Genetic Loads in Heterogeneous Environments

A model of population structure in heterogeneous environments is described with attention focused on genetic variation at a single locus. The existence of equilibria at which there is no genetic load is examined.--The absolute fitness of any genotype is regarded as a function of location in the niche space and the population density at that location. It is assumed that each organism chooses to live in that habitat in which it is most fit ("optimal habitat selection").--Equilibria at which there is no segregation load ("loadless equilibria") may exist. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of such equilibria are very weak. If there is a sufficient amount of dominance or area in which the alleles are selectively neutral, then there exist equilibria without segregational loads. In the N2p phase plane defined by population size, N, and gene frequency, p, these equilibria generally consist of a line segment which is parallel to the p axis. These equilibria are frequently stable.     

Analysis of tumour-immune evasion with chemo-immuno therapeutic treatment with quadratic optimal control

A simple mathematical model for the growth of tumour with discrete time delay in the immune system is considered. The dynamical behaviour of our system by analysing the existence and stability of our system at various equilibria is discussed elaborately. We set up an optimal control problem relative to the model so as to minimize the number of tumour cells and the chemo-immunotherapeutic drug administration. Sensitivity analysis of tumour model reveals that parameter value has a major impact on the model dynamics. We numerically illustrate how does these delay can change the stability region of the immune-control equilibrium and display the different impacts to the control of tumour. Finally, epidemiological implications of our analytical findings are addressed critically.     

On a drug-resistant malaria model with susceptible individuals without access to basic amenities

In this paper, a deterministic malaria transmission model in the presence of a drug-resistant strain is investigated. The model is studied using stability theory of differential equations, optimal control, and computer simulation. The threshold condition for disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable and can only be achieved in the absence of a drug-resistant strain in the population. The existence of multiple endemic equilibria is also established. Both the Sensitivity Index (SI) of the model parameters and the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for all possible combinations of the disease-control measures are determined. Our results revealed among others that the most cost-effective strategy for drug-resistant malaria control is the combination of the provision of basic amenities (such as access to clean water, electricity, good roads, health care, and education) and treatment of infective individuals. Therefore, more efforts from policy-makers on the provisions of basic amenities and treatment of infectives would go a long way to combat the malaria epidemic.     

关于一类害虫治理流行病Filippov模型的动力学性质分析

首先,在不采取综合害虫治理策略的情况下,本文给出一个具有流行病的害虫模型的正平衡点的存在条件以及无病平衡点和正平衡点的全局稳定性条件;其次,把易感害虫种群数量作为害虫综合控制的指标,利用阈值控制策略建立了一个害虫治理流行病Filippov模型,并系统地对该模型的动力学性质进行分析,其中包括模型的滑线区域,真、假平衡点及伪平衡点的存在性和稳定性．     

Analysis of recruitment and industrial human resources management for optimal productivity in the presence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic

The aim of this paper is to analyze the recruitment effects of susceptible and infected individuals in order to assess the productivity of an organizational labor force in the presence of HIV/AIDS with preventive and HAART treatment measures in enhancing the workforce output. We consider constant controls as well as time-dependent controls. In the constant control case, we calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The model is found to exhibit backward and Hopf bifurcations, implying that for the disease to be eradicated, the basic reproductive number must be below a critical value of less than one. We also investigate, by calculating sensitivity indices, the sensitivity of the basic reproductive number to the model’s parameters. In the time-dependent control case, we use Pontryagin’s maximum principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results. The cost-effectiveness analysis results show that optimal efforts on recruitment (HIV screening of applicants, etc.) is not the most cost-effective strategy to enhance productivity in the organizational labor force. Hence, to enhance employees’ productivity, effective education programs and strict adherence to preventive measures should be promoted.     

Optimal control analysis of a malaria disease transmission model that includes treatment and vaccination with waning immunity

We derive and analyse a deterministic model for the transmission of malaria disease with mass action form of infection. Firstly, we calculate the basic reproduction number, R(0), and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The system is found to exhibit backward bifurcation. The implication of this occurrence is that the classical epidemiological requirement for effective eradication of malaria, R(0)<1, is no longer sufficient, even though necessary. Secondly, by using optimal control theory we derive the conditions under which it is optimal to eradicate the disease and examine the impact of a possible combined vaccination and treatment strategy on the disease transmission. When eradication is impossible, we derive the necessary conditions for optimal control of the disease using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. The results obtained from the numerical simulations of the model show that a possible vaccination combined with effective treatment regime would reduce the spread of the disease appreciably.     

Global Hopf bifurcation analysis of an susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay

An susceptible-infective-removed epidemic model incorporating media coverage with time delay is proposed. The stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium is studied. And then, the conditions which guarantee the existence of local Hopf bifurcation are given. Furthermore, we show that the local Hopf bifurcation implies the global Hopf bifurcation after the second critical value of delay. The obtained results show that the time delay in media coverage can not affect the stability of the disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. However, the time delay affects the stability of the endemic equilibrium and produces limit cycle oscillations while the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Finally, some examples for numerical simulations are included to support the theoretical prediction.     

具有经济临界值的非光滑捕食与被捕食系统的全局稳定性分析(英文)

只要害虫种群数量在经济临界值水平之上就连续的实施综合控制策略,基于此本文提出了具有经济临界值的非光滑捕食与被捕食系统.我们给出了系统真平衡态、假平衡态和伪平衡态的存在性和稳定性,以及这些平衡态全局稳定或系统存在全局吸引子的条件,同时借助数值方法验证了所得结论.得到的主要结果说明通过采用临界控制策略能让害虫稳定在一个给定的临界值水平上,而达到害虫控制的目的.     

The dynamics of two-species allelopathic competition with optimal harvesting

This paper analyses a bionomic model of two competitive species in the presence of toxicity with different harvesting efforts. An interesting dynamics in the first quadrant is analysed and two saddle-node bifurcations are detected for different bifurcation parameters. It is noted that under certain parametric restrictions, the model has a unique positive equilibrium point that is globally asymptotically stable whenever it is locally stable. It is also noted that the model can have zero, one or two feasible equilibria appearing through saddle-node bifurcations. The non-existence of a limit cycle in the interior of the first quadrant is also discussed using the Poincare–Dulac criteria. The saddle-node bifurcations are studied using Sotomayor's theorem. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate the analytical findings. The conditions for the existence of bionomic equilibria are discussed and an optimal harvesting policy is derived using Pontryagin's maximum principle.     

Efficient spatial coverage by a robot swarm based on an ant foraging model and the Lévy distribution

This work proposes a control law for efficient area coverage and pop-up threat detection by a robot swarm inspired by the dynamical behavior of ant colonies foraging for food. In the first part, performance metrics that evaluate area coverage in terms of characteristics such as rate, completeness and frequency of coverage are developed. Next, the Keller–Segel model for chemotaxis is adapted to develop a virtual-pheromone-based method of area coverage. Sensitivity analyses with respect to the model parameters such as rate of pheromone diffusion, rate of pheromone evaporation, and white noise intensity then identify and establish noise intensity as the most influential parameter in the context of efficient area coverage and establish trends between these different parameters which can be generalized to other pheromone-based systems. In addition, the analyses yield optimal values for the model parameters with respect to the proposed performance metrics. A finite resolution of model parameter values were tested to determine the optimal one. In the second part of the work, the control framework is expanded to investigate the efficacy of non-Brownian search strategies characterized by Lévy flight, a non-Brownian stochastic process which takes variable path lengths from a power-law distribution. It is shown that a control law that incorporates a combination of gradient following and Lévy flight provides superior area coverage and pop-up threat detection by the swarm. The results highlight both the potential benefits of robot swarm design inspired by social insect behavior as well as the interesting possibilities suggested by considerations of non-Brownian noise.     

The dynamics of two-species allelopathic competition with optimal harvesting

This paper analyses a bionomic model of two competitive species in the presence of toxicity with different harvesting efforts. An interesting dynamics in the first quadrant is analysed and two saddle-node bifurcations are detected for different bifurcation parameters. It is noted that under certain parametric restrictions, the model has a unique positive equilibrium point that is globally asymptotically stable whenever it is locally stable. It is also noted that the model can have zero, one or two feasible equilibria appearing through saddle-node bifurcations. The non-existence of a limit cycle in the interior of the first quadrant is also discussed using the Poincare-Dulac criteria. The saddle-node bifurcations are studied using Sotomayor's theorem. Numerical simulations are carried out to validate the analytical findings. The conditions for the existence of bionomic equilibria are discussed and an optimal harvesting policy is derived using Pontryagin's maximum principle.     

Imitation dynamics of vaccine decision-making behaviours based on the game theory

Based on game theory, we propose an age-structured model to investigate the imitation dynamics of vaccine uptake. We first obtain the existence and local stability of equilibria. We show that Hopf bifurcation can occur. We also establish the global stability of the boundary equilibria and persistence of the disease. The theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations.     

Bistability of Evolutionary Stable Vaccination Strategies in the Reinfection SIRI Model

We use the reinfection SIRI epidemiological model to analyze the impact of education programs and vaccine scares on individuals decisions to vaccinate or not. The presence of the reinfection provokes the novelty of the existence of three Nash equilibria for the same level of the morbidity relative risk instead of a single Nash equilibrium as occurs in the SIR model studied by Bauch and Earn (PNAS 101:13391–13394, 2004). The existence of three Nash equilibria, with two of them being evolutionary stable, introduces two scenarios with relevant and opposite features for the same level of the morbidity relative risk: the low-vaccination scenario corresponding to the evolutionary stable vaccination strategy, where individuals will vaccinate with a low probability; and the high-vaccination scenario corresponding to the evolutionary stable vaccination strategy, where individuals will vaccinate with a high probability. We introduce the evolutionary vaccination dynamics for the SIRI model and we prove that it is bistable. The bistability of the evolutionary dynamics indicates that the damage provoked by false scares on the vaccination perceived morbidity risks can be much higher and much more persistent than in the SIR model. Furthermore, the vaccination education programs to be efficient they need to implement a mechanism to suddenly increase the vaccination coverage level.     

Dynamics analysis of a predator–prey system with harvesting prey and disease in prey species

In this paper, a predator–prey system with harvesting prey and disease in prey species is given. In the absence of time delay, the existence and stability of all equilibria are investigated. In the presence of time delay, some sufficient conditions of the local stability of the positive equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are obtained by analysing the corresponding characteristic equation, and the properties of Hopf bifurcation are given by using the normal form theory and centre manifold theorem. Furthermore, an optimal harvesting policy is investigated by applying the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Numerical simulations are performed to support our analytic results.     

General analysis of frequency-dependent sexual selection at a multi-allelic locus

A general model is analyzed in which arbitrarily frequency-dependent selection acts on one sex of a diploid population with several alleles at one locus, as a result of viability or mating-success differences. The existence of boundary and polymorphic equilibria is examined, and conditions for local stability, internal and external, are obtained. The status of Hardy-Weinberg approximations in studying stability and approach to equilibria is also considered. The general principles are then applied to two specific models: one where genotypes fall into two phenotypic classes; and one with a hierarchy of dominance where viability and sexual selection are opposed. In the latter case it is found that, of all the equilibria present, there is one and only one which could possibly be stable: the existence of a unique globally stable equilibrium might then be inferred.     

Competitive exclusion and coexistence of pathogens in a homosexually-transmitted disease model

A sexually-transmitted disease model for two strains of pathogen in a one-sex, heterogeneously-mixing population has been studied completely by Jiang and Chai in (J Math Biol 56:373-390, 2008). In this paper, we give a analysis for a SIS STD with two competing strains, where populations are divided into three differential groups based on their susceptibility to two distinct pathogenic strains. We investigate the existence and stability of the boundary equilibria that characterizes competitive exclusion of the two competing strains; we also investigate the existence and stability of the positive coexistence equilibrium, which characterizes the possibility of coexistence of the two strains. We obtain sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence and global stability about these equilibria under some assumptions. We verify that there is a strong connection between the stability of the boundary equilibria and the existence of the coexistence equilibrium, that is, there exists a unique coexistence equilibrium if and only if the boundary equilibria both exist and have the same stability, the coexistence equilibrium is globally stable or unstable if and only if the two boundary equilibria are both unstable or both stable.     

Impact of chemo-therapy on optimal control of malaria disease with infected immigrants

We derived and analyzed rigorously a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of malaria infection with the recruitment of infected immigrants, treatment of infectives and spray of insecticides against mosquitoes in the population. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the deterministic model are performed with respect to stability of the disease free and endemic equilibria. It is found that in the absence of infected immigrants disease-free equilibrium is achievable and is locally asymptotically stable. Using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, the optimal strategies for disease control are established. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results.     

一个具暂时免疫且总人数可变的传染病动力学模型

建立了一个具常恢复率和接触率依赖于总人数的SIRS传染病动力学模型，讨论了系统平衡点的存在性和稳定性，对双线性传染率的特殊情形，给出了传染病平衡点的全局稳定性结论，推广和改进了已有的相应结果。     

Evolutionary dynamics and strong Allee effects

We describe the dynamics of an evolutionary model for a population subject to a strong Allee effect. The model assumes that the carrying capacity k(u), inherent growth rate r(u), and Allee threshold a(u) are functions of a mean phenotypic trait u subject to evolution. The model is a plane autonomous system that describes the coupled population and mean trait dynamics. We show bounded orbits equilibrate and that the Allee basin shrinks (and can even disappear) as a result of evolution. We also show that stable non-extinction equilibria occur at the local maxima of k(u) and that stable extinction equilibria occur at local minima of r(u). We give examples that illustrate these results and demonstrate other consequences of an Allee threshold in an evolutionary setting. These include the existence of multiple evolutionarily stable, non-extinction equilibria, and the possibility of evolving to a non-evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) trait from an initial trait near an ESS.     

Dynamic vaccination games and variational inequalities on time-dependent sets

This paper presents a model of a dynamic vaccination game in a population consisting of a collection of groups, each of which holds distinct perceptions of vaccinating versus non-vaccinating risks. Vaccination is regarded here as a game due to the fact that the payoff to each population group depends on the so-called perceived probability of getting infected given a certain level of the vaccine coverage in the population, a level that is generally obtained by the vaccinating decisions of other members of a population. The novelty of this model resides in the fact that it describes a repeated vaccination game (over a finite time horizon) of population groups whose sizes vary with time. In particular, the dynamic game is proven to have solutions using a parametric variational inequality approach often employed in optimization and network equilibrium problems. Moreover, the model does not make any assumptions upon the level of the vaccine coverage in the population, but rather computes this level as a final result. This model could then be used to compute possible vaccine coverage scenarios in a population, given information about its heterogeneity with respect to perceived vaccine risks. In support of the model, some theoretical results were advanced (presented in the appendix) to ensure that computation of optimal vaccination strategies can take place; this means, the theory states the existence, uniqueness and regularity (in our case piecewise continuity) of the solution curves representing the evolution of optimal vaccination strategies of each population group.