Biotic interactions limit species richness in an alpine plant community,especially under experimental warming

The determinants of local species richness in plant communities have been the subject of much debate. Is species richness the result of stochastic events such as dispersal processes, or do local environmental filters sort species into communities according to their ecological niches? Recent studies suggest that these two processes simultaneously limit species richness, although their relative importance may vary in space and time. Understanding the limiting factors for species richness is especially important in light of the ongoing global warming, as new species establish in resident plant communities as a result of climate‐driven migration. We examined the relative importance of dispersal and environmental filtering during seedling recruitment and plant establishment in an alpine plant community subjected to seed addition and long‐term experimental warming. Seed addition increased species richness during the seedling recruitment stage, but this initial increase was cancelled out by a corresponding decrease in species richness during plant establishment, suggesting that environmental filters limit local species richness in the long term. While initial recruitment success of the sown species was related to both abiotic and biotic factors, long‐term establishment was controlled mainly by biotic factors, indicating an increase in the relative importance of biotic interactions once plants have germinated in a microhabitat with favourable abiotic conditions. The relative importance of biotic interactions also seemed to increase with experimental warming, suggesting that increased competition within the resident vegetation may decrease community invasibility as the climate warms.     

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.     

Responses of biotic interactions of dominant and subordinate species to decadal warming and simulated rotational grazing in Tibetan alpine meadow

Warming increases competition among plant species in alpine communities by ameliorating harsh environmental conditions, such as low temperatures. Grazing, as the main human activity, may mitigate the effect of warming, as previously reported. However, it is critical to refine the effects of warming on biotic interactions among species, for example, by taking the competitive ability of species into consideration. Based on a 10-year warming and grazing experiment in a Tibetan alpine meadow, we evaluated interspecific biotic interactions of dominant and subordinate species, using the approach of interspecific spatial associations. Warming significantly increased competition between subordinate and dominant species as well as among subordinate species, but not among dominant species. Moreover, facilitation of dominant-subordinate species also increased under warming. Simulated rotational grazing had similar effects to warming, with increasing interspecific competition. Our results show that, when studying the effects of warming on biotic interactions among species, it is necessary to characterize different species pairs relative to their competitive ability, and that simulated rotational grazing does not mitigate the effects of warming in the long term. Our results also provide evidence that the spatial pattern of species is a critical mechanism in species coexistence.     

Facilitative plant interactions and climate simultaneously drive alpine plant diversity

Interactions among species determine local‐scale diversity, but local interactions are thought to have minor effects at larger scales. However, quantitative comparisons of the importance of biotic interactions relative to other drivers are rarely made at larger scales. Using a data set spanning 78 sites and five continents, we assessed the relative importance of biotic interactions and climate in determining plant diversity in alpine ecosystems dominated by nurse‐plant cushion species. Climate variables related with water balance showed the highest correlation with richness at the global scale. Strikingly, although the effect of cushion species on diversity was lower than that of climate, its contribution was still substantial. In particular, cushion species enhanced species richness more in systems with inherently impoverished local diversity. Nurse species appear to act as a ‘safety net’ sustaining diversity under harsh conditions, demonstrating that climate and species interactions should be integrated when predicting future biodiversity effects of climate change.     

Experimental comparison of competition and facilitation in alpine communities varying in productivity

Question. Competitive and facilitative interactions among plant species in different abiotic environments potentially link productivity, vegetation structure, species composition and functional diversity. We investigated these interactions among four alpine communities along an environmental productivity gradient in a generally harsh climate. We hypothesised that the importance of competition would be higher in more productive sites. Location. Mt. M. Khatipara (43°27′N, 41°41′E, altitude 2750 m), NW Caucasus, Russia. Communities ranged from low‐productivity alpine lichen heath (ALH) and snowbed communities (SBC), to intermediate productivity Festuca grassland (FVG), and high‐productivity Geranium‐Hedysarum meadow (GHM). Methods. We quantified the relative influence of competition and facilitation on community structure by expressing biomass of target species within each natural community proportionally to biomass of the species in a “null community” with experimental release from interspecific competition by removing all other species (for 6 years). An overall index of change in community composition due to interspecific interactions was calculated as the sum of absolute or proportional differences of the component species. Results. Species responses to neighbour removal ranged from positive to neutral. There was no evidence of facilitation among the selected dominant species. As expected, competition was generally most important in the most productive alpine community (GHM). The intermediate position for low‐productivity communities of stressful environments (ALH, SBC) and the last position of intermediately productive FVG were unexpected. Conclusions. Our results appear to support the Fretwell‐Oksanen hypothesis in that competition in communities of intermediate productivity was less intense than in low‐ or high‐productive communities. However, the zero net effect of competition and facilitation in FVG might be the result of abiotic stress due to strong sun exposure and high soil temperatures after neighbour removal. Thus, non‐linear relationships between soil fertility, productivity and different abiotic stresses may also determine the balance between competition and facilitation.     

放牧和模拟增温对藏北高寒草地植物群落特征及生产力的影响

气候变化和放牧活动对草地植物物种多样性和生产力具有重要影响。为探索藏北高寒草地植物物种多样性和生产力对增温、放牧及其交互作用的响应, 于2011年在藏北高原开始建立增温实验平台, 2016年起增设放牧、增温+放牧实验, 连续2年(2016-2017年)观测了植物群落特征、群落组成、生产力和物种多样性。结果表明, 增温和放牧对高寒草地植物高度和净初级生产力具有显著交互作用。在放牧条件下, 增温对植物高度无显著影响; 但在不放牧条件下, 增温却显著增加了植物高度。在放牧条件下, 增温对净初级生产力的影响存在年际差异, 2016年增温对生产力无显著影响, 2017年增温显著降低了植物净初级生产力; 但在不放牧条件下, 增温对植物净初级生产力无显著影响。增温和放牧对高寒草地植物物种丰富度、盖度、重要值及多样性均无显著交互作用。植物盖度在增温和放牧条件下显著降低, 杂类草物种比例显著增加, 但物种多样性均无显著变化。研究表明, 增温和放牧显著改变高寒草地群落结构。未来气候变化条件下, 放牧活动加剧有可能导致高寒草地生产力降低。     

Erosion of community diversity and stability by herbivore removal under warming

Climate change has the potential to influence the persistence of ecological communities by altering their stability properties. One of the major drivers of community stability is species diversity, which is itself expected to be altered by climate change in many systems. The extent to which climatic effects on community stability may be buffered by the influence of species interactions on diversity is, however, poorly understood because of a paucity of studies incorporating interactions between abiotic and biotic factors. Here, I report results of a 10-year field experiment, the past 7 years of which have focused on effects of ongoing warming and herbivore removal on diversity and stability within the plant community, where competitive species interactions are mediated by exploitation through herbivory. Across the entire plant community, stability increased with diversity, but both stability and diversity were reduced by herbivore removal, warming and their interaction. Within the most species-rich functional group in the community, forbs, warming reduced species diversity, and both warming and herbivore removal reduced the strength of the relationship between diversity and stability. Species interactions, such as exploitation, may thus buffer communities against destabilizing influences of climate change, and intact populations of large herbivores, in particular, may prove important in maintaining and promoting plant community diversity and stability in a changing climate.     

Experimental assessment of biotic and abiotic filters driving community composition

Species occurrence in a site can be limited by both the abiotic environment and biotic interactions. These two factors operate in concert, but their relative importance is often unclear. By experimentally introducing seeds or plants into competition‐free gaps or into the intact vegetation, we can disentangle the biotic and abiotic effects on plant establishment. We established a seed‐sowing/transplant experiment in three different meadows. Species were introduced, as seeds and pregrown transplants, into competition‐free gaps and the intact vegetation. They included 12 resident plants from the locality and 18 species typical for different habitats. Last two years, gaps were overgrown with vegetation from surrounding plants and we observed the competitive exclusion of our focal plants. We compared plant survival with the expected occurrence in target locality (Beals index). Many of the species with habitat preferences different from our localities were able to successfully establish from seeds and grow in the focal habitat if competition was removed. They included species typical for much drier conditions. These species were thus not limited by the abiotic conditions, but by competition. Pregrown transplants were less sensitive to competition, when compared to seedlings germinated from seeds. Beals index significantly predicted both species success in gaps and the ability to withstand competition. Survival in a community is dependent on the adaptation to both the abiotic environment and biotic interactions. Statistically significant correlation coefficients of the ratio of seedling survival in vegetation and gaps with Beals index suggest the importance of biotic interactions as a determinant of plant community composition. To disentangle the importance of abiotic and biotic effect on plant establishment, it is important to distinguish between species pool as a set of species typically found in given community type (determined by Beals index) and a set of species for which the abiotic conditions are suitable.     

A meta-analysis of biotic resistance to exotic plant invasions

Biotic resistance describes the ability of resident species in a community to reduce the success of exotic invasions. Although resistance is a well‐accepted phenomenon, less clear are the processes that contribute most to it, and whether those processes are strong enough to completely repel invaders. Current perceptions of strong, competition‐driven biotic resistance stem from classic ecological theory, Elton's formulation of ecological resistance, and the general acceptance of the enemies‐release hypothesis. We conducted a meta‐analysis of the plant invasions literature to quantify the contribution of resident competitors, diversity, herbivores and soil fungal communities to biotic resistance. Results indicated large negative effects of all factors except fungal communities on invader establishment and performance. Contrary to predictions derived from the natural enemies hypothesis, resident herbivores reduced invasion success as effectively as resident competitors. Although biotic resistance significantly reduced the establishment of individual invaders, we found little evidence that species interactions completely repelled invasions. We conclude that ecological interactions rarely enable communities to resist invasion, but instead constrain the abundance of invasive species once they have successfully established.     

高山植物繁殖策略的研究进展

高山地区通常被认为是陆地上最为极端的生境之一,但却拥有许多形态特化的植物和较高的物种多样性。高山植物如何在严酷的环境中实现成功繁殖,这一问题倍受研究者们的关注。本文综合了国内外高山植物在资源分配、花形态对非生物环境因子的响应、动物传粉及其适应机制、果实和种子及克隆繁殖等繁殖策略方面的文献。为应对低温多雨雪的恶劣环境,一些高山植物采取花向日性、花冠闭合及花序保温结构等繁殖策略。高山植物的传粉者类群也发生了改变,主要为蜂类和蝇类。熊蜂(Bombusspp.)传粉的高效性,减少了高山环境对植物传粉造成的不利影响。当传粉者不可得时,植物不仅通过延迟自交和自助自交等机制来提供繁殖保障,还借助克隆繁殖及其他传粉机制(风媒或风虫媒)来维持种群的繁衍。依赖动物传粉的高山植物,可以采取增加繁殖构件的资源分配、加大"广告"投入以及较大的花展示或较长的花寿命来提高传粉者的拜访几率,以及借助泛化的花结构和选择合适的开花时间等策略来提高繁殖成功率。此外,大部分高山植物产生干果且具有持久的种子库,有利于种子的传播以及种子寻找萌发及幼苗生长的最佳外界环境。在今后的研究中,可着重探讨以下几个问题:(1)非生物环境因子对花形态的选择;(2)季节变化与繁殖策略;(3)群落水平上植物与传粉者的关系;(4)高山生态系统对全球变暖的响应。     

What shapes the altitudinal range of a high mountain Mediterranean plant? Recruitment probabilities from ovule to seedling stage

Recruitment is a complex process consisting of sequential stages affected by biotic interactions and abiotic factors. Assessment of these sequential stages and corresponding subprocesses may be useful in identifying the most critical stages. Accordingly, to assess the factors that may determine the altitudinal range limits of the high mountain Mediterranean plant Silene ciliata, a set of demographic stages, from flower production to establishment of 2‐yr‐old plants, and their influence on recruitment probability were examined using a step‐by‐step approach. We integrated florivory, pollination and pre‐dispersal seed predation as pre‐dispersal factors, and seedling emergence and survival as post‐dispersal determinants of recruitment. Three populations were monitored at the southernmost margin of the species along its local altitudinal range. Previous studies suggest that seediness is strongly limited by summer drought especially at the lower boundary of the species, a situation that may worsen under current global warming. Our results showed that recruitment was mainly limited by low seed production in the pre‐dispersal stage and low seedling emergence and survival in the post‐dispersal stage, probably due to environmental harshness in summer. By contrast, biotic factors responsible for propagule loss, such as flower and fruit predation, had a minor effect on the probability of plant recruitment. Although the relative importance of transition probabilities was similar among populations along the altitudinal range, comparatively lower flower production significantly reduced the number of recruited plants at the lowest altitude population. This demographic bottleneck, together with increased competition with other species favoured by climate warming, might collapse population growth and limit persistence at the lower altitudinal range of the species, raising its low local altitudinal edge.     

Alpine cushion plants inhibit the loss of phylogenetic diversity in severe environments

Biotic interactions can shape phylogenetic community structure (PCS). However, we do not know how the asymmetric effects of foundation species on communities extend to effects on PCS. We assessed PCS of alpine plant communities around the world, both within cushion plant foundation species and adjacent open ground, and compared the effects of foundation species and climate on alpha (within‐microsite), beta (between open and cushion) and gamma (open and cushion combined) PCS. In the open, alpha PCS shifted from highly related to distantly related with increasing potential productivity. However, we found no relationship between gamma PCS and climate, due to divergence in phylogenetic composition between cushion and open sub‐communities in severe environments, as demonstrated by increasing phylo‐beta diversity. Thus, foundation species functioned as micro‐refugia by facilitating less stress‐tolerant lineages in severe environments, erasing a global productivity – phylogenetic diversity relationship that would go undetected without accounting for this important biotic interaction.     

The alpine cushion plant Silene acaulis as foundation species: a bug's-eye view to facilitation and microclimate

Alpine ecosystems are important globally with high levels of endemic and rare species. Given that they will be highly impacted by climate change, understanding biotic factors that maintain diversity is critical. Silene acaulis is a common alpine nurse plant shown to positively influence the diversity and abundance of organisms--predominantly other plant species. The hypothesis that cushion or nurse plants in general are important to multiple trophic levels has been proposed but rarely tested. Alpine arthropod diversity is also largely understudied worldwide, and the plant-arthropod interactions reported are mostly negative, that is,. herbivory. Plant and arthropod diversity and abundance were sampled on S. acaulis and at paired adjacent microsites with other non-cushion forming vegetation present on Whistler Mountain, B.C., Canada to examine the relative trophic effects of cushion plants. Plant species richness and abundance but not Simpson's diversity index was higher on cushion microsites relative to other vegetation. Arthropod richness, abundance, and diversity were all higher on cushion microsites relative to other vegetated sites. On a microclimatic scale, S. acaulis ameliorated stressful conditions for plants and invertebrates living inside it, but the highest levels of arthropod diversity were observed on cushions with tall plant growth. Hence, alpine cushion plants can be foundation species not only for other plant species but other trophic levels, and these impacts are expressed through both direct and indirect effects associated with altered environmental conditions and localized productivity. Whilst this case study tests a limited subset of the membership of alpine animal communities, it clearly demonstrates that cushion-forming plant species are an important consideration in understanding resilience to global changes for many organisms in addition to other plants.     

Importance of Seasonality for the Response of a Mesic Temperate Grassland to Increased Precipitation Variability and Warming

Timing of precipitation events within the growing season and the non-uniformity of warming might be decisive for alterations in productivity and community composition, with consequences for ecosystem functioning. The responses of aboveground production, community composition, functional group and species evenness to altered intra-annual precipitation variability and their interactions with winter or summer warming were examined in European, mesic temperate grassland. Increased precipitation variability with an induced spring drought resulted in a 17% reduction in ANPP, and late drought reduced ANPP by 18% compared to regular rainfall patterns throughout the entire growing season. Winter warming increased ANPP by 12%, whereas summer warming showed no significant effect on biomass but decreased species richness. The effects of increased precipitation variability and warming on ANPP were independent of each other. Forbs benefited from high precipitation variability with spring drought events, likely due to reduced competitive pressure by decreasing, water stressed grasses. Increased precipitation variability coinciding with higher summer temperatures led to reduced species evenness and likely promoted the establishment of specialists and drought-tolerant species. Seasonality of climatic factors, here early versus late drought events in the high precipitation variability treatments, was important in driving shifts in community composition but not for decreases in ANPP. Non-uniform warming, here winter versus summer, affected the direction of response of both community composition and ANPP. Variability of resources is affecting ecosystem processes and species interactions. Recognition of seasonality and non-uniformity of climatic factors will improve predictions of plant performance and biotic interactions in response to climate change.     

Extending the stress‐gradient hypothesis – is competition among animals less common in harsh environments?

The role of positive interactions has become widely accepted as a mechanism shaping community dynamics. Most empirical evidence comes from plant communities and sessile marine organisms. However, evidence for the relative role of positive interactions in organizing terrestrial animal communities is more limited, and a general framework that includes positive interactions among animals is lacking. The ‘stress gradient hypothesis’ (SGH) developed by plant ecologists predicts that the balance between positive and negative interactions will vary along gradients of biotic and abiotic stress, with positive interactions being more important in stressful environments. Paralleling the SGH, stress gradients for terrestrial herbivores could be equated to inverse primary productivity gradients, so we would expect positive interactions to prevail in more stressful, low productivity environments. However, this contradicts the typical view of terrestrial animal ecology that low primary productivity systems will foster intense competition for resources among consumers. Here we use alpine herbivores as a case study to test one of the predictions of the SGH in animal communities, namely the prevalence of positive interactions in low productivity environments. We identify potential mechanisms of facilitation and review the limited number of examples of interspecific interactions among alpine herbivores to assess the role of positive and negative interactions in structuring their communities. A meta‐analysis showed no clear trend in the strength and direction of interactions among alpine herbivores. Although studies were biased towards reporting significant negative inter actions, we found no evidence of competition dominating in harsh environments. Thus, our results only partially support the SGH, but directly challenge the dominant view among animal ecologists. Clearly, a sound theoretical framework is needed to include competition, positive and neutral interactions as potential mechanisms determining the structure of animal communities under differing environmental conditions, and the stress‐gradient hypothesis can provide a solid starting point.     

The roles of stochasticity and biotic interactions in the spatial patterning of plant species in alpine communities

Questions

Plant community composition can be influenced by multiple biotic, abiotic, and stochastic factors acting on the local species pool to determine their establishment success and abundance and subsequently the diversity of the community. We asked if the influences of biotic interactions on the composition of plant species in communities, as indicated by patterns of plant species spatial associations (independent, positive or negative), vary across a productivity gradient within a single ecosystem type. Do dominant species of communities show spatial patterning suggestive of competitive interactions with interspecific neighbors? Do species that span multiple community types exhibit the same heterospecific interactions with neighbours in each community?

Location

Three alpine communities in the southern Rocky Mountains.

Methods

We measured the occurrence of species in a 1‐cm spatial grid within 2 m × 2 m plots to determine the spatial patterns of species pairs in the three communities. A null model of independent species spatial arrangements was used to determine whether species pairs were positively, negatively or independently associated, and how these patterns differed among the communities across the gradient of resource supply and environmental stress.

Results

Positive associations, indicative of facilitation between species, were most common in the most resource‐poor and least productive community. However negative associations, suggestive of competitive interactions among species, were not more common in the two more resource‐rich, productive communities. The dominant species of these communities did exhibit higher negative than positive associations with neighbours relative to positive patterning. Independent interspecific patterning was equally common relative to positive and negative patterns in all communities. Species that previously were shown to either facilitate other species or compete with neighbours exhibited spatial patterning consistent with the earlier experimental work.

Conclusions

A large number of species exhibit a lack of net biotic interactions, and stochastic factors appear to be as important as competition and facilitation in shaping the structure of the three alpine plant communities we studied.

     

Community diversity outweighs effect of warming on plant colonization

Abiotic environmental change, local species extinctions and colonization of new species often co‐occur. Whether species colonization is driven by changes in abiotic conditions or reduced biotic resistance will affect community functional composition and ecosystem management. We use a grassland experiment to disentangle effects of climate warming and community diversity on plant species colonization. Community diversity had dramatic impacts on the biomass, richness and traits of plant colonists. Three times as many species colonized the monocultures than the high diversity 17 species communities (~30 vs. 10 species), and colonists collectively produced 10 times as much biomass in the monocultures than the high diversity communities (~30 vs. 3 g/m²). Colonists with resource‐acquisitive strategies (high specific leaf area, light seeds, short heights) accrued more biomass in low diversity communities, whereas species with conservative strategies accrued most biomass in high diversity communities. Communities with higher biomass of resident C4 grasses were more resistant to colonization by legume, nonlegume forb and C3 grass colonists, but not by C4 grass colonists. Compared with effects of diversity, 6 years of 3°C‐above‐ambient temperatures had little impact on plant colonization. Warmed subplots had ~3 fewer colonist species than ambient subplots and selected for heavier seeded colonists. They also showed diversity‐dependent changes in biomass of C3 grass colonists, which decreased under low diversity and increased under high diversity. Our findings suggest that species colonization is more strongly affected by biotic resistance from residents than 3°C of climate warming. If these results were extended to invasive species management, preserving community diversity should help limit plant invasion, even under climate warming.     

Influence of microclimate and species interactions on the composition of plant and invertebrate communities in alpine northern Norway

We assessed the effects of both biotic processes and abiotic factors on the community composition of vascular plant species and invertebrates at a site in northern Norway. Plant species were assigned to functional (woody versus herbaceous) and biogeographic (boreal versus alpine) groups. Invertebrate species were classified as either herbivore or predator. When species interactions and effects of the abiotic environment were partitioned, boreal species appeared to influence the distribution of alpine species and woody species the distribution of herbaceous species. Analysis of partial correlations indicated that facilitation was the dominant mode of interaction between the two pairs of plant groups. Among abiotic factors, the thermal environment probably influenced all components of the plant and invertebrate communities, except for predatory invertebrates, and wind appeared important in determining the composition of woody and alpine components of the plant community but not the herbaceous component. The composition of the boreal component of the plant community apparently influenced the composition of all invertebrate communities, except for predatory invertebrates. The composition of the woody component of the plant community influenced the composition of both herbivore and predator communities. The alpine plant-community composition influenced predatory invertebrate community composition. Woody plant community composition influenced the composition of both herbivore and predator communities. Our analytic approach, based on two kinds of structural equation models (d-separation and path analysis), provides a useful method for identifying the biotic as well as abiotic factors that influence community structure.     

Community structure and composition in response to climate change in a temperate steppe

Climate change would have profound influences on community structure and composition, and subsequently has impacts on ecosystem functioning and feedback to climate change. A field experiment with increased temperature and precipitation was conducted to examine effects of experimental warming, increased precipitation and their interactions on community structure and composition in a temperate steppe in northern China since April 2005. Increased precipitation significantly stimulated species richness and coverage of plant community. In contrast, experimental warming markedly reduced species richness of grasses and community coverage. Species richness was positively dependent upon soil moisture (SM) across all treatments and years. Redundancy analysis (RDA) illustrated that SM dominated the response of community composition to climate change at the individual level, suggesting indirect effects of climate change on plant community composition via altering water availability. In addition, species interaction also mediated the responses of functional group coverage to increased precipitation and temperature. Our observations revealed that both abiotic (soil water availability) and biotic (interspecific interactions) factors play important roles in regulating plant community structure and composition in response to climate change in the semiarid steppe. Therefore these factors should be incorporated in model predicting terrestrial vegetation dynamics under climate change.     

Exploring the compass of potential changes induced by climate warming in plant communities

New models are required to predict the impacts of future climate change on biodiversity. A move must be made away from individual models of single species toward approaches with synergistically interacting species. The focus should be on indirect effects due to biotic interactions. Here we propose a new parsimonious approach to simulate direct and indirect effects of global warming on plant communities. The methodology consists of five steps: a) field survey of species abundances, b) quantitative assessment of species co-occurrences, c) assignment of a theorised effect of increased temperature on each species, d) creation of a community model to project community dynamics, and e) exploration of the potential range of temperature change effects on plant communities.We explored the possible climate-driven dynamics in an alpine vegetation community and gained insights into the role of biotic interactions as determinants of plant species response to climate change at local scale. The study area was the uppermost portion of Alpe delle Tre Potenze (Northern Apennines, Italy) from 1500 m up to the summit at 1940 m.Our work shows that: 1) unexpected climate-driven dynamics can emerge, 2) interactive communities with indirect effects among species can overcome direct effects induced by global warming; 3) if just one or few species react to global warming the new community configuration could be unexpected and counter-intuitive; 4) timing of species reactions to global warming is an important driver of community dynamics; 5) using simulation models with a limited amount of data in input, it is possible to explore the full range of potential changes in plant communities induced by climate warming.