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1.
Aim We explored the effects of prevalence, latitudinal range and spatial autocorrelation of species distribution patterns on the accuracy of bioclimate envelope models of butterflies. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods The data of a national butterfly atlas survey (NAFI) carried out in 1991–2003 with a resolution of 10 × 10 km were used in the analyses. Generalized additive models (GAM) were constructed, for each of 98 species, to estimate the probability of occurrence as a function of climate variables. Model performance was measured using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. Observed differences in modelling accuracy among species were related to the species’ geographical attributes using multivariate GAM. Results Accuracies of the climate–butterfly models varied from low to very high (AUC values 0.59–0.99), with a mean of 0.79. The modelling performance was related negatively to the latitudinal range and prevalence, and positively to the spatial autocorrelation of the species distribution. These three factors accounted for 75.2% of the variation in the modelling accuracy. Species at the margin of their range or with low prevalence were better predicted than widespread species, and species with clumped distributions better than scattered dispersed species. Main conclusions The results from this study indicate that species’ geographical attributes highly influence the behaviour and uncertainty of species–climate models, which should be taken into account in biogeographical modelling studies and assessments of climate change impacts. 相似文献
2.
Juha Pöyry Miska Luoto Risto K. Heikkinen Kimmo Saarinen 《Global Ecology and Biogeography》2008,17(3):403-414
Aim To analyse the effects of nine species trait variables on the accuracy of bioclimatic envelope models built for 98 butterfly species. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods Data from a national butterfly atlas monitoring scheme (NAFI) collected from 1991–2003 with a resolution of 10 × 10 km were used in the analyses. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were constructed for 98 butterfly species to predict their occurrence as a function of climatic variables. Modelling accuracy was measured as the cross‐validation area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver–operating characteristic plot. Observed variation in modelling accuracy was related to species traits using multiple GAMs. The effects of phylogenetic relatedness among butterflies were accounted for by using generalized estimation equations. Results The values of the cross‐validation AUC for the 98 species varied between 0.56 and 1.00 with a mean of 0.79. Five species trait variables were included in the GAM that explained 71.4% of the observed variation in modelling accuracy. Four variables remained significant after accounting for phylogenetic relatedness. Species with high mobility and a long flight period were modelled less accurately than species with low mobility and a short flight period. Large species (>50 mm in wing span) were modelled more accurately than small ones. Species inhabiting mires had especially poor models, whereas the models for species inhabiting rocky outcrops, field verges and open fells were more accurate compared with other habitats. Main conclusions These results draw attention to the importance of species traits variables for species–climate impact models. Most importantly, species traits may have a strong impact on the performance of bioclimatic envelope models, and certain trait groups can be inherently difficult to model reliably. These uncertainties should be taken into account by downweighting or excluding species with such traits in studies applying bioclimatic modelling and making assessments of the impacts of climate change. 相似文献
3.
JUHA PÖYRY MISKA LUOTO† RISTO K. HEIKKINEN MIKKO KUUSSAARI KIMMO SAARINEN‡ 《Global Change Biology》2009,15(3):732-743
This study provides a novel systematic comparative analysis of the species characteristics affecting the range margin shifts in butterflies towards higher latitudes, while taking phylogenetic relatedness among species into account. We related observed changes in the northern range margins of 48 butterfly species in Finland between two time periods (1992–1996 and 2000–2004) to 11 species traits. Species with positive records in at least ten 10 km × 10 km grid squares (in the Finnish National Butterfly Recording Scheme, NAFI) in both periods were included in the study. When corrected for range size change, the 48 butterfly species had shifted their range margins northwards on average by 59.9 km between the study periods, with maximum shifts of over 300 km for three species. This rate of range shifts exceeds all previously reported records worldwide. Our findings may be explained by two factors: the study region is situated in higher latitudes than in most previous studies and it focuses on the period of most prominent warming during the last 10–15 years. Several species traits exhibited a significant univariate relationship with the range margin shift according to generalized estimation equations (GEE) taking into account the phylogenetic relatedness among species. Nonthreatened butterflies had on average expanded their ranges strongly northwards (84.5 km), whereas the distributions of threatened species were stationary (−2.1 km). Hierarchical partitioning (HP) analysis indicated that mobile butterflies living in forest edges and using woody plants as their larval hosts exhibited largest range shifts towards the north. Thus, habitat availability and dispersal capacity of butterfly species are likely to determine whether they will be successful in shifting their ranges in response to the warming climate. 相似文献
4.
Aim We explored the importance of climate and land cover in bird species distribution models on multiple spatial scales. In particular, we tested whether the integration of land cover data improves the performance of pure bioclimatic models. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods The data of the bird atlas survey carried out in 1986–89 using a 10 × 10 km uniform grid system in Finland were employed in the analyses. Land cover and climatic variables were compiled using the same grid system. The dependent and explanatory variables were resampled to 20‐km, 40‐km and 80‐km resolutions. Generalized additive models (GAM) were constructed for each of the 88 land bird species studied in order to estimate the probability of occurrence as a function of (1) climate and (2) climate and land cover variables. Model accuracy was measured by a cross‐validation approach using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. Results In general, the accuracies of the 88 bird–climate models were good at all studied resolutions. However, the inclusion of land cover increased the performance of 79 and 78 of the 88 bioclimatic models at 10‐km and 20‐km resolutions, respectively. There was no significant improvement at the 40‐km resolution. In contrast to the finer resolutions, the inclusion of land cover variables decreased the modelling accuracy at 80km resolution. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the determinants of bird species distributions are hierarchically structured: climatic variables are large‐scale determinants, followed by land cover at finer resolutions. The majority of the land bird species in Finland are rather clearly correlated with climate, and bioclimate envelope models can provide useful tools for identifying the relationships between these species and the environment at resolutions ranging from 10 km to 80 km. However, the notable contribution of land cover to the accuracy of bioclimatic models at 10–20‐km resolutions indicates that the integration of climate and land cover information can improve our understanding and model predictions of biogeographical patterns under global change. 相似文献
5.
Luciano Bani Massimiliano Luppi Emanuel Rocchia Olivia Dondina Valerio Orioli 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(3):1289-1305
Climate warming and habitat transformation are widely recognized as worrying threatening factors. Understanding the individual contribution of these two factors to the change of species distribution could be very important in order to effectively counteract the species range contraction, especially in mountains, where alpine species are strongly limited in finding new areas to be colonized at higher elevations. We proposed a method to disentangle the effects of the two drivers of range change for breeding birds in Italian Alps, in the case of co‐occurring climate warming and shrub and forest encroachment. For each species, from 1982 to 2017, we related the estimated yearly elevational distribution of birds to the correspondent overall average of the daily minimum temperatures during the breeding season and the estimated amount of shrubs and forest cover. Using a hierarchical partitioning approach, we assessed the net contribution (i.e., without the shared effect) of each driver. Both temperature and shrub and forest cover showed a positive trend along the time series and resulted the most likely causes of the significant elevational displacement for 21 of the 29 investigated birds. While shrub and forest cover was found to be an important driver of the expansion of forest bird range toward higher elevations, the effect of temperature on favouring the colonization of previously climatically unsuitable forests at higher elevations was not negligible. Shrub and forest expansion resulted the main driver of the range contraction for edge and open habitat species, which suffered a distribution shrinkage at their lower elevational boundary. In light of climate warming, these results highlighted how the net range loss for edge and open habitat species, caused by shrub and forest encroachment consequent to land abandonment, should be counteracted by implementing proper conservation management strategies and promoting sustainable economic activities in rangeland areas. 相似文献
6.
Javier Gutiérrez Illán David Gutiérrez Robert J. Wilson 《Global Ecology and Biogeography》2010,19(2):159-173
Aim Models relating species distributions to climate or habitat are widely used to predict the effects of global change on biodiversity. Most such approaches assume that climate governs coarse‐scale species ranges, whereas habitat limits fine‐scale distributions. We tested the influence of topoclimate and land cover on butterfly distributions and abundance in a mountain range, where climate may vary as markedly at a fine scale as land cover. Location Sierra de Guadarrama (Spain, southern Europe) Methods We sampled the butterfly fauna of 180 locations (89 in 2004, 91 in 2005) in a 10,800 km2 region, and derived generalized linear models (GLMs) for species occurrence and abundance based on topoclimatic (elevation and insolation) or habitat (land cover, geology and hydrology) variables sampled at 100‐m resolution using GIS. Models for each year were tested against independent data from the alternate year, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (distribution) or Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rs) (abundance). Results In independent model tests, 74% of occurrence models achieved AUCs of > 0.7, and 85% of abundance models were significantly related to observed abundance. Topoclimatic models outperformed models based purely on land cover in 72% of occurrence models and 66% of abundance models. Including both types of variables often explained most variation in model calibration, but did not significantly improve model cross‐validation relative to topoclimatic models. Hierarchical partitioning analysis confirmed the overriding effect of topoclimatic factors on species distributions, with the exception of several species for which the importance of land cover was confirmed. Main conclusions Topoclimatic factors may dominate fine‐resolution species distributions in mountain ranges where climate conditions vary markedly over short distances and large areas of natural habitat remain. Climate change is likely to be a key driver of species distributions in such systems and could have important effects on biodiversity. However, continued habitat protection may be vital to facilitate range shifts in response to climate change. 相似文献
7.
Gastone G. Celesia A. Townsend Peterson Julian C. Kerbis Peterhans Thomas P. Gnoske 《African Journal of Ecology》2010,48(1):58-71
Although many studies have documented aspects of lion ecology, they have generally focused on single sites, leaving broader-scaled factors unanalysed. We assessed range-wide effects of eight biotic and 26 abiotic variables on lion distribution and ecology, based on data compiled from published sources on lion population ecology in 27 protected areas in Africa. Lion pride size and composition were independent of lion density; lion density and home range size were inversely related; and lion density was positively related to rainfall, soil nutrients and annual mean temperature, with some interactive effects between rainfall and soil nutrients. Lion demography was associated most strongly with rainfall, temperature and landscape features. Herbivore biomass and lion density were correlated in univariate regression analyses. However, because herbivore biomass was also related to rainfall and temperature, hierarchical partitioning (HP) allowed us to evaluate independent effects of each variable on lion demography revealing that herbivore biomass had negligible independent contributions. HP indicated that climatic parameters explained 62% of overall variance in demographic parameters, whereas landscape features explained only 32%; climatic parameters were fairly balanced between effects of temperature (34%) and rainfall (28%). Prey (herbivore) biomass is important for lion survival, but its effects appear secondary to environmental factors. 相似文献
8.
KEVIN J. COLLIER 《Freshwater Biology》2008,53(3):603-616
1. A spatially‐extensive data set of stream macroinvertebrate communities from 49 northern New Zealand sites sampled over a 10‐year period was analysed to assess relationships between the environment (catchment land‐cover, landscape position and regional‐scale weather patterns), and (i) community persistence and stability based on the constancy of species occurrence (presence–absence) and abundance (per cent composition), respectively and (ii) the temporal variability of various community condition metrics. 2. No significant relationship was evident between community stability or persistence within sites and a gradient of increasing land‐use stress (LUS) based on types of upstream land‐cover, with interannual mean similarities at all sites falling within the standard deviations recorded at long‐term reference sites. In contrast, condition metrics were inversely related to LUS. Land‐use appeared to be a key factor influencing community composition among sites whereas climate influenced stability and persistence within sites. 3. Three response trajectories of community variability to increasing LUS were distinguished based on the coefficient of variation of mean interannual similarities, such that (i) persistence and stability appeared to be more variable at developed sites with low LUS and at sites with high stress relative to the variability experienced naturally, but similar to the natural range at intermediate levels of stress (‘sinusoidal response’); (ii) variability in Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera metrics increased at low‐to‐moderate stress and then accelerated rapidly at highly developed sites (‘stepped‐exponential response’) and (iii) variability in a pollution tolerance metric increased rapidly and then maintained a similar level of variability along the remaining stress gradient (‘plateau response’). 4. The results of this study have implications for biomonitoring approaches that assume high temporal persistence and stability of communities to define site impairment. Misclassifications caused by interannual variability could lead to misinterpretation of site condition, if conclusions are based on single annual surveys. Temporal variability in stability and persistence may help distinguish low levels of impairment where a predominantly healthy fauna experiences increased environmental fluctuations. 相似文献
9.
Chung‐Lim Luk Yves Basset Pitoon Kongnoo Billy C. H. Hau Timothy C. Bonebrake 《Biotropica》2019,51(4):519-528
Monitoring programs for diverse tropical butterfly assemblages are scarce, and temporal diversity patterns in these assemblages are poorly understood. We adopted an additive partitioning approach to determine how temporal butterfly species richness was structured at the levels of days, months, and years in five tropical/subtropical sites across three continents covering up to 9 years of monitoring. We found that observed butterfly richness was not uniformly distributed across temporal extents. Butterfly species composition differed across months and years, potentially accounting for the fact that temporal butterfly species richness contributed a high proportion to total species richness. We further examined how species richness of common and uncommon species (> and <0.5% of total abundance, respectively) were structured across temporal extents. The results showed that the common species relative contribution to total species richness was higher at lower‐temporal levels, whereas uncommon species contributed more at higher‐temporal resolutions. This suggests that long‐term sampling will be more effective in capturing patterns of rare species and the total species pool while lower‐temporal level sampling (e.g., daily or weekly) may be more useful in examining common species demographic patterns. We therefore encourage careful consideration of temporal replication at different extents in developing butterfly monitoring schemes. Long‐term monitoring is essential for improvement in the resolution of species estimation and diversity patterns for tropical ecosystems. Abstract in Chinese is available with online material. 相似文献
10.
Modelling butterfly distribution based on remote sensing data 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
11.
气候图解可以直观反映气象台站基本信息和气温、降水等气象数据,是研究植被与气候关系的有效方式。为便于了解青藏高原不同植被区域气候特征,进一步认识青藏高原植被与气候关系,该文基于1951–1980年与1981–2010年青藏高原地区国家地面气象台站基本信息和各30年平均观测数据,依据《中国植被》所述标准制作每个气象台站的气候图解。论文提供了青藏高原地区主要台站气候图解集,包括两个30年时间段共计205幅图解。研究表明:(1)青藏高原地区气温和降水总体水平偏低,前后30年年平均气温和年降水量整体呈上升趋势;(2)青藏高原地区各气象台站记录值随植被区域不同表现出较大差异。虽然青藏高原西部地区的气象台站数量很少,但该数据集仍涵盖了高原面上的不同植被地带,可有效运用于高原植被与气候关系研究,为展示高原气候环境等提供便利。 相似文献
12.
Risto K. Heikkinen Miska Luoto Raimo Virkkala Richard G. Pearson Jan-Hendrik Körber 《Global Ecology and Biogeography》2007,16(6):754-763
Aim The role of biotic interactions in influencing species distributions at macro‐scales remains poorly understood. Here we test whether predictions of distributions for four boreal owl species at two macro‐scales (10 × 10 km and 40 × 40 km grid resolutions) are improved by incorporating interactions with woodpeckers into climate envelope models. Location Finland, northern Europe. Methods Distribution data for four owl and six woodpecker species, along with data for six land cover and three climatic variables, were collated from 2861 10 × 10 km grid cells. Generalized additive models were calibrated using a 50% random sample of the species data from western Finland, and by repeating this procedure 20 times for each of the four owl species. Models were fitted using three sets of explanatory variables: (1) climate only; (2) climate and land cover; and (3) climate, land cover and two woodpecker interaction variables. Models were evaluated using three approaches: (1) examination of explained deviance; (2) four‐fold cross‐validation using the model calibration data; and (3) comparison of predicted and observed values for independent grid cells in eastern Finland. The model accuracy for approaches (2) and (3) was measured using the area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic plot. Results At 10‐km resolution, inclusion of the distribution of woodpeckers as a predictor variable significantly improved the explanatory power, cross‐validation statistics and the predictive accuracy of the models. Inclusion of land cover led to similar improvements at 10‐km resolution, although these improvements were less apparent at 40‐km resolution for both land cover and biotic interactions. Main conclusions Predictions of species distributions at macro‐scales may be significantly improved by incorporating biotic interactions and land cover variables into models. Our results are important for models used to predict the impacts of climate change, and emphasize the need for comprehensive evaluation of the reliability of species–climate impact models. 相似文献
13.
14.
A unique 113‐year record of numbers of nine migrating butterflies and 20 migrating moths is examined in relation to temperatures on the migration route, to temperatures in England, and to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). This study clearly reveals the strong association between numbers of migrant Lepidoptera and temperatures in France; with higher temperatures associated with increased migrant numbers. The NAO also appears influential with high index years associated with increased numbers. The strong temperature link suggests that Britain and other northern temperate countries can expect to receive larger numbers of migrant Lepidoptera if climate warms as predicted in the 21st century. 相似文献
15.
Satyrinae butterflies (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and grasses (Poaceae) are very diverse and distributed worldwide. Most Satyrinae use grasses as host plants, but the temporal scale of this tight association is not known. Here, we present a phylogenetic study of Satyrinae butterflies and related groups, based on 5.1 kilobases from six gene regions and 238 morphological characters for all major lineages in the 'satyrine clade'. Estimates of divergence times calibrated using a fossil from the Late Oligocene indicate that the species-rich tribe Satyrini diversified to its current 2200 species simultaneously with the expansion and radiation of grasses during the dramatic cooling and drying up of the Earth in the Oligocene. We suggest that the adaptive radiation of grass feeders in Satyrini has been facilitated by the ubiquitousness of grasses since 25Myr ago, which was triggered by a change in global climate. 相似文献
16.
南岳蝶类区系构成及垂直分布 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
通过调查发现 ,南岳共有 1 1 7种蝶类昆虫。区系分析结果表明 ,南岳蝶类以东洋成分为主 ;南岳蝶类的垂直分布从山麓到山顶 ,随着海拔的升高 ,东洋种类递减 ,古北成分逐渐增多 ,尤以海拔 85 0m以上更加明显 ;在海拔 1 2 5 0m以上 ,东洋界种被古北及古北跨区种所替代。 相似文献
17.
据有较详细分布资料的227种蝶类昆虫分析,武夷山蝶类属东洋界范畴;垂直分布研究结果表明,武夷山蝶类从山麓至山顶,随着海拔升高,东洋界种类递减,古北界成分逐渐增多,尤以海拔1100m以上更加明显;在海拔1800m以上东洋界种被古北及古北跨区系种所替代。本文对武夷山蝶类水平分布的南北限和垂直分布的上限及它们的相互关系作了探讨。 相似文献
18.
【背景】青檀绵叶蚜是近几年在山东枣庄市发现危害青檀的新物种,该蚜虫对青檀造成了一定的危害。【方法】2013年对山东和安徽青檀分布地实地调查确定青檀绵叶蚜的分布情况,并结合我国环境变量,采用Maxent生态位模型对青檀绵叶蚜在中国的潜在地理分布进行预测。【结果】青檀绵叶蚜潜在高风险区大面积集中在山东,江苏和北京有零星分布;中风险区大面积集中在河北、河南、安徽和江苏;低风险区集中在山西、四川、江西、辽宁、湖北、湖南和浙江等地区。【结论与意义】青檀绵叶蚜潜在分布区集中在中国中东部地区,这对青檀分布地区预防青檀绵叶蚜发生有重要意义。 相似文献
19.
Heikki Seppä H. J. B. Birks Arvid Odland Anneli Poska Siim Veski 《Journal of Biogeography》2004,31(2):251-267
Aims and location The potential of pollen records in quantitative climate reconstructions has been widely debated but seldom tested. Our aim is to develop a pollen–climate transfer function for northern Europe and test its performance and inference power by numerical cross‐validation with modern climate data. Annual mean temperature (Tann) was assessed as the critical climatic variable because Tann has a distinct south–north gradient (5.5 to ?4.7 °C) in the study region with a corresponding zonal vegetation gradient from the hemiboreal zone in the south to the northern boreal zone in the north. Methods We collected 137 pollen surface samples from small‐ to medium size lakes from southern Estonia to northern Finland. The transfer function for Tann was developed with weighted averaging partial least squares (WA‐PLS) regression. All 102 terrestrial pollen and spore types were included in the calculation sum and all 137 surface samples and all 102 taxa were included in the transfer function. The performance of the WA‐PLS transfer function was evaluated by leave‐one‐out cross‐validation. Results A cross‐validated root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of our model is 0.89 °C and the coefficient of determination (r2) between the observed meteorological Tann values and those predicted by the model in leave‐one‐out cross‐validation is 0.88. The RMSEP as a percentage of the gradient length of Tann is 8.8%. These figures indicate high performance statistics for our transfer function compared with other inference models. This is probably because of standardization of our surface‐sampling and pollen‐analytical procedures, careful selection of the surface sample sites with consideration of the relevant pollen source area, the simple patterns of vegetation zones and climate in the study area, and the mostly natural floristic composition of the forests in northern Europe. However, we also demonstrate the limitations of our model in reliably detecting fine‐scale climatic variability. Main conclusions The study shows the strong influence of Tann on modern pollen composition and demonstrates the potential of pollen data for long‐term climate reconstructions in northern Europe. It also provides evidence against simple interpretations of fine‐scale variations in a single climate reconstruction. In particular, our results highlight the importance of careful study design and implementation in the construction of pollen–climate transfer functions. 相似文献
20.
Hsi-Cheng Ho;Florian Altermatt; 《Journal of Biogeography》2024,51(4):725-738
The spatial-structural patterns of plant-insect interaction networks, particularly their associations with landscape-scale environmental factors, remain poorly understood. We apply data-driven network constructions that integrate biogeographic and trophic interaction knowledge to uncover how Lepidoptera-plant networks vary across environmental gradients in a real-world landscape. 相似文献