Measles Outbreak in South Africa: Epidemiology of Laboratory-Confirmed Measles Cases and Assessment of Intervention, 2009–2011

Background

Since 1995, measles vaccination at nine and 18 months has been routine in South Africa; however, coverage seldom reached >95%. We describe the epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients and assess the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign during the 2009 to 2011 measles outbreak in South Africa.

Methods

Serum specimens collected from patients with suspected-measles were tested for measles-specific IgM antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and genotypes of a subset were determined. To estimate the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign, we compared incidence in the seven months pre- (1 September 2009–11 April 2010) and seven months post-vaccination campaign (24 May 2010–31 December 2010) periods in seven provinces of South Africa.

Results

A total of 18,431 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were reported from all nine provinces of South Africa (cumulative incidence 37 per 100,000 population). The highest cumulative incidence per 100,000 population was in children aged <1 year (603), distributed as follows: <6 months (302/100,000), 6 to 8 months (1083/100,000) and 9 to 11 months (724/100,000). Forty eight percent of case-patients were ≥5 years (cumulative incidence 54/100,000). Cumulative incidence decreased with increasing age to 2/100,000 in persons ≥40 years. A single strain of measles virus (genotype B3) circulated throughout the outbreak. Prior to the vaccination campaign, cumulative incidence in the targeted vs. non-targeted age group was 5.9-fold higher, decreasing to 1.7 fold following the campaign (P<0.001) and an estimated 1,380 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were prevented.

Conclusion

We observed a reduction in measles incidence following the nationwide mass vaccination campaign even though it was conducted approximately one year after the outbreak started. A booster dose at school entry may be of value given the high incidence in persons >5 years.     

Revaccination of children during school-based measles outbreaks: potential impact of a new policy recommendation.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact of revaccination on measles outbreak control during school-based epidemics. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Thirty-two public elementary and high schools in 14 communities on the west island of Montreal. PARTICIPANTS: All 19,439 children attending these schools during the 1989 measles epidemic in Quebec. INTERVENTION: After notification of a case children with provider-verified records of vaccination on or after their first birthday were identified; the remaining children were vaccinated or excluded from school. OUTCOME MEASURE: Clinical or confirmed measles cases not prevented by this intervention that could have been prevented had revaccination been included during the outbreak. RESULTS: Of the 88 measles cases (74 confirmed) proof of one adequate vaccination was present in 48 (55%). Intervention generally occurred within 5 school days after case notification. The nonpreventable cases involved 75 children who had measles onset before the intervention and 11 (7 vaccinated) who had onset within 8 days after the intervention. The two remaining cases occurred 20 and 25 days after the intervention among nonvaccinated students who refused to be vaccinated. Except for these two cases measles was eliminated at every school. Application of the new Canadian guidelines for measles outbreak control would have required the administration of at least 10,000 additional doses during the outbreak to students vaccinated before 1980; implementation of the new US guidelines would have required the administration of 16,629 additional doses to children previously vaccinated only once. Well-enforced provincial regulations ensuring vaccination of every student upon school entry might have prevented 38 (43%) of the cases. The US recommendation of two routine doses of vaccine before school entry might have prevented 86 (98%) of the cases. However, revaccination during the outbreak would not have prevented a single additional case. CONCLUSION: Revaccination of previously vaccinated students during a measles outbreak would have been costly and of little benefit.     

Control of a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the GB poultry flock

The identification of H5N1 in domestic poultry in Europe has increased the risk of infection reaching most industrialized poultry populations. Here, using detailed data on the poultry population in Great Britain (GB), we show that currently planned interventions based on movement restrictions can be expected to control the majority of outbreaks. The probability that controls fail to keep an outbreak small only rises to significant levels if most transmission occurs via mechanisms which are both untraceable and largely independent of the local density of premises. We show that a predictor of the need to intensify control efforts in GB is whether an outbreak exceeds 20 infected premises. In such a scenario neither localized reactive vaccination nor localized culling are likely to have a substantial impact. The most effective of these contingent interventions are large radius (10 km) localized culling and national vaccination. However, the modest impact of these approaches must be balanced against their substantial inconvenience and cost.     

The impact of local heterogeneity on alternative control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease

The 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK resulted in the death of nearly 10 million livestock at a cost that was estimated to be up to 8 billion pounds. Owing to the controversy surrounding the epidemic, the question of whether or not alternative policies would have resulted in significantly better control of the epidemic remains of great interest. A hexagonal lattice simulation of FMD in Cumbria is used to address the central question of whether or not better use could have been made of expert knowledge of FMD transmission to target pre-emptive culling, by assuming that the premises at greatest risk of becoming infected can be targeted for culling. The 2000 UK census and the epidemiological database collected during the epidemic are used to describe key characteristics of disease transmission, and the model is fit to the epidemic time-series. Under the assumptions of the model, the parameters that best fit the epidemic in Cumbria indicate that a policy based on expert knowledge would have exacerbated the epidemic compared with the policy as implemented. However, targeting more distant, high-risk farms could be more valuable under different epidemic conditions, notably, if risk factors of sufficient magnitude could be identified to aid in prioritizing vaccination or culling of farms at high risk of becoming infected.     

枣庄市2008年麻疹减毒活疫苗强化免疫效果评价

为了评价枣庄市麻疹疫苗(MV)强化免疫的效果,于2008年在所辖区开展了流行病学调查、麻疹血清学监测和费用-效益分析等,对MV强化免疫进行了评价。枣庄市麻疹年平均报告发病率在强化免疫前为14.1/10万,对1-6岁儿童开展MV强化免疫后,2010年麻疹发病率为0.8/10万,降低了93.5%;1-6岁儿童麻疹发病构成,强化免疫前为39.87%,强化免疫后为25.90%,大大减少了5岁以下儿童的麻疹发病;强化免疫后,1-6岁儿童麻疹抗体阳性率为99.3%,抗体几何平均滴度(GMT)从强化免疫前的1∶563.0增长到强化免疫后的1∶814.9。开展MV强化免疫费用-效益比值为1∶2.23~1∶3.12。开展MV初始化强化免疫是加速麻疹控制最有效的措施之一。     

Knowledge,Attitudes, and Practices regarding Diarrhea and Cholera following an Oral Cholera Vaccination Campaign in the Solomon Islands

BackgroundIn response to a 2011 cholera outbreak in Papua New Guinea, the Government of the Solomon Islands initiated a cholera prevention program which included cholera disease prevention and treatment messaging, community meetings, and a pre-emptive cholera vaccination campaign targeting 11,000 children aged 1–15 years in selected communities in Choiseul and Western Provinces.ConclusionsThis pre-emptive OCV campaign in a cholera-naïve community provided a unique opportunity to assess household-level knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding diarrhea, cholera, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). Our findings suggest that education provided during the vaccination campaign may have reinforced earlier mass messaging about cholera and diarrheal disease in vaccinated communities.     

Cluster Survey Evaluation of a Measles Vaccination Campaign in Jharkhand,India, 2012

IntroductionIndia was the last country in the world to implement a two-dose strategy for measles-containing vaccine (MCV) in 2010. As part of measles second-dose introduction, phased measles vaccination campaigns were conducted during 2010–2013, targeting 131 million children 9 months to <10 years of age. We performed a post-campaign coverage survey to estimate measles vaccination coverage in Jharkhand state.MethodsA multi-stage cluster survey was conducted 2 months after the phase 2 measles campaign occurred in 19 of 24 districts of Jharkhand during November 2011–March 2012. Vaccination status of children 9 months to <10 years of age was documented based on vaccination card or mother’s recall. Coverage estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for 1,018 children were calculated using survey methods.ResultsIn the Jharkhand phase 2 campaign, MCV coverage among children aged 9 months to <10 years was 61.0% (95% CI: 54.4–67.7%). Significant differences in coverage were observed between rural (65.0%; 95% CI: 56.8–73.2%) and urban areas (45.6%; 95% CI: 37.3–53.9%). Campaign awareness among mothers was low (51.5%), and the most commonly reported reason for non-vaccination was being unaware of the campaign (69.4%). At the end of the campaign, 53.7% (95% CI: 46.5–60.9%) of children 12 months to <10 years of age received ≥2 MCV doses, while a large proportion of children remained under-vaccinated (34.0%, 95% CI: 28.0–40.0%) or unvaccinated (12.3%, 95% CI: 9.3–16.2%).ConclusionsImplementation of the national measles campaign was a significant achievement towards measles elimination in India. In Jharkhand, campaign performance was below the target coverage of ≥90% set by the Government of India, and challenges in disseminating campaign messages were identified. Efforts towards increasing two-dose MCV coverage are needed to achieve the recently adopted measles elimination goal in India and the South-East Asia region.     

Effect of Measles Vaccination on Incidence of Measles in the Community

A study of the effect of measles vaccination on the incidence of the disease in eight separate areas of England and Wales was begun in 1966. It showed an inverse association between the proportion of children vaccinated and the incidence of measles in the area in the following year, but measles epidemics occurred in several of the areas in subsequent years, despite continuing vaccinations.Measles vaccination was introduced on a large scale in Britain in 1968. Analysis of the notification and vaccination statistics shows that the vaccination of about 10% of the child population (under 15 years) in 1968 sufficed to “replace” the measles epidemic which had been expected in the period October 1968 to September 1969 by a low incidence of the disease, typical of that in previous “interepidemic” years. Further, the effect of the vaccinations was to prevent the development of natural measles in susceptible unvaccinated children as well as in the vaccinated subjects. Thus the number of immune subjects in the community was increased by the vaccinations, but as a result there was a reduction in the number of subjects who acquired immunity from natural measles. These opposed results can therefore explain why vaccination may be effective in the community for only a year or two, though vaccination protects the individual for much longer.It is estimated that a continuing vaccination rate of 40 to 50% of the children born each year would be necessary to replace the regular biennial measles epidemics in Britain by a continuous endemic incidence, and might perhaps lead to the disappearance of the disease without a further major epidemic, but that a continuing vaccination rate of 80 to 90% of children born each year would then be necessary to prevent its reintroduction. The long-term control of measles by vaccination will thus probably prove more difficult than for any other infectious disease.     

Modeling control of rabies outbreaks in red fox populations to evaluate culling,vaccination, and vaccination combined with fertility control

A predictive model of spread and control of rabies in red fox (Vulpes vulpes) populations was used to evaluate efficacy of culling, oral vaccination, and oral vaccination and fertility control (V + FC) as rabies control strategies. In addition, effects of season, fox population density, and a delay in starting control were modeled. At fox densities of 0.5 fox families/km2 or greater, a single oral vaccination campaign with bait uptake rates of less than 50% resulted in ineffective rabies control. An uptake rate of at least 80% was required to give a better than 80% chance of eliminating rabies. Vaccination was least effective at controlling rabies if applied 1 or 2 mo before the foxes gave birth. Seasonal timing of poison or V + FC had little effect on efficacy, which was always more successful than the oral vaccination alone. The longer the delay between the simulated start of the rabies infection and the application of a single vaccination campaign, the less successful was the control, particularly at the higher fox densities tested. At a fox density of 0.25 families/km2, all the strategies were equally successful at eliminating rabies. At higher fox densities V + FC was slightly less successful than culling, whereas vaccination-only was considerably less successful. The sole use of vaccination is not considered a viable control method for areas with high fox densities. The model suggests that an area of culling centered on the disease focus, plus an outer ring of vaccine or V + FC, could be the best strategy to control a point-source wildlife rabies outbreak.     

Farmers’ Intentions to Implement Foot and Mouth Disease Control Measures in Ethiopia

The objectives of this study were to explore farmers’ intentions to implement foot and mouth disease (FMD) control in Ethiopia, and to identify perceptions about the disease and its control measures that influence these intentions using the Health Belief Model (HBM) framework. Data were collected using questionnaires from 293 farmers in three different production systems. The influence of perceptions on the intentions to implement control measures were analyzed using binary logistic regression. The effect of socio-demographic and husbandry variables on perceptions that were found to significantly influence the intentions were analyzed using ordinal logistic regression. Almost all farmers (99%) intended to implement FMD vaccination free of charge. The majority of farmers in the pastoral (94%) and market oriented (92%) systems also had the intention to implement vaccination with charge but only 42% of the crop-livestock mixed farmers had the intention to do so. Only 2% of pastoral and 18% of crop-livestock mixed farmers had the intention to implement herd isolation and animal movement restriction continuously. These proportions increased to 11% for pastoral and 50% for crop-livestock mixed farmers when the measure is applied only during an outbreak. The majority of farmers in the market oriented system (>80%) had the intention to implement herd isolation and animal movement restriction measure, both continuously and during an outbreak. Among the HBM perception constructs, perceived barrier was found to be the only significant predictor of the intention to implement vaccination. Perceived susceptibility, perceived benefit and perceived barrier were the significant predictors of the intention for herd isolation and animal movement restriction measure. In turn, the predicting perceived barrier on vaccination control varied significantly with the production system and the age of farmers. The significant HBM perception predictors on herd isolation and animal movement restriction control were significantly influenced only by the type of production system. The results of this study indicate that farmers’ intentions to apply FMD control measures are variable among production systems, an insight which is relevant in the development of future control programs. Promotion programs aimed at increasing farmers’ motivation to participate in FMD control by charged vaccination or animal movement restriction should give attention to the perceived barriers influencing the intentions to apply these measures.     

Comparing badger (Meles meles) management strategies for reducing tuberculosis incidence in cattle

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, continues to be a serious economic problem for the British cattle industry. The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is partly responsible for maintenance of the disease and its transmission to cattle. Previous attempts to manage the disease by culling badgers have been hampered by social perturbation, which in some situations is associated with increases in the cattle herd incidence of bTB. Following the licensing of an injectable vaccine, we consider the relative merits of management strategies to reduce bTB in badgers, and thereby reduce cattle herd incidence. We used an established simulation model of the badger-cattle-TB system and investigated four proposed strategies: business as usual with no badger management, large-scale proactive badger culling, badger vaccination, and culling with a ring of vaccination around it. For ease of comparison with empirical data, model treatments were applied over 150 km(2) and were evaluated over the whole of a 300 km(2) area, comprising the core treatment area and a ring of approximately 2 km. The effects of treatment were evaluated over a 10-year period comprising treatment for five years and the subsequent five year period without treatment. Against a background of existing disease control measures, where 144 cattle herd incidents might be expected over 10 years, badger culling prevented 26 cattle herd incidents while vaccination prevented 16. Culling in the core 150 km(2) plus vaccination in a ring around it prevented about 40 cattle herd breakdowns by partly mitigating the negative effects of culling, although this approach clearly required greater effort. While model outcomes were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimates, the outcomes of culling were sensitive to low rates of land access for culling, low culling efficacy, and the early cessation of a culling strategy, all of which were likely to lead to an overall increase in cattle disease.     

Acute Measles Encephalitis in Partially Vaccinated Adults

Background

The pathogenesis of acute measles encephalitis (AME) is poorly understood. Treatment with immune-modulators is based on theories that post-infectious autoimmune responses cause demyelination. The clinical course and immunological parameters of AME were examined during an outbreak in Vietnam.

Methods and Findings

Fifteen measles IgM-positive patients with confusion or Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score below 13, and thirteen with uncomplicated measles were enrolled from 2008–2010. Standardized clinical exams were performed and blood collected for lymphocyte and measles- and auto-antibody analysis. The median age of AME patients was 21 years, similar to controls. Eleven reported receiving measles vaccination when aged one year. Confusion developed a median of 4 days after rash. Six patients had GCS <8 and four required mechanical ventilation. CSF showed pleocytosis (64%) and proteinorrhachia (71%) but measles virus RNA was not detected. MRI revealed bilateral lesions in the cerebellum and brain stem in some patients. Most received dexamethasone +/− IVIG within 4 days of admission but symptoms persisted for ≥3 weeks in five. The concentration of voltage gated calcium channel-complex-reactive antibodies was 900 pM in one patient, and declined to 609 pM ∼ 3 months later. Measles-reactive IgG antibody avidity was high in AME patients born after vaccine coverage exceeded 50% (∼ 25 years earlier). AME patients had low CD4 (218/µl, p = 0.029) and CD8 (200/µl, p = 0.012) T-cell counts compared to controls.

Conclusion

Young adults presenting with AME in Vietnam reported a history of one prior measles immunization, and those aged <25 years had high measles-reactive IgG avidity indicative of prior vaccination. This suggests that one-dose measles immunization is not sufficient to prevent AME in young adults and reinforces the importance of maintaining high coverage with a two-dose measles immunization schedule. Treatment with corticosteroids and IVIG is common practice, and should be assessed in randomized clinical trials.     

Integer‐valued functional data analysis for measles forecasting

Measles presents a unique and imminent challenge for epidemiologists and public health officials: the disease is highly contagious, yet vaccination rates are declining precipitously in many localities. Consequently, the risk of a measles outbreak continues to rise. To improve preparedness, we study historical measles data both prevaccine and postvaccine, and design new methodology to forecast measles counts with uncertainty quantification. We propose to model the disease counts as an integer‐valued functional time series: measles counts are a function of time‐of‐year and time‐ordered by year. The counts are modeled using a negative‐binomial distribution conditional on a real‐valued latent process, which accounts for the overdispersion observed in the data. The latent process is decomposed using an unknown basis expansion, which is learned from the data, with dynamic basis coefficients. The resulting framework provides enhanced capability to model complex seasonality, which varies dynamically from year‐to‐year, and offers improved multimonth‐ahead point forecasts and substantially tighter forecast intervals (with correct coverage) compared to existing forecasting models. Importantly, the fully Bayesian approach provides well‐calibrated and precise uncertainty quantification for epi‐relevant features, such as the future value and time of the peak measles count in a given year. An R package is available online.     

Drought and child vaccination coverage in 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa: A retrospective analysis of national survey data from 2011 to 2019

BackgroundExtreme weather events, including droughts, are expected to increase in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and are associated with a number of poor health outcomes; however, to the best of our knowledge, the link between drought and childhood vaccination remains unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between drought and vaccination coverage.Methods and findingsWe investigated the association between drought and vaccination coverage using a retrospective analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys data in 22 sub-Saharan African countries among 137,379 children (50.4% male) born from 2011 to 2019. Drought was defined as an established binary variable of annual rainfall less than or equal to the 15th percentile relative to the 29 previous years, using data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data. We evaluated the association between drought at the date of birth and receipt of bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG), diphtheria–pertussis–tetanus (DPT), and polio vaccinations, and the association between drought at 12 months of age and receipt of measles vaccination. We specified logistic regression models with survey fixed effects and standard errors clustered at the enumeration area level, adjusting for child-, mother-, and household-level covariates and estimated marginal risk differences (RDs). The prevalence of drought at date of birth in the sample was 11.8%. Vaccination rates for each vaccination ranged from 70.6% (for 3 doses of the polio vaccine) to 86.0% (for BCG vaccination); however, only 57.6% of children 12 months and older received all recommended doses of BCG, DPT, polio, and measles vaccinations. In adjusted models, drought at date of birth was negatively associated with BCG vaccination (marginal RD = −1.5; 95% CI −2.2, −0.9), DPT vaccination (marginal RD = −1.4; 95% CI −2.2, −0.5), and polio vaccination (marginal RD = −1.3; 95% CI −2.3, −0.3). Drought at 12 months was negatively associated with measles vaccination (marginal RD = −1.9; 95% CI −2.8, −0.9). We found a dose–response relationship between drought and DPT and polio vaccinations, with the strongest associations closest to the timing of drought. Limitations include some heterogeneity in findings across countries.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that drought was associated with lower odds of completion of childhood BCG, DPT, and polio vaccinations. These findings indicate that drought may hinder vaccination coverage, one of the most important interventions to prevent infections among children. This work adds to a growing body of literature suggesting that health programs should consider impacts of severe weather in their programming.

Jason M. Nagata and colleagues investigate the association between drought and child vaccination coverage in 22 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, using Demographic and Health Survey data from 2011 to 2019.     

Application of the GARC Data Logger—a custom-developed data collection device—to capture and monitor mass dog vaccination campaigns in Namibia

Domestic dogs are responsible for 99% of all cases of human rabies and thus, mass dog vaccination has been demonstrated to be the most effective approach towards the elimination of dog-mediated human rabies. Namibia demonstrated the feasibility of this approach by applying government-led strategic rabies vaccination campaigns to reduce both human and dog rabies incidences in the Northern Communal Areas of Namibia since 2016. The lessons learnt using paper-based form for data capturing and management of mass dog vaccination campaign during the pilot and roll out phase of the project (2016–2018) led to the implementation of a simple and accurate data collection tool in the second phase (2019–2022) of the rabies elimination program. In this paper, we describe the implementation of such custom-developed vaccination tracking device, i.e. the Global Alliance for Rabies Control (GARC) Data Logger (GDL), and the integration of the collected data into a website-based rabies surveillance system (Rabies Epidemiological Bulletin—REB) during 2019 and 2020 campaigns. A total of 10,037 dogs and 520 cats were vaccinated during the 2019 campaign and 13,219 dogs and 1,044 cats during the 2020 campaign. The vaccination data were recorded with the GDL and visualized via REB. Subsequent GIS-analysis using gridded population data revealed a suboptimal vaccination coverage in the great majority of grid cells (82%) with a vaccination coverage below 50%. Spatial regression analysis identified the number of schools, estimated human density, and adult dog population were associated with the vaccination performance. However, there was an inverse correlation to human densities. Nonetheless, the use of the GDL improved data capturing and monitoring capacity of the campaign, enabling the Namibian government to improve strategies for the vaccination of at-risk areas towards achieving adequate vaccination coverage which would effectively break the transmission of rabies.     

Inactivation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus by Citric Acid and Sodium Carbonate with Deicers

Three out of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) since 2010 in the Republic of Korea have occurred in the winter. At the freezing temperatures, it was impossible to spray disinfectant on the surfaces of vehicles, roads, and farm premises because the disinfectant would be frozen shortly after discharge and the surfaces of the roads or machines would become slippery in cold weather. In this study, we added chemical deicers (ethylene glycol, propylene glycol, sodium chloride, calcium chloride, ethyl alcohol, and commercial windshield washer fluid) to keep disinfectants (0.2% citric acid and 4% sodium carbonate) from freezing, and we tested their virucidal efficacies under simulated cold temperatures in a tube. The 0.2% citric acid could reduce the virus titer 4 logs at −20°C with all the deicers. On the other hand, 4% sodium carbonate showed little virucidal activity at −20°C within 30 min, although it resisted being frozen with the function of the deicers. In conclusion, for the winter season, we may recommend the use of citric acid (>0.2%) diluted in 30% ethyl alcohol or 25% sodium chloride solvent, depending on its purpose.     

Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R₀) as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed) model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31–50%), 45% (42–48%), and 51% (44–56%) among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.     

The Expected Number of Background Disease Events during Mass Immunization in China

It is critical to distinguish events that are temporarily associated with, but not caused by, vaccination from those caused by vaccination during mass immunization. We performed a literature search in China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Pubmed databases. The number of coincident events was calculated based on its incidence rate and periods after receipt of a dose of hypothesized vaccine. We included background incidences of Guillain-Barré syndrome, anaphylaxis, seizure, sudden adult death syndrome, sudden cardiac death, spontaneous abortion, and preterm labour or delivery. In a cohort of 10 million individuals, 7.71 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome would be expected to occur within six weeks of vaccination as coincident background cases. Even for rare events, a large number of events can be expected in a short period because of the large population targeted for immunization. These findings may encourage health authorities to screen the safety of vaccines against unpredictable pathogens.