一个具有时滞的媒介传播流行病模型中的Hopt分支（英文）

文章研究的是一个具有时滞的媒介传播流行病模型.假定长期的发病率是双线性大规模行动的方式,确定了疾病是否流行的阈值R_0.当R_0≤1时,得到无病平衡点是全局稳定的,即疾病消失;当R_0〉1时,得到地方病平衡点.在具有时滞的微分模型中,时滞与载体转变成传染源的孵化期有关。我们研究了时滞对平衡点稳定性的影响,研究表明,在从寄生源到载体的传播过程中,时滞可以破坏动力系统并且得到了Hopt分支的周期解.     

Analysis of SIR epidemic models with nonlinear incidence rate and treatment

This paper deals with the nonlinear dynamics of a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate, vertical transmission, vaccination for the newborns of susceptible and recovered individuals, and the capacity of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infectives when it is below the capacity and constant when the number of infectives reaches the capacity. Under some conditions, it is shown that there exists a backward bifurcation from an endemic equilibrium, which implies that the disease-free equilibrium coexists with an endemic equilibrium. In such a case, reducing the basic reproduction number less than unity is not enough to control and eradicate the disease, extra measures are needed to ensure that the solutions approach the disease-free equilibrium. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the model can have multiple endemic equilibria due to the effect of treatment, vaccination and other parameters. The existence and stability of the endemic equilibria of the model are analyzed and sufficient conditions on the existence and stability of a limit cycle are obtained. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.     

Dynamics of plant mosaic disease propagation and the usefulness of roguing as an alternative biological control

In this research article, an epidemiological model is formulated for mosaic disease considering plant and vector populations. Plant host population has been divided into three compartments namely healthy, latently infected and infected ones, and vector population is divided into two compartments: non-infective and infective vectors. The system possesses three equilibria: plant-only, disease-free and endemic equilibrium. Plant-only equilibrium is always unstable; disease-free equilibrium is stable when the basic reproduction number, R₀, is less than unity and unstable for when it crosses unity, and ensure existence of an endemic equilibrium which may be stable or can undergo a Hopf bifurcation. Finally, impulse periodic roguing with varied rate and time interval is adopted for cost effective and eco-friendly disease control and future direction of agriculture management. The dynamics of the impulsive system has also been analysed. Detailed numerical simulations are employed to support the analytical results. We found that roguing is most cost effective and useful management for mosaic disease eradication of plants if applied at proper rate and interval.     

Oscillations in a patchy environment disease model

For a single patch SIRS model with a period of immunity of fixed length, recruitment-death demographics, disease related deaths and mass action incidence, the basic reproduction number R(0) is identified. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R(0)<1. For R(0)>1, local stability of the endemic equilibrium and Hopf bifurcation analysis about this equilibrium are carried out. Moreover, a practical numerical approach to locate the bifurcation values for a characteristic equation with delay-dependent coefficients is provided. For a two patch SIRS model with travel, it is shown that there are several threshold quantities determining its dynamic behavior and that travel can reduce oscillations in both patches; travel may enhance oscillations in both patches; or travel can switch oscillations from one patch to another.     

Modelling the effects of pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccines in tuberculosis control

Epidemic control strategies alter the spread of the disease in the host population. In this paper, we describe and discuss mathematical models that can be used to explore the potential of pre-exposure and post-exposure vaccines currently under development in the control of tuberculosis. A model with bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination for the susceptibles and treatment for the infectives is first presented. The epidemic thresholds known as the basic reproduction numbers and equilibria for the models are determined and stabilities are investigated. The reproduction numbers for the models are compared to assess the impact of the vaccines currently under development. The centre manifold theory is used to show the existence of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number is less than unity and that the unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is greater than unity. From the study we conclude that the pre-exposure vaccine currently under development coupled with chemoprophylaxis for the latently infected and treatment of infectives is more effective when compared to the post-exposure vaccine currently under development for the latently infected coupled with treatment of the infectives.     

Global dynamics of an epidemiological model with age of infection and disease relapse

In this paper, an epidemiological model with age of infection and disease relapse is investigated. The basic reproduction number for the model is identified, and it is shown to be a sharp threshold to completely determine the global dynamics of the model. By analysing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free steady state and an endemic steady state of the model is established. By means of suitable Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, it is verified that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable, and hence the disease dies out; if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the endemic steady state is globally asymptotically stable and the disease becomes endemic.     

Endemic threshold results in an age-duration-structured population model for HIV infection

In this paper we consider an age-duration-structured population model for HIV infection in a homosexual community. First we investigate the invasion problem to establish the basic reproduction ratio R(0) for the HIV/AIDS epidemic by which we can state the threshold criteria: The disease can invade into the completely susceptible population if R(0)>1, whereas it cannot if R(0)<1. Subsequently, we examine existence and uniqueness of endemic steady states. We will show sufficient conditions for a backward or a forward bifurcation to occur when the basic reproduction ratio crosses unity. That is, in contrast with classical epidemic models, for our HIV model there could exist multiple endemic steady states even if R(0) is less than one. Finally, we show sufficient conditions for the local stability of the endemic steady states.     

Dynamics analysis of a predator–prey system with harvesting prey and disease in prey species

In this paper, a predator–prey system with harvesting prey and disease in prey species is given. In the absence of time delay, the existence and stability of all equilibria are investigated. In the presence of time delay, some sufficient conditions of the local stability of the positive equilibrium and the existence of Hopf bifurcation are obtained by analysing the corresponding characteristic equation, and the properties of Hopf bifurcation are given by using the normal form theory and centre manifold theorem. Furthermore, an optimal harvesting policy is investigated by applying the Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. Numerical simulations are performed to support our analytic results.     

Role of incidence function in vaccine-induced backward bifurcation in some HIV models

The phenomenon of backward bifurcation in disease models, where a stable endemic equilibrium co-exists with a stable disease-free equilibrium when the associated reproduction number is less than unity, has important implications for disease control. In such a scenario, the classical requirement of the reproduction number being less than unity becomes only a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for disease elimination. This paper addresses the role of the choice of incidence function in a vaccine-induced backward bifurcation in HIV models. Several examples are given where backward bifurcations occur using standard incidence, but not with their equivalents that employ mass action incidence. Furthermore, this result is independent of the type of vaccination program adopted. These results emphasize the need for further work on the incidence functions used in HIV models.     

具免疫时滞的HIV感染模型动力学性质分析

讨论了一类具免疫时滞的HIV感染模型.分析了未感染平衡点的全局渐近稳定性,给出了感染无免疫平衡点及感染免疫平衡点局部渐近稳定的充分条件.数值模拟结果表明,当易感细胞生成率的取值使得基本再生数满足平衡存在的条件且低于某一临界值时,时滞对平衡点的稳定性没有影响;若大于该临界值,随着时滞增大,稳定性开关发生,平衡点不稳定,出现一系列Hopf分支,最终表现为周期波动模式.     

具饱和CTL免疫反应的时滞HIV感染系统稳定性分析

考虑CTL免疫反应的饱和效应及免疫时滞两个因素,建立HIV感染模型.分析了无感染平衡点的全局稳定性,得到了系统免疫未激活平衡点及免疫激活平衡点局部渐近稳定的充分条件.针对功能反应函数中的参数及免疫时滞,讨论了免疫被激活平衡点附近存在Hopf分支的充分条件.最后,对所得理论结果进行了数值模拟.     

Effects of quarantine in six endemic models for infectious diseases

Thresholds, equilibria, and their stability are found for SIQS and SIQR epidemiology models with three forms of the incidence. For most of these models, the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable, but for the SIQR model with the quarantine-adjusted incidence, the endemic equilibrium is an unstable spiral for some parameter values and periodic solutions arise by Hopf bifurcation. The Hopf bifurcation surface and stable periodic solutions are found numerically.     

Spread of disease with transport-related infection and entry screening

An SIQS model is proposed to study the effect of transport-related infection and entry screening. If the basic reproduction number is below unity, the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable. There exists an endemic equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable if the reproduction number is larger than unity. It is shown that the disease is endemic in the sense of permanence if and only if the endemic equilibrium exists. Entry screening is shown to be helpful for disease eradication since it can always have the possibility to eradicate the disease led by transport-related infection and furthermore have the possibility to eradicate disease even when the disease is endemic in both isolated cities.     

Bifurcation analysis of the Nowak-Bangham model in CTL dynamics

This paper investigates the local bifurcations of a CTL response model published by Nowak and Bangham [M.A. Nowak, C.R.M. Bangham, Population dynamics of immune responses to persistent viruses, Science 272 (1996) 74]. The Nowak-Bangham model can have three equilibria depending on the basic reproduction number, and generates a Hopf bifurcation through two bifurcations of equilibria. The main result shows a sufficient condition for the interior equilibrium to have a unique bifurcation point at which a simple Hopf bifurcation occurs. For this proof, some new techniques are developed in order to apply the method established by Liu [W.M. Liu, Criterion of Hopf bifurcations without using eigenvalues, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 182 (1) (1994) 250]. In addition, to demonstrate the result obtained theoretically, some bifurcation diagrams are presented with numerical examples.     

Dynamical analysis of a diffusion plant-wrack model with delay

In this paper, in view of the senescence of plant and the decay of wrack, time delays are introduced into the plant-wrack model. The effects of wrack decay and time delay on the dynamical behaviors of the diffusive plant-wrack model are studied analytically and numerically. When the delay is zero, the wrack decay will induce the change of stability of the unique equilibrium point, further lead to the occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation and the Turing instability. When the delay is present, the conditions for the occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation are established. By comparing the results of the model without and with delay, it is found that the increases of delay may induce no stability switches, a single stability switch or multiple stability switches, when the value of wrack decay can stabilize model with zero delay. When the value of wrack decay can destabilize model with zero delay, numerical simulations show that the small delay may cause homogeneous distributions of vegetation, while the larger delay may cause the emergence of periodic oscillation of vegetation. The obtained results provide a basis for understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of such a plant-wrack model with delay.     

一个时滞微分系统的稳定性与Hopf分支

给出了一个三维时滞微分系统的平衡点的全时滞稳定的代数判据。也讨论并给出了这个系统存在Hopf分支的条件,两个例子说明了本文定理的应用。     

An SIR pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography

The demography and infection age play an important role in the spread of slowly progressive diseases. To investigate their effects on the disease spreading, we propose a pairwise epidemic model with infection age and demography on dynamic networks. The basic reproduction number of this model is derived. It is proved that there is a disease-free equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less that unity. Besides, sensitivity analysis is performed and shows that increasing the variance in recovery time and decreasing the variance in infection time can effectively control the diseases. The complex interaction between the death rate and equilibrium prevalence suggests that it is imperative to correctly estimate the parameters of demography in order to assess the disease transmission dynamics accurately. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable.     

Oscillatory viral dynamics in a delayed HIV pathogenesis model

We consider an HIV pathogenesis model incorporating antiretroviral therapy and HIV replication time. We investigate the existence and stability of equilibria, as well as Hopf bifurcations to sustained oscillations when drug efficacy is less than 100%. We derive sufficient conditions for the global asymptotic stability of the uninfected steady state. We show that time delay has no effect on the local asymptotic stability of the uninfected steady state, but can destabilize the infected steady state, leading to a Hopf bifurcation to periodic solutions in the realistic parameter ranges.     

Analysis of Risk-Structured Vaccination Model for the Dynamics of Oncogenic and Warts-Causing HPV Types

A new deterministic model is designed and used to assess the community-wide impact of mass vaccination of new sexually active individuals on the dynamics of the oncogenic and warts-causing HPV types. Rigorous qualitative analyses of the model, which incorporates the two currently available anti-HPV vaccines, reveal that it undergoes competitive exclusion when the reproduction of one HPV risk type (low/high) exceeds unity, while that of the other HPV risk type is less than unity. For the case when the reproduction numbers of the two HPV risk types (low/high) exceed unity, the two risk types co-exist. It is shown that the sub-model with the low-risk HPV types only has at least one endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction threshold exceeds unity. Furthermore, this sub-model undergoes a re-infection-induced backward bifurcation under certain conditions. In the absence of the re-infection of recovered individuals and cancer-induced mortality in males, the associated disease-free equilibrium of the full (risk-structured) model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number of the model is less than unity (that is, the full model does not undergo backward bifurcation under this setting). It is shown, via numerical simulations, that the use of the Gardasil vaccine could lead to the effective control of HPV in the community if the coverage rate is in the range of 73–95 % (84 %). If 70 % of the new sexually active susceptible females are vaccinated with the Gardasil vaccine, additionally vaccinating 34–56 % (45 %) of the new sexually active susceptible males can lead to the effective community-wide control (or elimination) of the HPV types.     

Stability switches and double Hopf bifurcation in a two-neural network system with multiple delays

Time delay is an inevitable factor in neural networks due to the finite propagation velocity and switching speed. Neural system may lose its stability even for very small delay. In this paper, a two-neural network system with the different types of delays involved in self- and neighbor- connection has been investigated. The local asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point is studied by analyzing the corresponding characteristic equation. It is found that the multiple delays can lead the system dynamic behavior to exhibit stability switches. The delay-dependent stability regions are illustrated in the delay-parameter plane, followed which the double Hopf bifurcation points can be obtained from the intersection points of the first and second Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the corresponding characteristic equation has two pairs of imaginary eigenvalues. Taking the delays as the bifurcation parameters, the classification and bifurcation sets are obtained in terms of the central manifold reduction and normal form method. The dynamical behavior of system may exhibit the quasi-periodic solutions due to the Neimark- Sacker bifurcation. Finally, numerical simulations are made to verify the theoretical results.