Population dynamics of the Grey Partridge Perdix perdix 1793–1993: monitoring, modelling and management

The longest available bag record of Grey Partridges Perdix perdix in Great Britain (1793–1993) reveals a collapse of stocks after 1952 despite considerable annual variation. The annual fluctuations were attributable largely to annual variations in chick survival rate. The Game Conservancy Trust's National Game Census revealed that chick survival rates averaged 49% before the introduction of herbicides and 32% once their use became widespread. On a study area in Sussex, where spring density declined from around 21 pairs per km² in 1968 to under four pairs per km² in 1993, annual chick survival rates averaged 28% with no demonstrable trend. The annual over-winter "survival" rates in the area improved during 1968–1993, whereas brood production rates declined. Simulation modelling showed that a reduction in chick survival rate from 49% to 32% had little effect on spring stocks as long as nest predation was controlled but that stocks collapsed when nest predation control was relaxed. The effect of such a change in chick survival rate on population status was investigated by reference to 36 other studies in the literature. Amongst 20 studied populations which were stable, adjusting mean chick survival rates downwards produced demographic parameters characteristic of declining populations in all but two cases. Conversely, adjusting chick survival rates upwards for 16 declining populations made all but two stable. Diagnosing and remedying the causes of population change require a testable understanding of density-dependent factors and compensatory processes, best approached by a combination of monitoring, modelling and management.     

Nesting area fidelity and survival of female Common Goldeneyes Bucephala clangula: are they density‐dependent?

The breeding histories of 218 female Common Goldeneyes Bucephala clangula were recorded between 1971 and 2000 in a study area in Schleswig-Holstein, northern Germany. Females were first recorded breeding at a median age of 2 years usually in their area of hatching (philopatry). One hundred and two of 140 females (73%) re-nested only in one of the 13 nesting areas (clusters of nestboxes) for all their known life of up to 13 breeding seasons. The remaining 38 individuals moved between different nesting areas at least once between breeding attempts. The two oldest females were still breeding at a minimum age of 15 years (i.e. 13 years between first and last recorded breeding attempt). Temporal variations in annual survival rates of adult females could best be explained by a model with annual survival rate varying independently and randomly about a mean of 0.830 (se = ±0.023) with an estimated sd of ±0.092 (95% CI = 0.064, 0.138). No trend in the annual survival rate was detected over the study period of 30 years, although the presence of a moderate trend could not be ruled out. The absence of any discernible trend in survival at a time when the population size increased substantially indicates little, if any, density-dependence in survival of female Goldeneyes during this study.     

Nesting Biology of Urban Cooper's Hawks in Milwaukee,Wisconsin

ABSTRACT Urban landscapes vary greatly across North America and long-term data on the nesting biology of Cooper's hawks (Accipiter cooperii) from a variety of urban environments will improve our understanding of these poorly studied populations. We studied Cooper's hawks nesting in the metropolitan Milwaukee area, Wisconsin, USA, over a 12-year period, 1993–2004. Nesting success for 254 first nesting attempts averaged 64.6% with means of 2.27 young per laying pair and 3.53 young per successful pair. For 8 second nesting attempts (i.e., re-nests), nesting success averaged 87.5% with means of 2.57 young per laying pair and 3.00 young per successful pair. Productivity for first nesting attempts did not vary over the 12-year period, and productivity for re-nests did not differ from first nesting attempts. We documented evidence of nest predation by raccoons (Procyon lotor) and red-tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis). On average, second year (SY [i.e., 1-yr-old]) Cooper's hawks comprised 14.6% (43 of 295 breeding birds; 21.5% [37 of 172] of F and 4.9% [6 of 123] of M) of the known breeding population. The percentage of SY breeders within this population declined over the 12-year period, suggesting a relatively young population. Cooper's hawks consistently reoccupied nest sites annually after initial discovery over an estimated 2 generations of breeding adults, suggesting that population density for our study was at least stable. We trapped 105 breeding adults, including 5 natal dispersal birds. Based on long-term, relatively high reproduction, repeated re-occupancy of nest sites, and confirmed recruitment from within this population, we suggest that these nesting areas were not marginal or inferior habitats and that urban Cooper's hawks in this study area were not a sink population. We recommend no active management of this population at this time; however, additional information for nesting Cooper's hawks from other urban environs will expand our knowledge base for these populations.     

GRIZZLY BEAR DEMOGRAPHICS IN AND AROUND BANFF NATIONAL PARK AND KANANASKIS COUNTRY,ALBERTA

Abstract: The area in and around Banff National Park (BNP) in southwestern Alberta, Canada, is 1 of the most heavily used and developed areas where grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) still exist. During 1994–2002, we radiomarked and monitored 37 female and 34 male bears in this area to estimate rates of survival, reproduction, and population growth. Annual survival rates of bears other than dependent young averaged 95% for females and 81–85% for males. Although this area was largely unhunted, humans caused 75% of female mortality and 86% of male mortality. Females produced their first surviving litter at 6–12 years of age (x̄ = 8.4 years). Litters averaged 1.84 cubs spaced at 4.4-year intervals. Adult (≥6-years-old) females produced 0.24 female cubs per year and were expected to produce an average of 1.7 female cubs in their lifetime, based on rates of reproduction and survival. Cub survival was 79%, yearling survival was 91%, and survival through independence at 2.5–5.5 years of age was 72%, as no dependent young older than yearlings died. Although this is the slowest-reproducing grizzly bear population yet studied, high rates of survival seem to have enabled positive population growth (Λ = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.99–1.09), based on analyses using Leslie matrices. Current management practices, instituted in the late 1980s, focus on alleviating human-caused bear mortality. If the 1970–1980s style of management had continued, we estimated that an average of 1 more radiomarked female would have been killed each year, reducing female survival to the point that the population would have declined.     

The effect of age and year on the survival of breeding adult Great Skuas Catharacta skua in Shetland

The survival rates of breeding adult Great Skuas Catharacta skua were examined at Foula, the largest colony in the world, where numbers have been declining since the late 1970s. Resightings of colour-ringed breeding adults over a 12-year period were analysed using Cormack-Jolly Seber models to estimate survival rates. Annual survival rates averaged 0.89 but varied among years between 0.82 and 0.93, with annual variations being temporally associated with variations in sandeel abundance during the breeding season. Most birds appeared to die outside the breeding season and so it is possible that nutritional stress and reproductive costs of breeding in years of poor food supply affect survivorship on migration or in the wintering range. Survival rates of adult Great Skuas were affected by their age according to a quadratic equation, with survival increasing significantly with age from 0.73 in 5-year-old-birds to between 0.85 and 0.96 in birds from 7 to 22 years old, with a sharp decline to between 0.75 and 0.87 in birds over 22 years old. Year effects were evident when controlling for age, indicating that annual variations in survival rates are not explained by changes in age-composition of the marked population among years.     

Home range and survival characteristics of male Bachman's Sparrows in an old-growth forest managed with breeding season burns

ABSTRACT.   Prescribed burning is essential for maintaining suitable habitat for Bachman's Sparrows ( Aimophila aestivalis ), but burns conducted during the breeding season may lead to site abandonment and low survival or productivity. We monitored a color-banded population of Bachman's Sparrow in Georgia for four breeding seasons to assess home range size, site fidelity, and survival in an area managed primarily using breeding season burns. Our study area was one of the last remaining tracts of old-growth longleaf pine ( Pinus palustris ), and alternating halves of the tract were burned during the breeding season during each year of our study. Mean home range size for males ( N = 46) during the breeding season was 3.1 ha based on 95% fixed kernel analysis and 1.8 ha based on minimum convex polygons. Breeding season burning had no effect on male site fidelity and home range characteristics. The proportion of males remaining on burned areas was similar to the proportion remaining on unburned areas. Shifts in home range centroids pre- and postburn were also similar for males on unburned (median = 49.7 m) and burned (median = 65.6 m) areas. In addition, the size of home ranges that were burned ( ha) was similar to that of home ranges that were not burned ( ha). Estimated annual survival for males was 0.59. The median shift in annual home range centers calculated for 38 males observed during multiple breeding seasons was 63 m and, coupled with our survival estimates, suggest greater site fidelity than previously reported. These results suggest that breeding season burns were not as detrimental to Bachman's Sparrows as reported at other locations, and such burns may be helpful in maintaining suitable habitat.     

High survival rate and site fidelity in the Siberian Tit Parus cinctus, a focal species of the taiga

The Siberian Tit Parus cinctus population of Finland, and probably of the whole of Fennoscandia, has declined dramatically during this century. Understanding its population dynamics is essential for its conservation. We studied annual survival rate and dispersal distance of both breeding and fledgling Siberian Tits during 1989-97 in a moderately managed forest habitat near the southern border of its range in Kuusamo, northeastern Finland. Breeding density was low, averaging 0.51 pairs/km in a nestbox area of about 42 km². This was probably an underestimate, because we did not search for nests in natural holes. However, following its population decline, overall densities at the southern border of the range are low. The study area was, however, suitable breeding habitat as reflected by their high nesting success. Brood size at fledging averaged 7.45 young, and reproductive output was 6.16 young per breeding pair, including failed nests. Clutch size adjustment was successful among pairs producing fledglings because, on average, 92.6% of the eggs laid produced young in successful broods. Median distance between consecutive breeding attempts was 100 m for both males and females (range 0–2500 m and 0–6000 m, respectively). Natal dispersal distance was significantly longer in females than in males. We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber modelling to estimate survival and recapture probabilities separately. Survival of breeding birds was not sex-related, averaging 0.69 annually. Some of the ringed fledglings (3.0%) were later captured as breeders in the area. This is an underestimate of local survival rate due to incomplete recapturing of breeding birds. The implications of these results with respect to the conservation status of the species are discussed.     

Winter Distribution,Movements, and Annual Survival of Radiomarked Vancouver Canada Geese in Southeast Alaska

ABSTRACT Management of Pacific Flyway Canada geese (Branta canadensis) requires information on winter distribution of different populations. Recoveries of tarsus bands from Vancouver Canada geese (B. canadensis fulva) marked in southeast Alaska, USA, ≥4 decades ago suggested that ≥83% of the population was non-migratory and that annual adult survival was high (Ŝ = 0.836). However, recovery distribution of tarsus bands was potentially biased due to geographic differences in harvest intensity in the Pacific Flyway. Also, winter distribution of Vancouver Canada geese could have shifted since the 1960s, as has occurred for some other populations of Canada geese. Because winter distribution and annual survival of this population had not recently been evaluated, we surgically implanted very high frequency radiotransmitters in 166 adult female Canada geese in southeast Alaska. We captured Vancouver Canada geese during molt at 2 sites where adults with goslings were present (breeding areas) and 2 sites where we observed nonbreeding birds only. During winter radiotracking flights in southeast Alaska, we detected 98% of 85 females marked at breeding areas and 83% of 70 females marked at nonbreeding sites, excluding 11 females that died prior to the onset of winter radiotracking. We detected no radiomarked females in coastal British Columbia, or western Washington and Oregon, USA. Most (70%) females moved ≤30 km between November and March. Our model-averaged estimate of annual survival (Ŝ = 0.844, SE = 0.050) was similar to the estimate of annual survival of geese marked from 1956 to 1960. Likely <2% of Vancouver Canada geese that nest in southeast Alaska migrate to winter areas in Oregon or Washington where they could intermix with Canada geese from other populations in the Pacific Flyway. Because annual survival of adult Vancouver Canada geese was high and showed evidence of long-term consistency, managers should examine how reproductive success and recruitment may affect the population.     

Annual-Cycle Movements and Phenology of Black Scoters in Eastern North America

Sea ducks exhibit complex movement patterns throughout their annual cycle; most species use distinct molting and staging sites during migration and disjunct breeding and wintering sites. Although research on black scoters (Melanitta americana) has investigated movements and habitat selection during winter, little is known about their annual-cycle movements. We used satellite telemetry to identify individual variation in migratory routes and breeding areas for black scoters wintering along the Atlantic Coast, to assess migratory connectivity among wintering, staging, breeding, and molt sites, and to examine effects of breeding site attendance on movement patterns and phenology. Black scoters occupied wintering areas from Canadian Maritime provinces to the southeastern United States. Males used an average of 2.5 distinct winter areas compared to 1.1 areas for females, and within-winter movements averaged 1,256 km/individual. Individuals used an average of 2.1 staging sites during the 45-day pre-breeding migration period, and almost all were detected in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Males spent less time at breeding sites and departed them earlier than females. During post-breeding migration, females took approximately 25 fewer days than males to migrate from breeding sites to molt and staging sites, and then wintering areas. Most individuals used molt sites in James and Hudson bays before migrating directly to coastal wintering sites, which took approximately 11 days and covered 1,524 km. Males tended to arrive at wintering areas 10 days earlier than females. Individuals wintering near one another did not breed closer together than expected by chance, suggesting weak spatial structuring of the Atlantic population. Females exhibited greater fidelity (4.5 km) to previously used breeding sites compared to males (60 km). A substantial number of birds bred west of Hudson Bay in the Barrenlands, suggesting this area is used more widely than believed previously. Hudson and James bays provided key habitat for black scoters that winter along the Atlantic Coast, with most individuals residing for >30% of their annual cycle in these bays. Relative to other species of sea duck along the Atlantic Coast, the Atlantic population of black scoter is more dispersed and mobile during winter but is more concentrated during migration. These results could have implications for future survey efforts designed to assess population trends of black scoters. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Breeding ecology of the Sulawesi Red-Knobbed Hornbill Aceros cassidix

Data are presented for a four-year study of the breeding biology of the Sulawesi Red-knobbed Hornbill Aceros cassidix. The breeding season normally began in mid-June and lasted 27–30 weeks. Initiation of nesting appeared to be stimulated by the cessation of the rains and timed such that chicks emerged during a period of fruit abundance. Nesting period averaged 139 days and incubation was estimated at 35–40 days. Females remain sealed in the nest for an average of 108 days and nestlings fledged, on average, 28 davs after the female emerged. Nesting densities were up to 10.4/km², nesting success was high (up to 80%) and repeated use of nests between years was common. Males delivered a low-protein diet of ripe fruits (89% of total diet) from 12 families and 52 species; invertebrates composed only 1% of food items. Figs ( Ficus spp.) were the primary diet item, accounting for 81% of fruit biomass. Males increased feeding visits throughout the study, but the biomass of fruit delivered declined shortly after the female emerged. Reduced feeding prior to fledging may entice the nestling to emerge. The long developmental period of Sulawesi Red-knobbed Hornbills may result, in part, from the low protein content of the diet. Despite a 16% annual production, numbers in the study area have remained stable over the past 15 years. It is suggested that high post-fledging mortality or dispersal to degraded areas outside the reserve maintains population numbers. Distinguishing between these mechanisms is important for understanding the dynamics of hornbill populations.     

Demographics of an Experimentally Released Population of Elk in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

ABSTRACT We assessed the potential for reestablishing elk (Cervus elaphus) in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), USA, by estimating vital rates of experimentally released animals from 2001 to 2006. Annual survival rates for calves ranged from 0.333 to 1.0 and averaged 0.592. Annual survival for subadult and adult elk (i.e., ≥ 1 yr of age) ranged from 0.690 to 0.933, depending on age and sex. We used those and other vital rates to model projected population growth and viability using a stochastic individual-based model. The annual growth rate (λ) of the modeled population over a 25-year period averaged 0.996 and declined from 1.059 the first year to 0.990 at year 25. The modeled population failed to attain a positive 25-year mean growth rate in 46.0% of the projections. Poor calf recruitment was an important determinant of low population growth. Predation by black bears (Ursus americanus) was the dominant calf mortality factor. Most of the variance of growth projections was due to demographic variation resulting from the small population size (n = 61). Management actions such as predator control may help increase calf recruitment, but our projections suggest that the GSMNP elk population may be at risk for some time because of high demographic variation.     

Age‐specific survival and recruitment of piping plovers Charadrius melodus in the Great Lakes region

Juvenile survival and age at first breeding (i.e. recruitment) are critical parameters affecting population dynamics in birds, but high levels of natal dispersal preclude measurement of these variables in most species. We used multi‐state capture–recapture models to measure age‐specific survival and recruitment probabilities of piping plovers Charadrius melodus in the Great Lakes region during 1993–2012. This federally endangered population is thoroughly monitored throughout its entire breeding range, minimizing concerns that measures of survival and recruitment are confounded by temporary or permanent emigration. First‐year survival (± SE) averaged 0.284 ± 0.019 from mean banding age (9 d) and 0.374 ± 0.023 from fledging age (23 d). Factors that increased first‐year survival during the pre‐fledging period (9–23 d) included earlier hatching dates, older age at banding, greater number of fledglings at a given site, and better body condition at time of banding. However, when chicks that died prior to fledging were excluded from analysis, only earlier hatching dates improved first‐year survival estimates. Females had a higher probability (0.557 ± 0.066) of initiating breeding at age one than did males (0.353 ± 0.052), but virtually all plovers began breeding by age three. Adult survival was reduced by increased hurricane activity on the southeast U.S. Atlantic coast where Great Lakes piping plovers winter and by higher populations of merlins Falco columbarius. Mean annual adult survival declined from 1993 to 2012, and did not differ between males and females. Enhanced body condition led to higher survival to fledge and early breeding led to improved first‐year survival; therefore, management actions focused on ensuring access to quality feeding habitat for growing young and protecting early nests may increase recruitment in this federally endangered population.     

Survival,Movements, and Reproduction of Translocated Greater Sage-Grouse in Strawberry Valley,Utah

Abstract Translocations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) have been attempted in 7 states and one Canadian province with very little success. To recover a small remnant population and test the efficacy of sage-grouse translocations, we captured and transported 137 adult female sage-grouse from 2 source populations to a release site in Strawberry Valley, Utah, USA, during March-April 2003–2005. The resident population of sage-grouse in Strawberry Valley was approximately 150 breeding birds prior to the release. We radiomarked each female and documented survival, movements, reproductive effort, flocking with resident grouse, and lek attendance. We used Program MARK to calculate annual survival of translocated females in the first year after release, which averaged 0.60 (95% CI = 0.515-0.681). Movements of translocated females were within current and historic sage-grouse habitat in Strawberry Valley, and we detected no grouse outside of the study area. Nesting propensity for first (newly translocated) and second (surviving) year females was 39% and 73%, respectively. Observed nest success of all translocated females during the study was 67%. By the end of their first year in Strawberry Valley, 100% of the living translocated sage-grouse were in flocks with resident sage-grouse. The translocated grouse attended the same lek as the birds with which they were grouped. In 2006, the peak male count for the only remaining active lek in Strawberry Valley was almost 4 times (135 M) the 6-year pretranslocation (1998–2003) average peak attendance of 36 males (range 24–50 M). Translocations can be an effective management tool to increase small populations of greater sage-grouse when conducted during the breeding season and before target populations have been extirpated.     

Farmland habitat selection of wintering lesser kestrels in a Spanish pseudosteppe: implications for conservation strategies

The lesser kestrel Falco naumanni is a globally threatened species, whose breeding populations seem to have declined due to recent agricultural changes. However, nothing is known about habitat requirements during winter, despite the fact that several populations are overwintering in areas affected by agricultural transformations. We studied population size and habitat selection by wintering lesser kestrels in a Spanish pseudosteppe (Los Monegros), where traditional fallow systems for cereals are rapidly being replaced by intensive and/or irrigated crops. About 15% of the adult population wintered in the study area, as determined by systematic roadside counts compared with accurate censuses made during the breeding season. Wintering lesser kestrels preferred to forage on field margins and stubble, while avoiding abandoned fields, ploughs, scrubland, growing cereals and, mainly, the expanding irrigated crops. This work confirms the need to incorporate the habitat requirements of threatened species over their complete annual cycles; while breeding lesser kestrels scarcely use fallow (ploughed at that time), during the winter, fallow (stubble at that time) is their main foraging habitat. Both fallow land and the present agricultural calendar should be maintained to assure the conservation of wintering lesser kestrel populations.     

Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990–2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark–recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised ≥1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (λ) estimated from average vital rates was λ_a = 1.072 with λ_i = 1.288 during colony increase and λ_d = 0.921 (Δλ = 0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Demographic responses of eastern bluebirds to climatic variability in northeastern Arkansas

As climate change continues to alter temperature and precipitation patterns, numerous species have declined. However, populations of some species that show responses to climate change, such as eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis), have increased or remained stable nationwide. To understand how species are adapting to climate change, we estimated demographic parameters and their responses to climatic variability, using nesting and banding-recapture data between 2003 and 2018 in a northeastern Arkansas eastern bluebird population. Increasing variability in precipitation in the nonbreeding season negatively affected hatchability. Hatching success was negatively affected by increasing variability in maximum temperatures and the number of hot days during the breeding season, but positively affected by increasing winter snow depth. Adult survival was positively affected by increasing snow depth and variability in the number of hot days during the breeding season, but negatively affected by increasing variability in nonbreeding season temperatures. Our results demonstrate that for this study population, annual breeding parameters, though canalized against interannual environmental variation, were affected by seasonal climatic variability. Although climate change may benefit bluebird survival due to increasing variability in winter temperatures and the number of hot days, climatic variability negatively affected breeding parameters and is expected to increase. Because breeding parameters are typically the drivers of population growth rate in short-lived species, these results raise concern for the future of this population of eastern bluebirds.     

Habitat loss and raptor predation: disentangling long- and short-term causes of red grouse declines

The number of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) shot in the UK has declined by 50% during the 20th century This decline has coincided with reductions in the area of suitable habitat and recoveries in the populations of some avian predators. Here we use long-term records of shooting bags and a large-scale manipulation of raptor density to disentangle the effects of habitat loss and raptor predation on grouse populations. The numbers of grouse harvested on the Eskdale half of Langholm Moor in southern Scotland declined significantly during 1913-1990 and grouse bags from the whole moor from 1950 to 1990 exhibited an almost identical but non-significant trend. Hen harriers (Circus cyaneus) and peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) were absent or bred at low densities on this moor throughout this period but heather-dominant vegetation declined by 48% between 1948 and 1988. Harrier and peregrine breeding numbers on Langholm Moor increased to high levels following protection in 1990 whilst grouse density and grouse bags declined year after year until shooting was abandoned in 1998. The prediction of a peak in grouse bags on Langholm Moor in 1996 based on the patterns of bags during 1950-1990 was supported by the observed peaks in 1997 on two nearby moors with few raptors which formerly cycled in synchrony with Langholm Moor. This study demonstrates that, whilst long-term declines in grouse bags were most probably due to habitat loss, high levels of raptor predation subsequently limited the grouse population and suppressed a cycle. This study thus offers support to theoretical models which predict that generalist predators may suppress cycles in prey populations.     

Rain, breeding success and distribution of Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus and Black Grouse Tetrao tetrix in Scotland

The number of chicks reared by Capercaillie was inversely related to the number of days with rain during and just after their hatching. However, rain had no detectable effect on the breeding success of Black Grouse on the same study area. The breeding distribution of Capercaillie in Scotland is more limited than that of Black Grouse, which extends into rainier areas. It is speculated that sexual selection for large size in Capercaillie has indirectly caused their chicks to be more vulnerable to rain and, consequently, has limited their distribution to less rainy areas.     

Marked reduction in demographic rates and reduced fitness advantage for early breeding is not linked to reduced thermal matching of breeding time

Warmer springs may cause animals to become mistimed if advances of spring timing, including available resources and of timing of breeding occur at different speed. We used thermal sums (cumulative sum of degree days) during spring to describe the thermal progression (timing) of spring and investigate its relationship to breeding phenology and demography of a long‐distant migrant bird, the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe L.). We first compare 20‐year trends in spring timing, breeding time, selection for breeding time, and annual demographic rates. We then explicitly test whether annual variation in selection for breeding time and demographic rates associates with the degree of phenological matching between breeding time and thermal progression of spring. Both thermal progression of spring and breeding time of wheatears advanced in time during the study period. But despite breeding on average 7 days earlier with respect to date, wheatears bred about 4 days later with respect to thermal spring progression. Over the same time period, selection for breeding time changed from distinct within‐season advantage of breeding early to no or very weak advantage. Furthermore, demographic rates (nest success, fledgling production, recruitment, adult survival) and nestling weight declined markedly by 16%–79%. Those temporal trends suggest that a reduced degree of phenological matching may affect within‐season fitness advantage of early breeding and population demographic rates. In contrast, when we investigate links based on annual variation, we find no significant relationship between either demographic rates or fitness advantage of early breeding with annual variation in the degree of phenological matching. Our results show that corresponding temporal trends in phenological matching, selection for breeding time and demographic rates are inconclusive evidence for demographic effects of changed phenological matching. Instead, we suggest that the trends in selection for breeding time and demographic rates are due to a general deterioration of the breeding environment.     

Sea ice affects the population dynamics of Adélie penguins in Terre Adélie

Overall Adélie penguin population size in Pointe Géologie Archipelago increased between 1984 and 2003 at a rate of 1.77% per year, and averaged 33,726±5,867 pairs. As predicted by the optimum model proposed by Smith et al. (Bioscience 49:393–404, 1999). Adélie penguin population size increased when sea ice extent and concentration (SIE and SIC) decreased six years earlier, indicating that the conditions around reproduction or first years at sea, were determinant. The breeding success averaged 85.2±35.45% and was not related to environmental variables. Adult survival probability varied between years from 0.64 to 0.82. Southern oscillation index (SOI) had a strong negative effect on adult annual survival. Adult survival of Adélie penguins increased during warmer events, especially during winter and spring at the beginning of reproduction. Therefore, we speculate that the rapid decreases in 1988–1991 and 1996 of the breeding population size were related to a decrease in adult mortality. However, adult survival varied little, and could not explain the strong increasing population trend. The sea ice conditions during breeding or during the first year at sea appeared determinant and influenced the population dynamics through cohort effects, probably related to the availability of productive feeding habitats.