共查询到17条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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E. Hance Ellington Keith P. Lewis Erin L. Koen Eric Vander Wal 《Ecology and evolution》2020,10(15):8476-8505
Population monitoring is a critical part of effective wildlife management, but methods are prone to biases that can hinder our ability to accurately track changes in populations through time. Calf survival plays an important role in ungulate population dynamics and can be monitored using telemetry and herd composition surveys. These methods, however, are susceptible to unrepresentative sampling and violations of the assumption of equal detectability, respectively. Here, we capitalized on 55 herd‐wide estimates of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) calf survival in Newfoundland, Canada, using telemetry (n = 1,175 calves) and 249 herd‐wide estimates of calf:cow ratios (C:C) using herd composition surveys to investigate these potential biases. These data included 17 herd‐wide estimates replicated from both methods concurrently (n = 448 calves and n = 17 surveys) which we used to understand which processes and sampling biases contributed to disagreement between estimates of herd‐wide calf survival. We used Cox proportional hazards models to determine whether estimates of calf mortality risk were biased by the date a calf was collared. We also used linear mixed‐effects models to determine whether estimates of C:C ratios were biased by survey date and herd size. We found that calves collared later in the calving season had a higher mortality risk and that C:C tended to be higher for surveys conducted later in the autumn. When we used these relationships to modify estimates of herd‐wide calf survival derived from telemetry and herd composition surveys concurrently, we found that formerly disparate estimates of woodland caribou calf survival now overlapped (within a 95% confidence interval) in a majority of cases. Our case study highlights the potential of under‐appreciated biases to impact our understanding of population dynamics and suggests ways that managers can limit the influence of these biases in the two widely applied methods for estimating herd‐wide survival. 相似文献
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Radiotelemetry collars are frequently used to estimate demographic parameters of animals, such as annual survival and parturition rates. If animals are collared for multiple years and statistical adjustments are not made, these estimates can be biased by an unrepresentative age structure and individual variability of collared animals. To quantify the effects of different factors on the magnitude of these potential biases, we created a computer simulation of the female portion of a barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) herd and then randomly assigned collars to individuals within the simulated population. Under our default model, based on the Western Arctic Herd monitoring program, caribou were collared randomly from all females aged 2 years and over, and they remained collared for a mean of 7 years. Our simulations revealed that survival rates were underestimated by approximately 3.4% and parturition rates were overestimated by approximately 3.3%. The magnitude of these biases increased when individuals remained collared for longer periods. Increased individual variability in the population resulted in only small increases in survival and parturition rates. Because the magnitude of the bias increased steadily during the first years of the study, we found a substantial risk of incorrectly identifying a significant decline in survival in the first 7 years after marking. Including the number of years individual animals have been collared as a covariate in analyses can reduce the biases in demographic parameters and should be considered for inclusion in analyses when animal age is unknown. Actual survival rate estimates from telemetry data for the Western Arctic Herd were generally consistent with the results of these simulations. These potential biases should be considered when interpreting demographic parameters from multi-year collaring studies. © 2012 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT Population modeling exercises can lead to both expected and unexpected results useful for wildlife research and management, even though inferences must often be qualitative, given underlying assumptions. Our main objective was to use empirical data on wolf (Canis lupus) kill rates and growth of the Western Arctic caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herd (WAH) of Alaska, USA, to assess the potential for predator regulation. We used available data and published literature to construct a deterministic density-dependent population model fitted to trends of the WAH from 1976 through 2003. By increasing wolf densities in the baseline model, we failed to reject the hypothesis that wolves at a density of 6.5 wolves per 1,000 km2 could regulate a caribou herd at a density of 0.4 caribou per km2. In addition, our model may be conservative by underestimating the regulatory potential of wolves. We suggest that this relatively simple predator-preysystem shows signs of a predation—food 2-state model. Elasticities from matrix models may be deceiving. Although herd growth is most sensitive to changes in adult female survival, survival of younger cohorts may be more easily influenced by natural conditions or management action. Management of the WAH near maximum sustained yield may not be attainable if desired, but modeling exercises such as this elucidate options. In conducting this research, we also discovered by Monte Carlo simulation that survival and productivity data from radiocollared females and calves were negatively biased and failed to predict herd growth. Thus, researchers should consider potential effects of neck collars on vital rates of female tundra caribou and concomitant offspring when using sample data to model population dynamics or test hypotheses. 相似文献
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1. Large-scale habitat loss is frequently identified with loss of biodiversity, but examples of the direct effect of habitat alterations on changes in vital rates remain rare. Quantifying and understanding the relationship between habitat composition and changes in vital rates, however, is essential for the development of effective conservation strategies. 2. It has been suggested that the decline of woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations in North America is precipitated by timber harvesting that creates landscapes of early seral forests. Such habitat changes have altered the predator-prey system resulting in asymmetric predation, where predators are maintained by alternative prey (i.e. apparent competition). However, a direct link between habitat condition and caribou population declines has not been documented. 3. We estimated survival probabilities for the threatened arboreal lichen-feeding ecotype of woodland caribou in British Columbia, Canada, at two different spatial scales. At the broader scale, observed variation in adult female survival rates among 10 distinct populations (range = 0.67-0.93) was best explained by variation in the amount of early seral stands within population ranges and population density. At the finer scale, home ranges of caribou killed by predators had lower proportions of old forest and more mid-aged forest as compared with multi-annual home ranges where caribou were alive. 4. These results are consistent with predictions from the apparent competition hypothesis and quantify direct fitness consequences for caribou following habitat alterations. We conclude that apparent competition can cause rapid population declines and even extinction where changes in species composition occur following large scale habitat change. 相似文献
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Véronique Pinard Christian Dussault Jean-Pierre Ouellet Daniel Fortin Réhaume Courtois 《The Journal of wildlife management》2012,76(1):189-199
Logging negatively affects the threatened forest-dwelling caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) through its positive effects on large predator populations. As recruitment is a key component of caribou population growth rate, we assessed calving rates of females and calf survival rates during the most critical period for calf survival, the calving period. We also identified causes of calf mortality and investigated the influence of predation risk, food availability, and human disturbance on habitat selection of females during the calving period at both the home-range and forest stand scales. We hypothesized that caribou should display habitat selection patterns to reduce predation risk at both scales. Using telemetry, we followed 22 females and their calves from 2004 to 2007 in a highly managed study area in Québec, Canada. Most females (78.5 ± 0.05 [SE]) gave birth each year, but only 46.3 ± 8.0% of the calves survived during the first 50 days following birth, and 57.3 ± 14.9% of them died from black bear (Ursus americanus) predation. At the home-range scale, caribou selected calving areas located at upper slope positions and avoided high road density areas. Surprisingly, they also selected the forested habitat type having the lowest lateral cover (mixed and deciduous stands) while avoiding the highest cover (regenerating conifer stands). At the forest stand scale, caribou selected areas located at relatively high elevations and with a lower basal area of black spruce trees. The selection of upper slope positions likely favored spatial segregation between calving females and wolves (Canis lupus) but not black bear. Our results suggest that calving females used areas from which they could visually detect approaching predators. While wolf avoidance appeared to be effective in a highly managed landscape, caribou did not appear to have adjusted their predator avoidance strategy to the recent increase in black bear abundance, who have benefited from increased food abundance. This situation requires focused attention from wildlife managers as logging activities are progressing towards the north within the core of forest-dwelling caribou range. © 2011 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
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Le Galliard JF Fitze PS Cote J Massot M Clobert J 《Journal of evolutionary biology》2005,18(6):1455-1463
Sex allocation theory predicts that facultative maternal investment in the rare sex should be favoured by natural selection when breeders experience predictable variation in adult sex ratios (ASRs). We found significant spatial and predictable interannual changes in local ASRs within a natural population of the common lizard where the mean ASR is female-biased, thus validating the key assumptions of adaptive sex ratio models. We tested for facultative maternal investment in the rare sex during and after an experimental perturbation of the ASR by creating populations with female-biased or male-biased ASR. Mothers did not adjust their clutch sex ratio during or after the ASR perturbation, but produced sons with a higher body condition in male-biased populations. However, this differential sex allocation did not result in growth or survival differences in offspring. Our results thus contradict the predictions of adaptive models and challenge the idea that facultative investment in the rare sex might be a mechanism regulating the population sex ratio. 相似文献
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Mnica Arso Civil Barbara Cheney Nicola J. Quick Valentina Islas‐Villanueva Jeff A. Graves Vincent M. Janik Paul M. Thompson Philip S. Hammond 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(1):533-544
Understanding the drivers underlying fluctuations in the size of animal populations is central to ecology, conservation biology, and wildlife management. Reliable estimates of survival probabilities are key to population viability assessments, and patterns of variation in survival can help inferring the causal factors behind detected changes in population size. We investigated whether variation in age‐ and sex‐specific survival probabilities could help explain the increasing trend in population size detected in a small, discrete population of bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus off the east coast of Scotland. To estimate annual survival probabilities, we applied capture–recapture models to photoidentification data collected from 1989 to 2015. We used robust design models accounting for temporary emigration to estimate juvenile and adult survival, multistate models to estimate sex‐specific survival, and age models to estimate calf survival. We found strong support for an increase in juvenile/adult annual survival from 93.1% to 96.0% over the study period, most likely caused by a change in juvenile survival. Examination of sex‐specific variation showed weaker support for this trend being a result of increasing female survival, which was overall higher than for males and animals of unknown sex. Calf survival was lower in the first than second year; a bias in estimating third‐year survival will likely exist in similar studies. There was some support first‐born calf survival being lower than for calves born subsequently. Coastal marine mammal populations are subject to the impacts of environmental change, increasing anthropogenic disturbance and the effects of management measures. Survival estimates are essential to improve our understanding of population dynamics and help predict how future pressures may impact populations, but obtaining robust information on the life history of long‐lived species is challenging. Our study illustrates how knowledge of survival can be increased by applying a robust analytical framework to photoidentification data. 相似文献
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1. Here we examine how sex ratio variation in house sparrow broods interacts with other demographic traits and parental characteristics to improve the understanding of adaptive significance and demographic effects on variation in sex ratio. 2. The sex ratio in complete broods did not deviate significantly from parity (54.9% males). 3. There was sex-specific seasonal variation in the probability of recruitment. Male nestlings that hatched late in the breeding season had larger probability of surviving than early hatched males. 4. An adaptive adjustment of sex ratio should favour production of an excess of males late in the breeding season. Accordingly, the proportion of male offspring increased throughout the breeding season. 5. A significant nonlinear relationship was present between sex ratio and age of the female. However, there was no relationship between parental phenotype and standardized hatch day that could explain the observed seasonal change in sex ratio. 6. The sex-specific number of offspring recruited by a pair to subsequent generations was closely related to the brood sex ratio. 7. These results indicate an adaptive adjustment of sex ratio to seasonal variation in environmental conditions that affects the offspring fitness of the two sexes differently. Our results also suggest that such a sex ratio variation can strongly influence the demography and structural composition of small passerine populations. 相似文献
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Mothers that experience different individual or environmental conditions may produce different proportions of male to female offspring. The Trivers‐Willard hypothesis, for instance, suggests that mothers with different qualities (size, health, etc.) will use different sex ratios if maternal quality differentially affects sex‐specific reproductive success. Condition‐dependent, or facultative, sex ratio strategies like these allow multiple sex ratios to coexist within a population. They also create complex population structure due to the presence of multiple maternal conditions. As a result, modeling facultative sex ratio evolution requires not only sex ratio strategies with multiple components, but also two‐sex population models with explicit stage structure. To this end, we combine nonlinear, frequency‐dependent matrix models and multidimensional adaptive dynamics to create a new framework for studying sex ratio evolution. We illustrate the applications of this framework with two case studies where the sex ratios depend one of two possible maternal conditions (age or quality). In these cases, we identify evolutionarily singular sex ratio strategies, find instances where one maternal condition produces exclusively male or female offspring, and show that sex ratio biases depend on the relative reproductive value ratios for each sex. 相似文献
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Joseph Yarkovich Joseph D. Clark Jennifer L. Murrow 《The Journal of wildlife management》2011,75(5):1145-1154
Previous research from 2001 to 2006 on an experimentally released elk (Cervus elaphus) population at Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP or Park) indicated that calf recruitment (i.e., calves reaching 1 yr of age per adult female elk) was low (0.306, total SE = 0.090) resulting in low or negative population growth (λ = 0.996, 95% CI = 0.945–1.047). Black bear (Ursus americanus) predation was the primary calf mortality factor. From 2006 to 2008, we trapped and relocated 49 bears (30 of which were radiocollared) from the primary calving areas in the Park and radiomonitored 67 (28 M:39 F) adult elk and 42 calves to compare vital rates and population growth with the earlier study. A model with annual calf recruitment rate correlating with the number of bears relocated each year was supported (ΔAICc = 0.000; β = 0.070, 95% CI = 0.028–0.112) and a model with annual calf recruitment differing from before to during bear relocation revealed an increase to 0.544 (total SE = 0.098; β = −1.092, 95% CI = −1.180 to −0.375). Using vital rates and estimates of process standard errors observed during our study, 25-yr simulations maintained a mean positive growth rate in 100% of the stochastic trials with λ averaging 1.118 (95% CI = 1.096–1.140), an increase compared with rates before bear relocation. A life table response experiment revealed that increases in population growth were mostly (67.1%) due to changes in calf recruitment. We speculate that behavioral adaptation of the elk since release also contributed to the observed increases in recruitment and population growth. Our results suggest that managers interested in elk reintroduction within bear range should consider bear relocation as a temporary means of increasing calf recruitment. © 2011 The Wildlife Society. 相似文献
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CHAD J. BISHOP JAMES W. UNSWORTH EDWARD O. GARTON 《The Journal of wildlife management》2005,69(1):311-321
Abstract: We investigated survival and cause-specific mortality of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) on 3 distinct winter ranges in southwest Idaho from 1992 to 1997 to identify demographic variation and potential limiting factors based on a sample of 447 radiocollared deer. During winters 1995–1996 and 1996–1997, we modeled overwinter fawn mortality based on early winter mass, sex, activity, and habitat use variables. Annual survival rates of adult mule deer varied among the 3 adjacent study areas (χ22 = 10.93, P = 0.004). Overwinter deer survival also varied among study areas (χ22 = 8.00, P = 0.018), and the study area X year, study area X sex, and study area X age interactions were all significant (P ≤ 0.018). Overwinter survival differences among the study areas were not consistent over time or among sexes and ages of deer. Winter malnutrition was the main cause of mortality for both adults and fawns during the severe winter of 1992–1993, when overall survival was low. Excluding harvest, predation was the major proximate cause of deer mortality during 1993–97 when overall survival was higher. The probability of winter fawn mortality increased with lower mass (χ21 = 7.38, P = 0.007), being male (χ21 = 5.61, P = 0.018), smaller group sizes (χ21 = 3.62, P = 0.057), and using steeper slopes (χ21 = 3.05, P = 0.081). Smaller group sizes and use of steep slopes corresponded to conditions where predators were more successful. Our findings suggest that coyote (Canis latrans) predation was largely compensatory whereas mountain lion (Puma concolor) predation was apparently independent of animal condition and dependent more on deer habitat use. Early winter fawn mass was a better predictor of overwinter fawn survival than a suite of winter resource use variables, lending further support for use of fawn mass to predict winters where fawn mortality may be high. No single population in this study could be used to make reliable inferences regarding deer survival in the other populations. Survival rate measurements should be used cautiously to make inferences in populations where survival has not been directly measured. 相似文献
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Fitness consequences of early-life environmental conditions are often sex-specific, but corresponding evidence for invertebrates remains inconclusive. Here, we use meta-analysis to evaluate sex-specific sensitivity to larval nutritional conditions in insects. Using literature-derived data for 85 species with broad phylogenetic and ecological coverage, we show that females are generally more sensitive to food stress than males. Stressful nutritional conditions during larval development typically lead to female-biased mortality and thus increasingly male-biased sex ratios of emerging adults. We further demonstrate that the general trend of higher sensitivity to food stress in females can primarily be attributed to their typically larger body size in insects and hence higher energy needs during development. By contrast, there is no consistent evidence of sex-biased sensitivity in sexually size-monomorphic species. Drawing conclusions regarding sex-biased sensitivity in species with male-biased size dimorphism remains to wait for the accumulation of relevant data. Our results suggest that environmental conditions leading to elevated juvenile mortality may potentially affect the performance of insect populations further by reducing the proportion of females among individuals reaching reproductive age. Accounting for sex-biased mortality is therefore essential to understanding the dynamics and demography of insect populations, not least importantly in the context of ongoing insect declines. 相似文献
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Briët OJ 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2002,16(1):22-27
Abstract A simple age‐structured exponential growth model is presented for the analysis of the population dynamics of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae). In this model, the proportion of parous mosquitoes R depends on the birth rate β, and the length of the first gonotrophic cycle g, but not on the mortality rate. If the age structure is fairly constant, R= exp(– βg). Extensions of the model correcting for feeding patterns are given. A simple method is applied to an example of Anopheles gambiae Giles biting density and parity ratio in Côte d'Ivoire (fortnightly sampled longitudinal data set), for calculation of the seasonally fluctuating mortality rate, correcting for effects of recruitment. The seasonal variations in birth rate and mortality rate are discussed in relation to variations in density and rainfall. 相似文献
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NATHAN H. NAZDROWICZ JACOB L. BOWMAN ROLAND R. ROTH 《The Journal of wildlife management》2008,72(3):745-753
Abstract: In the mid-Atlantic region, urban sprawl and development have resulted in habitat alterations and fragmentation; however, the effects on eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina) populations are unclear. To investigate the status of eastern box turtle populations in a fragmented landscape, we used mark—recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate population density, sex ratio, age structure, and survival on 4 study areas with differing degrees of isolation and human disturbance in northern New Castle County, Delaware, USA. We estimated adult population densities ranging from 0.81 turtles/ha to 3.62 turtles/ha among our 4 study areas. Sex ratios were male-biased at 2 study areas and balanced at 2 study areas. Proportion of juveniles ranged from 0% to 31%. Estimated annual survival rate ranged from 0.813 to 0.977. Mortality of radiotagged and marked turtles was primarily due to natural causes, but mowing was the primary cause of human-induced mortality. We found evidence of population decline at one study area due to low survival and recruitment. Human disturbances, isolation, and habitat composition appear to have the greatest influence on the box turtle populations we studied. To minimize mortality from human disturbance, we suggest planting crops adjacent to forest habitat that require no mowing or mowing at a height ≥15 cm. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):745–753; 2008) 相似文献
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For many species of reptile, crucial demographic parameters such as embryonic survival and individual sex (male or female) depend on ambient temperature during incubation. While much has been made of the role of climate on offspring sex ratios in species with temperature‐dependent sex determination (TSD), the impact of variable sex ratio on populations is likely to depend on how limiting male numbers are to female fecundity in female‐biased populations, and whether a climatic effect on embryonic survival overwhelms or interacts with sex ratio. To examine the sensitivity of populations to these interacting factors, we developed a generalized model to explore the effects of embryonic survival, hatchling sex ratio, and the interaction between these, on population size and persistence while varying the levels of male limitation. Populations with TSD reached a greater maximum number of females compared to populations with GSD, although this was often associated with a narrower range of persistence. When survival depended on temperature, TSD populations persisted over a greater range of temperatures than GSD populations. This benefit of TSD was greatly reduced by even modest male limitation, indicating very strong importance of this largely unmeasured biologic factor. Finally, when males were not limiting, a steep relationship between sex ratio and temperature favoured population persistence across a wider range of climates compared to the shallower relationships. The opposite was true when males were limiting – shallow relationships between sex ratio and temperature allowed greater persistence. The results highlight that, if we are to predict the response of populations with TSD to climate change, it is imperative to 1) accurately quantify the extent to which male abundance limits female fecundity, and 2) measure how sex ratios and peak survival coincide over climate. 相似文献