Spatiotemporal sampling patterns in the 230 million year fossil record of terrestrial crocodylomorphs and their impact on diversity

The 24 extant crocodylian species are the remnants of a once much more diverse and widespread clade. Crocodylomorpha has an approximately 230 million year evolutionary history, punctuated by a series of radiations and extinctions. However, the group's fossil record is biased. Previous studies have reconstructed temporal patterns in subsampled crocodylomorph palaeobiodiversity, but have not explicitly examined variation in spatial sampling, nor the quality of this record. We compiled a dataset of all taxonomically diagnosable non‐marine crocodylomorph species (393). Based on the number of phylogenetic characters that can be scored for all published fossils of each species, we calculated a completeness value for each taxon. Mean average species completeness (56%) is largely consistent within subgroups and for different body size classes, suggesting no significant biases across the crocodylomorph tree. In general, average completeness values are highest in the Mesozoic, with an overall trend of decreasing completeness through time. Many extant taxa are identified in the fossil record from very incomplete remains, but this might be because their provenance closely matches the species’ present‐day distribution, rather than through autapomorphies. Our understanding of nearly all crocodylomorph macroevolutionary ‘events’ is essentially driven by regional patterns, with no global sampling signal. Palaeotropical sampling is especially poor for most of the group's history. Spatiotemporal sampling bias impedes our understanding of several Mesozoic radiations, whereas molecular divergence times for Crocodylia are generally in close agreement with the fossil record. However, the latter might merely be fortuitous, i.e. divergences happened to occur during our ephemeral spatiotemporal sampling windows.     

HOW DO GEOLOGICAL SAMPLING BIASES AFFECT STUDIES OF MORPHOLOGICAL EVOLUTION IN DEEP TIME? A CASE STUDY OF PTEROSAUR (REPTILIA: ARCHOSAURIA) DISPARITY

A fundamental contribution of paleobiology to macroevolutionary theory has been the illumination of deep time patterns of diversification. However, recent work has suggested that taxonomic diversity counts taken from the fossil record may be strongly biased by uneven spatiotemporal sampling. Although morphological diversity (disparity) is also frequently used to examine evolutionary radiations, no empirical work has yet addressed how disparity might be affected by uneven fossil record sampling. Here, we use pterosaurs (Mesozoic flying reptiles) as an exemplar group to address this problem. We calculate multiple disparity metrics based upon a comprehensive anatomical dataset including a novel phylogenetic correction for missing data, statistically compare these metrics to four geological sampling proxies, and use multiple regression modeling to assess the importance of uneven sampling and exceptional fossil deposits (Lagerstätten). We find that range‐based disparity metrics are strongly affected by uneven fossil record sampling, and should therefore be interpreted cautiously. The robustness of variance‐based metrics to sample size and geological sampling suggests that they can be more confidently interpreted as reflecting true biological signals. In addition, our results highlight the problem of high levels of missing data for disparity analyses, indicating a pressing need for more theoretical and empirical work.     

Adaptive Radiations in the Context of Macroevolutionary Theory: A Paleontological Perspective

Adaptive radiations are often invoked anytime clades show significant bursts of diversification, but it is important to not simply assume that any radiating clade constitutes an adaptive radiation. In addition, several highly relevant macroevolutionary concepts including the Turnover Pulse Hypothesis, the Effect Hypothesis, exaptation, and species selection, have not been considered in the adaptive radiations literature. Here, these concepts are integrated into the theory of evolutionary radiations in general, and adaptive radiations in particular, and different types of evolutionary radiations are identified, including geographic radiations. Special emphasis is placed on considering the role that abiotic as opposed to biotic factors may play in motivating diversification during evolutionary radiations. Further, recent paleontological data suggesting that rather than organismal adaptation it may be principally abiotic factors, such as climate change and a taxon??s presence in a geographically complex region, that cause clades to diversify will be described. The fossil record, the source of the initial hallmark examples of adaptive radiation, now appears to show little concrete support for this phenomenon.     

To what extent do new fossil discoveries change our understanding of clade evolution? A cautionary tale from burying beetles (Coleoptera: Nicrophorus)

Divergence time estimates derived from phylogenies are crucial to infer historical biogeography and diversification dynamics. Yet, the impact of fossil record incompleteness on macroevolutionary reconstructions remains equivocal. Here, we investigate to what extent gaps in the fossil record can impinge downstream evolutionary inferences in the beetle family Silphidae. Recent discoveries have pushed back the fossil record of this group from the Eocene into the Jurassic. We estimated the divergence times of the family using both its currently understood fossil record and the fossil record known prior to these recent discoveries. All fossil calibrations were informed with different parametric distributions to investigate the weight of priors on posterior age estimates. Based on time‐calibrated trees, we assessed the impact of fossil calibrations on the inference of ancestral ranges and diversification rate dynamics in the genus Nicrophorus. Depending upon the selected sets of fossil constraints, the age discrepancies had a major impact on the macroevolutionary inferences: the biogeographic extrapolations relative to paleogeography are markedly contrasting, and the calculated rates at which species form or go extinct (and when they varied) are strikingly different. We show that soft prior distributions do not necessarily alleviate such shortcomings therefore preventing the inference of reliable macroevolutionary patterns in groups presenting a taphonomic bias in their fossil record.     

Developmental bias,macroevolution, and the fossil record

A fuller understanding of the role of developmental bias in shaping large‐scale evolutionary patterns requires integrating bias (the probability distribution of variation accessible to an ancestral phenotype) with clade dynamics (the differential survival and production of species and evolutionary lineages). This synthesis could proceed as a two‐way exchange between the developmental data available to neontologists and the strictly phenotypic but richly historical and dynamic data available to paleontologists. Analyses starting in extant populations could aim to predict macroevolution in the fossil record from observed developmental bias, while analyses starting in the fossil record, particularly the record of extant species and lineages, could aim to predict developmental bias from macroevolutionary patterns, including the broad range of extinct phenotypes. Analyses in multivariate morphospaces are especially effective when coupled with phylogeny, theoretical and developmental models, and diversity–disparity plots. This research program will also require assessing the “heritability” of an ancestral bias across phylogeny, and the tendency for bias change in strength and orientation over evolutionary time. Such analyses will help find a set of general rules for the macroevolutionary effects of developmental bias, including its impact on and interactions with the other intrinsic and extrinsic factors governing the movement, expansion, and contraction of clades in morphospace.     

Extant‐only comparative methods fail to recover the disparity preserved in the bird fossil record

Most extant species are in clades with poor fossil records, and recent studies of comparative methods show they have low power to infer even highly simplified models of trait evolution without fossil data. Birds are a well‐studied radiation, yet their early evolutionary patterns are still contentious. The fossil record suggests that birds underwent a rapid ecological radiation after the end‐Cretaceous mass extinction, and several smaller, subsequent radiations. This hypothesized series of repeated radiations from fossil data is difficult to test using extant data alone. By uniting morphological and phylogenetic data on 604 extant genera of birds with morphological data on 58 species of extinct birds from 50 million years ago, the “halfway point” of avian evolution, I have been able to test how well extant‐only methods predict the diversity of fossil forms. All extant‐only methods underestimate the disparity, although the ratio of within‐ to between‐clade disparity does suggest high early rates. The failure of standard models to predict high early disparity suggests that recent radiations are obscuring deep time patterns in the evolution of birds. Metrics from different models can be used in conjunction to provide more valuable insights than simply finding the model with the highest relative fit.     

LIKELIHOOD-BASED INFERENCE IN ISOLATION-BY-DISTANCE MODELS USING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-FREQUENCY ALLELES

Estimating dispersal distances from population genetic data provides an important alternative to logistically taxing methods for directly observing dispersal. Although methods for estimating dispersal rates between a modest number of discrete demes are well developed, methods of inference applicable to "isolation-by-distance" models are much less established. Here, we present a method for estimating ρσ², the product of population density (ρ) and the variance of the dispersal displacement distribution (σ²). The method is based on the assumption that low-frequency alleles are identical by descent. Hence, the extent of geographic clustering of such alleles, relative to their frequency in the population, provides information about ρσ². We show that a novel likelihood-based method can infer this composite parameter with a modest bias in a lattice model of isolation-by-distance. For calculating the likelihood, we use an importance sampling approach to average over the unobserved intraallelic genealogies, where the intraallelic genealogies are modeled as a pure birth process. The approach also leads to a likelihood-ratio test of isotropy of dispersal, that is, whether dispersal distances on two axes are different. We test the performance of our methods using simulations of new mutations in a lattice model and illustrate its use with a dataset from Arabidopsis thaliana .     

Modularity and heterochrony in the evolution of the ceratopsian dinosaur frill

The fossil record provides compelling examples of heterochrony at macroevolutionary scales such as the peramorphic giant antlers of the Irish elk. Heterochrony has also been invoked in the evolution of the distinctive cranial frill of ceratopsian dinosaurs such as Triceratops. Although ceratopsian frills vary in size, shape, and ornamentation, quantitative analyses that would allow for testing hypotheses of heterochrony are lacking. Here, we use geometric morphometrics to examine frill shape variation across ceratopsian diversity and within four species preserving growth series. We then test whether the frill constitutes an evolvable module both across and within species, and compare growth trajectories of taxa with ontogenetic growth series to identify heterochronic processes. Evolution of the ceratopsian frill consisted primarily of progressive expansion of its caudal and caudolateral margins, with morphospace occupation following taxonomic groups. Although taphonomic distortion represents a complicating factor, our data support modularity both across and within species. Peramorphosis played an important role in frill evolution, with acceleration operating early in neoceratopsian evolution followed by progenesis in later diverging cornosaurian ceratopsians. Peramorphic evolution of the ceratopsian frill may have been facilitated by the decoupling of this structure from the jaw musculature, an inference that predicts an expansion of morphospace occupation and higher evolutionary rates among ceratopsids as indeed borne out by our data. However, denser sampling of the meager record of early‐diverging taxa is required to test this further.     

INTEGRATING FOSSILS WITH MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES IMPROVES INFERENCE OF TRAIT EVOLUTION

Comparative biologists often attempt to draw inferences about tempo and mode in evolution by comparing the fit of evolutionary models to phylogenetic comparative data consisting of a molecular phylogeny with branch lengths and trait measurements from extant taxa. These kinds of approaches ignore historical evidence for evolutionary pattern and process contained in the fossil record. In this article, we show through simulation that incorporation of fossil information dramatically improves our ability to distinguish among models of quantitative trait evolution using comparative data. We further suggest a novel Bayesian approach that allows fossil information to be integrated even when explicit phylogenetic hypotheses are lacking for extinct representatives of extant clades. By applying this approach to a comparative dataset comprising body sizes for caniform carnivorans, we show that incorporation of fossil information not only improves ancestral state estimates relative to those derived from extant taxa alone, but also results in preference of a model of evolution with trend toward large body size over alternative models such as Brownian motion or Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes. Our approach highlights the importance of considering fossil information when making macroevolutionary inference, and provides a way to integrate the kind of sparse fossil information that is available to most evolutionary biologists.     

Understanding the effect of competition during evolutionary radiations: an integrated model of phenotypic and species diversification

Competition can drive macroevolutionary change, for example during adaptive radiations. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how it shapes diversification processes and patterns. To better understand the macroevolutionary consequences of competition, as well as the signal left on phylogenetic data, we developed a model linking trait evolution and species diversification in an ecological context. We find four main results: first, competition spurs trait diversity but not necessarily species richness; second, competition produces slowdowns in species diversification even in the absence of explicit ecological limits, but not in phenotypic diversification even in the presence of such limits; third, early burst patterns do not provide a reliable way of testing for adaptive radiations; and fourth, looking for phylogenetic signal in trait data and support for phenotypic models incorporating competition is a better alternative. Our results clarify the macroevolutionary consequences of competition and could help design more powerful tests of adaptive radiations in nature.     

The Macroevolution of our Ancient Lineage: What We Know (or Think We Know) about Early Hominin Diversity

Quantitative, evolutionary models that incorporate within- and between-species variation are critical for interpreting the fossil record of human diversity, and for making taxonomic distinctions. However, small sample sizes, sexual dimorphism, temporal trends, geographic variation, and the limited number of relevant extant models have always made the consideration of variation difficult for paleoanthropologists. Here we provide a brief overview of current early hominin diversity. We then argue that for many species our limited understanding of within species variation hampers our ability to make taxonomic decisions with any level of statistical certainty. Perhaps more significantly, the underlying causes of between-species variation among early hominins are poorly studied. There have been few attempts to correlate aspects of the phenotype with meaningful evidence for niche differentiation, to demonstrate the selective advantage of traits, or to provide other evidence for macroevolutionary divergence. Moreover, current depictions of vast pattern (but not size) diversity are inconsistent with expectations derived from most other extant primate clades that have adaptively radiated. If indeed the early hominin record is highly speciose, the reasons for this remain unclear.     

Skeletal completeness of the non‐avian theropod dinosaur fossil record

Non‐avian theropods were a highly successful clade of bipedal, predominantly carnivorous, dinosaurs. Their diversity and macroevolutionary patterns have been the subject of many studies. Changes in fossil specimen completeness through time and space can bias our understanding of macroevolution. Here, we quantify the completeness of 455 non‐avian theropod species using the skeletal completeness metric (SCM), which calculates the proportion of a complete skeleton preserved for a specimen. Temporal patterns of theropod skeletal completeness show peaks in the Carnian, Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian and Barremian–Aptian, and lows in the Berriasian and Hauterivian. Lagerstätten primarily drive the peaks in completeness and observed taxonomic diversity in the Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian and the Barremian–Aptian. Theropods have a significantly lower distribution of completeness scores than contemporary sauropodomorph dinosaurs but change in completeness through time for the two groups shows a significant correlation when conservation Lagerstätten are excluded, possibly indicating that both records are primarily driven by geology and sampling availability. Our results reveal relatively weak temporal sampling biases acting on the theropod record but relatively strong spatial and environmental biases. Asia has a significantly more complete record than any other continent, the mid northern latitudes have the highest abundance of finds, and most complete theropod skeletons come from lacustrine and aeolian environments. We suggest that these patterns result from historical research focus, modern climate dynamics, and depositional transportation energy plus association with conservation Lagerstätten, respectively. Furthermore, we find possible ecological biases acting on different theropod subgroups, but body size does not influence theropod completeness on a global scale.     

Testing the effect of the rock record on diversity: a multidisciplinary approach to elucidating the generic richness of sauropodomorph dinosaurs through time

The accurate reconstruction of palaeobiodiversity patterns is central to a detailed understanding of the macroevolutionary history of a group of organisms. However, there is increasing evidence that diversity patterns observed directly from the fossil record are strongly influenced by fluctuations in the quality of our sampling of the rock record; thus, any patterns we see may reflect sampling biases, rather than genuine biological signals. Previous dinosaur diversity studies have suggested that fluctuations in sauropodomorph palaeobiodiversity reflect genuine biological signals, in comparison to theropods and ornithischians whose diversity seems to be largely controlled by the rock record. Most previous diversity analyses that have attempted to take into account the effects of sampling biases have used only a single method or proxy: here we use a number of techniques in order to elucidate diversity. A global database of all known sauropodomorph body fossil occurrences (2024) was constructed. A taxic diversity curve for all valid sauropodomorph genera was extracted from this database and compared statistically with several sampling proxies (rock outcrop area and dinosaur‐bearing formations and collections), each of which captures a different aspect of fossil record sampling. Phylogenetic diversity estimates, residuals and sample‐based rarefaction (including the first attempt to capture ‘cryptic’ diversity in dinosaurs) were implemented to investigate further the effects of sampling. After ‘removal’ of biases, sauropodomorph diversity appears to be genuinely high in the Norian, Pliensbachian–Toarcian, Bathonian–Callovian and Kimmeridgian–Tithonian (with a small peak in the Aptian), whereas low diversity levels are recorded for the Oxfordian and Berriasian–Barremian, with the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary seemingly representing a real diversity trough. Observed diversity in the remaining Triassic–Jurassic stages appears to be largely driven by sampling effort. Late Cretaceous diversity is difficult to elucidate and it is possible that this interval remains relatively under‐sampled. Despite its distortion by sampling biases, much of sauropodomorph palaeobiodiversity can be interpreted as a reflection of genuine biological signals, and fluctuations in sea level may account for some of these diversity patterns.     

Continental faunal exchange and the asymmetrical radiation of carnivores

Lineages arriving on islands may undergo explosive evolutionary radiations owing to the wealth of ecological opportunities. Although studies on insular taxa have improved our understanding of macroevolutionary phenomena, we know little about the macroevolutionary dynamics of continental exchanges. Here we study the evolution of eight Carnivora families that have migrated across the Northern Hemisphere to investigate if continental invasions also result in explosive diversification dynamics. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate speciation and extinction rates from a substantial dataset of fossil occurrences while accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Our analyses revealed a strongly asymmetrical pattern in which North American lineages invading Eurasia underwent explosive radiations, whereas lineages invading North America maintained uniform diversification dynamics. These invasions into Eurasia were characterized by high rates of speciation and extinction. The radiation of the arriving lineages in Eurasia coincide with the decline of established lineages or phases of climate change, suggesting differences in the ecological settings between the continents may be responsible for the disparity in diversification dynamics. These results reveal long-term outcomes of biological invasions and show that the importance of explosive radiations in shaping diversity extends beyond insular systems and have significant impact at continental scales.     

Fossilized embryos are widespread but the record is temporally and taxonomically biased

We report new discoveries of embryos and egg capsules from the Lower Cambrian of Siberia, Middle Cambrian of Australia and Lower Ordovician of North America. Together with existing records, embryos have now been recorded from four of the seven continents. However, the new discoveries highlight secular and systematic biases in the fossil record of embryonic stages. The temporal window within which the embryos and egg capsules are found is of relatively short duration; it ends in the Early Ordovician and is roughly coincident with that of typical "Orsten"-type faunas. The reduced occurrence of such fossils has been attributed to reducing levels of phosphate in marine waters during the early Paleozoic, but may also be owing to the increasing depth of sediment mixing by infaunal metazoans. Furthermore, most records younger than the earliest Cambrian are of a single kind-large eggs and embryos of the priapulid-like scalidophoran Markuelia. We explore alternative explanations for the low taxonomic diversity of embryos recovered thus far, including sampling, size, anatomy, ecology, and environment, concluding that the preponderance of Markuelia embryos is due to its precocious development of cuticle at an embryonic stage, predisposing it to preservation through action as a substrate on which microbially mediated precipitation of authigenic calcium phosphate may occur. The fossil record of embryos may be limited to a late Neoproterozoic to early Ordovician snapshot that is subject to dramatic systematic bias. Together, these biases must be considered seriously in attempts to use the fossil record to arbitrate between hypotheses of developmental and life history evolution implicated in the origin of metazoan clades.     

The Developmental Origins of Mosaic Evolution in the Primate Limb Skeleton

The central hypothesis of this paper is that basic properties of vertebrate limb development bias the generation of phenotypic variation in certain directions, and that these biases establish focal units, or regions, of evolutionary change within the primate hand and foot. These focal units include (1) a preaxial domain (digit I, hallux or pollex, metapodial and proximal phalanx), (2) a postaxial domain (metapodials and phalanges of digits II?CV), and (3) a digit tip domain (terminal phalanges and nails/claws of rays I?CV). The existence of these focal units therefore provides a mechanistic basis for mosaic evolution within the hand and foot, and can be applied to make specific predictions about which features of the limb skeleton are most likely to be altered in primate adaptive radiations over time. Examination of the early primate fossil record provides support for this model, and suggests that the existence of variational tendencies in limb development has played a major role in guiding the origin and evolution of primate skeletal form.     

Dinosaur diversity and the rock record

Palaeobiodiversity analysis underpins macroevolutionary investigations, allowing identification of mass extinctions and adaptive radiations. However, recent large-scale studies on marine invertebrates indicate that geological factors play a central role in moulding the shape of diversity curves and imply that many features of such curves represent sampling artefacts, rather than genuine evolutionary events. In order to test whether similar biases affect diversity estimates for terrestrial taxa, we compiled genus-richness estimates for three Mesozoic dinosaur clades (Ornithischia, Sauropodomorpha and Theropoda). Linear models of expected genus richness were constructed for each clade, using the number of dinosaur-bearing formations available through time as a proxy for the amount of fossiliferous rock outcrop. Modelled diversity estimates were then compared with observed patterns. Strong statistically robust correlations demonstrate that almost all aspects of ornithischian and theropod diversity curves can be explained by geological megabiases, whereas the sauropodomorph record diverges from modelled predictions and may be a stronger contender for identifying evolutionary signals. In contrast to other recent studies, we identify a marked decline in dinosaur genus richness during the closing stages of the Cretaceous Period, indicating that the clade decreased in diversity for several million years prior to the final extinction of non-avian dinosaurs at the Cretaceous–Palaeocene boundary.     

New Phylogenetic Models Incorporating Interval-Specific Dispersal Dynamics Improve Inference of Disease Spread

Phylodynamic methods reveal the spatial and temporal dynamics of viral geographic spread, and have featured prominently in studies of the COVID-19 pandemic. Virtually all such studies are based on phylodynamic models that assume—despite direct and compelling evidence to the contrary—that rates of viral geographic dispersal are constant through time. Here, we: (1) extend phylodynamic models to allow both the average and relative rates of viral dispersal to vary independently between pre-specified time intervals; (2) implement methods to infer the number and timing of viral dispersal events between areas; and (3) develop statistics to assess the absolute fit of discrete-geographic phylodynamic models to empirical datasets. We first validate our new methods using simulations, and then apply them to a SARS-CoV-2 dataset from the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that: (1) under simulation, failure to accommodate interval-specific variation in the study data will severely bias parameter estimates; (2) in practice, our interval-specific discrete-geographic phylodynamic models can significantly improve the relative and absolute fit to empirical data; and (3) the increased realism of our interval-specific models provides qualitatively different inferences regarding key aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic—revealing significant temporal variation in global viral dispersal rates, viral dispersal routes, and the number of viral dispersal events between areas—and alters interpretations regarding the efficacy of intervention measures to mitigate the pandemic.     

The mosasaur fossil record through the lens of fossil completeness

The quality of the fossil record affects our understanding of macroevolutionary patterns. Palaeodiversity is filtered through geological and human processes; efforts to correct for these biases are part of a debate concerning the role of sampling proxies and standardization in biodiversity models. We analyse the fossil record of mosasaurs in terms of fossil completeness as a measure of fossil quality, using three novel, correlating metrics of fossil completeness and 4083 specimens. A new qualitative measure of character completeness (QCM) correlates with the phylogenetic character completeness metric. Mean completeness by species decreases with specimen count; average completeness by substage varies significantly. Mean specimen completeness is higher for species‐named fossils than those identified to genus and family. We consider the effect of tooth‐only specimens. Importantly, we find that completeness of species does not correlate with completeness of specimens. Completeness varies by palaeogeography: North American specimens show higher completeness than those from Eurasia and Gondwana. These metrics can be used to identify exceptional preservation; specimen completeness varies significantly by both formation and lithology. The Belgian Ciply Formation displays the highest completeness; clay lithologies show higher completeness values. Neither species diversity nor sea level correlates significantly with fossil completeness. A generalized least squares (GLS) analysis using multiple variables agrees with this result, but reveals two variables with significant predictive value for modelling averaged diversity: sea level, and mosasaur and plesiosaur‐bearing formations (the latter is redundant with diversity). Mosasaur completeness is not driven by sea level, nor does completeness limit the mosasaur diversity signal.