自然保护区设计的主要原理和方法

本文回顾了自然保护区设计的主要原理和方法。建立自然保护区的目的是防止物种绝灭和生物多样性消失。岛屿生物地理学的“平衡理论”的设计原则未涉及到物种绝灭的中心问题———种群生存力,所以该理论对保护实践贡献较小。种群生存力分析和最小可存活种群的理论及模型用于物种绝灭问题的研究,同时关键种的生存力用于确定生态系统的生存力,因而该理论和模型成为自然保护区设计的理论基础。保护评估方法已应用于自然保护区的选择和检验中。走廊辩论取代了ＳＬＯＳＳ辩论,成为自然保护区设计争论的热点     

种群统计随机性和环境随机性对种群绝灭的影响

影响种群绝灭的随机干扰可分为种群统计随机性、环境随机性和随机灾害三大类。在相对稳定的环境条件下和相对较短的时间内,以前两类随机干扰对种群绝灭的影响为生态学家关注的焦点。但是,由于自然种群动态及其影响因子的复杂特征,进一步深入研究随机干扰对种群绝灭的作用在理论上和实践上都必须发展新的技术手段。本文回顾了种群统计随机性与环境随机性的概念起源与发展,系统阐述了其分析方法。归纳了两类随机性在种群绝灭研究中的应用范围、作用方式和特点的异同和区别方法。各类随机作用与种群动态之间关系的理论研究与对种群绝灭机理的实践研究紧密相关。根据理论模型模拟和自然种群实际分析两方面的研究现状,作者提出了进一步深入研究随机作用与种群非线性动态方法的策略。指出了随机干扰影响种群绝灭过程的研究的方向：更多的研究将从单纯的定性分析随机干扰对种群动力学简单性质的作用,转向结合特定的种群非线性动态特征和各类随机力作用特点具体分析绝灭极端动态的成因,以期做出精确的预测。     

种群生存力分析:准确性和保护应用

目前已提出了五类估计濒危物种绝灭风险的种群生存力分析模型 ,即 :分析模型、单种群确定性模型、单种群随机模型、异质种群模型和显空间模型。模型的选择取决于物种的生活史特征和可用的数据。与用于保护实践的其他方法相比 ,种群生存力分析 (PVA)是相对准确的量化工具。然而 ,一些濒危物种种群统计学数据质量差和种群动态的有关假说模糊不清可能影响到模型预测的准确性 ,因此 ,要谨慎地使用PVA。在西方国家 ,PVA在濒危物种保护计划和管理中应用越来越广泛。它主要用于 :( 1)预测濒危物种未来的种群大小 ;( 2 )估计一定时间内物种的绝灭风险 ;( 3 )评估一套保护措施 ,确定哪个能使种群的存活时间最长 ;( 4)探索不同假说对小种群动态的影响 ;( 5 )指导濒危动物野外数据的搜集工作。我国的濒危物种很多 ,然而开展PVA研究的濒危物种却很少。应大力发展适合于模拟我国特有濒危物种及其保护问题的PVA模型     

种群生存力分析（PVA）的方法与应用

随着人们对资源的加速利用,生境丧失和破碎化导致物种濒危问题日益严重.以岛屿生物地理学为理论起源的种群生存力分析（PVA）,通过分析和模拟种群动态过程并建立灭绝概率与种群数量之间的关系,为濒危物种保护提供了重要的理论依据和研究途径.在过去的几十年中,种群生存力分析已成为保护生物学中一项重要的研究内容.目前种群生存力分析发展稳定,但对其实际预测能力和准确性尚存质疑,应用方面也有待进一步发展.种群生存力分析的进一步完善还需要在理论和方法上的创新,特别是籍于景观生态学和可持续性科学的理念,将空间分析手段、经济社会因素纳入到物种和种群的预测和管理上,从而使其 具有更完整的理论基础和更高的实用价值.为此,本文对种群生存力分析的历史、基本概念、研究方法、模型应用和准确性进行了综述,并提出了有关的研究展望.     

湖南洞庭湖麋鹿种群生存力分析

种群生存力分析是通过对种群统计随机性、环境随机性、自然灾害、生境的空间结构以及各种管理措施等因素分析、估计濒危物种种群大小和灭绝风险的方法。洞庭湖麋鹿是一个完全自然野化的野生种群,受洪灾制约,面临着岛屿化和近交衰退的威胁,因此,通过种群监测和生存力分析制定科学有效的保护行动计划十分必要。本研究结果显示,目前湖南洞庭湖分布有3个麋鹿亚群,种群数量为210头左右。根据种群2006—2020年监测数据,参照种群现状、配偶体制、自然灾害、环境容纳量和死亡率等种群参数,利用VORTEX模型(10.5. 5.0)对麋鹿种群100年内的数量动态进行模拟分析,结果表明：在理想状态和环境容纳量为1 000头的情形下,种群在100年间灭绝概率为0,内禀增长率r为0.0991±0.0800,周限增长率λ为1.1041±1.1900,净增长率R0为2.006 2,雌性平均世代更替时间T为7.03年,雄性平均世代更替时间T为8.65年;随着时间推移,近交系数增加8.08%,种群基因期望杂合度和观察杂合度分别下降6.57%和8.30%;敏感度分析发现,洪水灾害是影响洞庭湖麋鹿种群增长的主要因子,并导致生育率下降和...     

物种保护的理论基础——从岛屿生物地理学理论到集合种群理论

全球面临着生境破碎化的危机,物种保护已成为人类面临的重大课题,并不是所有的人对岛屿生物地理学理论的产生及其关注的海洋岛屿都很熟悉,但是越来越多生物赖以生存的自然栖息地的丧失和破碎化都是有目共睹的,岛屿生物地理学和集合种群理论是目前物种保护的两个基本理论,物种迁入率和绝灭率的动态变化决策岛屿上的物种丰富度是岛屿生物地理学理论的核心内容,而集合种群理论关注的是局部种群之间个体迁移的动态以及物种的续存条件,在概述两个理论形成、发展及其核心内容的基础上,着重比较它们的异同点以及在生态学理论和实践中的应用,并论述物种保护理论范式从岛屿生物地理学向集合种群理论转变的基本背景和原因。     

植物种群生存力分析研究进展

对十多年来国外植物PVA的研究进行了综合评述;具体分析了影响植物种群生存力的各种随机性因子及确定性因子;总结了植物PVA研究的方法步骤及采用的模拟模型;探讨了植物PVA的难点,PVA对管理措施的评价效果;并提出对今后植物PVA的研究展望,认为PVA是研究濒危植物种群灭绝及评价管理或保护措施的有力工具;发展描述复杂种间关系的多种种的PVA模型以及包含多个影响因素的PVA应用模型是未来植物PVA的研究方向。     

岛屿生物地理学与集合种群理论的本质与渊源

岛屿生物地理学和集合种群理论是目前生物多样性保育所依赖的主要生态学理论。人们通常强调这两种理论的区别,对它们之间的关联却很少注意到。事实上,这两种理论是同根同源的。以经典集合种群理论的创始者R．Levim对他与岛屿生物地理学的创始者R．H．MaeArthur的合作过程以及岛屿生物地理学对他提出集合种群理论的影响的回顾为基础,分析比较了岛屿生物地理学、经典集合种群理论、以Hanski为代表的现代集合种群理论的基本假设、研究范式和核心思想的异同,简要介绍了多物种集合种群与集合群落研究的差异,最后分析了岛屿生物地理学和集合种群理论在生物多样性保育实践中的应用和存在问题。     

朱鹮(Nipponia nippon)种群生存力分析

到目前为止,只有一个野生朱鹮群体幸存下来,而且它的种群大小自1981年重新发现以来,一直在20只以下波动。本文应用种群生存力分析的方法,借助漩涡模型,根据朱鹮14年的种群数据,总结和预测了其种群动态,并着重研究了朱鹮的濒危程度。结果显示,按过去10余年的生存状况,朱鹮在50年内绝灭的可能性是98.5%,平均绝灭时间为15.72 年。现存种群数量很低,所以种群统计随机性对其命运有很大影响。灵敏度分析表明,当前的朱鹮种群对意外死亡和生存环境的波动较为敏感。保护工作的优先项目是对猎杀和天敌的控制以及从各个方面提高朱鹮的生活质量。     

生境破碎化对动物种群存活的影响

生境破碎是生物多样性下降的主要原因之一。通常以岛屿生物地理学、异质种群生物学和景观生态学的理论来解释不同空间尺度中生境破碎化的生态学效应。生境破碎化引起面积效应、隔离效应和边缘效应。这些效应通过影响动物种群的绝灭阈值、分布和多度、种间关系以及生态系统过程,最终影响动物种群的存活。野外研究表明,破碎化对动物的影响,因物种、生境类型和地理区域不同而有所变化,因此,预测物种在破碎生境中的存活比较困难。研究热点集中于：确定生境面积损失和生境斑块的空间格局对破碎景观中物种绝灭的相对影响,破碎景观中物种的适宜生境比例和绝灭阈值,异质种群动态以及生态系统的生态过程。随着3S技术的发展,生境破碎化模型趋于复杂,而发展有效的模型和验证模型将成为一项富有挑战性的任务。     

唐家河大熊猫种群生存力分析

唐家河大熊猫是一个包括3个亚种群的异质种群,借助于游涡模型（vortex 8.21),对唐家河大熊猫未来100a内的种群动态动物了模拟,并分析了不同因子对该种群命运的影响,结果表明,在不考虑近亲繁殖,灾害等因素的情况下,该种群100a内在总体上保持稳定,并略有增长,但种群基因杂合率下降,累积绝灭率增加,尤以薄衣沟亚种群为最,提高环境容纳量,补充外来个体等措施能在不同程度上有利于该种群的长期存活,而近亲繁殖,灾害等因素则大大加速了种群的灭绝步伐,另外,成功的迁移扩散有利于异质种群的稳定与发展,否则对数量稀少的大熊猫种群有害无益,最后提出了针对性的保护与管理建议。     

Sheltered from the storm? Population viability analysis of a rare endemic under periodic catastrophe regimes

Rare species are important targets for biodiversity conservation efforts because rarity often equates to small populations and increased endangerment. Rare species are prone to stochastic extinction events and may be particularly susceptible to catastrophes. Therefore, understanding how rare species respond to disturbances is critical for evaluating extinction risk and guiding conservation managers. Population viability analyses (PVAs) are essential for assessing rare species' status yet they seldom consider catastrophic events. Accordingly, we present a PVA of a rare tropical epiphyte, Lepanthes caritensis (Orchidaceae), under simulated disturbance regimes to evaluate its demographics and extinction risk. We aimed to test how demographic models incorporating catastrophes affect population viability estimates. Our goal was to better guide management of these orchids and other rare plants. Results revealed L. caritensis numbers have declined recently, but projected growth rates indicated that most subpopulations should increase in size if undisturbed. Still, projection models show that moderate catastrophes reduce growth rates, increase stochasticity in subpopulation sizes, and elevate extinction risk. Severe catastrophes had a more pronounced effect in simulations; growth rates fell below replacement level, there was greater variation in projected population sizes, and extinction risk was significantly higher. PVAs incorporating periodic catastrophes indicate that rare species may have greater extinction probabilities than standard models suggest. Thus, precautionary conservation measures should be taken in disturbance prone settings and we encourage careful monitoring after environmental catastrophes. Future rare plant PVAs should incorporate catastrophes and aim to determine if rescue and reintroduction efforts are necessary after disturbances to insure long-term population viability.     

Bottlenecks in large populations: the effect of immigration on population viability

We model a large population that is subject to successive short bottlenecks, in order to investigate the impact of different extents of immigration on the change in genetic load and on viability. A first simple genetic model uncovers the opposite effects of immigration on fitness according to the type of deleterious mutations considered: immigration increases fitness if the genetic load is comprised of mildly deleterious mutations, whereas it decreases fitness if it is comprised of lethals. When considering both types of mutations and adding explicit stochastic demographic considerations, in which bottlenecks are engendered by random catastrophes, the global impact of immigration on viability is dependent upon a balance between its opposite effects on the two components of the genetic load and on demographic stochasticity. In this context, immigration tends to increase the probability of extinction if occurring preferentially when population density is high, while it decreases extinction if occurring preferentially towards low-density populations.     

Effectiveness of a reserve network for the conservation of the endemic marsupial Micoureus travassosi in Atlantic Forest remnants in southeastern Brazil

Habitat loss and fragmentation are serious threats to biodiversity conservation in the Atlantic Forest. A network of protected reserves is essential to the protection of native fauna and flora. However, internal and external factors may threaten the preservation of biota, thus population viability analyses (PVA) are important tools in reserve design and management planning. A PVA was carried out, using the computer package VORTEX, to assess the effectiveness of the reserve network of Rio de Janeiro State in Brazil in retaining viable populations of the endemic marsupial Micoureus travassosi. The PVA takes into account demographic, genetic and environmental stochastic events and catastrophes (fire). Rio de Janeiro state has 31 reserves, and 20 of those were considered to retain viable populations for 100 years, whereas eight were predicted to suffer from genetic decay, two from both genetic decay and demographic stochasticity, and one of them probably has an extinct population. The minimum area of suitable habitat needed to maintain a minimum viable population of M. travassosi is estimated at 3600ha. Sensitivity analysis was run for mortality, sex ratio, percentage of reproductive females, inbreeding depression and probability of catastrophes, and suggests that inbreeding depression is important in small population sizes, whereas the effects of catastrophes were significant only for large populations. Although the model indicates that some populations will suffer from demographic and/or genetic stochasticity, the reserve network of Rio de Janeiro state will likely keep M. travassosi's populations for the next 100 years.     

Metapopulation dynamics: Does it help to have more of the same?

With the interest in conservation biology shifting towards processes from patterns, and to populations from communities, the theory of metapopulation dynamics is replacing the equilibrium theory of island biogeography as the population ecology paradigm in conservation biology. The simplest models of metapopulation dynamics make predictions about the effects of habitat fragmentation - size and isolation of habitat patches - on metapopulation persistence. The simple models may be enriched by considerations of the effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the size and extinction probability of local populations. Environmental stochasticity affects populations at two levels: it makes local extinctions more probable, and it also decreases metapopulation persistence time by increasing the correlation of extinction events across populations. Some controversy has arisen over the significance of correlated extinctions, and how they may affect the optimal subdivision of metapopulations to maximize their persistence time.     

Considering threats to population viability of the endangered Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using VORTEX

Population viability analysis (PVA) has frequently been used in conservation biology to predict extinction rates for threatened or endangered species. In this study, we used VORTEX to model Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using previously collected ecological data. We focused on modelling population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. The minimum viable population size was found to be at least 50 gorals for 100 years, regardless of carrying capacity. However, populations with fewer than 50 gorals could not remain successful in the model. Inbreeding depression, catastrophes and supplementation also affected patterns of population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. Supplementation with new individuals had the strongest effect on extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity, followed by initial population size, inbreeding, catastrophes and carrying capacity. These results suggest that a supplementation by extra goral individuals from goral proliferation facilities would be the most helpful means for the restoration programme. More Korean goral-specific information regarding demographic and habitat parameters is needed for further PVA of the species.     

Population viability analysis of a Japanese black bear population

A population viability analysis (PVA) was conducted for a Japanese black bear population in Shimokita Peninsula, northern Japan, using an individual-based simulation model. Demographic stochasticity was incorporated in the model as well as the environmental stochasticity from the fluctuation of annual mast production. The extinction risk of the population was estimated with an emphasis on the effect of carrying capacity reduction and hunting pressure. The results suggest that the population has a high risk of extinction. Even if there is no further reduction of the carrying capacity and no hunting at all, the present size of the population cannot pass the test of the minimum viable population size (MVP) concept. Considering possible carrying capacity reduction in the future and actual hunting pressure, the population will fail to survive for 100 years at a very high probability. Because of deterioration of habitat and loss of the corridor between habitat areas, the population has become very sensitive to demographic impacts, including hunting pressure. Received: March 31, 1999 / Accepted: February 10, 2000     

Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations

Understanding population extinctions is a chief goal of ecological theory. While stochastic theories of population growth are commonly used to forecast extinction, models used for prediction have not been adequately tested with experimental data. In a previously published experiment, variation in available food was experimentally manipulated in 281 laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test hypothesized effects of environmental variation on population persistence. Here, half of those data were used to select and fit a stochastic model of population growth to predict extinctions of populations in the other half. When density-dependent demographic stochasticity was detected and incorporated in simple stochastic models, rates of population extinction were accurately predicted or only slightly biased. However, when density-dependent demographic stochasticity was not accounted for, as is usual when forecasting extinction of threatened and endangered species, predicted extinction rates were severely biased. Thus, an experimental demonstration shows that reliable estimates of extinction risk may be obtained for populations in variable environments if high-quality data are available for model selection and if density-dependent demographic stochasticity is accounted for. These results suggest that further consideration of density-dependent demographic stochasticity is required if predicted extinction rates are to be relied upon for conservation planning.