A bayesian approach to the design of phase II clinical trials

A new strategy for the design of Phase II clinical trials is presented which utilizes the information provided by the prior distribution of the response rate, the costs of treating a patient, and the losses or gains resulting from the decisions taken at the completion of the study. A risk function is derived from which one may determine the optimal Bayes sampling plan. The decision theoretic/Bayesian approach is shown to provide a formal justification for the sample sizes often used in practice and shows the conditions under which such sample sizes are clearly inappropriate.     

Statistical properties of the traditional algorithm-based designs for phase I cancer clinical trials

Although there are several new designs for phase I cancer clinical trials including the continual reassessment method and accelerated titration design, the traditional algorithm-based designs, like the '3 + 3' design, are still widely used because of their practical simplicity. In this paper, we study some key statistical properties of the traditional algorithm-based designs in a general framework and derive the exact formulae for the corresponding statistical quantities. These quantities are important for the investigator to gain insights regarding the design of the trial, and are (i) the probability of a dose being chosen as the maximum tolerated dose (MTD); (ii) the expected number of patients treated at each dose level; (iii) target toxicity level (i.e. the expected dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) incidences at the MTD); (iv) expected DLT incidences at each dose level and (v) expected overall DLT incidences in the trial. Real examples of clinical trials are given, and a computer program to do the calculation can be found at the authors' website approximately linyo" locator-type="url">http://www2.umdnj.edu/ approximately linyo.     

Confirmatory seamless phase II/III clinical trials with hypotheses selection at interim: applications and practical considerations

Adaptive seamless phase II/III designs combine a phase II and a phase III study into one single confirmatory clinical trial. Several examples of such designs are presented, where the primary endpoint is binary, time-to-event or continuous. The interim adaptations considered include the selection of treatments and the selection of hypotheses related to a pre-specified subgroup of patients. Practical aspects concerning the planning and implementation of adaptive seamless confirmatory studies are also discussed.     

Manufacturing mesenchymal stromal cells for phase I clinical trials

Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) are multipotent progenitor cells capable of differentiating into adipocytes, osteoblasts and chondroblasts as well as secreting a vast array of soluble mediators. This potentially makes MSCs important mediators of a variety of therapeutic applications. They are actively under evaluation for immunomodulatory purposes such as graft-versus-host disease and Crohn’s disease as well as regenerative applications such as stroke and congestive heart failure. We report our method of generating clinical-grade MSCs together with suggestions gathered from manufacturing experience in our Good Manufacturing Practices facility.     

Endpoints,patient selection,and biomarkers in the design of clinical trials for cancer vaccines

Therapeutic cancer vaccines are an emerging and potentially effective treatment modality. Cancer vaccines are usually very well tolerated, with minimal toxicity compared with chemotherapy. Unlike conventional cytotoxic therapies, immunotherapy does not result in immediate tumor shrinkage but may alter growth rate and thus prolong survival. Multiple randomized controlled trials of various immunotherapeutic agents have shown a delayed separation in Kaplan–Meier survival curves, with no evidence of clinical benefit within the first 6–12 months of vaccine treatment. Overall survival benefit is seen in patients with lower disease burden who are not expected to die within those initial 6–12 months. The concept of improved overall survival without marked initial tumor reduction represents a significant shift from the current paradigms established by standard cytotoxic therapies. Future clinical studies of therapeutic vaccines should enroll patients with either lower tumor burden, more indolent disease or both, and must seek to identify early markers of clinical benefit that may correlate with survival. Until then, improved overall survival is the only clear, discriminatory endpoint for therapeutic vaccines as monotherapies.     

Dose-levels and first signs of efficacy in contemporary oncology phase 1 clinical trials

Purpose

Phase 1 trials play a crucial role in oncology by translating laboratory science into efficient therapies. Molecular targeted agents (MTA) differ from traditional cytotoxics in terms of both efficacy and toxicity profiles. Recent reports suggest that higher doses are not essential to produce the optimal anti-tumor effect. This study aimed to assess if MTA could achieve clinical benefit at much lower dose than traditional cytotoxics in dose seeking phase 1 trials.

Patients and Methods

We reviewed 317 recent phase 1 oncology trials reported in the literature between January 1997 and January 2009. First sign of efficacy, maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and their associated dose level were recorded in each trial.

Results

Trials investigating conventional cytotoxics alone, MTA alone and combination of both represented respectively 63.0% (201/317), 23.3% (74/317) and 13.7% (42/317) of all trials. The MTD was reached in 65.9% (209/317) of all trials and was mostly observed at the fifth dose level. First sign of efficacy was less frequently observed at the first three dose-levels for MTA as compared to conventional cytotoxics or combinations regimens (48.3% versus 63.2% and 61.3%). Sign of efficacy was observed in the same proportion whatever the treatment type (73–82%). MTD was less frequently established in trials investigating MTA alone (51.3%) or combinations (42.8%) as compared to conventional cytotoxic agents (75.6%).

Conclusion

First sign of efficacy was less frequently reported at the early dose-levels and MTD was less frequently reached in trials investigating molecular targeted therapy alone. Similar proportion of trials reported clinical benefit.     

Predictive probability early termination plans for phase II clinical trials

A phase II clinical trial is designed to gather data to help decide whether an experimental treatment has sufficient effectiveness to justify further study. In a one-arm trial with dichotomous outcome, we wish to test a simple null hypothesis on the Bernoulli parameter against a one-sided alternative in a sample of N patients. It is advisable to have a rule to terminate the trial early when evidence accumulates that the treatment is ineffective. Predictive probabilities based on the binomial distribution and beta and uniform prior distributions for the binomial parameter are found to be useful as the basis of group sequential designs. Size, power and average sample size for these designs are discussed. A process for the specification of an early termination plan, advice on the quantification of prior beliefs, and illustrative examples are included.     

Endpoints in the design of clinical trials for primary sclerosing cholangitis

Primary sclerosing cholangitis is an enigmatic disease affecting the bile ducts, eventually leading to liver failure necessitating liver transplantation in many cases. There is currently no therapy that has proven to halt disease progression. One of the reasons for this is the lack of proper endpoints to measure the effect of medical intervention on the course of the disease. Relevant clinical endpoints such as death or liver transplantation occur too infrequently in this orphan disease to be used as endpoints in phase 2 or 3 trials. It is therefore of utmost importance to identify appropriate surrogate endpoints that are reasonably likely to measure true clinical benefit. This article will discuss a number of surrogate endpoints that are likely candidates to serve this role. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Cholangiocytes in Health and Diseaseedited by Jesus Banales, Marco Marzioni, Nicholas LaRusso and Peter Jansen.     

Confidence limits for probability of response in multistage phase II clinical trials

Herson (1979, Biometrics 35, 775-783) has given a method for designing one-arm k-stage phase II clinical trials, which permits early termination of the trial if the treatment is apparently ineffective, while retaining acceptable levels of power and significance. This paper gives a method for calculating the confidence limits on the response proportion, conditional on a particular study design.     

Challenges in implementing model-based phase I designs in a grant-funded clinical trials unit

Background

For a clinical trials unit to run its first model-based, phase I trial, the statistician, chief investigator, and trial manager must all acquire a new set of skills. These trials also require a different approach to funding and data collection.

Challenges and discussion

From the statisticians’ viewpoint, we highlight what is needed to move from running rule-based, early-phase trials to running a model-based phase I study as we experienced it in our trials unit located in the United Kingdom. Our example is CHARIOT, a dose-finding trial using the time-to-event continual reassessment method. It consists of three stages and aims to discover the maximum tolerated dose of the combination of radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and the ataxia telangiectasia mutated Rad3-related inhibitor M6620 (previously known as VX-970) in patients with oesophageal cancer. We present the challenges we faced in designing this trial and how we overcame them as a way of demystifying the conduct of a model-based trial in a grant-funded clinical trials unit.

Conclusions

Although we appreciate that undertaking model-based trials requires additional time and effort, they are feasible to implement and, once suitable tools such as guiding publications and document templates become available, the design and set-up process will be easier and more efficient.

     

A two-stage design for choosing among several experimental treatments and a control in clinical trials

In clinical trials where several experimental treatments are of interest, the goal may be viewed as identification of the best of these and comparison of that treatment to a standard control therapy. However, it is undesirable to commit patients to a large-scale comparative trial of a new regimen without evidence that its therapeutic success rate is acceptably high. We propose a two-stage design in which patients are first randomized among the experimental treatments, and the single treatment having the highest observed success rate is identified. If this highest rate falls below a fixed cutoff then the trial is terminated. Otherwise, the "best" new treatment is compared to the control at a second stage. Locally optimal values of the cutoff and the stage-1 and stage-2 sample sizes are derived by minimizing expected total sample size. The design has both high power and high probability of terminating early when no experimental treatment is superior to the control. Numerical results for implementing the design are presented, and comparison to Dunnett's (1984, in Design of Experiments: Ranking and Selection, T. J. Santner and A. C. Tamhane (eds), 47-66; New York: Marcel Dekker) optimal one-stage procedure is made.     

Next-generation sequencing for cancer diagnostics: a practical perspective

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is arguably one of the most significant technological advances in the biological sciences of the last 30 years. The second generation sequencing platforms have advanced rapidly to the point that several genomes can now be sequenced simultaneously in a single instrument run in under two weeks. Targeted DNA enrichment methods allow even higher genome throughput at a reduced cost per sample. Medical research has embraced the technology and the cancer field is at the forefront of these efforts given the genetic aspects of the disease. World-wide efforts to catalogue mutations in multiple cancer types are underway and this is likely to lead to new discoveries that will be translated to new diagnostic, prognostic and therapeutic targets. NGS is now maturing to the point where it is being considered by many laboratories for routine diagnostic use. The sensitivity, speed and reduced cost per sample make it a highly attractive platform compared to other sequencing modalities. Moreover, as we identify more genetic determinants of cancer there is a greater need to adopt multi-gene assays that can quickly and reliably sequence complete genes from individual patient samples. Whilst widespread and routine use of whole genome sequencing is likely to be a few years away, there are immediate opportunities to implement NGS for clinical use. Here we review the technology, methods and applications that can be immediately considered and some of the challenges that lie ahead.     

A Bayesian analysis of the two-period crossover design for clinical trials

Statisticians have been critical of the use of the two-period crossover designs for clinical trials because the estimate of the treatment difference is biased when the carryover effects of the two treatments are not equal. In the standard approach, if the null hypothesis of equal carryover effects is not rejected, data from both periods are used to estimate and test for treatment differences; if the null hypothesis is rejected, data from the first period alone are used. A Bayesian analysis based on the Bayes factor against unequal carryover effects is given. Although this Bayesian approach avoids the "all-or-nothing" decision inherent in the standard approach, it recognizes that with small trials it is difficult to provide unequivocal evidence that the carryover effects of the two treatments are equal, and thus that the interpretation of the difference between treatment effects is highly dependent on a subjective assessment of the reality or not of equal carryover effects.     

Ambra1 in cancer: implications for clinical oncology

Apoptosis - Activating molecule in Beclin-1-regulated autophagy protein 1 (Ambra1) is well known to mediate the autophagy process and promote the formation of autophagosomes. In addition, Ambra1 is...