Do Decapod Crustaceans Have Nociceptors for Extreme pH?

Background

Nociception is the physiological detection of noxious stimuli. Because of its obvious importance, nociception is expected to be widespread across animal taxa and to trigger robust behaviours reliably. Nociception in invertebrates, such as crustaceans, is poorly studied.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Three decapod crustacean species were tested for nociceptive behaviour: Louisiana red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), white shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus), and grass shrimp (Palaemonetes sp.). Applying sodium hydroxide, hydrochloric acid, or benzocaine to the antennae caused no change in behaviour in the three species compared to controls. Animals did not groom the stimulated antenna, and there was no difference in movement of treated individuals and controls. Extracellular recordings of antennal nerves in P. clarkii revealed continual spontaneous activity, but no neurons that were reliably excited by the application of concentrated sodium hydroxide or hydrochloric acid.

Conclusions/Significance

Previously reported responses to extreme pH are either not consistently evoked across species or were mischaracterized as nociception. There was no behavioural or physiological evidence that the antennae contained specialized nociceptors that responded to pH.     

Present,past and future of the European rock fern Asplenium fontanum: combining distribution modelling and population genetics to study the effect of climate change on geographic range and genetic diversity

Background and Aims

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic range of many plant species dramatically. Predicting this response will be critical to managing the conservation of plant resources and the effects of invasive species. The aim of this study was to predict the response of temperate homosporous ferns to climate change.

Methods

Genetic diversity and changes in distribution range were inferred for the diploid rock fern Asplenium fontanum along a South–North transect, extending from its putative last glacial maximum (LGM) refugia in southern France towards southern Germany and eastern-central France. This study reconciles observations from distribution models and phylogeographic analyses derived from plastid and nuclear diversity.

Key Results

Genetic diversity distribution and niche modelling propose that genetic diversity accumulates in the LGM climate refugium in southern France with the formation of a diversity gradient reflecting a slow, post-LGM range expansion towards the current distribution range. Evidence supports the fern''s preference for outcrossing, contradicting the expectation that homosporous ferns would populate new sites by single-spore colonization. Prediction of climate and distribution range change suggests that a dramatic loss of range and genetic diversity in this fern is possible. The observed migration is best described by the phalanx expansion model.

Conclusions

The results suggest that homosporous ferns reproducing preferentially by outcrossing accumulate genetic diversity primarily in LGM climate refugia and may be threatened if these areas disappear due to global climate change.     

Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

Background

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species'' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming.

Conclusions/Significance

Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change.     

Predatory functional response and prey choice identify predation differences between native/invasive and parasitised/unparasitised crayfish

Background

Invasive predators may change the structure of invaded communities through predation and competition with native species. In Europe, the invasive signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus is excluding the native white clawed crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes.

Methodology and Principal Findings

This study compared the predatory functional responses and prey choice of native and invasive crayfish and measured impacts of parasitism on the predatory strength of the native species. Invasive crayfish showed a higher (>10%) prey (Gammarus pulex) intake rate than (size matched) natives, reflecting a shorter (16%) prey handling time. The native crayfish also showed greater selection for crustacean prey over molluscs and bloodworm, whereas the invasive species was a more generalist predator. A. pallipes parasitised by the microsporidian parasite Thelohania contejeani showed a 30% reduction in prey intake. We suggest that this results from parasite-induced muscle damage, and this is supported by a reduced (38%) attack rate and increased (30%) prey handling time.

Conclusions and Significance

Our results indicate that the per capita (i.e., functional response) difference between the species may contribute to success of the invader and extinction of the native species, as well as decreased biodiversity and biomass in invaded rivers. In addition, the reduced predatory strength of parasitized natives may impair their competitive abilities, facilitating exclusion by the invader.     

Climate Change and American Bullfrog Invasion: What Could We Expect in South America?

Background

Biological invasion and climate change pose challenges to biodiversity conservation in the 21^st century. Invasive species modify ecosystem structure and functioning and climatic changes are likely to produce invasive species'' range shifts pushing some populations into protected areas. The American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) is one of the hundred worst invasive species in the world. Native from the southeast of USA, it has colonized more than 75% of South America where it has been reported as a highly effective predator, competitor and vector of amphibian diseases.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We modeled the potential distribution of the bullfrog in its native range based on different climate models and green-house gases emission scenarios, and projected the results onto South America for the years of 2050 and 2080. We also overlaid projected models onto the South American network of protected areas. Our results indicate a slight decrease in potential suitable area for bullfrog invasion, although protected areas will become more climatically suitable. Therefore, invasion of these sites is forecasted.

Conclusion/Significance

We provide new evidence supporting the vulnerability of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot to bullfrog invasion and call attention to optimal future climatic conditions of the Andean-Patagonian forest, eastern Paraguay, and northwestern Bolivia, where invasive populations have not been found yet. We recommend several management and policy strategies to control bullfrog invasion and argue that these would be possible if based on appropriate articulation among government agencies, NGOs, research institutions and civil society.     

'Caribbean Creep' chills out: climate change and marine invasive species

Background

New marine invasions have been recorded in increasing numbers along the world''s coasts due in part to the warming of the oceans and the ability of many invasive marine species to tolerate a broader thermal range than native species. Several marine invertebrate species have invaded the U.S. southern and mid-Atlantic coast from the Caribbean and this poleward range expansion has been termed ‘Caribbean Creep’. While models have predicted the continued decline of global biodiversity over the next 100 years due to global climate change, few studies have examined the episodic impacts of prolonged cold events that could impact species range expansions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A pronounced cold spell occurred in January 2010 in the U.S. southern and mid-Atlantic coast and resulted in the mortality of several terrestrial and marine species. To experimentally test whether cold-water temperatures may have caused the disappearance of one species of the ‘Caribbean Creep’ we exposed the non-native crab Petrolisthes armatus to different thermal treatments that mimicked abnormal and severe winter temperatures. Our findings indicate that Petrolisthes armatus cannot tolerate prolonged and extreme cold temperatures (4–6°C) and suggest that aperiodic cold winters may be a critical ‘reset’ mechanism that will limit the range expansion of other ‘Caribbean Creep’ species.

Conclusions/Significance

We suggest that temperature ‘aberrations’ such as ‘cold snaps’ are an important and overlooked part of climate change. These climate fluctuations should be accounted for in future studies and models, particularly with reference to introduced subtropical and tropical species and predictions of both rates of invasion and rates of unidirectional geographic expansion.     

Potential geographic distribution of brown marmorated stink bug invasion (Halyomorpha halys)

Background

The Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species with a rapidly expanding range in North America and Europe. In the US, it is a household pest and also caused unprecedented damage to agriculture crops. Exploring its climatic limits and estimating its potential geographic distribution can provide critical information for management strategies.

Methodology/Principals

We used direct climate comparisons to explore the climatic niche occupied by native and invasive populations of BMSB. Ecological niche modelings based on the native range were used to anticipate the potential distribution of BMSB worldwide. Conversely, niche models based on the introduced range were used to locate the original invasive propagates in Asia. Areas with high invasion potential were identified by two niche modeling algorithms (i.e., Maxent and GARP).

Conclusions/Significance

Reduced dimensionality of environmental space improves native model transferability in the invade area. Projecting models from invasive population back to native distributional areas offers valuable information on the potential source regions of the invasive populations. Our models anticipated successfully the current disjunct distribution of BMSB in the US. The original propagates are hypothesized to have come from northern Japan or western Korea. High climate suitable areas at risk of invasion include latitudes between 30°–50° including northern Europe, northeastern North America, southern Australia and the North Island of New Zealand. Angola in Africa and Uruguay in South America also showed high climate suitability.     

Warming increases the spread of an invasive thistle

Background

Global warming and shifted precipitation regimes increasingly affect species abundances and distributions worldwide. Despite a large literature on species'' physiological, phenological, growth, and reproductive responses to such climate change, dispersal is rarely examined. Our study aims to test whether the dispersal ability of a non-native, wind-dispersed plant species is affected by climate change, and to quantify the ramifications for future invasion spread rates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We experimentally increased temperature and precipitation in a two-cohort, factorial field study (n = 80). We found an overwhelming warming effect on plant life history: warming not only improved emergence, survival, and reproduction of the thistle Carduus nutans, but also elevated plant height, which increased seed dispersal distances. Using spatial population models, we demonstrate that these empirical warming effects on demographic vital rates, and dispersal parameters, greatly exacerbate spatial spread. Predicted levels of elevated winter precipitation decreased seed production per capitulum, but this only slightly offset the warming effect on spread. Using a spread rate decomposition technique (c*-LTRE), we also found that plant height-mediated changes in dispersal contribute most to increased spread rate under climate change.

Conclusions/Significance

We found that both dispersal and spread of this wind-dispersed plant species were strongly impacted by climate change. Dispersal responses to climate change can improve, or diminish, a species'' ability to track climate change spatially, and should not be overlooked. Methods that combine both demographic and dispersal responses thus will be an invaluable complement to projections of suitable habitat under climate change.     

Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species

Background

Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species.

Methodology

We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS) using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed “weather” models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality) from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950–2008). These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year) averages of the same climatic variables.

Conclusions

Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species'' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.     

Projected Future Distributions of Vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under Climate Change Scenarios

Background

Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.

Conclusions/Significance

The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change.     

Lack of phylogeographic structure in the freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa suggests global dispersal

Background

Free-living microorganisms have long been assumed to have ubiquitous distributions with little biogeographic signature because they typically exhibit high dispersal potential and large population sizes. However, molecular data provide contrasting results and it is far from clear to what extent dispersal limitation determines geographic structuring of microbial populations. We aimed to determine biogeographical patterns of the bloom-forming freshwater cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa. Being widely distributed on a global scale but patchily on a regional scale, this prokaryote is an ideal model organism to study microbial dispersal and biogeography.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The phylogeography of M. aeruginosa was studied based on a dataset of 311 rDNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences sampled from six continents. Richness of ITS sequences was high (239 ITS types were detected). Genetic divergence among ITS types averaged 4% (maximum pairwise divergence was 13%). Preliminary analyses revealed nearly completely unresolved phylogenetic relationships and a lack of genetic structure among all sequences due to extensive homoplasy at multiple hypervariable sites. After correcting for this, still no clear phylogeographic structure was detected, and no pattern of isolation by distance was found on a global scale. Concomitantly, genetic differentiation among continents was marginal, whereas variation within continents was high and was mostly shared with all other continents. Similarly, no genetic structure across climate zones was detected.

Conclusions/Significance

The high overall diversity and wide global distribution of common ITS types in combination with the lack of phylogeographic structure suggest that intercontinental dispersal of M. aeruginosa ITS types is not rare, and that this species might have a truly cosmopolitan distribution.     

Oeceoclades maculata, an alien tropical orchid in a Caribbean rainforest

Background and Aims

Undisturbed forest habitat can be relatively impenetrable to invasive, non-native species. Orchids are not commonly regarded as invasive, but some species have become invasive and these generally depend on habitat disturbance. One of the most aggressive orchids is Oeceoclades maculata, a terrestrial species with remarkable ecological amplitude. Originally from tropical Africa, it is now widespread in the neotropics. By associating its local distribution with land-use history and habitat characteristics, it was determined whether O. maculata is dependent on habitat disturbance. It was also investigated whether this exotic orchid occupies the same habitat space as two sympatric native species.

Methods

Six 10 m × 500 m transects were censused in June 2007 on the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot, located in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico. The plot had been mapped for historical land use, topography and soil type.

Key Results

Oeceoclades maculata was the most abundant of three orchid species surveyed and was found in all four historical cover classes. In cover class 3 (50–80 % forest cover in 1936), 192 of 343 plants were found at a density of 0·48 plants per 5 × 5 m subplot. Over 93 % of the 1200 subplots surveyed were composed of Zarzal or Cristal soil types, and O. maculata was nearly evenly distributed in both. The orchid was most common on relatively flat terrain. The distribution and abundance of two sympatric orchid species were negatively associated with that of the invasive species.

Conclusions

Oeceoclades maculata does penetrate ‘old growth’ forest but is most abundant in areas with moderate levels of past disturbance. Soil type makes little difference, but slope of terrain can be important. The negative association between O. maculata and native species may reflect differences in habitat requirements or a negative interaction perhaps at the mycorrhizal level.Key words: Oeceoclades maculata, Wullschlaegelia calcarata, Prescottia stachyodes, Orchidaceae, land-use history, tropical forest disturbance, terrestrial orchids, invasive species, Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, forest recovery, Caribbean     

Genome size reduction can trigger rapid phenotypic evolution in invasive plants

Background and Aims

The study of rapid evolution in invasive species has highlighted the fundamental role played by founder events, emergence of genetic novelties through recombination and rapid response to new selective pressures. However, whether rapid adaptation of introduced species can be driven by punctual changes in genome organization has received little attention. In plants, variation in genome size, i.e. variation in the amount of DNA per monoploid set of chromosomes through loss or gain of repeated DNA sequences, is known to influence a number of physiological, phenological and life-history features. The present study investigated whether change in genome size has contributed to the evolution of greater potential of vegetative growth in invasive populations of an introduced grass.

Methods

The study was based on the recent demonstration that invasive genotypes of reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) occurring in North America have emerged from recombination between introduced European strains. The genome sizes of more than 200 invasive and native genotypes were measured and their genome size was related to their phenotypic traits measured in a common glasshouse environment. Population genetics data were used to infer phylogeographical relationships between study populations, and the evolutionary history of genome size within the study species was inferred.

Key Results

Invasive genotypes had a smaller genome than European native genotypes from which they are derived. This smaller genome size had phenotypic effects that increased the species'' invasive potential, including a higher early growth rate, due to a negative relationship between genome size and rate of stem elongation. Based on inferred phylogeographical relationships of invasive and native populations, evolutionary models were consistent with a scenario of genome reduction by natural selection during the invasion process, rather than a scenario of stochastic change.

Conclusions

Punctual reduction in genome size could cause rapid changes in key phenotypic traits that enhance invasive ability. Although the generality of genome size variation leading to phenotypic evolution and the specific genomic mechanisms involved are not known, change in genome size may constitute an important but previously under-appreciated mechanism of rapid evolutionary change that may promote evolutionary novelties over short time scales.Key words: Biological invasion, evolutionary models, genome size, Phalaris arundinacea, quantile regression, relative growth rate, rapid evolution     

Ecological significance of seed desiccation sensitivity in Quercus ilex

Background and Aims

Several widespread tree species of temperate forests, such as species of the genus Quercus, produce recalcitrant (desiccation-sensitive) seeds. However, the ecological significance of seed desiccation sensitivity in temperate regions is largely unknown. Do seeds of such species suffer from drying during the period when they remain on the soil, between shedding in autumn and the return of conditions required for germination in spring?

Methods

To test this hypothesis, the Mediterranean holm oak (Quercus ilex) forest was used as a model system. The relationships between the climate in winter, the characteristics of microhabitats, acorn morphological traits, and the water status and viability of seeds after winter were then investigated in 42 woodlands sampled over the entire French distribution of the species.

Key Results

The percentages of germination and normal seedling development were tightly linked to the water content of seeds after the winter period, revealing that in situ desiccation is a major cause of mortality. The homogeneity of seed response to drying suggests that neither intraspecific genetic variation nor environmental conditions had a significant impact on the level of desiccation sensitivity of seeds. In contrast, the water and viability status of seeds at the time of collection were dramatically influenced by cumulative rainfall and maximum temperatures during winter. A significant effect of shade and of the type of soil cover was also evidenced.

Conclusions

The findings establish that seed desiccation sensitivity is a key functional trait which may influence the success of recruitment in temperate recalcitrant seed species. Considering that most models of climate change predict changes in rainfall and temperature in the Mediterranean basin, the present work could help foresee changes in the distribution of Q. ilex and other oak species, and hence plant community alterations.     

Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species

Background

Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We propose a systematic way to forecast patterns of future energy development and calculate impacts to species using spatially-explicit predictive modeling techniques to estimate oil and gas potential and create development build-out scenarios by seeding the landscape with oil and gas wells based on underlying potential. We illustrate our approach for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7–19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area.

Conclusions/Significance

Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation.     

Genetic evidence for predominantly hydrochoric gene flow in the invasive riparian plant Impatiens glandulifera (Himalayan balsam)

Background and Aims

Riparian systems are prone to invasion by alien plant species. The spread of invasive riparian plants may be facilitated by hydrochory, the transport of seeds by water, but while ecological studies have highlighted the possible role of upstream source populations in the establishment and persistence of stands of invasive riparian plant species, population genetic studies have as yet not fully addressed the potential role of hydrochoric dispersal in such systems.

Methods

A population genetics approach based on a replicated bifurcate sampling design is used to test hypotheses consistent with patterns of unidirectional, linear gene flow expected under hydrochoric dispersal of the invasive riparian plant Impatiens glandulifera in two contrasting river systems.

Key results

A significant increase in levels of genetic diversity downstream was observed, consistent with the accumulation of propagules from upstream source populations, and strong evidence was found for organization of this diversity between different tributaries, reflecting the dendritic organization of the river systems studied.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that hydrochory, rather than anthropogenic dispersal, is primarily responsible for the spread of I. glandulifera in these river systems, and this is relevant to potential approaches to the control of invasive riparian plant species.     

Niche conservatism and the potential for the crayfish Procambarus clarkii to invade South America

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Australia's Dengue Risk Driven by Human Adaptation to Climate Change

Background

The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region''s urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Having collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegypti''s distribution under today''s climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is mediated more by human activity than by climate. Synthesis of this data with dengue transmission climate limits in Australia derived from historical dengue epidemics suggested that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks in Australia could result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti which would present a risk of dengue transmission in most major cities during their warm summer months.

Conclusions/Significance

In the debate of the role climate change will play in the future range of dengue in Australia, we conclude that the increased risk of an Ae. aegypti range expansion in Australia would be due not directly to climate change but rather to human adaptation to the current and forecasted regional drying through the installation of large domestic water storing containers. The expansion of this efficient dengue vector presents both an emerging and re-emerging disease risk to Australia. Therefore, if the installation and maintenance of domestic water storage tanks is not tightly controlled, Ae. aegypti could expand its range again and cohabit with the majority of Australia''s population, presenting a high potential dengue transmission risk during our warm summers.     

Selecting Biological Meaningful Environmental Dimensions of Low Discrepancy among Ranges to Predict Potential Distribution of Bean Plataspid Invasion

Background

The Bean plataspid (Megacopta cribraria) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), native to Asia, is becoming an invasive species in North America; its potential spread to soybean producing areas in the US is of great concern. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been used increasingly in predicting invasive species'' potential distribution; however, poor niche model transferability was sometimes reported, leading to the artifactual conclusion of niche differentiation during species'' invasion.

Methodology/Principals

We aim to improve the geographical transferability of ENM via environmental variable selection to predict the potential distribution of Bean plataspid invasion. Sixteen environmental dimensions between native and introduced Bean plataspid populations were compared, and classified into two datasets with different degrees of discrepancy by the interquartile range (IQR) overlap in boxplot. Niche models based on these two datasets were compared in native model prediction and invading model projection. Classical niche model approaches (i.e., model calibrated on native range and transferred outside) were used to anticipate the potential distribution of Bean plataspid invasion.

Conclusions/Significance

Niche models based on the two datasets showed little difference in native model predictions; however, when projecting onto the introduced area, models based on the environmental datasets showing low discrepancy among ranges recovered good model transferability in predicting the newly established population of Bean plataspid in the US. Recommendations were made for selecting biological meaningful environmental dimensions of low discrepancy among ranges to improve niche model transferability among these geographically separated areas. Outside of its native range, areas with invasion potential include the southeastern US in North America, southwestern Europe, southeastern South America, southern Africa, and the eastern coastal Australia.