Adapting to an Uncertain World: Cognitive Capacity and Causal Reasoning with Ambiguous Observations

Ambiguous causal evidence in which the covariance of the cause and effect is partially known is pervasive in real life situations. Little is known about how people reason about causal associations with ambiguous information and the underlying cognitive mechanisms. This paper presents three experiments exploring the cognitive mechanisms of causal reasoning with ambiguous observations. Results revealed that the influence of ambiguous observations manifested by missing information on causal reasoning depended on the availability of cognitive resources, suggesting that processing ambiguous information may involve deliberative cognitive processes. Experiment 1 demonstrated that subjects did not ignore the ambiguous observations in causal reasoning. They also had a general tendency to treat the ambiguous observations as negative evidence against the causal association. Experiment 2 and Experiment 3 included a causal learning task requiring a high cognitive demand in which paired stimuli were presented to subjects sequentially. Both experiments revealed that processing ambiguous or missing observations can depend on the availability of cognitive resources. Experiment 2 suggested that the contribution of working memory capacity to the comprehensiveness of evidence retention was reduced when there were ambiguous or missing observations. Experiment 3 demonstrated that an increase in cognitive demand due to a change in the task format reduced subjects’ tendency to treat ambiguous-missing observations as negative cues.     

Eliminating autocorrelation reduces biological relevance of home range estimates

1. Destructive subsampling or restrictive sampling are often standard procedures to obtain independence of spatial observations in home range analyses. We examined whether home range estimators based upon kernel densities require serial independence of observations, by using a Monte Carlo simulation, antler flies and snapping turtles as models.
2. Home range size, time partitioning and total straight line distances travelled were tested to determine if subsampling improved kernel performance and estimation of home range parameters.
3. The accuracy and precision of home range estimates from the simulated data set improved at shorter time intervals despite the increase in autocorrelation among the observations.
4. Subsampling did not reduce autocorrelation among locational observations of snapping turtles or antler flies, and home range size, time partitioning and total distance travelled were better represented by autocorrelated observations.
5. We found that kernel densities do not require serial independence of observations when estimating home range, and we recommend that researchers maximize the number of observations using constant time intervals to increase the accuracy and precision of their estimates.     

Following the rules: why small groups of tamarins do not reconcile conflicts

Reconciliation is the post-conflict friendly reunion between opponents. A series of conditions and rules in order for reconciliation to take place has been recently proposed. One critical condition is that the relationship between opponents must be disrupted. We tested this condition using post-conflict and matched-control observations on 4 small groups of tamarins (Saguinus labiatus). Our previous lack of evidence for reconciliation was confirmed. No post-conflict relationship damage was therefore expected. We found evidence that relationships were disturbed following conflicts over food but, as in other primates, no evidence for reconciliation following such conflicts was found. For non-food-related conflicts there was no evidence that relationships were disturbed, as opponents were in close proximity to each other and resumed the exact same activity as frequently in the post-conflict observations as they did in the matched-control observations. We conclude that 'everyday' aggression may not disrupt the relationships among individuals from the same family group and therefore reconciliation is not needed.     

Citizen science can complement professional invasive plant surveys and improve estimates of suitable habitat

Aim

Citizen science is a cost-effective potential source of invasive species occurrence data. However, data quality issues due to unstructured sampling approaches may discourage the use of these observations by science and conservation professionals. This study explored the utility of low-structure iNaturalist citizen science data in invasive plant monitoring. We first examined the prevalence of invasive taxa in iNaturalist plant observations and sampling biases associated with these data. Using four invasive species as examples, we then compared iNaturalist and professional agency observations and used the two datasets to model suitable habitat for each species.

Location

Hawai'i, USA.

Methods

To estimate the prevalence of invasive plant data, we compared the number of species and observations recorded in iNaturalist to botanical checklists for Hawai'i. Sampling bias was quantified along gradients of site accessibility, protective status and vegetation disturbance using a bias index. Habitat suitability for four invasive species was modelled in Maxent, using observations from iNaturalist, professional agencies and stratified subsets of iNaturalist data.

Results

iNaturalist plant observations were biased towards invasive species, which were frequently recorded in areas with higher road/trail density and vegetation disturbance. Professional observations of four example invasive species tended to occur in less accessible, native-dominated sites. Habitat suitability models based on iNaturalist versus professional data showed moderate overlap and different distributions of suitable habitat across vegetation disturbance classes. Stratifying iNaturalist observations had little effect on how suitable habitat was distributed for the species modelled in this study.

Main Conclusions

Opportunistic iNaturalist observations have the potential to complement and expand professional invasive plant monitoring, which we found was often affected by inverse sampling biases. Invasive species represented a high proportion of iNaturalist plant observations, and were recorded in environments that were not captured by professional surveys. Combining the datasets thus led to more comprehensive estimates of suitable habitat.     

Parasitoid behaviour: predicting field from laboratory

Abstract.  1. Most of what is known about parasitoid behaviour comes from laboratory observations: field quantitative observations on searching parasitoids are extremely difficult to do and are rare. The basic components of Aphytis melinus 's response to California red scale ( Aonidiella aurantii ) were studied in the laboratory: encounter, rejection, drumming, probing, oviposition, and host-feeding. It was then asked whether these observations provided a reliable guide to behaviour in the field in a situation that was very different from the laboratory.
2. Field observations were carried out on bark on the trunk and interior branches of trees where live scale density is extremely high in patches, dead scale make up 90% of all scale, and could be expected to interfere with Aphytis search.
3. The laboratory observations predicted well the time taken in the field for each basic event (drumming or probing) and average times spent on a scale. Also well predicted were the distributions of times spent on drumming, probing, and total time on a scale. Rejection rates were much higher in the field. Thus, the laboratory studies predicted foraging behaviour in the field with variable success; potential explanations for observed mismatch between laboratory and field and its possible larger implications are discussed.     

Cryptic dietary components reduce dietary overlap among sympatric butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae)

This study used three different methods to ascertain dietary composition for 21 Chaetodontidae species co-occurring on a single fringing reef in Derawan Island, East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The combination of in situ feeding observations, examination of gut contents and stable-isotope analyses was expected to identify previously unresolved prey items that contribute to dietary separation. In situ feeding observations identified five species that feed predominantly on anthozoans ( Chaetodon baronessa , Chaetodon bennetti , Chaetodon lunulatus , Chaetodon punctatofasciatus and Chaetodon speculum ). Stable-isotope ratios for these species, as well as for Chaetodon ornatissimus (for which no feeding observations were completed), were very similar and consistent with diets comprising mostly anthozoans. Feeding observations, however, showed that they mostly fed on different coral species, while the identifiable portion of their gut contents showed clear separation based on cryptic dietary components. For example, C. baronessa and C. bennetti appeared to ingest annelid worms during the course of coral feeding, whereas gut contents of C. punctatofasciatus and C. speculum were dominated by crustaceans. In situ feeding observations further identified the following groups: coral–bottom feeders, bottom feeders, sponge feeders and pelagic feeders, feeding on a wide variety of prey items such as Annelida, Crustacea, Cnidaria, Mollusca and macroalgae. Overall, many chaetodontid species had similar reliance on major prey items ( e.g . anthozoans or polychaetes) but differed greatly in the minor prey items that they utilized. Partitioning of minor prey items may be important in reducing interspecific competition and facilitating coexistence of chaetodontids on coral reefs.     

Phylogeny of Gut-Associated Lymphoid Tissue

Gastrointestinal (GI) tracts from four anuran and four urodelespecies were examined macroscopically and histologically fromthe esophagus to the cloaca. Anatomic observations were facilitatedby treating the GI tracts with acetic acid, a procedure whichremoves gut epithelium and exposes underlying structures. Histologicanalysis involved routine as well as specific histochemicaltechniques. Detailed observations reveal that anuran amphibianspossess nodular, well-organized gut-associated lymphoid tissue(GALT) throughout their GI tracts. In striking contrast, nosuch patterns of lymphoid tissue have been noted in the Urodela. Similar techniques have revealed the location of lymphoid tissuesin the urogenital system (e.g., cloaca and bladder) of advancedanurans. These nodules appear to be lacking in the primitiveanuran Xenopus and in all the urodele species we examined. Preliminary observations have confirmed GALT and urogenital-associatedlymphoid tissues in the snapping turtle.     

“Anyone Know What Species This Is?” – Twitter Conversations as Embryonic Citizen Science Communities

Social media like blogs, micro-blogs or social networks are increasingly being investigated and employed to detect and predict trends for not only social and physical phenomena, but also to capture environmental information. Here we argue that opportunistic biodiversity observations published through Twitter represent one promising and until now unexplored example of such data mining. As we elaborate, it can contribute to real-time information to traditional ecological monitoring programmes including those sourced via citizen science activities. Using Twitter data collected for a generic assessment of social media data in ecological monitoring we investigated a sample of what we denote biodiversity observations with species determination requests (N = 191). These entail images posted as messages on the micro-blog service Twitter. As we show, these frequently trigger conversations leading to taxonomic determinations of those observations. All analysed Tweets were posted with species determination requests, which generated replies for 64% of Tweets, 86% of those contained at least one suggested determination, of which 76% were assessed as correct. All posted observations included or linked to images with the overall image quality categorised as satisfactory or better for 81% of the sample and leading to taxonomic determinations at the species level in 71% of provided determinations. We claim that the original message authors and conversation participants can be viewed as implicit or embryonic citizen science communities which have to offer valuable contributions both as an opportunistic data source in ecological monitoring as well as potential active contributors to citizen science programmes.     

North American vegetation patterns observed with the NOAA-7 advanced very high resolution radiometer

Spectral vegetation index measurements derived from remotely sensed observations show great promise as a means to improve knowledge of land vegetation patterns. The daily, global observations acquired by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, a sensor on the current series of U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorological satellites, may be particularly well suited for global studies of vegetation. Preliminary results from analysis of North American observations, extending from April to November 1982, show that the vegetation index patterns observed correspond to the known seasonality of North American natural and cultivated vegetation. Integration of the observations over the growing season produced measurements that are related to net primary productivity patterns of the major North American natural vegetation formations. Regions of intense cultivation were observed as anomalous areas in the integrated growing season measurements. These anomalies can be explained by contrasts between cultivation practices and natural vegetation phenology. Major new information on seasonality, annual extent and interannual variability of vegetation photosynthetic activity at continental and global scales can be derived from these satellite observations.This research is in part supported through NASA Cooperative Agreement NCC 5–26 from the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center.     

Disintegration of a large concentration of loliginid squid as a response to predation

During hydroacoustic observations in November 2002, a large concentration of chokka squid (Loligo reynaudi) was monitored for three days during fairly constant wind speed and direction, that marginally improved during the period of observations. During this period, the concentration (estimated biomass 48 t) disintegrated into small, separate aggregations. Most often, such dispersal is weather-related, but obviously not in this case. Instead, a bottom trawl made adjacent to the concentration, as well as underwater camera observations revealed an unusually large number of predators, mostly bronze whaler sharks (Carcharhinus brachyurus). Most whaler sharks caught in the trawl had chokka in their stomachs. Therefore, one explanation for the break-up of this squid concentration was the unusual predator activity. Video observations revealed, that these attacks occurred on the bottom where squid spawn; while none were observed in the water column where squid pair, mate and swim in a circular motion preparing for descent to the egg bed. The disintegration of the whole concentration suggested that disrupted spawning affects the upper part of the typical mushroom-shaped structure as well, and squid subsequently disperse and/or move away as a result of predation by whaler sharks.     

Transmammary infection of paratenic and definitive hosts with Alaria marcianae (trematoda) mesocercariae

Transmammary infection with Alaria marcianae mesocercariae was demonstrated using mice as model, paratenic hosts. Prenatal transmission was ruled out because neonates removed immediately postpartum from infected dams were never infected. Mesocercarial distribution in virgin females and in females examined immediately postpartum showed no marked preference for the mammary glands. In contrast, infection of neonates that were allowed to suckle on infected dams was absolute, and the number of mesocercariae in the mammary glands of postparturient dams that suckled their young was increased significantly. These experimental observations were coupled with other observations on paratenic hosts to outline the pathways open to mesocercariae in gravid hosts. The term amphiparatenic host is coined for those host species that are paratenic hosts as adults, but as juveniles can serve as definitive hosts.     

Analysis and description of the evolution of alginate immobilised cells systems

Different immobilised cells models, including very simple ones, can be useful in the fitting of experimental results. However, goodness or the ability to extrapolate results needs to be in accordance with basic observations and these will also suggest models to be proposed. In this paper, observations of calcium alginate/bacteria systems are used to show the ability of basic models to fit classic observations, as well as how new observations, in this case from electronic microscopy, oblige us to think about more complex mechanisms and mathematical treatments. Nevertheless it is not only important to discuss the model type, but also the type of kinetics assumed in the interior of the beads, as well as the internal structure, the boundary conditions related to bead shredding and cell escape and finally, geometrical effects.     

Some sampling considerations in the quantitation of monkey behavior under field and captive conditions

Observations of monkey behavior were made on free-ranging and corral-enclosedMacaca mulatta. Two sampling techniques were used: focal animal and group observations. Group observations measured frequencies of social behavior whereas focal observations used time samples which estimated durations of social and nonsocial activities as well as frequencies of social behavior. Analysis of concordance within and between sampling techniques revealed that short duration focal time samples provide a reliable estimate of total frequencies of social behaviors derived using group observations and furthermore, allows the recording of important nonsocial activities not easily recorded in terms of frequencies. Focal time sampling is advantageous for certain types of studies where the equal distribution of observation time between individuals is important, particularly in the field where visibility is often limited and individuals can only be observed continuously for short periods of time. This work was supported by grants from the H. F. Guggenheim Foundation, Dr.H. C. Robinson, Jr., and USPHS grants MH 24607 and MH 25642.     

Note on a binomial test against sectoral preference of circular observations

A binomial test is proposed to test the nullhypothesis of uniform distribution of circular observations against the alternative of sectoral preference where the sector in which the observations are expected to cluster must be chosen prior to sampling. This binomial test against sectoral preference is illustrated by an example from psychopharmacology. The method is modified for comparing the sectoral proportions of two independent as well as two paired samples of circular observations.     

A note on the effect of observations with missing data on genetic correlation estimates

Summary Various studies have estimated covariance components as half the difference between the variance component of the sum of the variable values, for each observation, and the sum of the corresponding variable variance components. Although the variance components for the separate variables can be computed using all available data, the variance components of the sum can be computed only from those observations with records for both variables. Previous studies have suggested eliminating observations with missing data, because of possible selection bias. The effect of missing data on estimates of covariance components and genetic correlations was tested on sample beef cattle data and simulated data by randomly deleting differing proportions of records of one variable for each pair of variables analyzed. Estimates of genetic correlations computed with observations with missing data eliminated, were more accurate than estimates computed using all available data. Furthermore, when observations with missing data were included, estimates of genetic correlation far outside the parameter space were common. Therefore, this method should be used only if observations with missing data have been eliminated.     

Temporal pooling of point transect data increases precision in density estimates of southern chamois

Estimating animal abundances in small areas is a difficult task and because a limited number of observations often results in low-precision estimates whose inaccuracies may even be exacerbated if surveys are focussed on clustered populations and/or are only carried out once a year. In an attempt to overcome this problem, we used point transects to monthly survey two small areas of a game reserve to assess the density of Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra p. pyrenaica). The coefficient of variation associated with the density estimates after pooling observations by season was still high but decreased to reasonable values (<20%) when observations were over 29 chamois groups (clusters). Our results suggest that Distance Sampling may be a useful way of estimating the population density of mountain ungulates such as Pyrenean chamois in small rugged areas where only a small or moderate number of observations are to be expected.     

PROLIFERATIVE BEHAVIOR OF DIFFERENTIATING CELLS IN THE DEVELOPING RAT PAROTID GLAND

Parotid glands of litters of rats at age intervals from 20 days in utero to 100 days were assayed for DNA content and examined by light- and electron-microscopy. The age differences in total DNA and DNA concentration indicated that there was a rapid rate of proliferation of parenchymal cells until 25 postnatal days, after which the rate declined rapidly, and that there was a rapid increase in cell size between 18 and 25 days. These findings were substantiated by histologic observations, such as the presence of numerous mitotic figures until 25 days of age, and the rapid maturation of the acinar cells between 18 and 25 days. These data suggest that the acinar cells of the rat parotid gland comprise an expanding cell population. Light- and electron-microscopic observations consistently indicated that cells with mitotic figures were about as well differentiated as other parenchymal cells at all stages of gland development, including mature acinar cells observed at ages 23 and 25 days. These observations support the view that the division of cells in advanced stages of differentiation may be important in the growth of certain organs and tissues.     

利用生命表评价白蛾周氏啮小蜂对美国白蛾的控制作用

为了研究白蛾周氏啮小蜂对侵入性害虫-美国白蛾的控制作用,在山东省烟台市美国白蛾发生区,选择美国白蛾发生程度中等的两块样地,一块样地作为释放白蛾周氏啮小蜂防治美国白蛾的防治区,另一块样地作为对照区。应用生命表技术,连续2年共4代对美国白蛾种群数量进行定点观察。防治区每代美国白蛾在化蛹初期和化蛹盛期各放蜂1次,即每代美国白蛾共放蜂2次。将2年的第1代和第2代观测数据分别综合平均,制成4个生命表。结果表明,在放蜂防治区,第1代和第2代美国白蛾的种群趋势指数（I）分别为0.29和0.14,说明下代美国白蛾种群数量将急剧下降;放蜂区的I值显著小于对照区的8.74和4.48。生命表研究结果清楚地表明,通过人工释放白蛾周氏啮小蜂能够达到良好的控制美国白蛾的效果。     

THE SEA-BIRDS OF GOUGH ISLAND

Between November 1955 and May 1956 continuous observations were made on the sea-birds of Gough Island. These have been augmented by further occasional observations during seven subsequent years, and are compared with all previous published records for the island.
A check-list of 30 species of sea-birds has been compiled and substantiated, as far as possible, by a series of skins of 20 species.
Nearly 900 sea-birds cf 20 species were caught and measured, considerably more than at any previous time there; in the case of eight species, these are analysed in detail and some are compared with those from other populations.
The relative status of each species was estimated, together with total breeding populations where possible. In same cases the distribution of nests was mapped.
A detailed sound and photographic record, of 14 and 16 species respectively, was made.
Numbers of Wandering Albatrosses Diomedea exulans dabbenena and skuas Catharacta skua hamiltoni were ringed and colour-marked respectively to enable a more detailed study to be made of them.
General observations were made on the nesting seasons, breeding behaviour and moult of various species which are treated systematically.     

Needs and benefits of empirical power transformations for production and quality traits in forest tree breeding

Non-normality in the distribution of individual observations of production and quality traits in forest tree breeding may cause inaccurate selection and overestimation of predicted selection gain. The distribution of individual observations of traits such as height, diameter, branch diameter, branch angle and number of branches per whorl is not always normal. We investigated how the observations were distributed and to what degree it is possible to improve normality, homogeneity of error variance and additivity by using empirical power transformations. Computer simulations showed that a seriously skewed distribution impairs selection efficiency and exaggerates selection gain expectations. If the distribution is heavily skewed, transformation might be worthwhile. It does not seem possible to offer any general advice about which varities should be transformed, but in most cases there seems to be no need of any transformation.