A survey of elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Kahuzi-Biega National Park lowland sector and adjacent forest in eastern Zaire

There has been considerable uncertainty about the abundance estimation of Loxodonta africana within tropical lowland moist forests in Zaire. We surveyed a 15,570 km² area within the forests of eastern Zaire using transect sampling methods and estimated the elephant population to be 3720 (range 2300–5000) individuals. Dung pile densities were significantly different between adjacent settlement, deep forest, and deep forest core strata, with the most remote area harbouring the highest density. Evidence of elephant poaching was encountered throughout the survey area suggesting that elephant populations continue to be at severe risk.     

Acoustic estimation of wildlife abundance: methodology for vocal mammals in forested habitats

Habitat loss and hunting pressure threaten mammal populations worldwide, generating critical time constraints on trend assessment. This study introduces a new survey method that samples continuously and non‐invasively over long time periods, obtaining estimates of abundance from vocalization rates. We present feasibility assessment methods for acoustic surveys and develop equations for estimating population size. As an illustration, we demonstrate the feasibility of acoustic surveys for African forest elephants (Loxodonta africana cyclotis). Visual surveys and vocalizations from a forest clearing in the Central African Republic were used to establish that low‐frequency elephant calling rate is a useful index of elephant numbers (linear regression P < 0.001, r_adj.² = 0.58). The effective sampling area was 3.22 km² per acoustic sensor, a dramatic increase in coverage over dung survey transects. These results support the use of acoustic surveys for estimating elephant abundance over large remote areas and in diverse habitats, using a distributed network of acoustic sensors. The abundance estimation methods presented can be applied in surveys of any species for which an acoustic abundance index and detection function have been established. This acoustic survey technique provides an opportunity to improve management and conservation of many acoustically‐active taxa whose populations are currently under‐monitored.     

Small-scale dung survey reveals high forest elephant density and preference for mixed species forest in an intact protected area

Understanding the ecological factors influencing African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) abundance and distribution is crucial for their conservation management in Central Africa. Dung surveys have been conducted at the landscape scale and confirmed the overwhelming impact of anthropogenic activities on forest elephants. We present results from a small-scale survey in a pristine protected area without anthropogenic activities to elucidate the ecological factors influencing forest elephant density. We conducted a line transect dung survey in a small study area (110 km²) around Mbeli Bai, a natural forest clearing in the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park, Republic of Congo, and compare results with a landscape survey conducted during the same period. We used habitat specific dung decay data collected on site to estimate elephant density using distance sampling. We fitted Generalized Additive Models to elephant dung encounter rate using explanatory variables collected during the transect survey and from geospatial data. The small-scale survey revealed a precise estimate of forest elephant density that was twice as high as the result from a landscape survey with higher density in mixed species forest for the small-scale survey. We could not find an impact of the proximity of forest clearings and proximity to rivers at the small scale. Fine-scale habitat features, e.g. degree of canopy and understorey closure, had little explanatory power for elephant dung encounter rate. Small-scale dung surveys are a useful method to reveal spatio-temporal variation in forest elephant density and distribution which can inform conservation practitioners in a timely manner. Combining monitoring methods at various spatial scales improves our knowledge and conservation efforts of forest elephants. Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park is a stronghold for forest elephants and of global importance for their conservation.

     

NDVI is not reliable as a surrogate of forage abundance for a large herbivore in tropical forest habitat

Remotely sensed vegetation indices are increasingly being used in wildlife studies but field‐based support for their utility as a measure of forage availability comes largely from open‐canopy habitats. We assessed whether normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) represents forage availability for Asian elephants in a southern Indian tropical forest. We found that the number of food species was a small percentage of all plant species. NDVI was not a good measure of food abundance in any vegetation category partly because of (a) small to moderate proportional abundances of food species relative to the total abundance of all species in that category (herbs and shrubs), (b) abundant overstory vegetation resulting in low correlations between NDVI and food abundance, despite a high proportional abundance of food species and a concordance between total abundance and food species abundance (graminoids), and (c) the relevant variables measured and important as food at the ground level (count and GBH) not being related to primary productivity (trees and recruits). NDVI had a negative relationship with the total abundance of graminoids, which represent a bulk of elephant and other herbivore diet, because of negative interaction with other vegetation and canopy cover that positively explained NDVI. Spatially interpolated total graminoid abundance modeled from field data outperformed NDVI in predicting total graminoid abundance, although interpolation models of food graminoid abundance were not satisfactory. Our results reject the utility of NDVI in mapping elephant forage abundance in tropical forests, a finding that has implications for studies of other herbivores also. Abstract in Kannada is available with online material.     

Fruit,Minerals, and Forest Elephant Trails: Do All Roads Lead to Rome?

Tropical forests are among the most heterogeneous environments on earth, and food resources for many animals are patchy both in time and space. In Africa's equatorial forest, permanent trails created and maintained by forest elephants are conspicuous features. Trails may be several meters wide and continue for tens of kilometers. Speculation on which resources determine the distribution of trails has identified fruit, browse, and mineral deposits as candidates. In this study, the relationships between these habitat variables and elephant trails were investigated. The size of individual trails and the density of the trail system increased dramatically with proximity to mineral deposits. Fruit tree basal area decreased with perpendicular distance from trails, while that of non‐fruit trees did not. Fruit tree abundance and basal area were significantly higher on trail intersections than random sites and increased with intersection size. No relationship was found between monocotyledon browse abundance and elephant trail system characteristics. Clumped resources, which are at least partially reliable, provide a high nutritional payback, and are not rapidly depleted and can thus be visited repeatedly, appear to influence permanent trail formation by forest elephants. Permanent trails may allow naive individuals or those with imperfect knowledge to locate and acquire important resources.     

Forest elephant crisis in the Congo Basin

Debate over repealing the ivory trade ban dominates conferences of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Resolving this controversy requires accurate estimates of elephant population trends and rates of illegal killing. Most African savannah elephant populations are well known; however, the status of forest elephants, perhaps a distinct species, in the vast Congo Basin is unclear. We assessed population status and incidence of poaching from line-transect and reconnaissance surveys conducted on foot in sites throughout the Congo Basin. Results indicate that the abundance and range of forest elephants are threatened from poaching that is most intense close to roads. The probability of elephant presence increased with distance to roads, whereas that of human signs declined. At all distances from roads, the probability of elephant occurrence was always higher inside, compared to outside, protected areas, whereas that of humans was always lower. Inside protected areas, forest elephant density was correlated with the size of remote forest core, but not with size of protected area. Forest elephants must be prioritised in elephant management planning at the continental scale.     

Environmental factors affecting the distribution of African elephants in the Kasigau wildlife corridor,SE Kenya

The African elephant, Loxodonta africana, is under threat from habitat loss, poaching and human–elephant conflict. To mitigate for impact of habitat loss and reduce conflict, connectivity between elephant habitats can be improved through the protection of corridor areas. This study looks at elephant distribution and movement patterns within the Kasigau Wildlife Corridor (KWC) within the Tsavo Conservation Area in South‐east Kenya. Elephant presence data were obtained from observations by rangers during routine patrols across KWC, and were analysed in MaxEnt. The environmental factors predicting elephant distribution and density were tested, as well as the relationship between elephant maximum entropy and the presence and abundance of other wildlife. Seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation, plus presence of waterholes were found to play significant roles in elephant distribution across KWC. Higher elephant densities were not found to correlate with lower densities of other wildlife species; indeed, during the dry seasons, elephant presence was associated with greater wild herbivore densities. Besides illustrating the importance of the KWC for elephant conservation in the Tsavo ecosystem, both as a key corridor and habitat, this study also hopes to highlight the untapped utility of routine ranger patrol data, and encourage the use of such presence‐only data for deducing important knowledge for conservation of biodiversity.     

Assessing the effects of elephant foraging on the structure and diversity of an Afrotropical forest

African forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) are ecosystem engineers that browse and damage large quantities of vegetation during their foraging and movement. Though elephant trail networks and clearings are conspicuous features of many African forests, the consequences of elephant foraging for forest structure and diversity are poorly documented. In this study in northeastern Gabon, we compare stem size, stem density, proportional damage, species diversity, and species relative abundance of seedlings and saplings in the vicinity of seven tree species that produce elephant-preferred fruits (“elephant trees”) relative to control trees that do not. Across 34 survey trees, with a combined census area of 2.04 ha, we recorded data on 26,128 woody stems in three sizes classes. Compared with control trees, the area around elephant trees had the following: (a) a significantly greater proportion of damaged seedlings and a marginally greater proportion of damaged saplings (with 82% and 24% greater odds of damage, respectively); (b) no significant difference in stem density or species diversity; and (c) a significantly greater relative abundance of seedlings of elephant tree species. Increasing distance away from focal elephant trees was associated with significantly reduced sapling stem damage, significantly increased sapling stem density, and significantly increased sapling species diversity. Considered in sum, our results suggest that elephants can affect the structure and diversity of Afrotropical forests through their foraging activities, with some variation based on location and plant size class. Developing a more complete understanding of elephants’ ecological effects will require continued research, ideally with manipulative experiments.     

Conservation status of Asian elephants: the influence of habitat and governance

Understanding the drivers of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) abundance and distribution is critical for effective elephant conservation, yet no such analysis exists despite decades of assessments and planning. We explored the influence of habitat- and governance-related drivers on elephant abundance across the 13 Asian elephant range countries. We tested competing statistical models by integrating a binary index of elephant abundance (IEA) derived from expert knowledge with different predictor variables including habitat, human population, socioeconomics, and governance data. We employed logistic regression and model-averaging techniques based on Akaike’s Information Criterion to identify the best-performing subset among our 12 candidate models and used the model-averaged results to predict IEA in other areas in Asia where elephant population status is currently unknown. Forest area was our strongest single predictor variable. The best performing model, however, featured a combination of habitat and governance variables including forest area, level of corruption, proportional mix of forest and agriculture, and total agricultural area. Our predictive model identified five areas with medium–high to high probability to have populations with >150 elephants, which we believe should be surveyed to assess their status. Asian elephants persist in areas that are dominated by forest but also seem to benefit from a mix of agricultural activities. A relatively low level of corruption is also important and we conclude that effective governance is essential for maintaining Asian elephant populations. Asian elephant populations cannot be maintained solely in protected areas but need well-managed, mixed-use landscapes where people and elephants coexist.     

Vegetation correlates of gibbon density in the peat‐swamp forest of the Sabangau catchment,Central Kalimantan,Indonesia

Understanding the complex relationship between primates and their habitats is essential for effective conservation plans. Peat‐swamp forest has recently been recognized as an important habitat for the Southern Bornean gibbon (Hylobates albibarbis), but information is scarce on the factors that link gibbon density to characteristics of this unique ecosystem. Our aims in this study were firstly to estimate gibbon density in different forest subtypes in a newly protected, secondary peat‐swamp forest in the Sabangau Catchment, Indonesia, and secondly to identify which vegetation characteristics correlate with gibbon density. Data collection was conducted in a 37.1 km² area, using auditory sampling methods and vegetation “speed plotting”. Gibbon densities varied between survey sites from 1.39 to 3.92 groups/km². Canopy cover, tree height, density of large trees and food availability were significantly correlated with gibbon density, identifying the preservation of tall trees and good canopy cover as a conservation priority for the gibbon population in the Sabangau forest. This survey indicates that selective logging, which specifically targets large trees and disrupts canopy cover, is likely to have adverse effects on gibbon populations in peat‐swamp forests, and calls for greater protection of these little studied ecosystems. Am. J. Primatol. 72:607–616, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Large-scale spatial variation in palm fruit abundance across a tropical moist forest estimated from high-resolution aerial photographs

Fruit abundance is a critical factor in ecological studies of tropical forest animals and plants, but difficult to measure at large spatial scales. We tried to estimate spatial variation in fruit abundance on a relatively large spatial scale using low altitude, high‐resolution aerial photography. We measured fruit production for all 555 individuals of the arborescent palm Astrocaryum standleyanum across 25 ha of mapped tropical moist forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, by visually counting fruits from the ground. Simultaneously, we used high‐resolution aerial photographs to map sun‐exposed crowns of the palm across the same area, which were then linked to ground‐mapped stems. First, we verified that the fruit crop size of individual trees was positively associated with both crown presence on aerial photos and crown area visible on aerial photos. Then, we determined how well spatial variation in Astrocaryum fruit density across the study area was predicted by spatial densities of photo‐detected crowns and crown area compared to spatial densities of ground‐mapped stems and stem diameters. We found a positive association of fruit crop size with crown visibility on aerial photographs. Although representing just one third of all individuals in the study area, photo‐detected crowns represented 57% of all fruits produced. The spatial pattern of photo‐detected crowns was strongly correlated with the spatial pattern of fruit abundance based on direct fruit counts, and correctly showed the areas with the highest and lowest fruit abundances. The spatial density of photo‐detected crowns predicted spatial variation in fruit abundance equally well as did the spatial density of ground‐mapped stems. Photo‐detected crown area did not yield a better prediction. Our study indicates that remote sensing of crowns can be a reliable and cost‐effective method for estimating spatial variation in fruit abundance across large areas for highly distinctive canopy species. Our study is also among the few to provide empirical evidence for a positive relationship between crown exposure of forest trees and fruit production.     

Densities of Two Frugivorous Primates with Respect to Forest and Fragment Tree Species Composition and Fruit Availability

Conservation of wildlife populations requires extensive knowledge of their habitat requirements, efficient methods to evaluate habitat quality, and an understanding of the value of fragments and edges. Kibale National Park, Uganda has areas that differ in the densities of 2 species of frugivorous monkeys—Cercopithecus mitis and Lophocebus albigena—including one on an edge and forest fragments outside the park that lack both species. We compared the basal area densities of important food trees with primate densities. The density of Cercopithecus mitis correlates most strongly with the basal area density of all types of food trees combined. The density of Lophocebus albigena does not correlate with the basal area densities of any category of food trees or with fruit availability. An index of their density—number of groups seen per km walked—correlates to fruit availability but with marginal significance. Lack of a relationship between the basal area densities of food trees and density of Lophocebus albigena may be the result of a mismatch in scale between the forest area measured and their large home ranges. We compared the unused area of forest to the other areas of the forest and the fragments and found it had higher basal area densities in all food tree categories for both species than the fragments and lower basal area densities of most categories than the other parts of the forest, indicating that the fragments are poor quality and would probably be unused even if dispersal were likely.     

Population estimates of the Endangered Hawaiʻi ʻĀkepa (Loxops coccineus) in different habitats on windward Mauna Loa

Endangered Hawai‘i ?ākepas (Loxops coccineus) are endemic to Hawai‘i island, where they occur in five spatially distinct populations. Data concerning the status and population trends of these unique Hawaiian honeycreepers are crucial for assessing the effectiveness of recovery and management actions. In 2016, we used point‐transect distance sampling to estimate the abundance of Hawai‘i ?ākepas in portions of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) and the Ka?ū Forest Reserve (KFR) on Mauna Loa volcano. We then compiled the survey data from four other populations to provide a global population estimate. In our HAVO and KFR study area, we mapped habitat classes to determine the population densities in each habitat. Densities were highest (1.03 birds/ha) in open‐canopy montane ?ōhi?a (Metrosideros polymorpha) woodland. In contrast, densities of the largest ?ākepa population on Mauna Kea volcano were highest in closed‐canopy ?ōhi?a and koa (Acacia koa) forest where the species is dependent on nest cavities in tall (> 15 m), large (> 50‐cm diameter at breast height) trees. We surveyed potential nesting habitat in HAVO and KFR and found only one cavity in the short‐stature montane ?ōhi?a woodland and five cavities in the tall‐stature forest. Differences in densities between the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa populations suggest that Hawai‘i ?ākepas may exhibit different foraging and nesting behaviors in the two habitats. The estimated overall population density in the HAVO and KFR study area was 0.52 birds/ha, which equates to 3663 (95% CI 1725–6961) birds in their 11,377‐ha population range. We calculated a global population of 16,428 (95% CI 10,065–25,198) birds, which is similar to an estimate of 13,892 (95% CI 10,315–17,469) birds made in 1986. Our results suggest that populations are stable to increasing in the two largest populations, but the three other populations are smaller (range = 77–1443 birds) and trends for those populations are unknown.     

Predicting and quantifying the structure of tropical dry forests in South Florida and the Neotropics using spaceborne imagery

Aim This research examines environmental theories and remote sensing methods that have been hypothesized to be associated with tropical dry forest structure. Location Tropical dry forests of South Florida and the Neotropics. Methods Field measurements of stand density, basal area and tree height were collected from 22 stands in South Florida and 30 stands in the Neotropics. In South Florida, field measurements were compared to climatic (temperature, precipitation, hurricane disturbance) and edaphic (rockiness, soil depth) variables, spectral indices (NDVI, IRI, MIRI) from Landsat 7 ETM+, and estimates of tree height from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and the National Elevation Dataset (NED). Environmental variables associated with tropical dry forest structure in South Florida were compared to tropical dry forest in other Neotropical sites. Results There were significant correlations among temperature and precipitation, and stand density and tree height in South Florida. There were significant correlations between (i) stand density and mean NDVI and standard deviation of NDVI, (ii) MIRI and stand density, basal area and mean tree height, and (iii) estimates of tree height from SRTM with maximum tree height. In the Neotropics, there were no relationships between temperature or precipitation and tropical dry forest structure, however, Neotropical sites that experience hurricane disturbance had significantly shorter tree heights and higher stand densities. Main conclusions It is possible to predict and quantify the forest structure characteristics of tropical dry forests using climatic data, Landsat 7 ETM+ imagery and SRTM data in South Florida. However, results based on climatic data are region‐specific and not necessarily transferable between tropical dry forests at a continental spatial scale. Spectral indices from Landsat 7 ETM+ can be used to quantify forest structure characteristics, but SRTM data are currently not transferable to other regions. Hurricane disturbance has a significant impact on forest structure in the Neotropics.     

Abundance of Gall Midges on Poulsenia armata (Moraceae): Importance of Host Plant Size and Light Environment in Tropical Rain Forests1

We studied the effects of contrasting light environments on the relationship between the host plant size of Poulsenia armata and the abundance of two gall midges in a tropical rain forest in Veracruz, Mexico. The number and density of two gall morphs (i.e., laminar and vein‐petiole galls) were positively correlated with plant size only in trees found in the forest but not in gaps. The availability of foliar area of P. armata trees was greater in forest gaps than in the forest. The foliar area was positively correlated with the abundance of laminar galls in trees in forest sites, but not with vein‐petiole galls. We concluded that the abundance of two morphs of gall midges on P. armata was associated with host plant size only in the forest trees. Larger plants had more galls than small plants, although this relationship was affected by local light environments.     

Assessing species density and abundance of tropical trees from remotely sensed data and geostatistics

Question: What relationships exist between remotely sensed measurements and field observations of species density and abundance of tree species? Can these relationships and spatial interpolation approaches be used to improve the accuracy of prediction of species density and abundance of tree species? Location: Quintana Roo, Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. Methods: Spatial prediction of species density and abundance of species for three functional groups was performed using regression kriging, which considers the linear relationship between dependent and explanatory variables, as well as the spatial dependence of the observations. These relationships were explored using regression analysis with species density and abundance of species of three functional groups as dependent variables, and reflectance values of spectral bands, computed NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), standard deviation of NDVI and texture measurements of Landsat 7 Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery as explanatory variables. Akaike information criterion was employed to select a set of candidate models and calculate model‐averaged parameters. Variogram analysis was used to analyze the spatial structure of the residuals of the linear regressions. Results: Species density of trees was related to reflectance values of TM4, NDVI and spatial heterogeneity of land cover types, while the abundance of species in functional groups showed different patterns of association with remotely sensed data. Models that accounted for spatial autocorrelation improved the accuracy of estimates in all cases. Conclusions: Our approach can substantially increase the accuracy of the spatial estimates of species richness and abundance of tropical tree species and can help guide and evaluate tropical forest management and conservation.     

Do Collared Peccaries Negatively Impact Understory Insectivorous Rain Forest Birds Indirectly Via Lianas and Vines?

Tropical rain forest understory insectivorous birds are declining, even in large forest reserves, yet the mechanisms remain unclear. Abundant large mammals can reshape forest structure, which degrades foraging microhabitat. We used six sites in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama with varying collared peccary (Pecari tajacu) density to test three linked hypotheses: (1) locally declining understory insectivores forage preferentially in liana tangles; (2) vine and liana density, cover, and frequency of dense tangles are lower in the presence of abundant collared peccaries; and consequently (3) abundant collared peccaries are associated with reduced understory insectivorous bird abundance. Three insectivores that declined at La Selva preferentially foraged in liana tangles: Checker‐throated Antwren (Epinecrophylla fulviventris), Dot‐winged Antwren (Microrhopias quixensis), and Ruddy‐tailed Flycatcher (Terenotriccus erythrurus). Vine density, liana cover, liana tangle frequency, and forest cover were lower in the presence of collared peccaries relative to experimental mammal exclosures, with the greatest differences at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica. Across sites, five of seven vine and liana measures showed negative, curvilinear relationships with peccary densities. Vine and liana measures peaked at sites with intermediate peccary density, and were low at La Selva. Structural equation models suggest negative indirect effects of the collared peccaries on focal bird densities, mediated by vine and liana density, cover, or tangle frequency. Forest area and rainfall affected both lianas and birds, but collared peccaries also contributed to the reduced abundance of understory insectivores. Indirect effects such as that suggested here may occur even in large, protected forest reserves where large mammal communities are changing.     

Recruitment variability of resident brown trout in peripheral populations from southern Europe

1. Population regulation was studied for seven consecutive years (1992–98) in five rivers at the periphery of the distribution of Salmo trutta, where the fish were living under environmental constraints quite different from those of the main distribution area. 2. Recruitment is naturally highly variable and the populations had been earlier classified as overexploited. Thus we expected that densities of young trout in most populations would be too low for density‐dependent mortality to operate. We tested this by fitting the abundance of recruits to egg densities over seven consecutive years (stock–recruitment relationship), and used the results to judge whether exploitation should be restricted in the interests of conserving the populations. 3. The density of 0+ trout in early September, as well as the initial density of eggs and parents, varied greatly among localities and years. The data for all populations fitted the Ricker stock–recruitment model. The proportion of variance explained by the population curves varied between 32% and 51%. However, in most cases the observations were in the density‐independent part of the stock–recruitment curve, where densities of the recruits increased proportionally with egg densities. 4. Our findings suggest that recruitment densities in most rivers and years were below the carrying capacity of the habitats. Although density‐dependent mechanisms seemed to regulate fish abundance in some cases, environmental factors and harvesting appeared generally to preclude populations from reaching densities high enough for negative feedbacks to operate. The findings thus lend support to Haldane’s (1956) second hypothesis that changes in population density are primarily due to density‐independent factors in unfavourable areas and areas with low density due to exploitation. Exploitation should be reduced to allow natural selection to operate more effectively.     

Pileated Gibbon Density in Relation to Habitat Characteristics and Post‐logging Forest Recovery

ABSTRACT Although it is known that forest loss and degradation negatively impact most forest‐dwelling primates, such relationships are difficult to quantify because many primates are difficult to survey over large areas. Furthermore, recovery times are also difficult to assess due to a lack of long‐term data. Here, we determined how forest characteristics and habitat disturbance correlate with the abundance of pileated gibbons, Hylobates pileatus. We studied a population in Khao Ang Rue Nai Wildlife Sanctuary in southeastern Thailand, assessed its density using an auditory method combined with distance sampling at 24 randomly placed sample sites. In addition, we determined how simple forest structural characteristics and habitat disturbance correlate with the gibbon abundance. Average gibbon density per site was 1.02 ± 0.16 (SE) groups/km² (range 0–2.74). Bivariate analyses indicated that densities depended on food tree biomass, level of disturbance, evergreen forest cover, time since protection, and distance to the sanctuary boundary. Multiple regression analysis suggested evergreen forest cover and distance to boundary were the most influential factors. Because evergreen forest cover, time since protection, and habitat disturbance are correlated, these results suggest a direct dependence of gibbon densities on mature, undisturbed evergreen forest. While gibbons can persist in disturbed areas if the forest is protected, it appears that recovery to previous densities may take decades. We suggest that this is due to the slow pace of forest regeneration and/or poor recovery potential of gibbons.     

Estimating forest elephant density in Sapo National Park (Liberia) with a rainfall model

The number of elephant dung‐piles lying on the forest floor is a function of the number of elephants present and the rainfall in the 2 preceding months. We present the results of a stochastic model that describes this relationship and we show how it can be used to estimate elephant numbers. The data from a survey in Sapo NP (Liberia) in 1989 are used as an example. The dung‐pile density was estimated at 152 km^?2 with confidence interval from 72 to 322, and the number of elephants was estimated to be 313 with confidence interval from 172 to 617.