Modeling the Western Arctic Caribou Herd During a Positive Growth Phase: Potential Effects of Wolves and Radiocollars

ABSTRACT Population modeling exercises can lead to both expected and unexpected results useful for wildlife research and management, even though inferences must often be qualitative, given underlying assumptions. Our main objective was to use empirical data on wolf (Canis lupus) kill rates and growth of the Western Arctic caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herd (WAH) of Alaska, USA, to assess the potential for predator regulation. We used available data and published literature to construct a deterministic density-dependent population model fitted to trends of the WAH from 1976 through 2003. By increasing wolf densities in the baseline model, we failed to reject the hypothesis that wolves at a density of 6.5 wolves per 1,000 km² could regulate a caribou herd at a density of 0.4 caribou per km². In addition, our model may be conservative by underestimating the regulatory potential of wolves. We suggest that this relatively simple predator-preysystem shows signs of a predation—food 2-state model. Elasticities from matrix models may be deceiving. Although herd growth is most sensitive to changes in adult female survival, survival of younger cohorts may be more easily influenced by natural conditions or management action. Management of the WAH near maximum sustained yield may not be attainable if desired, but modeling exercises such as this elucidate options. In conducting this research, we also discovered by Monte Carlo simulation that survival and productivity data from radiocollared females and calves were negatively biased and failed to predict herd growth. Thus, researchers should consider potential effects of neck collars on vital rates of female tundra caribou and concomitant offspring when using sample data to model population dynamics or test hypotheses.     

Changes in landscape composition influence the decline of a threatened woodland caribou population

1. Large-scale habitat loss is frequently identified with loss of biodiversity, but examples of the direct effect of habitat alterations on changes in vital rates remain rare. Quantifying and understanding the relationship between habitat composition and changes in vital rates, however, is essential for the development of effective conservation strategies. 2. It has been suggested that the decline of woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations in North America is precipitated by timber harvesting that creates landscapes of early seral forests. Such habitat changes have altered the predator-prey system resulting in asymmetric predation, where predators are maintained by alternative prey (i.e. apparent competition). However, a direct link between habitat condition and caribou population declines has not been documented. 3. We estimated survival probabilities for the threatened arboreal lichen-feeding ecotype of woodland caribou in British Columbia, Canada, at two different spatial scales. At the broader scale, observed variation in adult female survival rates among 10 distinct populations (range = 0.67-0.93) was best explained by variation in the amount of early seral stands within population ranges and population density. At the finer scale, home ranges of caribou killed by predators had lower proportions of old forest and more mid-aged forest as compared with multi-annual home ranges where caribou were alive. 4. These results are consistent with predictions from the apparent competition hypothesis and quantify direct fitness consequences for caribou following habitat alterations. We conclude that apparent competition can cause rapid population declines and even extinction where changes in species composition occur following large scale habitat change.     

Female common lizards (Lacerta vivipara) do not adjust their sex-biased investment in relation to the adult sex ratio

Sex allocation theory predicts that facultative maternal investment in the rare sex should be favoured by natural selection when breeders experience predictable variation in adult sex ratios (ASRs). We found significant spatial and predictable interannual changes in local ASRs within a natural population of the common lizard where the mean ASR is female-biased, thus validating the key assumptions of adaptive sex ratio models. We tested for facultative maternal investment in the rare sex during and after an experimental perturbation of the ASR by creating populations with female-biased or male-biased ASR. Mothers did not adjust their clutch sex ratio during or after the ASR perturbation, but produced sons with a higher body condition in male-biased populations. However, this differential sex allocation did not result in growth or survival differences in offspring. Our results thus contradict the predictions of adaptive models and challenge the idea that facultative investment in the rare sex might be a mechanism regulating the population sex ratio.     

Maternal allocation strategies and differential effects of yolk carotenoids on the phenotype and viability of yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis) chicks in relation to sex and laying order

Egg quality may mediate maternal allocation strategies according to progeny sex. In vertebrates, carotenoids have important physiological roles during embryonic and post-natal life, but the consequences of variation in yolk carotenoids for offspring phenotype in oviparous species are largely unknown. In yellow-legged gulls, yolk carotenoids did not vary with embryo sex in combination with egg laying date, order and mass. Yolk lutein supplementation enhanced the growth of sons from first eggs but depressed that of sons from last eggs, enhanced survival of daughters late in the season, and promoted immunity of male chicks and chicks from small eggs. Lack of variation in egg carotenoids in relation to sex and egg features, and the contrasting effects of lutein on sons and daughters, do not support the hypothesis of optimal sex-related egg carotenoid allocation. Carotenoids transferred to the eggs may rather result from a trade-off between opposing effects on sons or daughters.     

Survival and Cause-Specific Mortality of Male Mule Deer Under Different Hunting Regulations in the Bridger Mountains,Montana

Abstract: We selected 2 adjacent populations of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus hemionus) in the Bridger Mountains, Montana, USA, to measure effects on survival rates and causes of mortality of 2 hunting regulations designed to enhance representation of mature males. We compared male survival between the West Slope and South 16 Mile populations considering both hunting and nonhunting sources of mortality with respect to age (fawn, yearling, and mature), month (Jun-May), and year (1990-1995). Harvest rates of mature males were greater than for yearlings, demonstrating hunter preferences. We found no differences in yearling monthly survival rates between October and November or between areas or years. In contrast, we found survival of mature males differed between October and November and across years and study areas. During these months, survival rates of mature males averaged 0.602 on the West Slope under the 2-point regulation and 0.762 on South 16 Mile under the outfitted hunt. Monthly survival during summer also differed by age class, but not area, with estimates of 0.963 for yearling males, and corresponding mature male survival estimates of 0.991, demonstrating greater yearling summer mortality. Winter survival rates of yearlings and matures were similar for both areas with a monthly estimate of 0.986. We found differences in spring monthly survival estimates for the 2 areas, mainly for matures. Yearling male monthly survival estimates were 0.959 and 0.958 for the 2 areas, whereas corresponding mature male estimates during spring were 0.991 and 0.936 on the West Slope and South 16 Mile, respectively. Fawn survival rates varied from 0.101 to 0.770 among years and between areas overwinter. Cumulative effects of nonhunting mortality among all age classes reduced the effectiveness of 2 hunting regulations designed to enhance survival of males to age classes ≥4 years associated with maximum antler development despite accomplishing reductions in harvest rates. Low and variable fawn survival and relatively high nonhunting-related losses of yearling and mature males might be typical of many populations in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Deer managers should avoid populations coexisting with a diversity of large predators in environments with strong year effects when considering opportunities for implementing harvest regulations to improve representation of mature males.     

Population Ecology of the Eastern Box Turtle in a Fragmented Landscape

Abstract: In the mid-Atlantic region, urban sprawl and development have resulted in habitat alterations and fragmentation; however, the effects on eastern box turtle (Terrapene carolina carolina) populations are unclear. To investigate the status of eastern box turtle populations in a fragmented landscape, we used mark—recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate population density, sex ratio, age structure, and survival on 4 study areas with differing degrees of isolation and human disturbance in northern New Castle County, Delaware, USA. We estimated adult population densities ranging from 0.81 turtles/ha to 3.62 turtles/ha among our 4 study areas. Sex ratios were male-biased at 2 study areas and balanced at 2 study areas. Proportion of juveniles ranged from 0% to 31%. Estimated annual survival rate ranged from 0.813 to 0.977. Mortality of radiotagged and marked turtles was primarily due to natural causes, but mowing was the primary cause of human-induced mortality. We found evidence of population decline at one study area due to low survival and recruitment. Human disturbances, isolation, and habitat composition appear to have the greatest influence on the box turtle populations we studied. To minimize mortality from human disturbance, we suggest planting crops adjacent to forest habitat that require no mowing or mowing at a height ≥15 cm. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):745–753; 2008)