High variability in patterns of population decline: the importance of local processes in species extinctions

A fundamental goal of conservation science is to improve conservation practice. Understanding species extinction patterns has been a central approach towards this objective. However, uncertainty remains about the extent to which species-level patterns reliably indicate population phenomena at the scale of local sites, where conservation ultimately takes place. Here, we explore the importance of both species- and site-specific components of variation in local population declines following habitat disturbance, and test a suite of hypotheses about their intrinsic and extrinsic drivers. To achieve these goals, we analyse an unusually detailed global dataset for species responses to habitat disturbance, namely primates in timber extraction systems, using cross-classified generalized linear mixed models. We show that while there are consistent differences in the severity of local population decline between species, an equal amount of variation also occurs between sites. The tests of our hypotheses further indicate that a combination of biological traits at the species level, and environmental factors at the site level, can help to explain these patterns. Specifically, primate populations show a more marked decline when the species is characterized by slow reproduction, high ecological requirements, low ecological flexibility and small body size; and when the local environment has had less time for recovery following disturbance. Our results demonstrate that individual species show a highly heterogeneous, yet explicable, pattern of decline. The increased recognition and elucidation of local-scale processes in species declines will improve our ability to conserve biodiversity in the future.     

Characterizing population vulnerability for 758 species

We investigate relationships between life history traits and the character of population dynamics as revealed by time series data. Our classification of time series is according to 'extinction category,' where we identify three classes of populations: (i) weakly varying populations with such high growth rates that long-term persistence is likely (unless some extreme catastrophe occurs); (ii) populations with such low growth rates that average population size must be large to buffer them against extinction in a variable environment; and (iii) highly variable populations that fluctuate so dramatically that dispersal or some other refuge mechanism is likely to be key to their avoidance of extinction. Using 1941 time series representing 758 species from the Global Population Dynamics Database, we find that, depending on the form of density dependence one assumes, between 46 and 90% of species exhibit dynamics that are so variable that even large carrying capacities could not buffer them against extinction on a 100-year time horizon. The fact that such a large proportion of population dynamics are so locally variable vindicates the growing realization that dispersal, habitat connectedness, and large-scale processes are key to local persistence. Furthermore, for mammals, simply by knowing body size, age at first reproduction, and average number of offspring we could correctly predict extinction categories for 83% of species (60 of 72).     

The global decline of freshwater megafauna

Freshwater ecosystems are among the most diverse and dynamic ecosystems on Earth. At the same time, they are among the most threatened ecosystems but remain underrepresented in biodiversity research and conservation efforts. The rate of decline of vertebrate populations is much higher in freshwaters than in terrestrial or marine realms. Freshwater megafauna (i.e., freshwater animals that can reach a body mass ≥30 kg) are intrinsically prone to extinction due to their large body size, complex habitat requirements and slow life‐history strategies such as long life span and late maturity. However, population trends and distribution changes of freshwater megafauna, at continental or global scales, remain unclear. In the present study, we compiled population data of 126 freshwater megafauna species globally from the Living Planet Database and available literature, and distribution data of 44 species inhabiting Europe and the United States from literature and databases of the International Union for Conservation of Nature and NatureServe. We quantified changes in population abundance and distribution range of freshwater megafauna species. Globally, freshwater megafauna populations declined by 88% from 1970 to 2012, with the highest declines in the Indomalaya and Palearctic realms (?99% and ?97%, respectively). Among taxonomic groups, mega‐fishes exhibited the greatest global decline (?94%). In addition, freshwater megafauna experienced major range contractions. For example, distribution ranges of 42% of all freshwater megafauna species in Europe contracted by more than 40% of historical areas. We highlight the various sources of uncertainty in tracking changes in populations and distributions of freshwater megafauna, such as the lack of monitoring data and taxonomic and spatial biases. The detected trends emphasize the critical plight of freshwater megafauna globally and highlight the broader need for concerted, targeted and timely conservation of freshwater biodiversity.     

种群生存力分析（PVA）的方法与应用

随着人们对资源的加速利用,生境丧失和破碎化导致物种濒危问题日益严重.以岛屿生物地理学为理论起源的种群生存力分析（PVA）,通过分析和模拟种群动态过程并建立灭绝概率与种群数量之间的关系,为濒危物种保护提供了重要的理论依据和研究途径.在过去的几十年中,种群生存力分析已成为保护生物学中一项重要的研究内容.目前种群生存力分析发展稳定,但对其实际预测能力和准确性尚存质疑,应用方面也有待进一步发展.种群生存力分析的进一步完善还需要在理论和方法上的创新,特别是籍于景观生态学和可持续性科学的理念,将空间分析手段、经济社会因素纳入到物种和种群的预测和管理上,从而使其具有更完整的理论基础和更高的实用价值.为此,本文对种群生存力分析的历史、基本概念、研究方法、模型应用和准确性进行了综述,并提出了有关的研究展望.     

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25–29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.     

Using population viability analysis,genomics, and habitat suitability to forecast future population patterns of Little Owl Athene noctua across Europe

The agricultural scene has changed over the past decades, resulting in a declining population trend in many species. It is therefore important to determine the factors that the individual species depend on in order to understand their decline. The landscape changes have also resulted in habitat fragmentation, turning once continuous populations into metapopulations. It is thus increasingly important to estimate both the number of individuals it takes to create a genetically viable population and the population trend. Here, population viability analysis and habitat suitability modeling were used to estimate population viability and future prospects across Europe of the Little Owl Athene noctua, a widespread species associated with agricultural landscapes. The results show a high risk of population declines over the coming 100 years, especially toward the north of Europe, whereas populations toward the southeastern part of Europe have a greater probability of persistence. In order to be considered genetically viable, individual populations must count 1,000–30,000 individuals. As Little Owl populations of several countries count <30,000, and many isolated populations in northern Europe count <1,000 individuals, management actions resulting in exchange of individuals between populations or even countries are probably necessary to prevent losing <1% genetic diversity over a 100‐year period. At a continental scale, a habitat suitability analysis suggested Little Owl to be affected positively by increasing temperatures and urban areas, whereas an increased tree cover, an increasing annual rainfall, grassland, and sparsely vegetated areas affect the presence of the owl negatively. However, the low predictive power of the habitat suitability model suggests that habitat suitability might be better explained at a smaller scale.     

Predation of experimental nests is linked to local population dynamics in a fragmented bird population

Artificial nest experiments (ANEs) are widely used to obtain proxies of natural nest predation for testing a variety of hypotheses, from those dealing with variation in life-history strategies to those assessing the effects of habitat fragmentation on the persistence of bird populations. However, their applicability to real-world scenarios has been criticized owing to the many potential biases in comparing predation rates of artificial and natural nests. Here, we aimed to test the validity of estimates of ANEs using a novel approach. We related predation rates on artificial nests to population viability analyses in a songbird metapopulation as a way of predicting the real impact of predation events on the local populations studied. Predation intensity on artificial nests was negatively related to the species' annual population growth rate in small local populations, whereas the viability of large local populations did not seem to be influenced, even by high nest predation rates. The potential of extrapolation from ANEs to real-world scenarios is discussed, as these results suggest that artificial nest predation estimates may predict demographic processes in small structured populations.     

Past population history versus recent population decline – founder effects in island species and their genetic signatures

Island populations are mostly characterized by low genetic diversity if compared with their mainland conspecifics. This is often explained as a consequence of founder effects in the wake of island colonization and concomitant bottlenecks. In a recent contribution, Stuessy et al. (Journal of Biogeography, 2012, 39, 1565–1566) point out that the genetic imprint of past founder effects is no longer visible today, as most island colonizations occurred millions of generations ago. The authors argue that low genetic diversity detectable today is mainly caused by recent environmental factors such as anthropogenic habitat destruction. This scenario should be complemented by the influence of long‐term isolation and small habitat size, which often lead to strong population fluctuations and repeated bottlenecks. In consequence, inbreeding and genetic drift, coupled with the potential effects of purging in small populations, may also result in genetic diversity remaining low for a long time after colonization.     

Evidence for a possible extinction debt in Swiss wetland specialist plants

1. Habitat loss leading to smaller patch sizes and decreasing connectivity is a major threat to global biodiversity. While some species vanish immediately after a change in habitat conditions, others show delayed extinction, that is, an extinction debt. In case of an extinction debt, the current species richness is higher than expected under present habitat conditions.
2. We investigated wetlands of the canton of Zürich in the lowlands of Eastern Switzerland where a wetland loss of 90% over the last 150 years occurred. We related current species richness to current and past patch area and connectivity (in 1850, 1900, 1950, and 2000). We compared current with predicted species richness in wetlands with a substantial loss in patch area based on the species‐area relationship of wetlands without substantial loss in patch area and studied relationships between the richness of different species groups and current and historical area and connectivity of wetland patches.
3. We found evidence of a possible extinction debt for long‐lived wetland specialist vascular plants: in wetlands, which substantially lost patch area, current species richness of long‐lived specialist vascular plants was higher than would have been expected based on current patch area. Additionally and besides current wetland area, historical area also explained current species richness of these species in a substantial and significant way. No evidence for an extinction debt in bryophytes was found.
4. The possible unpaid extinction debt in the wetlands of the canton of Zürich is an appeal to nature conservation, which has the possibility to prevent likely future extinctions of species through specific conservation measures. In particular, a further reduction in wetlands must be prevented and restoration measures must be taken to increase the number of wetlands.

     

A method for validating stochastic models of population viability: a case study of the mountain pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus)

1.  A method of validating stochastic models of population viability is proposed, based on assessing the mean and variance of the predicted population size.
2.  The method is illustrated with a model of the population dynamics of the mountain pygmy-possum ( Burramys parvus Broom 1895), based on annual census data collected from a single population in the Snowy Mountains of New South Wales, Australia between 1986 and 1997. The model incorporates density-dependence in survivorship and recruitment, and demographic and environmental stochasticity.
3.  The model appeared to make reasonable predictions for the three populations that were used for validation, provided the equilibrium population size was estimated accurately. This may require that differences in habitat quality between populations be taken into account.
4.  Following validation, the model was given new parameters using the additional data from the three populations, and the risk of population decline within the next 100 years was assessed. Although populations as small as 15 females are predicted to be relatively safe from extinction caused by stochastic processes, B. parvus appears vulnerable to loss of habitat and reductions in the population growth rate.
5.  The approach used in this paper is one of few attempts to validate a model of population viability using field data, and demonstrates that some aspects of stochastic population models can be tested.     

景观历史对物种多样性的影响: 以内蒙古伊敏露天煤矿为例

矿产开采等人类活动极大地改变着生态环境和景观格局, 景观变化又是导致区域和全球物种多样性丧失的主要原因之一。然而, 物种多样性对周边景观变化响应的时间尺度问题往往被人们忽略。作者以内蒙古草原区伊敏露天煤矿为例, 从物种和功能群两个层次上, 探讨了不同的空间范围(1 km、2 km、3 km、4 km、6 km、8 km、10 km)内在不同时期(1975年、1990年、2000年、2010年)的景观格局(景观优势度指数、生境综合连接度指数和生境连接度概率指数)与生物多样性之间的关系。结果显示: 当前物种多样性与开矿前和开矿初期周边景观格局之间的相关性更高, 而且与4–8 km缓冲区范围内景观格局之间的关系更加密切。不同功能群物种丰富度与景观格局之间的关系不同, 其中, 多年生根茎禾草物种丰富度和当前小尺度(1–3 km)景观格局之间呈显著相关; 多年生杂类草和开矿前和开矿初期大尺度(4–10 km)景观格局之间相关显著; 多年生丛生禾草与景观格局的相关性并未达到显著水平, 但是随着空间尺度的增加出现单峰趋势, 在6 km范围上最高; 灌木、半灌木与景观格局的相关关系随着空间尺度的增加而增加; 一二年生草本与景观格局的相关性始终最低。为此, 本文得出如下结论: (1)物种多样性对周边景观格局变化的响应存在一定时间的滞后, 人类当前不合理的土地利用方式可能引起未来一段时间内该地区一些物种的消失; (2)区域种库决定小尺度物种多样性的大小, 研究区4–8 km范围内具有连通性的生境斑块是主要的种库资源; (3)植物的繁殖策略及种子传播方式是破碎化生境中物种多样性维持的重要机制。     

Genetic and historic evidence for climate-driven population fragmentation in a top cetacean predator: the harbour porpoises in European water

Recent climate change has triggered profound reorganization in northeast Atlantic ecosystems, with substantial impact on the distribution of marine assemblages from plankton to fishes. However, assessing the repercussions on apex marine predators remains a challenging issue, especially for pelagic species. In this study, we use Bayesian coalescent modelling of microsatellite variation to track the population demographic history of one of the smallest temperate cetaceans, the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in European waters. Combining genetic inferences with palaeo-oceanographic and historical records provides strong evidence that populations of harbour porpoises have responded markedly to the recent climate-driven reorganization in the eastern North Atlantic food web. This response includes the isolation of porpoises in Iberian waters from those further north only approximately 300 years ago with a predominant northward migration, contemporaneous with the warming trend underway since the ‘Little Ice Age’ period and with the ongoing retreat of cold-water fishes from the Bay of Biscay. The extinction or exodus of harbour porpoises from the Mediterranean Sea (leaving an isolated relict population in the Black Sea) has lacked a coherent explanation. The present results suggest that the fragmentation of harbour distribution range in the Mediterranean Sea was triggered during the warm ‘Mid-Holocene Optimum’ period (approx. 5000 years ago), by the end of the post-glacial nutrient-rich ‘Sapropel’ conditions that prevailed before that time.     

Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon

Habitat conditions mediate the effects of climate, so neighboring populations with differing habitat conditions may differ in their responses to climate change. We have previously observed that juvenile survival in Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon is strongly correlated with summer temperature in some populations and with fall streamflow in others. Here, we explore potential differential responses of the viability of four of these populations to changes in streamflow and temperature that might result from climate change. First, we linked predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation from several General Circulation Models to a local hydrological model to project streamflow and air temperature under two climate‐change scenarios. Then, we developed a stochastic, density‐dependent life‐cycle model with independent environmental effects in juvenile and ocean stages, and parameterized the model for each population. We found that mean abundance decreased 20–50% and the probability of quasi‐extinction increased dramatically (from 0.1–0.4 to 0.3–0.9) for all populations in both scenarios. Differences between populations were greater in the more moderate climate scenario than in the more extreme, hot/dry scenario. Model results were relatively robust to realistic uncertainty in freshwater survival parameters in all scenarios. Our results demonstrate that detailed population models can usefully incorporate climate‐change predictions, and that global warming poses a direct threat to freshwater stages in these fish, increasing their risk of extinction. Because differences in habitat may contribute to the individualistic population responses we observed, we infer that maintaining habitat diversity will help buffer some species from the impacts of climate change.     

种群生存力分析:准确性和保护应用

目前已提出了五类估计濒危物种绝灭风险的种群生存力分析模型 ,即 :分析模型、单种群确定性模型、单种群随机模型、异质种群模型和显空间模型。模型的选择取决于物种的生活史特征和可用的数据。与用于保护实践的其他方法相比 ,种群生存力分析 (PVA)是相对准确的量化工具。然而 ,一些濒危物种种群统计学数据质量差和种群动态的有关假说模糊不清可能影响到模型预测的准确性 ,因此 ,要谨慎地使用PVA。在西方国家 ,PVA在濒危物种保护计划和管理中应用越来越广泛。它主要用于 :( 1)预测濒危物种未来的种群大小 ;( 2 )估计一定时间内物种的绝灭风险 ;( 3 )评估一套保护措施 ,确定哪个能使种群的存活时间最长 ;( 4)探索不同假说对小种群动态的影响 ;( 5 )指导濒危动物野外数据的搜集工作。我国的濒危物种很多 ,然而开展PVA研究的濒危物种却很少。应大力发展适合于模拟我国特有濒危物种及其保护问题的PVA模型     

The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979–2019) and Bayesian state‐space models to assess the African penguin Spheniscus demersus population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed. The global African penguin population met the threshold for Endangered with a high probability (97%), having declined by almost 65% since 1989. An historical low of ~17,700 pairs bred in 2019. Annual changes were faster in the South African population (?4.2%, highest posterior density interval, HPDI: ?7.8 to ?0.6%) than the Namibian one (?0.3%, HPDI: ?3.3 to +2.6%), and since 1999 were almost ?10% at South African colonies north of Cape Town. Over the 40‐year period, the Eastern Cape colonies went from holding ~25% of the total penguin population to ~40% as numbers decreased more rapidly elsewhere. These changes coincided with an altered abundance and availability of the main prey of African penguins. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines in space as well as time and highlight which penguin colonies require urgent conservation attention.     

Changes in landscape composition influence the decline of a threatened woodland caribou population

1. Large-scale habitat loss is frequently identified with loss of biodiversity, but examples of the direct effect of habitat alterations on changes in vital rates remain rare. Quantifying and understanding the relationship between habitat composition and changes in vital rates, however, is essential for the development of effective conservation strategies. 2. It has been suggested that the decline of woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations in North America is precipitated by timber harvesting that creates landscapes of early seral forests. Such habitat changes have altered the predator-prey system resulting in asymmetric predation, where predators are maintained by alternative prey (i.e. apparent competition). However, a direct link between habitat condition and caribou population declines has not been documented. 3. We estimated survival probabilities for the threatened arboreal lichen-feeding ecotype of woodland caribou in British Columbia, Canada, at two different spatial scales. At the broader scale, observed variation in adult female survival rates among 10 distinct populations (range = 0.67-0.93) was best explained by variation in the amount of early seral stands within population ranges and population density. At the finer scale, home ranges of caribou killed by predators had lower proportions of old forest and more mid-aged forest as compared with multi-annual home ranges where caribou were alive. 4. These results are consistent with predictions from the apparent competition hypothesis and quantify direct fitness consequences for caribou following habitat alterations. We conclude that apparent competition can cause rapid population declines and even extinction where changes in species composition occur following large scale habitat change.