Systematic underestimation of association between serum cholesterol concentration and ischaemic heart disease in observational studies: data from the BUPA study.

OBJECTIVE--To estimate the size of the association between serum concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol and mortality from ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN--Prospective study of total serum cholesterol concentration and mortality from ischaemic heart disease in 21,515 men (538 deaths) and study of total cholesterol concentration measured on two occasions an average of three years apart in 5696 men in whom low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration was also measured on the second occasion. SUBJECTS--Men who attended the medical centre of the British United Provident Association (BUPA) in London between 1975 and 1982. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--The difference in mortality from ischaemic heart disease for a 0.6 mmol/l difference in concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol after adjustment for, firstly, regression dilution bias, which arises from the random fluctuation of serum cholesterol concentration in people over time, and, secondly, the surrogate dilution effect, which arises because differences in total cholesterol concentration between people reflect smaller differences in low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration. RESULTS--The observed difference in mortality from ischaemic heart disease associated with a difference of 0.6 mmol/l in total serum cholesterol concentration was 17% but increased to 24% after correction for the regression dilution bias and to 27% (95% confidence interval 21% to 33%) after adjustment for both sources of underestimation, which provides an estimate of the difference in mortality for a true difference of 0.6 mmol/l in low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration. The association was greater at younger ages. The estimated decrease in mortality from all causes was 6% before and 10% (1% to 17%) after adjustment for the two sources of underestimation. There was no excess mortality from any cause associated with low cholesterol concentration. CONCLUSIONS--The association between serum cholesterol concentration and ischaemic heart disease is materially stronger than directly inferred from prospective studies. This has important implications for the health benefit of achieving low cholesterol concentrations.     

Plasma cholesterol concentration and death from coronary heart disease: 10 year results of the Whitehall study.

Ten year mortality from coronary heart disease in 17,718 middle aged men was related to their initial plasma cholesterol concentrations. The relative risk of death from coronary heart disease declined with age, but the absolute excess risk did not. The risk gradient was continuous over the whole range of cholesterol concentrations, the lowest mortality being among men with concentrations below the lowest decile. It seems that, as with blood pressure, the average cholesterol concentration in the blood pressure, the average cholesterol concentration in the population is too high: lowest concentrations are prognostically the best. A quarter of all deaths from coronary heart disease related to cholesterol occurred among men with concentrations above the top decile, but 55% occurred among men with concentrations in the middle three fifths of the distribution; this figure of 55% could be reduced only by a policy aimed at lowering concentrations in the whole population.     

Why Londoners have low death rates from ischaemic heart disease and stroke.

OBJECTIVE--To explain the low death rates from cardiovascular disease in London. SETTING--London and the other counties of England and Wales. SUBJECTS--Women living in London during 1901-10 and people in London dying during 1968-78. RESULTS--At the beginning of the twentieth century young women aged 15-34 in London had remarkably low death rates, largely because of low rates for tuberculosis and other infectious diseases and low mortality during childbirth. Their low death rates contrasted with the high rates in girls under 15 years. CONCLUSIONS--Large numbers of young women had migrated into London from agricultural counties in southern England and went into domestic service, where the diet was usually very good. Recent findings suggest that a mother''s nutrition and health has a major effect on the risk of cardiovascular disease in the next generation. The low cardiovascular mortality in London is consistent with this, and contrasts with the high mortality from other common diseases.     

Risk of death from cancer and ischaemic heart disease in meat and non-meat eaters.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate the health consequences of a vegetarian diet by examining the 12 year mortality of non-meat eaters and meat eating controls. DESIGN--Prospective observational study in which members of the non-meat eating cohort were asked to nominate friends or relatives as controls. SETTING--United Kingdom. SUBJECTS--6115 non-meat eaters identified through the Vegetarian Society of the United Kingdom and the news media (mean (SD) age 38.7 (16.8) years) and 5015 controls who were meat eaters (39.3 (15.4) years). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Standardised mortality ratios for cancer, ischaemic heart disease, and total mortality in the two cohorts and death rate ratio in the non-meat eaters compared with meat eaters after adjustment for potentially confounding variables. RESULTS--Standardised mortality ratios (taking the value among the general population as 100) for ischaemic heart disease were 51 (95% confidence interval 38 to 66) for meat eaters and 28 (20 to 38) for non-meat eaters (P < 0.01). Values for all cancers were 80 (64 to 98) and 50 (39 to 62) for meat eaters and non-meat eaters respectively. After adjustment for the effects of smoking, body mass index, and socioeconomic status death rate ratios in non-meat eaters compared with meat eaters were 0.72 (0.47 to 1.10) for ischaemic heart disease and 0.61 (0.44 to 0.84) for all cancers. CONCLUSIONS--The reduced mortality from cancer among those not eating meat is not explained by lifestyle related risk factors, which have a low prevalence among vegetarians. No firm conclusion can be made about deaths from ischaemic heart disease. These data do not justify advice to exclude meat from the diet since there are several attributes of a vegetarian diet apart from not eating meat which might reduce the risk.     

Decline in rate of death from ischaemic heart disease in the United Kingdom.

The rates of death from ischaemic heart disease in the United Kingdom in the years after 1968 were studied to establish whether any general trend had occurred. A decline in the rates began after 1973-4, was greatest in those aged 35-44 years, and occurred among both men and women and in each of the regions of England and in Wales and Scotland. Total dietary fat intake had started to fall about five years earlier, and this may provide part of the explanation. Changes in smoking habits also occurred but were more difficult to relate to the pattern of change in the death rates. If a general decline in ischaemic heart disease has begun in the United Kingdom a case may be made for close monitoring of changes in lifestyle and medical practice in different demographic groups to try to find the explanation.     

Change in alcohol consumption and risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the association between alcohol consumption and mortality from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease with a focus on differentiating between long term abstainers and more recent non-drinkers. DESIGN--Cohort study of changes in alcohol consumption from 1965 to 1974 and mortality from all causes and ischaemic heart disease during 1974-84. SETTING--Population based study of adult residents of Alameda County, California. SUBJECTS--2225 women and 1845 men aged 35 and over in 1965. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Alcohol consumption in 1964 and 1974 and mortality from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease during 1974-84. RESULTS--There was a significantly higher risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease in women who gave up drinking between 1965 and 1974 than in women who continued to drink (relative risk 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.66, and 2.75, 1.44 to 5.23, for all causes and ischaemic heart disease respectively). A significant increase in risk was not seen in men who gave up drinking (1.32, 0.87 to 2.01, and 0.95, 0.41 to 2.20, respectively). Among men, long term abstainers compared with drinkers were at increased risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease, though the associations were not significant (1.40, 0.98 to 2.00, and 1.40, 0.76 to 2.58, for all causes and ischaemic heart disease respectively). CONCLUSION--Some of the increased risk of death from all causes and from ischaemic heart disease associated with not drinking in women seems to be accounted for by higher risks among those who gave up drinking. Men who are long term abstainers may also be at an increased risk of death. The heterogeneity of the non-drinking group should be considered when comparisons are made with drinkers.     

Concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol,triglycerides, and total cholesterol in ischaemic heart disease.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the roles of serum concentrations of total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides in predicting major ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN--Men recruited for the British regional heart study followed up for a mean of 7.5 years. SETTING--General practices in 24 British towns. PATIENTS--7735 Middle aged men. END POINT--Predictive value of serum concentrations of lipids. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--At initial screening serum concentrations of total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides were determined from non-fasting blood samples. Altogether 443 major ischaemic heart disease events (fatal and non-fatal) occurred during the study. Men in the highest fifth of the distribution of total cholesterol concentration (greater than or equal to 7.2 mmol/l) had 3.5 times the risk of ischaemic heart disease than did men in the lowest fifth (less than 5.5 mmol/l) after adjustment for high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration and other risk factors. Men in the lowest fifth of high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration (less than 0.93 mmol/l) had 2.0 times the risk of men in the highest fifth (greater than or equal to 1.33 mmol/l) after adjustment for total cholesterol concentration and other risk factors. Men in the highest fifth of triglyceride concentration (greater than or equal to 2.8 mmol/l) had only 1.3 times the risk of those in the lowest fifth (less than 1.08 mmol/l) after adjustment for total cholesterol concentration and other risk factors; additional adjustment for high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration made the association with ischaemic heart disease disappear. CONCLUSIONS--Serum concentration of total cholesterol is the most important single blood lipid risk factor for ischaemic heart disease in men. High density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration is less important, and triglyceride concentrations do not have predictive importance once other risk factors have been taken into account.     

Alcohol consumption,serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration,and risk of ischaemic heart disease: six year follow up in the Copenhagen male study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the interplay between use of alcohol, concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and risk of ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN: Prospective study with controlling for several relevant confounders, including concentrations of other lipid fractions. SETTING: Copenhagen male study, Denmark. SUBJECTS: 2826 men aged 53-74 years without overt ischaemic heart disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of ischaemic heart disease during a six year follow up period. RESULTS: 172 men (6.1%) had a first ischaemic heart disease event. There was an overall inverse association between alcohol intake and risk of ischaemic heart disease. The association was highly dependent on concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. In men with a high concentration (> or = 5.25 mmol/l) cumulative incidence rates of ischaemic heart disease were 16.4% for abstainers, 8.7% for those who drank 1-21 beverages a week, and 4.4% for those who drank 22 or more beverages a week. With abstainers as reference and after adjustment for confounders, corresponding relative risks (95% confidence interval) were 0.4 (0.2 to 1.0; P<0.05) and 0.2 (0.1 to 0.8; P<0.01). In men with a concentration <3.63 mmol/l use of alcohol was not associated with risk. The attributable risk (95% confidence interval) of ischaemic heart disease among men with concentrations > or = 3.63 mmol/l who abstained from drinking alcohol was 43% (10% to 64%). CONCLUSIONS: In middle aged and elderly men the inverse association between alcohol consumption and risk of ischaemic heart disease is highly dependent on the concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. These results support the suggestion that use of alcohol may in part explain the French paradox.     

Travel and ischaemic heart disease.

The hypothesis that travel precipitates acute ischaemic heart disease (IHD) was tested in a case-control study of holidaymakers admitted to hospital in Great Yarmouth. The distance that patients with IHD had travelled to reach Great Yarmouth was on average greater than that travelled by patients with other diseases. I conclude that the greater distances travelled by patients with IHD may have helped to precipitate the attack.     

Relation of serum calcium concentration to metabolic risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

Data from a health screening survey with over 18,000 adult participants were used to determine the relations between serum calcium concentration and the cardiovascular risk factors hypertension, hyperglycaemia, and hyperlipidaemia. Blood pressure and serum glucose and cholesterol concentrations were all positively related to each other independent of age, sex, kidney function, and obesity. Similar relations between the risk factors were found in subjects with hypertension or hyperglycaemia independent of the degree of overweight. These results suggested that there might be a metabolic syndrome of cardiovascular risk factors. Serum calcium concentration was positively related to systolic and diastolic blood pressures and serum glucose and cholesterol concentrations. Thus a common feature in the syndrome is an increased serum calcium concentration. The relations between serum calcium concentrations and the cardiovascular risk factors were not limited to the upper parts of the distribution, being seen over a wide range. Changes in calcium metabolism seem to be related to a metabolic syndrome of hypertension, impaired glucose tolerance, and hyperlipidaemia.     

Bottle feeding and the sudden infant death syndrome.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether the risk of the sudden infant death syndrome is increased in bottle fed babies. DESIGN--Population based case-control study matching for age and time. SUBJECTS--All babies aged 1 week to 1 year dying of sudden infant death syndrome during November 1987 to April 1989 or February 1990 to June 1991 and two live controls. SETTING--Avon and north Somerset. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Breast or bottle feeding, sleeping position, maternal smoking, parental employment, and length of gestation. RESULTS--Compared with being fully breast fed, the crude odds ratio for sudden infant death in fully bottle fed babies was 3.1 and for mixed breast and bottle fed babies 1.5. These odds ratios fell to 1.8 (95% confidence interval 0.7 to 4.8) and 1.2 (0.5 to 2.7) respectively after maternal smoking, parental employment, preterm gestation, and sleeping position had been adjusted for. Sleeping position partly masked the effect of being bottle fed on sudden infant death as breast fed babies were more likely to have slept prone than bottle fed babies. CONCLUSIONS--Bottle feeding is not a significant independent risk factor for the sudden infant death syndrome. Patterns of maternal smoking, preterm gestation, and parental employment status account for most of the apparent association with bottle feeding.     

Phobic anxiety and ischaemic heart disease.

A prospective study of the relation between scores on the six subscales of the Crown-Crisp experiential index and subsequent incidence of ischaemic heart disease was undertaken among participants in the Northwick Park heart study. Results from 1457 white men aged 40-64 at recruitment showed that phobic anxiety was strongly related to subsequent major ischaemic heart disease (fatal and non-fatal events combined) when other associated variables were taken into account. The phobic anxiety score alone remained significantly associated with ischaemic heart disease when scores on all the subscales were included in the analysis. Phobic anxiety seemed to be particularly associated with fatal ischaemic heart disease but was not associated with deaths from other causes and was no higher in those with a pre-existing myocardial infarction at recruitment than in those without. There was a consistent increase in risk of fatal ischaemic heart disease with score on the phobic anxiety subscale. The relative risk for those whose score was 5 and above was 3.77 (95% confidence interval 1.64 to 8.64) compared with those whose score was 0 or 1. The 49 participants with evidence of myocardial infarction at recruitment had higher scores on the subscales for free floating anxiety and functional somatic complaint. The Crown-Crisp experiential index is simple to fill out and acceptable to patients. When the results are combined with other known risk factors it may be of use in defining high risk subjects and in planning strategies for prevention.     

Relation of birth weight and childhood respiratory infection to adult lung function and death from chronic obstructive airways disease.

OBJECTIVE--To examine whether birth weight, infant weight, and childhood respiratory infection are associated with adult lung function and death from chronic obstructive airways disease. DESIGN--Follow up study of men born during 1911-30 whose birth weights, weights at 1 year, and childhood illnesses were recorded at the time by health visitors. SETTING--Hertfordshire, England. SUBJECTS--5718 men born in the county during 1911-30 and a subgroup of 825 men born in the county during 1920-30 and still living there. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Death from chronic obstructive airways disease, mean forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC), and respiratory symptoms. RESULTS--55 men died of chronic obstructive airways disease. Death rates fell with increasing birth weight and weight at 1 year. Mean FEV1 at age 59 to 70 years, adjusted for height and age, rose by 0.06 litre (95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.09) with each pound (450 g) increase in birth weight, independently of smoking habit and social class. Bronchitis or pneumonia in infancy was associated with a 0.17 litre (0.02 to 0.32) reduction in adult FEV1 and with an increased odds ratio of wheezing and persistent sputum production in adult life independently of birth weight, smoking habit, and social class. Whooping cough in infancy was associated with a 0.22 litre (0.02 to 0.42) reduction in adult FEV1. CONCLUSIONS--Lower birth weight was associated with worse adult lung function. Intrauterine influences which retard fetal weight gain may irrecoverably constrain the growth of the airways. Bronchitis, pneumonia, or whooping cough in infancy further reduced adult lung function. They also retarded infant weight gain. Consistent with this, death from chronic obstructive airways disease in adult life was associated with lower birth weight and weight at 1 year. Promoting lung growth in fetuses and infants and reducing the incidence of lower respiratory tract infection in infancy may reduce the incidence of chronic obstructive airways disease in the next generation.