Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty

We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as ‘extremely likely’ for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many ‘losers’ as ‘winners’. However, for no species was suitable climate ‘extremely likely’ to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35–69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as ‘extremely likely’ to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species' movement among sites, is critical to ensure effective future conservation.     

Ensemble models predict Important Bird Areas in southern Africa will become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change

Aim  To examine the impacts of climate change on endemic birds, which are of global significance for conservation, on a continent with few such assessments. We specifically assess projected range changes in relation to the Important Bird Areas (IBAs) network and assess the possible consequences for conservation.
Location  South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland.
Methods  The newly emerging ensemble modelling approach is used with 50 species, four climate change models for the period 2070–2100 and eight bioclimatic niche models in the statistical package biomod . Model evaluation is done using the receiver operating characteristic and the recently introduced true skill statistic. Future projections are made considering two extreme assumptions: species have full dispersal ability and species have no dispersal ability. A consensus forecast is identified using principal components analysis. This forecast is interpreted in terms of the IBA network. An irreplaceability analysis is used to highlight priority IBAs for conservation attention in terms of climate change.
Results  The majority of species (62%) are predicted to lose climatically suitable space. Five species lose at least 85% of their climatically suitable space. Many IBAs lose species (41%; 47 IBAs) and show high rates of species turnover of more than 50% (77%; 95 IBAs). Highly irreplaceable regions for endemic species become highly localized under climate change, meaning that the endemic species analysed here experience similar range contractions to maintain climate niches.
Main conclusions  The South African IBAs network is likely to become less effective for conserving endemic birds under climate change. The irreplaceability analysis identified key refugia for endemic species under climate change, but many of these areas are not currently IBAs. In addition, many of these high-priority areas that are IBAs fall outside the current formal protected areas network.     

基于随机森林模型的国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种优先保护区的识别

准确可靠地识别国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种的优先保护区,是生物多样性保护的热点问题之一。采用随机森林(random forests)模型,基于12个环境变量,对中国263种国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物建模,并预测各个物种在背景点的适生概率,迭加计算得到国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种的生境适宜性指数。此外,基于对生境适宜性指数的空间自相关分析,识别和确定国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种优先保护区,并对优先保护区目前的被保护情况进行分析。结果表明,国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种的优先保护区的面积为103.16万km~2,约占我国国土面积的10.90%。优先保护区主要分布在我国的西部地区,包括西南地区的秦岭-大巴山山区、云南省与印度及缅甸的交界地区、武陵山山区、喜马拉雅山-横断山脉山区、阿尔泰山脉山区、天山山脉山区、昆仑山山脉山区;东北的大、小兴安岭、东北-华南沿海地区及长江中下游地区有少量分布。优先保护区中被保护的面积为50.40万km~2,占优先保护区总面积的48.86%,保护率偏低,未被充分保护。利用系统聚类分析,将未被保护的优先保护区划分成3种优先保护顺序,以期为相关部门的决策提供科学依据,更好地保护生物多样性。     

How well do Important Bird Areas represent species and minimize conservation conflict in the tropical Andes?

Where high species richness and high human population density coincide, potential exists for conflict between the imperatives of species conservation and human development. We examine the coincidence of at‐risk bird species richness and human population in the countries of the tropical Andes. We then compare the performance of the expert‐driven Important Bird Areas (IBA) scheme against a hypothetical protected‐areas network identified with a systematic reserve selection algorithm seeking to maximize at‐risk bird species representation. Our aim is to assess the degree to which: IBAs contain a higher richness of at‐risk species than would be expected by chance, IBAs contain more people than would be expected by chance, and IBAs are congruent with complementary areas that maximize species representation with an equivalent number of sites. While the correlation of richness and population was low for the region as a whole, representation of all at‐risk bird species required many sites to be located in areas of high human population density. IBA sites contained higher human population densities than expected by chance (P < 0.05) and were markedly less efficient in representing at‐risk bird species of the region than sites selected using the reserve selection algorithm. Moreover, overlap between IBAs and these latter sites was very limited. Expert‐driven selection procedures may better reflect existing sociopolitical forces, including land ownership and management regimes, but are limited in their ability to develop an efficient, integrated network of sites to represent priority species. Reserve selection algorithms may serve this end by optimizing complementarity in species representation among selected sites, whether these sites are adopted independently or as a supplement to the existing reserve network. As tools of site selection, they may be particularly useful in areas such as the tropical Andes where complex patterns of species disjunction and co‐occurrence make the development of representative reserve networks particularly difficult. Furthermore, they facilitate making spatially explicit choices about how reserve sites are located in relation to human populations. We advocate their use not in replacement of approaches such as the IBA initiative but as an additional, complementary tool in ensuring that such reserve networks are developed as efficiently as practically possible.     

Projected impacts of climate change on a continent-wide protected area network

Despite widespread concern, the continuing effectiveness of networks of protected areas under projected 21st century climate change is uncertain. Shifts in species' distributions could mean these resources will cease to afford protection to those species for which they were originally established. Using modelled projected shifts in the distributions of sub-Saharan Africa's entire breeding avifauna, we show that species turnover across the continent's Important Bird Area (IBA) network is likely to vary regionally and will be substantial at many sites (> 50% at 42% of IBAs by 2085 for priority species). Persistence of suitable climate space across the network as a whole, however, is notably high, with 88–92% of priority species retaining suitable climate space in ≥ 1 IBA(s) in which they are currently found. Only 7–8 priority species lose climatic representation from the network. Hence, despite the likelihood of significant community disruption, we demonstrate that rigorously defined networks of protected areas can play a key role in mitigating the worst impacts of climate change on biodiversity.     

Amphibian Hotspots and Conservation Priorities in Eastern Cuba Identified by Species Distribution Modeling

The high rate of amphibian endemism and the severe habitat modification in the Caribbean islands make them an ideal place to test if the current protected areas network might protect this group. In this study, we model distribution and map species richness of the 40 amphibian species from eastern Cuba with the objectives of identify hotspots, detect gaps in species representation in protected areas, and select additional areas to fill these gaps. We used two modeling methods, Maxent and Habitat Suitability Models, to reach a consensus distribution map for each species, then calculate species richness by combining specific models and finally performed gap analyses for species and hotspots. Our results showed that the models were robust enough to predict species distributions and that most of the amphibian hotspots were represented in reserves, but 50 percent of the species were incompletely covered and Eleutherodactylus rivularis was totally uncovered by the protected areas. We identified 1441 additional km² (9.9% of the study area) that could be added to the current protected areas, allowing the representation of every species and all hotspots. Our results are relevant for the conservation planning in other Caribbean islands, since studies like this could contribute to fill the gaps in the existing protected areas and to design a future network. Both cases would benefit from modeling amphibian species distribution using available data, even if they are incomplete, rather than relying only in the protection of known or suspected hotspots.     

Trends in forest condition,threats and conservation action as derived from participatory monitoring in coastal Kenya

The coastal forests of Kenya are conservation priorities hosting high levels of biodiversity. Monitoring of biodiversity in these forests is therefore necessary to understand and reverse negative trends in good time. Using the Important Bird Area (IBA) monitoring framework, a participatory approach, state (habitat condition), pressure (threats) and response (conservation action) indicators of twelve coastal Kenya forest IBAs were assessed from 2004 to 2011. Trends for these indicators were assessed at six sites for which sufficient data existed: Arabuko‐Sokoke, Dakatcha Woodlands, Gede Ruins, Lower Tana River, Shimba Hills and Taita Hills, and baselines were described for remaining six. Changes were always small, but state deteriorated in Gede, Lower Tana and Shimba Hills, remained the same (unfavourable) in Arabuko‐Sokoke and Dakatcha, and improved in Taita Hills. Pressure reduced in Arabuko‐Sokoke, Dakatcha and Taita Hills, deteriorated in Lower Tana and Shimba Hills and remained the same (medium) in Gede. Response improved in Dakatcha, remained the same (medium) in Shimba Hills, and deteriorated in the rest. As there was an apparent overall deterioration in the forests assessed, improved management of the protected sites and increased conservation action through community engagement around protected areas and within the nonprotected IBAs are recommended.     

基于动物适宜栖息地的北京市自然保护地保护成效评估

栖息地是野生动物赖以生存的基础,明晰物种的适宜栖息地分布是切实加强野生动物保护、提高生物多样性保护成效的重要基础。北京市野生动植物资源丰富,也建立了一系列自然保护地以加强对野生动物的保护。当前亟需系统评估北京市现有自然保护地体系对野生动物适宜栖息地的保护成效,为未来北京市野生动物保护管理和自然保护地体系整合工作优化提供科学指导。研究选取了北京地区6个较为典型的野生动物为主要研究对象,包括黑鹳(Ciconia nigra)、褐马鸡(Crossoption mantchuricum)、大鸨(Otis tarda)、鸳鸯(Aix galericulata)、金雕(Aquila chrysaetos)和斑羚(Naemorhedus griseus),利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS的空间分析功能分析其适宜栖息地的分布;将自然保护地与适宜栖息地相叠加,识别其适宜栖息地的分布热点和保护空缺,进而评估了北京市现有自然保护地体系的保护成效。研究结果表明,6个研究物种在现有的自然保护地体系中均得到了不同程度的保护,其中褐马鸡的受保护率最高(92.82%),鸳鸯的受保护率最低(13.66%)。各类自然保...     

Using niche modelling and human influence index to indicate conservation priorities for Atlantic forest deer species

To prioritise conservation actions and management strategies for threatened forest deer species at the Atlantic forest, we aimed to identify and describe the most suitable habitat areas for forest deer species and to indicate conservation measures for state agents and local communities. We adopt an approach based on ecological niche modelling, key variable thresholds and spatial analyses. In addition, we associated our approach with a human influence index, an invasive species dataset of occurrences, protected area cover and IUCN category. We indicate 2 % (484 km²) of the Atlantic forest cover as conservation priority areas (CPAs). Of these, 56.8 % are outside protected areas, 20.7 % are inside IUCN categories i, ii and iii protected areas, 19.9 % are inside IUCN categories iv, v, and vi protected areas, and 2.6 % are inside indigenous areas. Also, we indicate the most relevant protected areas for deer conservation in the Atlantic forest. The CPAs were classified into more human-influenced areas (MHIA) and less human-influenced areas (LHIA), and we identified 21 significant (greater than120 km²) continuous CPAs outside protected areas. We highlight actions in several perspectives of human influence, governance levels and law protection that would rationalise the use of funds and human resources.     

Birdlife International's Important Bird Areas Programme in Morocco

Magin, C. 2000. Birdlife International's Important Bird Areas Programme in Morocco. Ostrich 71 (1 & 2): 175–176.

BirdLife International's Important Bird Areas programme (IBA) was launched in Morocco in 1995 by a steering committee comprised of three national NGO's, representatives from the Ministries of Agriculture and Environment, the University of Montpelier and BirdLife International. Subsequently the programme's implementation has been overseen by the BirdLife Secretariat. It will result in the publication of a national IBA inventory and the elaboration of plans to promote the conservation of priority IBAs. The selection of IBA sites is discussed and three examples of Moroccan IBAs are given.     

Focusing Conservation Efforts for the Critically Endangered Brown-headed Spider Monkey (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ateles fusciceps</Emphasis>) Using Remote Sensing,Modeling, and Playback Survey Methods

Brown-headed spider monkeys (Ateles fusciceps), endemic to the Choco-Darien forests and lower Andean forests of NW Ecuador, are considered critically endangered. Unfortunately, scientific data regarding the actual status of populations is lacking. We combined satellite image analysis, species-specific habitat assessment, and a field survey technique using playback to focus conservation efforts for this species. First, we identified remaining forest via a LANDSAT mosaic and then applied species-specific criteria to delineate remaining forest with potential to hold populations. By combining this with the historical distribution from ecological niche modeling and predicted hunting intensity we generated a species-specific landscape map. Within our study area, forest capable of sustaining Ateles fusciceps covers 5872 km², of which 2172 km² (40%) is protected. Unprotected forest considered suitable for Ateles fusciceps extends to 3700 km² but within this only 989 km² (23%) is under low hunting pressure and likely to maintain healthy populations of Ateles fusciceps. To overcome problems of sampling at low primate density and in difficult mountain terrain we developed a field survey technique to determine presence and estimate abundance using acoustic sampling. For sites under low hunting pressure density of primates varied with altitude. Densities decreased from 7.49 individuals/km² at 332 masl to 0.9 individuals/km² at 1570 masl. Based on combining data sets in a gap analysis, we recommend conservation action focus on unprotected lowland forest to the south and west of the Cotacachi-Cayapas Ecological Reserve where hunting pressure is low and population densities of Ateles fusciceps are greatest.     

Increasing synergistic effects of habitat destruction and hunting on mammals over three decades in the Gran Chaco

Habitat destruction and overexploitation are the main threats to biodiversity and where they co-occur, their combined impact is often larger than their individual one. Yet, detailed knowledge of the spatial footprints of these threats is lacking, including where they overlap and how they change over time. These knowledge gaps are real barriers for effective conservation planning. Here, we develop a novel approach to reconstruct the individual and combined footprints of both threats over time. We combine satellite-based land-cover change maps, habitat suitability models and hunting pressure models to demonstrate our approach for the community of larger mammals (48 species > 1 kg) across the 1.1 million km² Gran Chaco region, a global deforestation hotspot covering parts of Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay. This provides three key insights. First, we find that the footprints of habitat destruction and hunting pressure expanded considerably between 1985 and 2015, across ~40% of the entire Chaco – twice the area affected by deforestation. Second, both threats increasingly acted together within the ranges of larger mammals in the Chaco (17% increase on average, ± 20% SD, cumulative increase of co-occurring threats across 465 000 km²), suggesting large synergistic effects. Conversely, core areas of high-quality habitats declined on average by 38%. Third, we identified remaining priority areas for conservation in the northern and central Chaco, many of which are outside the protected area network. We also identify hotspots of high threat impacts in central Paraguay and northern Argentina, providing a spatial template for threat-specific conservation action. Overall, our findings suggest increasing synergistic effects between habitat destruction and hunting pressure in the Chaco, a situation likely common in many tropical deforestation frontiers. Our work highlights how threats can be traced in space and time to understand their individual and combined impact, even in situations where data are sparse.     

The Important Bird Areas Programme in Africa: an outline

Bennun, L. & Fishpool, L. 2000. The Important Bird Areas Programme in Africa: an outline. Ostrich 71 (1 & 2): 150–153.

BirdLife International works to conserve the world's birds at the levels of species, sites and habitats. The Important Bird Areas (IBA) programme is a process of setting site-based priorities for birds based on information about species' distribution and numbers. The African IBA programme started in 1993, building on similar successful programmes in Europe and the Middle East. Important Bird Areas are selected according to internationally agreed criteria based upon the presence of globally threatened species, species of restricted range, biome-restricted species assemblages and concentrations of numbers.

In Africa, a continental directory of sites is scheduled for publication in 2000, and work is underway to identify and document IBAs across the continent and its associated islands. In 18 countries so far, the process of compiling information is being combined at a national level with strengthening the capacity for research and action, and building effective structures (especially NGO-Government linkages) for advocacy and action. The resulting inventories can be used in numerous ways to prioritise, inform and stimulate conservation action at local and national levels.     

京津冀地区物种多样性保护优先区识别研究

着力扩大环境容量和生态空间，加强跨区环境保护合作，是落实京津冀一体化协同发展国家战略的重要内容。摸清京津冀地区的生物多样性分布格局，可为国家公园布局、生态环境保护工程的实施提供依据。根据"自然保护区生物多样性保护价值评估技术规程（LY/T 2649-2016）"，基于京津冀地区自然保护区的综合科学考察报告，评估了京津冀地区典型自然保护区的物种多样性保护价值，并以其为因变量，以自然保护区的综合地形地貌为自变量，构建多元回归模型，同时以自然保护区的平均面积为基准，利用ArcGIS的创建"渔网"功能，将京津冀地区划分为1638个网格单元，利用构建的多元回归模型评估了这些网格单元的保护价值。结果表明：京津冀地区国家级自然保护区的保护价值平均得分为204分，比参评的全部35个自然保护区的平均分高40分；在省级自然保护区中也存在一些得分较高的自然保护区，如，唐海湿地自然保护区和河北南大港自然保护区，且超过了参评国家级自然保护区保护价值得分的平均值。京津冀地区的物种多样性保护优先区总面积为36791.35 km²，占京津冀地区总面积的16.94%，其中一级保护优先区面积4611.57 km²，二级保护优先区面积16045.79 km²，三级保护优先区面积16133.98 km²。这些区域主要分布在河北省和北京市的北部地区，区域内绝大部分以森林植被和灌丛植被为主。建议在未来的国家公园布局、生态环境保护工程布局中重点考虑这些地区。     

Monitoring Important Bird Areas in Africa: Towards a Sustainable and Scaleable System

The need for effective global monitoring of biodiversity is clearer than ever, but our measurements remain patchy and inadequate. In the biodiversity-rich tropics, a central problem is the sustainability of monitoring schemes. Locally-based, participatory approaches show promise in overcoming this problem, but may not contribute effectively to monitoring at larger scales. BirdLife International’s framework for monitoring Important Bird Areas (IBAs) in Africa is designed to be simple, robust and locally-grounded, but to produce scaleable results that can be compiled into national or regional indices. Focusing on key sites for bird conservation, identified according to standard criteria, the framework institutionalises monitoring in site management authorities and Site Support Groups (community-based organisations of local people working for conservation and sustainable development). A small, central monitoring unit co-ordinates the programme nationally, compiles, analyses and manages data, and provides feedback. ‘Basic’ monitoring (taking place at all sites) involves scoring of state, pressure and response trends using site information submitted on simple forms. ‘Detailed’ monitoring (taking place at a selected sub-set of sites) involves more intensive measurement of particular variables that relate to site management targets. IBA monitoring is now underway in at least 10 African countries, with implementation of the framework most advanced (thanks to a pilot project) in Kenya. The 2004 IBA monitoring report for Kenya provides extensive information on individual IBAs, plus indices for national trends in state, pressure and response, based on data from 49 out of 60 sites. The experience in Kenya shows that institutionalisation is vital, but takes considerable time and effort; that adequate co-ordination (including timely feedback) is key; and that participatory monitoring has many valuable benefits beyond the data collected. Further work is being undertaken to refine the process, improve its scientific underpinning, and strengthen the feedback loop from data and analysis to action on the ground.     

时空变化视角下北京市湿地优先保护格局

气候变化通过改变湿地水文过程等影响湿地的空间分布,城市化进程加剧了湿地破碎化程度并导致湿地生境退化,构建连续的湿地生态保护网络体系有利于应对气候变化和城市发展带来的负面影响、提高生物多样性保护水平。北京市现有湿地空间分布呈现斑块面积小、破碎化程度高等特点,为优化湿地保护区格局并应对气候变化和城市发展对北京市湿地生物多样性的影响,基于系统保护规划方法,以Marxan作为空间优化模型,结合PLUS模型和MaxEnt模型,模拟预测北京市湿地优先保护格局、识别湿地保护空缺并构建湿地分级保护区格局。研究表明:2020年北京市湿地存在80.15km²的保护空缺、2035年和2050年优化后湿地保护区占比分别为87.54%和85.95%,在满足本研究预设的生物多样性保护目标的前提下符合北京市湿地保护规划对湿地保护率的要求。为最优化资源分配,综合时空变化对湿地保护区空间分布的影响,构建了湿地分级保护区格局,将湿地保护区分为湿地永久保护区、湿地一级临时保护区和湿地二级临时保护区三个等级,以期为北京市分期建设湿地保护区、优化湿地生态保护网络体系和保护湿地生物多样性提供依据。     

Coastal forests of eastern Africa: status, endemism patterns and their potential causes

Eastern African coastal forests are located within the Swahili regional centre of endemism and Swahili-Maputaland regional transition zone in eastern Africa, between 1d? North and 25d? South, and 34—41d? East. Approximately 3167 km² coastal forest remains: 2 km² in Somalia, 660 km² in Kenya, 697 km² in Tanzania, 16 km² in Malawi, 3 km² in Zimbabwe and perhaps 1790 km² in Mozambique. Most forests are small (≤ 20 km²), and all but 19 are under 30 km² in area. Over 80% of coastal forest is located on government land, principally Forest Reserves; only 8.3 km² is found in National Parks (6.2 km² in Kenya (Arabuko-Sokoke), 2 km² in Tanzania (Mafia Island) and tiny patches in Zimbabwe). Coastal forests are an important and highly threatened centre of endemism for plants (c 550 endemic species), mammals (6 species), birds (9 species), reptiles (26 species), frogs (2 species), butterflies (79 species), snails (>86 species) and millipedes (>20 species). Endemic species are concentrated in the forests of the Tana River, between Malindi in Kenya to Tanga in northern Tanzania, and in southern Tanzania. Forests with highest numbers of endemics are: lower Tana River, Arabuko-Sokoke, Shimba Hills (Kenya); lowland East Usambara, Pugu Hills, Matumbi Hills, Rondo and Litipo and other plateaux near Lindi (Tanzania); the Tanzanian offshore island of Pemba; Bazaruto archipelago (Mozambique), and tiny forest remnants of southern Malawi, eastern Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Most coastal forest endemics have a narrow distributional range, often exhibiting single-site endemism or with scattered or disjunct distributional patterns. They are best interpreted as relicts and not the result of recent evolution. Relictualization probably started with the separation of the ancient Pan African rainforest into two parts during the Miocene. The coastal forests are interpreted as a ‘vanishing refuge’ with the endemic species gradually becoming more and more relict (and presumably extinct) due historically to climatic desiccation and more recently to human destruction.     

Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas for conserving range-restricted rain forest butterflies in Sabah,Borneo

Rain forests on Borneo support exceptional concentrations of endemic insect biodiversity, but many of these forest-dependent species are threatened by land-use change. Totally protected areas (TPAs) of forest are key for conserving biodiversity, and we examined the effectiveness of the current TPA network for conserving range-restricted butterflies in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo). We found that mean diurnal temperature range and precipitation of the wettest quarter of the year were the most important predictors of butterfly distributions (N = 77 range-restricted species), and that species richness increased with elevation and aboveground forest carbon. On average across all species, TPAs were effective at conserving ~43% of species’ ranges, but encompassed only ~40% of areas with high species richness (i.e., containing at least 50% of our study species). The TPA network also included only 33%–40% of areas identified as high priority for conserving range-restricted species, as determined by a systematic conservation prioritization analysis. Hence, the current TPA network is reasonably effective at conserving range-restricted butterflies, although considerable areas of high species richness (6,565 km²) and high conservation priority (11,152–12,531 km²) are not currently protected. Sabah's remaining forests, and the range-restricted species they support, are under continued threat from agricultural expansion and urban development, and our study highlights important areas of rain forest that require enhanced protection.     

基于ZONATION的岷山山系多物种保护规划

空间布局不尽合理是我国的自然保护区发展面临的问题之一,优化现有的自然保护区体系是在资源有限的情况下实现自然保护区的保护效益最大化的最佳途径。以岷山地区为主要研究区域,以25种珍稀濒危物种为主要研究对象,通过MAXENT与ZONATION模型模拟,鉴别出岷山地区珍稀濒危物种保护优先区,并提出了自然保护区空间选址的优化方案。研究结果表明,(1)在物种出现点记录较少的情况下,MAXENT模型依然能够比较准确地预测出物种的分布状况;(2)目前建立的保护区对25个物种的平均保护比例为51.8%;(3)通过ZONATION鉴定的优先区总面积为19958.7 km~2,岷山地区现有的29个自然保护区只保护了目标优先区的47.1%,九寨沟中部与南部,平武北部,平武与北川的交界处,北川西北部等地都存在保护空缺。建议在保护空缺的6个地方新建或扩建自然保护区,并在规划时考虑这些区域内部的优先次序。新提出的保护体系能将物种栖息地的保护比例提高至77.9%。研究结果对于岷山及全国其他生物多样性保护关键地区保护体系的规划都具有重要的借鉴意义。