Models to understand the population-level impact of mixed strain M. tuberculosis infections

Over the past decade, numerous studies have identified tuberculosis patients in whom more than one distinct strain of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is present. While it has been shown that these mixed strain infections can reduce the probability of treatment success for individuals simultaneously harboring both drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains, it is not yet known if and how this phenomenon impacts the long-term dynamics for tuberculosis within communities. Strain-specific differences in immunogenicity and associations with drug resistance suggest that a better understanding of how strains compete within hosts will be necessary to project the effects of mixed strain infections on the future burden of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tuberculosis. In this paper, we develop a modeling framework that allows us to investigate mechanisms of strain competition within hosts and to assess the long-term effects of such competition on the ecology of strains in a population. These models permit us to systematically evaluate the importance of unknown parameters and to suggest priority areas for future experimental research. Despite the current scarcity of data to inform the values of several model parameters, we are able to draw important qualitative conclusions from this work. We find that mixed strain infections may promote the coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains in two ways. First, mixed strain infections allow a strain with a lower basic reproductive number to persist in a population where it would otherwise be outcompeted if has competitive advantages within a co-infected host. Second, some individuals progressing to phenotypically drug-sensitive tuberculosis from a state of mixed drug-sensitive and drug-resistant infection may retain small subpopulations of drug-resistant bacteria that can flourish once the host is treated with antibiotics. We propose that these types of mixed infections, by increasing the ability of low fitness drug-resistant strains to persist, may provide opportunities for compensatory mutations to accumulate and for relatively fit, highly drug-resistant strains of M. tuberculosis to emerge.     

Modeling epidemics of multidrug-resistant M. tuberculosis of heterogeneous fitness

Mathematical models have recently been used to predict the future burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB). These models suggest the threat of multidrug resistance to TB control will depend on the relative 'fitness' of MDR strains and imply that if the average fitness of MDR strains is considerably less than that of drug-sensitive strains, the emergence of resistance will not jeopardize the success of tuberculosis control efforts. Multidrug resistance in M. tuberculosis is conferred by the sequential acquisition of a number of different single-locus mutations that have been shown to have heterogeneous phenotypic effects. Here we model the impact of initial fitness estimates on the emergence of MDRTB assuming that the relative fitness of MDR strains is heterogeneous. We find that even when the average relative fitness of MDR strains is low and a well-functioning control program is in place, a small subpopulation of a relatively fit MDR strain may eventually outcompete both the drug-sensitive strains and the less fit MDR strains. These results imply that current epidemiological measures and short-term trends in the burden of MDRTB do not provide evidence that MDRTB strains can be contained in the absence of specific efforts to limit transmission from those with MDR disease.     

Hidden Drug Resistant HIV to Emerge in the Era of Universal Treatment Access in Southeast Asia

Background

Universal access to first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection is becoming more of a reality in most low and middle income countries in Asia. However, second-line therapies are relatively scarce.

Methods and Findings

We developed a mathematical model of an HIV epidemic in a Southeast Asian setting and used it to forecast the impact of treatment plans, without second-line options, on the potential degree of acquisition and transmission of drug resistant HIV strains. We show that after 10 years of universal treatment access, up to 20% of treatment-naïve individuals with HIV may have drug-resistant strains but it depends on the relative fitness of viral strains.

Conclusions

If viral load testing of people on ART is carried out on a yearly basis and virological failure leads to effective second-line therapy, then transmitted drug resistance could be reduced by 80%. Greater efforts are required for minimizing first-line failure, to detect virological failure earlier, and to procure access to second-line therapies.     

Impact of bacterial genetics on the transmission of isoniazid-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Understanding the ecology of drug-resistant pathogens is essential for devising rational programs to preserve the effective lifespan of antimicrobial agents and to abrogate epidemics of drug-resistant organisms. Mathematical models predict that strain fitness is an important determinant of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission, but the effects of strain diversity have been largely overlooked. Here we compared the impact of resistance mutations on the transmission of isoniazid-resistant M. tuberculosis in San Francisco during a 9-y period. Strains with a KatG S315T or inhA promoter mutation were more likely to spread than strains with other mutations. The impact of these mutations on the transmission of isoniazid-resistant strains was comparable to the effect of other clinical determinants of transmission. Associations were apparent between specific drug resistance mutations and the main M. tuberculosis lineages. Our results show that in addition to host and environmental factors, strain genetic diversity can influence the transmission dynamics of drug-resistant bacteria.     

Evolutionary Epidemiology of Drug-Resistance in Space

How can we optimize the use of drugs against parasites to limit the evolution of drug resistance? This question has been addressed by many theoretical studies focusing either on the mixing of various treatments, or their temporal alternation. Here we consider a different treatment strategy where the use of the drug may vary in space to prevent the rise of drug-resistance. We analyze epidemiological models where drug-resistant and drug-sensitive parasites compete in a one-dimensional spatially heterogeneous environment. Two different parasite life-cycles are considered: (i) direct transmission between hosts, and (ii) vector-borne transmission. In both cases we find a critical size of the treated area, under which the drug-resistant strain cannot persist. This critical size depends on the basic reproductive ratios of each strain in each environment, on the ranges of dispersal, and on the duration of an infection with drug-resistant parasites. We discuss optimal treatment strategies that limit disease prevalence and the evolution of drug-resistance.     

Persistence of transmitted drug resistance among subjects with primary human immunodeficiency virus infection

Following interruption of antiretroviral therapy among individuals with acquired drug resistance, preexisting drug-sensitive virus emerges relatively rapidly. In contrast, wild-type virus is not archived in individuals infected with drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and thus cannot emerge rapidly in the absence of selective drug pressure. Fourteen recently HIV-infected patients with transmitted drug-resistant virus were followed for a median of 2.1 years after the estimated date of infection (EDI) without receiving antiretroviral therapy. HIV drug resistance and pol replication capacity (RC) in longitudinal plasma samples were assayed. Resistance mutations were characterized as pure populations or mixtures. The mean time to first detection of a mixture of wild-type and drug-resistant viruses was 96 weeks (1.8 years) (95% confidence interval, 48 to 192 weeks) after the EDI. The median time to loss of detectable drug resistance using population-based assays ranged from 4.1 years (conservative estimate) to longer than the lifetime of the individual (less conservative estimate). The transmission of drug-resistant virus was not associated with virus with reduced RC. Sexual transmission of HIV selects for highly fit drug-resistant variants that persist for years. The prolonged persistence of transmitted drug resistance strongly supports the routine use of HIV resistance genotyping for all newly diagnosed individuals.     

Emergence of drug resistance: implications for antiviral control of pandemic influenza

Given the danger of an unprecedented spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 in humans, and great challenges to the development of an effective influenza vaccine, antiviral drugs will probably play a pivotal role in combating a novel pandemic strain. A critical limitation to the use of these drugs is the evolution of highly transmissible drug-resistant viral mutants. Here, we develop a mathematical model to evaluate the potential impact of an antiviral treatment strategy on the emergence of drug resistance and containment of a pandemic. The results show that elimination of the wild-type strain depends crucially on both the early onset of treatment in indexed cases and population-level treatment. Given the probable delay of 0.5-1 day in seeking healthcare and therefore initiating therapy, the findings indicate that a single strategy of antiviral treatment will be unsuccessful at controlling the spread of disease if the reproduction number of the wild-type strain (R0s) exceeds 1.4. We demonstrate the possible occurrence of a self-sustaining epidemic of resistant strain, in terms of its transmission fitness relative to the wild-type, and the reproduction number R0s. Considering reproduction numbers estimated for the past three pandemics, the findings suggest that an uncontrollable pandemic is likely to occur if resistant viruses with relative transmission fitness above 0.4 emerge. While an antiviral strategy is crucial for containing a pandemic, its effectiveness depends critically on timely and strategic use of drugs.     

Transmission Dynamics of an Influenza Model with Vaccination and Antiviral Treatment

Vaccination and antiviral treatment are two important prevention and control measures for the spread of influenza. However, the benefit of antiviral use can be compromised if drug-resistant strains arise. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model to explore the impact of vaccination and antiviral treatment on the transmission dynamics of influenza. The model includes both drug-sensitive and resistant strains. Analytical results of the model show that the quantities ℛ _SC and ℛ _RC , which represent the control reproduction numbers of the sensitive and resistant strains, respectively, provide threshold conditions that determine the competitive outcomes of the two strains. These threshold conditions can be used to gain important insights into the effect of vaccination and treatment on the prevention and control of influenza. Numerical simulations are also conducted to confirm and extend the analytic results. The findings imply that higher levels of treatment may lead to an increase of epidemic size, and the extent to which this occurs depends on other factors such as the rates of vaccination and resistance development. This suggests that antiviral treatment should be implemented appropriately.     

Antimicrobial susceptibility and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of Shigella sonnei strains in Malaysia (1997-2000)

AIMS: Antimicrobial resistance of Shigella sonnei from Malaysia was determined and subtyping was carried by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) to assess the extent of genetic diversity of these strains. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 62 isolates of S. sonnei from sporadic cases of shigellosis in different parts of Malaysia were studied by antimicrobial susceptibility test and PFGE. Approximately 35.5% of the strains showed resistance to three or more antimicrobial agents. Eight resistant phenotypes, i.e. RI to RVIII, was defined. Resistant phenotype RV and RVIII only appeared in year 2000. PFGE analysis with NotI and XbaI restriction showed that a great heterogeneity existed at the DNA level among Malaysian S. sonnei isolates. Fifty-eight NotI and 61 XbaI-PFGE profiles were observed in 63 S. sonnei isolates, including ATCC 11060 isolate. Drug sensitive isolates displayed very different profiles from drug-resistant isolates, with a few exceptions. Isolates of resistant phenotype RVI (SXTr.TETr.STRr) showed a greater similarity among each other compared with isolates of resistant phenotype RI and drug-sensitive isolates. CONCLUSION: Multi-drug-resistant S. sonnei were circulated in different parts of Malaysia and the emergence of new resistant phenotype was observed. Wide genetic variations among Malaysian S. sonnei were observed and the drug-sensitive strains could be differentiated from drug-resistant strains by PFGE. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The present study verifies the usefulness of PFGE in characterizing and comparing strains of S. sonnei. Minor variations among S. sonnei isolates could be detected by PFGE.     

Modeling the emergence of HIV-1 drug resistance resulting from antiretroviral therapy: insights from theoretical and numerical studies

The use of antiretroviral therapy has proven to be remarkably effective in controlling the progression of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and prolonging patient's survival. Therapy however may fail and therefore these benefits can be compromised by the emergence of HIV strains that are resistant to the therapy. In view of these facts, the question of finding the reason for which drug-resistant strains emerge during therapy has become a worldwide problem of great interest. This paper presents a deterministic HIV-1 model to examine the mechanisms underlying the emergence of drug-resistance during therapy. The aim of this study is to determine whether, and how fast, antiretroviral therapy may determine the emergence of drug resistance by calculating the basic reproductive numbers. The existence, feasibility and local stability of the equilibriums are also analyzed. By performing numerical simulations we show that Hopf bifurcation may occur. The model suggests that the individuals with drug-resistant infection may play an important role in the epidemic of HIV.     

Enzymatic differences between hycanthone-resistant and sensitive strains of Schistosoma mansoni

1. Hycanthone-sensitive and resistant adult worms of Schistosoma mansoni were found to have generally similar specific activities in ten enzymes of carbohydrate metabolism. 2. Kinetic analyses revealed that pyruvate kinase, glucose-6-phosphate (G6P) dehydrogenase and malate dehydrogenase from both strains possessed similar Michaelis-Menten constants and were not inhibited by hycanthone. 3. Hexokinase and lactate dehydrogenase from the drug-resistant strain were not inhibited by hycanthone and showed three to five times greater Km values than those from the drug-sensitive worms which were also inhibitable by hycanthone. 4. Hycanthone more drastically affected the Vmax of phosphofructokinase from the hycanthone-sensitive parasite. 5. These data showed that the hycanthone inhibitable enzymes were generally from the drug-sensitive strain whereas the enzymes from drug-resistant worms are mostly hycanthone insensitive.     

Targeting Imperfect Vaccines against Drug-Resistance Determinants: A Strategy for Countering the Rise of Drug Resistance

The growing prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in major pathogens is outpacing discovery of new antimicrobial classes. Vaccines mitigate the effect of antimicrobial resistance by reducing the need for treatment, but vaccines for many drug-resistant pathogens remain undiscovered or have limited efficacy, in part because some vaccines selectively favor pathogen strains that escape vaccine-induced immunity. A strain with even a modest advantage in vaccinated hosts can have high fitness in a population with high vaccine coverage, which can offset a strong selection pressure such as antimicrobial use that occurs in a small fraction of hosts. We propose a strategy to target vaccines against drug-resistant pathogens, by using resistance-conferring proteins as antigens in multicomponent vaccines. Resistance determinants may be weakly immunogenic, offering only modest specific protection against resistant strains. Therefore, we assess here how varying the specific efficacy of the vaccine against resistant strains would affect the proportion of drug-resistant vs. –sensitive strains population-wide for three pathogens – Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, and influenza virus – in which drug resistance is a problem. Notably, if such vaccines confer even slightly higher protection (additional efficacy between 1% and 8%) against resistant variants than sensitive ones, they may be an effective tool in controlling the rise of resistant strains, given current levels of use for many antimicrobial agents. We show that the population-wide impact of such vaccines depends on the additional effect on resistant strains and on the overall effect (against all strains). Resistance-conferring accessory gene products or resistant alleles of essential genes could be valuable as components of vaccines even if their specific protective effect is weak.     

Management of drug resistance in the population: influenza as a case study

The rise of drug resistance remains a major impediment to the treatment of some diseases caused by fast-evolving pathogens that undergo genetic mutations. Models describing the within-host infectious dynamics suggest that the resistance is unlikely to emerge if the pathogen-specific immune responses are maintained above a certain threshold during therapy. However, emergence of resistance in the population involves both within-host and between-host infection mechanisms. Here, we employ a mathematical model to identify an effective treatment strategy for the management of drug resistance in the population. We show that, in the absence of pre-existing immunity, the population-wide spread of drug-resistant pathogen strains can be averted if a sizable portion of susceptible hosts is depleted before drugs are used on a large scale. The findings, based on simulations for influenza infection as a case study, suggest that the initial prevalence of the drug-sensitive strain under low pressure of drugs, followed by a timely implementation of intensive treatment, can minimize the total number of infections while preventing outbreaks of drug-resistant infections.     

Drug resistance in tuberculosis--a reinfection model

There is increasing recognition that reinfection is an important component of TB transmission. Moreover, it has been shown that partial immunity has significant epidemiological consequences, particularly in what concerns disease prevalence and effectiveness of control measures. We address the problem of drug resistance as a competition between two types of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis: those that are sensitive to anti-tuberculosis drugs and those that are resistant. Our objective is to characterise the role of reinfection in the transmission of drug-resistant tuberculosis. The long-term behaviour of our model reflects how reinfection modifies the conditions for coexistence of sensitive and resistant strains. This sets the scene for discussing how strain prevalence is affected by different control strategies. It is shown that intervention effectiveness is highly sensitive to the baseline epidemiological setting.     

Drug resistance-conferring mutations in Mycobacterium tuberculosis from Madang, Papua New Guinea

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Monitoring drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis is essential to curb the spread of tuberculosis (TB). Unfortunately, drug susceptibility testing is currently not available in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and that impairs TB control in this country. We report for the first time M. tuberculosis mutations associated with resistance to first and second-line anti-TB drugs in Madang, PNG. A molecular cluster analysis was performed to identify M. tuberculosis transmission in that region. RESULTS: Phenotypic drug susceptibility tests showed 15.7% resistance to at least one drug and 5.2% multidrug resistant (MDR) TB. Rifampicin resistant strains had the rpoB mutations D516F, D516Y or S531L; isoniazid resistant strains had the mutations katG S315T or inhA promoter C15T; streptomycin resistant strains had the mutations rpsL K43R, K88Q, K88R), rrs A514C or gidB V77G. The molecular cluster analysis indicated evidence for transmission of resistant strain. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a substantial rate of MDR-TB in the Madang area of PNG associated with mutations in specific genes. A close monitoring of drug resistance is therefore urgently required, particularly in the presence of drug-resistant M. tuberculosis transmission. In the absence of phenotypic drug susceptibility testing in PNG, molecular assays for drug resistance monitoring would be of advantage.     

Controlling Antimicrobial Resistance through Targeted,Vaccine-Induced Replacement of Strains

Vaccination has proven effective in controlling many infectious diseases. However, differential effectiveness with regard to pathogen genotype is a frequent reason for failures in vaccine development. Often, insufficient immune response is induced to prevent infection by the diversity of existing serotypes present in pathogenic populations of bacteria. These vaccines that target a too narrow spectrum of serotypes do not offer sufficient prevention of infections, and can also lead to undesirable strain replacements. Here, we examine a novel idea to specifically exploit the narrow spectrum coverage of some vaccines to combat specific, emerging multi- and pan-resistant strains of pathogens. Application of a narrow-spectrum vaccine could serve to prevent infections by some strains that are hard to treat, rather than offer the vaccinated individual protection against infections by the pathogenic species as such. We suggest that vaccines targeted to resistant serotypes have the potential to become important public health tools, and would represent a new approach toward reducing the burden of particular multi-resistant strains occurring in hospitals. Vaccines targeting drug-resistant serotypes would also be the first clinical intervention with the potential to drive the evolution of pathogenic populations toward drug-sensitivity. We illustrate the feasibility of this approach by modeling a hypothetical vaccine that targets a subset of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) genotypes, in combination with drug treatment targeted at drug-sensitive genotypes. We find that a combined intervention strategy can limit nosocomial outbreaks, even when vaccine efficacy is imperfect. The broader utility of vaccine-based resistance control strategies should be further explored taking into account population structure, and the resistance and transmission patterns of the pathogen considered.     

Alteration in properties of thymidylate synthetase from pyrimethamine-resistant Plasmodium chabaudi

Alteration in properties of thymidylate synthetase from pyrimethamine-resistant smodium chabaudi. International Journal for Parasitology16: 483–490. Thymidylate synthetase from cloned strains of pyrimethamine-sensitive and resistant P. chubaudi were partially purified and characterized. The enzyme from both strains have equal mol. wt of 120,000 as estimated by Sephadex G-200 column chromatography. The enzyme from drug-sensitive parasites has an optimum pH of 6.5–7.5 and is stable at pH 4–11 while that from drug-resistant strain has an pH optimum of 7.0–8.0 and is stable at pH 5–10. The K_m for methylenetetrahydrofolate are 206 ± 6 and 495 ± 5 μm for the enzyme from drug-resistant and sensitive parasites, respectively. The K_m for dUMP of the enzyme from drug-resistant and sensitive parasites are 42 ± 1 and 49 ± 6 μm, respectively. Inhibition of the enzyme from both strains by FdUMP are competitive with dUMP; however,the K_is for the enzyme from drug-resistant strain (0.043 ± 0.005 μm) is less than that from drug-sensitive strain (0.11 ± 0.007 μm) by a factor of 2.5. The K_ii for methotrexate with respect to methylenetetrahydrofolate of the enzyme from drug-resistant parasites (58 ± 3 μm) is 3 times larger than that from drug-sensitive parasites (17 ± 1 μm).