Evaluation of two unstructured mathematical models for the penicillin G fedbatch fermentation

The mathematical model for the penicillin G fed-batch fermentation proposed by Heijnen et al. (1979) is compared with the model of Bajpai & Reuß (1980). Although the general structure of these models is similar, the difference in metabolic assumptions and specific growth and production kinetics results in a completely different behaviour towards product optimization. A detailed analysis of both models reveals some physical and biochemical shortcomings. It is shown that it is impossible to make a reliable estimation of the model parameters, only using experimental data of simple constant glucose feed rate fermentations with low initial substrate amount. However, it is demonstrated that some model parameters might be key factors in concluding whether or not altering the substrate feeding strategy has an important influence on the final amount of product.It is illustrated that feeding strategy optimization studies can be a tool in designing experiments for parameter estimation purposes.     

Parameter estimation techniques for interaction and redistribution models: a predator-prey example

Summary The use of parameter estimation techniques for partial differential equations is illustrated using a predatorprey model. Whereas ecologists have often estimated parameters in models, they have not previously been able to do so for models that describe interactions in heterogeneous environments. The techniques we describe for partial differential equations will be generally useful for models of interacting species in spatially complex environments and for models that include the movement of organisms. We demonstrate our methods using field data from a ladybird beetle (Coccinella septempunctata) and aphid (Uroleucon nigrotuberculatum) interaction. Our parameter estimation algorithms can be employed to identify models that explain better than 80% of the observed variance in aphid and ladybird densities. Such parameter estimation techniques can bridge the gap between detail-rich experimental studies and abstract mathematical models. By relating the particular bestfit models identified from our experimental data to other information on Coccinella behavior, we conclude that a term describing local taxis of ladybirds towards prey (aphids in this case) is needed in the model.     

Bayesian lasso for semiparametric structural equation models

There has been great interest in developing nonlinear structural equation models and associated statistical inference procedures, including estimation and model selection methods. In this paper a general semiparametric structural equation model (SSEM) is developed in which the structural equation is composed of nonparametric functions of exogenous latent variables and fixed covariates on a set of latent endogenous variables. A basis representation is used to approximate these nonparametric functions in the structural equation and the Bayesian Lasso method coupled with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used for simultaneous estimation and model selection. The proposed method is illustrated using a simulation study and data from the Affective Dynamics and Individual Differences (ADID) study. Results demonstrate that our method can accurately estimate the unknown parameters and correctly identify the true underlying model.     

Accelerated failure time modeling via nonparametric mixtures

An accelerated failure time (AFT) model assuming a log-linear relationship between failure time and a set of covariates can be either parametric or semiparametric, depending on the distributional assumption for the error term. Both classes of AFT models have been popular in the analysis of censored failure time data. The semiparametric AFT model is more flexible and robust to departures from the distributional assumption than its parametric counterpart. However, the semiparametric AFT model is subject to producing biased results for estimating any quantities involving an intercept. Estimating an intercept requires a separate procedure. Moreover, a consistent estimation of the intercept requires stringent conditions. Thus, essential quantities such as mean failure times might not be reliably estimated using semiparametric AFT models, which can be naturally done in the framework of parametric AFT models. Meanwhile, parametric AFT models can be severely impaired by misspecifications. To overcome this, we propose a new type of the AFT model using a nonparametric Gaussian-scale mixture distribution. We also provide feasible algorithms to estimate the parameters and mixing distribution. The finite sample properties of the proposed estimators are investigated via an extensive stimulation study. The proposed estimators are illustrated using a real dataset.     

A robust methodology for kinetic model parameter estimation for biocatalytic reactions

Effective estimation of parameters in biocatalytic reaction kinetic expressions are very important when building process models to enable evaluation of process technology options and alternative biocatalysts. The kinetic models used to describe enzyme‐catalyzed reactions generally include several parameters, which are strongly correlated with each other. State‐of‐the‐art methodologies such as nonlinear regression (using progress curves) or graphical analysis (using initial rate data, for example, the Lineweaver‐Burke plot, Hanes plot or Dixon plot) often incorporate errors in the estimates and rarely lead to globally optimized parameter values. In this article, a robust methodology to estimate parameters for biocatalytic reaction kinetic expressions is proposed. The methodology determines the parameters in a systematic manner by exploiting the best features of several of the current approaches. The parameter estimation problem is decomposed into five hierarchical steps, where the solution of each of the steps becomes the input for the subsequent step to achieve the final model with the corresponding regressed parameters. The model is further used for validating its performance and determining the correlation of the parameters. The final model with the fitted parameters is able to describe both initial rate and dynamic experiments. Application of the methodology is illustrated with a case study using the ω‐transaminase catalyzed synthesis of 1‐phenylethylamine from acetophenone and 2‐propylamine. © 2012 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 2012     

Parameterization of Multivariate Random Effects Models for Categorical Data

Alternative parameterizations and problems of identification and estimation of multivariate random effects models for categorical responses are investigated. The issues are illustrated in the context of the multivariate binomial logit-normal (BLN) model introduced by Coull and Agresti (2000, Biometrics 56, 73-80). We demonstrate that the BLN model is poorly identified unless proper restrictions are imposed on the parameters. Moreover, estimation of BLN models is unduly computationally complex. In the first application considered by Coull and Agresti, an identification problem results in highly unstable, highly correlated parameter estimates and large standard errors. A probit-normal version of the specified BLN model is demonstrated to be underidentified, whereas the BLN model is empirically underidentified. Identification can be achieved by constraining one of the parameters. We show that a one-factor probit model is equivalent to the probit version of the specified BLN model and that a one-factor logit model is empirically equivalent to the BLN model. Estimation is greatly simplified by using a factor model.     

非线性再生散度随机效应模型的极大似然估计及随机逼近算法

非线性再生散度随机效应模型包括了非线性随机效应模型和指数族非线性随机效应模型等．通过视模型中的随机效应为假想的缺失数据和应用Metropolis-Hastings(简称MH) 算法,提出了模型参数极大似然估计的随机逼近算法．模拟研究和实例分析表明了该算法的可行性．     

A class of latent Markov models for capture-recapture data allowing for time, heterogeneity, and behavior effects

We propose an extension of the latent class model for the analysis of capture-recapture data which allows us to take into account the effect of a capture on the behavior of a subject with respect to future captures. The approach is based on the assumption that the variable indexing the latent class of a subject follows a Markov chain with transition probabilities depending on the previous capture history. Several constraints are allowed on these transition probabilities and on the parameters of the conditional distribution of the capture configuration given the latent process. We also allow for the presence of discrete explanatory variables, which may affect the parameters of the latent process. To estimate the resulting models, we rely on the conditional maximum likelihood approach and for this aim we outline an EM algorithm. We also give some simple rules for point and interval estimation of the population size. The approach is illustrated by applying it to two data sets concerning small mammal populations.     

The parameters of the stochastic leaky integrate-and-fire neuronal model

Five parameters of one of the most common neuronal models, the diffusion leaky integrate-and-fire model, also known as the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck neuronal model, were estimated on the basis of intracellular recording. These parameters can be classified into two categories. Three of them (the membrane time constant, the resting potential and the firing threshold) characterize the neuron itself. The remaining two characterize the neuronal input. The intracellular data were collected during spontaneous firing, which in this case is characterized by a Poisson process of interspike intervals. Two methods for the estimation were applied, the regression method and the maximum-likelihood method. Both methods permit to estimate the input parameters and the membrane time constant in a short time window (a single interspike interval). We found that, at least in our example, the regression method gave more consistent results than the maximum-likelihood method. The estimates of the input parameters show the asymptotical normality, which can be further used for statistical testing, under the condition that the data are collected in different experimental situations. The model neuron, as deduced from the determined parameters, works in a subthreshold regimen. This result was confirmed by both applied methods. The subthreshold regimen for this model is characterized by the Poissonian firing. This is in a complete agreement with the observed interspike interval data. Action Editor: Nicolas Brunel     

控制大田和自然大田稻纵卷叶螟危害水稻生理生态参数估算模型

为了准确监测和客观评估稻纵卷叶螟对水稻生长发育和产量形成的危害,利用ASD Field Spec3地物波谱仪和SPAD-502叶绿素仪分别采集控制大田试验（2015年和2019年）和自然大田试验（2020年）在各生育期（拔节期、孕穗期、灌浆期、成熟期）水稻的冠层高光谱数据和SPAD值,调查采集样点的虫量和水稻卷叶率,对比分析两种试验中稻纵卷叶螟的虫害发生特征、水稻冠层光谱特征和水稻生理生态参数特征,建立基于高光谱参数的水稻受稻纵卷叶螟危害的生理生态参数估算模型。结果表明,（1）两种试验的水稻SPAD值和冠层的红边至近红外波段的反射率均随着稻纵卷叶螟虫害程度的加重而降低,而可见光波段的反射率则相反;（2）自然大田试验的SPAD值和红光至近红外波段的冠层反射率在水稻生长发育前期要显著低于控制大田试验,而到了后期则反而要略高于控制大田试验;（3）综合分析筛选出自然大田试验和控制大田试验中的多个虫害特征参数和植被指数分别构建出了SPAD的单因子和多因子估算模型,各模型均达到了较好的估算效果,在单因子模型中EVI的二项式函数模拟效果最好,而多因子线性回归估测模型的模拟效果优于所有的单因子模型;（4）通过2021年对这些模型的应用检验发现：这些模型中基于虫量、卷叶率、OSAVI、EVI和DVI的单因子估算模型的SPAD估算值与实测值拟合度很高,其R_v²均超过了0.8,达到了比较理想的估算效果,这为稻纵卷叶螟危害下的水稻SPAD值估测提供了一种精度较高且可行的估算方法。     

非线性再生散度随机效应模型的极大似然估计及EM算法

非线性再生散度随机效应模型是指数族非线性随机效应模型和非线性再生散度模型的推广和发展．通过视模型中的随机效应为假想的缺失数据和应用Metropolis-Hastings（MH）算法,提出了模型参数极大似然估计的Monte-Carlo EM（MCEM）算法,并用模拟研究和实例分析说明了该算法的可行性．     

The equilibrium assumption in estimating the parameters of metapopulation models

1.  The construction of a predictive metapopulation model includes three steps: the choice of factors affecting metapopulation dynamics, the choice of model structure, and finally parameter estimation and model testing.
2.  Unless the assumption is made that the metapopulation is at stochastic quasi-equilibrium and unless the method of parameter estimation of model parameters uses that assumption, estimates from a limited amount of data will usually predict a trend in metapopulation size.
3.  This implicit estimation of a trend occurs because extinction-colonization stochasticity, possibly amplified by regional stochasticity, leads to unequal numbers of observed extinction and colonization events during a short study period.
4.  Metapopulation models, such as those based on the logistic regression model, that rely on observed population turnover events in parameter estimation are sensitive to the implicit estimation of a trend.
5.  A new parameter estimation method, based on Monte Carlo inference for statistically implicit models, allows an explicit decision about whether metapopulation quasi-stability is assumed or not.
6. Our confidence in metapopulation model parameter estimates that have been produced from only a few years of data is decreased by the need to know before parameter estimation whether the metapopulation is in quasi-stable state or not.
7. The choice of whether metapopulation stability is assumed or not in parameter estimation should be done consciously. Typical data sets cover only a few years and rarely allow a statistical test of a possible trend. While making the decision about stability one should consider any information about the landscape history and species and metapopulation characteristics.     

Bayesian adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation of genetic parameters

Accurate and fast estimation of genetic parameters that underlie quantitative traits using mixed linear models with additive and dominance effects is of great importance in both natural and breeding populations. Here, we propose a new fast adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm for the estimation of genetic parameters in the linear mixed model with several random effects. In the learning phase of our algorithm, we use the hybrid Gibbs sampler to learn the covariance structure of the variance components. In the second phase of the algorithm, we use this covariance structure to formulate an effective proposal distribution for a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which uses a likelihood function in which the random effects have been integrated out. Compared with the hybrid Gibbs sampler, the new algorithm had better mixing properties and was approximately twice as fast to run. Our new algorithm was able to detect different modes in the posterior distribution. In addition, the posterior mode estimates from the adaptive MCMC method were close to the REML (residual maximum likelihood) estimates. Moreover, our exponential prior for inverse variance components was vague and enabled the estimated mode of the posterior variance to be practically zero, which was in agreement with the support from the likelihood (in the case of no dominance). The method performance is illustrated using simulated data sets with replicates and field data in barley.     

两种萝芙木生物量分配与估测模型研究

采用样本全收获法测量催吐萝芙木（Rauvolfia vomitoria）和萝芙木（Rauvolfia verticillata）的生物量,比较它们的生长特性及生物量分配,同时以基径（d）和株高（h）的组合d^2h为变量与各器官以及单株总生物量进行估测模型的建立。结果表明,两个种生物量间差异非常大,前者明显高于后者。在各自生物量构成中,茎所占的比例最高,为60％左右;而主要药用部位根只占27％左右。所建立的模型中除萝芙木叶以外,其余的判定系数R^2都较高,模型具有一定的适用性,所建立的估测模型可应用于这两个萝芙木种的幼龄植株生物量估测。     

On the estimation of average treatment effects with right-censored time to event outcome and competing risks

We are interested in the estimation of average treatment effects based on right-censored data of an observational study. We focus on causal inference of differences between t-year absolute event risks in a situation with competing risks. We derive doubly robust estimation equations and implement estimators for the nuisance parameters based on working regression models for the outcome, censoring, and treatment distribution conditional on auxiliary baseline covariates. We use the functional delta method to show that these estimators are regular asymptotically linear estimators and estimate their variances based on estimates of their influence functions. In empirical studies, we assess the robustness of the estimators and the coverage of confidence intervals. The methods are further illustrated using data from a Danish registry study.     

Model selection and parameter estimation for ion channel recordings with an application to the K + outward-rectifier in barley leaf

We present a statistical method, and its accompanying algorithms, for the selection of a mathematical model of the gating mechanism of an ion channel and for the estimation of the parameters of this model. The method assumes a hidden Markov model that incorporates filtering, colored noise and state-dependent white excess noise for the recorded data. The model selection and parameter estimation are performed via a Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo. The method is illustrated by its application to single-channel recordings of the K⁺ outward-rectifier in barley leaf.Acknowledgement The authors thank Sake Vogelzang, Bert van Duijn and Bert de Boer for their helpful advice and useful comments and suggestions.     

Estimation in the progressive illness‐death model: A nonexhaustive review

Multistate models can be successfully used for describing complex event history data, for example, describing stages in the disease progression of a patient. The so‐called “illness‐death” model plays a central role in the theory and practice of these models. Many time‐to‐event datasets from medical studies with multiple end points can be reduced to this generic structure. In these models one important goal is the modeling of transition rates but biomedical researchers are also interested in reporting interpretable results in a simple and summarized manner. These include estimates of predictive probabilities, such as the transition probabilities, occupation probabilities, cumulative incidence functions, and the sojourn time distributions. We will give a review of some of the available methods for estimating such quantities in the progressive illness‐death model conditionally (or not) on covariate measures. For some of these quantities estimators based on subsampling are employed. Subsampling, also referred to as landmarking, leads to small sample sizes and usually to heavily censored data leading to estimators with higher variability. To overcome this issue estimators based on a preliminary estimation (presmoothing) of the probability of censoring may be used. Among these, the presmoothed estimators for the cumulative incidences are new. We also introduce feasible estimation methods for the cumulative incidence function conditionally on covariate measures. The proposed methods are illustrated using real data. A comparative simulation study of several estimation approaches is performed and existing software in the form of R packages is discussed.     

Numerical algorithms for estimation and calculation of parameters in modeling pest population dynamics and evolution of resistance

Computational simulation models can provide a way of understanding and predicting insect population dynamics and evolution of resistance, but the usefulness of such models depends on generating or estimating the values of key parameters. In this paper, we describe four numerical algorithms generating or estimating key parameters for simulating four different processes within such models. First, we describe a novel method to generate an offspring genotype table for one- or two-locus genetic models for simulating evolution of resistance, and how this method can be extended to create offspring genotype tables for models with more than two loci. Second, we describe how we use a generalized inverse matrix to find a least-squares solution to an over-determined linear system for estimation of parameters in probit models of kill rates. This algorithm can also be used for the estimation of parameters of Freundlich adsorption isotherms. Third, we describe a simple algorithm to randomly select initial frequencies of genotypes either without any special constraints or with some pre-selected frequencies. Also we give a simple method to calculate the “stable” Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium proportions that would result from these initial frequencies. Fourth we describe how the problem of estimating the intrinsic rate of natural increase of a population can be converted to a root-finding problem and how the bisection algorithm can then be used to find the rate. We implemented all these algorithms using MATLAB and Python code; the key statements in both codes consist of only a few commands and are given in the appendices. The results of numerical experiments are also provided to demonstrate that our algorithms are valid and efficient.     

Bayesian estimation of two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event with INLA: Interests for cancer clinical trial evaluation

Two-part joint models for a longitudinal semicontinuous biomarker and a terminal event have been recently introduced based on frequentist estimation. The biomarker distribution is decomposed into a probability of positive value and the expected value among positive values. Shared random effects can represent the association structure between the biomarker and the terminal event. The computational burden increases compared to standard joint models with a single regression model for the biomarker. In this context, the frequentist estimation implemented in the R package frailtypack can be challenging for complex models (i.e., a large number of parameters and dimension of the random effects). As an alternative, we propose a Bayesian estimation of two-part joint models based on the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm to alleviate the computational burden and fit more complex models. Our simulation studies confirm that INLA provides accurate approximation of posterior estimates and to reduced computation time and variability of estimates compared to frailtypack in the situations considered. We contrast the Bayesian and frequentist approaches in the analysis of two randomized cancer clinical trials (GERCOR and PRIME studies), where INLA has a reduced variability for the association between the biomarker and the risk of event. Moreover, the Bayesian approach was able to characterize subgroups of patients associated with different responses to treatment in the PRIME study. Our study suggests that the Bayesian approach using the INLA algorithm enables to fit complex joint models that might be of interest in a wide range of clinical applications.     

Ridge estimation of the VAR(1) model and its time series chain graph from multivariate time‐course omics data

Omics experiments endowed with a time‐course design may enable us to uncover the dynamic interplay among genes of cellular processes. Multivariate techniques (like VAR(1) models describing the temporal and contemporaneous relations among variates) that may facilitate this goal are hampered by the high‐dimensionality of the resulting data. This is resolved by the presented ridge regularized maximum likelihood estimation procedure for the VAR(1) model. Information on the absence of temporal and contemporaneous relations may be incorporated in this procedure. Its computational efficient implemention is discussed. The estimation procedure is accompanied with an LOOCV scheme to determine the associated penalty parameters. Downstream exploitation of the estimated VAR(1) model is outlined: an empirical Bayes procedure to identify the interesting temporal and contemporaneous relationships, impulse response analysis, mutual information analysis, and covariance decomposition into the (graphical) relations among variates. In a simulation study the presented ridge estimation procedure outperformed a sparse competitor in terms of Frobenius loss of the estimates, while their selection properties are on par. The proposed machinery is illustrated in the reconstruction of the p53 signaling pathway during HPV‐induced cellular transformation. The methodology is implemented in the ragt2ridges R‐package available from CRAN.