Integrated population model reveals that kestrels breeding in nest boxes operate as a source population

The identification of the source–sink status of a population is critical for the establishment of conservation plans and enacting smart management decisions. We developed an integrated population model to formally assess the source status of a kestrel Falco tinnunculus population breeding in nest boxes in Switzerland. We estimated juvenile and adult survival, reproduction and net dispersal (emigration/immigration) by jointly analyzing capture–recapture, dead recovery, breeding monitoring and population survey data. We also investigated the role of nest boxes on kestrel demography and assessed the contributions of vital rates to realized population growth rates. The results indicate that the kestrel population breeding in nest boxes has acted as a source over the 15 years of the study duration. A quantitative approach suggests that a substantial number of individuals have emigrated annually from this population likely affecting the population dynamics outside the management area. Variation in fecundity explained 34% of the temporal variability of the population growth rate. Moreover, a literature review suggests that kestrel pairs produce on average 1.4 chicks more per breeding attempt in nest boxes compared to natural open nests. Together, these findings suggest that fecundity was an important driver for the dynamics of this population and that nest boxes have contributed to its raise. Nest boxes are regularly used as an efficient tool for conservation management. We suggest that such a conservation action can result in the establishment of a source population being beneficial for populations both inside and outside the managed area.     

Genome-wide signatures of population bottlenecks and diversifying selection in European wolves

Genomic resources developed for domesticated species provide powerful tools for studying the evolutionary history of their wild relatives. Here we use 61K single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) evenly spaced throughout the canine nuclear genome to analyse evolutionary relationships among the three largest European populations of grey wolves in comparison with other populations worldwide, and investigate genome-wide effects of demographic bottlenecks and signatures of selection. European wolves have a discontinuous range, with large and connected populations in Eastern Europe and relatively smaller, isolated populations in Italy and the Iberian Peninsula. Our results suggest a continuous decline in wolf numbers in Europe since the Late Pleistocene, and long-term isolation and bottlenecks in the Italian and Iberian populations following their divergence from the Eastern European population. The Italian and Iberian populations have low genetic variability and high linkage disequilibrium, but relatively few autozygous segments across the genome. This last characteristic clearly distinguishes them from populations that underwent recent drastic demographic declines or founder events, and implies long-term bottlenecks in these two populations. Although genetic drift due to spatial isolation and bottlenecks seems to be a major evolutionary force diversifying the European populations, we detected 35 loci that are putatively under diversifying selection. Two of these loci flank the canine platelet-derived growth factor gene, which affects bone growth and may influence differences in body size between wolf populations. This study demonstrates the power of population genomics for identifying genetic signals of demographic bottlenecks and detecting signatures of directional selection in bottlenecked populations, despite their low background variability.     

Sandhill Crane Abundance and Nesting Ecology at Grays Lake,Idaho

Abstract: We examined population size and factors influencing nest survival of greater sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis tabida) at Grays Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Idaho, USA, during 1997–2000. Average local population of cranes from late April to early May, 1998–2000, was 735 cranes, 34% higher than that reported for May 1970–1971. We estimated 228 (SE = 30) nests in the basin core (excluding renests), 14% higher than a 1971 estimate. Apparent nest success in our study (x̄ = 60%, n = 519 nests) was lower than reported for Grays Lake 30–50 years earlier. Daily survival rates (DSRs) of all nests averaged 0.9707 (41.2%). The best model explaining nest survival included year and water depth and their interaction. Nest survival was highest (DSR = 0.9827) in 1998 compared with other years (0.9698-0.9707). Nest survival changed little relative to water depth in 1998, when flooding was extensive and alternative prey (microtines) irrupted, but declined markedly with lower water levels in 2000, the driest year studied. Hypotheses relating nest survival to vegetation height, land use (idle, summer grazing, fall grazing), and date were not supported. In a before-after-control-impact design using 12 experimental fields, nest survival differed among years but not among management treatments (idle, fall graze, fall burn, and summer—graze—idle rotation), nor was there an interaction between year and treatments. However, DSRs in fall-burn fields declined from 0.9781 in 1997–1998 to 0.9503 in 1999–2000 (posttreatment). Changes in the predator community have likely contributed to declines in nest success since the 1950s and 1970s. Our results did not support earlier concerns about effects of habitat management practices on crane productivity. Nest survival could best be enhanced by managing spring water levels. Managers should continue censuses during late April to evaluate long-term relationships to habitat conditions and management.     

Genetics and conservation of wolves Canis lupus in Europe

• 1 The wolf Canis lupus, the most widespread of the four species of large carnivores in Europe, after centuries of population decline and eradication, is now recovering in many countries. Wolves contribute to regulating prey–predator dynamics and interact with human activities, mainly livestock farming and ungulate hunting. Although wolves are protected in most European countries, illegal or incidental killing is widespread.
• 2 Wolf populations do not show any apparent phylogeographic structuring worldwide. Molecular and morphological studies of historical samples showed evidence of wolf ecomorph extinctions, coinciding with the great Pleistocene faunal turnover.
• 3 Extant populations show recurrent long‐range dispersal during cycles of expansion and recolonization. Demographically stable populations, in contrast, seem to be characterized by very limited gene flow.
• 4 Despite the potential for dispersal and ecological flexibility, landscape genetic approaches have demonstrated the existence of genetically distinct wolf populations, which originated through habitat and prey specializations.
• 5 Small isolated wolf populations may suffer from inbreeding depression, although selection for heterozygotes and the rescue effect can foster rapid population recovery. Population structure and dynamics is efficiently monitored by non‐invasive genetic methods, which are also useful to identify wolf × dogCanis lupus familiaris hybridization.
• 6 Despite technical advances and a better knowledge of wolf biology, wolf conservation is largely dependent on humans, and on the solution of conflicts with stakeholders.

     

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears (Ursus arctos), using three common data types for bear (U. spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture–mark–recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations’ management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.     

Evidence of genetic distinction and long-term population decline in wolves (Canis lupus) in the Italian Apennines

Historical information suggests the occurrence of an extensive human-caused contraction in the distribution range of wolves (Canis lupus) during the last few centuries in Europe. Wolves disappeared from the Alps in the 1920s, and thereafter continued to decline in peninsular Italy until the 1970s, when approximately 100 individuals survived, isolated in the central Apennines. In this study we performed a coalescent analysis of multilocus DNA markers to infer patterns and timing of historical population changes in wolves surviving in the Apennines. This population showed a unique mitochondrial DNA control-region haplotype, the absence of private alleles and lower heterozygosity at microsatellite loci, as compared to other wolf populations. Multivariate, clustering and Bayesian assignment procedures consistently assigned all the wolf genotypes sampled in Italy to a single group, supporting their genetic distinction. Bottleneck tests showed evidences of population decline in the Italian wolves, but not in other populations. Results of a Bayesian coalescent model indicate that wolves in Italy underwent a 100- to 1000-fold population contraction over the past 2000-10,000 years. The population decline was stronger and longer in peninsular Italy than elsewhere in Europe, suggesting that wolves have apparently been genetically isolated for thousands of generations south of the Alps. Ice caps covering the Alps at the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 18,000 years before present), and the wide expansion of the Po River, which cut the alluvial plains throughout the Holocene, might have provided effective geographical barriers to wolf dispersal. More recently, the admixture of Alpine and Apennine wolf populations could have been prevented by deforestation, which was already widespread in the fifteenth century in northern Italy. This study suggests that, despite the high potential rates of dispersal and gene flow, local wolf populations may not have mixed for long periods of time.     

棉花氮肥和水分运筹的动态知识模型

通过分析和提炼棉花氮肥运筹和水分管理的最新研究资料,在综合考虑气候条件、土壤理化性质、产量目标、品种特性等影响因子的基础上,根据养分平衡原理和水分需求规律,建立了棉花氮肥和水分运筹的动态知识模型．模型可用于精确定量不同环境和不同产量目标下的氮肥和水分需求总量及其在不同生育时期的分配比例等．利用不同生态点、不同品种、不同土壤类型和不同产量目标等资料对氮肥和水分运筹知识模型进行了验证．结果表明模型具有较好的决策性和适应性．     

二化螟种群动态及管理研究进展

本文综述了二化螟种群消长规律、性诱剂研究与应用、抗药性及综合治理的研究概况 ,并对如何提高科学治理二化螟水平作了展望     

Effects of wolf pack size and winter conditions on elk mortality

Elk (Cervus canadensis) are high-profile game animals for many states in the western United States, yet over the past several decades some populations have experienced a persistent and broad-scale decline in recruitment. Over this same period, gray wolves (Canis lupus) have become an integral component of many western landscapes and agencies are increasingly challenged to maximize hunting opportunities of ungulates via predator management while simultaneously ensuring wolf conservation. To better understand the implications of predator management on elk populations, we monitored survival of 1,244 adult female elk and 806 6-month-old calves from 29 populations distributed throughout Idaho, USA, from 2004 to 2016. We developed predictive models of mortality that related mortality risk to wolf pack size, winter conditions, and individual-level characteristics. Annual mortality rates (excluding harvest) for adult females and calves were 0.09 and 0.40, respectively. Calf mortality was predicted best with a model that included additive effects of chest girth at time of capture, mean size of surrounding wolf packs, and snow depth. Adult female mortality was predicted best with a model that included female age, mean size of surrounding wolf packs, and snow depth. Based on a sensitivity analysis, chest girth had the largest effect on risk of mortality for calves followed by pack size and snow depth. Other than the effect of senescence in the oldest (>15 yr) individuals, pack size and snow depth had the largest effect on risk of mortality for adult females. We estimated cause-specific mortality and predation was the dominant cause of known-fate mortalities for adult females (35% mountain lion [Puma concolor] and 32% wolf) and calves (45% mountain lion and 28% wolf), whereas malnutrition accounted for 9% and 10% of adult female and calf mortalities, respectively. Wolves preferentially selected smaller calves and older adult females, whereas mountain lions showed little preference for calf size or age class of adult females. Our study indicates managers can increase elk survival by reducing wolf pack sizes on surrounding winter ranges, especially in areas where, or during years when, snow is deep. Additionally, managers interested in improving over-winter calf survival can implement actions to increase the size of calves entering winter by increasing the nutritional quality of summer and early fall forage resources. Although our study was prompted by management questions related to wolves, mountain lions killed more elk than wolves and differences in selection of individual elk indicate mountain lions may have comparably more of an effect on elk population dynamics. Although we were unable to relate changes in mountain lion populations to elk survival in our study, future research should seek a better understanding of multi-predator systems, including how management of one predator affect others and ultimately how these interactions affect elk survival. © 2019 The Wildlife Society     

Ecological factors influence population genetic structure of European grey wolves

Although the mechanisms controlling gene flow among populations are particularly important for evolutionary processes, they are still poorly understood, especially in the case of large carnivoran mammals with extensive continuous distributions. We studied the question of factors affecting population genetic structure in the grey wolf, Canis lupus, one of the most mobile terrestrial carnivores. We analysed variability in mitochondrial DNA and 14 microsatellite loci for a sample of 643 individuals from 59 localities representing most of the continuous wolf range in Eastern Europe. We tested an array of geographical, historical and ecological factors to check whether they may explain genetic differentiation among local wolf populations. We showed that wolf populations in Eastern Europe displayed nonrandom spatial genetic structure in the absence of obvious physical barriers to movement. Neither topographic barriers nor past fragmentation could explain spatial genetic structure. However, we found that the genetic differentiation among local populations was correlated with climate, habitat types, and wolf diet composition. This result shows that ecological processes may strongly influence the amount of gene flow among populations. We suggest natal-habitat-biased dispersal as an underlying mechanism linking population ecology with population genetic structure.     

An integrated population model sheds light on the complex population dynamics of a unique colonial breeder

Climate models forecast increasing climatic variation and more extreme events, which could increase the variability in animal demographic rates. More variable demographic rates generally lead to lower population growth and can be detrimental to wild populations, especially if the particular demographic rates affected are those to which population growth is most sensitive. We investigated the population dynamics of a metapopulation of 25 colonies of a semi-arid bird species, the sociable weaver Philetairus socius, and how it was influenced by seasonal weather during 1993–2014. We constructed an integrated population model which estimated population sizes similar to observed population counts, and allowed us to estimate annual fecundity and recruitment. Variance in fecundity contributed most to variance in population growth, which showed no trend over time. No weather variables explained overall demographic variation at the population level. However, a separate analysis of the largest colony showed a clear decline with a high extinction probability (0.05 to 0.33) within 5 years after the study period. In this colony, juvenile survival was lower when summers were hot, and adult survival was lower when winters were cold. Rainfall was also negatively correlated with adult survival. These weather effects could be due to increased physiological demands of thermoregulation and rainfall-induced breeding activity. Our results suggest that the dynamics of the population on the whole are buffered against current weather variation, as individual colonies apparently react in different ways. However, if more and increasingly extreme weather events synchronize colony dynamics, they are likely to have negative effects.     

A Simulation model for the arrowhead scale (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) population dynamics on citrus trees in relation to pest-management programs

1. A mathematical model was constructed describing population dynamics of the arrowhead scale, Unaspis yanonensis Kuwana. The population occurrence patterns simulated by the model from 1971 to 1976 were relatively consistent with the actual findings in the field.
2. The effects of control tactics for this pest were examined on the basis of the model.
3. Effective timing of insecticide (petroleum oil and organophosphorous insecticide) application was indicated to be 40 days after the initial appearance of 1st-instar nymphs in both the 1st and 2nd generations of the host.
4. The number of overwintering adult females in May of the next year (i.e., the starting point of the next year's population) decreased linearly with the increment in the degree of insecticide coverage. The pest populations were expected to be kept to low densities by petroleum oil sprays alone for the 1st generation when overall, complete coverage was accomplished.
5. Examination of the effects of two introduced parasitoids, Aphytis yanonensis and Coccobius fulvus, showed that they were able to control the scale population by themselves when more than 70% parasitism was achieved. When petroleum oil was applied to overwintering adults (termed winter petroleum oil) at the degree of coverage of 0.8, host populations were reduced by ca. 60% parasitism. When the winter petroleum oil was combined either with additional petroleum oil 40 days after the initial appearance of 1st-instar nymphs of the 1st generation or with an organophosphorous insecticide 40 days after the initial appearance of 1st-instar nymphs of the 2nd generation (degree of coverage=0.8 in each case), 40% parasitism led the reduction of the pest population.
6. The most desirable control program was considered to be one in which winter petroleum oil was used every year and additional petroleum oil or an organophosphorous insecticide was also used in those years when host density was high.

     

Roadway mortality of barn owls in Idaho,USA

We examined the temporal, spatial, and demographic factors that influenced roadway mortality of barn owls (Tyto alba) along a 248-km stretch of Interstate 84 in southern Idaho using systematic road surveys. Counts of dead animals from surveys can be underestimated because of sampling biases; therefore, we also conducted experiments to assess the effects of search and removal bias on the estimates of roadway mortality of owls. We conducted surveys every 2 weeks over a 2-year period and detected 812 dead barn owls (unadjusted mortality rate of 1.64 owls/km/yr). After adjusting this estimate for search and removal bias, we documented mortality rates of up to 5.99 owls/km/year. Owl mortality was not random in relation to sex, age class, or location along the highway. Females and juveniles, which represent individuals more likely to disperse long distances, were killed more frequently than males and adults. During the nonbreeding season, owls were killed more often near agricultural lands than in shrub-steppe, but this pattern was not apparent during the breeding season. Owls were also killed more often on portions of the roadway closer to the Snake River canyon, perhaps because of the availability of nest and roost sites. Mortality rates differed markedly between the 2 years of study, which could have been related to variability in weather and its subsequent effect on owl productivity. Our data suggest that barn owls in this region may not persist under this level of mortality without significant immigration or management. Thus, roadway management to reduce or prevent owl use of roadways, reduce rodent populations near major roads, alert motorists to the presence of owls, or otherwise reduce the chances that vehicles and owls collide would improve barn owl survival and population persistence. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Additional considerations for gray wolf management after their removal from Endangered Species Act protections

Mech (2010) provided a review of options involving regulated, public hunting of gray wolves (Canis lupus) when states regain control of wolf management. We agree with his general conclusion that the use of lethal management should focus more in areas of conflict and less in wilderness areas, especially near protected places like national parks. Here, we expand on Mech's work and provide additional considerations that could be incorporated into state management plans to make them more acceptable to an increasingly diverse group of interested stakeholders, including: 1) the use of human dimensions research to understand the conditions under which stakeholders find lethal management acceptable, and to evaluate the acceptability of agency efforts to increase tolerance for wolves; 2) employing preventative measures to protect livestock and pets, especially in cases where wolf packs are highly visible to the public; and 3) selective use of sport hunting in areas where wolf impacts are deemed unacceptable. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

油菜肥料运筹的动态知识模型

通过分析和提炼油菜施肥管理方面的最新研究资料,利用养分平衡原理,以产量目标和土壤理化特性等为基础,建立了系统化和广适性的油菜肥料运筹动态知识模型。该模型可用于精确定量不同环境条件下油菜生产过程中的总施氮量、施磷量、施钾量和施硼量、有机氮与无机氮的比例以及氮、磷、钾基肥与追肥的比例等。利用南京、仪征和如皋3个不同生态点常年气象资料、不同土壤类型和不同产量目标等对所建肥料运筹知识模型进行了实例分析,结果表明,所建知识模型总体上具有较好的决策性和适用性。