Spatial Predictions of Rhodesian Human African Trypanosomiasis (Sleeping Sickness) Prevalence in Kaberamaido and Dokolo,Two Newly Affected Districts of Uganda

The continued northwards spread of Rhodesian sleeping sickness or Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) within Uganda is raising concerns of overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Disease convergence would result in compromised diagnosis and treatment for HAT. Spatial determinants for HAT are poorly understood across small areas. This study examines the relationships between Rhodesian HAT and several environmental, climatic and social factors in two newly affected districts, Kaberamaido and Dokolo. A one-step logistic regression analysis of HAT prevalence and a two-step logistic regression method permitted separate analysis of both HAT occurrence and HAT prevalence. Both the occurrence and prevalence of HAT were negatively correlated with distance to the closest livestock market in all models. The significance of distance to the closest livestock market strongly indicates that HAT may have been introduced to this previously unaffected area via the movement of infected, untreated livestock from endemic areas. This illustrates the importance of the animal reservoir in disease transmission, and highlights the need for trypanosomiasis control in livestock and the stringent implementation of regulations requiring the treatment of cattle prior to sale at livestock markets to prevent any further spread of Rhodesian HAT within Uganda.     

Incorporating Scale Dependence in Disease Burden Estimates: The Case of Human African Trypanosomiasis in Uganda

Background

The WHO has established the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) as a metric for measuring the burden of human disease and injury globally. However, most DALY estimates have been calculated as national totals. We mapped spatial variation in the burden of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda for the years 2000–2009. This represents the first geographically delimited estimation of HAT disease burden at the sub-country scale.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) totals for HAT were estimated based on modelled age and mortality distributions, mapped using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software, and summarised by parish and district. While the national total burden of HAT is low relative to other conditions, high-impact districts in Uganda had DALY rates comparable to the national burden rates for major infectious diseases. The calculated average national DALY rate for 2000–2009 was 486.3 DALYs/100 000 persons/year, whereas three districts afflicted by rhodesiense HAT in southeastern Uganda had burden rates above 5000 DALYs/100 000 persons/year, comparable to national GBD 2004 average burden rates for malaria and HIV/AIDS.

Conclusions/Significance

These results provide updated and improved estimates of HAT burden across Uganda, taking into account sensitivity to under-reporting. Our results highlight the critical importance of spatial scale in disease burden analyses. National aggregations of disease burden have resulted in an implied bias against highly focal diseases for which geographically targeted interventions may be feasible and cost-effective. This has significant implications for the use of DALY estimates to prioritize disease interventions and inform cost-benefit analyses.     

Socio-Economic and Cultural Determinants of Human African Trypanosomiasis at the Kenya – Uganda Transboundary

Background

Kenya and Uganda have reported different Human African Trypanosomiasis incidences in the past more than three decades, with the latter recording more cases. This cross-sectional study assessed the demographic characteristics, tsetse and trypanosomiasis control practices, socio-economic and cultural risk factors influencing Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense (T.b.r.) infection in Teso and Busia Districts, Western Kenya and Tororo and Busia Districts, Southeast Uganda. A conceptual framework was postulated to explain interactions of various socio-economic, cultural and tsetse control factors that predispose individuals and populations to HAT.

Methods

A cross-sectional household survey was conducted between April and October 2008. Four administrative districts reporting T.b.r and lying adjacent to each other at the international boundary of Kenya and Uganda were purposely selected. Household data collection was carried out in two villages that had experienced HAT and one other village that had no reported HAT case from 1977 to 2008 in each district. A structured questionnaire was administered to 384 randomly selected household heads or their representatives in each country. The percent of respondents giving a specific answer was reported. Secondary data was also obtained on socio-economic and political issues in both countries.

Results

Inadequate knowledge on the disease cycle and intervention measures contributed considerable barriers to HAT, and more so in Uganda than in Kenya. Gender-associated socio-cultural practices greatly predisposed individuals to HAT. Pesticides-based crop husbandry in the 1970''s reportedly reduced vector population while vegetation of coffee and banana''s and livestock husbandry directly increased occurrence of HAT. Livestock husbandry practices in the villages were strong predictors of HAT incidence. The residents in Kenya (6.7%) applied chemoprophylaxis and chemotherapeutic controls against trypanosomiasis to a larger extent than Uganda (2.1%).

Conclusion

Knowledge on tsetse and its control methods, culture, farming practice, demographic and socio-economic variables explained occurrence of HAT better than landscape features.     

Focus-specific clinical profiles in human African Trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense

Background

Diverse clinical features have been reported in human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) foci caused by Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense (T.b.rhodesiense) giving rise to the hypothesis that HAT manifests as a chronic disease in South-East African countries and increased in virulence towards the North. Such variation in disease severity suggests there are differences in host susceptibility to trypanosome infection and/or genetic variation in trypanosome virulence. Our molecular tools allow us to study the role of host and parasite genotypes, but obtaining matched extensive clinical data from a large cohort of HAT patients has previously proved problematic.

Methods/Principal Findings

We present a retrospective cohort study providing detailed clinical profiles of 275 HAT patients recruited in two northern foci (Uganda) and one southern focus (Malawi) in East Africa. Characteristic clinical signs and symptoms of T.b.rhodesiense infection were recorded and the degree of neurological dysfunction determined on admission. Clinical observations were mapped by patient estimated post-infection time. We have identified common presenting symptoms in T.b.rhodesiense infection; however, marked differences in disease progression and severity were identified between foci. HAT was characterised as a chronic haemo-lymphatic stage infection in Malawi, and as an acute disease with marked neurological impairment in Uganda. Within Uganda, a more rapid progression to meningo-encephaltic stage of infection was observed in one focus (Soroti) where HAT was characterised by early onset neurodysfunction; however, severe neuropathology was more frequently observed in patients in a second focus (Tororo).

Conclusions/Significance

We have established focus-specific HAT clinical phenotypes showing dramatic variations in disease severity and rate of stage progression both between northern and southern East African foci and between Ugandan foci. Understanding the contribution of host and parasite factors in causing such clinical diversity in T.b.rhodesiense HAT has much relevance for both improvement of disease management and the identification of new drug therapy.     

Population vulnerability and disability in Kenya's tsetse fly habitats

Background

Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT), also referred to as sleeping sickness, and African Animal Trypanosomaisis (AAT), known as nagana, are highly prevalent parasitic vector-borne diseases in sub-Saharan Africa. Humans acquire trypanosomiasis following the bite of a tsetse fly infected with the protozoa Trypanosoma brucei (T.b.) spp. –i.e., T.b. gambiense in West and Central Africa and T.b. rhodesiense in East and Southern Africa. Over the last decade HAT diagnostic capacity to estimate HAT prevalence has improved in active case-finding areas but enhanced passive surveillance programs are still lacking in much of rural sub-Saharan Africa.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This retrospective-cross-sectional study examined the use of national census data (1999) to estimate population vulnerability and disability in Kenya''s 7 tsetse belts to assess the potential of HAT-acquired infection in those areas. A multilevel study design estimated the likelihood of disability in individuals, nested within households, nested within tsetse fly habitats of varying levels of poverty. Residents and recent migrants of working age were studied. Tsetse fly''s impact on disability was conceptualised via two exposure pathways: directly from the bite of a pathogenic tsetse fly resulting in HAT infection or indirectly, as the potential for AAT takes land out of agricultural production and diseased livestock leads to livestock morbidity and mortality, contributing to nutritional deficiencies and poverty. Tsetse belts that were significantly associated with increased disability prevalence were identified and the direct and indirect exposure pathways were evaluated.

Conclusions/Significance

Incorporating reports on disability from the national census is a promising surveillance tool that may enhance future HAT surveillance programs in sub-Saharan Africa. The combined burdens of HAT and AAT and the opportunity costs of agricultural production in AAT areas are likely contributors to disability within tsetse-infested areas. Future research will assess changes in the spatial relationships between high tsetse infestation and human disability following the release of the Kenya 2009 census at the local level.     

Phase II Evaluation of Sensitivity and Specificity of PCR and NASBA Followed by Oligochromatography for Diagnosis of Human African Trypanosomiasis in Clinical Samples from D.R. Congo and Uganda

Background

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (NASBA) have been recently modified by coupling to oligochromatography (OC) for easy and fast visualisation of products. In this study we evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the PCR-OC and NASBA-OC for diagnosis of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense and Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT).

Methodology and Results

Both tests were evaluated in a case-control design on 143 HAT patients and 187 endemic controls from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Uganda. The overall sensitivity of PCR-OC was 81.8% and the specificity was 96.8%. The PCR-OC showed a sensitivity and specificity of 82.4% and 99.2% on the specimens from DRC and 81.3% and 92.3% on those from Uganda. NASBA-OC yielded an overall sensitivity of 90.2%, and a specificity of 98.9%. The sensitivity and specificity of NASBA-OC on the specimens from DRC was 97.1% and 99.2%, respectively. On the specimens from Uganda we observed a sensitivity of 84.0% and a specificity of 98.5%.

Conclusions/Significance

The tests showed good sensitivity and specificity for the T. b. gambiense HAT in DRC but rather a low sensitivity for T. b. rhodesiense HAT in Uganda.     

Clinical presentation of T.b. rhodesiense sleeping sickness in second stage patients from Tanzania and Uganda

Background

A wide spectrum of disease severity has been described for Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) due to Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense (T.b. rhodesiense), ranging from chronic disease patterns in southern countries of East Africa to an increase in virulence towards the north. However, only limited data on the clinical presentation of T.b. rhodesiense HAT is available. From 2006-2009 we conducted the first clinical trial program (Impamel III) in T.b. rhodesiense endemic areas of Tanzania and Uganda in accordance with international standards (ICH-GCP). The primary and secondary outcome measures were safety and efficacy of an abridged melarsoprol schedule for treatment of second stage disease. Based on diagnostic findings and clinical examinations at baseline we describe the clinical presentation of T.b. rhodesiense HAT in second stage patients from two distinct geographical settings in East Africa.

Methodology/Principal Findings:

138 second stage patients from Tanzania and Uganda were enrolled. Blood samples were collected for diagnosis and molecular identification of the infective trypanosomes, and T.b. rhodesiense infection was confirmed in all trial subjects. Significant differences in diagnostic parameters and clinical signs and symptoms were observed: the median white blood cell (WBC) count in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was significantly higher in Tanzania (134cells/mm³) than in Uganda (20cells/mm³; p<0.0001). Unspecific signs of infection were more commonly seen in Uganda, whereas neurological signs and symptoms specific for HAT dominated the clinical presentation of the disease in Tanzania. Co-infections with malaria and HIV did not influence the clinical presentation nor treatment outcomes in the Tanzanian study population.

Conclusions/Significance

We describe a different clinical presentation of second stage T.b. rhodesiense HAT in two distinct geographical settings in East Africa. In the ongoing absence of sensitive diagnostic tools and safe drugs to diagnose and treat second stage T.b. rhodesiense HAT an early identification of the disease is essential. A detailed understanding of the clinical presentation of T.b. rhodesiense HAT among health personnel and affected communities is vital, and awareness of regional characteristics, as well as implications of co-infections, can support decision making and differential diagnosis.     

Epilepsy in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Population-Based Surveys

Objective

We sought to evaluate the relationship between onchocerciasis prevalence and that of epilepsy using available data collected at community level.

Design

We conducted a systematic review and meta-regression of available data.

Data Sources

Electronic and paper records on subject area ever produced up to February 2008.

Review Methods

We searched for population-based studies reporting on the prevalence of epilepsy in communities for which onchocerciasis prevalence was available or could be estimated. Two authors independently assessed eligibility and study quality and extracted data. The estimation of point prevalence of onchocerciasis was standardized across studies using appropriate correction factors. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was then analyzed as a function of onchocerciasis endemicity using random-effect logistic models.

Results

Eight studies from west (Benin and Nigeria), central (Cameroon and Central African Republic) and east Africa (Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi) met the criteria for inclusion and analysis. Ninety-one communities with a total population of 79,270 individuals screened for epilepsy were included in the analysis. The prevalence of epilepsy ranged from 0 to 8.7% whereas that of onchocerciasis ranged from 5.2 to 100%. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was consistent with a logistic function of onchocerciasis prevalence, with epilepsy prevalence being increased, on average, by 0.4% for each 10% increase in onchocerciasis prevalence.

Conclusion

These results give further evidence that onchocerciasis is associated with epilepsy and that the disease burden of onchocerciasis might have to be re-estimated by taking into account this relationship.     

Quantifying the Association between Bovine and Human Trypanosomiasis in Newly Affected Sleeping Sickness Areas of Uganda

Background

Uganda has active foci of both chronic and acute HAT with the acute zoonotic form of disease classically considered to be restricted to southeast Uganda, while the focus of the chronic form of HAT was confined to the northwest of the country. Acute HAT has however been migrating from its traditional disease focus, spreading rapidly to new districts, a spread linked to movement of infected cattle following restocking. Cattle act as long-term reservoirs of human infective T. b. rhodesiense showing few signs of morbidity, yet posing a significant risk to human health. It is important to understand the relationship between infected cattle and infected individuals so that an appropriate response can be made to the risk posed to the community from animals infected with human pathogens in a village setting.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This paper examines the relationship between human T. b. rhodesiense infection and human infective and non-human T. brucei s.l. circulating in cattle at village level in Kaberamaido and Dokolo Districts, Uganda. The study was undertaken in villages that had reported a case of sleeping sickness in the six months prior to sample collection and those villages that had never reported a case of sleeping sickness.

Conclusions and Significance

The sleeping sickness status of the villages had a significant effect with higher odds of infection in cattle from case than from non-case villages for T. brucei s.l. (OR: 2.94, 95%CI: 1.38–6.24). Cattle age had a significant effect (p<0.001) on the likelihood of T. brucei s.l. infection within cattle: cattle between 18–36 months (OR: 3.51, 95%CI: 1.63–7.51) and cattle over 36 months (OR: 4.20, 95%CI: 2.08–8.67) had significantly higher odds of T. brucei s. l. infection than cattle under 18 months of age. Furthermore, village human sleeping sickness status had a significant effect (p<0.05) on the detection of T. b. rhodesiense in the village cattle herd, with significantly higher likelihood of T. b. rhodesiense in the village cattle of case villages (OR: 25, 95%CI: 1.2–520.71). Overall a higher than average T. brucei s.l. prevalence (>16.3%) in a village herd over was associated with significantly higher likelihood of T. b. rhodesiense being detected in a herd (OR: 25, 95%CI: 1.2–520.71).     

Prevalence of Livestock-Associated MRSA in Communities with High Pig-Densities in The Netherlands

Background

Recently, livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus CC398 has been discovered in animals, livestock farmers and retail meat. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the spread to persons not in direct contact with livestock in areas with a high density of pig farms.

Methodology/Principal Findings

With a random mailing in 3 selected municipalities in the Netherlands, adult persons were asked to fill in a questionnaire and to take a nose swab. In total, complete information was obtained on 583 persons. Of the 534 persons without livestock-contact, one was positive for MRSA (0.2%; 95% confidence interval, <0.01–1.2). Of the 49 persons who did indicate to be working at or living on a livestock farm, 13 were positive for MRSA (26.5%; 95% confidence interval, 16.1–40.4). All spa-types belonged to CC398.

Conclusions/Significance

Livestock-associated MRSA has a high prevalence in people with direct contact with animals. At this moment it has not spread from the farms into the community.     

Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics

Background

Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available.

Methodology and Findings

We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales.     

The unknown risk of vertical transmission in sleeping sickness--a literature review

Background

Children with human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) present with a range of generally non-specific symptoms. Late diagnosis is frequent with often tragic outcomes. Trypanosomes can infect the foetus by crossing the placenta. Unequivocal cases of congenital infection that have been reported include newborn babies of infected mothers who were diagnosed with HAT in the first 5 days of life and children of infected mothers who had never entered an endemic country themselves.

Methods

This review systematically summarizes the literature on the vertical transmission of HAT, to our knowledge for the first time. To approach the broader aspects of the subject, articles considering the epidemiology of childhood HAT and HAT in pregnancy were also included. The HAT guidelines and technical reports of the World Health Organisation, Médecins Sans Frontières, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, and of one endemic country were reviewed.

Results

Publications describing congenital HAT are very limited and consist only of single case reports and small case series. Generally it is assumed to be a rare event, but it has never been systematically investigated. In two publications, it is hypothesized that congenital HAT occurs more often than suspected. Not all guidelines and not all HAT literature mention this transmission route.

Conclusions

The risk of vertical transmission is unknown. Awareness of congenital HAT is insufficient, and as a result opportunities for an early diagnosis in newborns may be missed. All HAT guidelines and local HAT protocols should stress that in endemic areas pregnant women should be systematically checked for HAT and that newborns of HAT infected mothers should be assessed for the disease as soon as possible. Studies on the impact of HAT on fertility and pregnancy and studies on congenital HAT are long overdue.     

Local spatial and temporal processes of influenza in Pennsylvania, USA: 2003-2009

Background

Influenza is a contagious respiratory disease responsible for annual seasonal epidemics in temperate climates. An understanding of how influenza spreads geographically and temporally within regions could result in improved public health prevention programs. The purpose of this study was to summarize the spatial and temporal spread of influenza using data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Health''s influenza surveillance system.

Methodology and Findings

We evaluated the spatial and temporal patterns of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Pennsylvania, United States from six influenza seasons (2003–2009). Using a test of spatial autocorrelation, local clusters of elevated risk were identified in the South Central region of the state. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that lower monthly precipitation levels during the influenza season (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.94), fewer residents over age 64 (OR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.73) and fewer residents with more than a high school education (OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.95) were significantly associated with membership in this cluster. In addition, time series analysis revealed a temporal lag in the peak timing of the influenza B epidemic compared to the influenza A epidemic.

Conclusions

These findings illustrate a distinct spatial cluster of cases in the South Central region of Pennsylvania. Further examination of the regional transmission dynamics within these clusters may be useful in planning public health influenza prevention programs.     

Esophagitis in a high H. pylori prevalence area: severe disease is rare but concomitant peptic ulcer is frequent

Background

Few data are available on the prevalence of erosive and severe esophagitis in Western countries.

Objective

To retrospectively determine the prevalence and the factors predicting erosive esophagitis and severe esophagitis in a large series of endoscopies in Spain.

Design

Retrospective observational study. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine variables predicting severe esophagitis.

Setting

Databases of 29 Spanish endoscopy units.

Patients

Patients submitted to a diagnostic endoscopy during the year 2005.

Interventions

Retrospective review of the databases.

Main Outcome Measurements

Esophagitis severity (graded according to the Los Angeles classification) and associated endoscopic findings.

Results

Esophagitis was observed in 8.7% of the 93,699 endoscopies reviewed. Severe esophagitis (LA grade C or D) accounted for 22.5% of cases of the disease and was found in 1.9% of all endoscopies. Incidences of esophagitis and those of severe esophagitis were 86.2 and 18.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year respectively. Male sex (OR 1.89) and advanced age (OR 4.2 for patients in the fourth age quartile) were the only variables associated with severe esophagitis. Associated peptic ulcer was present in 8.8% of cases.

Limitations

Retrospective study, no data on individual proton pump inhibitors use.

Conclusions

Severe esophagitis is an infrequent finding in Spain. It occurs predominantly in males and in older individuals. Peptic ulcer disease is frequently associated with erosive esophagitis.     

HIV Infection in Fishing Communities of Lake Victoria Basin of Uganda – A Cross-Sectional Sero-Behavioral Survey

Background

Uganda''s first AIDS case was reported in a fishing village. Thereafter, due to varying risk factors, the epidemic spread heterogeneously to all regions, with some populations more affected. Given the recent rising trends in HIV infection in Uganda, it is crucial to know the risk factors in different populations. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and risk factors of HIV infection among fishing communities.

Methodology

A cross-sectional survey of 46 fishing communities was conducted in 2010. Following written consent, 911 randomly selected respondents age 15–59 years were interviewed and gave blood for HIV testing. HIV testing was conducted in the field and central laboratory according to national algorithm. Survey protocol was approved by the Science and Ethics Committee of Uganda Virus Research Institute, and cleared by Uganda National Council for Science and Technology. Data was captured by EPIINFO and statistical analysis done in SPSS.

Findings

Overall HIV prevalence was 22%; there was no difference by sex (x ² test, p>0.05). Association with HIV infection was determined by x ² test, p<0.5. Never married respondents had lower HIV prevalence (6.2%) than the ever married (24.1%). HIV prevalence was lower in younger respondents, age 15–24 years (10.8%) than in age group 25 years and above (26.1%). Muslims had lower HIV prevalence (14.4%) than Christians (25.2%). HIV prevalence was higher among respondents reporting 3 or more lifetime sexual partners (25.3%) than in those reporting less numbers (10.8%). HIV prevalence was higher among uncircumcised men (27%) than in circumcised men (11%). Multivariate analysis identified 4 risk factors for HIV infection; age, religion, ever condom use and number of lifetime sexual partners.

Conclusions

HIV prevalence in the surveyed communities was three times higher than of general population. This underscores the need for tailor made HIV combination prevention interventions targeting fishing communities.     

Accuracy of five algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis

Background

Algorithms to diagnose gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) are often complex due to the unsatisfactory sensitivity and/or specificity of available tests, and typically include a screening (serological), confirmation (parasitological) and staging component. There is insufficient evidence on the relative accuracy of these algorithms. This paper presents estimates of the accuracy of five algorithms used by past Médecins Sans Frontières programmes in the Republic of Congo, Southern Sudan and Uganda.

Methodology and Principal Findings

The sequence of tests in each algorithm was programmed into a probabilistic model, informed by distributions of the sensitivity, specificity and staging accuracy of each test, constructed based on a literature review. The accuracy of algorithms was estimated in a baseline scenario and in a worst-case scenario introducing various near worst-case assumptions. In the baseline scenario, sensitivity was estimated as 85–90% in all but one algorithm, with specificity above 99.9% except for the Republic of Congo, where CATT serology was used as independent confirmation test: here, positive predictive value (PPV) was estimated at <50% in realistic active screening prevalence scenarios. Furthermore, most algorithms misclassified about one third of true stage 1 cases as stage 2, and about 10% of true stage 2 cases as stage 1. In the worst-case scenario, sensitivity was 75–90% and PPV no more than 75% at 1% prevalence, with about half of stage 1 cases misclassified as stage 2.

Conclusions

Published evidence on the accuracy of widely used tests is scanty. Algorithms should carefully weigh the use of serology alone for confirmation, and could enhance sensitivity through serological suspect follow-up and repeat parasitology. Better evidence on the frequency of low-parasitaemia infections is needed. Simulation studies should guide the tailoring of algorithms to specific scenarios of HAT prevalence and availability of control tools.     

Quantifying the burden of rhodesiense sleeping sickness in Urambo District, Tanzania

Background

Human African trypanosomiasis is a severely neglected vector-borne disease that is always fatal if untreated. In Tanzania it is highly focalised and of major socio-economic and public health importance in affected communities.

Objectives

This study aimed to estimate the public health burden of rhodesiense HAT in terms of DALYs and financial costs in a highly disease endemic area of Tanzania using hospital records.

Materials and Methods

Data was obtained from 143 patients admitted in 2004 for treatment for HAT at Kaliua Health Centre, Urambo District. The direct medical and other indirect costs incurred by individual patients and by the health services were calculated. DALYs were estimated using methods recommended by the Global Burden of Disease Project as well as those used in previous rhodesiense HAT estimates assuming HAT under reporting of 45%, a figure specific for Tanzania.

Results

The DALY estimate for HAT in Urambo District with and without age-weighting were 215.7 (95% CI: 155.3–287.5) and 281.6 (95% CI: 209.1–362.6) respectively. When 45% under-reporting was included, the results were 622.5 (95% CI: 155.3–1098.9) and 978.9 (95% CI: 201.1–1870.8) respectively. The costs of treating 143 patients in terms of admission costs, diagnosis, hospitalization and sleeping sickness drugs were estimated at US$ 15,514, of which patients themselves paid US$ 3,673 and the health services US$ 11,841. The burden in terms of indirect non-medical costs for the 143 patients was estimated at US$ 9,781.

Conclusions

This study shows that HAT imposes a considerable burden on affected rural communities in Tanzania and stresses the urgent need for location- and disease-specific burden estimates tailored to particular rural settings in countries like Tanzania where a considerable number of infectious diseases are prevalent and, due to their focal nature, are often concentrated in certain locations where they impose an especially high burden.     

Syndromic Algorithms for Detection of Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis in South Sudan

Background

Active screening by mobile teams is considered the best method for detecting human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense but the current funding context in many post-conflict countries limits this approach. As an alternative, non-specialist health care workers (HCWs) in peripheral health facilities could be trained to identify potential cases who need testing based on their symptoms. We explored the predictive value of syndromic referral algorithms to identify symptomatic cases of HAT among a treatment-seeking population in Nimule, South Sudan.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Symptom data from 462 patients (27 cases) presenting for a HAT test via passive screening over a 7 month period were collected to construct and evaluate over 14,000 four item syndromic algorithms considered simple enough to be used by peripheral HCWs. For comparison, algorithms developed in other settings were also tested on our data, and a panel of expert HAT clinicians were asked to make referral decisions based on the symptom dataset. The best performing algorithms consisted of three core symptoms (sleep problems, neurological problems and weight loss), with or without a history of oedema, cervical adenopathy or proximity to livestock. They had a sensitivity of 88.9–92.6%, a negative predictive value of up to 98.8% and a positive predictive value in this context of 8.4–8.7%. In terms of sensitivity, these out-performed more complex algorithms identified in other studies, as well as the expert panel. The best-performing algorithm is predicted to identify about 9/10 treatment-seeking HAT cases, though only 1/10 patients referred would test positive.

Conclusions/Significance

In the absence of regular active screening, improving referrals of HAT patients through other means is essential. Systematic use of syndromic algorithms by peripheral HCWs has the potential to increase case detection and would increase their participation in HAT programmes. The algorithms proposed here, though promising, should be validated elsewhere.     

Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis.

Methods/Principal Findings

We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran''s I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ² = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran''s I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.     

A Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain

Background

Recently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed.

Conclusions/Significance

The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain.