Lesser Scaup Breeding Probability and Female Survival on the Yukon Flats,Alaska

ABSTRACT Information on the ecology of waterfowl breeding in the boreal forest is lacking, despite the boreal region's importance to continental waterfowl populations and to duck species that are currently declining, such as lesser scaup (Aythya affinis). We estimated breeding probability and breeding season survival of female lesser scaup on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA, in 2005 and 2006. We captured and marked 93 lesser scaup with radiotransmitters during prelaying and nesting periods. Although all marked lesser scaup females were paired throughout prelaying and incubation periods, we estimated breeding probability over both years as 0.12 (SE = 0.05, n = 67) using telemetry. Proportion of lesser scaup females undergoing rapid follicle growth at capture in 2006 was 0.46 (SE = 0.11, n = 37), based on concentration of yolk precursors in blood plasma. By combining methods based on telemetry, yolk precursors, and postovulatory follicles, we estimated maximum breeding probability as 0.68 (SE = 0.08, n = 37) in 2006. Notably, breeding probability was positively related to female body mass. Survival of female lesser scaup during the nesting and brood-rearing periods was 0.92 (SE = 0.05) in 2005 and 0.86 (SE = 0.08) in 2006. Our results suggest that breeding probability is lower than expected for lesser scaup. In addition, the implicit assumption of continental duck-monitoring programs that all paired females attempt to breed should be reevaluated. Recruitment estimates based on annual breeding-pair surveys may overestimate productivity of scaup pairs in the boreal forest.     

Stable Isotopes (δD, δ13C, δ15N) Reveal Associations Among Geographic Location and Condition of Alaskan Northern Pintails

Abstract: Information on spring migration routes, geographic linkages among winter, spring, and breeding locations, and potential geographic effects on arrival body condition of northern pintails (Anas acuta) are currently unknown. Through a combination of stable-isotope measurements of tissues representing different periods of dietary integration and body composition analyses, we examined these linkages for pintails breeding in Alaska, USA. We collected 77 females at 4 locations upon spring arrival. We performed carbon (δ¹³C), nitrogen (δ¹⁵N), and hydrogen (δD) isotope measurements on flight feathers, breast feathers, and whole blood, and we conducted body composition analyses. Inference based on stable-isotope values in pintail tissues suggests that philopatry to Alaska was strong, as most of the collected females had stable-isotope values consistent with the boreal forest of Canada or western Alaska and most spring migrating females had whole-blood values indicating use of a food web in the boreal forest before collection. These patterns highlight the importance of the boreal forest for production and staging of pintails. Breast feather isotope values grown during prealternate molt were variable and covered the currently documented distribution of wintering pintails. Our results indicate associations among specific geographic areas, habitat use, and arrival condition of female pintails settling in Alaska. Females that wintered or staged in coastal habitat (as indicated by elevated δ¹³C values) arrived with less body fat compared to those that we inferred to have wintered or staged on inland freshwater habitat. Those females we inferred to use coastal areas appeared to rely more heavily on agricultural fields for nutrient acquisition (as indicated by elevated δ¹⁵N but low δ¹³C values). Our results provide the first link between low-condition females and inferred use of specific geographic areas before arrival. Conservation on wintering grounds should focus on restoration and protection of wetland complexes that provide adequate natural food resources in proximity to coastal systems that are heavily used by wintering pintails. Conservation efforts should also focus on the boreal forest, not only for pintail, but for other boreal-dependent species such as lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):715–725; 2008)     

A Method for Investigating Population Declines of Migratory Birds Using Stable Isotopes: Origins of Harvested Lesser Scaup in North America

Background

Elucidating geographic locations from where migratory birds are recruited into adult breeding populations is a fundamental but largely elusive goal in conservation biology. This is especially true for species that breed in remote northern areas where field-based demographic assessments are logistically challenging.

Methodology/Findings

Here we used hydrogen isotopes (δD) to determine natal origins of migrating hatch-year lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) harvested by hunters in the United States from all North American flyways during the hunting seasons of 1999–2000 (n = 412) and 2000–2001 (n = 455). We combined geospatial, observational, and analytical data sources, including known scaup breeding range, δD values of feathers from juveniles at natal sites, models of δD for growing-season precipitation, and scaup band-recovery data to generate probabilistic natal origin landscapes for individual scaup. We then used Monte Carlo integration to model assignment uncertainty from among individual δD variance estimates from birds of known molt origin and also from band-return data summarized at the flyway level. We compared the distribution of scaup natal origin with the distribution of breeding population counts obtained from systematic long-term surveys.

Conclusions/Significance

Our analysis revealed that the proportion of young scaup produced in the northern (above 60°N) versus the southern boreal and Prairie-Parkland region was inversely related to the proportions of breeding adults using these regions, suggesting that despite having a higher relative abundance of breeding adults, the northern boreal region was less productive for scaup recruitment into the harvest than more southern biomes. Our approach for evaluating population declines of migratory birds (particularly game birds) synthesizes all available distributional data and exploits the advantages of intrinsic isotopic markers that link individuals to geography.     

Nasal Discs and the Vital Rates of Lesser Scaup

Nasal discs have been used to identify ducks in studies of survival and reproduction. To date, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of nasal-disc effects on the vital rates of wild ducks. We applied nasal discs to 603 juvenile and 784 adult lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) females from a population breeding in southwest Montana, USA, and released 1,399 juvenile and 71 adult females wearing only metal leg bands between June 2005 and September 2016. Using resighting, recapture, and hunter-recovery data collected from those individuals, we estimated survival and recovery probability with multistate capture-recapture models in Program MARK. We also assessed if recovery distance from our study site and pre-breeding and brood-rearing body condition were diminished for females wearing nasal discs. Model-averaged survival probabilities were 0.231 ± 0.035 (SE) for juveniles and 0.482 ± 0.019 for adults released with nasal discs. Survival was 1.8–3.4 times higher for females released with metal leg bands when compared to those released with nasal discs; survival of these juveniles was 0.433 ± 0.049 and 0.693 ± 0.039 for adults. We did not find evidence for recovery probability or recovery distance varying between females that wore nasal discs and those that did not. During the pre-breeding and brood-rearing seasons, we did not find females wearing nasal discs to be in lower body condition when compared to unmarked females. Our comprehensive assessment of nasal discs on wild lesser scaup suggests that survival probabilities estimated from nasal-marked study populations should be cautiously interpreted as minimum estimates. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Prefledging Growth and Recruitment of Female Lesser Scaup

Annual variation in juvenile recruitment is an important component of duck population dynamics, yet little is known about the factors affecting the probability of surviving and breeding in the first year of life. Two hypothesized mechanisms to explain annual variability are indirect carry-over effects (COEs) from conditions experienced during the prefledging period and direct effects from climatic conditions during the postfledging period. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to estimate apparent survival and detection rates of 643 juvenile female lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) marked just prior to fledging at Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge in southwestern Montana, USA, 2010–2018. We evaluated COEs from hatch date, a hatch date × spring phenology interaction, and conspecific duckling density in addition to a direct climatic effect of winter conditions (indexed by the El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) and spring habitat conditions on the study area. We used growth data from a subset (n = 190) of known-aged ducklings to estimate the influence of hatch date and conspecific density on prefledging growth to help identify mechanisms underlying COEs. Prefledging growth and juvenile apparent survival were negatively related to measures of conspecific duckling density. We found evidence that detection probability varied annually for juvenile (but not adult) scaup, possibly representing decisions to delay breeding and not return to or remain at the study site in their first year of life. Like with apparent survival, there was suggestive evidence that detection probability decreased with increasing duckling density in the previous year. Hatching date was weakly negatively related to detection probability, but unrelated to apparent survival, whereas neither vital rate was related to winter ENSO index. Our results are consistent with a process where density-dependent growth rates in the prefledging period carry over to influence fitness in subsequent life-cycle stages. If this pattern generalizes to other systems, this density COE may have important implications for our understanding of duck population dynamics and reaffirms the importance of maintaining abundant brood-rearing habitats in conservation and management of ducks. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Endogenous contributions to egg protein formation in lesser scaup Aythya affinis

Lesser scaup Aythya affinis populations have declined throughout the North American continent for the last three decades. It has been hypothesized that the loss and degradation of staging habitats has resulted in reduced female body condition on the breeding grounds and a concomitant decline in productivity. We explored the importance of body (endogenous) reserves obtained prior to arrival on the breeding ground in egg protein formation in southwestern Montana during 2006–2008 using stable‐carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotope analyses of scaup egg components, female tissue, and local prey items. From arrival on the breeding grounds through the egg‐laying period, δ¹⁵N values of scaup red blood cells decreased while δ¹³C values became less variable; a pattern consistent with endogenous tissues equilibrating with local (freshwater) dietary sources. In 2006 and 2008, isotopic values for egg albumen and yolk protein indicated that most (>90%) protein used to produce these components was obtained on the breeding grounds. However, in 2007, a year with an exceptionally warm and dry spring, endogenous reserves contributed on average 41% of yolk and 29% of albumen. Results from this study suggest that female scaup can meet the protein needs of egg production largely from local dietary food sources. This highlights the importance of providing high‐quality breeding habitats for scaup. Whether this pattern holds in areas with similar breeding season lengths but longer migration routes, such as those found in the western boreal forest, should be investigated.     

Seasonal variation in pre‐fledging survival of lesser scaup Aythya affinis: hatch date effects depend on maternal body mass

Among temperate‐breeding birds, offspring survival and reproductive success are often inversely related to timing of breeding. The mechanisms that produce seasonal declines in offspring survival are not fully understood but may be related to temporal changes in parental quality, environmental quality, or both. We analyzed data for lesser scaup Aythya affinis to evaluate hypothesized effects of parental quality and date on pre‐fledging survival. Maternal quality, as indexed by body mass, did not have an independent effect on offspring survival in this species. Maternal body mass did not decline seasonally and did not have an independent effect on duckling survival. Although we did not detect an independent effect of hatch date on duckling survival, duckling survival declined seasonally for broods raised by lightweight females, indicating an interactive effect of maternal mass and date. We hypothesize that this interaction may be driven by seasonally declining food resources coupled with the influence of female condition on the ability to monopolize food resources or remain attentive to the brood. We also tested morphological predictions of the date hypothesis by examining physical characteristics of ducklings. When corrected for age and size, late‐hatched ducklings tended to have marginally larger digestive systems and smaller leg muscles than did early‐hatched birds. Abundances of intestinal parasites acquired through diet decreased marginally in late‐hatched ducklings. Results for digestive system and parasite infection patterns suggested that later‐hatched broods may shift diets, consistent with a contribution of environmental factors to seasonal variation in offspring survival. Taken together, our results suggest that both female attributes and environmental conditions may influence seasonal patterns of offspring survival in this species.     

Lesser Scaup Nest Success and Duckling Survival on the Yukon Flats,Alaska

Abstract: Over the last 20 years scaup numbers have declined, and these declines have been greatest in the northern boreal forests of Canada and Alaska where most lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) nest. We studied nest success and duckling survival of lesser scaup over 3 field seasons, 2001–2003, on the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge in northeastern Alaska, USA. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests on our study area across all 3 years was 0.943 (n = 177 nests, 95% CI: 0.930–0.954), corresponding to a nest success of only 12.3%, considerably lower than published estimates of an average nest success as high as 57% for lesser scaup in the northern boreal forest. With Mayfield logistic regression, we investigated effects on nest survival of year, clutch initiation date, and nesting habitat type (large wetlands >10 ha, small wetlands <10 ha, and wooded creeks). Neither year nor clutch initiation date influenced nest survival; however, the odds of nest success on large wetlands was 49% lower than on wooded creeks (odds ratio = 0.512, 95% CI = 0.286, 0.918). Based on the model that used only habitat type for estimation, DSR on large wetlands was 0.931 (corresponding nest success = 7.6%), DSR on small wetlands was 0.941 (nest success = 11.1%), and DSR on wooded creeks was 0.963 (nest success = 26.2%). To estimate duckling survival, we monitored 10 broods (n = 75 ducklings) over 3 field seasons by radiotagging hens at nest hatch. Most duckling mortality (94%) occurred in the first 10 days after hatch. Average duckling survival during 1–10 days was 0.321 (95% CI: 0.122–0.772), during 11–20 days was 0.996 (95% CI: 0.891–1.040), and during 21–30 days was 0.923 (95% CI: 0.769–1.041). Three of 10 hens moved all or part of their broods overland between nesting and brood-rearing wetlands for distances of 0.3–1.6 km. Our estimates of lesser scaup nest success and duckling survival on the Yukon Flats were among the lowest ever reported for ducks nesting at northern latitudes, even though the study site was in pristine boreal forest. Estimating and comparing scaup demographic rates from different geographic areas can contribute to improved conservation. Given the scarcity of information on scaup nesting in the boreal forest, basic nesting parameters are important to those trying to model scaup population dynamics.     

Influence of Density and Climate on Population Dynamics of a Large Herbivore Under Harsh Environmental Conditions

ABSTRACT Dynamics of herbivore populations can be influenced both by density-dependent processes and climate. We used age-at-harvest data for adult female white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) collected over 23 years to estimate survival and reproduction by age class and to identify effects of environmental factors. The study population was located on Anticosti Island (QC, Canada), at the northern limit of the species' range; the population was at high density, and the landscape had scarce forage and abundant snow during winter. Despite severe environmental conditions, population growth apparently increased during the study; adult survival was similar to other populations, although reproduction appeared lower. Winter severity was not related to survival, but density affected adult female survival. Density at estrus was the main factor influencing reproduction of 2- and 3–4-year-olds and also affected reproduction of prime-aged females (5–9-yr-olds), but not of older females. Reproductive rate of younger females was influenced by environmental conditions in autumn, such as high density or snow conditions that limited forage availability. Reproductive success of 5–9- and ≥10-year-old females appeared dependent on spring conditions favoring high-quality forage, probably through effects on neonatal survival. Relative to other studies on northern ungulates, demographic processes in our study appeared to be more affected by autumn and spring climate, in addition to population density, than by winter climate. We thus propose that population density, as well as autumn and spring climate, should be considered in management strategies. Harvest data offered a unique opportunity to study forest ungulates, for which individual monitoring is rarely possible.     

Male‐skewed adult sex ratio,survival, mating opportunity and annual productivity in the Snowy Plover Charadrius alexandrinus

Sex differences in adult mortality may be responsible for male‐skewed adult sex ratios and male‐skewed parental care in some birds. Because a surplus of breeding males has been reported in serially polyandrous populations of Snowy Plover Charadrius alexandrinus, we examined sex ratio, early‐season nesting opportunities, adult survival and annual reproductive success of a Snowy Plover population at Monterey Bay, California. We tested the hypotheses that male adult survival was greater than female survival and that a sex difference in adult survival led to a skewed adult sex ratio, different mating opportunities and different annual productivity between the sexes. Virtually all females left chicks from their first broods to the care of the male and re‐nested with a new mate. As a result, females had time to parent three successful nesting attempts during the lengthy breeding season, whereas males had time for only two successful attempts. Among years, the median population of nesting Plovers was 96 males and 84 females (median difference = 9), resulting in one extra male per eight pairs. The number of potential breeders without mates during the early nesting period each year was higher in males than in females. Adult male survival (0.734 ± 0.028 se) was higher than female survival (0.693 ± 0.030 se) in top‐ranked models. Annually, females parented more successful clutches and fledged more chicks than their first mates of the season. Our results suggest that in C. alexandrinus a sex difference in adult survival results in a male‐skewed sex ratio, which creates more nesting opportunities and greater annual productivity for females than for males.     

Annual-Cycle Movements and Phenology of Black Scoters in Eastern North America

Sea ducks exhibit complex movement patterns throughout their annual cycle; most species use distinct molting and staging sites during migration and disjunct breeding and wintering sites. Although research on black scoters (Melanitta americana) has investigated movements and habitat selection during winter, little is known about their annual-cycle movements. We used satellite telemetry to identify individual variation in migratory routes and breeding areas for black scoters wintering along the Atlantic Coast, to assess migratory connectivity among wintering, staging, breeding, and molt sites, and to examine effects of breeding site attendance on movement patterns and phenology. Black scoters occupied wintering areas from Canadian Maritime provinces to the southeastern United States. Males used an average of 2.5 distinct winter areas compared to 1.1 areas for females, and within-winter movements averaged 1,256 km/individual. Individuals used an average of 2.1 staging sites during the 45-day pre-breeding migration period, and almost all were detected in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Males spent less time at breeding sites and departed them earlier than females. During post-breeding migration, females took approximately 25 fewer days than males to migrate from breeding sites to molt and staging sites, and then wintering areas. Most individuals used molt sites in James and Hudson bays before migrating directly to coastal wintering sites, which took approximately 11 days and covered 1,524 km. Males tended to arrive at wintering areas 10 days earlier than females. Individuals wintering near one another did not breed closer together than expected by chance, suggesting weak spatial structuring of the Atlantic population. Females exhibited greater fidelity (4.5 km) to previously used breeding sites compared to males (60 km). A substantial number of birds bred west of Hudson Bay in the Barrenlands, suggesting this area is used more widely than believed previously. Hudson and James bays provided key habitat for black scoters that winter along the Atlantic Coast, with most individuals residing for >30% of their annual cycle in these bays. Relative to other species of sea duck along the Atlantic Coast, the Atlantic population of black scoter is more dispersed and mobile during winter but is more concentrated during migration. These results could have implications for future survey efforts designed to assess population trends of black scoters. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Population vulnerability to climate change linked to timing of breeding in boreal ducks

Identifying and understanding why traits make species vulnerable to changing climatic conditions remain central problems in evolutionary and applied ecology. We used spring snow cover duration as a proxy for phenological timing of wetland ecosystems, and examined how snow cover duration during spring and during the entire snow season affected population dynamics of duck species breeding in the western boreal forest of North America, 1973–2007. We predicted that population level responses would differ among duck species, such that late‐nesting species with reduced flexibility in their timing of breeding, i.e. scaup (Aythya spp.) and scoter (Melanitta spp.), would be more strongly affected by changing snow cover conditions relative to species better able to adjust timing of breeding to seasonal phenology, i.e. mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and American wigeon (Anas americana). Population growth rates of scaup and scoter were positively linked to spring snow cover duration; after accounting for effects of density dependence, larger populations resulted after springs with long snow cover duration than after springs with short snow cover duration. In contrast, population growth rates of mallard and wigeon were either negatively or only weakly associated with snow cover duration. Duck population models were then incorporated with snow cover duration derived from climate model simulations under the A2 emission scenario, and these predictions suggested that late‐nesting duck species will experience the most severe population declines. Results are consistent with a hypothesis that the gradual climatic warming observed in the western boreal forest of North America has contributed to and may continue to exacerbate population declines of scaup and scoter.     

Survival of Breeding Pacific Common Eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta,Alaska

ABSTRACT Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) breeding in Alaska, USA, have declined markedly over the past 40 years. We studied survival of adult female Pacific common eiders using capture—recapture of nesting hens at 3 sites on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska from 1994 to 2004. We used data consisting of 268 recapture events from 361 uniquely marked individuals to investigate temporal, geographic, and environmental variation in adult female survival. Our results suggest apparent annual survival of adult eiders from the YKD was high (0.892, SE = 0.022) and spatially and temporally invariant (σ² = 0.005), a pattern consistent with other long-lived marine birds. Moreover, our results suggest adult survival may be functionally fixed for Pacific common eiders, and at the present, adult survival may be relatively unresponsive to environmental or management perturbations. Our data did not support hypothesized variation in survival relative to mortality factors such as predation on breeding grounds, physiologic costs of reproduction, and wintering conditions. Although changes in adult survival likely have a large potential effect on prospective population growth, our results suggest viable management actions aimed at increasing survival may be extremely limited.     

Lactation and care for unrelated infants in forest-living ringtailed Lemurs

An adult female ringtailed lemur (Lemur catta) known not to have been pregnant showed spontaneous lactation in response to twin infants born to an unrelated female. The females had met only 7 months earlier, when they and two other unrelated adult females were released from separate locations in a forest enclosure to form a new social group. Three months after release, an adult male from an adjacent enclosure gained access to the new group for 1 day, the day of one female's estrus. No males had access to the females throughout the remainder of the breeding season. Within 2 weeks of the birth of the twins, one of the other adult females began carrying the infants frequently, typically one at a time. All three females were checked for lactation when the infants were two months old. Both their mother and the unrelated adult who had been carrying the infants were producing milk. The third adult female, who never carried either infant, had no milk. The third adult female, who never carried either infant, had no milk. This female, however, like the two maternal females, frequently attacked unfamiliar immigrating adult males when the males approached the infants. Potential implications of these observations concerning the social organization of ringtailed lemurs are discussed.     

Consequences of breeding system for body condition and survival throughout the annual cycle of tidal marsh sparrows

An individual's body condition and probability of survival can change throughout the annual cycle, based on the combined effects of many factors, including reproductive investment during breeding, colder temperatures during winter, and elevated risks during migration. We evaluated body condition and survival during breeding and non‐breeding periods in two closely related species with notably different reproductive systems. Male and female saltmarsh sparrows Ammodramus caudacutus represent extremes in parental care: males perform none, leaving females to do everything from build nests to care for fledglings. In contrast, male and female seaside sparrows A. maritimus have bi‐parental care and similar levels of reproductive investment, intermediate between male and female saltmarsh sparrows. Our results are consistent with the idea that females experience non‐lethal effects of reproduction, and that differences between the breeding season and winter affect condition. In both species, females had lower scaled mass index (SMI) values than males during both breeding and non‐breeding seasons, and female saltmarsh sparrows had lower SMI values than female seaside sparrows. Females carried more fat than males during the breeding season, and female, but not male, fat and muscle scores decreased over time, which is consistent with the adaptive mass hypothesis. In winter, all groups carried more fat and had higher muscle scores than when breeding, despite having lower SMI scores. Although we observed variation in body condition, within‐season survival was uniformly high in both seasons, suggesting that sex, species, season, body size, and body condition have little impacts on within season survival. Comparisons with previously‐published estimates of annual adult survival suggest that most mortality occurs during migration, even in these short‐distance migrants. The importance of considering multiple aspects of body condition, multiple seasons, and difficult‐to‐monitor events, such as migration, should not be ignored when thinking about the events and processes that cumulatively determine population dynamics.     

Sex allocation and sex‐specific parental investment in an endangered seabird

Biased offspring sex ratio is relatively rare in birds and sex allocation can vary with environmental conditions, with the larger and more costly sex, which can be either the male or female depending on species, favoured during high food availability. Sex‐specific parental investment may lead to biased mortality and, coupled with unequal production of one sex, may result in biased adult sex ratio, with potential grave consequences on population stability. The African Penguin Spheniscus demersus, endemic to southern Africa, is an endangered monogamous seabird with bi‐parental care. Female adult African Penguins are smaller, have a higher foraging effort when breeding and higher mortality compared with adult males. In 2015, a year in which environmental conditions were favourable for breeding, African Penguin chick production on Bird Island, Algoa Bay, South Africa, was skewed towards males (1.5 males to 1 female). Males also had higher growth rates and fledging mass than females, with potentially higher post‐fledging survival. Female, but not male, parents had higher foraging effort and lower body condition with increasing number of male chicks in their brood, thereby revealing flexibility in their parental strategy, but also the costs of their investment in their current brood. The combination of male‐biased chick production and higher female mortality, possibly at the juvenile stage as a result of lower parental investment in female chicks, and/or at the adult stage as a result of higher parental investment, may contribute to a biased adult sex ratio (ASR) in this species. While further research during years of contrasting food availability is needed to confirm this trend, populations with male‐skewed ASRs have higher extinction risks and conservation strategies aiming to benefit female African Penguin might need to be developed.     

Enigmatic Near-Extirpation in a Boreal Toad Metapopulation in Northwestern Montana

North America's protected lands harbor biodiversity and provide habitats where species threatened by a variety of stressors in other environments can thrive. Yet disease, climate change, and other threats are not limited by land management boundaries and can interact with conditions within protected landscapes to affect sensitive populations. We examined the population dynamics of a boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) metapopulation at a wildlife refuge in northwestern Montana, USA, over a 16-year period (2003–2018). We used robust design capture-recapture models to estimate male population size, recruitment, and apparent survival over time and in relation to the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We estimated female population size in years with sufficient captures. Finally, we examined trends in male and female toad body size and condition. We found no evidence of an effect of disease or time on male toad survival but detected a strong negative trend in recruitment of new males to the population. Estimates of male and female abundance decreased over time. Body size of males and females was inversely related to estimated population size, consistent with reduced recruitment to replace adults, but body condition of adult males was only weakly associated with abundance. Together, these results describe the demography of a near-extirpation event, and point to dramatic decreases in the recruitment of new individuals to the breeding population as the cause of this decline. We surmise that processes related to the restoration of historical hydrology within the refuge adversely affected amphibian breeding habitat, and that these changes interacted with disease, life history, and other factors to restrict the recruitment of new individuals to the breeding population over time. Our results point to challenges in understanding and predicting factors that influence population change and highlight that current metrics for assessing population status can have limited predictive ability. Published 2021. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Survival,site fidelity,and the population dynamics of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan

ABSTRACT To conserve threatened species, managers require predictions about the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on population growth that in turn require accurate estimates of survival, birth, and dispersal rates, and their correlation with natural and anthropogenic factors. For Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus), fledging rate is often more amenable to management than adult survival, and population models can be used to estimate the productivity (young produced per breeding female) necessary to maintain or increase populations for given levels of survival. We estimated true survival and site fidelity of adult and subadult (from fledging to second year) Piping Plovers breeding in Saskatchewan using mark‐resight data from 2002 to 2009. By estimating true survival rather than apparent survival (which is confounded with permanent emigration), we were able to provide more accurate projections of population trends. Average adult and subadult survival rates during our study were 0.80 and 0.57, respectively. Adult survival declined over time, possibly due in part to the loss of one breeding site to flooding. Average adult and subadult site fidelity were 0.86 and 0.46, respectively. Adult site fidelity declined during our study at two study sites, most strongly at the flooded site. Male and female Piping Plovers had similar survival rates, but males had greater site fidelity than females in some years. Based on our survival estimates, productivity needed for a stationary population was 0.75, a benchmark used for plover management on the Atlantic Coast, but not previously estimated for Prairie Canada. In stochastic simulations incorporating literature‐based variation in survival rates, productivity needed for a stationary population increased to 0.86, still lower than that previously estimated for western populations. Mean productivity for our study sites ranged from 0.87 to 0.96 fledged young per pair. Our results suggest that fledging rates of Piping Plovers in Saskatchewan were sufficient to ensure a stationary or increasing population during our study period. However, large‐scale habitat changes such as drought or anthropogenic flooding may lead to dispersal of breeding adults and possibly mortality that will increase the fledging rate needed for a stationary population.     

Breeding dispersal strategies following reproductive failure explain low apparent survival of immigrant Temminck's stints

In some animal populations, immigrants have lower survival than philopatric individuals. Costs of dispersal or low phenotypic quality of dispersers may explain the pattern. However, apparent adult survival estimates, which describe real survival combined with site fidelity cannot be separated from permanent emigration. Thus, heterogeneity in breeding dispersal propensities of immigrants and philopatrics can bias fitness correlates of dispersal. Differences in breeding dispersal propensities may be caused by different strategies in response to environmental cues inducing dispersal, such as reproductive success. In such cases, the reported differences between immigrants and philopatric individuals may not reflect true variation in survival. We studied whether dispersal status specific apparent adult survival is associated with reproductive success in a Temminck's stint Calidris temminckii population. We analysed two long term capture–recapture datasets characterised by low and high nest predation levels. Philopatric individuals had higher apparent adult survival than immigrants in both datasets and the difference was highlighted during the high nest predation period. By contrasting return rates between successful and unsuccessful breeders as a proxy for dispersal, we found that unsuccessful immigrants breeding for the first time dispersed more likely than successful immigrants, but such a pattern was not found among philopatric individuals. Our results support the hypothesis that immigrant and philopatric individuals have different breeding dispersal strategies following reproductive failure and that their apparent adult survival differences are at least partly explained by different breeding dispersal propensities. Our results also suggest that the recent decline of the study population reflects a multiple response to increased nest predation through decreased local recruitment and increased emigration.     

Distribution patterns of wintering sea ducks in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation and local environmental characteristics

Twelve species of North American sea ducks (Tribe Mergini) winter off the eastern coast of the United States and Canada. Yet, despite their seasonal proximity to urbanized areas in this region, there is limited information on patterns of wintering sea duck habitat use. It is difficult to gather information on sea ducks because of the relative inaccessibility of their offshore locations, their high degree of mobility, and their aggregated distributions. To characterize environmental conditions that affect wintering distributions, as well as their geographic ranges, we analyzed count data on five species of sea ducks (black scoters Melanitta nigra americana, surf scoters M. perspicillata, white-winged scoters M. fusca, common eiders Somateria mollissima, and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis) that were collected during the Atlantic Flyway Sea Duck Survey for ten years starting in the early 1990s. We modeled count data for each species within ten-nautical-mile linear survey segments using a zero-inflated negative binomial model that included four local-scale habitat covariates (sea surface temperature, mean bottom depth, maximum bottom slope, and a variable to indicate if the segment was in a bay or not), one broad-scale covariate (the North Atlantic Oscillation), and a temporal correlation component. Our results indicate that species distributions have strong latitudinal gradients and consistency in local habitat use. The North Atlantic Oscillation was the only environmental covariate that had a significant (but variable) effect on the expected count for all five species, suggesting that broad-scale climatic conditions may be directly or indirectly important to the distributions of wintering sea ducks. Our results provide critical information on species–habitat associations, elucidate the complicated relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation, sea surface temperature, and local sea duck abundances, and should be useful in assessing the impacts of climate change on seabirds.