Reproductive failure: a new paradigm for extinction

Extinction was recognized as a scientific fact 200 years ago, although no adequate paradigm has emerged to explain the process. Prevailing theory has focused on ‘cause(s)’ of extinction but has neglected ‘effect’ and ‘mechanism’. These omissions preclude the formulation of a functional paradigm necessary for remedial action in response to the impending anthropogenic mediated, worldwide extinction crisis. The new paradigm is defined as the multi‐generational, attritional loss of reproductive fitness. Stabilizing selection continuously adapts species to specific ecosystems, which often results in highly evolved species prone to extinction when environments shift. Some species survive by tracking the declining palaeoclimates in which they presumably evolved, often becoming relicts prior to extinction. Compelling new evidence shows that even mass extinctions are largely a result of environmental change leading to widespread, attritional reproductive decline, rather than a result of instantaneous global catastrophes.     

The genetics of phenotypic plasticity. VI. Theoretical predictions for directional selection

We explore the effects of linear and quadratic reaction norms on heritability and directional selection. Genetic variation for reaction norm parameters can alter the heritability of traits; the magnitude of the heritability depends upon both the environment and the correlation among the parameters. Genetic variation for reaction norm parameters can alter the response to directional selection. Selection on a trait in one environment can shift both the mean of the trait measured across environments and the plasticity of the trait; the signs and magnitudes of these responses depend on the correlations among the parameters of the reaction norm. Our model is consistent with the results of ten experiments for selection on a trait in a single environment. In all experiments, selection towards the overall mean of the population always resulted in a relatively lower plasticity than selection away from the overall mean. Our model was able to predict the results of two experiments for selection on a trait index calculated over more than one environment. Predictions were good for the direct response to selection but poorer for the correlated response to selection. Our results indicate the need for more data on the effects of environment on genetic parameters, especially correlations among reaction norm parameters.     

The evolution of animal genitalia: distinguishing between hypotheses by single species studies

Rapid evolution of genitalia is one of the most general patterns of morphological diversification in animals. Despite its generality, the causes of this evolutionary trend remain obscure. Several alternative hypotheses have been suggested to account for the evolution of genitalia (notably the lock-and-key, pleiotropism, and sexual selection hypotheses). Here, I argue that thorough intraspecific studies are the key to gaining insight into the patterns and processes of genitalic evolution. Critical assumptions and predictions that may be used to distinguish between the different hypotheses are identified and discussed. However, current knowledge of selection on genitalia, or even of the degree of phenotypic and genotypic variability of genital morphology, is highly limited, allowing only a very tentative assessment of the various hypotheses. In-depth single species studies of current patterns and processes of selection on genitalia are badly needed, and a single species research program is briefly outlined.     

Flowering time plasticity in Arabidopsis thaliana: a reanalysis of Westerman & Lawrence (1970)

Environmental variation in temperature can have dramatic effects on plant morphology, phenology, and fitness, and for this reason it is important to understand the evolutionary dynamics of phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature. We investigated constraints on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in response to a temperature gradient in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana by applying modern analytical tools to the classic data of Westerman & Lawrence (1970). We found significant evidence for two types of constraints. First, we detected numerous significant genetic correlations between plastic responses to temperature and the mean value of a trait across all environments, which differed qualitatively in pattern between the set of ecotypes and the set of mutant lines in the original sample. Secondly, we detected significant costs of flowering time plasticity in two of the three experimental environments, and a net pattern of selection against flowering time plasticity in the experiment overall. Thus, when explored with contemporary methods, the prescient work of Westerman & Lawrence (1970) provides new insights about evolutionary constraints on the evolution of plasticity.     

The fitness costs of developmental canalization and plasticity

Organisms are capable of an astonishing repertoire of phenotypic responses to the environment, and these often define important adaptive solutions to heterogeneous and unpredictable conditions. The terms ‘phenotypic plasticity’ and ‘canalization’ indicate whether environmental variation has a large or small effect on the phenotype. The evolution of canalization and plasticity is influenced by optimizing selection‐targeting traits within environments, but inherent fitness costs of plasticity may also be important. We present a meta‐analysis of 27 studies (of 16 species of plant and 7 animals) that have measured selection on the degree of plasticity independent of the characters expressed within environments. Costs of plasticity and canalization were equally frequent and usually mild; large costs were observed only in studies with low sample size. We tested the importance of several covariates, but only the degree of environmental stress was marginally positively related to the cost of plasticity. These findings suggest that costs of plasticity are often weak, and may influence phenotypic evolution only under stressful conditions.     

The genetical theory of kin selection

Natural selection operates both directly, via the impact of a trait upon the individual's own fitness, and indirectly, via the impact of the trait upon the fitness of the individual's genetically related social partners. These effects are often framed in terms of Hamilton's rule, rb - c > 0, which provides the central result of social-evolution theory. However, a number of studies have questioned the generality of Hamilton's rule, suggesting that it requires restrictive assumptions. Here, we use Fisher's genetical paradigm to demonstrate the generality of Hamilton's rule and to clarify links between different studies. We show that confusion has arisen owing to researchers misidentifying model parameters with the b and c terms in Hamilton's rule, and misidentifying measures of genotypic similarity or genealogical relationship with the coefficient of genetic relatedness, r. More generally, we emphasize the need to distinguish between general kin-selection theory that forms the foundations of social evolution, and streamlined kin-selection methodology that is used to solve specific problems.     

The first proof of a possibility of change of temperature norms of insect development as a result of artificial selection for fast or slow development by the example of the red soldier bug <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pyrrhocoris apterus</Emphasis> (Heteroptera,Pyrrhocoridae)

For 3–4 generations, selection of the nymphs most rapidly and slowly developing at 28°C was performed in four families of the red soldier bug Pyrrhocoris apterus L. In each generation, duration of development of nymphs was determined at 5 constant temperatures from 20°C to 28°C. From these data the linear regression coefficient of the development rate against temperature (the development thermolability coefficient) for each generation was calculated. As a result of the selection the average duration of the nymph development was shortened or increased statistically significantly depending on its direction. The artificial selection for the development duration has been established to change not only this parameter, but also the temperature norms of the insect development. At selection for fast development the regression straight line slope (i.e., the regression coefficient value) increased statistically significantly, i.e., development became more dependent on temperature. As a rule, the temperature threshold of development increased. At selection for slow development the values of the regression coefficient and of the threshold decreased, but these differences were not statistically significant. The effect of artificial selection for the development duration on temperature norms of insect development has been revealed for the first time.     

The prediction of adaptive evolution: empirical application of the secondary theorem of selection and comparison to the breeder's equation

Adaptive evolution occurs when fitness covaries with genetic merit for a trait (or traits). The breeder's equation (BE), in both its univariate and multivariate forms, allows us to predict this process by combining estimates of selection on phenotype with estimates of genetic (co)variation. However, predictions are only valid if all factors causal for trait-fitness covariance are measured. Although this requirement will rarely (if ever) be met in practice, it can be avoided by applying Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS). The STS predicts evolution by directly estimating the genetic basis of trait-fitness covariation without any explicit model of selection. Here we apply the BE and STS to four morphological traits measured in Soay sheep (Ovis aries) from St. Kilda. Despite apparently positive selection on heritable size traits, sheep are not getting larger. However, although the BE predicts increasing size, the STS does not, which is a discrepancy that suggests unmeasured factors are upwardly biasing our estimates of selection on phenotype. We suggest this is likely to be a general issue, and that wider application of the STS could offer at least a partial resolution to the common discrepancy between naive expectations and observed trait dynamics in natural populations.     

Ontogenetic patterns in the mechanisms of tolerance to herbivory in Plantago

Background and Aims

Herbivory and plant defence differ markedly among seedlings and juvenile and mature plants in most species. While ontogenetic patterns of chemical resistance have been the focus of much research, comparatively little is known about how tolerance to damage changes across ontogeny. Due to dramatic shifts in plant size, resource acquisition, stored reserves and growth, it was predicted that tolerance and related underlying mechanisms would differ among ontogenetic stages.

Methods

Ontogenetic patterns in the mechanisms of tolerance were investigated in Plantago lanceolata and P. major (Plantaginaceae) using the genetic sib-ship approach. Pot-grown plants were subjected to 50 % defoliation at the seedling, juvenile and mature stages and either harvested in the short-term to look at plasticity in growth and photosynthesis in response to damage or allowed to grow through seed maturation to measure phenology, shoot compensation and reproductive fitness.

Key Results

Tolerance to defoliation was high in P. lanceolata, but low in P. major, and did not vary among ontogenetic stages in either species. Mechanisms underlying tolerance did vary across ontogeny. In P. lanceolata, tolerance was significantly related to flowering (juveniles) and pre-damage shoot biomass (mature plants). In P. major, tolerance was significantly related to pre-damage root biomass (seedlings) and induction of non-photochemical quenching, a photosynthetic parameter (juveniles).

Conclusions

Biomass partitioning was very plastic in response to damage and showed associations with tolerance in both species, indicating a strong role in plant defence. In contrast, photosynthesis and phenology showed weaker responses to damage and were related to tolerance only in certain ontogenetic stages. This study highlights the pivotal role of ontogeny in plant defence and herbivory. Additional studies in more species are needed to determine how seedlings tolerate herbivory in general and whether mechanisms vary across ontogeny in consistent patterns.