Multilocus model of sympatric speciation. III. Computer simulations

In the previous papers some analytical results were obtained for the limit stages of sympatric speciation. The present paper aims at finding the scope of validity for these results. The Monte Carlo computer model of this process was created and studied. We deal with two aspects of the speciation process: the development of reproductive isolation between the forming species and the extinction of the intermediate individuals. It has been shown that the advantage of the allele of reproductive isolation increases with the growth of its frequency. The extinction of the intermediates goes differently with various numbers of loci involved in speciation. If reproductive isolation is due to differences in two or four loci, then the completion of extinction of the intermediates requires the strongest disruptive selection, so that the necessary conditions for speciation found previously are also proved to be sufficient. But with eight and probably with a larger number of loci, the selection required to promote speciation in a population that is far from it is considerably stronger than selection needed at the last stage of speciation. Consequently, under some intensities of disruptive selection the final state of a population depends initial state. The conditions under which the stationary state of a population is characterized by bimodal distribution of phenotypes are also found.     

Multilocus model of sympatric speciation II. Two characters

The method used in the previous paper (Kondrashov, 1983Theor. Pop. Biol.27, 000-000) is applied to population polymorphic at two quantitative characters. Sympatric speciation is found to be possible in the case when difference in two characters is necessary for reproductive isolation. The influence of various factors on the process of sympatric speciation is studied and selection forces necessary for its completion are found. Speciation occurs more readily under the action both of disruptive selection in separate characters and of selection against individuals with “unbalanced” phenotypes. This type of selection is also most realistic when various phenotypes make use of different niches. The results obtained allow the supposition that the possibility of sympatric speciation is not reduced to a few cases when reproductive isolation between the forming species develops due to minor genetic differences. It is also shown that if one of the characters is not directly involved in the processes concerning speciation then the forming species do not differ in the character. Relative frequencies of the intermediate phenotypes are found for the terminal stage of speciation.     

Modelling the adaptive dynamics of traits involved in inter- and intraspecific interactions: An assessment of three methods

In recent years, three related methods have been used to model the phenotypic dynamics of traits under the influence of natural selection. The first is based on an approximation to quantitative genetic recursion equations for sexual populations. The second is based on evolution in asexual lineages with mutation-generated variation. The third method finds an evolutionarily stable set of phenotypes for species characterized by a given set of fitness functions, assuming that the mode of reproduction places no constraints on the number of distinct types that can be maintained in the population. The three methods share the property that the rate of change of a trait within a homogeneous population is approximately proportional to the individual fitness gradient. The methods differ in assumptions about the potential magnitude of phenotypic differences in mutant forms, and in their assumptions about the probability that invasion or speciation occurs when a species has a stable, yet invadable phenotype. Determining the range of applicability of the different methods is important for assessing the validity of optimization methods in predicting the evolutionary outcome of ecological interactions. Methods based on quantitative genetic models predict that fitness minimizing traits will often be evolutionarily stable over significant time periods, while other approaches suggest this is likely to be rare. A more detailed study of cases of disruptive selection might reveal whether fitness-minimizing traits occur frequently in natural communities.     

How do natural and sexual selection contribute to sympatric speciation?

I use explicit genetic models to investigate the importance of natural and sexual selection during sympatric speciation and to sort out how genetic architecture influences these processes. Assortative mating alone can lead to speciation, but rare phenotypes' disadvantage in finding mates and intermediate phenotypes' advantage due to stabilizing selection strongly impede speciation. Any increase in the number of loci also decreases the likelihood of speciation. Sympatric speciation is then harder to achieve than previously demonstrated by many theoretical studies which assume no mating disadvantage for rare phenotypes and consider a small number of loci. However, when a high level of assortative mating evolves, sexual selection might allow populations to split into dimorphic distributions with peaks corresponding to nearly extreme phenotypes. Competition then works against speciation by favouring intermediate phenotypes and preventing further divergence. The interplay between natural and sexual selection during speciation is then more complex than previously explained.     

Sympatric speciation: when is it possible?

This paper is written to compare the results of theoretical investigations of sympatric speciation with the relevant experimental data. We understand sympatric speciation as a formation of species out of a population whose spatial structure is not important genetically. A necessary prerequisite for speciation is an action of disruptive selection on sufficiently polymorphic traits. The present analysis confirms the view that such a selection is ecologically realistic. The genetical part of speciation begins with a development of reproductive isolation between those individuals that are opposed in some characters. It is shown that selection for reproductive isolation may be quite strong. Extinction of intermediate individuals, which completes speciation, proceeds under a wide range of conditions, including those when the newly formed species differ in quantitative characters, though most of the genes arc likely to remain the same in both species. The whole process seems possible if differences in several (up to 10) loci are sufficient to adapt the forming species to different niches and to establish reproductive isolation. It is shown that populations with bimodal distributions of some genetically determined quantitative characters can have a considerable life-time. Such distributions may be formed either as a transition stage of sympatric speciation or represent a stationary state under conditions close to those necessary to complete speciation. They are very important for experimental investigations. Sympatric speciation always follows the same principal course; it does not contradict the idea of a genome coadaptedness. The occurrence of sympatric speciation is different for different taxa depending rather on how frequently populations are subjected to the appropriate kind of selection than on their ability to obey it.     

Does competitive divergence occur if assortative mating is costly?

Most models of sympatric speciation have assumed that assortative mating has no costs. A few studies, however, have shown that the costs for being choosy can prevent such speciation. Here, we investigate the role of the strength of assortment and of the costs for being choosy for a simple genetic model of a single ('magic') trait that mediates both intraspecific competition for a continuum of resources and assortative mating, which is induced by choosy females who preferentially mate with males of similar phenotype. Choosiness may be costly if it is difficult to find a mating partner. Such magic trait models are considered to be most conducive of sympatric speciation. We consider a sexually reproducing population of haploid individuals that is density regulated. The trait is determined by a single locus with multiple alleles. The strength of stabilizing selection (caused by a unimodal resource distribution), the strength of competition, the degree of assortment and the costs for being choosy are independent parameters. We investigate analytically and numerically how these parameters determine the equilibrium and stability structure. In particular, we identify conditions under which no polymorphism at all is maintained as well as conditions under which strong competitive divergence occurs, or the population even splits into two reproductively isolated classes of highly diverse phenotypes. If costs are absent or moderate, genetic variability tends to be minimized at intermediate strengths of assortment, and reproductively isolated classes of phenotypes are a likely result of evolution only for intermediate or strong competition and for very strong assortment. The likelihood of divergence depends relatively weakly on the costs as long as they are not high. With high costs, however, increasingly strong assortment rapidly depletes all genetic variation, and strong competitive divergence is prevented.     

Field studies reveal strong postmating isolation between ecologically divergent butterfly populations

Gene flow between populations that are adapting to distinct environments may be restricted if hybrids inherit maladaptive, intermediate phenotypes. This phenomenon, called extrinsic postzygotic isolation (EPI), is thought to play a critical role in the early stages of speciation. However, despite its intuitive appeal, we know surprisingly little about the strength and prevalence of EPI in nature, and even less about the specific phenotypes that tend to cause problems for hybrids. In this study, we searched for EPI among allopatric populations of the butterfly Euphydryas editha that have specialized on alternative host plants. These populations recall a situation thought typical of the very early stages of speciation. They lack consistent host-associated genetic differentiation at random nuclear loci and show no signs of reproductive incompatibility in the laboratory. However, they do differ consistently in diverse host-related traits. For each of these traits, we first asked whether hybrids between populations that use different hosts (different-host hybrids) were intermediate to parental populations and to hybrids between populations that use the same host (same-host hybrids). We then conducted field experiments to estimate the effects of intermediacy on fitness in nature. Our results revealed strong EPI under field conditions. Different-host hybrids exhibited an array of intermediate traits that were significantly maladaptive, including four behaviors. Intermediate foraging height slowed the growth of larvae, while intermediate oviposition preference, oviposition site height, and clutch size severely reduced the growth and survival of the offspring of adult females. We used our empirical data to construct a fitness surface on which different-host hybrids can be seen to fall in an adaptive valley between two peaks occupied by same-host hybrids. These findings demonstrate how ecological selection against hybrids can create a strong barrier to gene flow at the early stages of adaptive divergence.     

When can ecological speciation be detected with neutral loci?

It is not yet clear under what conditions empirical studies can reliably detect progress toward ecological speciation through the analysis of allelic variation at neutral loci. We use a simulation approach to investigate the range of parameter space under which such detection is, and is not, likely. We specifically test for the conditions under which divergent natural selection can cause a ‘generalized barrier to gene flow’ that is present across the genome. Our individual‐based numerical simulations focus on how population divergence at neutral loci varies in relation to recombination rate with a selected locus, divergent selection on that locus, migration rate and population size. We specifically test whether genetic differences at neutral markers are greater between populations in different environments than between populations in similar environments. We find that this expected signature of ecological speciation can be detected under part of the parameter space, most consistently when divergent selection is strong and migration is intermediate. By contrast, the expected signature of ecological speciation is not reliably detected when divergent selection is weak or migration is low or high. These findings provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of using neutral markers to infer ecological speciation in natural systems.     

Divergence in mate choice systems: does evolution play by rules?

Understanding the genetic bases of phenotypes associated with the earliest stages of divergence will reveal a great deal about species formation. I review a number of model systems, most involving plant–insect interactions, that have already revealed genetic aspects of incipient speciation. It is suggested that progress in understanding the causal forces driving mating signal evolution and incipient speciation will be expedited in model systems where; (1) ecological and evolutionary information is available, (2) different aspects of mating behaviors that function in mate and/or species recognition are known, (3) genetic analysis of single phenotypes is undertaken, (4) analysis of sexual selection and isolation is performed under natural conditions (or in the wild), and (5) comparative data from related species are available to assess phylogenetic trends.     

Sympatric speciation by sexual selection alone is unlikely

According to Darwin, sympatric speciation is driven by disruptive, frequency-dependent natural selection caused by competition for diverse resources. Recently, several authors have argued that disruptive sexual selection can also cause sympatric speciation. Here, we use hypergeometric phenotypic and individual-based genotypic models to explore sympatric speciation by sexual selection under a broad range of conditions. If variabilities of preference and display traits are each caused by more than one or two polymorphic loci, sympatric speciation requires rather strong sexual selection when females exert preferences for extreme male phenotypes. Under this kind of mate choice, speciation can occur only if initial distributions of preference and display are close to symmetric. Otherwise, the population rapidly loses variability. Thus, unless allele replacements at very few loci are enough for reproductive isolation, female preferences for extreme male displays are unlikely to drive sympatric speciation. By contrast, similarity-based female preferences that do not cause sexual selection are less destabilizing to the maintenance of genetic variability and may result in sympatric speciation across a broader range of initial conditions. Certain groups of African cichlids have served as the exclusive motivation for the hypothesis of sympatric speciation by sexual selection. Mate choice in these fishes appears to be driven by female preferences for extreme male phenotypes rather than similarity-based preferences, and the evolution of premating reproductive isolation commonly involves at least several genes. Therefore, differences in female preferences and male display in cichlids and other species of sympatric origin are more likely to have evolved as isolating mechanisms under disruptive natural selection.     

Intraspecific competitive divergence and convergence under assortative mating

Ecologically driven sympatric speciation has received much attention recently. We investigate a multilocus model of a quantitative trait that is under frequency-dependent selection caused by intraspecific competition and acts as mating character for assortment. We identify the conditions that lead to the establishment of reproductively isolated clusters. This may be interpreted as evolutionary splitting or sympatric speciation. In our model, there are parameters that independently determine the strength of assortment, the costs for being choosy, and the strength of frequency-dependent natural selection. Sufficiently strong frequency dependence leads to disruptive selection on the phenotypes. The population consists of (sexual) haploid individuals. If frequency dependence is strong enough to induce disruptive selection and costs are absent or low, the result of evolution depends in a distinctive nonlinear way on the strength of assortment: under moderately strong assortment, less genetic variation is maintained than under weak or strong assortment, and sometimes there is none at all. Evolutionary splitting occurs only if frequency dependence and assortment are both strong enough and costs are low. Even then, the evolutionary outcome depends on the genetics and the initial conditions. The roles of the number of loci, of linkage, and of asymmetric selection are also explored.     

Competitive speciation

A new mode of speciation, competitive speciation, is suggested. It assumes that fitness is depressed by the density of a phenotype's competitors, and that the adaptive landscape of phenotypes is complex. From this it follows that some intermediate forms may be fit if and only if some extreme forms are rare or absent. Subsequent to the evolution and population growth of both extreme forms, the intermediate may disappear and homogamy evolve among each of the extremes because of disruptive selection If so, sympatric speciation has occurred and niche space has been rendered into discrete segments.
The limitations of the forces leading to competitive speciation are explored. Competitive speciation is discussed in relation to stasipatric speciation and host race formation. It may be responsible for both. Finally the rates of geographical speciation and polyploidy are compared to those of competitive speciation. The latter should be almost as fast as polyploidy and may be at the root of adaptive radiation. Unlike either polyploidy or geographical speciation, competitive speciation accelerates when species diversity declines.     

Effects of genetic architecture on the evolution of assortative mating under frequency-dependent disruptive selection

We consider a model of sympatric speciation due to frequency-dependent competition, in which it was previously assumed that the evolving traits have a very simple genetic architecture. In the present study, we numerically analyze the consequences of relaxing this assumption. First, previous models assumed that assortative mating evolves in infinitesimal steps. Here, we show that the range of parameters for which speciation is possible increases when mutational steps are large. Second, it was assumed that the trait under frequency-dependent selection is determined by a single locus with two alleles and additive effects. As a consequence, the resultant intermediate phenotype is always heterozygous and can never breed true. To relax this assumption, here we add a second locus influencing the trait. We find three new possible evolutionary outcomes: evolution of three reproductively isolated species, a monomorphic equilibrium with only the intermediate phenotype, and a randomly mating population with a steep unimodal distribution of phenotypes. Both extensions of the original model thus increase the likelihood of competitive speciation.     

EVOLUTION OF DISPERSAL RATES IN METAPOPULATION MODELS: BRANCHING AND CYCLIC DYNAMICS IN PHENOTYPE SPACE

We study the evolution of dispersal rates in a two patch metapopulation model. The local dynamics in each patch are given by difference equations, which, together with the rate of dispersal between the patches, determine the ecological dynamics of the metapopulation. We assume that phenotypes are given by their dispersal rate. The evolutionary dynamics in phenotype space are determined by invasion exponents, which describe whether a mutant can invade a given resident population. If the resident metapopulation is at a stable equilibrium, then selection on dispersal rates is neutral if the population sizes in the two patches are the same, while selection drives dispersal rates to zero if the local abundances are different. With non-equilibrium metapopulation dynamics, non-zero dispersal rates can be maintained by selection. In this case, and if the patches are ecologically identical, dispersal rates always evolve to values which induce synchronized metapopulation dynamics. If the patches are ecologically different, evolutionary branching into two coexisting dispersal phenotypes can be observed. Such branching can happen repeatedly, leading to polymorphisms with more than two phenotypes. If there is a cost to dispersal, evolutionary cycling in phenotype space can occur due to the dependence of selection pressures on the ecological attractor of the resident population, or because phenotypic branching alternates with the extinction of one of the branches. Our results extend those of Holt and McPeek (1996), and suggest that phenotypic branching is an important evolutionary process. This process may be relevant for sympatric speciation.     

The conditions for speciation through intraspecific competition

Abstract It has been shown theoretically that sympatric speciation can occur if intraspecific competition is strong enough to induce disruptive selection. However, the plausibility of the involved processes is under debate, and many questions on the conditions for speciation remain unresolved. For instance, is strong disruptive selection sufficient for speciation? Which roles do genetic architecture and initial composition of the population play? How strong must assortative mating be before a population can split in two? These are some of the issues we address here. We investigate a diploid multilocus model of a quantitative trait that is under frequency‐dependent selection caused by a balance of intraspecific competition and frequency‐independent stabilizing selection. This trait also acts as mating character for assortment. It has been established previously that speciation can occur only if competition is strong enough to induce disruptive selection. We find that speciation becomes more difficult for very strong competition, because then extremely strong assortment is required. Thus, speciation is most likely for intermediate strengths of competition, where it requires strong, but not extremely strong, assortment. For this range of parameters, however, it is not obvious how assortment can evolve from low to high levels, because with moderately strong assortment less genetic variation is maintained than under weak or strong assortment sometimes none at all. In addition to the strength of frequency‐dependent competition and assortative mating, the roles of the number of loci, the distribution of allelic effects, the initial conditions, costs to being choosy, the strength of stabilizing selection, and the particular choice of the fitness function are explored. A multitude of possible evolutionary outcomes is observed, including loss of all genetic variation, splitting in two to five species, as well as very short and extremely long stable limit cycles. On the methodological side, we propose quantitative measures for deciding whether a given distribution reflects two (or more) reproductively isolated clusters.     

Adaptive sympatric speciation of polychromatic "roundfin" sailfin silverside fish in Lake Matano (Sulawesi)

The significance of sympatric speciation is one of the most controversial topics in evolutionary biology. Theory suggests that different factors can lead to speciation in full geographical contact, including selection and nonrandom mating. Strict criteria have been established for assessing sympatric speciation, which have been met in only a very few cases. Here, we investigate differentiation among sympatric morphospecies and color morphs of "roundfin" sailfin silversides (Telmatherinidae), small freshwater fish endemic to ancient Lake Matano in Central Sulawesi (Indonesia). Morphospecies are distinct according to body shape (geometric morphometrics), population structure (population-level amplified fragment length polymorphism [AFLP] markers), ecology, and mating behavior (habitat transects, stomach contents). Explorative genome scans based on AFLPs indicate that divergent selection affects only 1.3-4.2% of the analyzed loci, suggesting an early stage of speciation. Transect data demonstrate strong assortative mating and adaptive niche differentiation. However, we find no restrictions in gene flow among the conspicuous male color morphs. In summary, our data are consistent with a sympatric mode of divergence among three morphospecies under conditions effectively ruling out allopatric scenarios. Substantial, but incomplete, reproductive isolation suggests an early stage of speciation, most likely due to ecological selection pressure.     

SEXUAL IMPRINTING: WHAT STRATEGIES SHOULD WE EXPECT TO SEE IN NATURE?

Sexual imprinting occurs when juveniles learn mate preferences by observing the phenotypes of other members of their populations, and it is ubiquitous in nature. Imprinting strategies, that is which individuals and phenotypes are observed and how strong preferences become, vary among species. Imprinting can affect trait evolution and the probability of speciation, and different imprinting strategies are expected to have different effects. However, little is known about how and why different imprinting strategies evolve, or which strategies we should expect to see in nature. We used a mathematical model to study how the evolution of sexual imprinting depends on (1) imprinting costs and (2) the sex‐specific fitness effects of the phenotype on which individuals imprint. We found that even small fixed costs prevent the evolution of sexual imprinting, but small relative costs do not. When imprinting does evolve, we identified the conditions under which females should evolve to imprint on their fathers, their mothers, or on other members of their populations. Our results provide testable hypotheses for empirical work and help to explain the conditions under which sexual imprinting might evolve to promote speciation.     

ON THE EVOLUTIONARY CONSEQUENCES OF SEXUAL IMPRINTING

The idea that sexual imprinting may generate sexual selection and possibly lead to speciation has been much discussed in the ethological literature. Here the feasibility of three such hypotheses is investigated using mathematical models of sexual selection in which mating preferences are acquired through imprinting and hence dependent upon the parental phenotypes. The principal findings are the following. (1) Sexual imprinting reduces the likelihood of novel adaptive traits spreading through a population, except in some circumstances in which there is heterozygote advantage. (2) Asymmetrical mating preferences, acquired through imprinting, can generate sexual selection for traits that impair survival. (3) The conditions under which sexual imprinting will maintain a genetic polymorphism in a population are fairly restricted. (4) Sexual imprinting can act as a barrier to gene flow minimizing the impact of migration and preserving and accentuating genetic differences between populations. The findings suggest that sexual imprinting may be of considerable evolutionary significance.     

On the origin of species by means of assortative mating.

Assortative mating may split a population even in the absence of natural selection. Here, we study when this happens if mating depends on one or two quantitative traits. Not surprisingly, the modes of assortative mating that can cause sympatric speciation without selection are rather strict. However, some of them may occur in nature. Slow elimination of intermediate individuals caused by the gradual tightening of assortative mating, which evolves owing to relatively weak disruptive selection, provides the alternative scenario for sympatric speciation, in addition to fast elimination of intermediate individuals as a result of the direct action of strong disruptive selection under an invariant mode of assortative mating. Even when assortative mating alone cannot split an initially coherent population, it may be able to prevent the merging of species after their secondary contact.     

The reality and importance of founder speciation in evolution

A founder event occurs when a new population is established from a small number of individuals drawn from a large ancestral population. Mayr proposed that genetic drift in an isolated founder population could alter the selective forces in an epistatic system, an observation supported by recent studies. Carson argued that a period of relaxed selection could occur when a founder population is in an open ecological niche, allowing rapid population growth after the founder event. Selectable genetic variation can actually increase during this founder-flush phase due to recombination, enhanced survival of advantageous mutations, and the conversion of non-additive genetic variance into additive variance in an epistatic system, another empirically confirmed prediction. Templeton combined the theories of Mayr and Carson with population genetic models to predict the conditions under which founder events can contribute to speciation, and these predictions are strongly confirmed by the empirical literature. Much of the criticism of founder speciation is based upon equating founder speciation to an adaptive peak shift opposed by selection. However, Mayr, Carson and Templeton all modeled a positive interaction of selection and drift, and Templeton showed that founder speciation is incompatible with peak-shift conditions. Although rare, founder speciation can have a disproportionate importance in adaptive innovation and radiation, and examples are given to show that "rare" does not mean "unimportant" in evolution. Founder speciation also interacts with other speciation mechanisms such that a speciation event is not a one-dimensional process due to either selection alone or drift alone.