Retrospective analysis of census data on general practitioners who qualified in South Asia: who will replace them as they retire?

ObjectivesTo determine the number and geographical distribution of general practitioners in the NHS who qualified medically in South Asia and to project their numbers as they retire.DesignRetrospective analysis of yearly data and projection of future trends.SettingEngland and Wales.SubjectsGeneral practitioners who qualified medically in the countries of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka and who were practising in the NHS on 1 October 1992.Results4192 of 25 333 (16.5%) of all unrestricted general practitioners practising full time on 1 October 1992 qualified in South Asian medical schools. The proportion varied by health authority from 0.007% to 56.5%. Roughly two thirds who were practising in 1992 will have retired by 2007; in some health authorities this will represent a loss of one in four general practitioners. The practices that these doctors will leave seem to be in relatively deprived areas as measured by deprivation payments and a health authority measure of population need.ConclusionMany general practitioners who qualified in South Asian medical schools will retire within the next decade. The impact will vary greatly by health authority. Those health authorities with the greatest number of such doctors are in some of the most deprived areas in the United Kingdom and have experienced the most difficulty in filling vacancies. Various responses will be required by workforce planners to mitigate the impact of these retirements.

Key messages

• Currently, one in six general practitioners practising full time in the NHS qualified medically in a South Asian medical school; two thirds are likely to retire by 2007
• It is unlikely that doctors who qualify in South Asia will be a source of general practice recruitment in the future
• The posts from which South Asian qualifiers are retiring may be more difficult to fill because they are often in practices in areas of higher need
• There is extreme variation in the proportion of total general practitioners who are South Asian qualifiers; flexibility for policy responses should be maintained

     

Workload of general practitioners before and after the new contract.

OBJECTIVE--To assess changes in general practitioners'' workload associated with the new contract introduced in April 1990. DESIGN--Weekly workload diary completed during four weeks in February-March 1990 and during the same period in 1991. SETTING--Sheffield, United Kingdom. SUBJECTS--All 300 general practitioners on Sheffield Family Health Services Authority list as principals in 1990 and 1991. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mean number of hours worked per week, number of patients seen each week, and mean time spent per patient. RESULTS--181 (60%) general practitioners responded in 1990 and 163 (54%) in 1991. Of these, 18 (10%) were not working in 1990 and 14 (7%) in 1991. General medical service work increased during a "normal working week" from a mean of 38.6 hours a week in 1990 to 40.6 hours in 1991, and non-general medical service work decreased from 5.4 hours a week to 4.5 hours. Hours spent on call were similar before and after the contract. For the 99 general practitioners who responded in both years, time spent on general medical service duties increased significantly (40.5 h in 1990 v 42.5 h [corrected] in 1991; p = 0.033), mainly due to more time being spent in clinics. Significantly more patients were being seen in clinics (9 v 14; p = 0.001); the average time spent per patient remained at about 8 1/2 minutes during surgeries and 16 minutes for a home visit, and rose from 13 to 14 minutes for patients seen in clinics. The time spent on practice administration fell but not significantly. CONCLUSION--Since the new contract there has been a significant increase in general medical services work, mainly due to more patients being seen in clinics, with no reduction in the time spent per patient.     

Effect of NHS reforms on general practitioners' referral patterns.

OBJECTIVE--To compare outpatient referral patterns in fundholding and non-fundholding practices before and after the implementation of the NHS reforms in April 1991. DESIGN--Prospective collection of data on general practitioners'' referrals to specialist outpatient clinics between June 1990 and March 1992 and detailed comparison of two time periods: October 1990 to March 1991 (phase 1) and October 1991 to March 1992 (phase 2). SETTING--10 fundholding practices and six non-fundholding practices in the Oxford region. SUBJECTS--Patients referred to consultant outpatient clinics. RESULTS--After implementation of the NHS reforms there was no change in the proportion of referrals from the two groups of practices which crossed district boundaries. Both groups of practices increased their referral rates in phase 2 of the study, the fundholders from 107.3 per 1000 patients per annum (95% confidence interval 106 to 109) to 111.4 (110 to 113) and the non-fundholders from 95.0 (93 to 97) to 112.0 (110 to 114). In phase 2 there was no difference in overall standardised referral rates between fundholders and non-fundholders. Just over 20% of referrals went to private clinics in phase 1. By phase 2 this proportion had reduced by 2.2% (1.0% to 3.4%) among the fundholders and by 2.7% (1.2% to 4.2%) among the non-fundholders. CONCLUSIONS--Referral patterns among fundholders and non-fundholders were strikingly similar after the implementation of the NHS reforms. There was no evidence that fundholding was encouraging a shift from specialist to general practice care or that budgetary pressures were affecting general practitioners'' referral behaviour.     

Roles,risks, and responsibilities in maternity care: trainees' beliefs and the effects of practice obstetric training.

OBJECTIVES--To document the content of practice obstetric vocational training, the beliefs of general practitioner trainees about the roles of midwives and general practitioners in maternity care, and the risks of providing such care; and to ascertain if undergoing such training affects their beliefs. DESIGN--Confidential postal questionnaire survey. SUBJECTS--Random one in four sample of all general practitioner trainees in the United Kingdom on vocational training schemes or in training practices in autumn 1990. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Beliefs scored on seven point Likert scales and characteristics of trainer and training practice. RESULTS--Of 1019 trainees sent questionnaires, 765 (75.1% response rate) replied; 638 (83.3%) had done some part of their practice year. Of their trainers, 224 (35.1%) provided full obstetric care. 749 (99%) and 364 (48%) trainees believed that midwives and general practitioners respectively have an important role in normal labour; 681 (91.7%) trainees believed that general practice intrapartum care is a high risk "specialty." Those trainees whose trainers provide full obstetric care were significantly more likely to believe that both midwives and general practitioners have an important role in abnormal labour and to see the provision of intrapartum care as an incentive to join a practice. CONCLUSION--In this series most general practitioner trainees believed that both midwives and general practitioners have important roles in maternity care. Exposure of trainees to the provision of full obstetric care while in their training practice resulted in a more positive attitude towards the provision of such care by general practitioners.     

General practitioner's perceptions of the route to evidence based medicine: a questionnaire survey.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the attitude of general practitioners towards evidence based medicine and their related educational needs. DESIGN: A questionnaire study of general practitioners. SETTING: General practice in the former Wessex region, England. SUBJECTS: Randomly selected sample of 25% of all general practitioners (452), of whom 302 replied. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Respondents'' attitude towards evidence based medicine, ability to access and interpret evidence, perceived barriers to practising evidence based medicine, and best method of moving from opinion based to evidence based medicine. RESULTS: Respondents mainly welcomed evidence based medicine and agreed that its practice improves patient care. They had a low level of awareness of extracting journals, review publications, and databases (only 40% knew of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews), and, even if aware, many did not use them. In their surgeries 20% had access to bibliographic databases and 17% to the world wide web. Most had some understanding of the technical terms used. The major perceived barrier to practising evidence based medicine was lack of personal time. Respondents thought the most appropriate way to move towards evidence based general practice was by using evidence based guidelines or proposals developed by colleagues. CONCLUSION: Promoting and improving access to summaries of evidence, rather than teaching all general practitioners literature searching and critical appraisal, would be the more appropriate method of encouraging evidence based general practice. General practitioners who are skilled in accessing and interpreting evidence should be encouraged to develop local evidence based guidelines and advice.     

General practitioners' perceptions of the tolerability of antidepressant drugs: a comparison of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and tricyclic antidepressants.

OBJECTIVE: To examine inceptions and discontinuations of antidepressants in general practice. DESIGN: An observational study analysing data from an ongoing cross sectional postal survey. Every three months a representative sample of 250 doctors recorded prescribing activity for four weeks. This provided 4000 general practitioner weeks of recording per year. SETTING: A representative panel of general practitioners in England, Wales, and Scotland. SUBJECTS: Patients who began a new course of an antidepressant or had their treatment stopped or changed by the general practitioner between 1 July 1990 and 30 June 1995. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of patients prescribed a new course of antidepressant; numbers discontinuing treatment; the ratio of antidepressant discontinuations to antidepressant inceptions; reasons for discontinuation; proportion of switches to another antidepressant. RESULTS: There were 13,619 inceptions and 3934 discontinuations of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and tricyclic antidepressants during the study. The number of newly prescribed courses of antidepressants increased by 116%, mostly due to an increase in prescribing of serotonin reuptake inhibitors. The ratio of total discontinuations to inceptions was significantly lower for serotonin reuptake inhibitors (22%) than for tricyclic antidepressants (33%). Differences persisted when controlled for age and sex of patients and severity of depression. However, there was more switching away from selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors when they failed (72%) than from tricyclic antidepressants (58%). CONCLUSIONS: Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors are less likely than tricyclic antidepressants to be discontinued. A prospective study is needed in general practice to assess the implications of differences in discontinuation rates and switches on clinical and economic outcomes.     

Laboratory and radiological investigations in general practice. I-Type requested and rate of use.

The use that 30 general practitioners in four group practices made of open access laboratory and radiological facilities was studied for one year. We were particularly interested in whether general practitioners hoped to exclude rather than confirm abnormality when requesting investigations. All but two of the general practitioners studied used investigations to exclude abnormality to a greater extent than to confirm it. The rate at which the practices investigated patients and the number of investigations requested were appreciably different and were different for individual general practitioners, part time general practitioners requesting more investigations than trainees and full time general practitioners. Haematological investigations accounted for over 30% of requests for investigations in all but one practice, biochemical investigations being requested as often as bacteriological investigations in two of the four practices. The ratio of expected to unexpected results varied among general practitioners; no general practitioner had more unexpected results and the range of ratios was similar for full time and part time general practitioners and for trainees. The proportion of patients with abnormalities uncovered by each practice increased disproportionately as the use of investigations increased, supporting a higher rather than lower rate of investigation among general practitioners. Compared with the results of other studies the use of the radiological facilities available was low. X ray examinations of the skeleton were requested more than chest and contrast media examinations by three of the four practices. Most x ray examinations were used to exclude rather than confirm abnormality by all the practices, with over 85% of results confirming the general practitioner''s initial diagnosis.     

Local confidential inquiry into avoidable factors in deaths from stroke and hypertensive disease.

OBJECTIVE--To audit avoidable deaths from stroke and hypertensive disease. DESIGN--Details of care before death were obtained from general practitioners and other doctors, anonymised, and assessed by two experts against agreed minimum standards of good practice for detecting and managing hypertension. SETTING--Health authority with population of 250,000. SUBJECTS--All patients under 75 years who died of stroke, hypertensive disease, or hypertension related causes during November 1990 to October 1991. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Presence of important avoidable factors and departures from minimum standards of good practice. RESULTS--Adequate information was obtained for 88% (123/139) of eligible cases. Agreement between the assessors was mostly satisfactory. 29% (36/123, 95% confidence interval 21% to 37%) of all cases and 44% (36/81, 34% to 55%) of those with definite hypertension had avoidable factors that may have contributed to death. These were most commonly failures of follow up and continuing smoking. Assessment against standards of minimum good practice showed that care was inadequate but not necessarily deemed to have contributed to death, in a large proportion of patients with definite hypertension. Common shortcomings were inadequate follow up, clinical investigation, and recording of smoking and other relevant risk behaviours. CONCLUSIONS--This method of audit can identify shortcomings in care of patients dying of hypertension related disease.     

GPs in principle but not in practice: a study of vocationally trained doctors not currently working as principals.

OBJECTIVES--To identify doctors who are vocationally trained but not currently practising as principals in general practice; their reasons for not practising as principals; and whether the prospect of a re-entry course would appear to this group. DESIGN--Postal questionnaire survey based on semistructured interviews. SUBJECTS--Doctors who had been vocationally trained but were not currently practising as principals: 351 possible subjects identified by a process of "networking." SETTING--Trent Regional Health Authority. RESULTS--166 of the doctors who replied fitted the criteria (100 women; 66 men). The out of hours commitment was ranked as the most important factor for not practising as a principal--95 women and 50 men rated it important--followed by difficulty in combining work with family commitments--84 women, 31 men. 82 respondents (49%) said they would be interested in a re-entry course if one were available. CONCLUSIONS--There is a pool of vocationally trained doctors in Trent region who are not practising as principals in general practice. More flexible working patterns and the availability of a re-entry course could make the post of principal in general practice a more attractive proposition to these doctors.     

Recent trends in pediatric Haemophilus influenzae type B infections in Canada. Immunization Monitoring Program,Active (IMPACT) of the Canadian Paediatric Society and the Laboratory Centre for Disease Control.

OBJECTIVE: To describe changes in the number of cases of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) infections among Canadian children before and after the introductory phases of Hib vaccination. DESIGN: Multicentre case series. SETTING: All 10 pediatric tertiary care centres across Canada participating in the Immunization Monitoring Program, Active (IMPACT) of the Canadian Paediatric Society and the Laboratory Centre for Disease control. PATIENTS: Children with a Hib infection admitted to any of the participating hospitals from 1985 to 1994. Annual case totals from 1985 to 1990 were determined from records of hospital laboratories or coded discharge diagnoses, or both. From 1991 to 1994 intensive case surveillance was conducted on the wards in addition to thorough record searches as above. OUTCOME MEASURES: Estimated annual case totals for 1985-90. For 1991-94 intensive surveillance for quarterly case totals, yearly age distribution of cases, and proportion of recent cases that represent vaccination failures or missed opportunities to prevent infection. RESULTS: The total number of Hib cases from 1985 to 1990 was 2095; from 1991 to 1994, there were 326 laboratory-confirmed cases and 15 probably cases supported by Hib antigen detection. The annual number of cases declined from an estimated 485 in 1985 to 24 in 1994, a decrease of 95.1%. The steepest interannual decrease (63.7%) occurred between 1992 and 1993, following the introduction of infant-based vaccination programs across Canada. The number of Hib cases involving children most at risk (those 6 to 18 months old) decreased from 78 in 1991 to 4 in 1994. Of the 24 cases in 1994, 6 were categorized as preventable, 1 was fatal, and 8 were vaccine failures (2 of which involved currently used vaccines). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of Hib infections reported by the IMPACT centres has declined greatly since the introduction of vaccination programs. However, deaths and complications continue to occur, attesting to the need to vaccinate all eligible infants and children against this virulent pathogen.     

Job stress,satisfaction, and mental health among general practitioners before and after introduction of new contract.

OBJECTIVE--To compare measures of job stress, job satisfaction, and mental health among general practitioners before and after the introduction of the new contract in April 1990. DESIGN--Cross sectional postal questionnaire survey in July 1990. Comparison of results with those obtained in previous survey in November 1987. SETTING--General practice in United Kingdom. SUBJECTS--1500 general practitioners randomly selected from general medical services lists, 917 of whom (61%) returned questionnaires usable for statistical analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Aspects of job causing stress, job satisfaction (Warr, Cook, and Wall scale), and mental health (Crown-Crisp experiential index). RESULTS--Compared with 1987, in 1990 doctors experienced more stress from night calls (mean score 3.83 in 1990 v 3.45 in 1987), emergencies during surgery hours (3.72 v 3.48), and interruption of family life by telephone (3.58 v 2.73; p less than 0.001 for all three variables). Scores for somatic anxiety and depression were higher in both men and women in 1990 (men: somatic anxiety 3.12 v 2.36; depression 3.80 v 2.94; women: somatic anxiety 3.56 v 2.65; depression 4.02 v 3.37; p less than 0.001). Job satisfaction had also decreased in 1990 (5.23 v 4.26; p less than 0.001). CONCLUSIONS--Doctors experienced more stress, less job satisfaction, and poorer mental health in 1990 than in 1987. These changes may have resulted from the introduction of the new contract.     

Alberta's Rural Physician Action Plan: an integrated approach to education,recruitment and retention

This paper describes the development and characteristics of a comprehensive, integrated and sustained program for the education, recruitment and retention of physicians for rural practice in Alberta--the Rural Physician Action Plan. The participation of key stakeholders (including government, the provincial medical association, the licensing authority, faculties of medicine, practising rural physicians and regional health authorities) and a sustained program budget have been key organizational issues for success. Critical to the effectiveness of this program has been the focus on professional and lifestyle issues targeting 3 distinct groups: physicians in training, physicians in practice, and rural communities and health authorities. Substantial program funding since 1991-92 of up to $3 million per year has increased rural-based activities significantly. For example, 87% of medical students and 91% of residents in family medicine in Alberta now experience 4 weeks or more of rural practice. The authors believe that the historic issues and recent trends militating against recruitment and retention of rural physicians will continue unchecked without comprehensive and sustained approaches such as Alberta''s Rural Physician Action Plan.     

广西涠洲岛鸟类自然保护区的鸟类资源

先后于1989年10月和12月、1990年3～4月和7～8月、1991年4～5月、1994年4～5月、2003年1月和2008年5月对广西北部湾涠洲岛的鸟类资源进行了调查,在该保护区内共记录到鸟类186种,隶属16目52科.其中,旅鸟117种,冬候鸟48种,留鸟14种,夏候鸟7种.13种鸟类被IUCN列为受威胁物种,包括黑脸琵鹭(Platalea minor).国家重点保护鸟类29种.中日候鸟保护鸟类93种,中澳候鸟保护鸟类30种.涠洲岛鸟类自然保护区是沿太平洋西海岸迁飞候鸟的重要中途停歇地,具有非常重要的保护价值.     

Distribution of viruses in the Chesapeake Bay.

High virus counts were found in water samples collected from the Chesapeake Bay. Viruses were enumerated by ultracentrifugation of water samples onto grids which were visualized by transmission electron microscopy. Virus counts in September 1990, April 1991, June 1991, August 1991, and October 1991 ranged between 2.6 x 10(6) and 1.4 x 10(8) viruses ml-1 with a mean of 2.5 x 10(7) viruses ml-1. Virus counts were usually at least three times higher than direct bacterial counts in corresponding samples. Virus counts in August and October were significantly higher than at the other sampling times, whereas bacterial counts were significantly lower at that time, yielding mean virus-to-bacterium ratios of 12.6 and 25.6, respectively. From analysis of morphology of the virus particles, it is concluded that a large proportion of the viruses are bacteriophages. The high virus counts obtained in this study suggest that viruses may be an important factor affecting bacterial populations in the Chesapeake Bay, with implications for gene transfer in natural aquatic bacterial populations and release of genetically engineered microorganisms to estuarine and coastal environments.     

Distribution of viruses in the Chesapeake Bay.

High virus counts were found in water samples collected from the Chesapeake Bay. Viruses were enumerated by ultracentrifugation of water samples onto grids which were visualized by transmission electron microscopy. Virus counts in September 1990, April 1991, June 1991, August 1991, and October 1991 ranged between 2.6 x 10(6) and 1.4 x 10(8) viruses ml-1 with a mean of 2.5 x 10(7) viruses ml-1. Virus counts were usually at least three times higher than direct bacterial counts in corresponding samples. Virus counts in August and October were significantly higher than at the other sampling times, whereas bacterial counts were significantly lower at that time, yielding mean virus-to-bacterium ratios of 12.6 and 25.6, respectively. From analysis of morphology of the virus particles, it is concluded that a large proportion of the viruses are bacteriophages. The high virus counts obtained in this study suggest that viruses may be an important factor affecting bacterial populations in the Chesapeake Bay, with implications for gene transfer in natural aquatic bacterial populations and release of genetically engineered microorganisms to estuarine and coastal environments.     

Longitudinal zonation and life cycles of macrozoobenthos in the Mauerbach near Vienna,Austria

A total of 12277 benthic invertebrates were caught from November 1990 to October 1991 at the Mauerbach, a first to fourth order forest brook near Vienna, Austria, using a Surber sampler and a hand net. Five taxa comprised 96.6% of the catch: Diptera larvae (45.6%), Amphipoda (37.6%) and larvae of Ephemeroptera (6.4%), Plecoptera (5.3%) and Trichoptera (1.7%). Mean values of macrozoobenthos density ranged from 39514 specimens m⁻² at upstream sampling site 5 in December to only 286 specimens m⁻² at sampling site 3 in May, shortly after a severe flood. Based on benthic invertebrate population structure, sites 5 and 6 (situated near the source) were clearly separated from the downstream sites 1 to 4. At upstream sites, shredders comprised up to 71.7% of the total, whereas at downstream sites collectors were most abundant. In addition, the proportion of eucrenal species decreased from 12% at site 6 near the source to only 2% at site 1 near the mouth. Among the insect species studied in detail, most were univoltine except Ephemera danica (Ephemeroptera) and Sericostoma personatum (Trichoptera), which had a two-year life cycle.     

ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBERS OF HUMPBACK WHALES OBSERVED MIGRATING PAST CAPE VIDAL, SOUTH AFRICA, 1988–1991

A recovery-monitoring program of the African east coast humpback whale population was carried out through shore-based visual surveys from Cape Vidal, northern Natal. Surveys of the northward migration were undertaken each winter from 1988 to 1991, and a survey of the southward migration was undertaken in 1990. Independent observer surveys were undertaken during June 1990 and during the entire 1991 survey. Hourly densities of groups sighted each day were adjusted for groups missed by observers with distance from the shore and under different sighting conditions. Densities were multiplied by 24 h and the mean group size of the survey year to give resulting daily densities of individuals, which were summed to provide totals of whales sighted during each year's survey. The best estimate of population size was 1,711 (made during the northward migration of 1990), although this is likely to be biased downwards by a proportion of the population passing outside of observers'view. Bootstrapping of the 1991 daily data resulted in CVs between 11.4% and 12.2%. The numbers sighted show the population to have undergone considerable recovery since protection in October 1963.     

Is histological examination of tissue removed by general practitioners always necessary? Before and after comparison of detection rates of serious skin lesions.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether histological examination of all tissue removed by general practitioners in minor surgery increases the rate of detection of clinically important skin lesions, and to assess the impact of such a policy on pathologists'' workload. DESIGN: Before and after comparison. SETTING: Stratified random sample of 257 general practitioner partnerships from the catchment areas of 19 English pathology laboratories. SUBJECTS: Tissue removed in minor surgery by general practitioners during the control period (September 1992 to February 1993) and intervention period (September 1993 to February 1994). INTERVENTION: General practitioners referred to their local pathology laboratory all solid tissue removed in all minor surgery, irrespective of their previous policy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of specimens referred for histology by general practitioners during intervention and control periods; numbers of primary malignant melanomas, non-melanoma malignancies, premalignant lesions, and benign lesions. RESULTS: 257/330 partnerships participated (response rate 78%). During the intervention period 5723 specimens were sent, compared with 4430 during the control period. The referral rate increased by an estimated 1.34 specimens per 1000 patient years (95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.76, P < 0.0001). General practitioners sent 204 specimens that were malignant (including 16 malignant melanomas) in the control period and 188 that were malignant (including 15 malignant melanomas) during the intervention period (change in total number of malignancies, -1.0 per 100,000 patient years (-5.9 to 3.8, non-significant). CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was associated with a substantial increase in laboratory workload, all of which was accounted for by increases in non-serious lesions. This observation should be taken into account when considering the merits of a policy requiring histological examination in every case.     

Experimental induction of luteal cyclicity in roe deer (Capreolus capreolus).

Concentrations of progesterone and luteinizing hormone in plasma were analysed for two consecutive years in samples from nonpregnant female roe deer. Three animals were treated with monthly prostaglandin injections (325 micrograms cloprostenol) from October 1989 to April 1990 and from October 1990 to March 1991, and three were kept as controls. In control animals, a small increase in progesterone concentrations in July 1990 occurred at the same time as the commencement of the rut in other husbanded roe deer. In prostaglandin-treated animals, progesterone concentration was high at the time of the rut and remained so until late February 1990. After the next rut (August 1990), progesterone concentration remained high until March 1991. Between October and February-March, injections of prostaglandins induced dramatic, but temporary (lasting 72 h), decreases in plasma progesterone concentrations, indicating luteal regression and subsequent ovulation. We infer that roe deer can ovulate repeatedly and should therefore not be regarded as an obligate monoestrous species.