Comparative survival and recovery of Ross's and lesser snow geese from Canada's central arctic

Large increases in several populations of North American arctic geese have resulted in ecosystem-level effects from associated herbivory. Consequently, some breeding populations have shown density dependence in recruitment through declines in food availability. Differences in population trajectories of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens; hereafter snow geese) and Ross's geese (C. rossii) breeding in mixed-species colonies south of Queen Maud Gulf (QMG), in Canada's central arctic, suggest that density dependence may be limiting snow goose populations. Specifically, long-term declines in age ratios (immature:adult) of harvested snow geese may have resulted from declines in juvenile survival. Thus, we focused on juvenile (first-year) survival of snow and Ross's geese in relation to timing of reproduction (annual mean nest initiation date) and late summer weather. We banded Ross's and snow geese from 1991 to 2008 in the QMG Migratory Bird Sanctuary. We used age-structured mark-recapture models to estimate annual survival rates for adults and juveniles from recoveries of dead birds. Consistent with life history differences, juvenile snow geese survived at rates higher than juvenile Ross's geese. Juvenile survival of both species also was lower in late seasons, but was unrelated to arctic weather measured during a 17-day period after banding. We found no evidence of density dependence (i.e., a decline in juvenile survival over time) in either species. We also found no interspecific differences in age-specific hunting vulnerability, though juveniles were more vulnerable than adults in both species, as expected. Thus, interspecific differences in survival were unrelated to harvest. Lower survival of juvenile Ross's geese may result from natural migration mortality related to smaller body size (e.g., greater susceptibility to inclement weather or predation) compared to juvenile snow geese. Despite lower first-year survival, recruitment by Ross's geese may still be greater than that by snow geese because of earlier sexual maturity, greater breeding propensity, and higher nest success by Ross's geese. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Annual and seasonal survival of trumpeter swans in the upper midwest

The reintroduction of trumpeter swans to the north central United States appears to be a conservation success story. For the most part, population management goals have been met or exceeded. The population cannot be considered self-sustaining, however, because 90% of the swans migrate short distances to wintering sites where supplemental feeding occurs. The remaining 10% migrate longer distances to areas where adequate open water and forage occur naturally. To determine how these 2 different wintering habits might affect mortality, we used mark-resight data gathered between 2000 and 2008 to estimate and compare annual survival rates for long- and short-distance migrant swans marked in Wisconsin. Apparent annual survival rates were similar for long- (0.81, SE = 0.019) and short- (0.81, SE = 0.022) distant adult migrants but were higher for long-distance sub-adult (0.86, SE = 0.036) migrants than for short-distance sub-adult migrants (0.7, SE = 0.046). We also estimated seasonal survival of long-distance migrants to determine if the migratory periods are a time of high mortality. We found little evidence for seasonal variation in survival and estimates for both migratory and non-migratory seasons were very high (>0.97). Overall, the results suggest that little mortality occurs during migration and long-distance migrants are able to survive at rates at least equal to, but probably higher than, short-distance migrants. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Adult survival and reproductive rate are linked to habitat preference in territorial,year‐round resident Song Sparrows Melospiza melodia

Individual animal fitness can be strongly influenced by the ability to recognize habitat features which may be beneficial. Many studies focus on the effects of habitat on annual reproductive rate, even though adult survival is typically a greater influence on fitness and population growth in vertebrate species with intermediate to long lifespans. Understanding the effects of preferred habitat on individuals over the annual cycle is therefore necessary to predict its influences on individual fitness. This is particularly true in species that are resident and territorial year‐round in the temperate zone, which may face potential trade‐offs between habitat that maximizes reproduction and that which maximizes non‐breeding season (‘over‐winter’) survival. We used a 37‐year study of Song Sparrows Melospiza melodia residing territorially year‐round on a small island to examine what habitat features influenced adult over‐winter survival, how site‐specific variation in adult survival vs. annual reproductive rate influenced long‐term habitat preference, and if preferred sites on average conferred higher individual fitness. Habitat features such as area of shrub cover and exposure to intertidal coastline predicted adult over‐winter survival independent of individual age or sex, population size, or winter weather. Long‐term habitat preference (measured as occupation rate) was better predicted by site‐specific annual reproductive rate than by expected over‐winter survival, but preferred sites maximized fitness on average over the entire annual cycle,. Although adult over‐winter survival had a greater influence on population growth (λ) than did reproductive rate, the influence of reproductive rate on λ increased in preferred sites because site‐specific variation in reproductive rate was higher than variation in expected over‐winter survival. Because preferred habitats tended to have higher mean site‐specific reproductive and adult survival rates, territorial birds in this population do not appear to experience seasonal trade‐offs in preferred habitat but are predicted to incur substantial fitness costs of settling in less‐preferred sites.     

Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long‐term mark‐recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12–17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4–6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.