex. Over the interval of 32 years, significant secular changes occurred in craniofacial dimensions and one index: 1) head length was shorter in boys and girls; 2) bizygomatic breadth was narrower in boys and girls; 3) head breadth increased over time only among girls; 4) brachycephalization increased significantly in a linear manner among both sexes; and 5) the zygomandibular index decreased significantly only in boys. Thus, the cranial complex remodeled to a shorter head length, both relatively (brachycephalization) and absolutely. Remodeling over time also resulted in a narrower face, with the midface changing at about the same rate as the lower face (i.e., mandible). Secular changes are generally recognized as multifactorial. Changes in the cephalic index and cranium over time in schoolchildren in an isolated rural agrarian Zapotec-speaking community in the Valley of Oaxaca suggest that the underlying forces for the secular change are associated: 1) decreased food (maize) coarseness or grit content (masticatory stress), and 2) relaxed natural selection, resulting in 3) a greater role for developmental plasticity.     

Opportunity for natural selection and gene flow in an isolated Zapotec-speaking community in southern Mexico in the throes of a secular increase in size

Our object in this paper is to analyze the opportunity for natural selection and gene flow in an isolated Zapotec-speaking community in the valley of Oaxaca, southern Mexico, that is undergoing a secular increase in body size. Surveys were conducted in the community in 1968, 1978, and 2000, including anthropometric and census data. No secular change was found in the growth status of schoolchildren and adult height between 1968 and 1978; subsequently, major secular gains in height occurred among children and adolescents between 1978 and 2000. The 1978 household data were used to compute gene flow (3.3%) and opportunity for selection intensity (I = 1.312). Migration and other demographic information was obtained from household census data for 1978 and 2000, and mortality information was extracted from community records and archives. These data were used to compute gene flow and opportunity for natural selection. Gene flow increased from 3.3% to 4.7% and intensity of natural selection decreased from 1.312 to 0.272 from 1978 to 2000. Variance in fertility increased slightly over time (12.25 to 13.69). Opportunity for selection was dominant during the prereproductive period in 1978, but approached 0 for the mortality component in 2000, resulting in a marked decrease in the mortality component (Im) of selection (0.626 and 0.019, respectively) and total opportunity for selection (I = 1.312 and 0.272, respectively). Secular increase in height and markedly decreased opportunity for natural selection (1) were associated with better health and nutritional conditions. Genotype-environment interaction and environmental influences are apparently the predominant causes of the secular trend. If natural selection plays a role in causing the secular trend, it is a small one.     

Narrowing sex differentials in life expectancy in the industrialized world: Early 1970's to early 1990's

Abstract

Between the early 1970's and 1990's, twelve industrialized nations experienced for the first time a narrowing of their sex differences in life expectancy at age zero. In another set of countries, the differential has not yet reached a stage of convergence, although in some of these nations the female advantage appears to be increasing at a slower pace than ever before. We discuss the demographic and epidemiologic conditions for this new and largely unanticipated trend, as well as its applied and theoretical implications in the context of the following questions: (1) Is the observed change a function of males’ faster pace of gains in life expectancy since the early 1970s? (2) What is the relationship between country differences in socioeconomic development (as measured by GNP) and the degree of convergence in the sex gap in average length of life? (3) What is the degree of association between temporal change in age‐sex specific death rates and change in the sex gap in life expectancy over the twenty‐year interval between the early 1970s and early 1990s? Our results indicate that where some convergence has taken place, in relation to women, men have experienced more rapid gains in survival; the higher a nation's level of social and economic development, the greater the amount of convergence in male and female life expectancies. The most pronounced age‐specific association with the changing sex gap in longevity is that of ages 25–59, where the greater reductions in male mortality, as compared to that for females, contributed to a significant portion of the observed convergence in life expectancy across industrialized nations.     

Heredity of joint diseases

Abstract

This research examines the infant mortality/socioeconomic status relationship in Toledo, Ohio, for the years centering around 19S0, 1960, and 1970 in order to depict variables that contributed most to infant mortality for each time period. Zero‐order correlation coefficients demonstrated that the relationship has widened mainly as a result of an increasing inverse neonatal/socioeconomic pattern which was due in part to a “cause‐period cross‐over effect” (exogenous causes of death were contributing to deaths in the neonatal period in 1970). Further examination suggested that the status variables through which the differentials were operating have shifted from one time period to another. In 1950, crowded housing conditions and unemployment were primarily responsible; in 1960, it was housing and income; and in 1970, marital instability and income predominated. This paper suggests that as new social phenomena emerge they quickly affect sensitive indicators of well‐being such as the infant mortality rate.     

Is Marine Mammal Health Deteriorating? Trends in the Global Reporting of Marine Mammal Disease

A recent rise in the reporting of diseases in marine organisms has raised concerns that ocean health is deteriorating. The goal of this study was to determine whether or not there has been a recent deterioration in marine mammal health by investigating the trends in disease reports over the past 40 years (categorized by the method of study, the species affected, and the etiology of the disease) and by exploring the changes in frequency of mass mortality events among marine mammals reported in the United States since 1978. The number of papers on marine mammal disease published each year has increased since 1966, although the annual publication rate appears to have stabilized since ∼1992. Those published in the 1960s and 1970s were largely about helminth and bacterial disease, those investigating viruses emerged in the late 1970s and increased in the 1980s and 1990s, whereas protozoal diseases and harmful algal toxins were largely not reported until the 1990s. The annual number of mass mortality events in the U.S. approximately doubled between 1980 and 1990 but since 2000 has been between seven and eight events per year. Causes of mass mortality events have included biotoxins, viruses, bacteria, parasites, human interactions, oil spills, and changes in oceanographic conditions. Events due to biotoxins appear to be increasing, but the change in the frequency of mass mortality events from other causes over the past 40 years cannot be determined from the available published literature due to changes in marine mammal abundance, inconsistencies in effort and extent of resources for pathological investigation, and advances in technology that have allowed improved detection of pathogens and toxins in more recent years. To ensure future information on the true incidence of marine diseases and their underlying causes is more reliable, specific and directed marine health monitoring programs, well-equipped stranding networks, and dedicated diagnostic laboratories are needed.     

Secular change in heights of indigenous adults from a Zapotec‐speaking community in Oaxaca,southern Mexico

Secular change in adult height of residents in a rural indigenous community in the Valley of Oaxaca was evaluated. Subjects were measured in 1971 (49 males, 26 females 19–70 years), 1978 (128 males, 124 females 19–82 years) and 2000 (155 males, 255 females 19–89 years). Heights were adjusted for estimated loss with age using two protocols; height at 21 years of age was also estimated. The effects of age and secular factors on measured and adjusted heights were evaluated through segmented linear regressions for three birth periods, <1930, 1930 through 1959 and ≥1960 which approximate significant periods in Mexican history. Secular increase in height occurred but estimated rates varied over time and between sexes. Males born before 1930 showed a secular increase in height but females did not. Adults of both sexes born 1930–1959 showed secular gains and estimated rates did not differ. The secular gain in height continued among those born 1960 and later and estimated rates were similar in both sexes. Estimated height at 21 years of age increased in males (not significant) but not in females born before 1930, showed little or no change in those born between 1930‐1959, and increased (not significant) in those born 1960 and later. Combining observations on adults with those for youth in the community indicated several phases of secular change in height that varied with years of birth. Am J Phys Anthropol 2010. © 2009 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Sex differences in bone loss--an evolutionary perspective on a clinical problem

The dramatic increase in the world's population that has occurred over the past 100 years has come largely through reductions in death due to infectious disease. An epidemiologic transition to a preponderance of deaths due to degenerative conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer is occurring in the developing countries as well as in the industrialized ones. In the industrialized countries, demographic profiles now reflect the increased life expectancies of both sexes. However, female life expectancies exceed male by six or more years. Further change in mortality patterns will accompany success in the reduction of the number of mortalities attributable to such degenerative conditions as cardiovascular disease and cancer. In the 21st century, conditions associated with sensescence will be of increasing concern. Adaptive strategies that enhanced reproductive success throughout most of human evolution may now prove detrimental to human health as average life expectancies reach unprecedented length. In this environment, differences in the survival mechanisms deployed by males as opposed to females will become increasingly important.     

Decadal changes in summer mortality in U.S. cities

Recent studies suggest that anthropogenic climate warming will result in higher heat-related mortality rates in U.S. cities than have been observed in the past. However, most of these analyses assume that weather-mortality relationships have not changed over time. We examine decadal-scale changes in relationships between human mortality and hot, humid weather for 28 U.S. cities with populations greater than one million. Twenty-nine years of daily total mortality rates, age-standardized to account for underlying demographic changes, are related to afternoon apparent temperatures ( T(a)) and organized by decade for each city. Threshold T(a) values, or the T(a) at and above which mortality is significantly elevated, are calculated for each city, and the mortality rates on days when the threshold T(a) was exceeded are compared across decades. On days with high T(a), mortality rates were lower in the 1980s and 1990s than in the 1960s and 1970s in a majority of the cities. Regionally, northeastern and northern interior cities continue to exhibit elevated, albeit reduced, death rates on warm, humid days in the 1980s and 1990s, while most southern cities do not. The overall decadal decline in mortality in most cities is probably because of adaptations: increased use of air conditioning, improved health care, and heightened public awareness of the biophysical impacts of heat exposure. This finding of a more muted mortality response of the U.S. populace to high T(a) values over time raises doubts about the validity of projections of future U.S. mortality increases linked to potential greenhouse warming.     

Demographic, social, and economic effects on Mexican causes of death in 1990

This study examined spatial geographic patterns of cause of death and 28 demographic and socioeconomic influences on causes of death for 31 Mexican states plus the Federal District for 1990. Mortality data were obtained from the state death registration system and are age standardized. The 28 socioeconomic variables were obtained from Census records. Analysis included 2 submodels: one with all 28 socioeconomic variables in a stepwise regression, and one with each of the 4 groups of factors. The conceptual model is based on epidemiological transition theory and empirical findings. There are 4 stages in mortality decline. Effects are grouped as demographic, sociocultural, economic prosperity, and housing, health, and crime factors. Findings indicate that cancer and cardiovascular disease were strongly correlated and consistently high in border areas as well as the Federal District and Jalisco. Respiratory mortality had higher values in the Federal District, Puebla, and surrounding states, as well as Jalisco. The standardized total mortality rate was only in simple correlations associated inversely with underemployment. All cause specific mortality was associated with individual factors. Respiratory mortality was linked with manufacturing work force. Cardiovascular and cancer mortality were associated with socioeconomic factors. In submodel I, cause specific mortality was predicted by crowding, housing characteristics, marriage and divorce, and manufacturing work force. In submodel II, economic group factors had the strongest model fits explaining 33-60% of the "r" square. Hypothesized effects were only partially validated.     

How Does Out-Migration Affect Community Institutions? A Study of Two Indigenous Municipalities in Oaxaca,Mexico

This paper investigates the impact of human out-migration on long-standing commons institutions in the Sierra Norte of Oaxaca. Local communities have been increasingly engaged with national and international markets for wage labour, with many losing a significant percentage of their resident populations. This paper shows how demographic and cultural change is impacting the two social institutions—cargos and tequios—that underpin the highly autonomous form of governance the region is famed for. The loss of able-bodied men and women has meant that these customary systems are struggling to remain operational. A number of responses and institutional adaptations have been introduced by community authorities, including the forging of translocal ties that show potential for reducing the vulnerability of affected villages. While migration was temporary or circular from the 1970s to the 1990s, more permanent forms of migration have come to dominate since that time. Such a shift undermines adaptation efforts at the community level. Within this context, the lessons for commons theory are discussed, while a new layer of complexity is added to the body of work examining the consequences of rural depopulation on Mexican village life and landscapes.     

A varied pattern of change of the sex differential in survival in the G7 countries

Over the course of the 20th century the sex differential in life expectancy at birth in the industrialized countries has widened considerably in favour of women. Starting in the early 1970s, the beginning of a reversal in the long-term pattern of this differential has been noted in some high-income countries. This study documents a sustained pattern of narrowing of this measure into the later part of the 1990s for six of the populations that comprise the G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, England and Wales (as representative of the United Kingdom) and USA. For Japan, a persistence of widening sex differences in survival is noted. The sex differences in life expectancy are decomposed over roughly three decades (early 1970s to late 1990s) from the point of view of four major cause-of-death categories: circulatory diseases, cancers, accidents/violence/suicide, and 'other' (residual) causes. In the six countries where the sex gap has narrowed, this has resulted primarily from reduced sex differences in circulatory disease mortality, and secondarily from reduced differences in male and female death rates due to accidents, violence and suicide combined. In some of the countries sex differentials in cancer mortality have been converging lately, and this has also contributed to a narrowing of the difference in life expectancy. In Japan, males have been less successful in reducing their survival disadvantage in relation to Japanese women with regard to circulatory disease and cancer; and in the case of accidents/violence/suicide, male death rates increased during the 1990s. These trends explain the divergent pattern of the sex difference in life expectation in Japan as compared with the other G7 nations.     

Time series analysis of the epidemiological transition in Minorca, 1634-1997

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models provide a powerful tool for detecting seasonal patterns in mortality statistics. The strength of ARIMA models lies in their ability to reveal complex structures of temporal interdependence in time series. Moreover, changes in model parameters provide an empirical basis for detecting secular trends and death seasonality patterns. This approach is illustrated by our analysis of changes in the mortality patterns of the population of the town of Es Mercadal on the island of Minorca between 1634 and 1997. These data reveal a transition from an early mortality pattern requiring a complex ARIMA model that accounts for a strong seasonal death pattern and periodic epidemic-related mortality crises to a much simpler 20th-century pattern that can be described by a simple single-parameter ARIMA model. These same data were also analyzed using standard seasonality tests. The results show that the reduction in the number of parameters required to fit the Es Mercadal mortality data coincides with the epidemiological transition in which the predominant causes of morbidly and mortality shift from infectious to degenerative causes.     

Genetic drift and natural selection in an isolated Zapotec-speaking community in the Valley of Oaxaca, southern Mexico

Genetic drift and natural selection were analyzed in a genetically isolated Zapotec-speaking community in the Valley of Oaxaca, southern Mexico. Moderately intense genetic drift and selection potentials were found. Potential for drift was related to (1) the small effective size of the population, and (2) the exceptionally low number of migrants into the population. Potential for selection was due to (1) an unusually high variance in fertility, and (2) a high contribution of prereproductive mortality. Significant potential for genetic evolution was found due to genetic drift and natural selection.     

Changing sex ratio of mortality in the Semai Senoi, 1969-1987

An excess of male over female deaths is characteristic of modern national populations, whereas in some high-mortality societies female mortality exceeds that of males. Among the Semai Senoi, a Malaysian Orang Asli ("aboriginal") population, women experienced higher mortality than males in the decades before 1969. This differential occurred in all age classes older than 15 years so that the sex ratio progressively increased with age. A recent (1987) restudy of the Semai population found that sex-specific differential mortality is much reduced. A comparison of the 1969 and 1987 life tables shows a sharp shift in the sex ratios of mortality for the post-15-year-old age classes (the geometric means of age classes 15-44 were 0.768 in 1969 and 0.997 in 1987) so that male and female expectations of further life at age 15 are now nearly identical. In contrast to the best-known cases of high female mortality (mostly in South Asia), Semai sex differential mortality does not include the childhood ages. The Semai have traditionally been relatively sexually egalitarian, and sex bias in care has not occurred. Analysis of sex-specific causes of death for the pre-1969 population suggests that maternal mortality is the major cause of the excess female deaths. The reduced number of maternal deaths seems largely due to better health care, particularly the availability of hospital services. Interestingly, the reduction in female mortality has occurred simultaneously with increased fertility, and overall mortality has continued at relatively high levels (eO less than 36). Thus, rather than forming a component of a unitary demographic transition, declining sex differences in mortality can be accounted for by a specific factor, better maternal care.     

Mortality transition among the Wends of Serbin, Texas, 1854-1884: changes in pattern of death from parochial records.

Investigating cause of death is important in the study of mortality. Most studies, however, deal with aggregate national samples and rely on civil death certificates filled out by physicians. Little or no research has been done using parochial burial registers for individual-level cause of death. This article investigates causes of death between 1854 and 1884 among the Wends of Serbin, Texas, a nineteenth-century European immigrant community. The goal is: (1) to show that data pertaining to individual cause of death extracted from parochial records can contribute to knowledge about historical mortality patterns at the community level, (2) to determine if an epidemiological transition occurred in this population, and (3) to identify changes in disease patterns over time. Changes in the pattern of disease for the entire population as well as for the subpopulation under one year of age are analyzed.     

Levels and differentials in childhood mortality in South Africa, 1977-1998

This study uses the 1996 Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to investigate the level of and trend in infant and child mortality and their covariates in South Africa. Census estimates of childhood mortality are higher than those from the DHS. Analysis suggests that the former overestimate mortality while the latter are probably slightly too low. Both inquiries document a reversal of the trend toward lower mortality in the 1990s. Under-five mortality increased by about a third during the five years up to early 1998. By then the infant mortality rate was about 55 per 1000 and under-five mortality 72 per 1000. Other factors may explain the tapering off of the decline in mortality after the late 1980s but AIDS deaths account for its increase. Inequalities in childhood mortality between population groups, rooted in past discriminatory apartheid policies, shrank between the late-1970s and mid-1990s. However, they remain substantial and are largely unaccounted for by province, metropolitan residence and inter-group differences in mothers' education. The HIV/AIDS epidemic is likely to offset the beneficial impact of post-apartheid pro-poor policies and may exacerbate racial differences in childhood mortality in South Africa. There is an urgent need to improve the routine collection of statistics to monitor child mortality so as to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goals and track inequalities.     

Climate, land-use and Prosopis ferox recruitment in the Quebrada de Humahuaca, Jujuy, Argentina

Prosopis ferox grows in upper-elevation, inter-montane valleys between 2600 and 3800 m in Northwestern Argentina and Southern Bolivia. Throughout its range, P. ferox has largely been used as local fuel, building material and food for livestock. In order to evaluate the causes of the recent increase in P. ferox density and range distribution, we compare tree recruitment of P. ferox at 15 stands in the Quebrada de Humahuaca, Jujuy, Argentina, with the environmental and socioeconomic changes in the past 150–200 years. Based on tree recruitment, a general pattern of greater establishment from the mid-1970s to 1990 was identified. This regional pattern is consistent with precipitation variations during the 20th century showing abundant rainfall in the 1970s and 1980s. In addition, historical records indicate that the density of domestic grazers decreased dramatically in the second half of the 20th century. The reduction of browsing by livestock might have also favored the P. ferox recruitment over this interval. However, during the 1990s reduced establishment has occurred at a time of low stock densities suggesting significant precipitation is necessary for the expansion and establishment of these forests. Simply reducing stocking levels will not lead to the long-term recovery of these forests.     

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Early-Life Mortality in the United States

U.S. early-life (ages 1–24) deaths are tragic, far too common, and largely preventable. Yet demographers have focused scant attention on U.S. early-life mortality patterns, particularly as they vary across racial and ethnic groups. We employed the restricted-use 1999–2011 National Health Interview Survey–Linked Mortality Files and hazard models to examine racial/ethnic differences in early-life mortality. Our results reveal that these disparities are large, strongly related to differences in parental socioeconomic status, and expressed through different causes of death. Compared to non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks experience 60 percent and Mexican Americans 32 percent higher risk of death over the follow-up period, with demographic controls. Our finding that Mexican Americans experience higher early-life mortality risk than non-Hispanic whites differs from much of the literature on adult mortality. We also show that these racial/ethnic differences attenuate with controls for family structure and especially with measures of socioeconomic status. For example, higher mortality risk among Mexican Americans than among non-Hispanic whites is no longer significant once we controlled for mother’s education or family income. Our results strongly suggest that eliminating socioeconomic gaps across groups is the key to enhanced survival for children and adolescents in racial/ethnic minority groups.